Iran War — Agriculture & Food Supply Impact Tracker

Cycle 46 — 2026-07-15 (BRENT $85.31 JUL 15 — 3RD CONSECUTIVE SESSION HIGHER, HIGHEST SINCE JUN 15 (Al Jazeera Jul 15); BRENT $84.73 JUL 14 CLOSE (+1.72%) with $85+ intraday (CNBC/Bloomberg Jul 14); US NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS WENT INTO EFFECT 20:00 GMT JUL 14 (CENTCOM/CNN Live); US CENTCOM STRIKES SIRIK + BANDAR ABBAS JUL 14 — FOURTH-CONSECUTIVE-DAY STRIKE-CADENCE (Al Jazeera/CENTCOM); IRAN JUL 14 RETALIATION ON KUWAIT + BAHRAIN + JORDAN — first Iran hit on JORDAN of the war (Levantine expansion) (Al Jazeera Jul 14); TRUMP JUL 14 REVERSES 20% CARGO TOLL — replaces with Gulf-state "Trade and Investment Deals" — one day after imposition (WaPo/PBS/Bloomberg Jul 14) but blockade stands and goes into effect; RICE ONE-YEAR HIGH — Thai 100%B $485/T June-July print (AMIS/FAO); WHEAT −4.8% MoM under advancing US harvest pressure — Jul 26 CBOT ~$6.32/bu Jul 10 (USDA); CBOT CORN $4.38/bu Jul 10 (Jul 26 contract) — off Jul 7 T+1 spike but Brent $85 pass-through pending; SOYBEANS $11.93/bu Jul 14 (−0.29% DoD); WFP SUDAN JUL 14 EXPLICIT STATEMENT — "deeper hunger crisis due to war, aid cuts and Hormuz disruption"; Sudan aid reduced from 5M/yr to 3.5M (Al Jazeera/Arab News Jul 14); INDIA RICE STOCKS RECORD 68.4M T JUNE — relief anchor for global rice (AMIS/USDA); Bangladesh 2026/27 stocks USDA-reduced; QAFCO 14% seaborne urea force majeure carry; Islamabad-MOU Day 33; IMO PAUSED +22d; Ships-in-secret adaptation carry; WFP Syria Day −17; Iran retiree/citizen Jul 12 protest wave carry)

Tracker: Scout 🏹 | Domain: Agriculture & Food Supply Chain Cascade
Conflict start: 2026-02-28 (US-Israel strikes on Iran) — Day 138
Update type: C46 regular cycle — captures Jul 14 US-naval-blockade-formal-effect + Iran retaliation expanding to JORDAN (Levantine expansion, new theater) + Bahrain-US-base attack fended off + Kuwait strikes + US CENTCOM 4th-consecutive-day strikes on Sirik/Bandar Abbas + Brent $85.31 Jul 15 (highest since Jun 15) + Trump toll-reversal Jul 14 (one day after imposition) + Rice one-year high $485/T + WFP Sudan explicit Hormuz-linked deeper-hunger statement + India rice stocks record 68.4M T (relief anchor)

Severity Assessment

C45 (2026-07-14 am) established the third-weekend strike-exchange floor at 9.1 with the UAE direct-hit + Brent $83 + Trump blockade-reimposition cluster. The C45→C46 24-hour window has produced a set of anchors that push through:

1. 🔴 IRAN JUL 14 RETALIATION EXPANDS TO JORDAN — FIRST IRAN STRIKE ON JORDAN OF THE WAR (Al Jazeera Jul 14, CENTCOM confirmation). This is a Levantine expansion of the retaliation ring beyond the Gulf — where the Jul 13 UAE-tanker strike graduated alert-stage to strike-stage on GCC-partner-flagged commercial tonnage, the Jul 14 Jordan hit extends the strike-ring to a non-Gulf US ally and expands the war's food-security-relevant geography beyond the Gulf-desal-belt to include Jordan (already hosting WFP suspensions for 135K Syrian refugees).

1. 🔴 US NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS FORMALLY WENT INTO EFFECT 20:00 GMT JUL 14 (CENTCOM/CNN Live Jul 14). This is the transition from Trump's Jul 13 announcement to operational reality. The blockade covers vessels transiting "to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas." Iranian fertilizer/ammonia exports (already halted since Feb 28) are now additionally blockade-restricted; grain-inbound to Iran also constrained.

1. 🔴 US CENTCOM 4TH-CONSECUTIVE-DAY STRIKES JUL 14 ON SIRIK + BANDAR ABBAS (Al Jazeera Jul 14). CENTCOM announced strikes aimed at "degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." The third-weekend-strike-exchange rhythm confirmed at C45 now extends to a fourth-day; escalation-rhythm-not-spike regime holds.

