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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-07-05 · Cycle 2 (C201)

War Day: 128 | Ceasefire Day: 18 | 60-day-clock: Day 18 of 60 (Jun 18 → Aug 18) | 30-day-blockade-lift-clock: Day 18 of 30 (Jun 18 → Jul 18) | Cycle: C201 (c2 of 2026-07-05, Sunday-UTC evening; ~10-14h delta from C200 mid-day).

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP unreachable (list_notes timed out; C200 also NO). Reduced-web-sweep executed against C200 baseline; gaps/contradictions prioritized.

Baseline: C200 / 2026-07-05 mid-day-UTC (KHAMENEI-FUNERAL-DAY-1-UNDERWAY-MOJTABA-INVISIBLE + TRUMP-REJECTS-IRAN-OMAN-FEE-PLAN-OUTRIGHT + JUL-3-TRANSITS-39-CRUDE-FLOW-NEAR-ZERO + POLYMARKET-DEC-31-REVERSES-90.5→83% + BRENT-$72-FRI-WTI-$69-FRI + IRAQ-TURKEY-INTERIM-PROTOCOL-ADVANCING + INDIA-9-10-DAYS-SPR-DIVERGENCE + PARLIAMENT-VOTE-DEFERRED + AXIOS-JUL-4/5-COLLAPSES-TOWARD-NULL + HOUTHI-JUL-1-122H+-UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER + TRIPLE-VECTOR-WINDOW-WITHIN-96H).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-07-05 C201, Sun-UTC evening; ~10-14h delta from C200): C201 = 🔴🔴 KHAMENEI FUNERAL DAY 2 UNDERWAY JUL 5 — MOJTABA STILL ABSENT per CNN Jul-5-live + Japan Times + CBS + EurasiaReview — Day-1-mobilization mourners chanting for revenge extends into Day-2 body-paraded-through-Tehran (Qom Mon → Mashhad Jul-9 burial); Mojtaba does NOT lead prayers Day-2; succession-ritual-gap LOCKS HARDER through funeral-week + 🔴🔴 TRUMP-VETO-RHETORIC HARDENS: "IT'S INTERNATIONAL WATERS. NOBODY'S GOING TO CONTROL IT. WE'RE GOING TO WATCH OVER IT" per CNBC/Gulf News; White House Anna Kelly: "Iran cannot toll the Strait, which is an international waterway"; Iran-Deputy-FM Kazem Gharibabadi: Tehran "will move forward ALONE if Muscat refuses to cooperate" — Iran-unilateral-toll-tier explicitizes; Araghchi: "Strait will NOT return to its prewar status" — status-quo-restoration explicitly rejected by Iran-FM + 🔴 SAUDI FM PRINCE FAISAL BIN FARHAN PUBLICLY REJECTS FEE-PLAN — insists Strait "must return to the status quo before the war" — Saudi-tier crystallizes anti-fee-plan; four-way structural stalemate (Iran $40B/yr mandatory OR unilateral, Oman voluntary, US zero, Saudi status-quo-ante) + 🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG JUL-4: 8 SHIPS U-TURNED FRI-SAT ATTEMPTING OMANI-COAST EXIT — some switched to Iran-directed route (1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier northward); Iran asserting corridor-control still enforced despite recovery-tier + 🟢 DOHA ROUND-2 "AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AFTER FUNERAL CONCLUSION" per Al Jazeera reconfirmed — post-Jul-9 Mashhad burial firm, no specific date set + ⚠️🔴 INDIA WORLD OIL JUL-2: 25 DAYS STRATEGIC RESERVES + INDIA EXPANDING SPR — new third source-lens datapoint layers on 9-10-days-vs-69-days divergence; India-vulnerability-metric-triangulation now three-way + 🟢 NO SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201 — Wright/Trump silent through Sun-eve; SPR 325.7M ~76M above operational-floor; decision-window still active + 🟢 NO UKMTO FRESH INCIDENT JUL 4-5 — clean weekend maritime + 🟢 LEBANON-ISRAEL NO FRESH KINETIC 8-DAY THRESHOLD CROSSED (Jun 28 last kinetic → Jul 5 = Day 8 post-kinetic; 9-day approaches Mon-morning) + 🟢 BLOOMBERG JUL-3 BRENT $72.12 SPOT CONFIRMED — modest-recovery-tier confirms; Sun-eve/Mon-open pending. Ten material C200→C201 datapoints refine ~14h-cycle: (1) 🔴🔴 KHAMENEI-FUNERAL-DAY-2 + MOJTABA-STILL-ABSENT + DID-NOT-LEAD-DAY-2-PRAYERS — succession-ritual-gap LOCKS HARDER. (2) 🔴🔴 TRUMP-VETO-RHETORIC-HARDENS-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-EXPLICIT + White-House-Anna-Kelly — US-substance-tier ossifies. (3) 🔴🔴 IRAN-DEPUTY-FM-GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL-THREAT + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-WILL-NOT-RETURN-PREWAR-STATUS — Iran-substance-tier explicitizes. (4) 🔴 SAUDI-FM-PUBLIC-REJECTION-OF-FEE-PLAN — four-way stalemate. (5) 🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG-JUL-4 8-SHIPS-U-TURNED-FRI-SAT + IRAN-DIRECTED-ROUTE-ALTERNATIVE — Iran-corridor-control still enforced. (6) 🟢 DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-RECONFIRMED — post-Jul-9 firm. (7) ⚠️🔴 INDIA-25-DAYS-PER-WORLD-OIL + SPR-EXPANSION — third source-lens datapoint (9-10 vs 25 vs 69). (8) 🟢 SPR-SILENT-C200→C201 — no fresh announcement. (9) 🟢 UKMTO-CLEAN-WEEKEND + LEBANON-8-DAY-THRESHOLD-CROSSED. (10) 🟢 BRENT-$72.12-JUL-3-CONFIRMED. Net: C201 IS THE POST-C200 ~14H CONSOLIDATION CYCLE. Kinetic-tier extends deep (no fresh 12h+ direct-Iran-US/Iran-Israel/Lebanon-Israel/UKMTO). Structural-substance-tier HARDENS ACROSS FOUR AXES: Iran-unilateral-toll-tier (Gharibabadi + Araghchi); US-international-waters-veto-tier (Trump quote + Kelly); Saudi-anti-fee-tier (Faisal); Oman-voluntary-tier (unchanged). Mojtaba-succession-gap deepens with Day-2 absence — first indication of who WILL lead prayers unclear. Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn confirms Iran-corridor-control still-enforced-despite-vessel-count-recovery. Doha Round-2 firmly post-Jul-9. C200-TRIPLE-VECTOR-WINDOW-STATUS: Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 approaches; Parliament-vote-window-still-open (Iran SITREP no confirmation); SPR-second-round decision-window still-active — none resolved this cycle. Critical 0-12h to Mon-Asia-open: (a) Sun-eve/Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under Trump-veto + Iran-Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-strait-not-prewar; (b) any Mojtaba appearance-signal at funeral Day-3 Mon Qom; (c) Iraq-Turkey interim-protocol-signing formal-timing; (d) any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence post-funeral-Day-2; (e) India-25-vs-9-10-vs-69-days SPR-lens resolution/clarification; (f) US SPR second-round-drawdown decision; (g) UKMTO/MARAD incident-signal into new week; (h) Al Hamla → China arrival empirical confirmation; (i) Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning; (j) Polymarket Dec-31-83% floor-vs-continued-decline into weekly open; (k) any Trump Truth Social response to Iran-Gharibabadi-unilateral-threat; (l) Ghalibaf statement-if-any at funeral Day-3; (m) Katz/Israel response-to-Iran-mobilization-rhetoric.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C200 → C201 DELTAS)

🔴🔴 KHAMENEI FUNERAL DAY 2 UNDERWAY JUL 5 — MOJTABA STILL ABSENT + DID NOT LEAD DAY-2 PRAYERS per CNN Jul-5-live/Japan Times/CBS/EurasiaReview — mourners chant for revenge; body paraded through Tehran; going to Qom Mon then Mashhad Jul 9; succession-ritual gap LOCKS HARDER through funeral-week; first indication of who will lead prayers Day-3+ unclear.

🔴🔴 TRUMP-VETO RHETORIC HARDENS — "IT'S INTERNATIONAL WATERS. NOBODY'S GOING TO CONTROL IT. WE'RE GOING TO WATCH OVER IT" per CNBC + Gulf News; White House Anna Kelly: "Iran cannot toll the Strait, which is an international waterway"; US-substance-tier ossifies into international-waters-doctrine.

🔴🔴 IRAN DEPUTY FM GHARIBABADI: "TEHRAN WILL MOVE FORWARD ALONE IF MUSCAT REFUSES TO COOPERATE" per NBC — Iran-unilateral-toll-tier explicitizes post-Trump-veto; Iran-Oman-parallel-fee-scheme collapses toward Iran-unilateral-fee-tier.

🔴🔴 IRAN FM ARAGHCHI: "STRAIT WILL NOT RETURN TO ITS PREWAR STATUS" per NBC — status-quo-restoration EXPLICITLY REJECTED by Iran-FM; C199-Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 hardens into public commitment.

🔴 SAUDI FM PRINCE FAISAL BIN FARHAN PUBLICLY REJECTS FEE-PLAN — insists Strait "must return to the status quo before the war"; four-way structural stalemate crystallizes: Iran-unilateral-or-$40B/yr; Oman-voluntary; US-international-waters; Saudi-status-quo-ante.

🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG JUL-4: 8 SHIPS U-TURNED FRI-SAT ATTEMPTING OMANI-COAST EXIT — 1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier switched to Iran-directed route northward — Iran corridor-control still enforced despite Jul-3-39-transit-recovery.

🟢 DOHA ROUND-2 "AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AFTER FUNERAL CONCLUSION" per Al Jazeera reconfirmed — post-Jul-9 Mashhad-burial firm; no specific date set.

⚠️🔴 INDIA WORLD OIL JUL-2: 25 DAYS STRATEGIC RESERVES + SPR-EXPANSION-PLANS ANNOUNCED — THIRD source-lens datapoint layers on 9-10 vs 69 divergence; India-vulnerability-metric-triangulation now three-way; India expanding storage + diversifying imports (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil).

🟢 NO US SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201 — Wright/Trump silent through Sun-eve; SPR 325.7M ~76M above operational-floor; decision-window still active.

