July 5, 2026 · hormuz-tracker hormuz crisis energy geopolitics · raw markdown

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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-07-05 · Cycle 3 (C202)

War Day: 128 | Ceasefire Day: 18 | 60-day-clock: Day 18 of 60 (Jun 18 → Aug 18) | 30-day-blockade-lift-clock: Day 18 of 30 (Jun 18 → Jul 18) | Cycle: C202 (c3 of 2026-07-05, Sun-late-evening → Mon-Asia-open transition; ~4-8h delta from C201 evening).

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP unreachable across C200/C201/C202. Reduced-web-sweep against C201 baseline; delta window narrow (~4-8h into Mon Jul-6 pre-dawn UTC / Mon-Asia-open).

Baseline: C201 / 2026-07-05 Sun-evening-UTC (KHAMENEI-FUNERAL-DAY-2-UNDERWAY-MOJTABA-STILL-ABSENT + TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTS-FEE-PLAN + BLOOMBERG-JUL-4-8-SHIP-U-TURN + DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-JUL-9-FIRM + INDIA-25-DAYS-THIRD-LENS + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-INCIDENT-WEEKEND + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRED + AXIOS-JUL-4/5-NULL).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-07-05 C202, Sun-late-eve/Mon-Asia-open transition; ~4-8h delta from C201): C202 = 🔴🔴 KHAMENEI FUNERAL DAY 3 (JUL 6 MON) 8AM-PRAYER SCHEDULED PER IRGC-TEHRAN-COMMANDER HASSANZADEH — PRAYER LEADER NOT YET ANNOUNCED per CBS/PBS confirms; either religious-figure or family-member — succession-legitimacy-tier faces first-visible-test-at-dawn + 🔴🔴 THREE KHAMENEI SONS APPEAR AT MOURNING JUL 5 IN TEHRAN — BUT MOJTABA STILL ABSENT per CNN Jul-5-live — intra-family-visibility bifurcation confirms: three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible-33rd-week; sons appeared publicly Day-2, Mojtaba did not — succession-ritual-gap DEEPENS beyond legitimacy-question into visible-family-visibility-asymmetry + 🔴 PERFORMER CALLED FOR TRUMP'S DEATH AT KHAMENEI FUNERAL per WaPo Jul-5 — hostile-rhetoric-tier-from-official-Iran-stage NEW; risk-signal of funeral-emotional-momentum leaking into anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure + 🟢 TRUMP MOUNT RUSHMORE Jul-4-5: "IRAN IS DYING TO SETTLE... WE GAVE THEM A WEEK OFF FOR A FUNERAL, BECAUSE WE'RE NICE" per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN — week-off framing = restraint-signal + diplomacy-anchor; harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral-firm from C201; Trump-restraint-tier positive-tone-preserved despite anti-Trump-rhetoric from Iran-stage + 🟢 WRIGHT CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER DRAWDOWN + 39.5M BBL REMAINING IN PROGRAM + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION FROM BIG HILL/BRYAN MOUND per thewellnews.com — SPR silent-tier confirms mechanically-continuing but no fresh second-round; decision-window-restraint-tier extends through weekend + 🟢 KRG HOSTANI NAMES 200K+ BPD PRESERVATION VIA INTERIM PROTOCOL per Turkish Minute — Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands crystallizes; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carries + 🟢 HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR EXPLICIT JUL-3: 17-IN TANKER-GAS-HEAVY (12 OF 17) + 22-OUT LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW per Wikipedia+argus — corridor-bifurcation "no-crude-departed" EXPLICIT — deepens 7DMA-crude-flow-near-zero structural signal + 🟢 UAE 3.9 MB/D + SAUDI RAMP + TOTAL DAILY FLOW ABOVE 10 MB/D PER TE — bypass+non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms + ⚠️ HARDLINE LEGISLATORS "POSTPONED PROTEST" per WSJ — Parliament-deferral dynamics extend "after Khamenei burial next month" (Jul 9 → post-Mashhad) — deferral-through-funeral tier structurally-locked + 🟢 NO UKMTO/MARAD FRESH INCIDENT JUL 5-6 carry-extends clean-weekend into Mon-Asia-transit + 🔴 HOUTHI-JUL-1 4-CLAIMS 144-152H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED — 7-DAY THRESHOLD MON-EVE (~20H OUT) locks harder toward empirical-null-lock. Eight material C201→C202 datapoints refine ~4-8h narrow-cycle: (1) 🔴🔴 FUNERAL-DAY-3 8AM-PRAYER-SCHEDULED + PRAYER-LEADER-STILL-UNKNOWN. (2) 🔴🔴 THREE-SONS-APPEAR + MOJTABA-STILL-INVISIBLE — visible-asymmetry-tier NEW. (3) 🔴 PERFORMER-CALLS-FOR-TRUMP-DEATH from official-stage. (4) 🟢 TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-FRAMING = restraint-anchor. (5) 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" = SPR-silent confirms mechanically continuing. (6) 🟢 KRG-HOSTANI-200K+ BPD protocol confirmation. (7) 🟢 CORRIDOR "NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-THIS-WINDOW" explicit. (8) 🟢 UAE-3.9-MB/D + SAUDI-RAMP + 10-MB/D-TOTAL-FLOW — non-Iran-Gulf recovery. Net: C202 IS THE ~4-8H NARROW-WINDOW HANDOFF-TO-MON-ASIA-OPEN. Kinetic-tier extends clean into Day-3-funeral-approach; substance-tier holds C201-quadruple-veto (Trump-international-waters + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-anti-fee) unchanged; succession-tier DEEPENS with visible-three-sons-vs-invisible-Mojtaba asymmetry; hostile-rhetoric-tier NEW from official-Iran-stage (performer-Trump-death); Trump-restraint-tier POSITIVE with week-off-framing; SPR-decision-window-silent-tier CONFIRMS via Wright-CNBC "no plan right now"; corridor "no-crude-departed" bifurcation EXPLICIT via wiki+argus. Doha-Round-2-post-funeral-firm carries. Iraq-Turkey pipeline-soft-lands carries with 200K+ bpd confirmed. C201-TRIPLE-VECTOR-WINDOW-STATUS: Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 approaches (Day-3 tomorrow); Parliament-vote-deferral EXTENDS "after burial next month" per WSJ; SPR-second-round decision-window-restraint-tier CONFIRMS Wright silent; none resolved. Critical 0-12h to Mon-Asia-open: (a) Mon-8am Tehran prayer-leader identity (religious-figure vs family-member vs none); (b) any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3 dawn; (c) Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under Trump-week-off-framing vs Iran-hostile-rhetoric-tier; (d) Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning; (e) any Trump Truth-Social response to performer-death-call; (f) any Katz/Israel response to Iran-anti-Trump-rhetoric or three-sons-appearance; (g) Ghalibaf statement-at-Day-3 or Araghchi funeral-remarks; (h) Iraq-Turkey formal-signing pre-Jul-27 (22 days out); (i) Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor into weekly-open; (j) UKMTO/MARAD Mon incident-emergence; (k) Al Hamla → China arrival empirical-confirmation still-pending 4-day; (l) any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence post-Day-3-prayers.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C201 → C202 DELTAS)

🔴🔴 FUNERAL DAY 3 MON JUL 6: 8AM TEHRAN PRAYER SCHEDULED PER HASSANZADEH (IRGC-TEHRAN-COMMANDER) — PRAYER LEADER STILL NOT ANNOUNCED per CBS/PBS carry — either religious-figure or family-member; first-visible-test-of-succession-legitimacy at Mon-dawn.

🔴🔴 THREE OF KHAMENEI'S SONS APPEAR AT MOURNING JUL 5 — BUT NOT MOJTABA per CNN Jul-5-live — intra-family visible-asymmetry NEW: three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-still-invisible; succession-ritual-gap deepens beyond simple absence into visible-family-visibility-asymmetry-tier.

🔴 PERFORMER CALLED FOR TRUMP'S DEATH AT KHAMENEI FUNERAL JUL 4-5 per WaPo — hostile-rhetoric-tier from official-Iran-stage NEW; funeral-emotional-momentum risk-signal for anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure post-Jul-9.

🟢 TRUMP MOUNT RUSHMORE: "IRAN IS DYING TO SETTLE... WE GAVE THEM A WEEK OFF FOR A FUNERAL, BECAUSE WE'RE NICE" per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN — week-off framing = restraint-signal + diplomacy-anchor; Trump-restraint-tier positive-tone-preserved.

