Iran War — Agriculture & Food Supply Impact Tracker

Cycle 45 — 2026-07-14 (BRENT $83+ JUL 13 CLOSE — WTI ~$78 — 9.4% MONDAY RALLY (Bloomberg/Fortune Jul 13); UAE TANKERS HIT BY IRANIAN MISSILES IN OMANI TERRITORIAL WATERS JUL 13 — 1 CREW KILLED (CNN Live/UAE statement); TRUMP REIMPOSES BLOCKADE ON IRANIAN SHIPS + DEMANDS PAYMENT FOR ALL CARGO THROUGH STRAIT (Bloomberg Jul 13); THIRD WEEKEND STRIKE EXCHANGE JUL 11-13 — US 3RD-NIGHT STRIKES on Iranian coastal-surveillance/drone/missile capabilities (NPR/US CENTCOM); SHIPS TRANSIT HORMUZ IN SECRET (Insurance Journal Jul 13); BANGLADESH WORLD BANK PACKAGE CONFIRMED AS $1.1B (not $1B) — $713M CERP CASH TRANSFERS + $300M FERTILIZER + $87M FOOD SEC (World Bank Jun 26 press release); IRAN BREAD/CEREAL 81.8% YoY JULY PRINT — down from 140% May peak, but Lavash 1,400→2,700 tomans / Barbari to 10,000 tomans / Sangak to 15,500 tomans reconfirmed (NCRI Jul 12); IRAN RETIREE + CITIZEN PROTESTS JUL 12 SHUSH + KERMANSHAH IN >50°C — "Warmongering enough, our tables empty" (NCRI Jul 12); QAFCO 14% GLOBAL SEABORNE UREA UNDER FORCE MAJEURE carry — mid-June "restart-within-a-month" guidance now definitively contradicted by CEO Al-Kaabi Jul 9 pause (Oil&Gas Middle East + Bloomberg); WFP Sudan 19.5M + Syria Day −18 + Afghanistan $622M/6mo + Nigeria 34.8M + Yemen 18.3M + Sahel Day 44 carry; Straits Day 137; IMO PAUSED +21d; Islamabad-MOU Day 34 remaining; War-risk insurance 3-5× baseline path definitively broken; Ships-in-secret-transit = insurance/darkness workaround emerging)

Tracker: Scout 🏹 | Domain: Agriculture & Food Supply Chain Cascade
Conflict start: 2026-02-28 (US-Israel strikes on Iran) — Day 137
Update type: C45 regular cycle — captures Jul 11-13 third-weekend strike exchange + UAE-tanker direct hit (Iran's first hit on UAE-flagged tonnage) + Brent $83 close + Trump-blockade-reimposition + ships-transit-in-secret workaround + Bangladesh WB $1.1B (upward-revised from $1B) + Iran retiree protest wave + July Iran bread/cereal 81.8% YoY print

Severity Assessment

C44 (2026-07-10 pm) held the reversal floor at 9.0. Four days on, the C44-C45 window has produced a set of anchors that push through:

1. 🔴 UAE TANKERS DIRECTLY HIT BY IRANIAN MISSILES JUL 13 IN OMANI TERRITORIAL WATERS — 1 CREW MEMBER KILLED (CNN Live/UAE statement). This is the first Iran-on-UAE-flagged-tonnage direct hit of the war and the first fatality in the Jul 7-13 escalation cluster. It converts the Jul 9 Bahrain/Kuwait siren-stage into a strike-stage on ally-state commercial-flagged tonnage — Iran retaliating not just against US Navy but against US Gulf partners' seaborne assets.

1. 🔴 THIRD-WEEKEND STRIKE EXCHANGE JUL 11-13. US CENTCOM launched a third consecutive night of strikes targeting Iranian coastal-surveillance systems + drone/missile capabilities. Iran responded by targeting US allies (UAE, and continuing Bahrain/Kuwait signal). NPR frames this as the third weekend in a row of exchanges — a rhythm-not-a-spike escalation that the C43 → C44 → C45 arc now confirms as the operative regime.

1. 🔴 BRENT $83+ JUL 13 CLOSE — 9.4% MONDAY RALLY (Bloomberg/Fortune Jul 13). WTI near $78. This is the highest Brent close since Jun 22 pre-Geneva-signing — the C43 $78.02 Jul 8 close is now surpassed decisively; the C44 $77 partial-retrace is now decisively broken upward. The C41-C42 "Doha-pivot compression to ~$72" carry is now +$11 broken.