🟢 NO UKMTO FRESH INCIDENT JUL 4-5 — clean weekend maritime.

🟢 LEBANON-ISRAEL 8-DAY POST-KINETIC THRESHOLD CROSSED — Jun 28 last kinetic → Jul 5 = Day 8; approaches 9-day Mon-morning.

🟢 BLOOMBERG JUL-3 BRENT $72.12 SPOT CONFIRMED — modest recovery-tier confirms per TE/Bloomberg; Sun-eve/Mon-open pending.

🔴 HOUTHI JUL-1 4-VESSEL CLAIMS 130-134H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED — locks harder toward 7-day empirical-null-window (Mon eve).

1. Conflict Status

War Day 128 / Ceasefire Day 18 (Jun 18 → Jul 5) / 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60 / 30-day-blockade-lift-clock Day 18 of 30. C200 → C201 (~10-14h fresh): KHAMENEI-FUNERAL-DAY-2-UNDERWAY-MOJTABA-STILL-ABSENT + TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-VETO + IRAN-DEPUTY-FM-UNILATERAL-TOLL-THREAT + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-WILL-NOT-RETURN-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTS-FEE-PLAN + BLOOMBERG-8-SHIP-U-TURN-FRI-SAT + DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-JUL-9-FIRM + INDIA-25-DAYS-THIRD-LENS + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-INCIDENT-WEEKEND.

Cross-leg status (C201):

🟡 Iran-Israel direct-leg: PAUSE HOLDS — 36th day window; no fresh action 12h+ composite
🟢 Iran-US kinetic-leg STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-14H-DEEPER: Vance "talks going well" carry; Doha Round-1 concludes carry; deconfliction-cell IRGC+CENTCOM carry; ⚠️ IRGC-Mohebi-hotline-denial carry; NO US third-round + NO IRGC third-round 12h+ fresh; ⚠️🔴 AXIOS-JUL-4/5-CLASH-WINDOW COLLAPSES TO NULL (Sun-evening 100% no materialization); 🔴🔴 TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE HARDENS + Anna Kelly quotes NEW; 🔴🔴 IRAN-GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL-THREAT + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR NEW
⏳ Iran-Gulf-state kinetic-leg HOLDS-TRIPLE-FRONT POST-STAND-DOWN: casualty carry; NO fresh Gulf-state strike C200→C201 (12h+)
🔴 Iran-Commercial-tier kinetic-leg HOLDS-AT-KIKU+DELONIX: carries; NO fresh named-commercial-Hormuz-vessel-hit C200→C201 (12h+); ⚠️ container-ship-aground C199-carry
🟢/⚠️🔴 Iran-US blockade-leg TRANSIT-COUNT-IMPROVES-CRUDE-FLOW-STRUCTURAL-U-TURN-CONFIRMED: 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60; 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 = full-lift Jul 18 (13 days out); stand-down "vessels move freely" carries; Treasury 60-day-sanctions-waiver (GL X through Aug 21) carry; TankerTrackers 3.8M-through-Hormuz-post-blockade carry; C200 Jul-3-39-transits (17-in + 22-out) carry; 7-day-MA crude-flow "close to zero" carry; 🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG JUL-4: 8-SHIPS-U-TURNED-FRI-SAT + 4 SHIPS SWITCHED TO IRAN-DIRECTED-ROUTE — Iran-corridor-control still enforced; 🟢 Bloomberg Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot confirmed; Kpler 40-day-forward-target-still-met carry; 🟢 RAS LAFFAN AL HAMLA → CHINA ARRIVAL VERIFICATION STILL-PENDING C200→C201; 🔴 US SPR 325.7M 43-year-low + Semafor "172M-fully-drawn" carry; 🟢 NO SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201
🟡/🔴🔴 Iran-US rhetorical-leg TRUMP-DOCTRINE-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS + IRAN-UNILATERAL-TOLL-EXPLICIT: 🟢 Doha Round-1 "positive progress" carry; 🟢 Vance/Trump "very good meetings" carries; 🟢 DOHA ROUND-2 POST-FUNERAL-CONCLUSION FIRM per Al Jazeera carry; ⚠️🔴 nuclear/sanctions/regional-security NOT DISCUSSED carries; ⚠️ Iran-MFA-denies-US-parallel-track carry; ⚠️ $3B-preliminary<>$6B<>US-denies-triangulation carries; ⚠️ Trump-Truth-Social-escalation carry; 🔴 IAEA-Bushehr+Tehran-only per Ghalibaf carry; 🟢 Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 carry; 🔴 Vance "cannot commit — depends on Iran" carry; 🔴🔴 TRUMP INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE EXPLICIT + WHITE HOUSE ANNA KELLY QUOTES NEW; 🔴🔴 IRAN-GHARIBABADI: "TEHRAN WILL MOVE FORWARD ALONE IF MUSCAT REFUSES" NEW; 🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI: "STRAIT WILL NOT RETURN TO ITS PREWAR STATUS" NEW; 🔴 SAUDI-FM-FAISAL: strait "must return to status quo before war" — publicly rejects fee plan NEW
🔴 Iran intra-elite + intra-state: Ghalibaf-Parliament-Speaker + Baghaei-FM 5-precondition alignment carry; Iran-Army-formal-Hormuz-closure carry; Pezeshkian-$6B-vs-$3B-preliminary-vs-US-denies triangulation carry; Araghchi 30-day carry; Mohebi-IRGC-denies-hotline carry; ⚠️🔴 MOJTABA ABSENT FROM FUNERAL DAY 2 JUL 5 — DID NOT LEAD PRAYERS per CNN Jul-5-live/Japan Times — succession-ritual-gap LOCKS HARDER; hiding-since-war-began per JPost; wounded in Feb-28 strike; only written statements since; ⚠️ IRAN PARLIAMENT VOTE JUL 3-5 STILL NO CONFIRMED OUTCOME through Jul-5 evening — strategic-deferral continues; 🟢 Pezeshkian + Ghalibaf paid respects at Khamenei-remains Fri per Iran SITREP carry; 🟢 Araghchi Sat "peace can only be sustained when comprehensive and inclusive, with no outside interference" carry; 🟢 Araghchi "70+ countries" attendance framing carry (vs Al Jazeera "100+")
🟢🟢 Israel-MOU + Lebanon-leg 🟢 INSTITUTIONAL-COMMITTEE + 🟢🟢 8-DAY-POST-KINETIC-THRESHOLD-CROSSED: Iran-US-Lebanon-committee-formalized carry; 8-day post-kinetic threshold CROSSED Jul 5; 9-day threshold Mon-morning; Berri + Hezbollah-Qassem rejection carries
🟢/⚠️ Qatar (Ras Laffan): 🟢 Qatar PM al-Thani "positive progress" carry; 🟢 Iran-experts-delegation Doha completed round-1 carry; 🟢 Al Hamla → China arrival verification STILL-PENDING C200→C201 (no explicit confirmation surfaced); ⚠️ Qatar remains silent on $3B<>$6B; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity framing carry; 🟢 8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan per OilPrice/Bloomberg carry
🔴 Pakistan (mediator-second-tier): Pakistan-mediator-institutionalizes-carry
🔴🔴 Saudi CRYSTALLIZES-ANTI-FEE-PLAN: 🔴 FM Faisal bin Farhan REJECTS Iran-Oman fee plan publicly + insists status-quo-ante — Saudi-tier joins US in anti-fee-plan-front; E-W pipeline full-capacity carry
🔴 Bahrain / 🔴 Kuwait CONFLICT-ZONE-CARRIES: casualty figures carry; NO fresh strikes C200→C201
⚠️🔴 Yemen/Red Sea-leg CLAIM-TIER 130-134H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER: HOUTHI-DELONIX C186 carry; ⚠️🔴 Houthi-Jul-1 4-vessel-claims empirical-tier unconfirmed extends 130-134h+ (Mon-eve = 168h/7-day); Times of Israel "contradicting reports" carry; MSC-Manzanillo-Haifa IDF-denied carry; MARAD 2026-006 through Sep-22 carry; claim-collapse-toward-empirical-null tier LOCKS HARDER
🟢/⚠️/🔴🔴 Mediation POST-C200-STRUCTURAL-SUBSTANCE-QUADRUPLE-VETO / DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL / KINETIC-CLEAN-14H: 🟢 Iran-US-Lebanon-committee + 🟢 Ghalibaf-5-preconditions + 🟢 Doha-Round-1-concludes + 🟢 Doha-Round-2-POST-FUNERAL-CONCLUSION-FIRM per Al Jazeera + 🟢 Qatar+Pakistan-mediation-institutionalized + 🟢 Vance-"talks-going-well" + 🟢 Trump-"very-good-meetings" + 🟢 60-day-sanctions-waiver-GL-X-Aug-21 + 🟢 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 + 🟢 Lloyd's/Chubb-Day-17 + 🟢 India-96%-recovery-carry + 🟢 Ghalibaf-40M-barrels-empirical carry + 🟢 C200-Jul-3-transits-39 carry + 🟢 BRENT-$72.12-JUL-3-CONFIRMED + 🟢 8-DAY-LEBANON-CROSSED + 🟢 NO-UKMTO-INCIDENT-WEEKEND ↔ 🔴🔴 Nuclear+sanctions+regional-security NOT IN technical sessions carries ↔ 🔴 IAEA-Bushehr+Tehran-only carries ↔ 🔴 Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 carries ↔ 🔴🔴 TRUMP INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + ANNA-KELLY QUOTES NEW ↔ 🔴🔴 GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL-THREAT NEW ↔ 🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR NEW ↔ 🔴 SAUDI-FM-REJECTS-FEE-PLAN NEW ↔ 🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG-JUL-4 8-SHIP-U-TURN-IRAN-ROUTE NEW ↔ ⚠️🔴 Houthi-Jul-1-130-134H+-unconfirmed ↔ ⚠️ Iran-MFA-fake-news carry ↔ ⚠️ IRGC-Mohebi-denies-hotline carry ↔ ⚠️ Baghaei-re-denies-US-meeting carry ↔ ⚠️/🟢/⚠️ $3B<>$6B<>US-denies-triangulation carry ↔ ⚠️ Trump-Truth-Social-escalation-restated carry ↔ 🔴 Araghchi-30-day carry ↔ 🔴 Lebanon-collapse-rhetoric-beneath-committee carry ↔ 🔴 Turkey-K-C-rejection + INTERIM-PROTOCOL-ADVANCING carry ↔ ⚠️🔴 MOJTABA-ABSENT-FROM-FUNERAL-DAY-2 + DID-NOT-LEAD-PRAYERS NEW ↔ IMO-evacuation-paused-252-258H+ ↔ 🔴 POLYMARKET-DEC-31-83% floor holds C200→C201 ↔ ⚠️ PARLIAMENT-VOTE-JUL-3-5-STILL-NO-CONFIRMED-OUTCOME through Sun-eve ↔ 🔴 AXIOS-JUL-4/5-COLLAPSES-TO-NULL ↔ ⚠️🔴 INDIA-25-DAYS-PER-WORLD-OIL THIRD LENS + SPR-EXPANSION NEW

