Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-09 · Cycle 3 (C262)

War Day: 163 | Blockade Day: 27 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-9 evening-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🟢🟡 TRUMP "WE ARE LOW KEYING IT" — ECONOMIC-PRESSURE-OVER-MILITARY DOCTRINE ANNOUNCED per Axios + Al Jazeera + RFERL + Times of Israel Aug-9 — "We are only semi-negotiating with them"; "just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money"; FIRST FORMAL TRUMP-RESPONSE TO PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-OF-ADNOC + OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION = RESTRAINT-TRACK CONFIRMED (no counter-strike; no punitive-cycle; no walk-away); partial-de-escalation-signal balancing C261 escalation-hardening | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI SUN-AUG-9: "NO ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS WITH US" + FORMAL COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION per NBC + Prokerala + IANS + Al Jazeera — "From our perspective, there can be no resumption of talks until the United States ends its violations of the MoU and makes amends for the breaches it has committed"; "The intermediaries are still making efforts to find ways to resume negotiations"; DEAL-TRACK BILATERALLY-SUSPENDED — Iran-side formally-closed-track vs Trump-side "low-keying-it" | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN PARLIAMENT DRAFT BILL DETAILS per Middle East Monitor + Al-Monitor + Anadolu + CNBC + Fars (Hormuz Letter X) — "Strategic Action for Security and Sustainable Development of Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf"; bar US/Israeli + hostile-country vessels; compensation-precondition for transit; 20% cargo-value penalties for violations; armed-forces oversight of navigation; NSC + Foreign Policy committee reviewing; specialists invited for input — INSTITUTIONAL-FORMALIZATION of ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE POSTURE | 🟡🔴 PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA "LATE-JULY MEETING" CLAIMED per Al-Monitor + US News + Tribune India + KFGO Aug-9 — state media: meeting occurred "around start of president's third year in office in late July"; covered war + economy + foreign-exchange + energy-use; Tasnim (IRGC general): Khamenei images "will be published in the future" (no timeline); Pezeshkian internal-contradiction surfaced: July-21 "interactions increasing day by day" vs early-Aug "very difficult"; 13TH-CYCLE MOJTABA-PENDING RESOLVES AS CLAIMED-MEETING-WITHOUT-PROOF — MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-CRISIS DEEPENS | 🔴🔴🔴 PENTAGON WEAPONS-PRODUCTION 21-DAY MEMO per WaPo + CNN + CNBC + Political Wire + Haaretz Aug-8/9 — Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg 21-day deadline for defense-industry acceleration-plans; Patriot + THAAD interceptor stockpiles depleted post-Iran-war; Pentagon spokesman Parnell: "the weapons our warfighters need at the pace the threat demands"; INSTITUTIONAL-RECOGNITION OF US-CAPABILITY-DEPLETION — VALIDATES C258+ MUNITIONS-CONSTRAINT FRAME | 🟡 NO C3 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC — UKMTO Sun-Aug-9 evening-CEST window clean; Kumzar Aug-6 + Khasab-18nm Aug-8 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + Sepah Navy VHF Aug-2 CARRIES | 🟡 BRENT $82.49 / WTI $77.29 CLOSE ATTRIBUTION per CNBC Aug-6 CARRIES; weekend markets closed C262 Sat/Sun; Mon-Aug-10-open watch-window HARDENED by Araghchi-no-talks + parliament-bill vs Trump-low-keying-restraint balance | 🟢🟡 SPR 304.8M mb / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES (Jul-31 data); next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+3 days) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUGUST → EDISON EXTENSION TO SEPTEMBER CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT + TURKEY-DISCLAIMER-C260 + EGYPT-EXPANSION-C261 CARRIES — no fresh C262 Egypt-formal-accession | 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ ISLAMIC RESISTANCE DEFERRAL — AL AMERI MEDIATION CARRIES from C261; no fresh C262 kinetic despite Pezeshkian-formal-claim-precedent-test | 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA GROSSI 35TH-CYCLE SILENCE CONTINUES | 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 + Khasab 18nm Aug-8 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES | Cycle: C262 (Sun-Aug-9 evening-CEST ~20:00 / Sun-early-afternoon-ET ~14:00, ~8h delta from C261)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP Grok_outputs folder lookup timed out on first attempt; retry surfaced only pre-May-2026 entries; no HORMUZ note in last 12 hours; THIRTY-FIFTH consecutive cycle: C228→C262. Reduced web sweep (~8h delta from C261) executed on: Trump-Axios-"low-keying-it" + Araghchi-"no-ongoing-negotiations" + Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-late-July-meeting-claim + parliament-draft-bill-details-Hormuz-Letter-Anadolu + Pentagon-21-day-defense-memo-WaPo-CNN + IAEA-Grossi-Aug-9 + Iraq-militia-deferral-post-C261 + UKMTO-Sun-Aug-9-window + Bahrain-UNSC-fresh-C262 + Israel-round-2-signal + Houthi-Saudi-C262 + oil-market-Fri-close-CARRIES + Qatar-Edison-September-CARRIES + Mecca-pact + Egypt-expansion-no-formal-accession + ADNOC-cumulative-C261-CARRIES + Iran-Oman-joint-statement-status.