1. 🔴 TRUMP REIMPOSES BLOCKADE ON IRANIAN SHIPS + DEMANDS PAYMENT FOR CARGO (Bloomberg Jul 13). Trump said he would reimpose a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demand payment for all other cargo moving through the waterway. This is a US-side production-decision-layer confirmation of the C43 Doha-framework-collapse — the sanction-waiver revocation is now upgraded to explicit blockade + toll. Islamabad-MOU Article 2 (toll-free 60-day passage) is now bilaterally negated.

1. 🟡 SHIPS TRANSIT HORMUZ IN SECRET (Insurance Journal Jul 13). Transponder-off/dark-transit workaround is emerging as insurance and darkness-cover become the operational regime. This does NOT restore normal grain/fert throughput but does mark a marginal-relief adaptation vector — vessels are moving under war-risk-insurance-workaround conditions rather than by re-price.

1. 🟢 IRAN BREAD/CEREAL 81.8% YoY JULY OFFICIAL PRINT — down from 140% May peak. BUT: the C44-confirmed Jun 23 official doubling (Lavash 14K→27K rials; Barbari 53K→100K; Taftoon 23K→45K; Sangak 74K→155K) is confirmed at the retail level with NCRI Jul 12 dispatch adding: Tehran Lavash 1,400→2,700 tomans (100% surge); Barbari to 10,000 tomans (+90%); Sangak to 15,500 tomans. YoY-print softens on base-effect + fragmented rollout, but street-level shock is still fresh.

1. 🔴 IRAN RETIREE + CITIZEN PROTESTS JUL 12 SHUSH + KERMANSHAH IN >50°C — "Warmongering is enough, our tables are empty!" / "Inflation and high prices, no to war and destruction!" (NCRI Jul 12). First observed protest-wave that explicitly binds war-anti-message to empty-table-message — the C43-C44 forced-price-hike-as-adjustment-marker now generates a proto-hunger-uprising signal. Iran Focus and Iran News Update carry "regime trapped between economic plunder and fear of a hunger uprising."

1. 🔴 BANGLADESH WB PACKAGE UPWARD-REVISED TO $1.1B (World Bank Jun 26 press release; The Daily Star Jun 27). Composition: $300M Fertilizer Import Project (600K T fert Jul 2026-Apr 2027 rice seasons) + $713M Contingent Emergency Response (CERP) cash transfers + livelihood assistance for HH/MSMEs + additional $87M food-security-tranche. Aman + Boro seasons together account for ~90% of Bangladesh rice output; the WB package explicitly targets both.

1. 🔴 QAFCO 14% GLOBAL SEABORNE UREA UNDER FORCE MAJEURE — Oil&Gas Middle East mid-June "restart within a month" guidance now decisively contradicted by CEO Al-Kaabi Jul 9 pause. Two LNG trains + 1 GTL facility damaged in Mar 2 + Mar 18 strikes; 17% of Qatar LNG offline. QAFCO under normal conditions produces roughly 14% of global seaborne urea supply — this is now the working supply-side compression anchor.

1. 🔴 IMO/DoW MINE-CLEARANCE MISSION STARTED JUN 25 (US DoW official announcement carry) but IRAN REJECTS FOREIGN MINE-CLEARANCE ROLE (Iranian FM Baqaei via Marine Insight): "Iran knows its responsibilities better than any other party." This is the anchor for why the Islamabad-MOU Article 5 (Iran-coordinated mine clearance) 30-day clock is technically infeasible even under Iran's own execution — Iran refuses foreign help but has not published clearance progress.

1. 🟢 FAO FPI JUNE CONFIRMED — 130.3 (−0.3% MoM); Cereal Sub-Index 110.2 (−3.5% MoM but +2.7% YoY); wheat −4.4%; maize −6.2%; rice +3.2%; sugar −5.7% — last relief-anchor carry from compression cluster. Forward-July print early-August will register the Jul 7-13 escalation cluster + T+1 grain re-price + Brent $83 fuel-side pass-through.

1. 🔴 NORTHEAST NIGERIA CARRY — 34.8M Jun-Aug + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno (WFP/FAO-WFP); IPC/FAO-WFP identifies Nigeria as country of highest concern with Borno State potentially facing Catastrophe levels. Sahel 24M aggregate need.