Key Jul 5 evening C201 events (~10-14h fresh delta from C200):

🔴🔴 Khamenei funeral Day 2 Jul 5 underway — mourners chant for revenge; body paraded Tehran → Qom Mon
🔴🔴 Mojtaba STILL absent Day 2 — did not lead prayers; succession-legitimacy-gap LOCKS HARDER
🔴🔴 Trump "international waters" doctrine explicit + White House Anna Kelly quotes
🔴🔴 Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi "Tehran will move forward alone if Muscat refuses"
🔴🔴 Araghchi "Strait will not return to prewar status" — status-quo rejection explicit
🔴 Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan publicly rejects fee-plan — insists status-quo-ante
🟢/⚠️ Bloomberg Jul-4: 8-ship U-turn Fri-Sat; 4 switched to Iran-directed route
🟢 Doha Round-2 "as soon as possible after funeral conclusion" reconfirmed
⚠️🔴 India 25 days per World Oil Jul-2 — third SPR-lens datapoint + expansion plans
🟢 No SPR second-round announcement
🟢 No UKMTO fresh incident weekend
🟢 Lebanon-Israel 8-day post-kinetic threshold crossed Jul 5
🟢 Bloomberg Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot confirmed
⚠️🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel claims 130-134h+ empirical-unconfirmed LOCKS HARDER

Cumulative casualties (C201 CARRY UNCHANGED):

Iran civilians killed: Foundation of Martyrs 3,468 / HRANA 3,636 / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates (CARRY)
Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs (CARRY)
US KIA/wounded: 15 / 543 (CARRY)
Israel: 40 IDF KIA + 28-29 civilians = 69 cumulative + 9,161 injured (CARRY)
Iraq: 119+ deaths (CARRY)
UAE: 13 deaths (CARRY)
Kuwait: 10 deaths + 4 KIA + 7 civilians + 78 + 104 injured (CARRY)
Bahrain: 3 killed + 51 injured (CARRY)
Saudi: 3 killed + 29 injured (CARRY)
Qatar (Ras Laffan): 13 KIA + 66 + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING + 1 Qatar citizen (CARRY)
Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities since Feb 28 (CARRY)
Lebanon: 4,057+ killed + 12,121 wounded (CARRY; 8-day-post-kinetic-crossed Jul 5)
Cross-source total: 7,144-9,676+ killed; ~46,965 injured (CARRY)

Ceasefire likelihood assessment (C201): HOLDS-AT-DOHA-ROUND-1 + ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + KINETIC-CLEAN-14H + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-WEEKEND ↔ SUBSTANCE-QUADRUPLE-VETO-HARDENS. C201 refines C200 ~14h with kinetic-tier extending deep and structural-substance-tier hardening across four axes simultaneously. FOR (containment-vectors — EXTEND): (a) Kinetic clean 14h+ composite (Iran-US, Iran-Israel PAUSE-Day-36, Lebanon-8-day-CROSSED, UKMTO-weekend); (b) Doha Round-2 post-funeral firm per Al Jazeera reconfirmed; (c) Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot confirmed = market-pricing-absorbs C200-shocks without gap-up; (d) No SPR second-round announcement = decision-window-restraint-tier; (e) Axios Jul-4/5 clash-window collapses to NULL (0% materialization Sun-evening). AGAINST (open vectors — HARDEN): (a) TRUMP international-waters-doctrine explicit + Anna Kelly = US veto-tier ossifies into doctrine; (b) Gharibabadi unilateral-toll-threat = Iran-Oman-parallel-fee collapses toward Iran-unilateral-fee-tier post-Trump-veto; (c) Araghchi "strait will not return to prewar status" = Iran-FM explicit rejection of status-quo-restoration; (d) Saudi FM rejects fee-plan publicly = four-way structural stalemate now includes Saudi-anti-fee-front; (e) Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn = Iran corridor-control still enforced despite Jul-3-39-transit-recovery; (f) Mojtaba absent Day-2 + did-not-lead-prayers = succession-ritual-gap deepens through funeral-week; first indication of Day-3 prayer-leader unclear; (g) India-25-days-third-lens = vulnerability-metric-triangulation deepens; (h) Parliament-vote-still-no-confirmed-outcome Sun-eve — deferral-through-funeral extends; (i) Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor holds; (j) Houthi Jul-1 130-134h+ empirical-null locks harder. Critical 0-12h to Mon-Asia-open: (a) Sun-eve/Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under quadruple-veto-hardening; (b) any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3; (c) Iraq-Turkey interim-protocol-signing formal-timing; (d) any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence post-funeral-Day-2; (e) India-25-vs-9-10-vs-69-days SPR-lens resolution; (f) US SPR second-round-decision; (g) UKMTO/MARAD incident into new week; (h) Al Hamla → China arrival empirical confirmation; (i) Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning; (j) Polymarket Dec-31 floor-vs-decline weekly-open; (k) any Trump Truth Social response to Gharibabadi-unilateral-threat; (l) Ghalibaf statement-if-any at funeral Day-3; (m) Katz/Israel response-to-Iran-mobilization-rhetoric.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current Status	Δ vs C200
Transits/day	🟢/⚠️ JUL-3: 39 VESSELS (17-IN + 22-OUT) per hormuzstraitmonitor carry ≈ 46% of pre-war 84/day baseline; JUL-4 STRAITS.LIVE: 27 carry; hormuztracking.com "4 vessels 0.0 knots" real-time; Kpler 30-day-forward 40-target carry; 7-day-moving-average crude flow "close to zero" carry; BLOOMBERG JUL-4 8-SHIP U-TURN FRI-SAT NEW; IMO evacuation-paused 252-258H+	🟢/⚠️ 8-U-TURN-NEW / OTHERWISE CARRY
Iran formal closure	IRAN ARMY FORMAL HORMUZ CLOSURE carry; FM sequences preconditions carry; STAND-DOWN supersedes; Araghchi "30-day-sole-control" carry; ⚠️ IRGC-MOHEBI PUBLIC HOTLINE DENIAL carry; Ghalibaf-Parliament-Speaker 5-preconditions carry; ⚠️ Iran-MFA denies US-parallel-track carry; 🟢 Iran seeks int'l Hormuz-authority acknowledgement carry; tolls post-Aug-18 carry; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT VOTE JUL 3-5: NO CONFIRMED OUTCOME through Sun-evening — strategic-deferral extends; 🟢 IRAN-OMAN PARALLEL FEE SCHEME carry ↔ 🔴🔴 TRUMP "INTERNATIONAL WATERS" DOCTRINE + ANNA KELLY quote NEW ↔ 🔴🔴 GHARIBABADI: "TEHRAN WILL MOVE FORWARD ALONE IF MUSCAT REFUSES" NEW ↔ 🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI: "STRAIT WILL NOT RETURN TO PREWAR STATUS" NEW ↔ 🔴 SAUDI-FM PUBLIC REJECTION NEW	🔴🔴/🔴 QUADRUPLE-VETO / VOTE-DEFERRED
IRGC Navy kinetic enforcement	C186 carries; NO fresh IRGC kinetic action C200→C201 (14h+ composite); STAND-DOWN extends 14h deeper + Vance-deconfliction-cell-Hormuz carry; ⚠️🔴 AXIOS-JUL-4/5-CLASH-WINDOW COLLAPSES TO NULL (Sun-evening 100% no materialization)	🟢/🔴 EXTENDS / AXIOS-NULL
JMIC threat level	🔴 SUBSTANTIAL CONFIRMED carry; JMIC widened southern Oman route carry	🔴 LOCKED
US kinetic enforcement (Hormuz response)	C186-carry; NO US third-round in 14h+ fresh composite; MUTUAL STAND-DOWN + Vance "talks going well" carry; Witkoff+Kushner-Qatar-PM carry; Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism carry; 🟢 Doha Round-1 concludes carry; 🟢 Doha Round-2 post-funeral firm; 🟢 Trump "very good meetings" carry; ⚠️ Vance "cannot commit — depends on Iran" carry; 🔴🔴 TRUMP INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + ANNA-KELLY QUOTE NEW-SUBSTANCE-OSSIFICATION	🟢/🔴🔴 EXTENDS-14H / TRUMP-DOCTRINE
Tanker compliance / corridor enforcement	AZUMASAN+BLUE-STAR-I + KIKU+DELONIX carries; NO new Hormuz vessel hit C200→C201 (14h+); STAND-DOWN "vessels move freely"; 🟢 Ghalibaf 40M+ barrels since Jun 18 at 20% premium carry; 🔴 TASS/Bloomberg 68M-barrels-afloat carry; 🟢 3.8M through Hormuz post-blockade per TankerTrackers carry; 🟢/⚠️ Jul-3 transits 39 carry; 🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG JUL-4: 8 SHIPS U-TURNED FRI-SAT + 4 SWITCHED TO IRAN-DIRECTED ROUTE (1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier northward) — Iran corridor-control still enforced; 🟢 RAS-LAFFAN AL HAMLA → CHINA VERIFICATION STILL-PENDING; ⚠️🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claim 130-134H+ UNCONFIRMED LOCKS HARDER; ⚠️ container-ship-aground C199-carry	🟢/⚠️ 8-U-TURN-NEW / AL-HAMLA-PENDING
Iran-Oman joint transit committee + bilateral channel	🟢 IRAN-OMAN FIRST-HORMUZ-TALKS carry; Bloomberg + Araghchi-Albusaidi + Ghalibaf-Muscat carries; 🟢 Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism carry ↔ ⚠️ IRGC-Mohebi-denies-hotline carry ↔ ⚠️🔴 Qatar-FM-no-US-Iran-meeting carries ↔ ⚠️ Iran-MFA-denies-US-parallel-track carry; 🟢 Doha Round-1 concludes + Round-2 post-funeral-firm carries; 🟢 Pakistan-mediator institutionalized carry; 🟢 Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 crystallizes carry; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT VOTE NO CONFIRMED OUTCOME extends; 🟢/🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN PARALLEL FEE SCHEME carry + TRUMP-VETO carry + GHARIBABADI UNILATERAL-THREAT NEW + ARAGHCHI PREWAR-STATUS-NOT-RETURNING NEW + SAUDI-FM REJECTION NEW	🔴🔴 QUADRUPLE-VETO-HARDENS
Strait status	ALL C200 CARRY + KHAMENEI-FUNERAL-DAY-2-UNDERWAY-MOJTABA-STILL-ABSENT + TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + ANNA-KELLY + GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL-THREAT + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTS-FEE-PLAN + BLOOMBERG-JUL-4-8-SHIP-U-TURN + DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + INDIA-25-DAYS-THIRD-LENS + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-WEEKEND + AXIOS-COLLAPSES-TO-NULL + PARLIAMENT-VOTE-STILL-DEFERRED + MUTUAL-STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-14H	🟢/⚠️/🔴🔴 10 MATERIAL DELTAS
Iran kinetic activity — Hormuz-leg	All prior entries carry; NO new IRGC kinetic action C200→C201 (14h+) + STAND-DOWN + Vance-deconfliction-cell; 🔴 AXIOS-JUL-4/5 COLLAPSES TO NULL	🟢/🔴 EXTENDS / AXIOS-NULL
Iran-Israel direct-leg	PAUSE HOLDS — 36th day window; no fresh action 14h+	🟢 EXTENDS
US blockade — political	OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-14H-DEEPER; 🟢 US Treasury 60-day-sanctions-waiver (GL X through Aug 21) carry; 🟢 30-DAY-BLOCKADE-LIFT DAY 18 OF 30 → JUL 18 TERMINUS (13 DAYS OUT) carry; $3B-preliminary<>$6B<>US-denies triangulation carry; QATAR-FM-NO-US-IRAN-MEETING carry; ⚠️ BAGHAEI-RE-DENIES + Iran-MFA denies US-parallel-track carry; SENATE-WAR-POWERS-RESOLUTION carry; GCC-COLLECTIVE-DEFENSE-FIRST carry; ⚠️ TRUMP-RESTATED + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + 🟢 IRAN-US-LEBANON-COMMITTEE-FORMALIZED + 🟢 IRAN-DEL-DOHA-COMPLETED-ROUND-1 + 🟢 BAGHAEI-5-PRECONDITIONS + 🟢 GHALIBAF-PARLIAMENT-5-PRECONDITIONS + 🟢 QATAR-PM-AL-THANI-WITKOFF-KUSHNER-TUE + 🟢 TRUMP-HAILS-VERY-GOOD-MEETINGS + 🟢 VANCE-"TALKS-GOING-WELL" + 🟢 PAKISTAN-MEDIATOR-INSTITUTIONALIZED + 🟢 DOHA-ROUND-1-CONCLUDES + 🟢 DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM ↔ 🔴 NUCLEAR+SANCTIONS+REGIONAL-SECURITY-NOT-IN-TECHNICAL + 🔴 IAEA-BUSHEHR+TEHRAN-ONLY + 🔴 IRAN-TOLL-PLAN-POST-AUG-18 + ⚠️ PARLIAMENT-VOTE-DEFERRED + 🔴🔴 TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + ANNA-KELLY NEW + 🔴🔴 GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL-THREAT NEW + 🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR NEW + 🔴 SAUDI-FM-FAISAL REJECTS-FEE-PLAN NEW	🔴🔴 QUADRUPLE-VETO-NEW / 🟢 DAY-18-CARRY
US blockade — physical	OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60; 30-day-blockade-lift-clock Day 18 of 30 → JUL 18 FULL-LIFT-TERMINUS (13 DAYS); 🟢 Ghalibaf-40M+-barrels + TankerTrackers-3.8M-through-Hormuz carry; 🔴 TASS/Bloomberg 68M-barrels-afloat carry; 🟢/⚠️ Jul-3 39-transits + 7DMA-crude-near-zero carry; 🟢/⚠️ BLOOMBERG-JUL-4 8-SHIP-U-TURN + IRAN-DIRECTED-ROUTE NEW; 🟢 RAS-LAFFAN AL HAMLA → CHINA VERIFICATION STILL-PENDING; still-substantial-backlog carry; IMO 252-258H+ 5-DAY-CROSSED-BY-132-138H; KIKU+DELONIX carries; STAND-DOWN "vessels move freely" carry; 🔴 US SPR 325.7M 43-year-low + Semafor "172M-fully-drawn" carry; 🟢 NO SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201; NO third-round 14h+	🟢/🔴/⚠️ 8-U-TURN-NEW / IMO-DEEPENS-14H
India safe passage	DISHA EMPIRICAL ARRIVAL carries; 🟢 INDIA 96%-RECOVERY per PIB carry; non-Hormuz 70%; LPG 54K t/d; PNG/CNG zero-disruption; India June crude imports >5 mb/d empirical carry; Russia + UAE dominant carry; ⚠️🔴 INDIA STRATEGIC RESERVES: THREE-WAY SOURCE-LENS SPLIT — 9-10 DAYS per Outlook/PSUWatch (SPR-strict) vs 25 DAYS per World Oil Jul-2 (SPR-broader) vs 69 DAYS per Zero Carbon (total-supply-days-incl-private-stocks) — divergence deepens; 🟢 INDIA SPR-EXPANSION PLANS + DIVERSIFICATION (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil) per World Oil Jul-2 NEW	⚠️🔴/🟢 THREE-WAY-LENS + SPR-EXPANSION-NEW

