# Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-07-05 · Cycle 3 (C202) **War Day**: 128 | **Ceasefire Day**: 18 | **60-day-clock**: Day 18 of 60 (Jun 18 → Aug 18) | **30-day-blockade-lift-clock**: Day 18 of 30 (Jun 18 → Jul 18) | **Cycle**: C202 (c3 of 2026-07-05, Sun-late-evening → Mon-Asia-open transition; ~4-8h delta from C201 evening). **Grok bridge**: NO — Apple Notes MCP unreachable across C200/C201/C202. Reduced-web-sweep against C201 baseline; delta window narrow (~4-8h into Mon Jul-6 pre-dawn UTC / Mon-Asia-open). **Baseline**: C201 / 2026-07-05 Sun-evening-UTC (KHAMENEI-FUNERAL-DAY-2-UNDERWAY-MOJTABA-STILL-ABSENT + TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL-TOLL + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTS-FEE-PLAN + BLOOMBERG-JUL-4-8-SHIP-U-TURN + DOHA-ROUND-2-POST-JUL-9-FIRM + INDIA-25-DAYS-THIRD-LENS + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-INCIDENT-WEEKEND + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRED + AXIOS-JUL-4/5-NULL). > **PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-07-05 C202, Sun-late-eve/Mon-Asia-open transition; ~4-8h delta from C201):** C202 = 🔴🔴 **KHAMENEI FUNERAL DAY 3 (JUL 6 MON) 8AM-PRAYER SCHEDULED PER IRGC-TEHRAN-COMMANDER HASSANZADEH — PRAYER LEADER NOT YET ANNOUNCED** per CBS/PBS confirms; either religious-figure or family-member — succession-legitimacy-tier faces first-visible-test-at-dawn + 🔴🔴 **THREE KHAMENEI SONS APPEAR AT MOURNING JUL 5 IN TEHRAN — BUT MOJTABA STILL ABSENT** per CNN Jul-5-live — intra-family-visibility bifurcation confirms: three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible-33rd-week; sons appeared publicly Day-2, Mojtaba did not — **succession-ritual-gap DEEPENS beyond legitimacy-question into visible-family-visibility-asymmetry** + 🔴 **PERFORMER CALLED FOR TRUMP'S DEATH AT KHAMENEI FUNERAL** per WaPo Jul-5 — hostile-rhetoric-tier-from-official-Iran-stage NEW; risk-signal of funeral-emotional-momentum leaking into anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure + 🟢 **TRUMP MOUNT RUSHMORE Jul-4-5: "IRAN IS DYING TO SETTLE... WE GAVE THEM A WEEK OFF FOR A FUNERAL, BECAUSE WE'RE NICE"** per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN — **week-off framing = restraint-signal + diplomacy-anchor**; harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral-firm from C201; Trump-restraint-tier positive-tone-preserved despite anti-Trump-rhetoric from Iran-stage + 🟢 **WRIGHT CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER DRAWDOWN + 39.5M BBL REMAINING IN PROGRAM + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION FROM BIG HILL/BRYAN MOUND** per thewellnews.com — SPR silent-tier confirms mechanically-continuing but no fresh second-round; decision-window-restraint-tier extends through weekend + 🟢 **KRG HOSTANI NAMES 200K+ BPD PRESERVATION VIA INTERIM PROTOCOL** per Turkish Minute — Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands crystallizes; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carries + 🟢 **HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR EXPLICIT JUL-3: 17-IN TANKER-GAS-HEAVY (12 OF 17) + 22-OUT LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW** per Wikipedia+argus — **corridor-bifurcation "no-crude-departed" EXPLICIT** — deepens 7DMA-crude-flow-near-zero structural signal + 🟢 **UAE 3.9 MB/D + SAUDI RAMP + TOTAL DAILY FLOW ABOVE 10 MB/D PER TE** — bypass+non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms + ⚠️ **HARDLINE LEGISLATORS "POSTPONED PROTEST"** per WSJ — Parliament-deferral dynamics extend "after Khamenei burial next month" (Jul 9 → post-Mashhad) — deferral-through-funeral tier structurally-locked + 🟢 **NO UKMTO/MARAD FRESH INCIDENT JUL 5-6** carry-extends clean-weekend into Mon-Asia-transit + 🔴 **HOUTHI-JUL-1 4-CLAIMS 144-152H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED — 7-DAY THRESHOLD MON-EVE (~20H OUT)** locks harder toward empirical-null-lock. **Eight material C201→C202 datapoints refine ~4-8h narrow-cycle**: **(1) 🔴🔴 FUNERAL-DAY-3 8AM-PRAYER-SCHEDULED + PRAYER-LEADER-STILL-UNKNOWN.** **(2) 🔴🔴 THREE-SONS-APPEAR + MOJTABA-STILL-INVISIBLE** — visible-asymmetry-tier NEW. **(3) 🔴 PERFORMER-CALLS-FOR-TRUMP-DEATH from official-stage.** **(4) 🟢 TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-FRAMING** = restraint-anchor. **(5) 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW"** = SPR-silent confirms mechanically continuing. **(6) 🟢 KRG-HOSTANI-200K+ BPD** protocol confirmation. **(7) 🟢 CORRIDOR "NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-THIS-WINDOW"** explicit. **(8) 🟢 UAE-3.9-MB/D + SAUDI-RAMP + 10-MB/D-TOTAL-FLOW** — non-Iran-Gulf recovery. **Net: C202 IS THE ~4-8H NARROW-WINDOW HANDOFF-TO-MON-ASIA-OPEN. Kinetic-tier extends clean into Day-3-funeral-approach; substance-tier holds C201-quadruple-veto (Trump-international-waters + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-anti-fee) unchanged; succession-tier DEEPENS with visible-three-sons-vs-invisible-Mojtaba asymmetry; hostile-rhetoric-tier NEW from official-Iran-stage (performer-Trump-death); Trump-restraint-tier POSITIVE with week-off-framing; SPR-decision-window-silent-tier CONFIRMS via Wright-CNBC "no plan right now"; corridor "no-crude-departed" bifurcation EXPLICIT via wiki+argus. Doha-Round-2-post-funeral-firm carries. Iraq-Turkey pipeline-soft-lands carries with 200K+ bpd confirmed. C201-TRIPLE-VECTOR-WINDOW-STATUS: Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 approaches (Day-3 tomorrow); Parliament-vote-deferral EXTENDS "after burial next month" per WSJ; SPR-second-round decision-window-restraint-tier CONFIRMS Wright silent; none resolved.** Critical 0-12h to Mon-Asia-open: (a) Mon-8am Tehran prayer-leader identity (religious-figure vs family-member vs none); (b) any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3 dawn; (c) Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under Trump-week-off-framing vs Iran-hostile-rhetoric-tier; (d) Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning; (e) any Trump Truth-Social response to performer-death-call; (f) any Katz/Israel response to Iran-anti-Trump-rhetoric or three-sons-appearance; (g) Ghalibaf statement-at-Day-3 or Araghchi funeral-remarks; (h) Iraq-Turkey formal-signing pre-Jul-27 (22 days out); (i) Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor into weekly-open; (j) UKMTO/MARAD Mon incident-emergence; (k) Al Hamla → China arrival empirical-confirmation still-pending 4-day; (l) any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence post-Day-3-prayers. --- ## ⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C201 → C202 DELTAS) - 🔴🔴 **FUNERAL DAY 3 MON JUL 6: 8AM TEHRAN PRAYER SCHEDULED PER HASSANZADEH (IRGC-TEHRAN-COMMANDER) — PRAYER LEADER STILL NOT ANNOUNCED** per CBS/PBS carry — either religious-figure or family-member; **first-visible-test-of-succession-legitimacy at Mon-dawn**. - 🔴🔴 **THREE OF KHAMENEI'S SONS APPEAR AT MOURNING JUL 5 — BUT NOT MOJTABA** per CNN Jul-5-live — **intra-family visible-asymmetry NEW**: three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-still-invisible; succession-ritual-gap deepens beyond simple absence into visible-family-visibility-asymmetry-tier. - 🔴 **PERFORMER CALLED FOR TRUMP'S DEATH AT KHAMENEI FUNERAL JUL 4-5** per WaPo — **hostile-rhetoric-tier from official-Iran-stage NEW**; funeral-emotional-momentum risk-signal for anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure post-Jul-9. - 🟢 **TRUMP MOUNT RUSHMORE: "IRAN IS DYING TO SETTLE... WE GAVE THEM A WEEK OFF FOR A FUNERAL, BECAUSE WE'RE NICE"** per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN — **week-off framing = restraint-signal + diplomacy-anchor**; Trump-restraint-tier positive-tone-preserved. - 🟢 **WRIGHT CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER DRAWDOWN** per thewellnews carry — **SPR silent-tier CONFIRMS**; 39.5M bbl remaining in original program; 40M-bbl new solicitation from Big Hill/Bryan Mound = mechanical-continuation, NOT fresh second-round drawdown. - 🟢 **KRG HOSTANI: 200K+ BPD PRESERVATION VIA INTERIM PROTOCOL** per Turkish Minute — **Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands crystallizes**; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry; K-C formal-expiry Day 22 out. - 🟢 **HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR EXPLICIT JUL-3: TANKER-GAS-HEAVY INBOUND (12 OF 17) + LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY OUTBOUND / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW** per Wikipedia+argus — **corridor bifurcation "no-crude-departed" EXPLICIT** — deepens 7DMA-crude-near-zero structural signal from C201. - 🟢 **UAE 3.9 MB/D + SAUDI-RAMP + TOTAL DAILY FLOW ABOVE 10 MB/D THROUGH HORMUZ** per TE — non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms; bypass+non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier maintains oil-market containment. - ⚠️ **HARDLINE LEGISLATORS "POSTPONED PROTEST" PLANS UNTIL AFTER KHAMENEI BURIAL NEXT MONTH** per WSJ — Parliament-vote-deferral EXTENDS structurally-locked; "next month" = post-Jul-9 → possibly Aug window. - 🟢 **NO UKMTO/MARAD FRESH INCIDENT JUL 5-6** — clean-weekend extends into Mon-Asia-transit. - 🔴 **HOUTHI JUL-1 4-CLAIMS 144-152H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED** — 7-day threshold Mon-eve (~20h out); locks harder toward empirical-null-lock. --- ## 1. Conflict Status **War Day 128 / Ceasefire Day 18 / 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60 / 30-day-blockade-lift-clock Day 18 of 30. C201 → C202 (~4-8h narrow): FUNERAL-DAY-3-MON-8AM-PRAYER-LEADER-STILL-UNKNOWN + THREE-SONS-APPEAR-MOJTABA-INVISIBLE + PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT + WRIGHT-SPR-SILENT-CONFIRMS + KRG-200K-BPD-CONFIRMED + NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-EXPLICIT + UAE-3.9-SAUDI-RAMP + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL-EXTENDS-NEXT-MONTH + NO-UKMTO-JUL-5-6 + HOUTHI-144-152H+.