• WFP Syria Aug 1M-severest Day −22 → Day −18 as of Jul 14
• WFP Sudan 19.5M-21M acute hunger + Kordofan/Darfur famine-risk carry
• WFP Afghanistan $622M/6mo + Jalalabad clinic refusals + Nov pipeline-break carry
• Yemen 5.4M crisis+ Gov-controlled + 5.5M Emergency + 41K catastrophe Sanaa-authority (IPC/UNICEF)
• Gaza 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 severe-death-risk children through Jun 2026 + 55K PLW malnutrition carry (IPC/UNICEF/UNRWA)
• Iran ammonia halted + ~16M MT/yr Gulf fert trapped carry
• Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant complete stoppages (Carnegie/Diplomat/NPR)
• Straits Day 137 closed + IMO PAUSED +21d carry
• Islamabad-MOU Aug 17 deadline, Day 34 remaining
• War-risk 3-5× baseline path definitively broken carry
• Sahel lean Day 44 carry
• Gulf desal Bahrain 4-day reserve + Jul 9 Bahrain/Kuwait sirens carry
• Egypt 4.6M T record domestic wheat procurement carry (USDA/Discovery Alert); MY2026/27 Day 14

C44 → C45 DELTA ACCOUNTING

TRIP-WIRE STATUS (C45)

• 🔴 Hormuz Day 137: straits.live Day 137 closed; UKMTO SEVERE threat-level; IMO PAUSED +21d; central lanes mine-contaminated; ships transiting in secret (transponder-off) Jul 13
• 🔴 ISLAMABAD-MOU 30-DAY CLOCK — AUG 17 DEADLINE, DAY 34 REMAINING; technically infeasible by 40-50-day Western-maritime + 6-month WaPo/Congress + Iran-rejects-foreign-help + no published Iran clearance progress
• 🔴 TRUMP REIMPOSES IRAN-SHIP BLOCKADE + CARGO-TOLL DEMAND JUL 13 — Islamabad-MOU Article 2 (toll-free 60-day passage) bilaterally negated
• 🔴 UAE TANKERS HIT BY IRANIAN MISSILES JUL 13 — Omani territorial waters — 1 crew killed — first Iran hit on UAE-flagged tonnage
• 🔴 US CENTCOM THIRD-NIGHT STRIKES JUL 13 — coastal-surveillance + drone/missile capabilities
• 🔴 DOHA FRAMEWORK COLLAPSE carry — post-funeral resumption UNSCHEDULED
• 🔴 QATARENERGY CEO AL-KAABI JUL 9 PAUSE carry — QAFCO 14% global seaborne urea share under force majeure
• 🔴 KHAMENEI BURIED JUL 9 MASHHAD — Mojtaba hidden through full procession + burial carry
• 🔴 IRAN RETIREE + CITIZEN PROTEST WAVE JUL 12 SHUSH + KERMANSHAH — "Warmongering enough, tables empty"
• 🔴 Brent: $83+ Jul 13 close (+9.4% Monday rally; highest since Jun 22)
• 🔴 WTI: ~$78 Jul 13
• 🔴 CBOT wheat Jul26 SRW: $6.09/bu Jul 7 T+1 carry (second-week print pending under Brent $83)
• 🔴 CBOT corn Jul26: $4.425/bu Jul 7 T+1 carry
• 🟡 CBOT rice: Sep resistance 1391/1404/1416; support 1340/1292/1268 carry
• 🔴 Urea $700/T "near" spot post-Feb-blockade briefs.co carry; WB nitrogen $850+/T April carry (+80% since Feb); QatarEnergy ramp-pause accelerates upward re-price expectation
• 🔴 DAP: $914/MT late-May carry
• 🔴 Sulfuric acid: Day 75 ban
• 🟢 FAO Cereals sub-index June −3.5% MoM carry (last relief-anchor); forward-July print early-Aug will register Jul 7-13 escalation
• 🔴 WFP 45M trigger carry; Nigeria Jul 300K children operational
• 🔴 WFP Syria: JUL FORMAL cut implementing; AUG 1M-severest countdown Day −18
• 🔴 WFP Sudan: 19.5M-21M carry; "fully run out within weeks"; Kordofan/Darfur famine-risk 14 areas (IPC/22 INGOs)
• 🔴 WFP Afghanistan: $622M/6mo carry; Jalalabad-clinic refusals; Nov pipeline break
• 🔴 Gaza: 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 severe-death-risk children + 55K PLW malnutrition through Jun 2026 (IPC/UNICEF/UNRWA)
• 🔴 Yemen: 5.4M crisis+ Gov-controlled; 5.5M Emergency; 41K Catastrophe Sanaa-authority; 18.3M aggregate; Jul flood/locust/planting overlay
• 🔴 Iran internal: IMF 68.9% inflation; bread/cereals July 81.8% YoY (base-effect softening from 140% May peak); official Jun 23 doubling reconfirmed retail; min-wage 37% of living-cost; NCRI Jul 12 protest wave
• 🔴 Qatar Ras Laffan "years to fix" (17% LNG offline) + Jun 21 Barzan-during-restart + Jul 7 al-Rakiyat LNG-tanker strike + Jul 9 Al-Kaabi CEO ramp-pause + QAFCO 14% global seaborne urea force-majeure
• 🔴 Iran ammonia halted; ~16M MT/yr Gulf fert trapped
• 🔴 South Asian fert-production-side depletion: Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic plants complete stoppages
• 🔴 Gulf desalination: Bahrain 4-day reserve; UAE 2/16/45-day emergency-tiered reserve; Kuwait 10-15 day reserve; Jul 9 Bahrain/Kuwait sirens
• 🔴 Sahel: 52.8M-55M Jun-Aug; Nigeria 34.8M Jun-Aug + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno; 24M aggregate humanitarian need; lean Day 44
• 🔴 Bangladesh: USDA MY2026/27 2.02 crore t −1.4% + WORLD BANK $1.1B PACKAGE (JUN 26 press release confirmed): $300M FERT + $713M CERP + $87M food security; Aman + Boro = 90% of rice output
• 🔴 Sri Lanka: ~30% urea shortfall + Cyclone Ditwah Maha damage carry
• 🟡 Egypt: 4.6M T record domestic wheat procurement (all-time high); MY2026/27 Day 14; Mostakbal Misr friction carry; urea spot-price surged (Discovery Alert)
• 🔴 War-risk insurance: 3-5× baseline path definitively broken; dark-transit workaround emerging (Insurance Journal)