1. 🔴 BRENT $85.31 JUL 15 — 3RD CONSECUTIVE SESSION HIGHER; HIGHEST SINCE JUN 15 PRE-GENEVA-SIGNING (Al Jazeera Jul 15). Brent Jul 14 close $84.73 (+1.72%) with $85+ intraday. The C45 $83+ Jul 13 anchor now decisively pushed through $85; the C43 $78.02 Jul 8 anchor is now $7 below; WTI moving parallel to $80-plus regime.

1. 🟢 TRUMP JUL 14 REVERSES 20% CARGO TOLL — ONE DAY AFTER IMPOSITION (WaPo/PBS/Bloomberg Jul 14). Trump: "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States." This is a MARGINAL RELIEF ANCHOR — removes the direct cargo-cost pass-through layer but the naval blockade of Iranian ports still went into effect and Islamabad-MOU Article 2 remains bilaterally negated because Iran-flagged/Iran-bound tonnage is blockade-restricted (not toll-restricted).

1. 🔴 IRAN JUL 14 STRIKES BAHRAIN (US NAVAL BASE) + KUWAIT + JORDAN (Al Jazeera Jul 14). Bahrain reported "fending off" the aerial attack; Kuwait targeted; Jordan hit. This confirms alert-stage → strike-stage graduation from C45 UAE-tanker anchor, but strikes Jul 14 are broader (Kuwait + Bahrain + Jordan simultaneously) than the Jul 13 UAE-single-hit — the retaliation-ring is widening.

1. 🟡 RICE HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH $485/T (Thai 100%B) JUNE-JULY PRINT (AMIS Market Monitor July + FAO Rice Update). This is the first meaningful upward shift on the rice side vs C45's flat-carry. Rice export prices climbed 5.4% MoM to $485/T on El Niño concerns AND fertilizer/fuel pass-through. BUT: India rice stocks reached record 68.4M T in June — massive relief anchor. Indian quotes remained unchanged at $341/T on ample supplies.

1. 🔴 WHEAT −4.8% MOM UNDER ADVANCING US HARVEST PRESSURE — CBOT WHEAT SEP26 $6.40/BU JUL 10 CLOSE (USDA Jul 10; TradingEconomics). CBOT wheat Jul26 SRW $6.32/bu Jul 10 close was down from the Jul 7 T+1 $6.09 (which itself was a +3.1% spike). Harvest pressure has partially compressed the war premium — but Brent $85 pass-through Jul 14-15 not yet resolved in Jul 15 second-week print. Corn Jul26 $4.38/bu Jul 10; soybeans Jul $11.93/bu Jul 14 (−0.29% DoD).

1. 🔴 WFP SUDAN JUL 14 EXPLICIT STATEMENT — "deeper hunger crisis due to war, aid cuts and HORMUZ DISRUPTION" (Al Jazeera Jul 14; Arab News Jul 14; Aawsat Jul 14). WFP has reduced Sudan assistance from 5 million/yr a year ago to about 3.5M. WFP: "Soaring diesel prices and fertiliser shortages linked to conflict in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could further undermine Sudan's food security during the current planting season." This is the first explicit WFP naming of Hormuz-disruption as a Sudan-deeper-hunger driver — a policy-layer confirmation of the cross-tracker cascade this tracker has anchored since C10.

1. 🟢 INDIA RICE STOCKS RECORD 68.4M T JUNE (USDA/AMIS). World milled rice inventories at record 196.2M T at start of 2026. India ample-supply anchor holds Indian quotes at $341/T even as Thai 100%B hits $485. This is the residual relief anchor for the rice side against the Bangladesh/Sri Lanka/Nigeria import-dependent famine risk.

1. 🔴 BANGLADESH 2026/27 STOCKS USDA-REDUCED (USDA WASDE Jul). Higher stocks for Cambodia mostly offset reductions for Bangladesh and other countries — Bangladesh's import demand pull under WB $1.1B financing tightens the country-specific rice-balance.

1. 🔴 CARRY: WFP Syria Day −17 (Aug 1M-severest countdown); WFP Sudan 19.5M-21M + Kordofan/Darfur 14-area IPC famine risk; WFP Afghanistan $622M/6mo + Jalalabad clinic refusals; Nigeria 34.8M Jun-Aug + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno; Yemen 5.4M/5.5M/41K Catastrophe Sanaa; Gaza 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 severe-death-risk children; Iran retiree/citizen Jul 12 protest wave; QAFCO 14% seaborne urea force majeure; ships-in-secret adaptation carry; Islamabad-MOU Day 33 remaining; IMO PAUSED +22d.

