Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-10 · Cycle 1 (C263)

War Day: 164 | Blockade Day: 28 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-10 evening-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN PARLIAMENT NSC + FOREIGN POLICY COMMITTEE APPROVES STRATEGIC-ACTION-PLAN GENERAL FRAMEWORK Aug-10 per Prokerala + TASS + APA + Mezha + New Kerala + Morung Express — "approved without opposition"; NSC-committee-tier codification-track ADVANCES from C262 "under review" → C263 "committee-approved"; INSTITUTIONAL-FORMALIZATION VEHICLE PROMOTED TO COMMITTEE-APPROVED-TIER | 🔴 CENTCOM 55 VESSELS REDIRECTED (+2 vs C262 53) + 2-DISABLED + 2-BOARDED + 30+ HUMANITARIAN + 20+ US WARSHIPS DEPLOYED per CENTCOM Mon-Aug-10 update via ANI + CNBC + Tribune India + Outlook + Iran International — BLOCKADE-ENFORCEMENT TIGHTENS 2-VESSEL-INCREMENT AT SUN-MON-WINDOW | 🔴🔴🔴 BRENT $84.18 MON-AUG-10 OPEN +0.75% / THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION OF GAINS per Trading Economics + CNBC + Al Jazeera — Trump-"low-keying-it"-doctrine-C262 did NOT dampen Mon-open; upside-force (Araghchi-no-talks + Parliament-committee-approved + Houthi-Jazan + ADNOC-cumulative-weekend) prevailed over downside-force (Trump-restraint); UPPER-BAND-C262 FORECAST VALIDATED — Mon-open $84 = mid-anchor | 🟡🔴 MOJTABA VIDEO RELEASED BY MEHR NEWS Sun-Aug-9 per Israel Hayom + ANI + Siasat + Business Standard + Gateway Pundit + UA News — 12-second undated video, first-ever publicly-released; black turban, light-gray clothing, sitting on carpet, talking with others; RELEASED IN RESPONSE TO ISRAELI MEDIA CLAIMS OF CRITICAL-HEALTH-CONDITION; still no verified date/location — 14+ CYCLE MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-CRISIS PARTIALLY-RESOLVES (visual-proof surfaces) BUT SECONDARY QUESTIONS DEEPEN (Israeli-claim-of-critical-health + undated + no-location + defensive-release-context) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI DRONE STRIKE ON ARAMCO JAZAN REFINERY (400K BPD) Sun-Aug-9 per NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + CBC + WaPo + Washington Times + Reuters via Investing.com + Wikipedia (2026 Aramco refinery attack) — Saree: "targeted with a drone, strike was precise"; fire extinguished, no injuries; stated response to Saudi drone-overflight of Saada + Hajjah; ATTACK CAME 2 DAYS AFTER MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT SIGNED Aug-7 — Houthi-Iran-axis TESTING Mecca-collective-defence CLAUSE OPERATIONALLY within 48h of signing | 🟢🟡 TRUMP MON-AUG-10 REITERATES NO-TOLLS "I'M NOT GOING TO LET THEM CHARGE" per CNBC + Al Jazeera — Trump-low-keying-C262-CARRIES + Trump-Mon-Aug-10-no-tolls-red-line REAFFIRMED as companion-statement; HORMUZ-TOLLS = STRUCTURAL US-RED-LINE INTACT | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION-C262 CARRIES + Iran-Oman-agreement "on verge of finalising" per Al Jazeera Aug-10 — reopening tied to US-MoU-compensation CARRIES + joint-coordination-center + coordinates-agreed | 🔴🔴🔴 ISRAEL "SIGNALS READINESS FOR THIRD STRIKE" per Fox News + Netanyahu air-force-ceremony "war has not ended" — Netanyahu-JPost-hardening + Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES + Pentagon-21-day-memo-C262-caps operationally | 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQI MILITIA DISARMAMENT DEADLINE "FLEXIBLE" per Shia Coordination Framework via Critical Threats Aug-7 (extends to C263) — Sept-30 deadline "flexible"; Kataib Hezbollah + HHN + KSS refusing; Al-Ameri-mediation-frame holds; no-C263-rupture EXTENDS | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE INTO MID-AUGUST → EDISON-SEPTEMBER CARRIES; Ras Laffan may not resume full ops until at-least end-August per Business Standard | 🔴 NO C263 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC IN HORMUZ-PROPER through Mon-Aug-10-open — UKMTO Mon window clean; Kumzar Aug-6 + Khasab-18nm Aug-8 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + Sepah Navy VHF Aug-2 + ADNOC Aug-8 CARRIES | 🟢🟡 SPR 304.8M mb / 42.7% capacity CARRIES (Jul-31 data); next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+2 days) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT + TURKEY-DISCLAIMER + EGYPT-EXPANSION CARRIES + HOUTHI-JAZAN-STRIKE-TESTS-MECCA-CLAUSE-C263 | 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA GROSSI 36TH-CYCLE SILENCE | Cycle: C263 (Mon-Aug-10 evening-CEST ~20:00 / Mon-early-afternoon-ET ~14:00, ~24h delta from C262)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP Grok_outputs folder lookup: most-recent HORMUZ-tagged Grok note is HORMUZ X-PULSE from Apr-29-2026; THIRTY-SIXTH consecutive cycle: C228→C263. Full-13-topic web sweep (~15 searches) executed on: Parliament-committee-approval + CENTCOM-55-vessels + Brent-Mon-open + Mojtaba-video-release + Houthi-Jazan-strike + Trump-Mon-Aug-10-no-tolls + Araghchi-compensation-CARRIES + Iran-Oman-final-stages + Israel-third-strike-signal + Netanyahu-air-force-ceremony + Iraqi-militia-Sept-30-flexible + IAEA-Grossi-silence-36th + UKMTO-Mon-window + SPR-Jul-31-CARRIES + Red-Sea-Bab-el-Mandeb-Kpler-34%-decline.