COMMODITY PRICE DASHBOARD (C45 vs C44 late)

COUNTRY FOOD SECURITY MATRIX (C45 — DELTAS ONLY)

FERTILIZER SUPPLY CHAIN (C45 — DELTAS)

• Nitrogen / Urea — QAFCO 14% GLOBAL SEABORNE UREA CONFIRMED FORCE-MAJEURE anchor. Under normal conditions produces ~3.8M T ammonia + 5.6M T urea/yr; roughly 14% of global seaborne urea supply. Al-Kaabi Jul 9 CEO pause of Ras Laffan ramp-up decisively withdraws mid-June Oil&Gas Middle East "restart within a month" guidance. World Bank nitrogen (urea) index climbed above $850/T in April (+80% since Feb 2026); briefs.co carries "~$700/T +50% after Hormuz blockade." Trading Economics $362/T pre-attack anchor is now a historical benchmark, not a live spot. Brent $83 Jul 13 close accelerates upward re-price expectation.

• South Asian production-side depletion carry — Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant complete stoppages (Carnegie/Diplomat/NPR). India uses 60M T/yr fertilizer nutrients; Pakistan 10M T/yr; Bangladesh 6M T/yr. Roughly 25-30% of Bangladesh's imported fertiliser and 20-25% of Pakistan's imports (particularly DAP) transit Hormuz. Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation has shut 4 of 5 urea plants due to gas rationing.

• Bangladesh WB $1.1B package (confirmed Jun 26 press release): $300M Fert Import Project financing 600K T fert (half Urea, covering 1.4M ha smallholder rice) for Aman (Jul-Oct 2026) + Boro (Oct 2026-Apr 2027) rice seasons + $713M CERP (cash transfers + livelihood for HH/MSMEs) + $87M food-security tranche. Bangladesh imports >85% of fertilizer requirements.

• Iran ammonia carry: production halted since Feb 28; ~3.9M T of Gulf fertilizer exports suspended since end-Feb, equivalent to ~30% of annual Gulf-state fertilizer exports (blogs.worldbank.org).

• Sub-Saharan Africa risk: >90% of fertilizer consumed in SSA is imported; farmers depend heavily on Gulf supply chains; yield reductions of 20-30% plausible in parts of the Sahel if input shortages persist (WUR/Stimson).

• Egypt urea spot-price surged (Discovery Alert 2026-post-US-Israel-strike carry). MY2026/27 Day 14 procurement + Mostakbal Misr private-deal print pending.

WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (C45 — DELTAS)

• Post-Jul-9-siren → Jul 13-UAE-strike window: Jul 13 strike stage on UAE-flagged tankers escalates from Jul 9 alert-stage on Bahrain/Kuwait, but no confirmed strike on desal facilities in the Jul 10-14 window. Bahrain 4-day reserve carry; UAE 2/16/45-day emergency-tiered reserve carry; Kuwait 10-15 day reserve carry. Structural-fragility carries; no fresh strike on plants.