3. Tanker Attack Log (cumulative since Feb 28)

Running total: 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities (IMO cumulative). C201 DELTA: ⚠️🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claims 130-134H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO/MARAD (LOCKS HARDER — 7-day threshold Mon-eve); NO new Hormuz vessel hits C200→C201 (14h+ fresh); Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn = non-kinetic corridor-control enforcement; container-ship-aground C199-carry.

Date	Vessel	Flag	Location	Damage	Casualties	Delta
Jul 4 (Bloomberg)	8 SHIPS TOTAL — U-TURNED Fri-Sat; 1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier switched to Iran-directed route northward	Various	Hormuz (attempting Omani-coast exit → Iran-directed route)	Non-kinetic maritime incident — Iran corridor-control enforcement	None	⚠️ NEW U-TURN-4
Jul 2 (report)	Container ship (unnamed)	Unspecified	Strait of Hormuz	AGROUND during "unauthorized transit" per Iranian authorities; non-kinetic maritime incident	(none reported)	C199 CARRY
Jul 1 (claim)	M/T Delonix (2nd Houthi claim)	Liberia	Red Sea	Houthis claim strike — 130-134H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO	(none reported)	⚠️🔴 UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim)	MSC Unific	(MSC-Zurich)	Arabian Sea	Houthis claim strike — 130-134H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO	(none reported)	⚠️🔴 UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim)	Anvil Point (British sealift)	UK-flag/RFA	Indian Ocean	Houthis claim strike — 130-134H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO	(none reported)	⚠️🔴 UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim)	Lucky Sailor	(various)	Mediterranean Sea	Houthis claim strike — 130-134H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO	(none reported)	⚠️🔴 UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER
Jul 1 (claim/denied)	MSC Manzanillo (Portugal-flag)	Portugal	Haifa (docked)	Houthis + Islamic Resistance in Iraq claim — IDF-DENIED per Times of Israel	(none)	CARRY
Jun 28 ~03:00 local	M/T Delonix (1st)	Liberia	NW Al Hudaydah (Red Sea)	None — vessel escaped per UKMTO	None	CARRY
Jun 27 ~08:00 UTC	VLCC Kiku	Panama	Gulf (Al Shaheen → Singapore via Fujairah)	Bridge starboard wing damage; 2M bbl cargo intact	None	CARRY
Jun 26 (Thu)	M/V Ever Lovely	Singapore	Hormuz approaches (Gulf of Oman)	Projectile hit confirmed; vessel operational	None	CARRY
Jun 8-9	M/V Tavvishi + M/V Norderney	Various	Gulf of Aden	Houthi missile strikes	(carry)	CARRY
Various (Mar-Jun)	Azumasan, Blue Star I, 3 unnamed	Various	Hormuz	NAMED U-TURN — no impacts	None	CARRY
(priors)	Multiple incidents	Various	Hormuz / Red Sea / Iraq terminals	Mixed	14 cumulative fatalities	CARRY

Neutral-state-infrastructure attacks (flagged separately):

Ras Laffan (Qatar, Mar 18): 13 KIA + 66 + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING + 1 Qatar citizen — CARRY
Port Salman / Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain, C186): 3 killed + 51 injured CARRY
Ali Al Salem (Kuwait, C186): 4 KIA + 7 civilians + 78 + 104 injured CARRY
🔴 SAUDI: 3 KILLED + 29 INJURED CARRY

IRGC friendly-fire incidents: No new C200→C201.