Baseline: C262 / 2026-08-09 Sun-evening-CEST ~20:00 (TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-ECONOMIC-PRESSURE-DOCTRINE + ARAGHCHI-FORMAL-"NO-TALKS"-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION + PARLIAMENT-DRAFT-BILL-4-PROVISIONS + PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA-"LATE-JULY-MEETING"-CLAIM-WITHOUT-PROOF + PENTAGON-21-DAY-WEAPONS-PRODUCTION-MEMO + NO-C262-FRESH-KINETIC).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-10 C263 Mon-evening-CEST ~20:00 / Mon-early-afternoon-ET ~14:00, ~24h delta from C262): C263 is a PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-STRATEGIC-ACTION-PLAN + MOJTABA-VIDEO-PARTIALLY-SURFACES + HOUTHI-JAZAN-REFINERY-STRIKE + BRENT-$84.18-MON-OPEN-UPSIDE-VALIDATED + CENTCOM-55-VESSELS-BLOCKADE-INCREMENT cycle at T+~24h from C262. The C262 "stable-but-frozen" configuration proves NOT stable — Iran-side hardening ACCELERATED at parliament-committee-tier (bill-approved-general-outlines-without-opposition), Houthi-axis TESTED Mecca-pact operationally within 48h of signing, oil-market REPRICED upward despite Trump-restraint doctrine, and Mojtaba-visibility crisis PARTIALLY-RESOLVED but under-defensive-circumstances (Israeli-critical-health-media-claim response-context). This is a system where escalation-forces are outrunning restraint-frames at every institutional layer. Six substantive observations vs C262: (a) IRAN PARLIAMENT NSC + FOREIGN POLICY COMMITTEE APPROVES STRATEGIC-ACTION-PLAN GENERAL FRAMEWORK Mon-Aug-10 per Prokerala + TASS + APA + Mezha + New Kerala + Morung Express + DNP India + APA.az — "General outlines of a strategic action plan to 'ensure the security and sustainable progress' of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf" approved without opposition; committee reviewed submissions from relevant Iranian bodies before endorsing framework. This is INSTITUTIONAL PROMOTION from C262 "committee-review" → C263 "committee-approved-general-outlines". Next test: floor-vote timing + provision-specific-approval. The parliament-committee-approval is the FIRST INSTITUTIONAL RATIFICATION of the codification-track (Zolghadr-6-demand + Article-Five-14-point-MoU-detail + Araghchi-"no-talks"-compensation-precondition + 4-provisions-draft-bill) — no longer speculative, now committee-tier-formalized. Parliament floor-vote next 7-21 days window. (b) MOJTABA VIDEO RELEASED BY MEHR NEWS Sun-Aug-9 per Israel Hayom + ANI + Siasat + Business Standard + Gateway Pundit + UA News + The Business Standard — 12-second undated video, first-ever publicly-released video of Mojtaba as Supreme Leader; man in black turban + light-gray clothing sitting on carpet in indoor room, talking with people nearby; no date or location specified. Release-context: Israeli media claims Mojtaba was in critical condition and had been rushed to hospital days prior — Mehr-release is DEFENSIVE-DENIAL-RESPONSE, not routine-confirmation. Resolution of 14+ cycle Mojtaba-visibility-crisis: PARTIAL — visual-proof surfaces for first time since March-8 succession, but under-defensive-circumstances with (i) undated + no-location; (ii) Israeli-critical-health context; (iii) 12-second brevity; (iv) no state-media-verified-timeline; (v) no fresh audio; (vi) Pezeshkian internal-contradiction-C262 CARRIES (July-21 "day by day" vs early-Aug "very difficult"). Mojtaba-crisis RESOLVES from claim-without-proof (C262) → visual-proof-under-defensive-circumstances (C263)** — quality-of-visibility upgrades but authenticity + freshness + healthcondition-implications NOT resolved. (c) HOUTHI DRONE STRIKE ON ARAMCO JAZAN REFINERY (400K BPD) Sun-Aug-9 per NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + CBC + WaPo + Washington Times + Reuters via Investing.com + Wikipedia (2026 Aramco refinery attack) — Yahya Saree: "targeted with a drone, strike was precise"; fire extinguished by Saudi energy ministry, no injuries; stated response to Saudi drone-overflight of Saada + Hajjah provinces. Attack came 2 DAYS AFTER Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed Aug-7 (Saudi + Turkey + Pakistan) — Houthi-Iran-axis TESTING Mecca-collective-defence-clause OPERATIONALLY within 48h of signing. This is FIRST POST-MECCA-PACT KINETIC-STRIKE ON SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE — tests whether Turkey + Pakistan will invoke Article-1-collective-defence-clause; if NO invocation → pact demonstrates hollowness; if YES invocation → catastrophic-escalation-cascade. Wikipedia article "2026 Aramco refinery attack" indicates event-notability-tier at first-encyclopedia-write-up level within 24h. Jazan refinery = 400K bpd = SW Saudi Arabia, downstream of Yanbu-port; strike-adjacent to Yanbu-bound Saudi-E-W-pipeline exit-ramp. (d) BRENT $84.18 MON-AUG-10 OPEN +0.75% / THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION OF GAINS per Trading Economics + CNBC + Al Jazeera — UPPER-BAND-C262-FORECAST VALIDATED. C262 projected Mon-open $80-$88 with $84 median-anchor. Actual print: $84.18 = mid-anchor — Trump-"low-keying"-doctrine-C262 did NOT dampen Mon-open despite restraint-signal; upside-force (Araghchi-no-talks + Parliament-committee-approved + Houthi-Jazan + ADNOC-cumulative-weekend + Iran-Oman-still-conditional) prevailed over downside-force (Trump-restraint). Third consecutive session of gains implies structural upward-drift not driven by single-event but persistent conflict-premium. Al Jazeera framing: "Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of Hormuz." Mon-Aug-10 close-watch + Tue-Aug-11 EIA-STEO release + Aug-12 EIA weekly SPR figures = next data-points. (e) CENTCOM 55 VESSELS REDIRECTED + 2-DISABLED + 2-BOARDED + 30+ HUMANITARIAN + 20+ WARSHIPS Mon-Aug-10 per ANI + CNBC + Tribune India + Outlook + Iran International + New Kerala — +2 vessels since Aug-9 CENTCOM update (53 → 55); 20+ US warships deployed. Blockade-enforcement tightens 2-vessel-increment at Sun-Mon-window — steady-state ~1-2 vessel/day redirection-rate CONTINUES. This is background-enforcement-signal (not major-cycle-event) but CONFIRMS blockade-operational-tempo consistent with Trump-low-keying-frame (economic-pressure via enforcement rather than kinetic-escalation). (f) NO C263 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC IN HORMUZ-PROPER through Mon-Aug-10-open — UKMTO Mon window clean; ADNOC-Aug-8 + Kumzar-SE-Aug-6 + Khasab-18nm-Aug-8 + Minoan-Pioneer-Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat-Jul-7 + "Sepah-Navy"-VHF-Aug-2 CARRIES; Iran-side Hormuz-proper kinetic-pause extends to ~48h since ADNOC-strike Aug-8. Kinetic-pause pattern-consistent with parliament-institutional-formalization-track (Iran choosing legal-codification over further-kinetic in tanker-wave-context). BUT third-chokepoint-Houthi-Jazan-C263 REPLACES Hormuz-proper-kinetic-pause with Red-Sea-kinetic-continuation — Iran-Houthi-axis-substitution-effect (mutual-pause in Hormuz + Houthi-active in Red-Sea). NO FRESH C263 SIGNALS IN: Bahrain UNSC fresh vote (still absent despite Parliament-committee-approval + Houthi-Jazan + ADNOC-cumulative + Oman-condemn + Aug-9-parliament-bill fresh material available); IAEA Grossi Aug-10 statement (36th-cycle silence); UAE beyond-condemnation escalation (no coalition-request, no ADCOP-hardening announcement despite fresh institutional-hardening C263); Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession (Fidan-signal C261 CARRIES); Netanyahu-cabinet-reshuffle or IDF-command-crisis break-open (Netanyahu-air-force-ceremony hardened-rhetoric C263-carries); Trump escalation-response to Parliament-committee-approval (Trump-Mon-Aug-10 held no-tolls line but did not counter-escalate on parliament-approval); Fresh Israel round-2-strike-execution (signaling-only per Fox News); Iran parliament floor-vote schedule; Fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi statement. All C262 CARRIES apply where not superseded: Trump-low-keying-doctrine-C262 CARRIES + Mon-Aug-10-no-tolls-reaffirmed EXTENDS; Araghchi-formal-"no-talks"-compensation-precondition-C262 CARRIES + Mon-Aug-10-Al-Jazeera-reaffirmation CARRIES; Parliament-draft-bill-4-provisions-C262 CARRIES + committee-approved-general-outlines-C263 PROMOTES; Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-late-July-meeting-claim-C262 CARRIES + Mehr-video-release-C263 partially-resolves; Pentagon-21-day-weapons-memo-C262 CARRIES + no-fresh-C263-update; Pezeshkian-formal-claim-of-ADNOC-C261 CARRIES; Araghchi Article-Five-14-point-MoU-C261 CARRIES + Mon-Aug-10-Al-Jazeera-restatement; ADNOC-cumulative-15-vessels-1-KIA-20-injured C261 CARRIES + Aug-8 = 16th-attack per Al Jazeera Aug-10-reference; Oman-FM-condemnation-C261 CARRIES; Mecca-Egypt-expansion-signal-C261 CARRIES; Iraq-dual-track-deferral-C261-C262 CARRIES + Sept-30-flexible-Aug-7 EXTENDS; Hajideligani-Pezeshkian-impeachment-threat-C261 CARRIES; ADNOC-missile-strike-C260 CARRIES; Zolghadr-6-demand CARRIES; UAE + Qatar + Saudi condemnation CARRIES; CENTCOM 53 → 55 vessels + 30-humanitarian + F-35C sorties CARRIES + 2-vessel-increment-C263; VP Vance "max oil flow" CARRIES; Bessent-2-year-substitution-doctrine CARRIES; Turkey FM disclaimer CARRIES + Egypt-expansion-C261 extends; IRGC-Aerospace-separate-track CARRIES; Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES; Italy Tajani-Araghchi call CARRIES; Iran-Oman final-stages "very close" CARRIES + Al-Jazeera-Mon-Aug-10-restatement; Mecca pact CARRIES + Houthi-Jazan-test-C263; Saudi bracing CARRIES + Jazan-strike-C263-materializes; Houthi Wafa/Daisy CARRIES + Jazan-C263 escalation-continuation; Saudi Hodeidah + Houthi 12-missile retaliation CARRIES; QatarEnergy force-majeure end-Aug + Edison-September CARRIES + Ras-Laffan-full-ops-not-before-end-August CARRIES; Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-rupture CARRIES + Netanyahu-air-force-ceremony-Aug-9 EXTENDS; Iraq-Turkey pipeline 1-year deal CARRIES; SPR 304.8M/42.7% CARRIES; UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 CARRIES; Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 CARRIES; Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES; "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES; ADNOC Aug-8 CARRIES; Bahrain UNSC 2817 (135 co-sponsors) HISTORICAL CARRIES; IAEA no-staff 36th cycle CARRIES; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; ADNOC West-East-pipeline 50% early-2027-target CARRIES; Mombasa + Al Bahyah mid-July ADNOC-tankers CARRIES. C262 → C263 KEY DELTAS (~24h delta window): (1) IRAN PARLIAMENT NSC + FOREIGN POLICY COMMITTEE APPROVES STRATEGIC-ACTION-PLAN GENERAL FRAMEWORK Mon-Aug-10 — institutional-codification-track PROMOTED from "review" → "approved-general-outlines-without-opposition"; floor-vote next test. (2) MOJTABA VIDEO RELEASED BY MEHR NEWS Sun-Aug-9 — 12-second undated video first-ever-published; defensive-response to Israeli-critical-health-media-claim; visibility-crisis PARTIALLY-RESOLVES but authenticity + freshness + healthcondition-implications NOT resolved. (3) HOUTHI DRONE STRIKE ON ARAMCO JAZAN REFINERY (400K BPD) Sun-Aug-9 — 2 DAYS AFTER Mecca-pact-signing; FIRST POST-MECCA-PACT KINETIC-STRIKE ON SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE — tests Article-1-collective-defence-clause invocation window; fire extinguished, no injuries. (4) BRENT $84.18 MON-AUG-10 OPEN +0.75% / THIRD-CONSECUTIVE SESSION OF GAINS — C262 upper-band-forecast VALIDATED; Trump-restraint did NOT dampen; Araghchi + Parliament + Houthi + ADNOC-cumulative prevailed. (5) CENTCOM 55 VESSELS REDIRECTED (+2 vs C262 53) + 2-DISABLED + 2-BOARDED + 30+ HUMANITARIAN + 20+ WARSHIPS — steady-state 1-2 vessel/day redirection-rate CONTINUES; Trump-low-keying-frame preserves enforcement-tempo without kinetic-escalation. (6) TRUMP MON-AUG-10 REITERATES NO-TOLLS "I'M NOT GOING TO LET THEM CHARGE" — companion to Sunday low-keying doctrine; tolls-red-line REAFFIRMED as structural US position. (7) NO C263 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC IN HORMUZ-PROPER — Iran-side Hormuz-pause extends ~48h from ADNOC-Aug-8; Houthi-Red-Sea-Jazan-C263 substitutes for Hormuz-kinetic-continuation. (8) ISRAEL "READINESS FOR THIRD STRIKE" SIGNALED per Fox News + Netanyahu air-force-ceremony "war has not ended" — signaling-only, no execution; Pentagon-21-day-memo-C262 CAPS operationally. (9) IRAQI MILITIA DISARMAMENT SEPT-30 DEADLINE "FLEXIBLE" per Shia Coordination Framework via Critical Threats Aug-7 — Kataib Hezbollah + HHN + KSS refusing; Al-Ameri-mediation-frame CARRIES; no-C263-rupture EXTENDS. Structural locks (C262 → C263 ~24h delta): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES + BRENT-MON-OPEN-$84.18-UPPER-MID-BAND-VALIDATED-C263 — third-consecutive gains-session; escalation-premium reasserts despite Trump-restraint; C262-forecast-median-anchor validated; Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES + 30-HUMANITARIAN-PERMITTED + JAZAN-400K-BPD-INTACT (fire-extinguished) BUT SHORT-TERM-DISRUPTION-RISK; Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDING-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 DEEPLY-DEEPENS + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263 RED-SEA-INSURANCE-REPRICE — parliament-committee-approval formal-vessel-bans + 20% cargo-fine + armed-forces-oversight advances one institutional-tier; Red-Sea war-risk-hardens on Jazan-strike; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 DEEPENS; Lock-5 (Duration) MAXIMALIST-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVAL-C263 DEEPLY-DEEPENED + ARAGHCHI-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION EXTENDS + MOJTABA-VIDEO-PARTIALLY-RESOLVES-C263 (leadership-crisis-signal-narrows-slightly) — Iran-side codification-track ADVANCES institutionally; Trump-low-keying provides time-buffer; Lock-6 (Nuclear) NETANYAHU-JPOST-HARDENED-CARRIES + IAEA-36TH-CYCLE-CARRIES + ZAMIR-2027-CARRIES + NETANYAHU-AIR-FORCE-CEREMONY-C263-EXTENDS + PENTAGON-STOCKPILE-DEPLETION-BOUNDS-C262-CARRIES; Lock-7 (Geographic) MULTI-FRONT-CARRIES + MECCA-EGYPT-EXPANSION CARRIES + IRAQ-DUAL-TRACK-DEFERRAL-C261 EXTENDS + NO-C263-IRAQ-RUPTURE + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263-RED-SEA-EXPANSION; Lock-8 (Capability) CENTCOM-TEMPO-INCREMENT-C263 (55 vs 53) + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-VALIDATES-IRAN-DOCTRINE-C261 CARRIES + PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO-C262-CAPS-US-KINETIC CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVAL-C263-CAPS-IRAN-KINETIC-CONVERSELY — Iran choosing legal-codification over Hormuz-kinetic in ~48h post-ADNOC pattern; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) SAUDI-BRACING-CARRIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-HARDENS-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 + HOUTHI-JAZAN-STRIKE-C263-RED-SEA-KINETIC-CONTINUATION — third-chokepoint kinetic-active while Hormuz-proper paused; Lock-10 (Leadership) SNSC-12-OF-13-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA-LATE-JULY-CLAIM-C262-PARTIALLY-RESOLVED-BY-MEHR-VIDEO-C263 + MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-QUALITY-UPGRADES-BUT-HEALTH-CRISIS-CONTEXT-SURFACES + HAJIDELIGANI-CARRIES + OMAN-STRESS-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION-C262-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 = INSTITUTIONAL-CONSOLIDATION-SIGNAL — Iran-internal-fracture NOT widening at parliament-committee-approval-tier (no-opposition-recorded); Mojtaba-visibility upgrades but under defensive-context; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-END-AUGUST → EDISON-SEPTEMBER CARRIES + Ras-Laffan-full-ops-not-before-end-August + ADCOP-STRIKE-RISK-CARRIES + WEST-EAST-2027-LONG-TERM-SUBSTITUTION-CARRIES + JAZAN-400K-BPD-FIRE-EXTINGUISHED-NO-INJURIES-C263 (SW-Saudi-refinery-tier-added-to-target-list). Critical 0-8h Mon-Aug-10-evening + 0-16h Tue-Aug-11-open + 0-24h Tue-Aug-11-EOD + 0-48h Wed-Aug-12: (a) Whether Iran parliament advances Strategic-Action-Plan to floor-vote and provision-specific-approval (committee-approved-general-outlines → floor-vote sequence-timing next-7-21-days); (b) Whether Trump-low-keying-doctrine holds through Tue-Aug-11 or reverts on fresh-Iran-provocation or parliament-floor-vote-advance; (c) Whether Araghchi walks back or maintains "no-talks"-compensation-precondition; (d) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes; (e) Whether Mecca-pact Article-1-collective-defence invoked in response to Jazan-strike (invocation-window-tight 24-72h post-strike); (f) Whether Turkey + Pakistan issue statements on Jazan-strike Mon-Aug-10-evening or Tue-Aug-11; (g) Whether Israel executes signaled-third-strike or defers on Pentagon-stockpile-cap; (h) Whether Netanyahu air-force-ceremony hardening translates to operational-action or remains rhetorical; (i) Whether Houthi second-strike on Saudi energy-infrastructure Mon-Tue window; (j) Whether Iraqi-militia-Sept-30-flexible-deadline holds through-week without-rupture; (k) Whether Bahrain UNSC leverages Parliament-approval + Houthi-Jazan + ADNOC-cumulative for fresh vote; (l) Whether IAEA Grossi issues Aug-10/11 statement; (m) Whether UAE announces coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening post-parliament-committee-approval; (n) Whether Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession; (o) Whether Mojtaba appears in verified-recent-dated-visual (Mehr-Aug-9 was undated); (p) Whether Iran health-condition-of-Mojtaba surfaces via alternative-verified-channel; (q) Tue-Aug-11 EIA STEO release; (r) Wed-Aug-12 EIA weekly SPR figures; (s) Whether P&I insurance immediate-repricing Tue-Aug-11 escalates fixture-cancellation cascade; (t) Whether fresh Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic materializes ~72h post-ADNOC; (u) Whether Trump modulates Mon-evening/Tue-morning Truth Social with updated stance on parliament-approval or Jazan-strike; (v) Whether Iran ADCOP-strike materializes as second-order Pezeshkian-doctrine-consistency signal; (w) Fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi statement window.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C262 → C263 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN PARLIAMENT NSC + FOREIGN POLICY COMMITTEE APPROVES STRATEGIC-ACTION-PLAN GENERAL FRAMEWORK Mon-Aug-10 per Prokerala + TASS + APA + Mezha + New Kerala + Morung Express + DNP India — "approved without opposition"; NSC-committee-tier codification-track ADVANCES from C262 "under review" → C263 "committee-approved-general-outlines"; INSTITUTIONAL PROMOTION; floor-vote next 7-21 days window.