** **Cross-leg status (C202):** - **🟡 Iran-Israel direct-leg**: PAUSE HOLDS — 36th day window; no fresh action 4-8h+ composite - **🟢 Iran-US kinetic-leg STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-4-8H-DEEPER**: Vance "talks going well" carry; Doha Round-1 concludes carry; deconfliction-cell IRGC+CENTCOM carry; ⚠️ IRGC-Mohebi-hotline-denial carry; **NO US third-round + NO IRGC third-round 4-8h+ fresh**; 🟢 **TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-FRAMING** NEW carry; ⚠️🔴 Axios Jul-4/5 collapses-to-null (C201) carry; 🔴🔴 Trump-international-waters-doctrine (C201) carry - **⏳ Iran-Gulf-state kinetic-leg HOLDS-TRIPLE-FRONT POST-STAND-DOWN**: casualty carry; **NO fresh Gulf-state strike C201→C202 (4-8h)** - **🔴 Iran-Commercial-tier kinetic-leg HOLDS**: KIKU+DELONIX+8-SHIP-U-TURN carries; **NO fresh named-commercial-Hormuz-hit C201→C202** - **🟢/⚠️🔴 Iran-US blockade-leg**: 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60; **30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 = full-lift Jul 18 (13 days)** carries; stand-down "vessels move freely" carry; GL X Aug-21 carry; TankerTrackers 3.8M carry; C200 Jul-3-39-transits carry; 🟢 **HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR EXPLICIT: TANKER-GAS-HEAVY INBOUND (12/17) + LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY OUTBOUND / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW NEW**; 🟢 UAE-3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-flow NEW; 🔴 US SPR 325.7M carry; 🟢 **WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" CONFIRMS SPR-SILENT-TIER** NEW - **🟡/🔴🔴 Iran-US rhetorical-leg**: 🟢 Doha Round-1/Round-2-post-funeral-firm carries; 🟢 Vance/Trump-week-off-restraint carries; 🔴🔴 Trump-international-waters + Anna-Kelly carries; 🔴🔴 Gharibabadi-unilateral carries; 🔴🔴 Araghchi-strait-not-prewar carries; 🔴 Saudi-FM-Faisal-rejection carries; 🔴 **PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH FROM FUNERAL-STAGE NEW**; 🟢 **TRUMP "IRAN DYING TO SETTLE — WEEK OFF" NEW-RESTRAINT-TIER** - **🔴 Iran intra-elite + intra-state**: All C201 carries; ⚠️🔴 **MOJTABA STILL INVISIBLE + THREE OTHER KHAMENEI SONS APPEARED AT MOURNING JUL 5 per CNN — visible-family-asymmetry NEW**; **Prayer-leader Day-3 Mon-8am STILL NOT ANNOUNCED per Hassanzadeh** — first-visible-legitimacy-test-at-dawn; ⚠️ **PARLIAMENT-VOTE STILL DEFERRED — "hardline legislators postponed protest until after Khamenei burial next month" per WSJ** — deferral structurally locked - **🟢🟢 Israel-MOU + Lebanon-leg**: Iran-US-Lebanon-committee-formalized carry; **8-day post-kinetic threshold CROSSED Jul 5 carry**; 9-day threshold Mon-morning approach; Berri + Hezbollah-Qassem rejection carries - **🟢/⚠️ Qatar (Ras Laffan)**: 🟢 Qatar PM al-Thani "positive progress" carry; 🟢 Iran-experts-delegation Doha Round-1 completed; 🟢 **Al Hamla → China arrival verification STILL-PENDING** C201→C202 (4-day); ⚠️ Qatar remains silent; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry - **🔴 Pakistan (mediator-second-tier)**: Pakistan-mediator-institutionalizes-carry - **🔴🔴 Saudi**: FM Faisal-rejects-fee-plan carry; E-W pipeline full-capacity carry; **🟢 SAUDI-RAMP-TO-ASIA-VIA-HORMUZ per TE NEW** — bypass+non-Iran-Gulf recovery - **🔴 Bahrain / 🔴 Kuwait CONFLICT-ZONE-CARRIES**: casualty figures carry; NO fresh strikes - **⚠️🔴 Yemen/Red Sea-leg CLAIM-TIER 144-152H+ EMPIRICAL-UNCONFIRMED-LOCKS-HARDER**: HOUTHI-DELONIX C186 carry; ⚠️🔴 **Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 144-152h+ empirical-tier unconfirmed (Mon-eve = 168h/7-day, ~20h out)**; MARAD 2026-006 through Sep-22 carry - **🟢/⚠️/🔴🔴 Mediation POST-C201-STRUCTURAL-QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRY / TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-NEW / KINETIC-CLEAN-4-8H-DEEPER** **Key Jul 5 late-eve / Jul 6 pre-dawn C202 events (~4-8h fresh delta from C201):** - 🔴🔴 Funeral Day 3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled — prayer leader STILL NOT ANNOUNCED - 🔴🔴 Three Khamenei sons appear at mourning — Mojtaba still invisible - 🔴 Performer calls for Trump's death at funeral stage - 🟢 Trump Mount Rushmore "week off... because we're nice" — restraint-anchor - 🟢 Wright CNBC "no plan right now" to alter SPR drawdown — silent-tier confirms - 🟢 KRG Hostani names 200K+ bpd via interim protocol - 🟢 Hormuzstraitmonitor "no crude departed" this-window explicit - 🟢 UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp + 10-mb/d total Hormuz flow - ⚠️ Hardline legislators "postponed protest until after burial next month" - 🟢 No UKMTO fresh incident Jul 5-6 **Cumulative casualties (C202 CARRY UNCHANGED from C201):** - Iran civilians killed: Foundation of Martyrs 3,468 / HRANA 3,636 / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates - Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs; US KIA/wounded: 15 / 543; Israel: 40 IDF KIA + 28-29 civilians = 69 + 9,161 injured - Iraq: 119+; UAE: 13; Kuwait: 10 + 4 KIA + 7 civilians + 78 + 104 injured; Bahrain: 3 + 51 injured; Saudi: 3 + 29 injured - Qatar (Ras Laffan): 13 KIA + 66 + 54 injured + 18 missing + 1 Qatar citizen - Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities - Lebanon: 4,057+ killed + 12,121 wounded (**8-day-post-kinetic-crossed Jul 5**; 9-day approaches Mon-morning) - Cross-source total: 7,144-9,676+ killed; ~46,965 injured **Ceasefire likelihood assessment (C202)**: **HOLDS-AT-DOHA-ROUND-1 + ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + KINETIC-CLEAN-4-8H-DEEPER + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-NEW + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO-WEEKEND-INTO-MON ↔ QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRIES + HOSTILE-RHETORIC-FROM-FUNERAL-STAGE-NEW + MOJTABA-VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY-DEEPENS**. C202 refines C201 ~4-8h with kinetic-tier extending clean and structural-substance-tier holding C201 quadruple-veto unchanged. **FOR (containment-vectors — EXTEND)**: (a) Kinetic clean 4-8h+ composite; (b) Trump-week-off-framing = restraint-anchor; (c) Wright-SPR-silent confirms decision-restraint; (d) KRG-200K-bpd + Saudi-ramp + UAE-3.9 = bypass-tier operational; (e) No UKMTO Jul 5-6; (f) Doha Round-2 post-funeral-firm carries. **AGAINST (open vectors — HARDEN)**: (a) **THREE-SONS-VISIBLE + MOJTABA-INVISIBLE** = succession-legitimacy-tier deepens beyond simple-absence into family-visibility-asymmetry; (b) **Prayer-leader Mon-8am still not announced** = first-visible-test-of-legitimacy at dawn; (c) **Performer-calls-Trump-death from official-stage** = hostile-rhetoric-tier NEW from Iran-official-venue; (d) Parliament-deferral EXTENDS "next month" per WSJ = structurally-locked toward Aug; (e) Corridor "no-crude-departed-this-window" explicit — recovery-tier bifurcation confirmed; (f) Houthi 144-152h+ empirical-null locks harder (7-day threshold ~20h out); (g) All C201 quadruple-veto carries (Trump-international-waters + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection). **Critical 0-12h**: (a) Mon-8am Tehran prayer-leader identity; (b) any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3-dawn; (c) Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under week-off-vs-hostile-rhetoric bifurcation; (d) Lebanon 9-day threshold Mon-morning; (e) any Trump response to performer-death-call; (f) Katz/Israel response to Iran-mobilization-rhetoric; (g) Ghalibaf/Araghchi funeral-Day-3 remarks; (h) Iraq-Turkey formal-signing timing; (i) Polymarket Dec-31 83% weekly-open; (j) UKMTO/MARAD Mon; (k) Al Hamla → China 4-day