4. Oil Prices

Benchmark	Current	Prior Cycle (C200)	Pre-war (Feb 27)	Peak (Mar 8)	Δ
Brent spot	🟢 $72.12 JUL-3 SPOT PER BLOOMBERG/TE CONFIRMED; Jul-3 close ~$72 thin trading; Sun-eve/Mon-Asia open PENDING	~$72 estimate	~$70	$119-126	🟢 CONFIRMED
Brent futures (front month)	🟢 ~$72 per TE carry	$72 estimate	~$70	$119-126	🟢 CONFIRMED
WTI	🟢 ~$69 FRI JUL 3 per macrotrends carry	~$69	~$66 (pre-war ~$66-70)	~$115	🟢 CARRY
Oman/Dubai	Not surfaced in 14h window	(carry)	—	—	CARRY
VLCC day rates	🔴 TD3C $423K peak per Lloyd's List carry; VLCCs near $470K/day per OilPrice carry; spot ~$200K/day Gulf-China per S&P Global carry; 🟢/⚠️ Anews-easing-shipping-costs carry	Same carry	~$50K/d	~$200K+ March peak	🔴/🟢 CARRY / EASING-CARRY
Brent Q2 quarterly	🟢 -15% Q2 CONFIRMED carry	-15%	—	—	🟢 CARRY
WTI Q2 quarterly	🟢 -30% Q2 CONFIRMED carry	-30%	—	—	🟢 CARRY
Iran export price (per Ghalibaf)	🟢 20% premium above pre-war per TASS/al-Arabiya/CNBC carry — implied ~$86 if pre-war ~$72	(carry)	~$70	—	🟢 CARRY
TankerTrackers Iran-afloat volume	🔴 UP TO 68M BARRELS AFLOAT carry — "unsold-barrels-pile-up-at-sea" per OilPrice framing carry; 3.8M through Hormuz post-blockade carry	(carry)	—	—	🔴 CARRY
Polymarket normalization odds	🔴 JUL 15: 6% (FLAT vs C200) + JUL 31: 18% (FLAT vs C200) + DEC-31: 83% (FLAT vs C200) + JUL 7: 6% (FLAT vs C200) per Polymarket Sun-eve carry — floor holds through Sun-eve	Jul-15 6% / Jul-31 18% / Dec-31 83% / Jul-7 6%	—	—	🔴 FLAT-FLOOR-HOLDS

Threshold crossings: No new $100/$120 threshold. Brent $72.12 Jul-3 confirmed; Sun-eve/Mon-Asia open PENDING. Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor holds C200→C201 (~14h no further decline). Near-term (Jul-7 6% / Jul-15 6% / Jul-31 18%) also flat.

Analyst forecasts (this cycle):

🟢 Goldman Sachs Q4 Brent $80 (cut from $90) carry
🟢 WTI Q2 -30% + Brent Q2 -15% structural compression carry
🟢 LiteFinance forecast: WTI $67.93-$71.84 range consolidation carry
⚠️ Market analysis: Iran Parliament ratification-rejection could trigger WTI-$90 within 48h — Parliament vote still no confirmed outcome through Sun-eve = deferral-tier extends; ratification-rejection tier COLLAPSES toward-null through funeral-week
No fresh JPM / EIA forecasts C200→C201

Geopolitical statements affecting price (C200→C201 NEW):

🔴🔴 Trump "international waters" doctrine explicit + White House Anna Kelly quote — US-veto-tier ossifies into doctrine
🔴🔴 Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi: "Tehran will move forward alone if Muscat refuses" per NBC — Iran-unilateral-toll-tier explicitizes
🔴🔴 Araghchi: "Strait will not return to its prewar status" per NBC — status-quo rejection explicit
🔴 Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan publicly rejects fee-plan — insists status-quo-ante
🟢/⚠️ Bloomberg Jul-4: 8-ship U-turn Fri-Sat + 4 switched to Iran-directed route — Iran corridor-control enforcement
🟢 Doha Round-2 post-funeral firm per Al Jazeera reconfirmed
⚠️🔴 India 25-days per World Oil Jul-2 + SPR-expansion + diversification (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil) — third source-lens
🟢 No SPR second-round announcement C200→C201
🟢 Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot confirmed per Bloomberg/TE
🟢 No UKMTO fresh incident weekend
🟢 Lebanon 8-day post-kinetic threshold crossed Jul 5
🔴 Mojtaba still absent Day-2 + did not lead prayers per CNN/Japan Times

Sun-eve/Mon-Asia open PENDING under structural-substance-quadruple-veto hardening. Tail scenarios: $75-80 (if Iran unilateral-toll-declaration post-funeral OR Mojtaba emerges hardliner OR Parliament ratifies-post-funeral); $80-90 (if Iran-Parliament-rejection triggers formal toll-demand); $90-100 (if IRGC-third-round); $98-110 (if nuclear/Iraq-K-C-closure/Houthi-systemic-Bab-el-Mandeb). Downside: WTI $65-67 (if Doha Round-2 breakthrough / P&I re-entry / sustained 40+/day transits + crude-flow-actually-recovers + 30-day-full-lift Jul 18 unopposed).

5. SPR

IEA coordinated release status:

Release	Announced	Barrels	Physical Delivery Status	Δ
US SPR (March cadence)	Mar	172M bbl program	🔴 325.7M BBL total for week ending Jun 26 — LOWEST SINCE MAY 1983 carry; 43-YEAR-LOW; 🔴 Semafor "172M FIRST-ROUND FULLY DRAWN" first week of July carry; ~76M above 150M operational floor; 🟢 NO SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201 — decision-window still active	🟢 SILENT-C200→C201
IEA-coordinated (30-nation)	Mar	400M bbl program	Continues per March cadence carry; Japan 80M bbl release Mar 16 ongoing	CARRY
US Treasury 60-day sanctions waiver (GL X)	Jun 22	Through Aug 21, 2026	🟢 CONFIRMED per state.gov Iran-sanctions carry	🟢 EXPLICIT-EXPIRY-CARRY
US 30-day-blockade-lift-clock	Jun 18	Physical blockade removal	🟢 DAY 18 OF 30 → JUL 18 FULL-LIFT-TERMINUS (13 DAYS OUT) carry	🟢 DAY-18-CARRY
US replenishment plans (Wright)	Mar	"more than replace" 200M within next year	133M bbl contracted per DOE/thehill; returned "beginning early next year"; swap-contract framing carries; 86M first solicitation carry	CARRY
NEW release announcements C200→C201	—	—	NONE per energy.gov / eia.gov (14h fresh) — decision-window-restraint-tier	NULL

Country reserves table:

Country	Reserve Days	Emergency Actions	Δ
Japan	254 days; 80M-bbl Mar 16 release ongoing; 350M-bbl onshore ~150 days per Zero Carbon carry; 200+ days per IEA-lens	Continues; no new emergency	CARRY
South Korea	208 days carry; 200+ days per IEA-lens	(carry)	CARRY
China	~108-120 days; 1.2B bbl strategic per Zero Carbon carry	(carry)	CARRY
India	⚠️🔴 THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE FLAGGED: 9-10 days per Outlook/PSUWatch (SPR-strict-lens) vs 25 days per World Oil Jul-2 NEW (SPR-broader-lens) vs 69 days per Zero Carbon (total-supply-days-incl-private-stocks); 🟢 INDIA SPR-EXPANSION PLANS + DIVERSIFICATION (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil) per World Oil Jul-2 NEW; 🟢 96%-recovery + June >5 mb/d empirical carry; non-Hormuz 70% carry; India second-largest Hormuz-crude-destination at 14.7% per IEA carry; highest-vulnerability-tier alongside Japan-Korea (risk score 4.9) per Zero Carbon carry	⚠️🔴/🟢 THREE-WAY-LENS + SPR-EXPANSION-NEW
US (NEW FLOOR)	🔴 SPR 325.7M — LOWEST SINCE MAY 1983 carry per Fortune/TradingView/CBS; 🔴 Semafor 172M-program-terminus CONFIRMED "first week of July" carry; 🟢 NO SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201 — decision-window still active; ~76M above 150M operational floor; Wright-swap-1.25× carry	🔴/🟢 172M-DRAWN + SECOND-ROUND-SILENT
Philippines	EO 110 emergency stands carry; PAL cliff arrived Jun 30 carry	🔴 CLIFF-CARRY	CARRY

SPR runway math: Cumulative ~572M bbl committed (172M US + 400M IEA program) + 60-day-sanctions-waiver-GL-X-Aug-21 + 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 → Jul 18 + Ghalibaf-40M+-barrels-Iran-empirical + TASS-68M-afloat + India June-empirical + Persian Gulf 75%-recovery + Qatar-LNG-loading + Jul-3-39-transits carry. 🔴 US SPR 325.7M at 43-year-low; 172M first-round FULLY DRAWN per Semafor confirmed; 🟢 NO SPR second-round announcement C200→C201 = decision-window-restraint tier extends. Empirical Iran-40-68M-barrels-flow + Brent-$72.12-Jul-3-confirmed + Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-ship-U-turn suggests structural supply-tier absorbing WITHOUT SPR second-round despite Iran corridor-control enforcement; decision-window pressure crystallizes into Mon-Asia-open.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity (mb/d)	Utilization (mb/d)	Spare (mb/d)	Status	Δ
Saudi East-West (Petroline)	7.0	Full capacity since Mar 11 per Al Jazeera/Fortune/Argus	0	At-cap	CARRY
UAE ADCOP	1.5 → 1.8 max flex	1.06 (71% util) per IEA	0.44	Spare; UAE Habshan-Fujairah operational; UAE 573K bpd to India June carry	CARRY
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan	0.5 → 0.77 (ramp 2.5mo); contract expires Jul 27 (DAY 22 OUT)	🟢 ~230K bpd total via K-C (of which ~90K bpd Basra crude via K1-Sarlu) per Kurdistan24 carry; 200K+ bpd via Ceyhan per Turkish Minute Jul-4 (interim protocol preserving flow) carry	—	🔴 TURKEY FORMALLY REJECTS K-C 30-day extension carry; 🟢 INTERIM PROTOCOL RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING per Turkish Minute Jul-4 + Türkiye Today carry — 1-year post-expiry extension prepared; 🟢 Iraq Foreign Ministry Fri: interim protocol "expected to be signed" per Discovery Alert carry; 🟢 Basra→K-C northern-shift accelerating carry; 🟢 Turkey-new-deal-Basra 450K bpd carry; 🟢 Iraq Basra-Haditha 700km 2.5 mb/d project carry; 22 DAYS TO FORMAL EXPIRY	🟢/🔴 PROTOCOL-ADVANCING-CARRY / 22-DAY-COUNTDOWN
Iraq $5B southern→Ceyhan/Baniyas/Aqaba pipeline	2.5 (long-dated)	—	—	🟢 BASRA-HADITHA 700km work carry	🟢 CARRY
Oman ports (Duqm, Salalah)	(carry)	(carry)	—	(carry)	CARRY
Egypt SUMED	(carry)	(carry)	—	(carry)	CARRY
Cape of Good Hope rerouting	(variable)	(variable)	—	Maersk + MSC + CMA CGM + Hapag-Lloyd all on Cape through 2026 carry	CARRY

GAP: 11.4-12.6 mb/d unbridgeable carry (pre-war ~20 mb/d Hormuz crude+condensate vs ~7.4-8.6 mb/d operational bypass capacity at max flex). Turkey-Iraq interim-protocol RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING carry preserves 200K+ bpd through Ceyhan post-Jul-27 formal-expiry = pipeline-terminus soft-lands rather than hard-cutoff; K-C-Day-22-countdown still ACTIVE. Structural GAP unchanged C200→C201; real-time-flow-recovery + Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-ship-U-turn + market-pricing-tier confirm containment despite quadruple-veto-hardening.