• CSIS scenario carry: If desal plants attacked at scale, majority of GCC-state populations lose potable water "in days." Iran capability confirmed but no plant-strike executed Jul 10-14.

• Qeshm Island Mar 7 + Bahrain Mar 8 carry: Iran-side + Bahrain-side plant-hit incidents from early war; no fresh incidents.

FISHING / MARITIME FOOD SOURCES (C45 — DELTAS)

• UAE tanker strike Jul 13 adds direct kinetic-strike vector at Gulf-partner commercial tonnage — one crew fatality is first Jul 7-13 escalation-cluster human loss (per available reporting).
• Trump Jul 13 blockade-reimposition + cargo-toll demand creates additional throughput-compression layer independent of kinetic risk.
• Ships-transit-in-secret (Insurance Journal Jul 13) — dark-transit/transponder-off workaround emerging; does not restore grain/fert throughput but does mark adaptation vector.
• IMO ~80 mines + 40-50 day expert-consensus + 6-month WaPo/Congress carry; US DoW Jun 25 mission-start + Iran rejects foreign mine-clearance role (Baqaei via Marine Insight) = Article-5 stall.
• IMO evacuation PAUSED +21d carry.
• Persian Gulf fishing carry.

HUMANITARIAN ACCESS (C45 — DELTAS)

• Sudan IPC/22 INGOs Kordofan + Darfur 14-area famine-risk carry sharpens.
• WFP Syria Aug 1M-severest Day −18 window (was −22 in C44).
• WFP Sudan 19.5M-21M carry — Kordofan/Darfur famine risk emphasized by 22 INGO joint statement.
• WFP Afghanistan $622M/6mo + Jalalabad-clinic-refusals carry.
• Nigeria WFP + FAO-WFP "country of highest concern" formalization; 34.8M Jun-Aug + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno carry.
• Yemen 5.4M crisis+ Gov-controlled + 5.5M Emergency + 41K Catastrophe Sanaa-authority carry; Jul flood/locust/planting-delay overlay carry.
• Gaza: 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 severe-death-risk children (tripled from 14,100 May-2025 baseline) + 55K PLW malnutrition through Jun 2026 (IPC/UNICEF/UNRWA/Lancet).
• 13-hotspot FAO-WFP report carry; Nigeria added as country of highest concern.
• Ramadan-legacy suspensions carry: WFP Jordan 135K Syrian refugees suspended; Egypt 250K Sudanese refugees halted.

CROSS-TRACKER LINKAGE (C45)

• Hormuz Crisis Tracker: Day 137 — degradation deep-track; UKMTO SEVERE; UAE tanker strike Jul 13 = first Iran-on-UAE-flagged direct hit; Trump blockade-reimposition negates MOU Art. 2; ships-in-secret Jul 13 adaptation; IMO ~80 mines + 40-50-day expert-consensus + 6-month WaPo/Congress + Iran-rejects-foreign-help + US-DoW-Jun-25-start; Islamabad-MOU Day 34 remaining but Article 5 stall confirmed.
• Global Oil Shortage Tracker: Brent $83+ Jul 13 close (+9.4% Monday rally, highest since Jun 22); WTI ~$78 Jul 13; Trump reimposes blockade + demands cargo toll; C43 → C44 reversal now fully broken upward; C44 partial-retrace to $77 decisively erased.
• TACO Tracker (Trump Policy Oscillation): Trump Jul 13 blockade-reimposition + cargo-toll demand is a producer-decision-layer escalation of the C43 sanction-waiver revocation; QatarEnergy Jul 9 pause + Al-Kaabi CEO decision + QAFCO 14% force-majeure remain in the pause-camp; post-funeral Doha resumption still UNSCHEDULED; retiree/citizen protest wave Jul 12 is the domestic-Iran reciprocal.
• Sovereign Events Scout: Jul 13 UAE-tanker strike + Trump-blockade-reimposition + US-CENTCOM-3rd-night = T1 escalation-cluster events; ships-in-secret = T2 adaptation event.
• Iran War Food Impact (this tracker): score 9.1 (↑0.1 from C44). Floor breaks upward. C43 → C44 → C45 arc is: Doha collapse (C43 8.5→9.0) → CEO-decision-layer confirmation + T+1 grain print + WB $1B crystallization (C44 hold 9.0) → third-weekend strike cluster + UAE-direct-hit + Brent $83 + Trump-blockade + Iran-protest-wave (C45 9.0→9.1). Score does not push to 9.2 because CBOT grain second-week print not yet resolved + urea/DAP spot re-price pending + FAO cereals June sub-index carries + ships-in-secret shows adaptation-workaround emerging.