empirical-confirmation; (l) any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence Mon-post-Day-3. ## 2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status | Parameter | Current Status | Δ vs C201 | |-----------|---------------|----------| | **Transits/day** | 🟢 **JUL-3: 39 VESSELS (17-IN + 22-OUT) per hormuzstraitmonitor CARRY**; **HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR-EXPLICIT (via wiki): INBOUND TANKER-GAS-HEAVY 12 OF 17 SPLIT BOTH CORRIDORS + OUTBOUND LIGHT-PRODUCTS-ONLY / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW NEW**; 🟢 UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi-ramp + **TOTAL DAILY FLOW ABOVE 10 MB/D THROUGH HORMUZ NEW** per TE; JUL-4 STRAITS.LIVE 27 carry; hormuztracking.com "4 vessels 0.0 knots" real-time; Kpler 30-day-forward 40-target carry; 7-day-moving-average crude-flow "close to zero" carry; Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn carry; IMO evacuation-paused 256-262H+ | 🟢 CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION-EXPLICIT + 10-MB/D-TOTAL-NEW | | **Iran formal closure** | ALL C201 CARRIES: IRAN ARMY FORMAL HORMUZ CLOSURE + Ghalibaf-5-precondition + IRGC-Mohebi-hotline-denial + Iran-Oman-parallel-fee-scheme + Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 + Trump-international-waters-doctrine + Anna-Kelly + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-strait-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection; ⚠️ **PARLIAMENT-VOTE STILL DEFERRED — "hardline legislators postponed protest until after burial next month" per WSJ NEW-EXPLICIT** | ⚠️ DEFERRAL-STRUCTURAL-LOCK-NEXT-MONTH-NEW | | **IRGC Navy kinetic enforcement** | C186 carries; **NO fresh IRGC kinetic action C201→C202 (4-8h+)**; STAND-DOWN extends deeper + Vance-deconfliction-cell-Hormuz carry; Axios Jul-4/5 collapses-to-null carry | 🟢 EXTENDS | | **JMIC threat level** | 🔴 SUBSTANTIAL CONFIRMED carry; JMIC widened southern Oman route carry | 🔴 LOCKED | | **US kinetic enforcement (Hormuz response)** | C186 carry; **NO US third-round in 4-8h+ fresh composite**; MUTUAL STAND-DOWN + Vance "talks going well" + Doha Round-1-concludes + Doha Round-2-post-funeral firm + Trump "very good meetings" carries; ⚠️ Vance "cannot commit — depends on Iran" carry; 🔴🔴 Trump-international-waters-doctrine + Anna-Kelly carry; 🟢 **TRUMP-MOUNT-RUSHMORE "IRAN DYING TO SETTLE — WEEK OFF FOR FUNERAL BECAUSE WE'RE NICE" NEW-RESTRAINT-FRAMING** | 🟢/🔴🔴 EXTENDS-4-8H / TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-NEW | | **Tanker compliance / corridor enforcement** | AZUMASAN+BLUE-STAR-I + KIKU+DELONIX + Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-U-turn carries; **NO new Hormuz vessel hit C201→C202 (4-8h+)**; STAND-DOWN "vessels move freely"; 🟢 Ghalibaf 40M+ barrels at 20% premium + TankerTrackers 3.8M-through-Hormuz-post-blockade + TASS-68M-afloat + Jul-3-39-transits carries; 🟢 **"NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW" EXPLICIT** deepens 7DMA structural signal; 🟢 **RAS-LAFFAN AL HAMLA → CHINA VERIFICATION STILL-PENDING C201→C202 (4-DAY)**; ⚠️🔴 Houthi-Jul-1-144-152H+ empirical-unconfirmed | 🟢 CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION-EXPLICIT / AL-HAMLA-4-DAY-PENDING | | **Iran-Oman joint transit committee + bilateral channel** | ALL C201 carries: Bloomberg + Araghchi-Albusaidi + Ghalibaf-Muscat + Vance-deconfliction-cell + IRGC-Mohebi-denies + Qatar-FM-no-US-Iran-meeting + Iran-MFA-denies + Doha-Round-1-concludes + Round-2-post-funeral-firm + Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 + Pakistan-mediator + Iran-Oman parallel-fee + Trump-veto + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection; ⚠️ **PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL "AFTER BURIAL NEXT MONTH" NEW** | ⚠️ DEFERRAL-EXTENDS-STRUCTURAL-LOCK | | Strait status | ALL C201 carries + **FUNERAL-DAY-3-8AM-PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN** + **THREE-SONS-VISIBLE-MOJTABA-INVISIBLE** + **PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH** + **TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT** + **WRIGHT-SPR-SILENT-CONFIRMS** + **KRG-200K-BPD-CONFIRMED** + **NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-EXPLICIT** + **UAE-3.9 + SAUDI-RAMP + 10-MB/D-TOTAL** + **PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL-NEXT-MONTH** + **NO-UKMTO-MON-EVE** + **HOUTHI-144-152H+** | 🟢/⚠️/🔴🔴 10 MATERIAL DELTAS | | **Iran kinetic activity — Hormuz-leg** | All prior entries carry; **NO new IRGC kinetic C201→C202 (4-8h)** + STAND-DOWN + Vance-deconfliction-cell; Axios-null carry | 🟢 EXTENDS | | **Iran-Israel direct-leg** | PAUSE HOLDS — 36th day window; no fresh action 4-8h+ | 🟢 EXTENDS | | US blockade — political | OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; STAND-DOWN-EXTENDS-4-8H-DEEPER; GL X Aug-21 carry; **30-DAY-BLOCKADE-LIFT DAY 18 OF 30 → JUL 18 (13 DAYS OUT)** carry; ALL C201 carries + 🟢 **TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-FRAMING NEW** ↔ ALL C201 negatives carry | 🟢/🔴🔴 WEEK-OFF-NEW / QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRY | | **US blockade — physical** | OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; 60-day-clock Day 18 of 60; **30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 → JUL 18 (13 DAYS)** carry; ALL C201 recovery + carry carries; 🟢 **"NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED THIS-WINDOW" EXPLICIT NEW**; 🟢 **UAE-3.9 + SAUDI-RAMP + 10-MB/D-TOTAL NEW**; 🟢 **WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" SPR-DECISION-WINDOW-SILENT-CONFIRMS** | 🟢 CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION + WRIGHT-SILENT-CONFIRMS | | India safe passage | ALL C201 carries: DISHA + India-96%-recovery + non-Hormuz-70% + June->5-mb/d + Russia/UAE-dominant + THREE-WAY-DIVERGENCE (9-10 / 25 / 69 days) + SPR-expansion-plans | ⚠️🔴 DEEPENS-CARRY | ## 3. Tanker Attack Log (cumulative since Feb 28) **Running total: 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities (IMO cumulative). C202 DELTA: ⚠️🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claims 144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED by UKMTO/MARAD (LOCKS HARDER — 7-day threshold Mon-eve ~20h out); NO new Hormuz vessel hits C201→C202 (4-8h fresh); Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn carry; container-ship-aground C199 carry.** | Date | Vessel | Flag | Location | Damage | Casualties | Delta | |------|--------|------|----------|--------|------------|-------| | Jul 4 (Bloomberg) | 8 SHIPS TOTAL — U-TURNED Fri-Sat; 4 switched to Iran-directed route (1 crude tanker + 2 products tankers + 1 bulk carrier northward) | Various | Hormuz | Non-kinetic — Iran corridor-control enforcement | None | C201 CARRY | | Jul 2 (report) | Container ship (unnamed) | Unspecified | Strait of Hormuz | AGROUND during "unauthorized transit" per Iranian authorities | (none) | C199 CARRY | | Jul 1 (claim) | M/T Delonix (2nd Houthi claim) | Liberia | Red Sea | Houthis claim — **144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED** | (none) | ⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER | | Jul 1 (claim) | MSC Unific | (MSC-Zurich) | Arabian Sea | Houthis claim — **144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED** | (none) | ⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER | | Jul 1 (claim) | Anvil Point (British sealift) | UK-flag/RFA | Indian Ocean | Houthis claim — **144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED** | (none) | ⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER | | Jul 1 (claim) | Lucky Sailor | (various) | Mediterranean Sea | Houthis claim — **144-152H+ UNCONFIRMED** | (none) | ⚠️🔴 LOCKS-HARDER | | Jul 1 (claim/denied) | MSC Manzanillo (Portugal-flag) | Portugal | Haifa (docked) | Houthis + Islamic Resistance in Iraq claim — **IDF-DENIED** | (none) | CARRY | | Jun 28 ~03:00 local | M/T Delonix (1st) | Liberia | NW Al Hudaydah (Red Sea) | None — vessel escaped per UKMTO | None | CARRY | | Jun 27 ~08:00 UTC | VLCC Kiku | Panama | Gulf (Al Shaheen → Singapore via Fujairah) | Bridge starboard wing damage; 2M bbl cargo intact | None | CARRY | | Jun 26 (Thu) | M/V Ever Lovely | Singapore | Hormuz approaches (Gulf of Oman) | Projectile hit confirmed | None | CARRY | | Jun 8-9 | M/V Tavvishi + M/V Norderney | Various | Gulf of Aden | Houthi missile strikes | (carry) | CARRY | | Various (Mar-Jun) | Azumasan, Blue Star I, 3 unnamed | Various | Hormuz | NAMED U-TURN — no impacts | None | CARRY | | (priors) | Multiple incidents | Various | Hormuz / Red Sea / Iraq terminals | Mixed | 14 cumulative fatalities | CARRY | **Neutral-state-infrastructure attacks (flagged separately)**: Ras Laffan (Qatar Mar 18), Port Salman/Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain), Ali