🟢 WRIGHT CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER DRAWDOWN per thewellnews carry — SPR silent-tier CONFIRMS; 39.5M bbl remaining in original program; 40M-bbl new solicitation from Big Hill/Bryan Mound = mechanical-continuation, NOT fresh second-round drawdown.

🟢 KRG HOSTANI: 200K+ BPD PRESERVATION VIA INTERIM PROTOCOL per Turkish Minute — Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands crystallizes; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry; K-C formal-expiry Day 22 out.

🟢 HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR EXPLICIT JUL-3: TANKER-GAS-HEAVY INBOUND (12 OF 17) + LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY OUTBOUND / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW per Wikipedia+argus — corridor bifurcation "no-crude-departed" EXPLICIT — deepens 7DMA-crude-near-zero structural signal from C201.

🟢 UAE 3.9 MB/D + SAUDI-RAMP + TOTAL DAILY FLOW ABOVE 10 MB/D THROUGH HORMUZ per TE — non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms; bypass+non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier maintains oil-market containment.

⚠️ HARDLINE LEGISLATORS "POSTPONED PROTEST" PLANS UNTIL AFTER KHAMENEI BURIAL NEXT MONTH per WSJ — Parliament-vote-deferral EXTENDS structurally-locked; "next month" = post-Jul-9 → possibly Aug window.

🟢 NO UKMTO/MARAD FRESH INCIDENT JUL 5-6 — clean-weekend extends into Mon-Asia-transit.

🔴 HOUTHI JUL-1 4-CLAIMS 144-152H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED — 7-day threshold Mon-eve (~20h out); locks harder toward empirical-null-lock.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 128 / Ceasefire Day 18 / 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60 / 30-day-blockade-lift-clock Day 18 of 30. C201 → C202 (~4-8h narrow): FUNERAL-DAY-3-MON-8AM-PRAYER-LEADER-STILL-UNKNOWN + THREE-SONS-APPEAR-MOJTABA-INVISIBLE + PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT + WRIGHT-SPR-SILENT-CONFIRMS + KRG-200K-BPD-CONFIRMED + NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-EXPLICIT + UAE-3.9-SAUDI-RAMP + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL-EXTENDS-NEXT-MONTH + NO-UKMTO-JUL-5-6 + HOUTHI-144-152H+.

Cross-leg status (C202):

🟡 Iran-Israel direct-leg: PAUSE HOLDS — 36th day window; no fresh action 4-8h+ composite
🟢 Iran-US kinetic-leg STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-4-8H-DEEPER: Vance "talks going well" carry; Doha Round-1 concludes carry; deconfliction-cell IRGC+CENTCOM carry; ⚠️ IRGC-Mohebi-hotline-denial carry; NO US third-round + NO IRGC third-round 4-8h+ fresh; 🟢 TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-FRAMING NEW carry; ⚠️🔴 Axios Jul-4/5 collapses-to-null (C201) carry; 🔴🔴 Trump-international-waters-doctrine (C201) carry
⏳ Iran-Gulf-state kinetic-leg HOLDS-TRIPLE-FRONT POST-STAND-DOWN: casualty carry; NO fresh Gulf-state strike C201→C202 (4-8h)
🔴 Iran-Commercial-tier kinetic-leg HOLDS: KIKU+DELONIX+8-SHIP-U-TURN carries; NO fresh named-commercial-Hormuz-hit C201→C202
🟢/⚠️🔴 Iran-US blockade-leg: 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60; 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 = full-lift Jul 18 (13 days) carries; stand-down "vessels move freely" carry; GL X Aug-21 carry; TankerTrackers 3.8M carry; C200 Jul-3-39-transits carry; 🟢 HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR EXPLICIT: TANKER-GAS-HEAVY INBOUND (12/17) + LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY OUTBOUND / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW NEW; 🟢 UAE-3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-flow NEW; 🔴 US SPR 325.7M carry; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" CONFIRMS SPR-SILENT-TIER NEW
🟡/🔴🔴 Iran-US rhetorical-leg: 🟢 Doha Round-1/Round-2-post-funeral-firm carries; 🟢 Vance/Trump-week-off-restraint carries; 🔴🔴 Trump-international-waters + Anna-Kelly carries; 🔴🔴 Gharibabadi-unilateral carries; 🔴🔴 Araghchi-strait-not-prewar carries; 🔴 Saudi-FM-Faisal-rejection carries; 🔴 PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH FROM FUNERAL-STAGE NEW; 🟢 TRUMP "IRAN DYING TO SETTLE — WEEK OFF" NEW-RESTRAINT-TIER
🔴 Iran intra-elite + intra-state: All C201 carries; ⚠️🔴 MOJTABA STILL INVISIBLE + THREE OTHER KHAMENEI SONS APPEARED AT MOURNING JUL 5 per CNN — visible-family-asymmetry NEW; Prayer-leader Day-3 Mon-8am STILL NOT ANNOUNCED per Hassanzadeh — first-visible-legitimacy-test-at-dawn; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT-VOTE STILL DEFERRED — "hardline legislators postponed protest until after Khamenei burial next month" per WSJ — deferral structurally locked
🟢🟢 Israel-MOU + Lebanon-leg: Iran-US-Lebanon-committee-formalized carry; 8-day post-kinetic threshold CROSSED Jul 5 carry; 9-day threshold Mon-morning approach; Berri + Hezbollah-Qassem rejection carries
🟢/⚠️ Qatar (Ras Laffan): 🟢 Qatar PM al-Thani "positive progress" carry; 🟢 Iran-experts-delegation Doha Round-1 completed; 🟢 Al Hamla → China arrival verification STILL-PENDING C201→C202 (4-day); ⚠️ Qatar remains silent; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry
🔴 Pakistan (mediator-second-tier): Pakistan-mediator-institutionalizes-carry
🔴🔴 Saudi: FM Faisal-rejects-fee-plan carry; E-W pipeline full-capacity carry; 🟢 SAUDI-RAMP-TO-ASIA-VIA-HORMUZ per TE NEW — bypass+non-Iran-Gulf recovery
🔴 Bahrain / 🔴 Kuwait CONFLICT-ZONE-CARRIES: casualty figures carry; NO fresh strikes
⚠️🔴 Yemen/Red Sea-leg CLAIM-TIER 144-152H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER: HOUTHI-DELONIX C186 carry; ⚠️🔴 Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 144-152h+ empirical-tier unconfirmed (Mon-eve = 168h/7-day, ~20h out); MARAD 2026-006 through Sep-22 carry
🟢/⚠️/🔴🔴 Mediation POST-C201-STRUCTURAL-QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRY / TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-NEW / KINETIC-CLEAN-4-8H-DEEPER

Key Jul 5 late-eve / Jul 6 pre-dawn C202 events (~4-8h fresh delta from C201):

🔴🔴 Funeral Day 3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled — prayer leader STILL NOT ANNOUNCED
🔴🔴 Three Khamenei sons appear at mourning — Mojtaba still invisible
🔴 Performer calls for Trump's death at funeral stage
🟢 Trump Mount Rushmore "week off... because we're nice" — restraint-anchor
🟢 Wright CNBC "no plan right now" to alter SPR drawdown — silent-tier confirms
🟢 KRG Hostani names 200K+ bpd via interim protocol
🟢 Hormuzstraitmonitor "no crude departed" this-window explicit
🟢 UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp + 10-mb/d total Hormuz flow
⚠️ Hardline legislators "postponed protest until after burial next month"
🟢 No UKMTO fresh incident Jul 5-6

Cumulative casualties (C202 CARRY UNCHANGED from C201):

Iran civilians killed: Foundation of Martyrs 3,468 / HRANA 3,636 / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates
Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs; US KIA/wounded: 15 / 543; Israel: 40 IDF KIA + 28-29 civilians = 69 + 9,161 injured
Iraq: 119+; UAE: 13; Kuwait: 10 + 4 KIA + 7 civilians + 78 + 104 injured; Bahrain: 3 + 51 injured; Saudi: 3 + 29 injured
Qatar (Ras Laffan): 13 KIA + 66 + 54 injured + 18 missing + 1 Qatar citizen
Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities
Lebanon: 4,057+ killed + 12,121 wounded (8-day-post-kinetic-crossed Jul 5; 9-day approaches Mon-morning)
Cross-source total: 7,144-9,676+ killed; ~46,965 injured