Baseline: C261 / 2026-08-09 Sun-mid-CEST ~12:00 (PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-OF-ADNOC-STRIKE + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE-14-POINT-MoU-DETAILS + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-15-VESSELS-1-KIA-20-INJURED + OMAN-FM-PUBLIC-CONDEMNATION + MECCA-EGYPT-EXPANSION-SIGNAL + IRAQ-DUAL-TRACK-DEFERRAL-DETAIL + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-09 C262 Sun-evening-CEST ~20:00 / Sun-early-afternoon-ET ~14:00, ~8h delta from C261): C262 is a TRUMP-"LOW-KEYING-IT"-ECONOMIC-PRESSURE-DOCTRINE + ARAGHCHI-FORMAL-"NO-ONGOING-NEGOTIATIONS"-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DRAFT-BILL-DETAILS-INSTITUTIONALIZED + PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA-"LATE-JULY-MEETING"-CLAIM-WITHOUT-VISUAL-PROOF + PENTAGON-21-DAY-WEAPONS-PRODUCTION-MEMO cycle at T+~8h from C261. The dual-response to C261 Pezeshkian-formal-claim resolves cleanly: TRUMP CHOSE RESTRAINT (economic-pressure over military-response) AND IRAN CHOSE HARDENING (Araghchi formal-track-suspension + compensation-precondition + parliament-bill institutionalization). This is a stable-but-frozen configuration — no near-term deal path, but also no near-term kinetic-escalation cycle. Six substantive observations vs C261: (a) TRUMP "LOW KEYING IT" ECONOMIC-PRESSURE DOCTRINE per Axios exclusive + Al Jazeera + RFERL + Times of Israel — Trump to Axios brief phone-call: "We are low keying it," "We are only semi-negotiating with them," "We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money"; Trump appeared to back off threats of immediate military action, suggesting he would allow economic pressure to force Islamic republic to make peace deal; "U.S. naval blockade has exacerbated the Iranian regime's economic crisis" (Trump-cited). This is the FIRST FORMAL TRUMP-TIER RESPONSE to Pezeshkian-formal-claim of ADNOC + Oman-FM-condemnation + Zolghadr-6-demand — and it is RESTRAINT (economic-pressure), not counter-strike, not walk-away, not punitive-sanctions-cycle. The April-precedent-restraint frame holds at Sun-afternoon-window despite two provocative C260-C261 escalations. (b) ARAGHCHI SUN-AUG-9 FORMAL "NO ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS" + COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION per NBC + Prokerala + IANS + Al Jazeera — Araghchi Sun-Aug-9: "There are no ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington"; adds: "The intermediaries are still making efforts to find ways to resume negotiations"; critically: "From our perspective, there can be no resumption of talks until the United States ends its violations of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and makes amends for the breaches it has committed". This is Iran-side formal-suspension of direct-track; US-side compensation-payment now formal-Iran-precondition for talks-resumption (extending the Article-Five 14-point-MoU C261-detail). Iran-side reciprocal-hardening against Trump-low-keying stance. (c) IRAN PARLIAMENT DRAFT BILL FULL DETAILS SURFACED per Middle East Monitor + Al-Monitor + Anadolu + CNBC + Hormuz Letter X + Fars (source) — "Strategic Action for the Security and Sustainable Development of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf"; four key provisions: (1) vessel bans on US, Israeli + Iran-designated "hostile" countries; (2) compensation-preconditions — countries/individuals deemed responsible for damage to Iran denied Hormuz transit until compensation paid; (3) 20% cargo-value penalties for violations; (4) armed-forces oversight — government must work with armed forces on navigation-monitoring + security + environmental-protection in Persian Gulf. Under review by National Security and Foreign Policy Committee; specialists invited to submit recommendations before finalization. THIS IS THE INSTITUTIONAL-FORMALIZATION VEHICLE for both Zolghadr-6-demand (SNSC Secretary-tier) and Araghchi Article-Five (FM-tier) — parliament-tier codification-track now active. (d) PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA "LATE-JULY MEETING" CLAIMED per Al-Monitor + US News + Tribune India + KFGO Aug-9 — Iranian state media Sun-Aug-9: Pezeshkian met Mojtaba Khamenei "around the start of the president's third year in office in late July" (July-24 = 3rd-year-start per July-25-2024 inauguration); topics: war + economy + resources + foreign-exchange + energy-use + economic-ties with foreign partners. Paramilitary leader (Tasnim/IRGC general): footage of Khamenei "will be published in the future" (no timeline provided). Pezeshkian-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION surfaced: July-21 "interactions increasing day by day" vs early-August "communicating with Khamenei was very difficult". The 13-cycle Mojtaba-pending resolves as CLAIMED-MEETING-WITHOUT-VISUAL-PROOF + PROMISE-OF-FUTURE-FOOTAGE + PEZESHKIAN-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION. Mojtaba-visibility-crisis DEEPENS rather than resolves: (i) claim-without-proof pattern continues since March-8-succession; (ii) Pezeshkian giving contradictory accounts undermines credibility; (iii) IRGC-general's "will-publish-in-future" is deferral-cover. (e) PENTAGON 21-DAY WEAPONS-PRODUCTION MEMO per WaPo + CNN + CNBC + Political Wire + Haaretz Aug-8/9 — Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg wrote to defense-industry leaders Wednesday-Aug-5-ish giving them no more than 21 days to submit plans for "significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules and/or increased production for critical capabilities." Patriot and THAAD interceptor stockpiles depleted — recent fighting with Iran "used up more of the U.S. military's already diminished stockpiles of advanced missile interceptors, potentially putting American troops at more risk if hostilities resume." Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell Saturday-Aug-8 statement: "the weapons our warfighters need at the pace the threat demands." INSTITUTIONAL-RECOGNITION OF US-CAPABILITY-DEPLETION — Trump-decapitation + round-2-Israel-strike-plan operationally-bounded by munitions-constraint frame previously flagged C258+. This is a WaPo-tier + CNN-tier confirmation of the "US munitions dangerously low" C255+ framing — no longer a rumor. (f) NO C262 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC — UKMTO Sun-Aug-9 evening-window clean of new incidents; Kumzar Aug-6 + Khasab-18nm Aug-8 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + Sepah-Navy-VHF Aug-2 CARRIES; NO Pezeshkian-formal-claim-follow-through kinetic in ~24h window post-ADNOC-strike + ~8h post-C261. Iran-side kinetic-pause consistent with Trump-low-keying-restraint-window (mutual pause). NO FRESH C262 SIGNALS IN: Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication (still pending; now Araghchi-formal-"no-talks" C262 undermines); Bahrain UNSC fresh vote (no C262 vote leveraging Pezeshkian-claim + Oman-condemnation + 15-vessels-cumulative); IAEA Grossi Aug-9 statement (35th-cycle silence); UAE beyond-condemnation escalation (no coalition-request, no ADCOP-hardening announcement); Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession (Fidan-signal C261 CARRIES); Netanyahu-cabinet-reshuffle or IDF-command-crisis break-open; Trump punitive-response to Pezeshkian-formal-claim (superseded by Trump-low-keying); Fresh Israel round-2-strike-window announcement (Fox-News C261 baseline signal CARRIES); Mojtaba visual-proof; Iran parliament vote-tally on draft-bill; Fresh Houthi-Saudi kinetic; Fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi statement. All C261 CARRIES apply where not superseded: Pezeshkian-formal-claim-of-ADNOC-C261 CARRIES + Trump-low-keying-response-C262 CROWNS; Araghchi Article-Five-C261 CARRIES + Sun-Aug-9-"no-talks" + compensation-precondition-C262 EXTENDS; ADNOC-cumulative-15-vessels-1-KIA-20-injured-C261 CARRIES; Oman-FM-condemnation-C261 CARRIES; Mecca-Egypt-expansion-signal-C261 CARRIES; Iraq-dual-track-deferral-detail-C261 CARRIES + no-C262-rupture EXTENDS; Hajideligani-Pezeshkian-impeachment-threat-C261 CARRIES + no-formal-filing-C262-EXTENDS; ADNOC-missile-strike-C260 CARRIES; Zolghadr-6-demand CARRIES; UAE + Qatar + Saudi condemnation CARRIES; CENTCOM 53 + 30-humanitarian + F-35C sorties CARRIES; VP Vance "max oil flow" CARRIES + Pezeshkian-C261-falsified + Trump-C262-doctrine-shift-supersedes; Bessent-2-year-substitution-doctrine CARRIES; Turkey FM disclaimer CARRIES + Egypt-expansion-C261 extends; IRGC-Aerospace-separate-track CARRIES; Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES; Italy Tajani-Araghchi call CARRIES; Iran-Oman final-stages CARRIES + Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262-undermines; Mecca pact CARRIES; Saudi bracing CARRIES; Houthi Wafa/Daisy CARRIES; Saudi Hodeidah + Houthi 12-missile retaliation CARRIES; QatarEnergy force-majeure end-Aug + Edison-September CARRIES; Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-rupture CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey pipeline 1-year deal CARRIES; SPR 304.8M/42.7% CARRIES; UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 CARRIES; Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 CARRIES; Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES; "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES; Bahrain UNSC 2817 (135 co-sponsors) HISTORICAL CARRIES; IAEA no-staff 35th cycle CARRIES; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; ADNOC West-East-pipeline 50% early-2027-target CARRIES; Mombasa + Al Bahyah mid-July ADNOC-tankers CARRIES. C261 → C262 KEY DELTAS (~8h delta window): (1) TRUMP "LOW KEYING IT" ECONOMIC-PRESSURE DOCTRINE Sun-Aug-9 (Axios exclusive) — first formal Trump-response to C260/C261 dual-escalation; RESTRAINT confirmed. (2) ARAGHCHI SUN-AUG-9 FORMAL "NO ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS" + COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION — Iran-side formally-closes direct-track; MoU-amends prerequisite for resumption. (3) IRAN PARLIAMENT DRAFT BILL FULL DETAILS — "Strategic Action for Security and Sustainable Development of Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf" — bar hostile-vessels + compensation-precondition + 20% cargo-fine + armed-forces-oversight; institutional-formalization vehicle. (4) PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA "LATE-JULY MEETING" CLAIMED WITHOUT VISUAL PROOF — resolves 13-cycle-Mojtaba-pending as claim-without-proof + promise-of-future-footage + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction (July-21 "day by day" vs early-Aug "very difficult"). (5) PENTAGON 21-DAY WEAPONS-PRODUCTION MEMO (WaPo/CNN/CNBC/Political Wire/Haaretz) — Feinberg 21-day defense-industry deadline; Patriot + THAAD stockpile-depletion confirmed institutionally. (6) NO C262 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC OR MAJOR STRUCTURAL RUPTURE — Iran-side kinetic-pause matches Trump-side restraint-window. Structural locks (C261 → C262 ~8h delta): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES + WEEKEND-CLOSED + MON-REPRICE-COMPOUND-INDETERMINATE-C262 — Trump-low-keying dampens escalation-premium (partial-de-escalation-signal), Araghchi-"no-talks" + parliament-bill hardens deal-collapse-premium (escalation-signal), net-Mon-Aug-10 direction indeterminate; expected range $80-$88 with lower-bound firmed by Trump-restraint, upper-bound firmed by parliament-bill + Araghchi-hardening; Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES + 30-HUMANITARIAN-PERMITTED; Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDING-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-DELAYS-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-BILL-DEEPENS-C262 — parliament-bill formal-vessel-bans + 20% cargo-fine adds insurance-repricing structural-headwind; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-BILL-DEEPENS-C262 — 20% cargo-fine + armed-forces-oversight-clause hardens crew-risk-perception; Lock-5 (Duration) MAXIMALIST-CARRIES + ARAGHCHI-FORMAL-"NO-TALKS"-C262-EXTENDS-DEEPENED + PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFICATION-C262 — Iran-side formal-suspension of direct-track deepens deal-collapse-window, but Trump-low-keying opens time-buffer for eventual reset; Lock-6 (Nuclear) NETANYAHU-JPOST-HARDENED-CARRIES + IAEA-35TH-CYCLE-CARRIES + ZAMIR-2027-CARRIES + PENTAGON-STOCKPILE-DEPLETION-BOUNDS-C262 — Pentagon-memo-institutional-confirmation caps kinetic-tier for Israel-round-2-strike-plan; Lock-7 (Geographic) MULTI-FRONT-CARRIES + MECCA-EGYPT-EXPANSION-C261 CARRIES + IRAQ-DUAL-TRACK-DEFERRAL-C261 EXTENDS + NO-C262-RUPTURE; Lock-8 (Capability) CENTCOM-TEMPO CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-VALIDATES-IRAN-DOCTRINE-C261 CARRIES + PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO-C262-CAPS-US-KINETIC — Pentagon-memo-institutional-confirmation of stockpile-depletion caps US kinetic-tier operationally; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) SAUDI-BRACING-CARRIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-HARDENS-CARRIES + PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFIES-CARRIES; Lock-10 (Leadership) SNSC-12-OF-13-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA-LATE-JULY-CLAIM-WITHOUT-PROOF-C262 + MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-CRISIS-DEEPENED-C262 + HAJIDELIGANI-CARRIES + OMAN-STRESS-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION-C262 SURFACED — Mojtaba-visibility-crisis deeply-worsens; Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction damages own credibility; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-END-AUGUST → EDISON-SEPTEMBER-CARRIES + ADCOP-STRIKE-RISK-CARRIES + WEST-EAST-2027-LONG-TERM-SUBSTITUTION-CARRIES. Critical 0-8h Sun-Aug-9-evening + 0-16h Mon-Aug-10-open + 0-24h Mon-Aug-10-EOD + 0-48h Tue-Aug-11: (a) Whether Trump-low-keying-doctrine holds through Mon-Aug-10 or reverts to escalation-response on any fresh Iran-kinetic or provocation; (b) Whether Araghchi-"no-talks" is durable formal-position or negotiating-optics for internal-hardliner-cover; (c) Whether Iran parliament advances Strategic-Action-Draft-Bill to full-vote (National Security committee-tier → floor-vote timing critical); (d) Whether Mojtaba appears in verified-visual (Tasnim promise of "future footage" — first watch-window Mon-Tue); (e) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes despite Araghchi-formal-"no-talks"; (f) Mon-Aug-10-open Brent — indeterminate direction; expected range $80-$88 with $84 median-anchor and downside-risk to $80 on Trump-low-keying-doctrine-repricing / upside-risk to $88+ on Araghchi-no-talks + parliament-bill-formalization; (g) Whether Israel leverages Pentagon-stockpile-confirmation to accelerate-independent-strike-plan or defers due to operational-cap; (h) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis breaks open; (i) Whether UAE announces coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening post-cumulative-1-KIA-surfacing; (j) Whether Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession or delays; (k) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU or ratifies Zolghadr-expansion; (l) Whether Bahrain UNSC leverages Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC-cumulative + Oman-condemn + parliament-bill for fresh vote; (m) Whether IAEA Grossi issues Aug-9/10 statement leveraging fresh material; (n) Whether P&I insurance immediate-repricing Mon-Aug-10 escalates fixture-cancellation cascade; (o) Whether fresh Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic materializes Sun-Mon; (p) Whether Iran ADCOP-strike materializes as second-order Pezeshkian-doctrine-consistency signal; (q) Whether Trump modulates Sun-evening/Mon-morning Truth Social with updated stance; (r) Whether Iraqi-militia deferral holds post-C261/C262 (Al Ameri-mediation testing horizon).