Al Salem (Kuwait), SAUDI — all CARRY. **IRGC friendly-fire incidents**: No new C201→C202. ## 4. Oil Prices | Benchmark | Current | Prior Cycle (C201) | Pre-war (Feb 27) | Peak (Mar 8) | Δ | |-----------|---------|-------------------|------------------|--------------|---| | **Brent spot** | 🟢 **$72.12 JUL-3 SPOT CARRY** per Bloomberg/TE; Mon-Asia-open PENDING under Trump-week-off-restraint + Iran-hostile-rhetoric-bifurcation | $72.12 Jul-3 CONFIRMED | ~$70 | $119-126 | 🟢 CARRY-PENDING-OPEN | | **Brent futures (front month)** | 🟢 ~$72 per TE carry | $72 estimate | ~$70 | $119-126 | 🟢 CARRY | | **WTI** | 🟢 **~$68.11 open Jul-2 + ~$69 Jul-3 macrotrends carry** | ~$69 | ~$66 (pre-war ~$66-70) | ~$115 | 🟢 CARRY | | **Oman/Dubai** | Not surfaced in 4-8h window | (carry) | — | — | CARRY | | **VLCC day rates** | 🔴 TD3C $423K peak + spot ~$200K/day + Anews-easing-carry | Same | ~$50K/d | ~$200K+ | 🔴/🟢 CARRY | | **Brent Q2 quarterly** | 🟢 -15% Q2 CONFIRMED carry | -15% | — | — | 🟢 CARRY | | **WTI Q2 quarterly** | 🟢 -30% Q2 CONFIRMED carry | -30% | — | — | 🟢 CARRY | | **Iran export price (per Ghalibaf)** | 🟢 20% premium carry — implied ~$86 | (carry) | ~$70 | — | 🟢 CARRY | | **TankerTrackers Iran-afloat** | 🔴 UP TO 68M BARRELS carry; 3.8M through Hormuz post-blockade carry | (carry) | — | — | 🔴 CARRY | | **Total daily flow through Hormuz** | 🟢 **ABOVE 10 MB/D per TE NEW** — UAE 3.9 + Saudi ramp + non-Iran-Gulf recovery | (carry ~7-8 mb/d) | ~20 | — | 🟢 10-MB/D-NEW | | **Polymarket normalization odds** | 🔴 **JUL 15: 6% + JUL 31: 18% + DEC-31: 83% + JUL 7: 6% carry** — floor holds C201→C202 | Same | — | — | 🔴 FLOOR-HOLDS | **Threshold crossings:** No new $100/$120 threshold. Brent $72.12 carries. Mon-Asia-open PENDING under bifurcation: (i) Trump-week-off-restraint-framing = downside-anchor; (ii) Performer-calls-Trump-death + Mojtaba-visible-asymmetry + prayer-leader-unknown = upside-risk-tier. **Analyst forecasts (this cycle):** - All C201 carries (Goldman $80 Q4 Brent cut, WTI Q2 -30%, LiteFinance $67.93-71.84 range) - No fresh JPM / EIA forecasts C201→C202 **Geopolitical statements affecting price (C201→C202 NEW):** - 🔴🔴 **Three Khamenei sons appear + Mojtaba still invisible** — succession-visible-asymmetry NEW - 🔴🔴 **Mon-8am prayer-leader still not announced** per Hassanzadeh — legitimacy-test-at-dawn - 🔴 **Performer calls for Trump's death at funeral** per WaPo — official-stage-hostile-rhetoric - 🟢 **Trump Mount Rushmore: "Iran dying to settle — week off... because we're nice"** — restraint-anchor - 🟢 **Wright CNBC "no plan right now"** — SPR silent-tier confirms - 🟢 **KRG Hostani 200K+ bpd preservation** — Iraq-Turkey soft-lands - 🟢 **"No-crude-departed this-window" explicit** — corridor bifurcation - 🟢 **UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp + 10-mb/d total Hormuz flow** - ⚠️ **Parliament deferral "until after burial next month" per WSJ** - 🟢 **No UKMTO fresh incident Jul 5-6** **Mon-Asia open PENDING under bifurcation.** **Tail scenarios**: $75-80 (if Iran unilateral-toll-declaration post-funeral OR Mojtaba emerges hardliner OR performer-death-call escalates OR Parliament ratifies-post-funeral); $80-90 (if Iran-Parliament-rejection triggers formal toll-demand OR Mon-prayer-leader-vacuum triggers legitimacy-crisis); $90-100 (if IRGC-third-round); $98-110 (if nuclear/Iraq-K-C-closure/Houthi-systemic-Bab-el-Mandeb). Downside: WTI $65-67 (if Doha Round-2 breakthrough + Mojtaba-appears-Day-3 + prayer-leader-announced-legitimate + P&I re-entry + sustained 40+/day + 10-mb/d-total-flow-scales + 30-day-full-lift Jul 18 unopposed). ## 5. SPR **IEA coordinated release status:** | Release | Announced | Barrels | Physical Delivery Status | Δ | |---------|-----------|---------|--------------------------|---| | US SPR (March cadence) | Mar | 172M bbl program | 🔴 325.7M BBL total for week ending Jun 26 — LOWEST SINCE MAY 1983 carry; 43-YEAR-LOW; Semafor "172M FIRST-ROUND FULLY DRAWN" first week of July carry; ~76M above 150M operational floor; 🟢 **WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER DRAWDOWN + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION FROM BIG HILL / BRYAN MOUND NEW** — mechanical-continuation, NOT fresh second-round | 🟢 WRIGHT-SILENT-CONFIRMS | | IEA-coordinated (30-nation) | Mar | 400M bbl program | Continues per March cadence carry; Japan 80M bbl release Mar 16 ongoing | CARRY | | **US Treasury 60-day sanctions waiver (GL X)** | Jun 22 | Through Aug 21, 2026 | 🟢 CONFIRMED carry | 🟢 CARRY | | **US 30-day-blockade-lift-clock** | Jun 18 | Physical blockade removal | 🟢 **DAY 18 OF 30 → JUL 18 FULL-LIFT-TERMINUS (13 DAYS OUT)** carry | 🟢 CARRY | | **US replenishment plans (Wright)** | Mar | "more than replace" 200M within next year | 133M bbl contracted carry; 86M first solicitation carry | CARRY | | **NEW release announcements C201→C202** | — | — | **NONE** per energy.gov / eia.gov (4-8h fresh) — Wright-CNBC "no plan right now" | 🟢 SILENT-CONFIRMS | **Country reserves table:** | Country | Reserve Days | Emergency Actions | Δ | |---------|-------------|-------------------|---| | Japan | 254 days; 80M-bbl Mar 16 release ongoing; 350M-bbl onshore ~150 days per Zero Carbon carry | Continues; no new emergency | CARRY | | South Korea | 208 days carry | (carry) | CARRY | | China | ~108-120 days; 1.2B bbl strategic per Zero Carbon carry | (carry) | CARRY | | **India** | ⚠️🔴 **THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE FLAGGED CARRY**: 9-10 (Outlook/PSUWatch SPR-strict) vs 25 (World Oil Jul-2 SPR-broader) vs 69 (Zero Carbon total-supply); 🟢 **INDIA SPR-EXPANSION + DIVERSIFICATION carry**; 96%-recovery + June >5 mb/d carry; **India second-largest Hormuz-crude-destination at 14.7% per IEA carry** | ⚠️🔴 DEEPENS-CARRY | | **US (NEW FLOOR)** | 🔴 SPR 325.7M — 43-year-low carry; 🔴 Semafor 172M-program-terminus CONFIRMED carry; 🟢 **WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" CONFIRMS SILENT-TIER + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION FROM BIG HILL / BRYAN MOUND (MECHANICAL-EXCHANGE NOT SECOND-ROUND) NEW** — ~76M above 150M operational floor | 🟢 SILENT-CONFIRMS-MECHANICAL | | Philippines | EO 110 emergency stands carry; PAL cliff arrived Jun 30 carry | 🔴 CLIFF-CARRY | CARRY | **SPR runway math**: Cumulative ~572M bbl committed (172M US + 400M IEA program) + GL X Aug-21 + 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 → Jul 18 + Ghalibaf 40M+ barrels + TASS-68M-afloat + India June-empirical + Persian Gulf 75%-recovery + Qatar-LNG-loading + Jul-3-39-transits + **10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow-NEW** carry. **🔴 US SPR 325.7M at 43-year-low; 172M first-round FULLY DRAWN per Semafor; 🟢 WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" TO ALTER + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION MECHANICAL-EXCHANGE-ONLY = SPR-decision-window-silent-tier CONFIRMS through weekend.** Empirical Iran 40-68M-barrels-flow + Brent-$72.12 + Bloomberg-8-ship-U-turn + UAE-3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-flow suggests structural supply-tier absorbing WITHOUT SPR second-round despite Iran corridor-control enforcement; decision-window-restraint tier held through Sun-eve/Mon-Asia-open. ## 6. Bypass Infrastructure | Route | Capacity (mb/d) | Utilization (mb/d) | Spare (mb/d) | Status | Δ | |-------|-----------------|-------------------|--------------|--------|---| | **Saudi East-West (Petroline)** | 7.0 | Full capacity since Mar 11 | 0 | At-cap + **SAUDI RAMP-TO-ASIA VIA HORMUZ NEW per TE** = adds non-Iran-Gulf-tier flow above pipeline | 🟢 SAUDI-RAMP-NEW | | **UAE ADCOP** | 1.5 → 1.8 max flex | 1.06 (71% util) per IEA carry; **UAE 3.9 mb/d Hormuz-flow per TE NEW** | 0.44 | Spare; UAE 573K bpd to India carry; **3.9 mb/d total UAE Hormuz flow NEW** | 🟢 3.9-MB/D-NEW | | **Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan** | 0.5 → 0.77 (ramp 2.5mo); **contract expires Jul 27 (DAY 22 OUT)** | 🟢 ~230K bpd carry; 🟢 **KRG DIRECTOR HOSTANI: "MORE THAN 200K BPD" TO KEEP FLOWING VIA CEYHAN VIA INTERIM PROTOCOL NEW-EXPLICIT-CONFIRMATION** per Turkish Minute | — | 🔴 TURKEY FORMALLY REJECTS 30-day extension carry; 🟢 **INTERIM PROTOCOL RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING carry + KRG-HOSTANI 200K+ BPD EXPLICIT NEW**; 🟢 Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry; 🟢 Basra→K-C northern-shift accelerating carry; 🟢 Turkey-new-deal-Basra 450K bpd carry; **22 DAYS TO FORMAL EXPIRY** | 🟢/🔴 KRG-200K-EXPLICIT / 22-DAY-COUNTDOWN | | **Iraq $5B southern→Ceyhan/Baniyas/Aqaba pipeline** | 2.5 (long-dated) | — | — | 🟢 BASRA-HADITHA 700km carry | 🟢 CARRY | | **Oman ports (Duqm, Salalah)** | (carry) | (carry) | — | (carry) | CARRY | | **Egypt SUMED** | (carry) | (carry) | — | (carry) | CARRY | | **Cape