Ceasefire likelihood assessment (C202): HOLDS-AT-DOHA-ROUND-1 + ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + KINETIC-CLEAN-4-8H-DEEPER + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-NEW + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-WEEKEND-INTO-MON ↔ QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRIES + HOSTILE-RHETORIC-FROM-FUNERAL-STAGE-NEW + MOJTABA-VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY-DEEPENS. C202 refines C201 ~4-8h with kinetic-tier extending clean and structural-substance-tier holding C201 quadruple-veto unchanged. FOR (containment-vectors — EXTEND): (a) Kinetic clean 4-8h+ composite; (b) Trump-week-off-framing = restraint-anchor; (c) Wright-SPR-silent confirms decision-restraint; (d) KRG-200K-bpd + Saudi-ramp + UAE-3.9 = bypass-tier operational; (e) No UKMTO Jul 5-6; (f) Doha Round-2 post-funeral-firm carries. AGAINST (open vectors — HARDEN): (a) THREE-SONS-VISIBLE + MOJTABA-INVISIBLE = succession-legitimacy-tier deepens beyond simple-absence into family-visibility-asymmetry; (b) Prayer-leader Mon-8am still not announced = first-visible-test-of-legitimacy at dawn; (c) Performer-calls-Trump-death from official-stage = hostile-rhetoric-tier NEW from Iran-official-venue; (d) Parliament-deferral EXTENDS "next month" per WSJ = structurally-locked toward Aug; (e) Corridor "no-crude-departed-this-window" explicit — recovery-tier bifurcation confirmed; (f) Houthi 144-152h+ empirical-null locks harder (7-day threshold ~20h out); (g) All C201 quadruple-veto carries (Trump-international-waters + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection). Critical 0-12h: (a) Mon-8am Tehran prayer-leader identity; (b) any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3-dawn; (c) Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under week-off-vs-hostile-rhetoric bifurcation; (d) Lebanon 9-day threshold Mon-morning; (e) any Trump response to performer-death-call; (f) Katz/Israel response to Iran-mobilization-rhetoric; (g) Ghalibaf/Araghchi funeral-Day-3 remarks; (h) Iraq-Turkey formal-signing timing; (i) Polymarket Dec-31 83% weekly-open; (j) UKMTO/MARAD Mon; (k) Al Hamla → China 4-day empirical-confirmation; (l) any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence Mon-post-Day-3.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current Status	Δ vs C201
Transits/day	🟢 JUL-3: 39 VESSELS (17-IN + 22-OUT) per hormuzstraitmonitor CARRY; HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR-EXPLICIT (via wiki): INBOUND TANKER-GAS-HEAVY 12 OF 17 SPLIT BOTH CORRIDORS + OUTBOUND LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW NEW; 🟢 UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi-ramp + TOTAL DAILY FLOW ABOVE 10 MB/D THROUGH HORMUZ NEW per TE; JUL-4 STRAITS.LIVE 27 carry; hormuztracking.com "4 vessels 0.0 knots" real-time; Kpler 30-day-forward 40-target carry; 7-day-moving-average crude-flow "close to zero" carry; Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn carry; IMO evacuation-paused 256-262H+	🟢 CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION-EXPLICIT + 10-MB/D-TOTAL-NEW
Iran formal closure	ALL C201 CARRIES: IRAN ARMY FORMAL HORMUZ CLOSURE + Ghalibaf-5-precondition + IRGC-Mohebi-hotline-denial + Iran-Oman-parallel-fee-scheme + Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 + Trump-international-waters-doctrine + Anna-Kelly + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-strait-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT-VOTE STILL DEFERRED — "hardline legislators postponed protest until after burial next month" per WSJ NEW-EXPLICIT	⚠️ DEFERRAL-STRUCTURAL-LOCK-NEXT-MONTH-NEW
IRGC Navy kinetic enforcement	C186 carries; NO fresh IRGC kinetic action C201→C202 (4-8h+); STAND-DOWN extends deeper + Vance-deconfliction-cell-Hormuz carry; Axios Jul-4/5 collapses-to-null carry	🟢 EXTENDS
JMIC threat level	🔴 SUBSTANTIAL CONFIRMED carry; JMIC widened southern Oman route carry	🔴 LOCKED
US kinetic enforcement (Hormuz response)	C186 carry; NO US third-round in 4-8h+ fresh composite; MUTUAL STAND-DOWN + Vance "talks going well" + Doha Round-1-concludes + Doha Round-2-post-funeral firm + Trump "very good meetings" carries; ⚠️ Vance "cannot commit — depends on Iran" carry; 🔴🔴 Trump-international-waters-doctrine + Anna-Kelly carry; 🟢 TRUMP-MOUNT-RUSHMORE "IRAN DYING TO SETTLE — WEEK OFF FOR FUNERAL BECAUSE WE'RE NICE" NEW-RESTRAINT-FRAMING	🟢/🔴🔴 EXTENDS-4-8H / TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-NEW
Tanker compliance / corridor enforcement	AZUMASAN+BLUE-STAR-I + KIKU+DELONIX + Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-U-turn carries; NO new Hormuz vessel hit C201→C202 (4-8h+); STAND-DOWN "vessels move freely"; 🟢 Ghalibaf 40M+ barrels at 20% premium + TankerTrackers 3.8M-through-Hormuz-post-blockade + TASS-68M-afloat + Jul-3-39-transits carries; 🟢 "NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW" EXPLICIT deepens 7DMA structural signal; 🟢 RAS-LAFFAN AL HAMLA → CHINA VERIFICATION STILL-PENDING C201→C202 (4-DAY); ⚠️🔴 Houthi-Jul-1-144-152H+ empirical-unconfirmed	🟢 CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION-EXPLICIT / AL-HAMLA-4-DAY-PENDING
Iran-Oman joint transit committee + bilateral channel	ALL C201 carries: Bloomberg + Araghchi-Albusaidi + Ghalibaf-Muscat + Vance-deconfliction-cell + IRGC-Mohebi-denies + Qatar-FM-no-US-Iran-meeting + Iran-MFA-denies + Doha-Round-1-concludes + Round-2-post-funeral-firm + Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 + Pakistan-mediator + Iran-Oman parallel-fee + Trump-veto + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL "AFTER BURIAL NEXT MONTH" NEW	⚠️ DEFERRAL-EXTENDS-STRUCTURAL-LOCK
Strait status	ALL C201 carries + FUNERAL-DAY-3-8AM-PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN + THREE-SONS-VISIBLE-MOJTABA-INVISIBLE + PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT + WRIGHT-SPR-SILENT-CONFIRMS + KRG-200K-BPD-CONFIRMED + NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-EXPLICIT + UAE-3.9 + SAUDI-RAMP + 10-MB/D-TOTAL + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL-NEXT-MONTH + NO-UKMTO-MON-EVE + HOUTHI-144-152H+	🟢/⚠️/🔴🔴 10 MATERIAL DELTAS
Iran kinetic activity — Hormuz-leg	All prior entries carry; NO new IRGC kinetic C201→C202 (4-8h) + STAND-DOWN + Vance-deconfliction-cell; Axios-null carry	🟢 EXTENDS
Iran-Israel direct-leg	PAUSE HOLDS — 36th day window; no fresh action 4-8h+	🟢 EXTENDS
US blockade — political	OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-4-8H-DEEPER; GL X Aug-21 carry; 30-DAY-BLOCKADE-LIFT DAY 18 OF 30 → JUL 18 (13 DAYS OUT) carry; ALL C201 carries + 🟢 TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-FRAMING NEW ↔ ALL C201 negatives carry	🟢/🔴🔴 WEEK-OFF-NEW / QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRY
US blockade — physical	OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60; 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 → JUL 18 (13 DAYS) carry; ALL C201 recovery + carry carries; 🟢 "NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW" EXPLICIT NEW; 🟢 UAE-3.9 + SAUDI-RAMP + 10-MB/D-TOTAL NEW; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" SPR-DECISION-WINDOW-SILENT-CONFIRMS	🟢 CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION + WRIGHT-SILENT-CONFIRMS
India safe passage	ALL C201 carries: DISHA + India-96%-recovery + non-Hormuz-70% + June->5-mb/d + Russia/UAE-dominant + THREE-WAY-DIVERGENCE (9-10 / 25 / 69 days) + SPR-expansion-plans	⚠️🔴 DEEPENS-CARRY

3. Tanker Attack Log (cumulative since Feb 28)

Running total: 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities (IMO cumulative). C202 DELTA: ⚠️🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claims 144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO/MARAD (LOCKS HARDER — 7-day threshold Mon-eve ~20h out); NO new Hormuz vessel hits C201→C202 (4-8h fresh); Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn carry; container-ship-aground C199 carry.