• 🟡🔴 MOJTABA VIDEO RELEASED BY MEHR NEWS Sun-Aug-9 per Israel Hayom + ANI + Siasat + Business Standard + Gateway Pundit + UA News + The Business Standard — 12-second undated video, first-ever publicly-released; black turban + light-gray clothing; DEFENSIVE-RESPONSE to Israeli-critical-health-media-claim; PARTIAL RESOLUTION of 14+ cycle Mojtaba-visibility-crisis; still no verified date/location; authenticity + freshness + health-condition NOT resolved.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI DRONE STRIKE ON ARAMCO JAZAN REFINERY (400K BPD) Sun-Aug-9 per NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + CBC + WaPo + Washington Times + Reuters via Investing.com + Wikipedia — Saree "targeted with drone, strike was precise"; fire extinguished, no injuries; 2 DAYS AFTER Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signing — FIRST POST-MECCA-PACT KINETIC-STRIKE ON SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE; tests Article-1-collective-defence-clause invocation.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BRENT $84.18 MON-AUG-10 OPEN +0.75% / THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION OF GAINS per Trading Economics + CNBC + Al Jazeera — C262 UPPER-MID-BAND FORECAST VALIDATED; Trump-"low-keying"-C262 did NOT dampen; escalation-premium reasserts; third-consecutive-session-gains = structural-upward-drift.