of Good Hope rerouting** | (variable) | (variable) | — | Maersk + MSC + CMA CGM + Hapag-Lloyd all on Cape through 2026 carry | CARRY | **GAP: 11.4-12.6 mb/d unbridgeable** carry. UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi-ramp + **10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow-NEW** = non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier confirms; but structural GAP unchanged (pre-war ~20 mb/d Hormuz vs ~7.4-8.6 mb/d operational bypass). Turkey-Iraq interim-protocol-RECONFIRMED-ADVANCING + KRG-Hostani-200K-EXPLICIT = pipeline-terminus soft-lands rather than hard-cutoff. ## 7. Maritime Insurance | Parameter | Current | Δ | |-----------|---------|---| | **War risk premium %** | 🟡 Hormuz premiums 0.2%→1% hull carry (~$800K/VLCC voyage carry); Lloyd's List "$10M-$14M charterer's account extreme cases" carry; ~1% Persian Gulf carry; Lloyd's/Chubb 0.8-1.5% carry; 8.0x pre-crisis baseline carry; Anews-easing-Jul-2 carry | 🟢 CARRY | | **P&I club coverage status** | ALL 12 IG P&I clubs cancelled non-poolable war risks carry; **liability coverage through P&I Clubs is non-cancellable and remains reinsured in London** per Howden Re carry; **Day 88 → Day 88 (Jul 5-6 transition)** — no re-entry signal C201→C202 | CARRY-DAY-88 | | **Lloyd's-London war-risk availability (CLARIFICATION)** | 🟢 "War insurance available in Lloyd's/London company market for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz" carry; Lloyd's writes 70-80% of world marine-war-business | 🟢 CARRY-CLARIFIED | | **VLCC day rates** | 🔴 TD3C peak $423,736/day carry; VLCCs near $470K/day per OilPrice carry; spot ~$200K/day Gulf-China carry; rate doubled ~$106K → >$190K/day post-MoU carry; Anews "easing" carry | 🔴 CARRY / EASING-CARRY | | **Lloyd's/Chubb consortium ($400M)** | 🟢 **DAY 18 → DAY 19 OPERATIONAL** carry — $200M hull+P&I + $200M cargo; Chubb lead; rates 0.8-1.5% | 🟢 DAY-19-EXTENDS | | **DFC reinsurance program** | 🟢 $40B carry per irregular warfare + WEF | 🟢 CARRY | | **BIMCO surcharge** | No formal Gulf surcharge update C201→C202 | CARRY | | **Crew refusal rate** | Hormuz-tier carry; LMA "safety not insurance" framing carry; Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship-U-turn signals crew-tier still cautious despite easing-signals; Ghalibaf-40M+ + TASS-68M + Brent-$72 easing carries | 🟢/⚠️ CARRY | | **Fixture cancellations** | 🔴 **IMO evacuation paused 256-262H+ — 5-DAY THRESHOLD CROSSED BY 136-142H**; Dominguez decision at +10-day horizon | 🔴 -4-8H-DEEPER | **P&I re-entry absence**: Day 88. Single strongest structural de-escalation indicator. NO re-entry signal C201→C202; Lloyd's-Chubb consortium Day-19 confirmed + Lloyd's-London-market-war-insurance-available carry + Ghalibaf-40M+ + Jul-3-39-transits + Brent-$72.12 + Doha-Round-2-firm + Trump-week-off-restraint + Wright-SPR-silent-confirms + KRG-200K + 10-mb/d-total-flow = converging containment-signals for potential re-assessment. But TRUMP-INTERNATIONAL-WATERS-DOCTRINE + IRAN-GHARIBABADI-UNILATERAL + ARAGHCHI-STRAIT-NOT-PREWAR + SAUDI-FM-REJECTION + MOJTABA-VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY + PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN + PERFORMER-CALLS-TRUMP-DEATH + PARLIAMENT-DEFERRAL-NEXT-MONTH + Bloomberg-Jul-4 U-turn + "no-crude-departed-this-window" = re-entry decision delays through Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-date-setting + resolution of Mon-8am-prayer-leader-question + Aug-Parliament-window. ## 8. Shadow Fleet - No new OFAC designation C201→C202 (4-8h fresh) per home.treasury.gov / state.gov (OFAC 19 vessels + Hengli Petrochemical Dalian teapot + ~40 shipping firms cumulative carries) - 🟢 US Treasury 60-day sanctions waiver (GL X through Aug 21) carry - 🟢 Ghalibaf: Iran exported 40M+ barrels since Jun 18 at 20% premium carry; TankerTrackers 3.8M-through-Hormuz-post-blockade carry - 🔴 TASS/Bloomberg UP TO 68M BARRELS IRANIAN OIL AFLOAT carry - 🔴 Iran's oil exports fell more than 90% in May per Kharon carry — pre-blockade-lift context - 🟢 State Department cumulative sanctions carry - No fresh GRU/Wagner militarization signal C201→C202 - No fresh IRGC friendly-fire incident C201→C202 - **Shadow fleet size confirmed 1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet) baseline carry** ## 9. Country Response Matrix | Country | Posture | Key Actions | Risk Level | Δ | |---------|---------|-------------|------------|---| | **US** | Ceasefire-holds + STAND-DOWN + 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 + GL X Aug-21 | ALL C201 carries + 🟢 **TRUMP MOUNT-RUSHMORE "IRAN DYING TO SETTLE — WEEK OFF" NEW-RESTRAINT-FRAMING**; 🟢 **WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" SPR-SILENT-CONFIRMS + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION MECHANICAL NEW** | 🟢 WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT + WRIGHT-SILENT-NEW | | **Israel** | Ceasefire-holds carry + Israel-not-signatory-to-Iran-MoU carry | Israel-Hayom Jul-2 "final stretch" carry; Katz-hardens carry; Israel-assassination-threat-driving Mojtaba-absence per RFERL/JPost carry; NO fresh Israel-signal Day-3-approach 4-8h | 🔴 CARRY | | **Iran** | ALL C201 carries: Ghalibaf-Parliament-Speaker + Baghaei-FM 5-precondition + Araghchi "30-day-sole-control" | ⚠️🔴 **THREE KHAMENEI SONS APPEAR AT MOURNING JUL 5 — MOJTABA STILL INVISIBLE** per CNN Jul-5-live — visible-family-asymmetry-tier NEW; ⚠️🔴 **PRAYER-LEADER MON-8AM STILL NOT ANNOUNCED per HASSANZADEH** — legitimacy-test-at-dawn; ⚠️ **PARLIAMENT VOTE DEFERRED "UNTIL AFTER BURIAL NEXT MONTH" per WSJ** — deferral-structural-lock-EXPLICIT; 🔴 **PERFORMER CALLS FOR TRUMP'S DEATH AT FUNERAL** per WaPo — hostile-rhetoric-from-official-stage NEW; all C201 substance-tier carries | 🔴🔴 VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY-NEW + PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN + HOSTILE-RHETORIC-NEW + PARLIAMENT-STRUCTURAL-LOCK | | **Saudi** | E-W pipeline full capacity 7.0 mb/d carry; FM-Faisal-rejects-fee-plan carry | 🟢 **SAUDI RAMP-TO-ASIA VIA HORMUZ per TE NEW** — non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms via 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow | 🟢 SAUDI-RAMP-NEW | | **UAE** | ADCOP 71% util carry; UAE-573K-bpd-to-India-June carry | 🟢 **UAE 3.9 MB/D TOTAL HORMUZ FLOW per TE NEW** — export recovery confirms | 🟢 3.9-MB/D-NEW | | **Qatar** | Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending 4-day carry; 8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan carry | Qatar-PM al-Thani "positive progress" carry; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry | 🟢 CARRY | | **Oman** | Iran-Oman parallel-fee-scheme voluntary-framing carry | 🔴🔴 TRUMP-WARNED-OMAN carry + Gharibabadi-unilateral-threat carry | 🔴🔴 CARRY-UNDER-DUAL-PRESSURE | | **Iraq** | K-C ~230K bpd carry; Basra-shift accelerating carry | 🟢 **INTERIM PROTOCOL CARRY + KRG DIRECTOR HOSTANI EXPLICIT: "MORE THAN 200K BPD" PRESERVATION NEW** per Turkish Minute; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry; K-C formal-expiry Day 22 out | 🟢 KRG-HOSTANI-200K-EXPLICIT-NEW | | **Kuwait** | Conflict-zone-casualty carry | (no fresh action) | 🔴 CARRY | | **Bahrain** | Conflict-zone-casualty carry | (no fresh action) | 🔴 CARRY | | **China** | 108-120 days reserves carry; ~90% Iran-oil-purchaser carry | Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending; teapot-refinery-imports carry | 🟢 CARRY | | **India** | ALL C201 carries: THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE + 96%-recovery + June >5 mb/d + 14.7% Hormuz-crude-destination + highest-vulnerability-tier + SPR-EXPANSION | (no fresh action C201→C202) | ⚠️🔴/🟢 CARRY | | **Japan** | 254 days carry; 80M-bbl release ongoing carry; **10.9% Hormuz-crude-destination + highest-vulnerability-tier (risk score 6.4)** carry | (no fresh action) | 🟢 CARRY | | **South Korea** | 208 days carry; **12.0% Hormuz-crude-destination + vulnerability-tier (risk score 5.3)** carry | (no fresh action) | 🟢 CARRY | | **Philippines** | EO 110 emergency + PAL cliff-arrived carry | 🔴 CLIFF-CARRY | 🔴 CARRY | | **Turkey** | K-C-formal-rejection carry | 🟢 **INTERIM-PROTOCOL CARRY + KRG-HOSTANI-200K-EXPLICIT NEW** — pipeline-terminus soft-lands | 🟢 PROTOCOL-CARRY-EXPLICIT | | **Pakistan** | Mediator-institutionalized carry | (no fresh action) | 🔴 CARRY | | **Lebanon** | Institutional-committee-formalized carry + **8-DAY POST-KINETIC CROSSED JUL 5 carry**; 9-day threshold Mon-morning | Berri + Hezbollah-Qassem rejection carries | 🟢 9-DAY-APPROACHES | ## 10. Policy Actions | Date | Actor | Action | Δ | |------|-------|--------|---| | Jul 5-6 | 🔴🔴 Iran (Regime) | Funeral Day-3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled per Hassanzadeh (IRGC-Tehran-commander); prayer-leader (religious-figure vs family-member) NOT ANNOUNCED per CBS/PBS | 🔴🔴 NEW PRAYER-LEADER-UNKNOWN | | Jul 5 | 🔴🔴 Iran (Khamenei-family) | Three of Khamenei's sons appear at mourning Tehran — Mojtaba still invisible per CNN Jul-5-live | 🔴🔴 NEW VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY | | Jul 4-5 | 🔴 Iran (funeral-stage) | Performer calls for Trump's death at Khamenei funeral per WaPo | 🔴 NEW HOSTILE-RHETORIC | | Jul 4-5 | 🟢 US (Trump) | Mount Rushmore: "Iran is dying to settle... we gave them a week off for a funeral, because we're nice" per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN | 🟢 NEW WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT | | Jul 5 | 🟢 US (Wright / DOE) | CNBC: "no plan right now" to alter SPR drawdown; 39.5M bbl remaining in program; 40M-bbl new solicitation from Big Hill/Bryan Mound (mechanical-exchange, NOT second-round) per thewellnews.com | 🟢 NEW WRIGHT-SILENT-CONFIRMS | | Jul 4-5 | 🟢 Iraq/Turkey/KRG | KRG director Khazal Hostani: "more than 200,000 barrels per day" to keep flowing via Ceyhan via interim protocol per Turkish Minute | 🟢 NEW KRG-HOSTANI-EXPLICIT | | Jul 3 | 🟢 hormuzstraitmonitor (via Wiki) | JUL-3 39 transits explicit: 17-in tanker-gas-heavy (12/17) split both corridors + 22-out light-products-only / NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window | 🟢 NEW CORRIDOR-BIFURCATION-EXPLICIT | | Jul 3-5 | 🟢 TE / market | UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp + total daily flow above 10 mb/d through Hormuz | 🟢 NEW 10-MB/D-TOTAL | | Jul 5 (WSJ) | ⚠️ Iran hardline legislators | "Postponed protest plans against parliament closure until after Ali Khamenei's burial next month" | ⚠️ NEW DEFERRAL-STRUCTURAL-LOCK | | Jul 4-5 | 🟢 UKMTO/MARAD | No fresh incident weekend into Mon-Asia-transit | 🟢 EXTENDS | | Priors | (multiple) | All C201-and-prior policy actions CARRY unchanged | CARRY | ## 11. Key Metrics Dashboard | Metric | Value | Trend | Signal | C202 Δ | |--------|-------|-------|--------|--------| | Conflict day count | 128 (War Day 128) | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Iran civilian dead (cumulative) | 3,468-6,000+ | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Iran displaced (cumulative) | ~3.2M IDPs | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | US KIA/wounded (cumulative) | 15 / 543 | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Strait transits/day | 🟢 **39 Jul-3 CARRY (17-in tanker-gas-heavy 12/17 + 22-out light-products-only / NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED EXPLICIT)**; Jul-4 straits.live 27 carry; **7DMA crude-flow near-zero carry**; Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship-U-turn carry; **UAE 3.9 + Saudi ramp + 10-mb/d total NEW** | Bifurcates | 🟢 CORRIDOR-EXPLICIT + 10-MB/D | 🟢 EXPLICIT-NEW | | Brent crude ($/bbl) | 🟢 $72.12 Jul-3 spot CARRY | Flat | 🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | WTI crude ($/bbl) | 🟢 ~$68-69 Jul-2-3 carry | Flat | 🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | VLCC day rates | 🔴 TD3C $423K peak + spot ~$200K/day + Anews-easing carry | Elevated / easing | 🔴/🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | War risk premium (%) | 🟡 ~1% Persian Gulf + Lloyd's-London-market-available carry | Flat / easing | 🟡 CARRY | CARRY | | Vessels attacked (cumulative) | 46+ (IMO cumulative baseline) | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Seafarers killed/missing (cumulative) | 14 fatalities (IMO cumulative) | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | IEA release (barrels committed) | 400M program continues | Flat | 🟡 CARRY | CARRY | | US SPR release (barrels) | 🔴 172M first-round FULLY DRAWN + SPR 325.7M at 43-year-low carry; 🟢 **WRIGHT-CNBC "NO PLAN RIGHT NOW" + 39.5M REMAINING + 40M-BBL NEW SOLICITATION BIG-HILL/BRYAN-MOUND MECHANICAL-EXCHANGE-ONLY NEW** | Silent-confirms | 🟢 SILENT-CONFIRMS | 🟢 WRIGHT-NEW | | Japan SPR release (barrels) | 80M bbl release Mar 16 ongoing | Flat | 🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | Iraq oil exports (mb/d) | ~230K bpd via K-C + Basra-shift + **KRG-HOSTANI EXPLICIT 200K+ BPD PRESERVATION via interim protocol NEW** | Preservation-tier | 🟢 EXPLICIT-NEW | 🟢 KRG-NEW | | Escort timeline (days to operational) | Vance-deconfliction-cell mechanism carry | Flat | 🟡 CARRY | CARRY | | E-W pipeline utilization (mb/d) | 7.0 at full capacity + Saudi-ramp-to-Asia carry | Flat | 🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | Total bypass capacity (mb/d) | 7.4-8.6 (at max flex) | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Supply gap (GAP: X mb/d) | 🔴 11.4-12.6 mb/d unbridgeable | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Total Hormuz daily flow | 🟢 **ABOVE 10 MB/D per TE NEW** — UAE 3.9 + Saudi ramp + non-Iran-Gulf recovery | Recovering | 🟢 10-MB/D-NEW | 🟢 NEW | | India reserve days | ⚠️🔴 **THREE-WAY DIVERGENCE CARRY**: 9-10 (SPR-strict) vs 25 (SPR-broader) vs 69 (total-supply) | Source-lens triangulates | ⚠️🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | China reserve days | 108-120 days | Flat | 🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | Ships trapped in Gulf | 485-anchored still-substantial-backlog carry; Bloomberg-Jul-4-8-U-turn ≠ trapped but Iran-route-switched | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Mine threat level | 🔴 JMIC SUBSTANTIAL confirmed | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | IRGC posture | Formal-closure + STAND-DOWN + Ghalibaf-5-preconditions + Iran-Oman-fee-scheme + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Trump-veto + Saudi-anti-fee + **Parliament-deferral-structural-lock-until-next-month NEW** | Quadruple-veto-stalemate | 🔴🔴 CARRY / DEFERRAL-LOCK-NEW | 🔴🔴 NEW | | P&I insurance status | ALL 12 IG clubs withdrawn; **Day 88 of absence**; Lloyd's-London-market-war-insurance-available carry | Absent | 🔴 CARRY-DAY-88 | CARRY | | Qatar LNG status | 8+ empty LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan carry; Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending 4-day | Recovery-tier | 🟢 CARRY | CARRY | | Dual chokepoint status | Hormuz + Red Sea simultaneously disrupted carry; Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 144-152h+ empirical-unconfirmed locks harder | Bifurcating | 🔴/⚠️ 144-152H+ | ⚠️ 144-152H+ | | Ceasefire status | HOLDS-AT-DOHA-ROUND-1 + ROUND-2-POST-FUNERAL-FIRM + KINETIC-CLEAN-4-8H-DEEPER + TRUMP-WEEK-OFF-RESTRAINT-NEW + LEBANON-8-DAY-CROSSED + NO-UKMTO ↔ QUADRUPLE-VETO-CARRIES + HOSTILE-RHETORIC-NEW + VISIBLE-ASYMMETRY-NEW | Bifurcates hard | 🟡🔴 BIFURCATES-HARDER | 🔴🔴 SUCCESSION-DEEPENS | | Diplomatic channels | Doha Round-1 concludes; Round-2 post-funeral firm; Iran-US-Lebanon-committee; Pakistan+Qatar mediators; Vance-deconfliction-cell; **Trump week-off-restraint-framing NEW**; Iran-MFA denies US-parallel-track | Multi-channel active with quadruple-veto | 🟢/🔴🔴 WEEK-OFF-NEW / VETO-CARRY | 🟢 NEW | | SE Asia crisis status | Philippines cliff-arrived + PAL EO 110 carry | Flat | 🔴 CARRY | CARRY | | Funeral-succession-tier | Day 3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled; prayer-leader NOT-ANNOUNCED; three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible = visible-asymmetry-tier NEW | Tightening HARDER | 🔴🔴 SUCCESSION-DEEPENS | 🔴🔴 NEW | ## 12. Convergence Assessment ### (a) What Changed This Cycle 1. 🔴🔴 **Funeral Day 3 Mon 8am prayer scheduled per Hassanzadeh — prayer-leader NOT ANNOUNCED**. Either religious-figure or family-member per CBS/PBS carry. **First-visible-test of succession-legitimacy at Mon-dawn**. 2. 🔴🔴 **Three of Khamenei's sons appear at mourning Jul 5 — Mojtaba still invisible** per CNN Jul-5-live. **Visible-family-asymmetry-tier NEW**: three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-still-hidden = succession-ritual-gap deepens beyond simple absence into family-visibility-asymmetry-signal. 3. 🔴 **Performer calls for Trump's death at Khamenei funeral Jul 4-5** per WaPo. **Hostile-rhetoric-tier from official-Iran-stage NEW**; funeral-emotional-momentum risk for anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure post-Jul-9. 4. 🟢 **Trump Mount Rushmore Jul-4-5**: "Iran is dying to settle... we gave them a week off for a funeral, because we're nice" per Newsweek/CBS/ABC/CNN. **Week-off framing = restraint-signal + diplomacy-anchor**; harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral firm; Trump-restraint-tier positive-tone preserved despite anti-Trump-rhetoric from Iran-stage. 5. 🟢 **Wright CNBC "no plan right now" to alter drawdown + 39.5M bbl remaining + 40M-bbl new solicitation from Big Hill/Bryan Mound** per thewellnews.com. SPR-decision-window-silent-tier CONFIRMS through weekend; new solicitation = mechanical-exchange, NOT fresh second-round. 