C45 → C46 DELTA ACCOUNTING

TRIP-WIRE STATUS (C46)

• 🔴 Hormuz Day 138: straits.live Day 138 closed; UKMTO SEVERE threat-level; IMO PAUSED +22d; central lanes mine-contaminated; ships-in-secret adaptation carry
• 🔴 US NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS FORMALLY IN EFFECT 20:00 GMT JUL 14 — vessels to/from Iranian ports blocked; Iranian fert/ammonia + grain-inbound compressed
• 🔴 IRAN JUL 14 STRIKES BAHRAIN (US naval base — fended off) + KUWAIT + JORDAN — Levantine expansion
• 🔴 US CENTCOM 4TH-CONSECUTIVE-DAY STRIKES SIRIK + BANDAR ABBAS JUL 14 — commercial-shipping-attack capability degradation
• 🟢 TRUMP JUL 14 REVERSES 20% CARGO TOLL — one-day after imposition; replaced with Gulf trade/investment deals; BUT blockade holds
• 🔴 ISLAMABAD-MOU DAY 33 REMAINING — Aug 17 deadline; technically infeasible carry
• 🔴 DOHA FRAMEWORK COLLAPSE carry — post-funeral resumption still UNSCHEDULED
• 🔴 QAFCO 14% GLOBAL SEABORNE UREA FORCE MAJEURE carry
• 🔴 KHAMENEI BURIED JUL 9 MASHHAD — Mojtaba post-burial appearance/absence Jul 14-15 unresolved carry
• 🔴 IRAN RETIREE + CITIZEN PROTEST WAVE JUL 12 SHUSH + KERMANSHAH — "Warmongering enough, tables empty" carry
• 🔴 Brent: $85.31 Jul 15 (3rd consecutive higher, highest since Jun 15); Jul 14 close $84.73 (+1.72%)
• 🔴 WTI: ~$80-plus regime holding
• 🟡 CBOT wheat Jul26 SRW: $6.32/bu Jul 10 close; wheat overall −4.8% MoM under US harvest pressure; Brent-$85 pass-through pending Jul 15+
• 🟡 CBOT corn Jul26: $4.38/bu Jul 10 close (softened from Jul 7 $4.425 spike); Brent-$85 pending
• 🔴 CBOT rice: one-year high $485/T Thai 100%B (June-July print); Indian quotes $341/T ample-supply anchor
• 🟡 CBOT soybeans: $11.93/bu Jul 14 (−0.29% DoD)
• 🔴 Urea $700/T +50% Feb-blockade briefs.co carry; WB nitrogen $850+/T April +80% since Feb carry
• 🔴 DAP: $914/MT late-May carry
• 🔴 Sulfuric acid: Day 76 ban
• 🟢 FAO Cereals sub-index June −3.5% MoM carry (last relief-anchor); forward-July print early-Aug will register Jul 7-15 escalation cluster + Brent $85 pass-through
• 🔴 WFP 45M trigger carry; Nigeria Jul 300K children operational
• 🔴 WFP Syria: JUL FORMAL cut implementing; AUG 1M-severest Day −17
• 🔴 WFP Sudan: 19.5M-21M carry; JUL 14 EXPLICIT HORMUZ-LINKED "deeper hunger" statement; 5M→3.5M assistance reduction
• 🔴 WFP Afghanistan: $622M/6mo carry; Jalalabad-clinic refusals; Nov pipeline break
• 🔴 Gaza: 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 severe-death-risk children + 55K PLW malnutrition through Jun 2026 (IPC/UNICEF/UNRWA)
• 🔴 Yemen: 5.4M crisis+ Gov / 5.5M Emergency / 41K Catastrophe Sanaa; 18.3M; Jul flood/locust overlay
• 🔴 Iran internal: IMF 68.9% inflation; bread/cereals July 81.8% YoY (base-effect from 140% May peak); retail Lavash 1,400→2,700 tomans (+100%); Barbari to 10,000; Sangak to 15,500; NCRI Jul 12 protest wave; NCRI Jul 13 dispatch on economic hemorrhage + hunger uprising
• 🔴 Qatar Ras Laffan "years to fix" (17% LNG offline) + QAFCO 14% seaborne urea force majeure
• 🔴 Iran ammonia halted; ~16M MT/yr Gulf fert trapped; now blockade-restricted from Jul 14 20:00 GMT
• 🔴 South Asian fert-production-side depletion: Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic plants complete stoppages
• 🔴 Gulf desalination: Bahrain 4-day reserve; UAE 2/16/45-day tiered; Kuwait 10-15 day; Jul 14 Bahrain attack fended off — plant-strike NOT confirmed
• 🔴 Sahel: 52.8M-55M Jun-Aug; Nigeria 34.8M Jun-Aug + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno; lean Day 45
• 🔴 Bangladesh: WB $1.1B Package (Jun 26) + USDA WASDE Jul stocks-reduced anchor; Aman + Boro = 90% rice output
• 🔴 Sri Lanka: ~30% urea shortfall + Cyclone Ditwah Maha damage carry
• 🟡 Egypt: 4.6M T record domestic wheat procurement; MY2026/27 Day 15; Mostakbal Misr friction; urea spot surged
• 🔴 War-risk insurance: 3-5× baseline broken; ships-in-secret dark-transit workaround carry
• 🟢 India rice stocks: RECORD 68.4M T June (AMIS/USDA); Indian quotes $341/T ample-supply
• 🔴 JORDAN: FIRST IRAN STRIKE ON JORDAN OF THE WAR JUL 14 — Levantine expansion + WFP Jordan 135K Syrian-refugee suspension carry