• 🔴 CENTCOM 55 VESSELS REDIRECTED (+2 vs C262 53) + 2-DISABLED + 2-BOARDED + 30+ HUMANITARIAN + 20+ WARSHIPS per ANI + CNBC + Tribune India + Outlook + Iran International + New Kerala — steady-state 1-2 vessel/day redirection-rate; Trump-low-keying-frame preserves enforcement-tempo without kinetic-escalation.

• 🟢🟡 TRUMP MON-AUG-10 REITERATES NO-TOLLS "I'M NOT GOING TO LET THEM CHARGE" per CNBC + Al Jazeera — companion to Sunday low-keying doctrine; Hormuz-tolls-red-line REAFFIRMED.

• 🟡 NO C263 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC IN HORMUZ-PROPER — UKMTO Mon window clean; Iran-side Hormuz-pause extends ~48h since ADNOC Aug-8; Houthi-Red-Sea-Jazan-C263 substitutes for Hormuz-kinetic-continuation.

• 🔴🔴🔴 ISRAEL "SIGNALS READINESS FOR THIRD STRIKE" per Fox News + Netanyahu air-force-ceremony "war has not ended" — signaling-only, no execution; Pentagon-21-day-memo-C262 CAPS operationally.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQI MILITIA DISARMAMENT SEPT-30 DEADLINE "FLEXIBLE" per Shia Coordination Framework via Critical Threats Aug-7 — Kataib Hezbollah + HHN + KSS refusing; Al-Ameri-mediation-frame CARRIES; no-C263-rupture EXTENDS.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP "LOW KEYING IT" ECONOMIC-PRESSURE DOCTRINE C262 CARRIES — Mon-Aug-10-no-tolls-reaffirmation EXTENDS.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI FORMAL "NO ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS" + COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION C262 CARRIES — Mon-Aug-10-Al-Jazeera-restatement CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN PARLIAMENT DRAFT BILL 4-PROVISIONS C262 CARRIES + COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 EXTENDS.

• 🟡🔴 PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA "LATE-JULY MEETING" CLAIM C262 CARRIES + MEHR-VIDEO-C263 PARTIALLY-RESOLVES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 PENTAGON 21-DAY WEAPONS-PRODUCTION MEMO C262 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN FORMAL CLAIM OF ADNOC-STRIKE Aug-8/9 C261 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI ARTICLE FIVE OF 14-POINT MoU C261 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ADNOC OFFICIAL CUMULATIVE 16 VESSELS + 1 KILLED + 20 INJURED per Al Jazeera Aug-10-reference (updated from 15 C261 with ADNOC-Aug-8 being 16th event per Al Jazeera Aug-10 backfill).

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 OMAN FM PUBLIC CONDEMNATION OF IRAN C261 CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 MECCA PACT EGYPT-EXPANSION SIGNAL C261 CARRIES + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263-TESTS-ARTICLE-1-INVOCATION-WINDOW.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MISSILE STRIKE ON ADNOC TANKER Aug-8 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 SNSC ZOLGHADR 6-DEMAND MAXIMALIST LIST C260 CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 CODIFIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 53 → 55 VESSELS REDIRECTED + 30-HUMANITARIAN + F-35C SORTIES C260 CARRIES + 2-VESSEL-INCREMENT-C263.

• 🟢🟡 VP VANCE Aug-8 "MAX OIL FLOW" C260 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "HORMUZ IRRELEVANT IN 2 YEARS" C260 CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 TURKEY FM DISCLAIMER C260 CARRIES + EGYPT-EXPANSION C261 EXTENDS + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263-TESTS-MECCA-CLAUSE.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN FM ARAGHCHI "MUSLIM UNITY" COUNTER + ARTICLE-FIVE-C261 + "NO-TALKS"-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION-C262 EXTENDS.

• 🟡 IRGC-AEROSPACE SEPARATE-TRACK C260 CARRIES — no-fresh-C263 print.

• 🔴🔴🔴 ZAMIR FREEZES MAJOR GENERAL APPOINTMENTS TO EARLY 2027 C260 CARRIES + NETANYAHU-AIR-FORCE-CEREMONY-C263-EXTENDS.

• 🟢 ITALY FM TAJANI-ARAGHCHI CALL C260 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT + EGYPT-EXPANSION-C261 CARRIES + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263-TESTS-ARTICLE-1.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE MID-AUGUST + EDISON-SEPTEMBER EXTENSION CARRIES + RAS-LAFFAN-FULL-OPS-NOT-BEFORE-END-AUGUST.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTED-MoU CARRIES — Mojtaba-13th-cycle NOW resolves-partially-with-Mehr-Aug-9-video-C263 + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction-C262 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ PM AL-ZAIDI MILITARY-HIGH-ALERT + AL AMERI DEFERRAL + SEPT-30-FLEXIBLE-C263 CARRIES — no-C263-rupture.

• 🔴🔴🔴 SAUDI "BRACING FOR MULTIPLE COORDINATED ATTACKS" CARRIES + JAZAN-C263-MATERIALIZES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + TRUMP-REJECTION CARRIES + "ON VERGE OF FINALISING" C263 CARRIES BUT REOPENING-CONDITIONAL.