Date	Vessel	Flag	Location	Damage	Casualties	Delta
Jul 4 (Bloomberg)	8 SHIPS TOTAL — U-TURNED Fri-Sat; 4 switched to Iran-directed route (1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier northward)	Various	Hormuz	Non-kinetic — Iran corridor-control enforcement	None	C201 CARRY
Jul 2 (report)	Container ship (unnamed)	Unspecified	Strait of Hormuz	AGROUND during "unauthorized transit" per Iranian authorities	(none)	C199 CARRY
Jul 1 (claim)	M/T Delonix (2nd Houthi claim)	Liberia	Red Sea	Houthis claim — 144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED	(none)	⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim)	MSC Unific	(MSC-Zurich)	Arabian Sea	Houthis claim — 144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED	(none)	⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim)	Anvil Point (British sealift)	UK-flag/RFA	Indian Ocean	Houthis claim — 144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED	(none)	⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim)	Lucky Sailor	(various)	Mediterranean Sea	Houthis claim — 144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED	(none)	⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim/denied)	MSC Manzanillo (Portugal-flag)	Portugal	Haifa (docked)	Houthis + Islamic Resistance in Iraq claim — IDF-DENIED	(none)	CARRY
Jun 28 ~03:00 local	M/T Delonix (1st)	Liberia	NW Al Hudaydah (Red Sea)	None — vessel escaped per UKMTO	None	CARRY
Jun 27 ~08:00 UTC	VLCC Kiku	Panama	Gulf (Al Shaheen → Singapore via Fujairah)	Bridge starboard wing damage; 2M bbl cargo intact	None	CARRY
Jun 26 (Thu)	M/V Ever Lovely	Singapore	Hormuz approaches (Gulf of Oman)	Projectile hit confirmed	None	CARRY
Jun 8-9	M/V Tavvishi + M/V Norderney	Various	Gulf of Aden	Houthi missile strikes	(carry)	CARRY
Various (Mar-Jun)	Azumasan, Blue Star I, 3 unnamed	Various	Hormuz	NAMED U-TURN — no impacts	None	CARRY
(priors)	Multiple incidents	Various	Hormuz / Red Sea / Iraq terminals	Mixed	14 cumulative fatalities	CARRY

Neutral-state-infrastructure attacks (flagged separately): Ras Laffan (Qatar Mar 18), Port Salman/Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain), Ali Al Salem (Kuwait), SAUDI — all CARRY.

IRGC friendly-fire incidents: No new C201→C202.

4. Oil Prices

Benchmark	Current	Prior Cycle (C201)	Pre-war (Feb 27)	Peak (Mar 8)	Δ
Brent spot	🟢 $72.12 JUL-3 SPOT CARRY per Bloomberg/TE; Mon-Asia-open PENDING under Trump-week-off-restraint + Iran-hostile-rhetoric-bifurcation	$72.12 Jul-3 CONFIRMED	~$70	$119-126	🟢 CARRY-PENDING-OPEN
Brent futures (front month)	🟢 ~$72 per TE carry	$72 estimate	~$70	$119-126	🟢 CARRY
WTI	🟢 ~$68.11 open Jul-2 + ~$69 Jul-3 macrotrends carry	~$69	~$66 (pre-war ~$66-70)	~$115	🟢 CARRY
Oman/Dubai	Not surfaced in 4-8h window	(carry)	—	—	CARRY
VLCC day rates	🔴 TD3C $423K peak + spot ~$200K/day + Anews-easing-carry	Same	~$50K/d	~$200K+	🔴/🟢 CARRY
Brent Q2 quarterly	🟢 -15% Q2 CONFIRMED carry	-15%	—	—	🟢 CARRY
WTI Q2 quarterly	🟢 -30% Q2 CONFIRMED carry	-30%	—	—	🟢 CARRY
Iran export price (per Ghalibaf)	🟢 20% premium carry — implied ~$86	(carry)	~$70	—	🟢 CARRY
TankerTrackers Iran-afloat	🔴 UP TO 68M BARRELS carry; 3.8M through Hormuz post-blockade carry	(carry)	—	—	🔴 CARRY
Total daily flow through Hormuz	🟢 ABOVE 10 MB/D per TE NEW — UAE 3.9 + Saudi ramp + non-Iran-Gulf recovery	(carry ~7-8 mb/d)	~20	—	🟢 10-MB/D-NEW
Polymarket normalization odds	🔴 JUL 15: 6% + JUL 31: 18% + DEC-31: 83% + JUL 7: 6% carry — floor holds C201→C202	Same	—	—	🔴 FLOOR-HOLDS

Threshold crossings: No new $100/$120 threshold. Brent $72.12 carries. Mon-Asia-open PENDING under bifurcation: (i) Trump-week-off-restraint-framing = downside-anchor; (ii) Performer-calls-Trump-death + Mojtaba-visible-asymmetry + prayer-leader-unknown = upside-risk-tier.

Analyst forecasts (this cycle):

All C201 carries (Goldman $80 Q4 Brent cut, WTI Q2 -30%, LiteFinance $67.93-71.84 range)
No fresh JPM / EIA forecasts C201→C202

Geopolitical statements affecting price (C201→C202 NEW):

🔴🔴 Three Khamenei sons appear + Mojtaba still invisible — succession-visible-asymmetry NEW
🔴🔴 Mon-8am prayer-leader still not announced per Hassanzadeh — legitimacy-test-at-dawn
🔴 Performer calls for Trump's death at funeral per WaPo — official-stage-hostile-rhetoric
🟢 Trump Mount Rushmore: "Iran dying to settle — week off... because we're nice" — restraint-anchor
🟢 Wright CNBC "no plan right now" — SPR silent-tier confirms
🟢 KRG Hostani 200K+ bpd preservation — Iraq-Turkey soft-lands
🟢 "No-crude-departed this-window" explicit — corridor bifurcation
🟢 UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp + 10-mb/d total Hormuz flow
⚠️ Parliament deferral "until after burial next month" per WSJ
🟢 No UKMTO fresh incident Jul 5-6

Mon-Asia open PENDING under bifurcation. Tail scenarios: $75-80 (if Iran unilateral-toll-declaration post-funeral OR Mojtaba emerges hardliner OR performer-death-call escalates OR Parliament ratifies-post-funeral); $80-90 (if Iran-Parliament-rejection triggers formal toll-demand OR Mon-prayer-leader-vacuum triggers legitimacy-crisis); $90-100 (if IRGC-third-round); $98-110 (if nuclear/Iraq-K-C-closure/Houthi-systemic-Bab-el-Mandeb). Downside: WTI $65-67 (if Doha Round-2 breakthrough + Mojtaba-appears-Day-3 + prayer-leader-announced-legitimate + P&I re-entry + sustained 40+/day + 10-mb/d-total-flow-scales + 30-day-full-lift Jul 18 unopposed).