7. Maritime Insurance

Parameter	Current	Δ
War risk premium %	🟡 Hormuz premiums rose from 0.2% to 1% of hull value (~$800K/VLCC voyage carry); Lloyd's List "$10M-$14M charterer's account extreme cases" carry; ~1% Persian Gulf per S&P Global Lloyd's List carry; Lloyd's/Chubb consortium rates 0.8-1.5% carry; 8.0x pre-crisis baseline carry; 🟢/⚠️ Anews Jul-2 "easing" signal carry	🟢 CARRY / EASING-CARRY
P&I club coverage status	ALL 12 International Group P&I clubs cancelled non-poolable war risks carry; liability coverage through P&I Clubs is non-cancellable and remains reinsured in London per Howden Re / Lloyd's List Jul-2026 carry; Day 88 of P&I absence extends → Day 88 (Jul 5)	CARRY-DAY-88
Lloyd's-London war-risk availability (CLARIFICATION)	🟢 "War insurance available in Lloyd's/London company market for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz" per Lloyd's List Jul-2026 carry; Lloyd's writes 70-80% of world marine-war-business	🟢 CARRY-CLARIFIED
VLCC day rates	🔴 TD3C peak $423,736/day per Lloyd's List carry; some VLCCs near $470K/day per OilPrice carry; spot ~$200K/day Gulf-China per S&P Global carry; rate doubled ~$106K → >$190K/day post-MoU carry; 🟢/⚠️ Anews "easing" carry	🔴 CARRY / EASING-CARRY
Lloyd's/Chubb consortium ($400M)	🟢 DAY 17 → DAY 18 OPERATIONAL CONFIRMED-EXTENDS per Lloyd's/InsuranceJournal/InsuranceBusiness/Reinsurance-News carry — $200M hull+P&I + $200M cargo; Chubb lead; rates 0.8-1.5%	🟢 DAY-18-EXTENDS
DFC reinsurance program	🟢 CONFIRMED $40B carry per irregular warfare + WEF	🟢 CARRY
BIMCO surcharge	No formal Gulf surcharge update C200→C201	CARRY
Crew refusal rate	Hormuz-tier carry; LMA "safety not insurance" framing per lmalloyds carry; 🟢/⚠️ Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship-U-turn signals crew-tier still cautious despite easing-signals; Ghalibaf-40M+-empirical + TASS-68M-afloat + Brent-$72-carry easing carry	🟢/⚠️ U-TURN-COMPLICATES-EASING
Fixture cancellations	🔴 IMO evacuation paused 252-258H+ — 5-DAY THRESHOLD CROSSED BY 132-138H; Dominguez decision at +10-day horizon	🔴 -14H-DEEPER

P&I re-entry absence: Day 88. Single strongest structural de-escalation indicator. NO P&I club has re-entered Gulf coverage. First re-entry would be major signal. No re-entry signal C200→C201; Lloyd's-Chubb consortium Day-18-confirmed + Lloyd's-London-market-war-insurance-available-clarification + Ghalibaf-40M+-barrels-empirical + Jul-3-39-transits + Brent-$72.12-confirmed + Doha-Round-1-concludes + Round-2-post-funeral-firm provide converging parallel-substance for potential re-assessment — but TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + IRAN-GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTION + MOJTABA-SUCCESSION-GAP + BLOOMBERG-JUL-4-8-SHIP-U-TURN delay any re-entry decision through weekend and into Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-firm-date-setting.

8. Shadow Fleet

No new OFAC designation C200→C201 (14h+ fresh) per home.treasury.gov / state.gov (OFAC 19 vessels + Hengli Petrochemical Dalian teapot + ~40 shipping firms cumulative carries)
🟢 US Treasury 60-day sanctions waiver (GL X through Aug 21) carry — partial-lift of Iran oil sanctions
🟢 Ghalibaf: Iran exported 40M+ barrels since Jun 18 at 20% premium carry; TankerTrackers 3.8M-through-Hormuz-post-blockade carry
🔴 TASS/Bloomberg UP TO 68M BARRELS IRANIAN OIL AFLOAT AT SEA carry — "unsold-barrels-pile-up-at-sea" per OilPrice framing carry
🔴 Iran's oil exports fell more than 90% in May per Kharon carry — pre-blockade-lift context
🟢 State Department cumulative sanctions carry (State Dept + Treasury combined; Trump-admin >180 vessels sanctioned since resumed office carry)
No fresh GRU/Wagner militarization signal C200→C201
No fresh IRGC friendly-fire incident C200→C201
Shadow fleet size confirmed 1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet) baseline carry

9. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Key Actions	Risk Level
US	Ceasefire-holds carry + STAND-DOWN + 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 + 60-day-sanctions-waiver GL X Aug-21	Vance "talks going well"; Trump "very good meetings"; Witkoff+Kushner-Qatar-PM carry; Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism; 🔴🔴 TRUMP "INTERNATIONAL WATERS" DOCTRINE + WHITE HOUSE ANNA KELLY QUOTES NEW; SPR 172M-fully-drawn decision-window silent; 🟢 Doha Round-2 post-funeral firm	🔴🔴 DOCTRINE-EXPLICIT-NEW
Israel	Ceasefire-holds carry + Israel-not-signatory-to-Iran-MoU carry	Israel-Hayom Jul-2 "final stretch" funeral prep carry; Katz-hardens carry; Israel-assassination-threat driving Mojtaba-absence per RFERL/JPost	🔴 CARRY / SUCCESSION-DRIVER
Iran	Ghalibaf-Parliament-Speaker + Baghaei-FM 5-precondition alignment carry; Araghchi "30-day-sole-control" carry	⚠️🔴 MOJTABA STILL ABSENT FROM FUNERAL DAY-2 + DID NOT LEAD PRAYERS per CNN Jul-5-live/Japan Times/CBS; hiding-since-war-began per JPost; wounded Feb-28 strike per Wikipedia; ⚠️ PARLIAMENT VOTE JUL 3-5: STILL NO CONFIRMED OUTCOME through Sun-eve — deferral-through-funeral extends; 🟢 Pezeshkian + Ghalibaf paid respects at Khamenei-remains Fri per Iran SITREP carry; 🟢 Araghchi "peace when comprehensive and inclusive, no outside interference" carry; 20M expected at funeral per RFERL carry; 🔴🔴 IRAN DEPUTY FM GHARIBABADI: "TEHRAN WILL MOVE FORWARD ALONE IF MUSCAT REFUSES" NEW; 🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI: "STRAIT WILL NOT RETURN TO PREWAR STATUS" NEW; 🟢 Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 carry	🔴🔴 SUCCESSION-DAY-2 / UNILATERAL-TOLL-NEW
Saudi	E-W pipeline full capacity 7.0 mb/d carry	🔴 FM PRINCE FAISAL BIN FARHAN PUBLICLY REJECTS IRAN-OMAN FEE-PLAN + INSISTS "STATUS QUO BEFORE WAR" NEW — Saudi joins US anti-fee-plan front	🔴 ANTI-FEE-EXPLICIT-NEW
UAE	ADCOP 71% util; UAE-573K-bpd-to-India-June carry	(carry)	🟢 CARRY
Qatar	Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending; 8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan per OilPrice/Bloomberg	Qatar-PM al-Thani "positive progress" carry; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity framing carry	🟢 CARRY
Oman	Iran-Oman parallel-fee-scheme voluntary-framing carry	🔴🔴 TRUMP WARNED OMAN AGAINST COOPERATING WITH IRAN carry + Iran-Deputy-FM Gharibabadi threatens Iran-unilateral-if-Muscat-refuses NEW	🔴🔴 UNDER-DUAL-PRESSURE-NEW
Iraq	K-C ~230K bpd via K-C; Basra-shift accelerating carry	🟢 INTERIM PROTOCOL RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING per Turkish Minute/Türkiye Today carry — Iraq FM Fri: "expected to be signed"; Basra-Haditha 700km 2.5 mb/d project carry; K-C formal-expiry Day 22 out	🟢 PROTOCOL-ADVANCING-CARRY
Kuwait	Conflict-zone-casualty carry	(no fresh action)	🔴 CARRY
Bahrain	Conflict-zone-casualty carry	(no fresh action)	🔴 CARRY
China	108-120 days reserves carry; ~90% Iran-oil-purchaser per Kharon carry	Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending; teapot-refinery-imports carry	🟢 CARRY
India	⚠️🔴 THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE: 9-10-days-SPR-strict vs 25-days-SPR-broader (per World Oil Jul-2 NEW) vs 69-days-total-supply-days carry; 96%-recovery + June >5 mb/d carry; 14.7% Hormuz-crude-destination per IEA; highest-vulnerability-tier alongside Japan-Korea (risk score 4.9) per Zero Carbon carry; 🟢 SPR-EXPANSION + DIVERSIFICATION (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil) per World Oil Jul-2 NEW	⚠️🔴/🟢 THREE-LENS-DEEPENS + EXPANSION-NEW
Japan	254 days; 80M-bbl Mar 16 release ongoing carry; 10.9% Hormuz-crude-destination per IEA carry; highest-vulnerability-tier (risk score 6.4) per Zero Carbon carry	(no fresh action)	🟢 CARRY
South Korea	208 days carry; 12.0% Hormuz-crude-destination per IEA carry; vulnerability-tier (risk score 5.3) per Zero Carbon carry	(no fresh action)	🟢 CARRY
Philippines	EO 110 emergency stands + PAL cliff-arrived carry	🔴 CLIFF-CARRY	🔴 CARRY
Turkey	K-C-formal-rejection carry	🟢 INTERIM-PROTOCOL RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING per Turkish Minute/Türkiye Today carry — 1-year post-expiry extension prepared; 200K+ bpd through Ceyhan preservation	🟢 PROTOCOL-CARRY
Pakistan	Mediator-institutionalized carry	(no fresh action)	🔴 CARRY
Lebanon	Institutional-committee-formalized carry + 🟢🟢 8-DAY POST-KINETIC THRESHOLD CROSSED JUL 5	Berri + Hezbollah-Qassem rejection carries; 9-day threshold Mon-morning	🟢🟢 8-DAY-CROSSED