• 🟢🟡 TRUMP "MOVING ALONG" CARRIES from C258/C259 — superseded by Trump-"low-keying-it"-doctrine-C262 + Mon-Aug-10-no-tolls-reaffirmation C263.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ-ZAMIR BLUTH CRISIS + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE CARRIES + NETANYAHU-AIR-FORCE-CEREMONY-C263.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY AUG-5 + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION CARRIES + JAZAN-C263-DRONE-STRIKE-ESCALATION-CONTINUATION.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL + JPOST-"WITH OR WITHOUT DEAL" CARRIES + Pentagon-stockpile-depletion-C262-caps + Air-Force-Ceremony-C263-hardens-rhetoric.

• 🔴🔴🔴 REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" C258+ + Trump AUG-6 "MASSIVE AMOUNTS" COUNTER + APRIL-PRECEDENT-BOUNDED + PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO-C262 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES + TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-C262-DE-EMPHASIZES + MON-AUG-10-NO-TOLLS-REAFFIRMS.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — no Pentagon response 11+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG + OPEC+ SEP-HIKE + IRAQ-TURKEY 170-200K + 750K FLOOR CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 (135 co-sponsors) HISTORICAL CARRIES; PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263 + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-16 + OMAN-CONDEMN → still no fresh vote initiated C263.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 36th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-10 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED + IRAQ-KPLER 1 MB/D + 30-HUMANITARIAN-PERMITTED CARRIES.

• 🟡 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE — PARTIALLY RESOLVED VIA MEHR-VIDEO-AUG-9-C263 (undated + defensive-context + Israeli-critical-health-media-claim response) + PEZESHKIAN-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION-C262 CARRIES.

• 🔴 SPR ~304.8M MB / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+2 days).

• 🔴 UAE ADCOP WEST-EAST-PIPELINE 50% COMPLETE, EARLY-2027 TARGET, 3.6 MBD BY MID-2027 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴 BAB-EL-MANDEB TRAFFIC 34% DECLINE via Kpler + 2 SAUDI TANKERS (Xin Long Yang + Rodos) REVERSING-COURSE POST-HOUTHI-BLOCKADE-DECLARATION — third-chokepoint-severe C263 continues.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 164 / Ceasefire STATUS: PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-STRATEGIC-ACTION-PLAN-C263 + MOJTABA-VIDEO-PARTIALLY-SURFACES-C263 + HOUTHI-JAZAN-KINETIC-C263 + BRENT-MON-OPEN-$84.18-UPSIDE-VALIDATED + CENTCOM-55-VESSELS-INCREMENT-C263 + TRUMP-MON-NO-TOLLS-REAFFIRMED. C263 confirms: (a) Iran-side institutional-hardening ACCELERATES at parliament-committee-approval-tier (bill-approved-general-outlines-without-opposition = first-institutional-ratification of codification-track); (b) Mojtaba-visibility-crisis PARTIALLY-RESOLVES via Mehr-undated-video but under-defensive-Israeli-critical-health-claim-context; (c) Houthi-Iran-axis TESTS Mecca-collective-defence-clause OPERATIONALLY within 48h of pact-signing (Jazan-drone-strike); (d) Oil-market REPRICES upward despite Trump-low-keying-restraint (Brent Mon-open $84.18 = C262-upper-mid-band-validated); (e) Blockade-enforcement tempo tightens 2-vessel-increment (53 → 55) at steady-state; (f) Trump Mon-Aug-10 no-tolls-red-line REAFFIRMED as companion to Sunday low-keying; (g) Iraq-militia-Sept-30-flexible + no-C263-rupture. War cost $37.5B+ CARRIES. C262 → C263 (~24h delta Sun-evening-CEST → Mon-evening-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C263 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 + ARAGHCHI-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION-C262-CARRIES + TRUMP-MON-AUG-10-NO-TOLLS-REAFFIRMED; bilateral-track SUSPENDED with intermediaries "still trying"
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-air-force-ceremony-C263 "war has not ended" + Fox-News-Israel-signals-third-strike + Netanyahu-JPost-hardened CARRIES + Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES + PENTAGON-21-DAY-WEAPONS-MEMO-C262-CAPS ISRAELI-ROUND-2 OPERATIONALLY CARRIES
• 🟢🟡🔴 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement "on verge of finalising" per Al-Jazeera-Aug-10; coordinates-agreed + joint-coordination-center CARRIES; ARAGHCHI-"NO-TALKS"-C262 undermines; OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION-C261 CARRIES
• 🟢🟡🔴 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure end-Aug → September-Edison-extension CARRIES; Ras-Laffan-full-ops-not-before-end-August CARRIES
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Netanyahu-air-force-ceremony-C263-hardens-rhetoric + JPost + Katz-Zamir-Bluth CARRIES + Zamir-2027-C260 CARRIES + Pentagon-stockpile-C262-caps
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-hardened + IAEA-no-staff 36th cycle; Pentagon-stockpile-C262 caps Israeli-independent-strike-capacity
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint + Saudi-retaliation — JAZAN-DRONE-STRIKE-C263 (400K BPD REFINERY, FIRE-EXTINGUISHED, NO INJURIES) + BAB-EL-MANDEB-TRAFFIC-34%-DECLINE + 2-SAUDI-TANKERS-REVERSING (Xin Long Yang + Rodos) — Wafa/Daisy + Saudi-Hodeidah + 12-missile-retaliation CARRIES; Post-Mecca-Pact FIRST-KINETIC-STRIKE ON SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE — Article-1-collective-defence-clause invocation-window opens 24-72h
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iraq-front — PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert + Al Ameri "special ops postpone" + SEPT-30-DEADLINE-FLEXIBLE-per-Shia-Coordination-Framework-Aug-7 CARRIES; no-C263-rupture; Kataib Hezbollah + HHN + KSS refusing disarmament
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Sunni-bloc-formation-leg — Mecca Joint Defence Agreement CARRIES + Turkey-disclaimer + Egypt-expansion-signal C261 CARRIES + HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263-TESTS-ARTICLE-1-OPERATIONAL-INVOCATION
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 UAE-direct-target-leg — ADNOC-strike-Aug-8 + cumulative 16-vessels + 1-KIA + 20-injured CARRIES; no-fresh-C263 UAE-coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening announcement

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iran Parliament NSC + Foreign Policy Committee approves Strategic Action Plan general framework Mon-Aug-10 (Prokerala + TASS + APA + Mezha + New Kerala + Morung Express + DNP India)
• 🟡🔴 NEW Mojtaba video released by Mehr News Sun-Aug-9 — 12-second undated video (Israel Hayom + ANI + Siasat + Business Standard + Gateway Pundit + UA News)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Houthi drone strike on Aramco Jazan refinery (400K bpd) Sun-Aug-9 — fire extinguished, no injuries (NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + CBC + WaPo + Washington Times + Reuters + Wikipedia)
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Brent $84.18 Mon-Aug-10 open +0.75% / third consecutive session of gains (Trading Economics + CNBC + Al Jazeera)
• 🔴 NEW CENTCOM 55 vessels redirected (+2 vs C262 53) + 20+ warships deployed (ANI + CNBC + Tribune India + Outlook + Iran International + New Kerala)
• 🟢🟡 NEW Trump Mon-Aug-10 reiterates no-tolls "I'm not going to let them charge" (CNBC + Al Jazeera)
• 🟡 NEW No C263 fresh maritime kinetic in Hormuz-proper — UKMTO Mon window clean
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Israel signals readiness for third strike per Fox News + Netanyahu air-force-ceremony "war has not ended"
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iraqi militia disarmament Sept-30 deadline "flexible" per Shia Coordination Framework (Critical Threats Aug-7)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Trump "low keying it" economic-pressure doctrine (C262 Axios)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Araghchi formal "no ongoing negotiations" + compensation-precondition (C262)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Pezeshkian formal claim of ADNOC-strike (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Araghchi Article-Five 14-point MoU detail (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES ADNOC cumulative 16-vessels + 1-KIA + 20-injured (updated per Al Jazeera Aug-10)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Oman FM public condemnation of Iran (C261)
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES Mecca Egypt-expansion signal (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iraq dual-track deferral detail (C261-C262)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Pentagon 21-day weapons-production memo (C262)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC missile strike on ADNOC tanker Aug-8
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES SNSC Zolghadr 6-demand maximalist list
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES CENTCOM 30-humanitarian + F-35C sorties
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES VP Vance "max oil flow"
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Bessent "Hormuz irrelevant 2 years"
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES Turkey FM disclaimer + NATO Article-5 mirror
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC-Aerospace separate-track
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Zamir 2027-freeze
• 🟢 CARRIES Italy FM Tajani-Araghchi call
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES QatarEnergy force-majeure mid-August + Ras Laffan not full-ops before end-August
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth crisis
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran Gharibabadi 4-commitment + Zolghadr-expansion + Parliament-bill-C262 codifies + committee-approved-C263 EXTENDS
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Pezeshkian SNSC 12/13 voted MoU + Mojtaba-Mehr-video-C263-partially-resolves
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu CBS uranium-endorsement + JPost hardening + Air-Force-Ceremony-C263
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US munitions + Trump-"massive amounts" — WaPo-CNN-tier institutional-confirmation
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 shootdown Aug-3
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 Aug + OPEC+ Sep-hike + Iraq-Turkey 170-200K
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff (36th cycle)
• 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 + Khasab-18nm Aug-8 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 + ADNOC Aug-8 CARRIES
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC vote C263