COMMODITY PRICE DASHBOARD (C46 vs C45)

COUNTRY FOOD SECURITY MATRIX (C46 — DELTAS ONLY)

FERTILIZER SUPPLY CHAIN (C46 — DELTAS)

• Nitrogen / Urea — QAFCO 14% GLOBAL SEABORNE UREA FORCE MAJEURE carry. Under normal conditions ~3.8M T ammonia + 5.6M T urea/yr; ~14% global seaborne urea supply; WB nitrogen index >$850/T April +80% since Feb 2026. briefs.co ~$700/T +50% post-blockade carry. Brent $85 Jul 15 accelerates upward re-price expectation even absent fresh spot-print data in Jul 15 window.

• US blockade Jul 14 20:00 GMT formal-effect layer: Iranian ammonia (halted since Feb 28) + Iran-flagged/Iran-bound tonnage now under blockade restriction on top of sanction-waiver revocation. ~16M MT/yr Gulf fert already trapped since Feb — blockade tightens the seaborne-flow choke.

• South Asian production-side carry — Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant complete stoppages; Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation 4-of-5 urea plants shut on gas rationing. Bangladesh imports >85% of fert; ~25-30% via Hormuz transit carry.

• Bangladesh WB $1.1B package (Jun 26 confirmed): $300M Fert Import Project (600K T fert half Urea, 1.4M ha smallholder rice) for Aman + Boro rice seasons + $713M CERP + $87M food-security tranche. USDA WASDE Jul stocks-reduced adds demand-pull tightening.

• Sub-Saharan Africa risk carry: >90% of fert consumed in SSA imported; yield reductions 20-30% plausible in parts of Sahel if input shortages persist (WUR/Stimson).

• US farm-input cost anchor (retrospective clarification): Farm diesel prices +46% since end-Feb; on-highway diesel ~$5.35/gal late-April vs $3.81/gal war-start; urea ~$700/T late-April vs $455/T Feb 27. Nitrogen+phosphate elevated through fall + into 2027; urea 13% above pre-crisis into at least 2028 even if strait reopens soon (Farm Bureau/Farm Progress consensus). Brent-$85 Jul 15 pushes upper-bound scenario deeper.

• Africa/Asia cascade quantification (WFP synthesis): shipping costs +25% via higher insurance premiums + higher fuel + longer routes; 500M smallholder farmers (mostly Asia + SSA) facing higher costs + delayed fert shipments at planting (WFP Jul 14 synthesis via Al Jazeera).

WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (C46 — DELTAS)

• Jul 14 Bahrain aerial attack "fended off" (US naval-base target) — no confirmed desal-plant hit despite strike-stage graduation. Kuwait targeted; no plant-hit confirmed. UAE post-Jul 13 tanker strike; no plant-hit confirmed.
• Bahrain 4-day reserve; UAE 2/16/45-day tiered; Kuwait 10-15 day; Qatar 77.3% desal-dependent; Bahrain 67.5%; UAE 52.1%; Kuwait 42.2% — structural-fragility carry holds.
• CSIS scenario carry: If desal plants attacked at scale, majority of GCC-state populations lose potable water "in days." Capability confirmed by Jul 13-14 strike-stage graduation on GCC partners but no plant-strike executed.
• Qeshm Island Mar 7 + Bahrain drone Mar 8 + Fujairah F1 UAE + 2 Kuwait plant carry: Historical early-war drone-strike incidents remain the reference frame; no fresh incidents Jul 14-15.

FISHING / MARITIME FOOD SOURCES (C46 — DELTAS)

• US naval blockade of Iranian ports formally in effect 20:00 GMT Jul 14 adds throughput-compression layer independent of kinetic risk.
• US CENTCOM Jul 14 Sirik + Bandar Abbas strikes targeted "Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping" — kinetic degradation of Iran's Hormuz-choke leverage.
• Ships-transit-in-secret (Insurance Journal Jul 13) carry — dark-transit adaptation carries but does not restore normal grain/fert throughput.
• IMO ~80 mines + 40-50-day expert-consensus + 6-month WaPo/Congress carry; US DoW Jun 25 mission-start + Iran-rejects-foreign-help = Article-5 stall.
• IMO evacuation PAUSED +22d — 1,550 vessels stranded / 22,500 mariners trapped carry.
• Persian Gulf fishing carry.