5. SPR

IEA coordinated release status:

Release	Announced	Barrels	Physical Delivery Status	Δ
US SPR (March cadence)	Mar	172M bbl program	🔴 325.7M BBL total for week ending Jun 26 — LOWEST SINCE MAY 1983 carry; 43-YEAR-LOW; Semafor "172M FIRST-ROUND FULLY DRAWN" first week of July carry; ~76M above 150M operational floor; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER DRAWDOWN + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION FROM BIG HILL / BRYAN MOUND NEW — mechanical-continuation, NOT fresh second-round	🟢 WRIGHT-SILENT-CONFIRMS
IEA-coordinated (30-nation)	Mar	400M bbl program	Continues per March cadence carry; Japan 80M bbl release Mar 16 ongoing	CARRY
US Treasury 60-day sanctions waiver (GL X)	Jun 22	Through Aug 21, 2026	🟢 CONFIRMED carry	🟢 CARRY
US 30-day-blockade-lift-clock	Jun 18	Physical blockade removal	🟢 DAY 18 OF 30 → JUL 18 FULL-LIFT-TERMINUS (13 DAYS OUT) carry	🟢 CARRY
US replenishment plans (Wright)	Mar	"more than replace" 200M within next year	133M bbl contracted carry; 86M first solicitation carry	CARRY
NEW release announcements C201→C202	—	—	NONE per energy.gov / eia.gov (4-8h fresh) — Wright-CNBC "no plan right now"	🟢 SILENT-CONFIRMS

Country reserves table:

Country	Reserve Days	Emergency Actions	Δ
Japan	254 days; 80M-bbl Mar 16 release ongoing; 350M-bbl onshore ~150 days per Zero Carbon carry	Continues; no new emergency	CARRY
South Korea	208 days carry	(carry)	CARRY
China	~108-120 days; 1.2B bbl strategic per Zero Carbon carry	(carry)	CARRY
India	⚠️🔴 THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE FLAGGED CARRY: 9-10 (Outlook/PSUWatch SPR-strict) vs 25 (World Oil Jul-2 SPR-broader) vs 69 (Zero Carbon total-supply); 🟢 INDIA SPR-EXPANSION + DIVERSIFICATION carry; 96%-recovery + June >5 mb/d carry; India second-largest Hormuz-crude-destination at 14.7% per IEA carry	⚠️🔴 DEEPENS-CARRY
US (NEW FLOOR)	🔴 SPR 325.7M — 43-year-low carry; 🔴 Semafor 172M-program-terminus CONFIRMED carry; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" CONFIRMS SILENT-TIER + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION FROM BIG HILL / BRYAN MOUND (MECHANICAL-EXCHANGE NOT SECOND-ROUND) NEW — ~76M above 150M operational floor	🟢 SILENT-CONFIRMS-MECHANICAL
Philippines	EO 110 emergency stands carry; PAL cliff arrived Jun 30 carry	🔴 CLIFF-CARRY	CARRY

SPR runway math: Cumulative ~572M bbl committed (172M US + 400M IEA program) + GL X Aug-21 + 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 → Jul 18 + Ghalibaf 40M+ barrels + TASS-68M-afloat + India June-empirical + Persian Gulf 75%-recovery + Qatar-LNG-loading + Jul-3-39-transits + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow-NEW carry. 🔴 US SPR 325.7M at 43-year-low; 172M first-round FULLY DRAWN per Semafor; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION MECHANICAL-EXCHANGE-ONLY = SPR-decision-window-silent-tier CONFIRMS through weekend. Empirical Iran 40-68M-barrels-flow + Brent-$72.12 + Bloomberg-8-ship-U-turn + UAE-3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-flow suggests structural supply-tier absorbing WITHOUT SPR second-round despite Iran corridor-control enforcement; decision-window-restraint tier held through Sun-eve/Mon-Asia-open.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity (mb/d)	Utilization (mb/d)	Spare (mb/d)	Status	Δ
Saudi East-West (Petroline)	7.0	Full capacity since Mar 11	0	At-cap + SAUDI RAMP-TO-ASIA VIA HORMUZ NEW per TE = adds non-Iran-Gulf-tier flow above pipeline	🟢 SAUDI-RAMP-NEW
UAE ADCOP	1.5 → 1.8 max flex	1.06 (71% util) per IEA carry; UAE 3.9 mb/d Hormuz-flow per TE NEW	0.44	Spare; UAE 573K bpd to India carry; 3.9 mb/d total UAE Hormuz flow NEW	🟢 3.9-MB/D-NEW
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan	0.5 → 0.77 (ramp 2.5mo); contract expires Jul 27 (DAY 22 OUT)	🟢 ~230K bpd carry; 🟢 KRG DIRECTOR HOSTANI: "MORE THAN 200K BPD" TO KEEP FLOWING VIA CEYHAN VIA INTERIM PROTOCOL NEW-EXPLICIT-CONFIRMATION per Turkish Minute	—	🔴 TURKEY FORMALLY REJECTS 30-day extension carry; 🟢 INTERIM PROTOCOL RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING carry + KRG-HOSTANI 200K+ BPD EXPLICIT NEW; 🟢 Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry; 🟢 Basra→K-C northern-shift accelerating carry; 🟢 Turkey-new-deal-Basra 450K bpd carry; 22 DAYS TO FORMAL EXPIRY	🟢/🔴 KRG-200K-EXPLICIT / 22-DAY-COUNTDOWN
Iraq $5B southern→Ceyhan/Baniyas/Aqaba pipeline	2.5 (long-dated)	—	—	🟢 BASRA-HADITHA 700km carry	🟢 CARRY
Oman ports (Duqm, Salalah)	(carry)	(carry)	—	(carry)	CARRY
Egypt SUMED	(carry)	(carry)	—	(carry)	CARRY
Cape of Good Hope rerouting	(variable)	(variable)	—	Maersk + MSC + CMA CGM + Hapag-Lloyd all on Cape through 2026 carry	CARRY

GAP: 11.4-12.6 mb/d unbridgeable carry. UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow-NEW = non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier confirms; but structural GAP unchanged (pre-war ~20 mb/d Hormuz vs ~7.4-8.6 mb/d operational bypass). Turkey-Iraq interim-protocol-RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING + KRG-Hostani-200K-EXPLICIT = pipeline-terminus soft-lands rather than hard-cutoff.

7. Maritime Insurance

Parameter	Current	Δ
War risk premium %	🟡 Hormuz premiums 0.2%→1% hull carry (~$800K/VLCC voyage carry); Lloyd's List "$10M-$14M charterer's account extreme cases" carry; ~1% Persian Gulf carry; Lloyd's/Chubb 0.8-1.5% carry; 8.0x pre-crisis baseline carry; Anews-easing-Jul-2 carry	🟢 CARRY
P&I club coverage status	ALL 12 IG P&I clubs cancelled non-poolable war risks carry; liability coverage through P&I Clubs is non-cancellable and remains reinsured in London per Howden Re carry; Day 88 → Day 88 (Jul 5-6 transition) — no re-entry signal C201→C202	CARRY-DAY-88
Lloyd's-London war-risk availability (CLARIFICATION)	🟢 "War insurance available in Lloyd's/London company market for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz" carry; Lloyd's writes 70-80% of world marine-war-business	🟢 CARRY-CLARIFIED
VLCC day rates	🔴 TD3C peak $423,736/day carry; VLCCs near $470K/day per OilPrice carry; spot ~$200K/day Gulf-China carry; rate doubled ~$106K → >$190K/day post-MoU carry; Anews "easing" carry	🔴 CARRY / EASING-CARRY
Lloyd's/Chubb consortium ($400M)	🟢 DAY 18 → DAY 19 OPERATIONAL carry — $200M hull+P&I + $200M cargo; Chubb lead; rates 0.8-1.5%	🟢 DAY-19-EXTENDS
DFC reinsurance program	🟢 $40B carry per irregular warfare + WEF	🟢 CARRY
BIMCO surcharge	No formal Gulf surcharge update C201→C202	CARRY
Crew refusal rate	Hormuz-tier carry; LMA "safety not insurance" framing carry; Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship-U-turn signals crew-tier still cautious despite easing-signals; Ghalibaf-40M+ + TASS-68M + Brent-$72 easing carries	🟢/⚠️ CARRY
Fixture cancellations	🔴 IMO evacuation paused 256-262H+ — 5-DAY THRESHOLD CROSSED BY 136-142H; Dominguez decision at +10-day horizon	🔴 -4-8H-DEEPER

P&I re-entry absence: Day 88. Single strongest structural de-escalation indicator. NO re-entry signal C201→C202; Lloyd's-Chubb consortium Day-19 confirmed + Lloyd's-London-market-war-insurance-available carry + Ghalibaf-40M+ + Jul-3-39-transits + Brent-$72.12 + Doha-Round-2-firm + Trump-week-off-restraint + Wright-SPR-silent-confirms + KRG-200K + 10-mb/d-total-flow = converging containment-signals for potential re-assessment. But TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + IRAN-GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTION + MOJTABA-VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY + PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN + PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL-NEXT-MONTH + Bloomberg-Jul-4 U-turn + "no-crude-departed-this-window" = re-entry decision delays through Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-date-setting + resolution of Mon-8am-prayer-leader-question + Aug-Parliament-window.