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C261 → C262 DELTAS)

• 🟢🟡 TRUMP "WE ARE LOW KEYING IT" ECONOMIC-PRESSURE DOCTRINE C262 per Axios exclusive + Al Jazeera + RFERL + Times of Israel — Sun-Aug-9 brief phone-call: "only semi-negotiating with them," "just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money"; FIRST FORMAL TRUMP-RESPONSE TO PEZESHKIAN-C261-FORMAL-CLAIM = RESTRAINT (not counter-strike, not punitive-sanctions-cycle, not walk-away); April-precedent-restraint-frame extends.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI FORMAL "NO ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS" + COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION C262 per NBC + Prokerala + IANS + Al Jazeera — Sun-Aug-9: "no ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington"; intermediaries "still making efforts"; critically: "no resumption of talks until the United States ends its violations of the MoU and makes amends for the breaches"; DEAL-TRACK BILATERALLY-SUSPENDED.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN PARLIAMENT DRAFT BILL FULL DETAILS C262 per Middle East Monitor + Al-Monitor + Anadolu + CNBC + Hormuz Letter/Fars — "Strategic Action for Security and Sustainable Development of Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf"; 4 provisions: (1) hostile-vessel bans (US, Israeli, +designated); (2) compensation-precondition for transit; (3) 20% cargo-value penalties; (4) armed-forces navigation-oversight; NSC + Foreign Policy committee reviewing; specialists invited — INSTITUTIONAL-FORMALIZATION VEHICLE FOR ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + ARTICLE-FIVE.