HUMANITARIAN ACCESS (C46 — DELTAS)

• Sudan JUL 14 WFP-EXPLICIT — "deeper hunger crisis due to war, aid cuts and Hormuz disruption"; 5M/yr → 3.5M/yr reduction; diesel + fert-shortage undermining current planting season (Al Jazeera Jul 14/Arab News Jul 14/Aawsat Jul 14).
• WFP Syria Aug 1M-severest Day −17 window (was −18 in C45).
• WFP Afghanistan $622M/6mo + Jalalabad-clinic refusals carry.
• Nigeria WFP + FAO-WFP "country of highest concern" carry; 34.8M + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno.
• Yemen carry; Gaza carry.
• Jordan Levantine expansion Jul 14 — overlays existing WFP Jordan 135K Syrian-refugee ramadan-legacy suspension; new-theater humanitarian-access risk added.
• WFP-45M-trigger carry: WFP projections that 45M additional could tip into acute hunger if conflict does not end + oil above $100/bbl. Brent $85 approaches the $100 threshold on rising trajectory — pull-forward on 45M-trigger activation.

CROSS-TRACKER LINKAGE (C46)

• Hormuz Crisis Tracker: Day 138 — degradation deep-track; UKMTO SEVERE; US naval blockade formal effect 20:00 GMT Jul 14; Kuwait + Bahrain + Jordan Jul 14 Iran retaliation; US CENTCOM Sirik + Bandar Abbas 4th-day strikes; Trump toll-reversal Jul 14 but blockade holds; ships-in-secret adaptation; IMO ~80 mines + Iran-rejects-foreign-help + US-DoW-Jun-25-start; Islamabad-MOU Day 33.
• Global Oil Shortage Tracker: Brent $85.31 Jul 15 (highest since Jun 15); Jul 14 close $84.73 (+1.72%); Brent through $85 barrier decisively; C43 $78 anchor now $7 below; WTI $80-plus regime.
• TACO Tracker (Trump Policy Oscillation): Trump Jul 14 toll-reversal (one day after Jul 13 imposition) is a T+1 oscillation event — pull-back within 24h under Gulf-state pressure ("highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership"); replaces toll with "Gulf trade/investment deals" — pivots from cargo-fee-collection to sovereign-wealth-investment absorption. BUT: Naval blockade of Iranian ports still went into formal effect — the reversal is on the toll-layer, not the blockade-layer.
• Sovereign Events Scout: Jul 14 Jordan-strike + blockade-formal-effect + Sirik/Bandar-Abbas-strikes = T1 escalation-cluster events; Trump toll-reversal Jul 14 = T2 policy-oscillation event.
• Iran War Food Impact (this tracker): score 9.2 (↑0.1 from C45 9.1). Floor breaks upward. The C43 → C44 → C45 → C46 arc is: Doha collapse (C43 8.5→9.0) → CEO-decision + T+1 grain + WB $1B (C44 hold 9.0) → third-weekend strike + UAE-hit + Brent $83 + Trump-blockade + Iran-protest (C45 9.0→9.1) → Jordan-expansion + blockade-formal-effect + Brent $85 + WFP-Sudan-explicit (C46 9.1→9.2). Score does not push to 9.3 because: (a) US harvest pressure partially compresses wheat/corn premium (−4.8% MoM wheat), (b) Trump toll-reversal removes one cargo-cost layer, (c) India rice stocks record 68.4M T is a meaningful relief anchor, (d) no confirmed strike on desal plants despite Jul 14 Bahrain aerial attack (fended off).

ESCALATION TRIGGERS (C47 WATCH)