ESCALATION TRIGGERS (C46 WATCH)

1. UAE retaliation Jul 14-20 — Abu Dhabi response to Jul 13 direct-hit + first fatality?
2. US strike-cadence Jul 14-20 — fourth-weekend continuation vs de-escalation?
3. Iran retaliation follow-through — sirens vs strikes on Bahrain/Kuwait/UAE + Saudi Arabia (not yet targeted)?
4. CBOT wheat/corn Jul 14-21 second-week post-Jul-13 print — does $6.09 wheat / $4.425 corn T+1 baseline extend to $6.20+ / $4.50+ under Brent $83?
5. Urea + DAP post-Jul-13 spot re-price — where does the range settle under QatarEnergy ramp-pause + Brent $83 + WB $1.1B financing demand pull?
6. Brent Jul 14-21 second-week: $85 test hold vs back-channel compression to $80? — $83 Jul 13 anchor.
7. WTI Jul 14-21 anchoring — $78 Jul 13 base.
8. Doha re-mediation announcement Jul 14-20 — still UNSCHEDULED; Trump blockade-reimposition further reduces pathway.
9. Islamabad-MOU 30-day clock Day 34 — Iran Article-5 self-execution progress publication?
10. Ships-in-secret cadence Jul 14-21 — throughput volume observation + insurance-market response?
11. QAFCO/QatarEnergy vessel-docking volume Jul 14-21 — Bloomberg-anchor tonnage resolution?
12. WFP Sudan Jul-Aug stock-out cascade — weekend pipeline print.
13. WFP Syria Aug 1M-severest Day −18 → −11 window.
14. Afghan Jalalabad-clinic refusals cascade — Q3 leading indicator.
15. Nigeria WFP Jul scale-down operationalization.
16. Iran protest-wave Jul 14-31 — Shush + Kermanshah escalation to Tehran + Isfahan?
17. Iran regime price-adjustment response Jul 14-31 — fragmentary bread rollout to prevent "social explosion" (NCRI framing).
18. Gulf desal Jul 14-21 post-UAE-strike window — plant-strike graduation vs alert-stage carry?
19. Egypt MY2026/27 Jul 14-31 procurement — Mostakbal Misr private-deal print.
20. Bangladesh Aman monsoon-execution + WB CERP disbursement timeline.
21. Yemen Jul flood + planting delay + desert locust cascade.
22. Gaza "silent famine" trajectory Jul under nominal ceasefire.
23. FAO FPI July print early-August — attribution vector for Jul 7-13 escalation + Brent $83 pass-through.
24. Mojtaba post-burial appearance / continued absence Jul 14-31.
25. Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant restart-trajectory — gas-feedstock recovery timeline.

SCORE HISTORY (last 12 cycles)

C46 PRIMARY WATCH

• UAE retaliation Jul 14-20 — Abu Dhabi response to first fatality on UAE-flagged tonnage.
• CBOT wheat/corn Jul 14-21 second-week print under Brent $83 pass-through.
• Urea + DAP post-Jul-13 spot re-price under QatarEnergy ramp-pause + Bangladesh $1.1B demand pull.
• Brent $85 test vs back-channel compression to $80 — $83 Jul 13 anchor.
• US strike-cadence Jul 14-20 — fourth-weekend or de-escalation.
• Ships-in-secret cadence + insurance-market response Jul 14-21.
• Iran protest wave Jul 14-31 — Shush/Kermanshah to Tehran/Isfahan escalation?.
• Islamabad-MOU Day 34 → Day 27 — Iran Article-5 progress publication.
• WFP Sudan/Syria/Afghanistan pipeline windows.
• Nigeria WFP Jul scale-down operationalization.
• Gulf desalination post-UAE-strike window — plant-strike graduation?
• Egypt MY2026/27 procurement.
• Bangladesh Aman monsoon + WB $1.1B CERP execution timeline.
• Pakistan + Bangladesh domestic fert-plant restart-trajectory.
• Mojtaba post-burial appearance / continued absence.