10. Policy Actions

Date	Actor	Action	Δ
Jul 5	🔴🔴 US (Trump + White House)	Trump: "It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it" per CNBC + Gulf News; White House Anna Kelly: "Iran cannot toll the Strait, which is an international waterway" per NBC	🔴🔴 NEW DOCTRINE-EXPLICIT
Jul 5	🔴🔴 Iran (Deputy FM Gharibabadi)	"Tehran will move forward alone if Muscat refuses to cooperate" per NBC — Iran-unilateral-toll-tier explicitizes; joint talks set for next week	🔴🔴 NEW UNILATERAL-THREAT
Jul 5	🔴🔴 Iran (FM Araghchi)	"Strait will not return to its prewar status" per NBC — status-quo-restoration explicitly rejected	🔴🔴 NEW REJECTION-EXPLICIT
Jul 5	🔴 Saudi Arabia (FM Faisal bin Farhan)	Publicly rejects Iran-Oman fee-plan; Strait "must return to the status quo before the war" per NBC	🔴 NEW SAUDI-REJECTION
Jul 4	🟢/⚠️ Bloomberg	8 ships U-turned Fri-Sat attempting Omani-coast exit; 1 crude + 2 products + 1 bulk switched to Iran-directed route northward	🟢/⚠️ NEW U-TURN
Jul 5	🔴🔴 Iran (Regime)	Khamenei funeral Day 2 — body paraded through Tehran; Qom Mon → Mashhad burial Jul 9; Mojtaba did NOT lead prayers Day-2; mourners chant for revenge per CNN/Japan Times/CBS	🔴🔴 NEW DAY-2-MOJTABA-STILL-ABSENT
Jul 5	🟢 US-Qatar (Al Jazeera)	Doha Round-2 "as soon as possible after conclusion of funeral processions" reconfirmed; post-Jul-9 Mashhad-burial firm; no specific date set	🟢 NEW ROUND-2-RECONFIRMED
Jul 2	⚠️🔴/🟢 World Oil	India strategic reserves 25 days; SPR expansion + diversification (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil) announced	⚠️🔴/🟢 NEW THIRD-LENS
Jul 4 (Fri)	🟢 Iraq FM	Interim protocol "expected to be signed" following Ankara talks — 1-year post-Jul-27-expiry extension prepared per Turkish Minute + Türkiye Today	🟢 CARRY-EXTENDS
Jul 3	🟢 Bloomberg/TE	Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot confirmed	🟢 NEW CONFIRMED
Jul 5	🟢 US Energy Dept (Wright)	NO SPR second-round announcement — decision-window silent	🟢 NEW SILENT
Jul 4-5	🟢 Lebanon-Israel	8-day post-kinetic threshold crossed Jul 5; 9-day approaches Mon-morning	🟢 NEW 8-DAY-CROSSED
Jul 4-5	🟢 UKMTO	No fresh incident weekend	🟢 NEW CLEAN
Priors	(multiple)	All C200-and-prior policy actions CARRY unchanged	CARRY

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend	Signal	C201 Δ
Conflict day count	128 (War Day 128)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Iran civilian dead (cumulative)	3,468-6,000+	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Iran displaced (cumulative)	~3.2M IDPs	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
US KIA/wounded (cumulative)	15 / 543	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Strait transits/day	🟢/⚠️ 39 Jul-3 hormuzstraitmonitor carry (17-in + 22-out) ≈ 46% pre-war; Jul-4 straits.live 27 carry; 7DMA crude flow near-zero carry; BLOOMBERG JUL-4: 8-SHIP U-TURN + IRAN-ROUTE-SWITCH NEW	Bifurcates	🟢/⚠️ U-TURN-NEW	🟢/⚠️ 8-U-TURN
Brent crude ($/bbl)	🟢 $72.12 Jul-3 spot per Bloomberg/TE CONFIRMED	Flat	🟢 CONFIRMED	🟢 CONFIRMED
WTI crude ($/bbl)	🟢 ~$69 Fri Jul-3 carry	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
VLCC day rates	🔴 TD3C $423K peak + spot ~$200K/day + Anews-easing-carry	Elevated / easing	🔴/🟢 CARRY	CARRY
War risk premium (%)	🟡 ~1% Persian Gulf + Lloyd's-London-market-available carry	Flat / easing	🟡 CARRY	CARRY
Vessels attacked (cumulative)	46+ (IMO cumulative baseline)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Seafarers killed/missing (cumulative)	14 fatalities (IMO cumulative)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
IEA release (barrels committed)	400M program continues	Flat	🟡 CARRY	CARRY
US SPR release (barrels)	🔴 172M first-round FULLY DRAWN per Semafor + SPR 325.7M at 43-year-low carry; 🟢 NO SPR SECOND-ROUND ANNOUNCEMENT C200→C201 — decision-window silent	Silent	🟢 SILENT	🟢 SILENT-NEW
Japan SPR release (barrels)	80M bbl release Mar 16 ongoing	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Iraq oil exports (mb/d)	~230K bpd via K-C + Basra-shift + interim-protocol-preserves 200K+ bpd post-Jul-27 carry	Preservation-tier	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Escort timeline (days to operational)	Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism carry	Flat	🟡 CARRY	CARRY
E-W pipeline utilization (mb/d)	7.0 at full capacity since Mar 11	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Total bypass capacity (mb/d)	7.4-8.6 (at max flex)	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Supply gap (GAP: X mb/d)	🔴 11.4-12.6 mb/d unbridgeable	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
India reserve days	⚠️🔴 THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE: 9-10 (Outlook/PSUWatch SPR-strict) vs 25 (World Oil SPR-broader NEW) vs 69 (Zero Carbon total-supply)	Source-lens triangulates	⚠️🔴 DEEPENS	⚠️🔴 NEW-LENS
China reserve days	108-120 days	Flat	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Ships trapped in Gulf	485-anchored still-substantial-backlog carry; Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-U-turn ≠ trapped but Iran-route-switched	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
Mine threat level	🔴 JMIC SUBSTANTIAL confirmed	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY
IRGC posture	Formal-closure carry + STAND-DOWN supersedes; Ghalibaf-5-preconditions + Iran-Oman-fee-scheme + Gharibabadi-unilateral-threat + Araghchi-strait-not-prewar + Trump-international-waters-veto + Saudi-anti-fee-plan	Quadruple-veto-stalemate	🔴🔴 QUADRUPLE-VETO-NEW	🔴🔴 NEW
P&I insurance status	ALL 12 IG clubs withdrawn non-poolable war risks; Day 88 of absence; Lloyd's-London-market-war-insurance-available-clarification carry	Absent	🔴 CARRY-DAY-88	CARRY
Qatar LNG status	8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan; Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending	Recovery-tier	🟢 CARRY	CARRY
Dual chokepoint status	Hormuz + Red Sea simultaneously disrupted carry; Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 130-134h+ empirical-unconfirmed locks harder	Bifurcating	🔴/⚠️ 130-134H+	⚠️ 130-134H+
Ceasefire status	HOLDS-AT-DOHA-ROUND-1 + ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + KINETIC-CLEAN-14H + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED ↔ QUADRUPLE-VETO-HARDENS	Bifurcates hard	🟡🔴 BIFURCATES-DEEP	🔴🔴 SUBSTANCE-HARDENS
Diplomatic channels	Doha Round-1 concludes; Round-2 post-funeral firm; Iran-US-Lebanon-committee; Pakistan+Qatar mediators; Vance-deconfliction-cell; Iran-MFA denies US-parallel-track	Multi-channel active with quadruple-veto	🔴🔴 HARDENS	🔴🔴 NEW
SE Asia crisis status	Philippines cliff-arrived + PAL EO 110 carry	Flat	🔴 CARRY	CARRY

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

🔴🔴 Khamenei funeral Day 2 underway Jul 5 with Mojtaba still absent + did not lead prayers — CNN Jul-5-live/Japan Times/CBS/EurasiaReview confirm mourners chanting for revenge; body paraded through Tehran; going to Qom Mon then Mashhad Jul 9; succession-ritual gap LOCKS HARDER through funeral-week; first indication of who will lead Day-3+ prayers unclear.

🔴🔴 Trump "international waters" doctrine explicit — Trump: "It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it" per CNBC + Gulf News; White House Anna Kelly: "Iran cannot toll the Strait, which is an international waterway" per NBC — US-substance-tier ossifies into international-waters-doctrine; hardens above C200-Vance-hardline + C200-Trump-outright-rejection.

🔴🔴 Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi: "Tehran will move forward alone if Muscat refuses to cooperate" per NBC — Iran-unilateral-toll-tier explicitizes post-Trump-veto; Iran-Oman-parallel-fee-scheme collapses toward Iran-unilateral-fee-tier; joint talks set for next week per Gharibabadi.

🔴🔴 Iran FM Araghchi: "Strait will not return to its prewar status" per NBC — status-quo-restoration EXPLICITLY REJECTED by Iran-FM; C199-Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 hardens into public FM-level commitment.

🔴 Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan publicly rejects Iran-Oman fee-plan — insists Strait "must return to the status quo before the war" per NBC — Saudi joins US anti-fee-plan front; four-way structural stalemate crystallizes: Iran-unilateral-or-$40B/yr; Oman-voluntary; US-international-waters; Saudi-status-quo-ante.

🟢/⚠️ Bloomberg Jul-4: 8 ships U-turned Fri-Sat attempting Omani-coast exit; 1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier switched to Iran-directed route northward — Iran corridor-control still enforced despite Jul-3-39-transit-recovery; recovery-tier fragile.

🟢 Doha Round-2 "as soon as possible after conclusion of funeral processions" per Al Jazeera reconfirmed — post-Jul-9 Mashhad-burial firm; no specific date set.

⚠️🔴/🟢 India World Oil Jul-2: 25 DAYS strategic reserves + SPR-expansion + diversification (US/Russia/Guyana/Brazil) — THIRD source-lens datapoint layers on 9-10 vs 69 divergence; India-vulnerability-metric-triangulation now three-way; SPR-expansion-plans signal India-hedging-tier accelerates.

🟢 NO US SPR second-round announcement C200→C201 — Wright/Trump silent through Sun-eve; decision-window still active; ~76M above 150M operational floor.