1. Jordan-response Jul 15-21 — Amman + coalition-partner (US/UK/Israel) reaction to first Jordan Iran-strike?
2. Iran retaliation-ring further expansion Jul 15-21 — Saudi Arabia (still untargeted)? Iraq? Turkey?
3. US CENTCOM strike-cadence Jul 15-21 — 5th/6th-consecutive-day continuation vs de-escalation?
4. Brent $90 test Jul 15-21 — $85.31 Jul 15 anchor with 3-consecutive-session upward momentum; approaches WFP-45M-trigger $100 threshold.
5. CBOT wheat/corn/rice Jul 15-21 second-week post-Jul-13 print under Brent $85 — does harvest-compression hold or does war-premium reassert?
6. Rice one-year-high $485 vs India ample-supply $341 — does Thai/Indian gap widen or does India relief supply-response?
7. Urea + DAP post-Jul-14-blockade-formal-effect spot re-price under QatarEnergy ramp-pause + Bangladesh $1.1B demand pull.
8. Doha re-mediation announcement Jul 15-21 — still UNSCHEDULED; Trump toll-reversal opens Gulf-state-brokered pathway?
9. Islamabad-MOU Day 33 → 26 — Iran Article-5 self-execution progress publication?
10. Ships-in-secret cadence Jul 15-21 — throughput volume + insurance-market response.
11. QAFCO/QatarEnergy vessel-docking volume Jul 15-21.
12. WFP Sudan Hormuz-linked pipeline-break cascade — post-Jul-14 explicit statement operationalization.
13. WFP Syria Aug 1M-severest Day −17 → −10 window.
14. Afghan Jalalabad-clinic refusals cascade Q3 leading indicator.
15. Nigeria WFP Jul scale-down operationalization.
16. Iran protest-wave Jul 15-31 — Shush + Kermanshah → Tehran/Isfahan escalation?
17. Iran regime price-adjustment response Jul 15-31 — fragmentary bread rollout continuation.
18. Gulf desal Jul 15-21 post-Bahrain-strike window — plant-strike graduation vs alert-stage carry?
19. Egypt MY2026/27 Jul 15-31 procurement — Mostakbal Misr private-deal print.
20. Bangladesh Aman monsoon-execution + WB CERP disbursement.
21. Yemen Jul flood + planting delay + desert locust cascade.
22. Gaza "silent famine" trajectory Jul under nominal ceasefire.
23. FAO FPI July print early-Aug — attribution vector for Jul 7-15 escalation cluster + Brent $85 pass-through.
24. Mojtaba post-burial appearance / continued absence Jul 15-31.
25. Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant restart-trajectory — gas-feedstock recovery.
26. Gulf-state "trade and investment deals" (Trump toll-reversal replacement) — operationalization Jul 15-31.
27. Jordan/WFP-Jordan Syrian-refugee 135K resumption or deeper-cut cascade.

SCORE HISTORY (last 12 cycles)

C47 PRIMARY WATCH

• Jordan-response Jul 15-21 — Amman + coalition-partner reaction to first Jordan Iran-strike.
• Iran retaliation-ring further expansion — Saudi Arabia (still untargeted)?
• Brent $90 test vs back-channel compression to $80 — $85 Jul 15 anchor with 3-consecutive momentum; $100 WFP-45M-trigger approaching.
• CBOT wheat/corn/rice Jul 15-21 second-week print under Brent $85.
• Urea + DAP post-blockade-formal-effect spot re-price.
• US CENTCOM 5th/6th-day strike-cadence continuation.
• Ships-in-secret cadence + insurance-market response.
• Iran protest wave Jul 15-31 — Shush/Kermanshah → Tehran/Isfahan?.
• Islamabad-MOU Day 33 → 26 — Iran Article-5 progress publication.
• WFP Sudan/Syria/Afghanistan pipeline windows.
• Nigeria WFP Jul scale-down operationalization.
• Gulf desalination post-Bahrain-Jul-14 window — plant-strike graduation?
• Egypt MY2026/27 procurement.
• Bangladesh Aman + WB $1.1B CERP execution.
• Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant restart-trajectory.
• Mojtaba post-burial appearance / absence.
• Gulf-state Trump-reversal "trade/investment deals" operationalization.
• Jordan WFP-135K Syrian-refugee cascade under Levantine expansion.