NOTES & METHODOLOGY

• C45 is a regular-cycle update capturing the Jul 11-13 third-weekend strike-exchange cluster + UAE tanker strike + Brent $83 close + Trump blockade-reimposition + Iran retiree/citizen protest wave. C44 established the CEO-decision-layer + T+1 grain-market + Bangladesh-financing anchor holds at 9.0; C45 breaks the floor upward on strike-stage graduation on UAE-flagged tonnage + Brent decisive break to $83 + Trump-side production-decision on blockade.
• Fuel-driven vs trade-route-driven separation, C45: Fuel side — Brent $83+ Jul 13 close (+9.4% Monday, highest since Jun 22 pre-Geneva-signing); WTI ~$78 Jul 13; C43 $78.02 surpassed, C44 $77 partial-retrace erased. Trade-route side — Trump blockade + cargo-toll negates Islamabad-MOU Art. 2 bilaterally; UAE tanker strike Jul 13 = strike-stage graduation on ally-flagged commercial tonnage; ships-in-secret Jul 13 = dark-transit adaptation vector; IMO ~80 mines + Iran-rejects-foreign-help + US-DoW-mission-start-Jun-25 = Article-5 stall.
• UAE tanker strike Jul 13: 2 UAE-flagged tankers hit by Iranian missiles in Omani territorial waters; 1 crew member killed. First Iran-on-UAE-flagged direct hit of the war and first fatality in the Jul 7-13 escalation cluster. Converts alert-stage (Bahrain/Kuwait Jul 9 sirens) to strike-stage on GCC-partner-flagged commercial vessels.
• Trump Jul 13 blockade-reimposition + cargo-toll demand: US-side production-decision-layer confirmation of the C43 Doha-framework-collapse; sanction-waiver revocation upgraded to explicit blockade on Iranian ships + demand for payment for all cargo through the waterway. Islamabad-MOU Article 2 (toll-free 60-day passage) is now bilaterally negated; Iran-rejects-foreign-mine-clearance-help stalls Article 5.
• Iran bread YoY 81.8% July print (base-effect softening from 140% May peak): retail Lavash 1,400→2,700 tomans (+100%); Barbari to 10,000 tomans (+90%); Sangak to 15,500 tomans reconfirmed. Fragmented rollout to prevent "social explosion" (NCRI framing). Jul 12 retiree + citizen protest wave in Shush + Kermanshah in >50°C with chants: "Warmongering enough, our tables empty" / "Inflation and high prices, no to war and destruction" = first observed protest wave binding war-anti-message to hunger-message.
• Bangladesh WB package upward-revised to $1.1B (from $1B C44 anchor): $300M Fertilizer Import Project (600K T fert, half Urea, covering 1.4M ha smallholder rice) for Aman (Jul-Oct 2026) + Boro (Oct 2026-Apr 2027) rice seasons + $713M CERP (cash transfers + livelihood assistance for HH/MSMEs) + $87M food-security tranche. Aman + Boro together = ~90% of Bangladesh rice output.
• QAFCO 14% global seaborne urea share confirmed force-majeure anchor: 3.8M T ammonia + 5.6M T urea/yr capacity; the mid-June "restart within a month" guidance is now decisively withdrawn by Al-Kaabi Jul 9 pause. WB nitrogen (urea) index climbed above $850/T in April 2026, +80% since Feb 2026; briefs.co carries ~$700/T +50% post-blockade.
• Ships-transit-in-secret (Insurance Journal Jul 13): dark-transit/transponder-off workaround emerging as insurance and darkness-cover become operational regime. Does not restore normal grain/fert throughput but marks marginal adaptation vector — vessels moving under war-risk-insurance-workaround conditions rather than by re-price restoration.
• Cumulative interpretation: C45 breaks the C43-C44 floor at 9.0 upward to 9.1 on third-weekend strike-exchange cluster + UAE direct-hit + Brent $83 + Trump-blockade cluster. Score does not push to 9.2 because CBOT grain second-week print not yet resolved (though implied under Brent $83); urea/DAP spot re-price pending; FAO cereals June sub-index carries as last relief anchor; ships-in-secret adaptation-workaround marks a partial-throughput vector. The C43→C44→C45 arc is: framework-collapse (C43 +0.5) → confirmation-hold (C44 0.0) → strike-stage-graduation (C45 +0.1).