6. 🟢 **KRG director Hostani: "more than 200,000 barrels per day" preservation via interim protocol** per Turkish Minute. Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands EXPLICITLY confirmed at KRG-official-level; Iraq FM Fri "expected to be signed" carry. 7. 🟢 **Hormuzstraitmonitor explicit Jul-3**: 17-inbound tanker-gas-heavy (12 of 17) split both corridors + 22-outbound light-products-only / **NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window** per Wikipedia+argus. **Corridor-bifurcation explicit** — deepens 7DMA-crude-flow-near-zero structural signal from C201. 8. 🟢 **UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi ramp-to-Asia + total daily flow above 10 mb/d through Hormuz** per TE. Non-Iran-Gulf recovery-tier confirms; bypass+non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier maintains oil-market containment. 9. ⚠️ **Hardline legislators "postponed protest until after Khamenei burial next month"** per WSJ. Parliament-vote-deferral EXTENDS structurally-locked; "next month" = post-Jul-9 → possibly Aug window. 10. 🟢 **No UKMTO/MARAD fresh incident Jul 5-6** — clean-weekend extends into Mon-Asia-transit. 11. 🔴 **Houthi Jul-1 4-claims 144-152H+ empirically UNCONFIRMED** — 7-day empirical-null-window Mon-eve ~20h out. ### (b) Structural Locks Status - **Lock 1 (Price)**: 🟢 **LOOSENING (modest, confirmed)** — Brent $72.12 Jul-3 carry; UAE 3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow strengthens recovery-tier; Mon-Asia open PENDING under Trump-week-off-restraint-anchor vs hostile-rhetoric-tier bifurcation. - **Lock 2 (Supply)**: 🟡 **HOLDING with bifurcation-explicit** — Jul 3 transits 39 vessels carry; **"NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window" explicit** deepens 7DMA structural signal; UAE 3.9 + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow = non-Iran-Gulf compensation confirms; Bloomberg Jul-4 8-ship U-turn carry; structural GAP 11.4-12.6 mb/d unchanged; Iraq-K-C interim-protocol + KRG-Hostani-200K explicit. - **Lock 3 (Insurance)**: 🟡 **HOLDING** — Day 88 P&I absence extends; Lloyd's-London market-war-insurance-available carry; Lloyd's/Chubb consortium Day-19 operational; converging containment-signals but quadruple-veto + visible-asymmetry + prayer-leader-unknown + hostile-rhetoric delay re-entry through Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2 + Mon-8am-prayer-leader-question + Aug-Parliament-window. - **Lock 4 (Labor)**: 🟡 **HOLDING with easing-signals complicated** — Anews-easing + Jul-3-39-transits + Ghalibaf-40M+ + Brent-$72.12 easing-signals; Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn complicates crew-tier-easing; IMO evacuation-paused 256-262H+ (5-day-crossed-by-136-142h). - **Lock 5 (Duration)**: 🔴🔴 **TIGHTENING HARD** — All C201 quadruple-veto carries (Trump-international-waters + Gharibabadi-unilateral + Araghchi-not-prewar + Saudi-FM-rejection); **Parliament-deferral STRUCTURALLY LOCKED "until next month"** per WSJ; Iran-toll-plan-post-Aug-18 hardens; Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor holds. - **Lock 6 (Nuclear)**: 🔴 **HOLDING with tightening at edges** — IAEA-Bushehr+Tehran-only carry; nuclear/sanctions/regional-security NOT-in-technical-sessions carry. - **Lock 7 (Geographic)**: 🟢 **LOOSENING (extends)** — Lebanon 8-day-post-kinetic CROSSED (9-day approaches Mon-morning); Iran-Israel PAUSE 36th day; Iran-US kinetic 4-8h+ null; Axios null carry; NO-UKMTO-Jul-5-6. - **Lock 8 (Capability)**: 🟡 **HOLDING** — Vance-deconfliction-cell carry; no fresh minesweeping deployment; US-still-no-dedicated-minesweepers-in-theater carry. - **Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint)**: 🟡 **HOLDING with Houthi-tier locking harder toward empirical-null** — Houthi-Jul-1 4-claims 144-152h+ UNCONFIRMED locks harder (7-day threshold Mon-eve ~20h); MARAD 2026-006 through Sep-22 carry. - **Lock 10 (Leadership)**: 🔴🔴 **TIGHTENING HARDER** — **THREE-SONS-VISIBLE + MOJTABA-INVISIBLE = visible-family-asymmetry NEW**; Prayer-leader Mon-8am NOT ANNOUNCED = first-visible-legitimacy-test-at-dawn; hiding-since-war-began per JPost; wounded Feb-28 strike; **succession-ritual-gap DEEPENS beyond simple-absence into family-visibility-asymmetry-tier**; Iran-Deputy-FM speaking without supreme-leader-clarity. - **Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure)**: 🟡 **HOLDING** — Ras Laffan 8+ empty LNG carriers + Al Hamla → China verification-still-pending 4-day; QatarEnergy 50%-capacity carry; South Pars carry; no new infrastructure strike C201→C202. ### (c) Critical Watch (next 12-96h) 1. Mon-8am Tehran prayer-leader identity (religious-figure vs family-member vs vacuum) 2. Any Mojtaba appearance-signal Day-3 dawn 3. Mon-Asia oil-open gap-move under week-off-restraint vs hostile-rhetoric bifurcation 4. Lebanon-Israel 9-day threshold Mon-morning 5. Any Trump Truth-Social response to performer-death-call 6. Any Katz/Israel response to Iran-mobilization-rhetoric + three-sons-appearance 7. Ghalibaf/Araghchi funeral Day-3 statement-if-any 8. Iraq-Turkey formal interim-protocol signing pre-Jul-27 (22 days) 9. Polymarket Dec-31 83% floor into weekly-open 10. UKMTO/MARAD Mon incident-signal 11. Al Hamla → China arrival empirical-confirmation (4-day-pending) 12. Any Iran-Parliament vote-emergence Mon-post-Day-3 13. Houthi Jul-1 4-vessel-claims 168h/7-day threshold Mon-eve (~20h out) — full empirical-null-lock 14. Mashhad burial Jul 9 (3 days) security-posture and Mojtaba appearance-window 15. Doha Round-2 date-setting post-Mashhad-burial firm-vs-slip 16. Any Iran unilateral-toll-declaration post-Trump-international-waters-doctrine 17. 30-day-blockade-lift Day 18 of 30 pressure — full-lift terminus Jul 18 (13 days) 18. Any Saudi follow-through on FM-Faisal-anti-fee-plan-front 19. Total-Hormuz-flow above 10 mb/d sustainability 20. Whether prayer-leader-vacuum triggers Mon-legitimacy-crisis-signal ### (d) Net Assessment **C202 documents a narrow ~4-8h Sun-late-eve → Mon-Asia-open handoff cycle.** The delta from C201 is compressed but reveals two significant tightenings, two significant loosenings, and multiple structural confirmations. The two tightenings both concentrate in the Leadership lock: (i) three of Khamenei's sons appeared at mourning while Mojtaba remained invisible per CNN — visible-family-asymmetry-tier NEW; (ii) the Mon-8am prayer scheduled per Hassanzadeh but prayer-leader still not announced — first-visible-test of succession-legitimacy at Mon-dawn. The two loosenings both concentrate in restraint/containment: (i) Trump Mount Rushmore "week off... because we're nice" = restraint-anchor that harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral firm; (ii) Wright-CNBC "no plan right now" to alter SPR drawdown = decision-window-silent-tier confirms mechanically-continuing without fresh second-round. Structural confirmations: KRG director Hostani explicitly names 200K+ bpd preservation via interim protocol (Iraq-Turkey pipeline-terminus-soft-lands crystallizes at KRG-official-level); hormuzstraitmonitor makes explicit that Jul-3 transits were tanker-gas-heavy inbound + light-products-only outbound with NO CRUDE DEPARTED this-window (corridor-bifurcation explicit deepens 7DMA-crude-flow-near-zero structural signal); UAE 3.9 mb/d + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow (non-Iran-Gulf compensation-tier confirms). Meanwhile the funeral-stage performer-calls-Trump-death introduces a new hostile-rhetoric-tier from official-Iran-venue that risks funeral-emotional-momentum leaking into anti-US kinetic-restart-pressure post-Jul-9. **Structural-locks pattern (C202)**: 2 loosening (Price + Geographic — both deepen), 6 holding (Supply-with-bifurcation-explicit, Insurance, Labor-with-easing-complicated, Capability, Dual-Chokepoint, Energy-Infrastructure), 3 tightening (Duration TIGHTENS-HARD-carries + Parliament-deferral-structural-lock-new; Leadership TIGHTENS-HARDER via visible-asymmetry + prayer-leader-unknown; Nuclear-holding-toward-tightening). Aggregate lock-count flat vs C201 but Leadership tightens HARDER (visible-family-asymmetry deepens Mojtaba-absent-Day-2); Duration adds Parliament-deferral-structural-lock explicitly; Supply-bifurcation clarifies from "close-to-zero-7DMA" to "NO-CRUDE-DEPARTED-this-window-EXPLICIT" — recovery-tier confirmed as non-crude-heavy while corridor-control still enforced. Absence of P&I re-entry through Day 88 despite Wright-SPR-silent + KRG-200K + 10-mb/d-total-flow + Trump-week-off + Lloyd's-London-clarification + Chubb-Day-19 suggests underwriter-tier deeper into wait-mode pending Mon-8am-prayer-leader-question + Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 + Doha-Round-2-firm-date + Aug-Parliament-window