• All Iran/Israel/Lebanon/US KIA/wounded figures CARRY unchanged from C262 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~24h window)
• ADNOC 1 crew killed + 20 injured across 16 vessels since Feb-28 (Al Jazeera Aug-10 backfill: ADNOC Aug-8 = 16th event)
• Total war deaths: 8,981–18,315 CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wiki / 3,636 HRANA / 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,333+ killed CARRIES
• US KIA/wounded: 18 KIA / 687 wounded CARRIES
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss: ~$1B / 24+ airframes CARRIES
• Jazan-refinery-strike Aug-9: no injuries confirmed (fire extinguished per Saudi energy ministry)

Net ceasefire trajectory C263: C262 "stable-but-frozen" thesis proves premature — C263 evidence shows Iran-side institutional-hardening ACCELERATING (parliament-committee-approval) + Houthi-Iran-axis TESTING Mecca-clause OPERATIONALLY (Jazan-strike within 48h post-signing) + oil-market REPRICING upward despite Trump-restraint (Brent $84.18 third-consecutive-gains) + Israel-signaling-third-strike (Fox News + air-force-ceremony) + Mojtaba-visibility resolving only-partially-under-defensive-context. US-side alone holds restraint-frame steady (blockade-tempo increment + no-tolls-red-line). Net: escalation-forces are outrunning restraint-frames at institutional + kinetic + price + leadership + rhetorical layers, while US-side operates at enforcement-tempo-steady without kinetic-escalation. Trump-restraint provides ceiling on kinetic-escalation but does not slow institutional-hardening trajectory. Revised C263 base-case 5-15% Tue-Wed Aug-11-12 modified-partial announcement (requires all-of Trump-restraint-holds + parliament-floor-vote-defers + Israel-third-strike-defers + Iran-Oman-final-statement-publishes + Mecca-pact-Article-1-non-invocation + Houthi-second-strike-defers), 30-45% Tue-Wed-Thu slippage into Aug-13+ (parliament-institutional-track continues + oil-market repricing continues + no-fresh-kinetic + intermediary-slow-work), 40-60% deal-collapse or escalation-cycle tail (parliament-floor-vote passes on approved-general-outlines + Israel-third-strike-executes + Houthi-second-strike + Mecca-Article-1-invocation-attempt + oil-crosses-$88 + Netanyahu-air-force-ceremony-rhetoric-translates-to-action). Tue-Aug-11 close Brent watch — if $85+ sustains through week, Trump-restraint-frame at higher-risk of shifting. Wed-Aug-12 EIA weekly SPR release — critical for market-signal.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: ~94 vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES + C263 no NEW-Mon-Aug-10 kinetic through Mon-evening-CEST); ADNOC official-cumulative-count 16 ADNOC vessels since Feb-28 (backfilled per Al Jazeera Aug-10: ADNOC-Aug-8 = 16th attack) with 1 crew KIA + 20 injured; 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi-blockade CARRIES; C263 window (~24h) fresh: NONE in Hormuz-proper; HOUTHI-JAZAN-REFINERY-STRIKE (drone) Sun-Aug-9 = SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (not vessel) — Iran-side Hormuz-proper kinetic-pause extends ~48h, Houthi Red-Sea kinetic-continuation-C263.

Neutral-state-infrastructure attack marker (C263): ADNOC-strike + Ras Laffan (Qatar) March-18 + Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 + JAZAN REFINERY (SAUDI) AUG-9-C263 = 4 confirmed direct-strikes on neutral-Gulf-state energy-infrastructure since war-onset. Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 CROWNS ADNOC-strike as formal-Iran-doctrine; HOUTHI-JAZAN-C263 EXTENDS the doctrine via proxy-axis — first post-Mecca-pact strike on Saudi refinery infrastructure. Watch: fresh strikes on Yanbu, Ras Tanura, ADCOP terminals.

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C263; CARRIES.

4. Oil Prices

Sunday-evening/Monday-open reprice C263: Brent Mon-Aug-10 open $84.18 = C262-median-anchor-validated at $84 mid-forecast. Third-consecutive session of gains implies structural-upward-drift not driven by single-event but persistent conflict-premium. Al Jazeera framing: "Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of Hormuz." Trump-low-keying-restraint did NOT dampen Mon-open despite Sunday doctrine-signal — Araghchi-no-talks + Parliament-committee-approval + Houthi-Jazan + ADNOC-cumulative prevailed. Tue-Aug-11 EIA STEO release + Wed-Aug-12 EIA weekly SPR = next data-point-tests. Fesharaki $150-200 tail-scenario continues to require chokepoint-completely-shut plus infrastructure-strike-wave — not activated C263 but Jazan-strike-C263 marginally advances toward infrastructure-strike-wave-vector.

Geopolitical-directional statements C263: Trump Mon "I'm not going to let them charge" (no-tolls-red-line) + Sunday "low keying it" = soft-downside-restraint; Parliament-committee-approval "strategic action plan approved without opposition" = hard-upside-institutional; Netanyahu air-force-ceremony "war has not yet ended" = hard-upside-Israeli-signal; Iran-Oman-agreement "on verge of finalising" = neutral-conditional; Houthi-Saree Jazan strike "precise" = hard-upside-third-chokepoint.

5. SPR

IEA coordinated release status (CARRIES C260-C262):

6. Bypass Infrastructure

GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable CARRIES

Long-term-substitution-path (Bessent-doctrine-validated-C261): UAE West-East-2027-target (3.6 Mbd by mid-2027) would reduce GAP by ~1.4 mb/d; combined-with-planned-ADCOP-expansion + Saudi-E-W-Yanbu-port-upgrades could realistically reduce GAP by ~2-3 mb/d over 24 months → projected 2028 GAP: ~9-11 mb/d unbridgeable (still structural but improving). Bessent-"Hormuz-irrelevant-in-2-years"-doctrine + Trump-Mon-Aug-10-no-tolls-C263 is directionally-consistent with UAE-C261-timeline but numerically-aggressive. JAZAN-STRIKE-C263 raises SW-Saudi-vector-risk for Yanbu-port-cap and Saudi-E-W-pipeline-terminus-adjacent-infrastructure.

7. Maritime Insurance

8. Shadow Fleet

C263 window (Mon-evening-CEST ~24h delta): No fresh C263 seizures, designations, or major enforcement actions. All prior-cycle shadow-fleet material CARRIES.