8. Shadow Fleet

No new OFAC designation C201→C202 (4-8h fresh) per home.treasury.gov / state.gov (OFAC 19 vessels + Hengli Petrochemical Dalian teapot + ~40 shipping firms cumulative carries)
🟢 US Treasury 60-day sanctions waiver (GL X through Aug 21) carry
🟢 Ghalibaf: Iran exported 40M+ barrels since Jun 18 at 20% premium carry; TankerTrackers 3.8M-through-Hormuz-post-blockade carry
🔴 TASS/Bloomberg UP TO 68M BARRELS IRANIAN OIL AFLOAT carry
🔴 Iran's oil exports fell more than 90% in May per Kharon carry — pre-blockade-lift context
🟢 State Department cumulative sanctions carry
No fresh GRU/Wagner militarization signal C201→C202
No fresh IRGC friendly-fire incident C201→C202
Shadow fleet size confirmed 1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet) baseline carry

9. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Key Actions	Risk Level
US	Ceasefire-holds + STAND-DOWN + 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 + GL X Aug-21	ALL C201 carries + 🟢 TRUMP MOUNT-RUSHMORE "IRAN DYING TO SETTLE — WEEK OFF" NEW-RESTRAINT-FRAMING; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" SPR-SILENT-CONFIRMS + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION MECHANICAL NEW	🟢 WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT + WRIGHT-SILENT-NEW
Israel	Ceasefire-holds carry + Israel-not-signatory-to-Iran-MoU carry	Israel-Hayom Jul-2 "final stretch" carry; Katz-hardens carry; Israel-assassination-threat-driving Mojtaba-absence per RFERL/JPost carry; NO fresh Israel-signal Day-3-approach 4-8h	🔴 CARRY
Iran	ALL C201 carries: Ghalibaf-Parliament-Speaker + Baghaei-FM 5-precondition + Araghchi "30-day-sole-control"	⚠️🔴 THREE KHAMENEI SONS APPEAR AT MOURNING JUL 5 — MOJTABA STILL INVISIBLE per CNN Jul-5-live — visible-family-asymmetry-tier NEW; ⚠️🔴 PRAYER-LEADER MON-8AM STILL NOT ANNOUNCED per HASSANZADEH — legitimacy-test-at-dawn; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT VOTE DEFERRED "UNTIL AFTER BURIAL NEXT MONTH" per WSJ — deferral-structural-lock-EXPLICIT; 🔴 PERFORMER CALLS FOR TRUMP'S DEATH AT FUNERAL per WaPo — hostile-rhetoric-from-official-stage NEW; all C201 substance-tier carries	🔴🔴 VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY-NEW + PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN + HOSTILE-RHETORIC-NEW + PARLIAMENT-STRUCTURAL-LOCK
Saudi	E-W pipeline full capacity 7.0 mb/d carry; FM-Faisal-rejects-fee-plan carry	🟢 SAUDI RAMP-TO-ASIA VIA HORMUZ per TE NEW — non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms via 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow	🟢 SAUDI-RAMP-NEW
UAE	ADCOP 71% util carry; UAE-573K-bpd-to-India-June carry	🟢 UAE 3.9 MB/D TOTAL HORMUZ FLOW per TE NEW — export recovery confirms	🟢 3.9-MB/D-NEW
Qatar	Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending 4-day carry; 8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan carry	Qatar-PM al-Thani "positive progress" carry; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry	🟢 CARRY
Oman	Iran-Oman parallel-fee-scheme voluntary-framing carry	🔴🔴 TRUMP-WARNED-OMAN carry + Gharibabadi-unilateral-threat carry	🔴🔴 CARRY-UNDER-DUAL-PRESSURE
Iraq	K-C ~230K bpd carry; Basra-shift accelerating carry	🟢 INTERIM PROTOCOL CARRY + KRG DIRECTOR HOSTANI EXPLICIT: "MORE THAN 200K BPD" PRESERVATION NEW per Turkish Minute; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry; K-C formal-expiry Day 22 out	🟢 KRG-HOSTANI-200K-EXPLICIT-NEW
Kuwait	Conflict-zone-casualty carry	(no fresh action)	🔴 CARRY
Bahrain	Conflict-zone-casualty carry	(no fresh action)	🔴 CARRY
China	108-120 days reserves carry; ~90% Iran-oil-purchaser carry	Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending; teapot-refinery-imports carry	🟢 CARRY
India	ALL C201 carries: THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE + 96%-recovery + June >5 mb/d + 14.7% Hormuz-crude-destination + highest-vulnerability-tier + SPR-EXPANSION	(no fresh action C201→C202)	⚠️🔴/🟢 CARRY
Japan	254 days carry; 80M-bbl release ongoing carry; 10.9% Hormuz-crude-destination + highest-vulnerability-tier (risk score 6.4) carry	(no fresh action)	🟢 CARRY
South Korea	208 days carry; 12.0% Hormuz-crude-destination + vulnerability-tier (risk score 5.3) carry	(no fresh action)	🟢 CARRY
Philippines	EO 110 emergency + PAL cliff-arrived carry	🔴 CLIFF-CARRY	🔴 CARRY
Turkey	K-C-formal-rejection carry	🟢 INTERIM-PROTOCOL CARRY + KRG-HOSTANI-200K-EXPLICIT NEW — pipeline-terminus soft-lands	🟢 PROTOCOL-CARRY-EXPLICIT
Pakistan	Mediator-institutionalized carry	(no fresh action)	🔴 CARRY
Lebanon	Institutional-committee-formalized carry + 8-DAY POST-KINETIC CROSSED JUL 5 carry; 9-day threshold Mon-morning	Berri + Hezbollah-Qassem rejection carries	🟢 9-DAY-APPROACHES

10. Policy Actions

Date	Actor	Action	Δ
Jul 5-6	🔴🔴 Iran (Regime)	Funeral Day-3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled per Hassanzadeh (IRGC-Tehran-commander); prayer-leader (religious-figure vs family-member) NOT ANNOUNCED per CBS/PBS	🔴🔴 NEW PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN
Jul 5	🔴🔴 Iran (Khamenei-family)	Three of Khamenei's sons appear at mourning Tehran — Mojtaba still invisible per CNN Jul-5-live	🔴🔴 NEW VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY
Jul 4-5	🔴 Iran (funeral-stage)	Performer calls for Trump's death at Khamenei funeral per WaPo	🔴 NEW HOSTILE-RHETORIC
Jul 4-5	🟢 US (Trump)	Mount Rushmore: "Iran is dying to settle... we gave them a week off for a funeral, because we're nice" per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN	🟢 NEW WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT
Jul 5	🟢 US (Wright / DOE)	CNBC: "no plan right now" to alter SPR drawdown; 39.5M bbl remaining in program; 40M-bbl new solicitation from Big Hill/Bryan Mound (mechanical-exchange, NOT second-round) per thewellnews.com	🟢 NEW WRIGHT-SILENT-CONFIRMS
Jul 4-5	🟢 Iraq/Turkey/KRG	KRG director Khazal Hostani: "more than 200,000 barrels per day" to keep flowing via Ceyhan via interim protocol per Turkish Minute	🟢 NEW KRG-HOSTANI-EXPLICIT
Jul 3	🟢 hormuzstraitmonitor (via Wiki)	JUL-3 39 transits explicit: 17-in tanker-gas-heavy (12/17) split both corridors + 22-out light-products-only / NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window	🟢 NEW CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION-EXPLICIT
Jul 3-5	🟢 TE / market	UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp + total daily flow above 10 mb/d through Hormuz	🟢 NEW 10-MB/D-TOTAL
Jul 5 (WSJ)	⚠️ Iran hardline legislators	"Postponed protest plans against parliament closure until after Ali Khamenei's burial next month"	⚠️ NEW DEFERRAL-STRUCTURAL-LOCK
Jul 4-5	🟢 UKMTO/MARAD	No fresh incident weekend into Mon-Asia-transit	🟢 EXTENDS
Priors	(multiple)	All C201-and-prior policy actions CARRY unchanged	CARRY