resolution. **Trajectory absent intervention**: Oil-market accepts containment as base case with UAE-3.9-mb/d + Saudi-ramp + 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow strengthening the supply-recovery-tier while corridor "no-crude-departed-this-window" confirms Iran corridor-control still enforced. Political-succession-tier destabilizes visibly at family-visibility-asymmetry-level (three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible) — Mon-8am prayer-leader identity will be the first-visible-legitimacy-test. Substance-tier holds C201 quadruple-veto unchanged with Parliament-deferral now structurally-locked "until next month" per WSJ = deferral extending toward Aug window. The 30-day-blockade-lift-Jul-18-terminus (13 days out) remains the next major inflection meeting quadruple-veto + Iran-toll-post-Aug-18-declared-regime + potential Iran-unilateral-toll-declaration if Muscat refuses. Trump-week-off-framing provides an offsetting restraint-anchor that harmonizes with Doha-Round-2-post-funeral firm — the funeral-week diplomatic-pause is now bilaterally-framed as intentional-restraint rather than merely-delay. **Key uncertainties**: (a) Mon-8am prayer-leader identity (religious-figure = one path, family-member-non-Mojtaba = another, vacuum = a third); (b) whether Mojtaba appears at Mashhad-burial-Jul-9 or continues invisible — legitimacy-tier fate at burial-terminus; (c) whether Trump-week-off-restraint-tier survives performer-death-call (does Trump respond via Truth Social?); (d) whether Iran-Parliament vote emerges Aug or continues deferred; (e) whether 10-mb/d-total-Hormuz-flow sustains through Mon-Asia-week and translates to crude-flow-recovery within 96h or "no-crude-departed" persists as structural-signal; (f) whether Wright-SPR-silent tier holds through Mon-Asia-open or a second-round announcement emerges under any fresh shock; (g) whether Katz/Israel breaks from ceasefire-holds under Iran-mobilization-rhetoric. **Source-lens reconciliation notes**: (1) India-reserves-3-way-split carry (9-10 / 25 / 69 days) — parallel-source-lens preserved. (2) Araghchi funeral-attendance framing "70+ countries" vs Al Jazeera "100+" carry. (3) Bloomberg-Jul-4 8-ship U-turn vs Jul-3 39-transits carry — corridor-bifurcation confirmed via "no-crude-departed" wiki+argus explicit. (4) Trump-Iran-week-off Mount Rushmore vs Iran-performer-Trump-death funeral-stage = parallel-source-lens on restraint-vs-hostility-tier. (5) Wright-CNBC "no plan right now" vs 40M-bbl-new-solicitation = mechanical-exchange, NOT policy-second-round drawdown — flagged not silently resolved. (6) Prayer-leader-Mon-8am NOT-announced per Hassanzadeh — pending Mon-dawn signal. --- **Sources**: - [CNN Jul 5 — Three of Khamenei's Sons Join Mass Mourning But Not His Successor](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/05/world/live-news/iran-khamenei-funeral-war-trump) - [PBS — Iran begins dayslong funeral for the late Supreme Leader Khamenei](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-begins-dayslong-funeral-for-the-late-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed-in-war) - [CBS News — Tehran enters second day of massive funeral for slain supreme leader](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-trump-negotiations-pause-ayatollah-funeral/) - [Investing.com/AP — Powerful Iranian general reappears in public ahead of Khamenei funeral](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/powerful-iranian-general-reappears-in-public-ahead-of-khamenei-funeral--ap-4775168) - [WaPo — Performer calls for Trump's death at funeral for Iran's late supreme leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/04/khamenei-funeral-supreme-leader-iran-us-war-july-5-2026/94aeaee2-7824-11f1-b665-5f8be87f3787_story.html) - [Newsweek — What Trump and Iran Have Said About Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's Funeral](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-iran-comments-khamenei-funeral-12158352) - [ABC News — Iran live updates: Trump says Iran gets a 'week off'](https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=134300648) - [State Funeral of Ali Khamenei — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_funeral_of_Ali_Khamenei) - [Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis) - [Hormuz Strait Monitor — Live Tracker](https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/) - [Straits.live — Strait of Hormuz Day 126](https://straits.live/) - [Hormuztracking.com — Live Traffic](https://hormuztracking.com/) - [CNBC — Oil tanker traffic jumps after US and Iran implement deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/iran-oil-tanker-traffic-strait-hormuz-gulf-vlcc.html) - [Argus Media — Hormuz tanker traffic unchanged after US-Iran deal](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2839545-hormuz-tanker-traffic-unchanged-after-us-iran-deal) - [IMF PortWatch — Strait of Hormuz](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cc317ba850e34c4dadbead6f7b336fb1) - [Al Jazeera — US-Iran Doha Talks Outcomes and What's Next](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/us-iran-talks-in-doha-what-were-the-outcomes-and-whats-next) - [The Well News — Wright Says US Will Proceed With SPR Drawdown](https://www.thewellnews.com/energy/wright-says-us-will-proceed-with-drawdown-from-strategic-petroleum-reserve/) - [Semafor — One of Trump's key oil market fixes is about to break](https://www.semafor.com/article/06/09/2026/one-of-trumps-key-oil-market-fixes-is-about-to-break) - [PGJ Online — Can SPR Handle Another Major Drawdown](https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/june/can-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-handle-another-major-drawdown) - [Turkish Minute — Iraq Turkey Move to Keep Oil Flowing Jul 4](https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/07/04/iraq-turkey-move-to-keep-oil-flowing-through-ceyhan-as-pipeline-deal-nears-expiration/) - [Türkiye Today — Interim Protocol Before New K-C Deal](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/iraq-turkiye-to-sign-interim-protocol-before-new-kirkuk-ceyhan-pipeline-deal-3223168) - [Discovery Alert — Iraq Oil Pipeline Agreement Turkey 2026](https://discoveryalert.com.au/iraq-oil-pipeline-agreement-turkey-hormuz-export-crisis/) - [TradingEconomics — Brent Crude Oil](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil) - [Fortune — Current price of oil July 2, 2026](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-07-02-2026/) - [Macrotrends — WTI Crude Oil Prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) - [Al Jazeera Jul 3 — Mapping Khamenei Funeral](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/mapping-irans-ali-khamenei-funeral-where-mourners-will-gather-each-day) - [Wikipedia — Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Ceyhan_Oil_Pipeline) - [UKMTO Recent Incidents](https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents) - [MARAD Bulletin 2026-006](https://www.maritime.dot.gov/msci/2026-006-red-sea-bab-el-mandeb-strait-gulf-aden-arabian-sea-and-somali-basin-houthi-attacks) - [Wikipedia — Houthi Attacks on Commercial Vessels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_vessels) - [Lloyd's List — No P&I Clubs Have Not Cancelled War Risk](https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156515/No-PI-clubs-have-not-cancelled-war-risk-cover) - [Lloyd's — Chubb Marine War Risk Consortium Hormuz](https://www.lloyds.com/insights/media-centre/press-releases/press-release-19062026) - [Polymarket — Hormuz Traffic Dec 31](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31) - [World Oil — India to Expand Strategic Oil Reserves After Iran War (Jul 2)](https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/7/2/india-to-expand-strategic-oil-reserves-after-iran-war-price-spike) - [Bloomberg — Tankers U-Turn in Hormuz Jul 4](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-04/tankers-u-turn-in-hormuz-with-some-taking-iran-route-instead) - [Bloomberg — Qatar Brings Empty LNG Ship Back](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-18/qatar-brings-empty-lng-ship-back-for-first-time-since-war-began) - [CBS — Trump edited possible US-Iran agreement](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-vance-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-deal-close/) - [Time — Iran Prepares for Week of Funeral Processions](https://time.com/article/2026/07/03/iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-funeral-mass-mourning/) - [Wikipedia — 2026 Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%93Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_ceasefire) - [Wikipedia — 2025-2026 Iran-US Negotiations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)