Standing narrative: Shadow fleet ~1,400 vessels (25% of global tanker fleet) CARRIES. Iran-affiliated + Russia-sanctions-evasion + Venezuela-Cuba networks CARRIES. IRGC friendly-fire on own shadow tankers documented CARRIES (Arctic Metagaz-type incidents). GRU/Wagner militarization signals CARRIES. Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 provides doctrinal-cover for future IRGC-Aerospace-authorized-strikes on any commercial vessel; Parliament-committee-approved-C263 formalizes vessel-ban-authority through institutional-tier — combined effect: broader IRGC-freehand + parliamentary-legal-cover for shadow-fleet + hostile-vessel enforcement. Operation Southern Spear (US) — 10+ tanker seizures since Dec-2025 CARRIES. ~300M barrels unsold on shadow tankers at sea CARRIES per prior enforcement-effectiveness estimate.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C263 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Iran Parliament NSC + Foreign Policy Committee approves Strategic Action Plan general framework Mon-Aug-10 (WITHOUT OPPOSITION) per Prokerala + TASS + APA + Mezha + New Kerala + Morung Express + DNP India — institutional-codification-track PROMOTED from C262 "committee-review" → C263 "committee-approved-general-outlines"; 4 provisions maintained (hostile-vessel bans + compensation-precondition + 20%-cargo-fine + armed-forces-oversight); floor-vote next 7-21 days window.
2. Mojtaba video released by Mehr News Agency Sun-Aug-9 — 12-second undated video, first-ever publicly-released Mojtaba-video since March-8 succession; black turban + light-gray clothing sitting on carpet talking with others; defensive-response to Israeli-media claims of Mojtaba critical-health condition; PARTIAL RESOLUTION of 14+ cycle Mojtaba-visibility-crisis but authenticity + freshness + health-implications NOT resolved.
3. Houthi drone strike on Aramco Jazan refinery (400K bpd) Sun-Aug-9 per NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + CBC + WaPo + Washington Times + Reuters + Wikipedia — fire extinguished, no injuries; stated response to Saudi drone-overflight of Saada + Hajjah; 2 DAYS AFTER Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signing (Aug-7) = FIRST POST-MECCA-PACT KINETIC-STRIKE ON SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE — tests Article-1-collective-defence-clause invocation.
4. Brent $84.18 Mon-Aug-10 open +0.75% third-consecutive session-gains per Trading Economics + CNBC + Al Jazeera — C262 upper-mid-band forecast VALIDATED; Trump-low-keying-C262 did NOT dampen; escalation-premium reasserts; third-consecutive-session pattern = structural-upward-drift.
5. CENTCOM 55 vessels redirected (+2 vs C262 53) + 20+ warships deployed per ANI + CNBC + Tribune India + Outlook + Iran International + New Kerala — steady-state 1-2 vessel/day redirection-rate CONTINUES; Trump-low-keying-frame preserves enforcement-tempo.
6. Trump Mon-Aug-10 reiterates no-tolls "I'm not going to let them charge" per CNBC + Al Jazeera — companion to Sunday low-keying doctrine; Hormuz-tolls-red-line REAFFIRMED as structural US-position.
7. Israel signals readiness for third strike per Fox News + Netanyahu air-force-ceremony "war has not ended" — signaling-only, no execution; Pentagon-21-day-memo-C262 CAPS operationally.
8. Iraqi militia disarmament Sept-30 deadline "flexible" per Shia Coordination Framework (Critical Threats Aug-7 extends to C263) — Kataib Hezbollah + HHN + KSS refusing; Al-Ameri-mediation-frame CARRIES; no-C263-rupture EXTENDS.
9. No C263 fresh Hormuz-proper maritime kinetic — UKMTO Mon window clean; Iran-side Hormuz-pause extends ~48h since ADNOC-Aug-8; Houthi-Red-Sea-Jazan-C263 substitutes for Hormuz-kinetic-continuation.
10. ADNOC cumulative attack count backfilled to 16 vessels per Al Jazeera Aug-10 — ADNOC-Aug-8 recorded as 16th ADNOC attack (up from 15 baseline C261).

(b) Structural Locks Status (C263)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🔴 VOLATILE + BRENT-MON-$84.18-UPSIDE-VALIDATED-C263 + THIRD-CONSECUTIVE-GAINS-SESSION — Trump-restraint offset by escalation-premium reassertion; C262-median-anchor $84 validated at Mon-open. TIGHTENING (upside-drift).
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES + JAZAN-400K-BPD-FIRE-EXTINGUISHED-NO-INJURIES-C263 — Iraq-Turkey + OPEC+ Sep + CPC + Kpler ~1 + 30-humanitarian-permitted CARRIES; Jazan-strike disrupted-minimally short-term. LOOSENING (marginal); Jazan-flag added.
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴🔴 HOLDING + DEEPLY-DEEPENED-C263 — Parliament-committee-approval-C263 20%-cargo-fine + hostile-vessel-bans + armed-forces-oversight advances institutional-tier; Jazan-C263 Red-Sea-insurance-repricing separately; P&I re-entry-probability into Q4-2026 base-case, Q1-2027 conservative, Q2-2027 pessimistic. TIGHTENING (deeply-deepened-C263).
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 DEEPENS — 20% cargo-fine + armed-forces oversight-clause hardens crew-refusal case; fixture cancellation-acceleration expected Tue-Aug-11. TIGHTENING (deepened).
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴🔴🔴 PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVAL-C263 + ARAGHCHI-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION-C262 + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE + ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + US-BAN-FAULT-LINE + MECCA + EGYPT-EXPANSION + JAZAN-C263 — Iran-side codification-track (Zolghadr → Article-Five → parliament-bill → committee-approval → floor-vote-next) formalizing deal-terminal-configuration; Trump-low-keying provides time-buffer but no restart-path. TIGHTENING (severe-deepened-C263).
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 NETANYAHU-JPOST-HARDENED + IAEA-36TH-CYCLE + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + NETANYAHU-AIR-FORCE-CEREMONY-C263 + ISRAEL-THIRD-STRIKE-SIGNAL-C263 + PENTAGON-STOCKPILE-BOUNDS-C262 — Netanyahu Air-Force-Ceremony hardens rhetoric; Fox News third-strike-signal; Pentagon-C262 institutional-confirmation caps Israel-round-2 operationally. TIGHTENING (rhetorical-hardening + operational-cap).
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE + SAUDI-HODEIDAH + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEFERRAL-FLEXIBLE-C263 + MECCA + TURKEY-DISCLAIMER + EGYPT-EXPANSION + ADNOC-STRIKE + UAE-DIRECT-TARGET + JAZAN-C263-RED-SEA-EXPANSION. TIGHTENING (Red-Sea-expansion-active).
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED + PAKISTAN-CAPABILITY + CENTCOM-TEMPO-INCREMENT-C263 (53 → 55) + F-35C-SORTIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-VALIDATES + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-VALIDATES-IRAN-DOCTRINE + PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO-C262-CAPS-US-KINETIC + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVAL-C263-CODIFIES-IRAN-DOCTRINE + IRAN-KINETIC-PAUSE-EXTENDS-C263 (~48h since ADNOC). TIGHTENING (mixed: US-side capped-tempo-tightens, Iran-side kinetic-paused-in-Hormuz-institutional-active).
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI-WAFA-DAISY + SAUDI-HODEIDAH + SAUDI-BRACING + ADNOC-STRIKE + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-HARDENS + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263 + JAZAN-C263-STRIKE + BAB-EL-MANDEB-34%-TRAFFIC-DECLINE (Kpler) + 2-SAUDI-TANKERS-REVERSING (Xin Long Yang + Rodos). TIGHTENING (severe; Red-Sea-expansion-active).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13 + MOJTABA-VIDEO-PARTIALLY-RESOLVED-C263 (defensive-Israeli-health-context) + ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + ARAGHCHI-IMPEACHMENT-PREP + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + ISRAELI-KATZ-ZAMIR-BLUTH + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + PEZESHKIAN-"WILL-NOT-YIELD" + PEZESHKIAN-PERSONALLY-OWNS-ADNOC-STRIKE-C261 + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT-C261 + OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION + ARAGHCHI-"NO-TALKS"-C262 + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-APPROVED-C263-INSTITUTIONAL-CONSOLIDATION-SIGNAL + PEZESHKIAN-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION-C262 CARRIES — Iran-internal-fracture NARROWLY-CONSOLIDATED at parliament-committee-approval-tier (no-opposition-recorded); Mojtaba-visibility upgrades but under defensive-context. TIGHTENING (Iran-side narrow-consolidation; leadership-visibility-quality-upgrades).
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴🔴 QATAR-END-AUGUST + EDISON-SEPTEMBER + $20B-LOST + 21-CARGOES + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-16 + ADCOP-ELEVATED-RISK + WEST-EAST-2027-VALIDATED + JAZAN-C263-400K-BPD-FIRE-EXTINGUISHED-NO-INJURIES + SW-SAUDI-VECTOR-RISK-RAISED + RAS-LAFFAN-FULL-OPS-NOT-BEFORE-END-AUGUST — Jazan-strike raises SW-Saudi vector; force-majeure structural CARRIES; long-term-substitution visible. TIGHTENING (Jazan-flag; end-August-Qatar-uncertainty).