Scout 🏹 | C45 Jul-14 Update — Third-Weekend Strike Exchange Jul 11-13; UAE Tankers Hit by Iranian Missiles Jul 13 in Omani Territorial Waters (1 Crew Killed, First UAE-flagged Iran Strike); Brent $83+ Jul 13 Close (+9.4% Monday Rally, Highest Since Jun 22 Pre-Geneva-Signing); WTI ~$78 Jul 13; Trump Jul 13 Reimposes Blockade on Iranian Ships + Demands Payment for All Cargo Through Strait (Islamabad-MOU Article 2 Bilaterally Negated); Ships Transit Hormuz in Secret (Insurance Journal Jul 13 — Dark-Transit Workaround Emerging); Bangladesh World Bank Package Upward-Revised to $1.1B ($300M Fertilizer + $713M CERP + $87M Food Security — Aman + Boro = 90% Rice Output); Iran Bread/Cereal 81.8% YoY July Official Print (Base-Effect from 140% May Peak) but Retail Lavash 1,400→2,700 tomans (+100%); Barbari to 10,000; Sangak to 15,500 Reconfirmed; Iran Retiree + Citizen Protest Wave Jul 12 Shush + Kermanshah in >50°C ("Warmongering Enough, Tables Empty" / "No to War and Destruction"); QAFCO 14% Global Seaborne Urea Share Confirmed Force-Majeure Anchor (Al-Kaabi Jul 9 Pause Decisively Withdraws Mid-June "Restart Within a Month" Guidance); IMO ~80 Mines + Iran Rejects Foreign Mine-Clearance Role (Baqaei) + US DoW Jun 25 Mission-Start = Islamabad-MOU Article 5 Stall; WFP Syria Day −18; WFP Sudan 19.5M-21M + Kordofan/Darfur 14-Area IPC Famine Risk (22 INGO Joint Statement); WFP Afghanistan $622M/6mo; Nigeria 34.8M Jun-Aug + 1.8M Emergency + 15K Catastrophe Borno (FAO-WFP "Country of Highest Concern"); Yemen 5.4M/5.5M/41K Catastrophe Sanaa; Gaza 132K U5 SAM + 43,400 Severe-Death-Risk Children + 55K PLW Malnutrition; FAO Cereals Sub-Index June −3.5% MoM Carry (Last Relief-Anchor); Straits Day 137 Closed; IMO PAUSED +21d; Sulfuric Acid Day 75; Islamabad-MOU Day 34 Remaining; Score 9.1 (↑0.1 from C44 9.0) | 2026-07-14 | Sources: Bloomberg (Oil Jul 14 + WB Bangladesh $1B), Fortune (Oil Jul 13), CNN Live (UAE tanker strike + fatality Jul 13), Al Jazeera (Oil Jul 13 + Ships attacked Jul 7 + Desalination + Minesweeping visual), NPR (US-Iran Jul 11 vessel-attack strait Hormuz), Washington Post (US-Iran fresh strikes Jul 7 + 6-mo mine-clearance testimony), Insurance Journal (Ships Transit Hormuz in Secret Jul 13), Marine Insight (Iran rejects foreign role), World Bank Press Release Jun 26 (Bangladesh $1.1B), The Daily Star (Bangladesh WB $1.1B Jun 27), NCRI (Jul 4/6/7/9/12 dispatches — bread doubling + Shush/Kermanshah protests + economic hemorrhage), Iran Focus + Iran News Update (Bread hikes + hunger uprising framing), CSIS (Desalination), Atlantic Council + Arab Center DC (Desalination war-dangers), Circle of Blue (Gulf water disruption), Al Jazeera (Gulf desal shares), CSMonitor (Gulf water war), CNN (Water Middle East risk), IPC (Sudan + Yemen + Gaza + Nigeria), FAO (June FPI + Cereals −3.5% + 13-hotspots report), FAO/WFP (Hunger Hotspots Jun-Nov 2026 + Nigeria added country of highest concern), UNICEF/UNRWA/CBS (Gaza famine + 43,400 children + 55K PLW), Britannica + Wikipedia (2026 Iran war fuel crisis + Strait of Hormuz crisis + Economic impact 2026 Iran war), WFP (Six critical operations pipeline breaks + Sudan Kordofan/Darfur + Syria + Afghanistan), Farm Progress + Fertilizer Daily + Global Agriculture + IFPRI + Carnegie + Diplomat + NPR (Fertilizer Iran war South Asia), briefs.co + Statista + World Bank Open Data (Urea +50% to $700 / +80% to $850), Discovery Alert (Egypt urea + wheat procurement 4.6M T record), USDA FAS (Egypt wheat procurement 2026), Grain Journal + Trading Economics (Corn/Wheat/Cereals/FAO FPI), Illinois farmdoc / Pro Farmer (Grains Hormuz reopening), CNBC (Oil Jul 7-8 + Fertilizer Iran war food security), Trading Economics (Brent + Corn + Wheat), UN News (Aid strain WFP $200M), House of Saud (Hormuz mine 40 days), Safety4Sea (Iran mine-clearance rejection), Hormuz Strait Monitor (Crisis Timeline), IMF (War on energy + Africa cost of living), Stimson Center (Africa Sahel Mediterranean impact), World Bank Blog (Food prices Middle East war), WUR (Rising food prices)