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend	Signal	C202 Δ
Conflict day count	128 (War Day 128)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Iran civilian dead (cumulative)	3,468-6,000+	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Iran displaced (cumulative)	~3.2M IDPs	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
US KIA/wounded (cumulative)	15 / 543	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Strait transits/day	🟢 39 Jul-3 CARRY (17-in tanker-gas-heavy 12/17 + 22-out light-products-only / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED EXPLICIT); Jul-4 straits.live 27 carry; 7DMA crude-flow near-zero carry; Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship-U-turn carry; UAE 3.9 + Saudi ramp + 10-mb/d total NEW	Bifurcates	🟢 CORRIDOR-EXPLICIT + 10-MB/D	🟢 EXPLICIT-NEW
Brent crude ($/bbl)	🟢 $72.12 Jul-3 spot CARRY	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
WTI crude ($/bbl)	🟢 ~$68-69 Jul-2-3 carry	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
VLCC day rates	🔴 TD3C $423K peak + spot ~$200K/day + Anews-easing carry	Elevated / easing	🔴/🟢 CARRY	CARRY
War risk premium (%)	🟡 ~1% Persian Gulf + Lloyd's-London-market-available carry	Flat / easing	🟡 CARRY	CARRY
Vessels attacked (cumulative)	46+ (IMO cumulative baseline)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Seafarers killed/missing (cumulative)	14 fatalities (IMO cumulative)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
IEA release (barrels committed)	400M program continues	Flat	🟡 CARRY	CARRY
US SPR release (barrels)	🔴 172M first-round FULLY DRAWN + SPR 325.7M at 43-year-low carry; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION BIG-HILL/BRYAN-MOUND MECHANICAL-EXCHANGE-ONLY NEW	Silent-confirms	🟢 SILENT-CONFIRMS	🟢 WRIGHT-NEW
Japan SPR release (barrels)	80M bbl release Mar 16 ongoing	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Iraq oil exports (mb/d)	~230K bpd via K-C + Basra-shift + KRG-HOSTANI EXPLICIT 200K+ BPD PRESERVATION via interim protocol NEW	Preservation-tier	🟢 EXPLICIT-NEW	🟢 KRG-NEW
Escort timeline (days to operational)	Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism carry	Flat	🟡 CARRY	CARRY
E-W pipeline utilization (mb/d)	7.0 at full capacity + Saudi-ramp-to-Asia carry	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Total bypass capacity (mb/d)	7.4-8.6 (at max flex)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Supply gap (GAP: X mb/d)	🔴 11.4-12.6 mb/d unbridgeable	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Total Hormuz daily flow	🟢 ABOVE 10 MB/D per TE NEW — UAE 3.9 + Saudi ramp + non-Iran-Gulf recovery	Recovering	🟢 10-MB/D-NEW	🟢 NEW
India reserve days	⚠️🔴 THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE CARRY: 9-10 (SPR-strict) vs 25 (SPR-broader) vs 69 (total-supply)	Source-lens triangulates	⚠️🔴 CARRY	CARRY
China reserve days	108-120 days	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Ships trapped in Gulf	485-anchored still-substantial-backlog carry; Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-U-turn ≠ trapped but Iran-route-switched	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Mine threat level	🔴 JMIC SUBSTANTIAL confirmed	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
IRGC posture	Formal-closure + STAND-DOWN + Ghalibaf-5-preconditions + Iran-Oman-fee-scheme + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Trump-veto + Saudi-anti-fee + Parliament-deferral-structural-lock-until-next-month NEW	Quadruple-veto-stalemate	🔴🔴 CARRY / DEFERRAL-LOCK-NEW	🔴🔴 NEW
P&I insurance status	ALL 12 IG clubs withdrawn; Day 88 of absence; Lloyd's-London-market-war-insurance-available carry	Absent	🔴 CARRY-DAY-88	CARRY
Qatar LNG status	8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan carry; Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending 4-day	Recovery-tier	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Dual chokepoint status	Hormuz + Red Sea simultaneously disrupted carry; Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 144-152h+ empirical-unconfirmed locks harder	Bifurcating	🔴/⚠️ 144-152H+	⚠️ 144-152H+
Ceasefire status	HOLDS-AT-DOHA-ROUND-1 + ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + KINETIC-CLEAN-4-8H-DEEPER + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-NEW + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO ↔ QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRIES + HOSTILE-RHETORIC-NEW + VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY-NEW	Bifurcates hard	🟡🔴 BIFURCATES-HARDER	🔴🔴 SUCCESSION-DEEPENS
Diplomatic channels	Doha Round-1 concludes; Round-2 post-funeral firm; Iran-US-Lebanon-committee; Pakistan+Qatar mediators; Vance-deconfliction-cell; Trump week-off-restraint-framing NEW; Iran-MFA denies US-parallel-track	Multi-channel active with quadruple-veto	🟢/🔴🔴 WEEK-OFF-NEW / VETO-CARRY	🟢 NEW
SE Asia crisis status	Philippines cliff-arrived + PAL EO 110 carry	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Funeral-succession-tier	Day 3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled; prayer-leader NOT-ANNOUNCED; three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible = visible-asymmetry-tier NEW	Tightening HARDER	🔴🔴 SUCCESSION-DEEPENS	🔴🔴 NEW

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

🔴🔴 Funeral Day 3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled per Hassanzadeh — prayer-leader NOT ANNOUNCED. Either religious-figure or family-member per CBS/PBS carry. First-visible-test of succession-legitimacy at Mon-dawn.

🔴🔴 Three of Khamenei's sons appear at mourning Jul 5 — Mojtaba still invisible per CNN Jul-5-live. Visible-family-asymmetry-tier NEW: three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-still-hidden = succession-ritual-gap deepens beyond simple absence into family-visibility-asymmetry-signal.

🔴 Performer calls for Trump's death at Khamenei funeral Jul 4-5 per WaPo. Hostile-rhetoric-tier from official-Iran-stage NEW; funeral-emotional-momentum risk for anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure post-Jul-9.

🟢 Trump Mount Rushmore Jul-4-5: "Iran is dying to settle... we gave them a week off for a funeral, because we're nice" per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN. Week-off framing = restraint-signal + diplomacy-anchor; harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral firm; Trump-restraint-tier positive-tone preserved despite anti-Trump-rhetoric from Iran-stage.

🟢 Wright CNBC "no plan right now" to alter drawdown + 39.5M bbl remaining + 40M-bbl new solicitation from Big Hill/Bryan Mound per thewellnews.com. SPR-decision-window-silent-tier CONFIRMS through weekend; new solicitation = mechanical-exchange, NOT fresh second-round.

🟢 KRG director Hostani: "more than 200,000 barrels per day" preservation via interim protocol per Turkish Minute. Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands EXPLICITLY confirmed at KRG-official-level; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry.

🟢 Hormuzstraitmonitor explicit Jul-3: 17-inbound tanker-gas-heavy (12 of 17) split both corridors + 22-outbound light-products-only / NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window per Wikipedia+argus. Corridor-bifurcation explicit — deepens 7DMA-crude-flow-near-zero structural signal from C201.

🟢 UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp-to-Asia + total daily flow above 10 mb/d through Hormuz per TE. Non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms; bypass+non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier maintains oil-market containment.

⚠️ Hardline legislators "postponed protest until after Khamenei burial next month" per WSJ. Parliament-vote-deferral EXTENDS structurally-locked; "next month" = post-Jul-9 → possibly Aug window.

🟢 No UKMTO/MARAD fresh incident Jul 5-6 — clean-weekend extends into Mon-Asia-transit.

🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-claims 144-152H+ empirically UNCONFIRMED — 7-day empirical-null-window Mon-eve ~20h out.