(c) Critical Watch (Next Cycle C264 Tue-Aug-11)

1. Iran parliament floor-vote scheduling — committee-approved-general-outlines → floor-vote sequence-timing 7-21-days-window; provision-specific-approval next test.
2. Mecca-pact Article-1-collective-defence invocation window — 24-72h post-Jazan-strike; Turkey + Pakistan statements Tue-Aug-11.
3. Trump Truth Social response to Parliament-approval + Jazan-strike — whether Sunday-low-keying doctrine holds through Mon-evening / Tue-morning.
4. Brent Tue-Aug-11 close — if $85+ sustains, restraint-frame at higher-risk of shifting; if $82-83 retreats, Trump-restraint-effective retroactively.
5. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication — "on verge of finalising" per Al Jazeera Aug-10 vs Araghchi-"no-talks" tension.
6. Israel-third-strike execution — Netanyahu air-force-ceremony translation to operational-action or continued signaling-only.
7. Second Houthi strike on Saudi energy infrastructure Mon-Tue-window — Yanbu-adjacent or Ras Tanura vectors.
8. Iraqi militia Sept-30-flexible deadline holds through-week — Kataib Hezbollah + HHN + KSS refusal-rate.
9. Bahrain UNSC vote-attempt leveraging Parliament-approval + Jazan-strike + ADNOC-cumulative-16 + Oman-condemn — political-window for fresh vote.
10. IAEA Grossi Aug-10/11 statement — 36th-cycle silence pattern-break.
11. UAE ADCOP-hardening announcement or coalition-request — post-Parliament-committee-approval institutional-response.
12. Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession — Fidan-signal C261 timing.
13. Mojtaba fresh verified-dated-visual — Mehr-Aug-9 was undated; state-media-verified-timeline test.
14. Tue-Aug-11 EIA STEO release — Brent forecast update in war-context.
15. Wed-Aug-12 EIA weekly SPR release — physical-delivery data-point critical for market-signal.
16. P&I insurance immediate-repricing Tue-Aug-11 — parliament-approval + Jazan fixture-cancellation cascade risk.
17. Fresh Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic ~72h post-ADNOC-Aug-8 — Iran-side kinetic-pause vs resumption inflection.
18. Fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi statement window — separate-track testing.

(d) Net Assessment

C262's "stable-but-frozen" thesis proved premature at C263 — the escalation-forces outran restraint-frames at institutional + kinetic + price + leadership + rhetorical layers simultaneously. On the Iran side, the parliament NSC + Foreign Policy Committee's approval of the Strategic Action Plan general framework (without opposition) advances the codification-track from committee-review to committee-approved-general-outlines. This is the first institutional ratification of the Zolghadr → Article-Five → parliament-bill → compensation-precondition sequence, promoting the framework toward eventual floor-vote and provision-specific-approval. The Mehr News agency's release of the first-ever undated 12-second Mojtaba video partially-resolves the 14+ cycle visibility-crisis but under-defensive-Israeli-critical-health-media-claim-context, meaning the visibility-quality upgrades while the underlying leadership-crisis-signal narrows only narrowly. The Houthi drone strike on Aramco's Jazan refinery within 48 hours of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signing is a direct operational test of the Article-1 collective-defence clause — the response window is 24-72 hours, and Turkey + Pakistan statements Tuesday-Wednesday will define whether the pact demonstrates hollowness or triggers catastrophic-escalation-cascade.

On the market side, Brent's Monday $84.18 open with a third consecutive session of gains validated the C262 upper-mid-band forecast and disconfirmed the thesis that Trump's Sunday "low-keying" doctrine would dampen the war premium. Escalation-forces (Araghchi-no-talks + Parliament-committee-approval + Jazan + ADNOC-cumulative-16) prevailed over restraint-forces (Trump-low-keying + Mon-no-tolls). The structural-upward-drift pattern implies that current oil pricing is not driven by single-event catalysts but by persistent institutional-hardening, and Trump-restraint operates only as a ceiling on kinetic-escalation, not as a floor on institutional-hardening. On the US side, the CENTCOM increment (53 → 55 vessels redirected, +2) and Trump Monday no-tolls red-line reaffirmation preserve the blockade-enforcement tempo at steady-state without kinetic escalation — this is the Trump-low-keying doctrine operating as designed.

Absent an exogenous circuit-breaker (Iran parliament floor-vote defers indefinitely + Mojtaba verified-dated-visual + Iran-Oman joint-statement-publishes + Mecca-pact-Article-1-non-invocation + no-second-Houthi-strike + Trump-Israel-restraint-alignment holds), the system is now trending toward a 30-45% base-case slippage into Aug-13+ with continued institutional-track escalation and 40-60% deal-collapse or escalation-cycle tail. The critical watch-points are Tuesday-Wednesday: parliament floor-vote scheduling, Mecca-pact-Article-1-clause-invocation-window closure, Brent-$85+-persistence-test, and Israel-third-strike-signaling-vs-execution decision. Key uncertainties: (i) whether Iran parliament advances Strategic Action Plan to floor-vote in near-term or defers pending Trump-restraint-optics; (ii) whether Mecca-pact demonstrates operational-hollowness or triggers escalation-cascade on Jazan-strike; (iii) whether third-consecutive Brent gains-session extends to four+ or reverses on any Trump-explicit-restart-signal; (iv) whether Mojtaba visual-proof upgrades to verified-dated status resolving the leadership-visibility-crisis fully.

Sources:

• Iran Parliament NSC Committee Approves Hormuz Bill (Prokerala)
• Iranian parliamentary committee approves bill of Strait of Hormuz (TASS)
• Iran parliament committee approves bill (APA)
• Iran committee approves Hormuz governance bill amid Oman talks (Mezha)
• Mehr releases undated Mojtaba Khamenei video (ANI)
• Mojtaba Khamenei surfaces in new footage (Israel Hayom)
• Houthis attack Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery (NBC)
• Houthi attacks kill seven, refinery targeted (Al Jazeera)
• Yemen's Houthis claim Aramco attack (NPR)
• Wikipedia — 2026 Aramco refinery attack
• Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud Hormuz (Al Jazeera Aug-10)
• Brent Crude Approaches $84 (Trading Economics)
• US reaffirms Hormuz blockade turning away 55 ships (CNBC Aug-10)
• CENTCOM 55 vessels redirected (Tribune India)
• Iran rules out talks resumption before US compensation (Spotlight)
• Iran-Oman "very close" reopening tied to US compensation (Tribune India)
• Israel signals readiness for another Iran strike (Fox News)
• Netanyahu: war has not yet ended (JPost)
• Netanyahu reportedly agreed to Gaza plan; Houthis strike Saudi coalition forces (JPost Aug-10)
• CNN Iran War live updates Aug-10 — Trump emphasizes economic pressure
• SPR level 304.8M Jul-31 (Vault Report)
• UAE says Iran attacked ADNOC vessel with missile (US News)
• UAE says Iran targeted ADNOC tanker (Al Jazeera Aug-8)
• Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (Wikipedia)
• Turkiye says Mecca defence pact not aimed at Iran (Al Jazeera Aug-8)
• Iran-Oman agreement reached (Bloomberg)
• Iran Update Aug-7 (Critical Threats)
• QatarEnergy extends LNG force majeure into mid-August (OilPrice)
• Ras Laffan LNG site may not fully resume before August (Business Standard)
• Hormuz War Risk Insurance 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• Red Sea shipping slows after Houthi attacks (The Hill)
• Can the Suez save Asian oil consumers (Al Jazeera Jul-22)
• Kpler UAE pipeline bypass (Kpler Jul-10)
• India strategic reserves 10 days (IBTimes)
• UN nuclear boss inspectors will visit Iran (Al Jazeera Jun-24)
• Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
• Wikipedia — 2026 Iran war
• Wikipedia — Mojtaba Khamenei