• 🟡🔴 PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA "LATE-JULY MEETING" CLAIMED WITHOUT VISUAL PROOF C262 per Al-Monitor + US News + Tribune India + KFGO — state media Sun-Aug-9: meeting "around start of president's third year in office in late July"; topics war + economy; Tasnim (IRGC general): images "will be published in the future" (no timeline); Pezeshkian internal-contradiction surfaced: July-21 "day by day" vs early-Aug "very difficult"; 13-CYCLE-MOJTABA-PENDING RESOLVES AS CLAIM-WITHOUT-PROOF — MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-CRISIS DEEPENS.

• 🔴🔴🔴 PENTAGON 21-DAY WEAPONS-PRODUCTION MEMO C262 per WaPo + CNN + CNBC + Political Wire + Haaretz Aug-8/9 — Deputy Defense Secretary Feinberg 21-day defense-industry deadline for acceleration-plans; Patriot + THAAD stockpiles depleted; Parnell "weapons at the pace threat demands"; INSTITUTIONAL-RECOGNITION OF US-CAPABILITY-DEPLETION — VALIDATES C258+ MUNITIONS-CONSTRAINT FRAME.

• 🟡 NO C262 FRESH MARITIME KINETIC — UKMTO Sun-Aug-9 evening-window clean; Kumzar/Khasab/Minoan Pioneer/Al-Rekayyat/Sepah-Navy-VHF CARRIES; Iran-side kinetic-pause matches Trump-restraint-window.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN FORMAL CLAIM OF ADNOC-STRIKE Aug-8/9 CARRIES from C261 — now TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-RESPONSE-C262-EXTENDS.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI ARTICLE FIVE OF 14-POINT MoU CARRIES from C261 — now PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFIES-C262 + ARAGHCHI-"NO-TALKS"-EXTENDS-C262.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ADNOC OFFICIAL CUMULATIVE 15 VESSELS + 1 KILLED + 20 INJURED CARRIES from C261.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 OMAN FM PUBLIC CONDEMNATION OF IRAN CARRIES from C261 — no fresh C262 Oman-mediator-status update.

• 🟢🟡 MECCA PACT EGYPT-EXPANSION SIGNAL CARRIES from C261 — no fresh C262 Egypt-formal-accession.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ DUAL-TRACK DEFERRAL DETAIL CARRIES from C261 — no fresh C262 kinetic-rupture despite Pezeshkian-formal-claim-precedent-test.

• 🔴🔴🔴 HAJIDELIGANI PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT CARRIES from C261 — no fresh C262 formal-filing.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MISSILE STRIKE ON ADNOC TANKER Aug-8 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 SNSC ZOLGHADR 6-DEMAND MAXIMALIST LIST CARRIES from C260 + PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFIES-C262.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 53 VESSELS REDIRECTED + 30-HUMANITARIAN + F-35C SORTIES CARRIES from C260.

• 🟢🟡 VP VANCE Aug-8 "MAX OIL FLOW" STATEMENT CARRIES — Pezeshkian-C261-falsified + Trump-C262-doctrine-shift-supersedes.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "HORMUZ IRRELEVANT IN 2 YEARS" CARRIES from C260.

• 🟢🟡 TURKEY FM DISCLAIMER CARRIES from C260 + Egypt-expansion-signal-C261 EXTENDS + no-fresh-C262 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN FM ARAGHCHI "MUSLIM UNITY" COUNTER CARRIES + Article-Five-C261 + "no-talks"-compensation-precondition-C262 EXTENDS.