(b) Structural Locks Status

Lock 1 (Price): 🟢 LOOSENING (modest, confirmed) — Brent $72.12 Jul-3 carry; UAE 3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow strengthens recovery-tier; Mon-Asia open PENDING under Trump-week-off-restraint-anchor vs hostile-rhetoric-tier bifurcation.
Lock 2 (Supply): 🟡 HOLDING with bifurcation-explicit — Jul 3 transits 39 vessels carry; "NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window" explicit deepens 7DMA structural signal; UAE 3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow = non-Iran-Gulf compensation confirms; Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn carry; structural GAP 11.4-12.6 mb/d unchanged; Iraq-K-C interim-protocol + KRG-Hostani-200K explicit.
Lock 3 (Insurance): 🟡 HOLDING — Day 88 P&I absence extends; Lloyd's-London market-war-insurance-available carry; Lloyd's/Chubb consortium Day-19 operational; converging containment-signals but quadruple-veto + visible-asymmetry + prayer-leader-unknown + hostile-rhetoric delay re-entry through Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2 + Mon-8am-prayer-leader-question + Aug-Parliament-window.
Lock 4 (Labor): 🟡 HOLDING with easing-signals complicated — Anews-easing + Jul-3-39-transits + Ghalibaf-40M+ + Brent-$72.12 easing-signals; Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn complicates crew-tier-easing; IMO evacuation-paused 256-262H+ (5-day-crossed-by-136-142h).
Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARD — All C201 quadruple-veto carries (Trump-international-waters + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection); Parliament-deferral STRUCTURALLY LOCKED "until next month" per WSJ; Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 hardens; Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor holds.
Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 HOLDING with tightening at edges — IAEA-Bushehr+Tehran-only carry; nuclear/sanctions/regional-security NOT-in-technical-sessions carry.
Lock 7 (Geographic): 🟢 LOOSENING (extends) — Lebanon 8-day-post-kinetic CROSSED (9-day approaches Mon-morning); Iran-Israel PAUSE 36th day; Iran-US kinetic 4-8h+ null; Axios null carry; NO-UKMTO-Jul-5-6.
Lock 8 (Capability): 🟡 HOLDING — Vance-deconfliction-cell carry; no fresh minesweeping deployment; US-still-no-dedicated-minesweepers-in-theater carry.
Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint): 🟡 HOLDING with Houthi-tier locking harder toward empirical-null — Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 144-152h+ UNCONFIRMED locks harder (7-day threshold Mon-eve ~20h); MARAD 2026-006 through Sep-22 carry.
Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARDER — THREE-SONS-VISIBLE + MOJTABA-INVISIBLE = visible-family-asymmetry NEW; Prayer-leader Mon-8am NOT ANNOUNCED = first-visible-legitimacy-test-at-dawn; hiding-since-war-began per JPost; wounded Feb-28 strike; succession-ritual-gap DEEPENS beyond simple-absence into family-visibility-asymmetry-tier; Iran-Deputy-FM speaking without supreme-leader-clarity.
Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🟡 HOLDING — Ras Laffan 8+ empty LNG carriers + Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending 4-day; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry; South Pars carry; no new infrastructure strike C201→C202.

(c) Critical Watch (next 12-96h)

Mon-8am Tehran prayer-leader identity (religious-figure vs family-member vs vacuum)
Any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3 dawn
Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under week-off-restraint vs hostile-rhetoric bifurcation
Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning
Any Trump Truth-Social response to performer-death-call
Any Katz/Israel response to Iran-mobilization-rhetoric + three-sons-appearance
Ghalibaf/Araghchi funeral Day-3 statement-if-any
Iraq-Turkey formal interim-protocol signing pre-Jul-27 (22 days)
Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor into weekly-open
UKMTO/MARAD Mon incident-signal
Al Hamla → China arrival empirical-confirmation (4-day-pending)
Any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence Mon-post-Day-3
Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claims 168h/7-day threshold Mon-eve (~20h out) — full empirical-null-lock
Mashhad burial Jul 9 (3 days) security-posture and Mojtaba appearance-window
Doha Round-2 date-setting post-Mashhad-burial firm-vs-slip
Any Iran unilateral-toll-declaration post-Trump-international-waters-doctrine
30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 pressure — full-lift terminus Jul 18 (13 days)
Any Saudi follow-through on FM-Faisal-anti-fee-plan-front
Total-Hormuz-flow above 10 mb/d sustainability
Whether prayer-leader-vacuum triggers Mon-legitimacy-crisis-signal

(d) Net Assessment

C202 documents a narrow ~4-8h Sun-late-eve → Mon-Asia-open handoff cycle. The delta from C201 is compressed but reveals two significant tightenings, two significant loosenings, and multiple structural confirmations. The two tightenings both concentrate in the Leadership lock: (i) three of Khamenei's sons appeared at mourning while Mojtaba remained invisible per CNN — visible-family-asymmetry-tier NEW; (ii) the Mon-8am prayer scheduled per Hassanzadeh but prayer-leader still not announced — first-visible-test of succession-legitimacy at Mon-dawn. The two loosenings both concentrate in restraint/containment: (i) Trump Mount Rushmore "week off... because we're nice" = restraint-anchor that harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral firm; (ii) Wright-CNBC "no plan right now" to alter SPR drawdown = decision-window-silent-tier confirms mechanically-continuing without fresh second-round. Structural confirmations: KRG director Hostani explicitly names 200K+ bpd preservation via interim protocol (Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands crystallizes at KRG-official-level); hormuzstraitmonitor makes explicit that Jul-3 transits were tanker-gas-heavy inbound + light-products-only outbound with NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window (corridor-bifurcation explicit deepens 7DMA-crude-flow-near-zero structural signal); UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow (non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier confirms). Meanwhile the funeral-stage performer-calls-Trump-death introduces a new hostile-rhetoric-tier from official-Iran-venue that risks funeral-emotional-momentum leaking into anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure post-Jul-9.

Structural-locks pattern (C202): 2 loosening (Price + Geographic — both deepen), 6 holding (Supply-with-bifurcation-explicit, Insurance, Labor-with-easing-complicated, Capability, Dual-Chokepoint, Energy-Infrastructure), 3 tightening (Duration TIGHTENS-HARD-carries + Parliament-deferral-structural-lock-new; Leadership TIGHTENS-HARDER via visible-asymmetry + prayer-leader-unknown; Nuclear-holding-toward-tightening). Aggregate lock-count flat vs C201 but Leadership tightens HARDER (visible-family-asymmetry deepens Mojtaba-absent-Day-2); Duration adds Parliament-deferral-structural-lock explicitly; Supply-bifurcation clarifies from "close-to-zero-7DMA" to "NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-this-window-EXPLICIT" — recovery-tier confirmed as non-crude-heavy while corridor-control still enforced. Absence of P&I re-entry through Day 88 despite Wright-SPR-silent + KRG-200K + 10-mb/d-total-flow + Trump-week-off + Lloyd's-London-clarification + Chubb-Day-19 suggests underwriter-tier deeper into wait-mode pending Mon-8am-prayer-leader-question + Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-firm-date + Aug-Parliament-window resolution.

Trajectory absent intervention: Oil-market accepts containment as base case with UAE-3.9-mb/d + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow strengthening the supply-recovery-tier while corridor "no-crude-departed-this-window" confirms Iran corridor-control still enforced. Political-succession-tier destabilizes visibly at family-visibility-asymmetry-level (three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible) — Mon-8am prayer-leader identity will be the first-visible-legitimacy-test. Substance-tier holds C201 quadruple-veto unchanged with Parliament-deferral now structurally-locked "until next month" per WSJ = deferral extending toward Aug window. The 30-day-blockade-lift-Jul-18-terminus (13 days out) remains the next major inflection meeting quadruple-veto + Iran-toll-post-Aug-18-declared-regime + potential Iran-unilateral-toll-declaration if Muscat refuses. Trump-week-off-framing provides an offsetting restraint-anchor that harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral firm — the funeral-week diplomatic-pause is now bilaterally-framed as intentional-restraint rather than merely-delay. Key uncertainties: (a) Mon-8am prayer-leader identity (religious-figure = one path, family-member-non-Mojtaba = another, vacuum = a third); (b) whether Mojtaba appears at Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 or continues invisible — legitimacy-tier fate at burial-terminus; (c) whether Trump-week-off-restraint-tier survives performer-death-call (does Trump respond via Truth Social?); (d) whether Iran-Parliament vote emerges Aug or continues deferred; (e) whether 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow sustains through Mon-Asia-week and translates to crude-flow-recovery within 96h or "no-crude-departed" persists as structural-signal; (f) whether Wright-SPR-silent tier holds through Mon-Asia-open or a second-round announcement emerges under any fresh shock; (g) whether Katz/Israel breaks from ceasefire-holds under Iran-mobilization-rhetoric.

Source-lens reconciliation notes: (1) India-reserves-3-way-split carry (9-10 / 25 / 69 days) — parallel-source-lens preserved. (2) Araghchi funeral-attendance framing "70+ countries" vs Al Jazeera "100+" carry. (3) Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn vs Jul-3 39-transits carry — corridor-bifurcation confirmed via "no-crude-departed" wiki+argus explicit. (4) Trump-Iran-week-off Mount Rushmore vs Iran-performer-Trump-death funeral-stage = parallel-source-lens on restraint-vs-hostility-tier. (5) Wright-CNBC "no plan right now" vs 40M-bbl-new-solicitation = mechanical-exchange, NOT policy-second-round drawdown — flagged not silently resolved. (6) Prayer-leader-Mon-8am NOT-announced per Hassanzadeh — pending Mon-dawn signal.

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