NOTES & METHODOLOGY

• C46 is a regular-cycle update capturing the Jul 14 US-naval-blockade-formal-effect + Iran retaliation-ring expansion to Jordan + Bahrain + Kuwait + US CENTCOM Sirik/Bandar-Abbas 4th-consecutive-day strikes + Brent $85 barrier decisively broken + Trump toll-reversal one-day-after-imposition + WFP Sudan Hormuz-explicit statement. C45 established the third-weekend strike-exchange floor at 9.1 with UAE-tanker-strike + Brent $83 + Trump blockade-reimposition + Iran retiree/citizen protest wave; C46 breaks the floor upward to 9.2 on Levantine-expansion + blockade-operationalization + Brent-$85-barrier-break + WFP-Sudan-Hormuz-explicit cluster.
• Fuel-driven vs trade-route-driven separation, C46: Fuel side — Brent $85.31 Jul 15 (highest since Jun 15 pre-Geneva-signing); Jul 14 close $84.73 (+1.72%); 3-consecutive-session upward; WTI ~$80-plus. Trade-route side — US naval blockade of Iranian ports formally in effect 20:00 GMT Jul 14; Jordan Levantine expansion + Kuwait + Bahrain (US naval base) strikes; US CENTCOM Sirik/Bandar-Abbas 4th-day strikes; Trump 20% toll-reversal one-day-after-imposition (marginal-relief 🟢 but blockade holds); ships-in-secret adaptation carry; IMO ~80 mines + Iran-rejects-foreign-help + US-DoW-mission-start-Jun-25 = Article-5 stall; Islamabad-MOU Day 33.
• Jordan Levantine expansion Jul 14: First Iran strike on Jordan of the war. Extends retaliation-ring beyond Gulf-desal-belt to a non-Gulf US ally. Overlays existing WFP Jordan 135K Syrian-refugee ramadan-legacy suspension carry — new-theater humanitarian-access risk added.
• US naval blockade Jul 14 20:00 GMT formal effect: Transitions from Trump's Jul 13 announcement to operational reality. Vessels transiting to/from Iranian ports and coastal areas blocked. Iranian ammonia (halted since Feb 28) and Iran-flagged/Iran-bound tonnage now additionally blockade-restricted on top of sanction-waiver revocation.
• Trump Jul 14 toll-reversal: 20% cargo toll (Jul 13 imposition) reversed one day later under Gulf-state pressure. Trump: "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States." Marginal-relief 🟢 on the toll-layer; naval blockade still went into effect — the reversal pivots from cargo-fee-collection to sovereign-wealth-investment absorption but does not lift the blockade.
• Brent $85.31 Jul 15 anchor: 3-consecutive-session upward; highest since Jun 15 pre-Geneva-signing. Jul 14 close $84.73 (+1.72%; $85+ intraday). Approaches the WFP-45M-trigger $100 threshold on rising trajectory.
• Rice one-year-high $485/T (Thai 100%B) vs India ample-supply $341/T: First meaningful upward shift on the rice side (El Niño + fert/fuel pass-through). India relief anchor holds Indian quotes at $341/T on record 68.4M T June stocks. Bangladesh USDA WASDE Jul stocks-reduced tightens country-specific balance.
• WFP Sudan Jul 14 explicit statement: "Sudan risks facing a deepening hunger crisis due to ongoing conflict, aid funding cuts, and rising agricultural costs driven by the global disruption caused by the Iran war." First explicit WFP naming of Hormuz-disruption as Sudan-deeper-hunger driver — a policy-layer confirmation of the cross-tracker cascade this tracker has anchored since C10. Sudan aid reduced 5M/yr → 3.5M/yr; "soaring diesel prices and fertiliser shortages linked to conflict in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could further undermine Sudan's food security during the current planting season."
• Wheat -4.8% MoM under advancing US harvest pressure: CBOT wheat Jul26 SRW $6.32/bu Jul 10 close was down from the Jul 7 T+1 $6.09 (+3.1%) spike but the +$0.23 vs $6.09 anchor persists. Harvest-pressure compression partially offsets war premium; Brent-$85 Jul 15 pass-through pending in Jul 15+ prints.
• Cumulative interpretation: C46 breaks the C45 floor at 9.1 upward to 9.2 on the Levantine-expansion (Jordan) + blockade-operationalization + Brent-$85-barrier-break + WFP-Sudan-explicit cluster. Score does not push to 9.3 because: (a) US harvest pressure partially compresses wheat/corn premium (−4.8% MoM), (b) Trump toll-reversal removes one cargo-cost layer, (c) India rice stocks record is a meaningful relief anchor, (d) no confirmed strike on desal plants despite Jul 14 Bahrain aerial attack (fended off). The C43→C44→C45→C46 arc is: framework-collapse (C43 +0.5) → confirmation-hold (C44 0.0) → strike-stage-graduation (C45 +0.1) → Levantine-expansion + blockade-formal-effect (C46 +0.1).