🟢 NO UKMTO fresh incident Jul 4-5 — clean weekend maritime.

🟢 Lebanon-Israel 8-day post-kinetic threshold CROSSED Jul 5 — 9-day approaches Mon-morning; institutional-committee-formalized holds.

🟢 Bloomberg Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot CONFIRMED per Bloomberg/TE — modest-recovery-tier confirms; Sun-eve/Mon-Asia open PENDING under quadruple-veto-hardening.

⚠️ Iran Parliament vote Jul 3-5: STILL NO CONFIRMED OUTCOME through Sun-eve — deferral-through-funeral extends; strategic-ambiguity preserved.

⚠️🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel claims 130-134H+ empirically UNCONFIRMED — 7-day empirical-null-window Mon-eve; claim-tier locks harder toward-null.

⚠️🔴 Axios Jul-4/5 clash-window COLLAPSES TO NULL — Sun-evening 100% no materialization; window-tier fully closes.

(b) Structural Locks Status

Lock 1 (Price): 🟢 LOOSENING (modest, confirmed) — Brent $72.12 Jul-3 spot per Bloomberg/TE confirms modest recovery-tier; Sun-eve/Mon-Asia open PENDING under quadruple-veto-hardening; war-premium at ~$2/bbl above pre-war.
Lock 2 (Supply): 🟡 HOLDING with bifurcation-deepens — Jul 3 transits 39 vessels ~46% pre-war carry; Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn + 4 Iran-route-switch = Iran corridor-control still enforced; 7DMA crude flow "close to zero" carry; structural GAP 11.4-12.6 mb/d unchanged; Iraq-K-C interim-protocol reconfirmed-advancing.
Lock 3 (Insurance): 🟡 HOLDING — Day 88 P&I absence extends; Lloyd's-London market-war-insurance-available carry; Lloyd's/Chubb consortium Day 18 operational; converging parallel-substance for potential re-assessment but quadruple-veto + Mojtaba-succession-gap delay re-entry through weekend and into Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-firm-date-setting.
Lock 4 (Labor): 🟡 HOLDING with easing-signals complicated — Anews-easing-shipping-costs carry + Jul-3-39-transits + Ghalibaf-40M+-empirical + Brent-$72.12-confirmed carry easing-signals; Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-ship-U-turn complicates crew-tier-easing (Iran corridor-control still enforced); IMO evacuation-paused 252-258H+ (5-day-crossed-by-132-138h) remains open concern.
Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARD — Trump-international-waters-doctrine explicit + Anna Kelly quotes + Gharibabadi-unilateral-toll-threat + Araghchi-strait-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection = quadruple-veto-hardens; Parliament-vote-deferred-through-funeral extends; Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 hardens into public FM-commitment; Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor holds (no further decline).
Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 HOLDING with tightening at edges — IAEA-Bushehr+Tehran-only per Ghalibaf carry; IAEA-June-2026-report carry; nuclear/sanctions/regional-security NOT-in-technical-sessions carry.
Lock 7 (Geographic): 🟢 LOOSENING (deepens) — Lebanon-Israel 8-day post-kinetic threshold CROSSED Jul 5 (9-day approaches Mon-morning); Iran-Israel PAUSE 36th day; Axios Jul-4/5 clash-window collapses to NULL; Iran-US kinetic 14h+ null; NO-UKMTO-weekend.
Lock 8 (Capability): 🟡 HOLDING — Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism carry; no fresh minesweeping deployment surfaced C200→C201; US-still-no-dedicated-minesweepers-in-theater carry.
Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint): 🟡 HOLDING with Houthi-tier locking harder toward empirical-null — Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 130-134h+ UNCONFIRMED locks harder (7-day threshold Mon-eve); MARAD 2026-006 through Sep-22 carry; MSC-Manzanillo IDF-denied carry.
Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARDER — Mojtaba absent Day-2 + did-not-lead-prayers per CNN Jul-5/Japan Times; body paraded Tehran → Qom Mon → Mashhad Jul 9; hiding-since-war-began per JPost; wounded Feb-28 strike; succession-ritual-gap deepens through funeral-week; first indication of Day-3 prayer-leader unclear; Iran-Deputy-FM speaking without supreme-leader-clarity.
Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🟡 HOLDING — Ras Laffan 8+ empty LNG carriers massing + Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry; South Pars carry; no new infrastructure strike C200→C201.

(c) Critical Watch (next 12-96h)

Sun-eve/Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under quadruple-veto-hardening
Any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3 Qom Mon-morning
Iraq-Turkey interim-protocol formal-signing timing (K-C Day 22 out)
Any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence post-funeral-Day-2
India-25-vs-9-10-vs-69-days SPR-lens resolution/clarification
US SPR second-round-drawdown decision (silent through Sun-eve)
UKMTO/MARAD incident-signal Mon (weekend clean)
Al Hamla → China arrival empirical confirmation (still-pending 3-day)
Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning
Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor-vs-continued-decline weekly-open
Any Trump Truth Social response to Iran-Gharibabadi-unilateral-threat
Ghalibaf statement-if-any at funeral Day-3
Katz/Israel response to Iran-mobilization-rhetoric (mourners chant for revenge)
Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claims 168h/7-day threshold (Mon-eve) — full empirical-null-lock
Mashhad burial Jul 9 (4 days out) security-posture and Mojtaba appearance-window
Doha Round-2 date-setting post-Mashhad-burial firm-vs-slip
Iraq-Turkey formal interim-protocol signing before Jul 27 K-C expiry (22 days)
Any Iran unilateral-toll-declaration post-Trump-international-waters-doctrine
30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 pressure — full-lift terminus Jul 18 (13 days out)
Any Saudi follow-through on FM-Faisal-anti-fee-plan-front

(d) Net Assessment

C201 documents the ~14h consolidation of C200's bifurcated phase into an explicit four-way structural stalemate. The delta from C200 (Sun-mid-day) to C201 (Sun-evening) is 14 hours, yet the substance-tier has hardened along four axes simultaneously through explicit official statements: Trump's "international waters" doctrine (US zero-tolls veto ossifies), Iran-Deputy-FM Gharibabadi's unilateral-toll-threat ("Tehran will move forward alone if Muscat refuses"), Iran-FM Araghchi's explicit rejection of prewar-status-restoration, and Saudi-FM Faisal's public rejection of the fee-plan. Simultaneously, the kinetic-tier extends its stand-down (14h+ clean, Iran-Israel PAUSE Day-36, Lebanon 8-day-CROSSED, UKMTO-weekend-clean, Axios-clash-window fully NULL); oil-price holds at $72.12 (Bloomberg confirms Jul-3 spot); Doha Round-2 firms post-funeral per Al Jazeera reconfirmed. Bloomberg Jul-4 confirms 8 ships U-turned Fri-Sat with 4 switching to Iran-directed route — Iran corridor-control still enforced despite Jul-3-39-transit-recovery. Mojtaba absent Day-2 and did not lead prayers per CNN/Japan Times — succession-ritual-gap deepens.

Structural-locks pattern (C201): 2 loosening (Price + Geographic), 6 holding (Supply-with-bifurcation-deepens, Insurance, Nuclear, Capability, Dual-Chokepoint, Energy-Infrastructure, Labor-with-easing-complicated), 3 tightening (Duration TIGHTENS-HARD, Leadership TIGHTENS-HARDER, Nuclear-holding-toward-tightening). Compared to C200 (2 loosening, 6 holding, 3 tightening), aggregate lock-count is flat but internal composition shifts: Duration tightens HARD (from tightening to quadruple-veto-hardens); Leadership tightens HARDER (Mojtaba Day-2 absence + did-not-lead-prayers deepens Day-1-invisibility); Geographic strengthens toward-loosening (Lebanon 8-day-crossed + UKMTO-clean + Axios-null). Absence of P&I re-entry through Day 88 despite converging containment-signals + Lloyd's-London-clarification + Chubb-Day-18 suggests underwriter-tier deeper into wait-mode pending Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-firm-date + resolution of quadruple-veto-stalemate.

Trajectory absent intervention: Oil-market accepts containment as base case while political-succession-tier destabilizes visibly (Mojtaba Day-2 absent) AND toll-mechanism-tier ossifies into four-way structural stalemate. The 30-day-blockade-lift-Jul-18-terminus (13 days out) is now the next major inflection — full-lift will meet: (1) Araghchi's explicit "strait will not return to prewar status" commitment; (2) Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 declared regime; (3) Trump-international-waters-doctrine; (4) Gharibabadi-unilateral-toll-threat if Muscat refuses; (5) Saudi-FM anti-fee-plan-rejection — forcing US to either accept Iran-toll-fait-accompli or reintroduce blockade after full-lift. Key uncertainties: (a) whether Mojtaba appears at Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 or continues invisible succession-through-written-statements — legitimacy-tier fate; (b) whether Iran-Parliament ratifies-defers-or-defeats MOU before window-closes (leverage-preservation-vs-hardening) — deferral-through-funeral tier extends; (c) whether Trump-veto triggers Iran-post-Aug-18 unilateral-toll-declaration (Gharibabadi has ALREADY signaled this) — structural-conflict-restart risk; (d) whether Lloyd's-London market makes first P&I re-entry decision post-Mashhad-burial (Day 92-95 window); (e) whether US SPR second-round-drawdown decision reveals administration's assessment of durability-of-containment; (f) whether transit-count-improvement translates to crude-flow-recovery within 96h or 7DMA-near-zero persists as structural-signal; (g) whether Bloomberg-8-U-turn cadence continues into next week or was a one-time signal.

Source-lens reconciliation notes: (1) India-reserves-3-way-split — 9-10 days (Outlook/PSUWatch SPR-strict) vs 25 days (World Oil Jul-2 SPR-broader) vs 69 days (Zero Carbon total-supply-days-incl-private-stocks) — flagged not silently resolved; three metrics true, describing three tiers. (2) Araghchi funeral-attendance framing: "70+ countries" vs Al Jazeera "100+" — carry as parallel-source-lens. (3) Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn vs Jul-3 39-transits per hormuzstraitmonitor — both true; U-turn narrative reveals Iran corridor-control-enforcement mechanism WITHIN transit-count-recovery. (4) Ghalibaf carry: Iran-Parliament-Speaker + delegation at Khamenei-body Fri + no Hormuz-statement C200→C201.

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