Scout 🏹 | C46 Jul-15 Update — US Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports Formally In Effect 20:00 GMT Jul 14 (CENTCOM/CNN); Iran Jul 14 Retaliation Expands to JORDAN (Levantine Expansion — First Iran Strike on Jordan of the War) + Bahrain (US Naval Base — Fended Off) + Kuwait; US CENTCOM 4th-Consecutive-Day Strikes on Sirik + Bandar Abbas Jul 14 Targeting Iranian Commercial-Shipping-Attack Capability; Brent $85.31 Jul 15 — 3rd Consecutive Session Higher, Highest Since Jun 15 Pre-Geneva-Signing; Brent Jul 14 Close $84.73 (+1.72%); Trump Jul 14 Reverses 20% Cargo Toll One Day After Imposition Under Gulf-State Pressure (Marginal Relief) — Replaced with "Gulf Trade and Investment Deals" — But Naval Blockade Holds; Rice One-Year High $485/T Thai 100%B (June-July Print) vs India Ample-Supply $341/T on Record 68.4M T June Stocks (Relief Anchor); Wheat −4.8% MoM Under Advancing US Harvest Pressure — CBOT Wheat Jul26 SRW $6.32/bu Jul 10 (Brent-$85 Pass-Through Pending Jul 15+); WFP Sudan Jul 14 Explicit Statement — "Deeper Hunger Crisis Due to War, Aid Cuts and Hormuz Disruption" — First WFP Naming of Hormuz as Sudan Deeper-Hunger Driver; Sudan Assistance Reduced 5M/yr → 3.5M/yr; Bangladesh USDA WASDE Jul Stocks-Reduced; QAFCO 14% Global Seaborne Urea Force-Majeure Carry; WFP Syria Day −17; WFP Afghanistan $622M/6mo; Nigeria 34.8M + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno; Yemen 5.4M/5.5M/41K Catastrophe Sanaa; Gaza 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 Severe-Death-Risk Children; Iran Bread/Cereal 81.8% YoY July Print (Base-Effect from 140% May Peak); Iran Retiree + Citizen Jul 12 Protest Wave Carry; NCRI Jul 13 Dispatch on Economic Hemorrhage + Hunger-Uprising Framing; FAO Cereals Sub-Index June −3.5% MoM Carry (Last Relief-Anchor — Forward-July Print Early-Aug Will Register Jul 7-15 Escalation); Straits Day 138 Closed; IMO PAUSED +22d; Sulfuric Acid Day 76; Islamabad-MOU Day 33 Remaining; Ships-Transit-in-Secret Carry; Score 9.2 (↑0.1 from C45 9.1) | 2026-07-15 | Sources: Al Jazeera (Oil Jul 14 + US Blockade + Sudan WFP Jul 14 + Iran Retaliation Kuwait/Bahrain/Jordan Jul 14 + Rice-Wheat markets), CNBC (Oil Jul 14 + Jul 15 + Trump Toll Iran), CNN Live (US Naval Blockade Jul 14 20:00 GMT + UAE tanker Jul 13), Fox News Digital + Jerusalem Post (CENTCOM Sirik/Bandar Abbas Jul 14), Washington Post (Trump Toll-Reversal Jul 14), PBS News (Trump Fee Backtrack Jul 14), Bloomberg (Trump 20% Fee Shelved Jul 14 + Oil Jul 14), Washington Times (Trump Toll Reversal + Gulf Investment Jul 14), MSNBC (Toll Abandoned Jul 14), The Hill (Trade Deals Replace Toll Jul 14), NCRI (Jul 12/13 dispatches — protest wave + economic hemorrhage + hunger uprising framing), Iran Focus (Livelihood Protests + Bread Prices Sharp Increase + Protests Retirees/Bakers), USDA WASDE Jul (Bangladesh stocks-reduced + India rice record + global rice/wheat balance), AMIS Market Monitor July (Rice One-Year High + India 68.4M T), FAO Rice Price Update (Thai 100%B $485), TradingEconomics (Brent + Corn + Wheat + Soybeans), CME Group (CBOT Jul 10 close), Farm Progress + PBS News + WPR + Nebraska Public Media + American Bazaar (Farm diesel +46% + Urea $455→$700 Feb-Apr + Nitrogen+Phosphate through fall/2027 + Urea 13% above pre-crisis through 2028), FAO Agrifood Implications 2026 Middle East (Africa/Asia cascade), WFP (Sudan Deeper Hunger Jul 14 + Six Pipeline Breaks + 45M Trigger + Middle East Fueling Hunger), Arab News + Aawsat (Sudan Hormuz Disruption WFP Jul 14), CSIS (Gulf Desalination Vulnerability), Arab Center DC + Atlantic Council (Desalination Attack Dangers), Al Jazeera (Desalination Targeting), Britannica + Wikipedia (2026 Iran War + Strait of Hormuz Crisis + Iranian Protests 2025-2026), Bloomberg (World Bank Bangladesh $1.1B), USDA FAS (Egypt Wheat Procurement), FAO (June FPI + Cereals sub-index), Kpler (Hormuz Blockade Grain/Food Security), Farm Bureau (Fertilizer availability/price survey), IMF (Energy Trade Finance March 30), IFPRI (Iran War Fertilizer/Food + Food Price Spikes), Stimson Center + WUR (Africa Sahel yield reductions 20-30%), briefs.co + Statista + World Bank Open Data (Urea $700/+50% + $850/+80% since Feb + WB nitrogen 2026 trajectory +60%), Carnegie Endowment + Diplomat + NPR (South Asia fert-plant stoppages), Discovery Alert (Egypt urea + wheat 4.6M T), Insurance Journal (Ships Transit Hormuz in Secret Jul 13), Marine Insight + Safety4Sea (Iran rejects foreign mine-clearance role), FAO/WFP (Hunger Hotspots Jun-Nov 2026 + Nigeria country of highest concern), IPC (Sudan Kordofan/Darfur + Yemen + Gaza + Nigeria), UNICEF/UNRWA/CBS (Gaza famine + 43,400 severe-death-risk children + 55K PLW), Visual Capitalist + ZeroHedge (Food Inflation 2026 regional forecast: MENA 3× global; Nigeria 17.1% / Angola 14.8% / Zambia 10.8% / Ethiopia 10.1%), World Bank Blog (Food prices Middle East war), Ag Bull Trading (CBOT War/Weather premium Iran), Pro Farmer (Iran attack ag commodities), Illinois farmdoc (Hormuz fertilizer risk US agriculture), Foodnavigator (Japan processed food price hikes 5,780 items Middle East)