• 🟡 IRGC-AEROSPACE SEPARATE-TRACK CARRIES from C260 — reopening not linked to Oman deal; no-fresh-C262 print.

• 🔴🔴🔴 ZAMIR FREEZES MAJOR GENERAL APPOINTMENTS TO EARLY 2027 CARRIES from C260 — institutional-Israeli-hardening + Pentagon-stockpile-depletion-C262 caps Israeli-round-2 operationally.

• 🟢 ITALY FM TAJANI-ARAGHCHI CALL CARRIES from C260 — Oman-mediator-adjunct.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT CARRIES + EGYPT-EXPANSION-C261 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUGUST + EDISON-SEPTEMBER EXTENSION CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTED-MoU CARRIES — Mojtaba-13th-cycle now resolves as CLAIMED-LATE-JULY-MEETING-WITHOUT-PROOF-C262 + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction-C262 surfaced.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ PM AL-ZAIDI MILITARY-HIGH-ALERT + AL AMERI DEFERRAL CARRIES — no-C262-rupture.

• 🔴🔴🔴 SAUDI "BRACING FOR MULTIPLE COORDINATED ATTACKS" CARRIES from C259.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + TRUMP-REJECTION CARRIES — now Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262 undermines joint-statement track.

• 🟢🟡 TRUMP "MOVING ALONG" CARRIES from C258/C259 — superseded by Trump-"low-keying-it"-doctrine-C262 (first Trump-response to Pezeshkian-claim).

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ-ZAMIR BLUTH CRISIS + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY AUG-5 + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION CARRIES — no-fresh-C262 kinetic.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL + JPOST-"WITH OR WITHOUT DEAL" CARRIES + Pentagon-stockpile-depletion-C262-caps.

• 🔴🔴🔴 REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES; PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-C261-SUPERSEDES + TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-C262-EXTENDS.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" C258+ + Trump AUG-6 "MASSIVE AMOUNTS" COUNTER + APRIL-PRECEDENT-BOUNDED CARRIES + PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO-C262 INSTITUTIONAL-CONFIRMATION.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES + TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-C262-DE-EMPHASIZES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — no Pentagon response 10+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG + OPEC+ SEP-HIKE + IRAQ-TURKEY 170-200K + 750K FLOOR CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 (135 co-sponsors) HISTORICAL CARRIES; PARLIAMENT-BILL + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE + OMAN-CONDEMN → still no fresh vote initiated C262.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 35th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-9 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED + IRAQ-KPLER 1 MB/D + 30-HUMANITARIAN-PERMITTED CARRIES.

• 🔴 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE — RESOLVED AS CLAIMED-LATE-JULY-MEETING-WITHOUT-PROOF-C262 + PEZESHKIAN-INTERNAL-CONTRADICTION-C262 + IRGC-GENERAL-PROMISE-OF-FUTURE-FOOTAGE-C262.

• 🔴 SPR ~304.8M MB / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+3 days).

• 🔴 UAE ADCOP WEST-EAST-PIPELINE 50% COMPLETE, EARLY-2027 TARGET, 3.6 MBD BY MID-2027 CARRIES.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 163 / Ceasefire STATUS: TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-ECONOMIC-PRESSURE-DOCTRINE-C262 vs ARAGHCHI-FORMAL-"NO-TALKS"-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION-C262 = STABLE-BUT-FROZEN CONFIGURATION. C262 confirms: (a) Trump chose restraint (economic-pressure over military-response) — first formal Trump-response to Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Oman-FM-condemnation + Zolghadr-6-demand is April-precedent-restraint-consistent; (b) Iran chose hardening (Araghchi formal-track-suspension + compensation-precondition + parliament-bill institutionalization); (c) Parliament draft bill full-details = institutional-formalization vehicle for both Zolghadr-6-demand (SNSC-tier) and Araghchi Article-Five (FM-tier); (d) Mojtaba-late-July-meeting claimed without visual proof — 13-cycle-pending resolves as claim-without-proof + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction; (e) Pentagon 21-day weapons-production memo = institutional-confirmation of US-capability-depletion → caps kinetic-tier for Israeli round-2 + US decapitation-frame; (f) All other C261 substantive frameworks CARRIES. War cost $37.5B+ CARRIES. C261 → C262 (~8h delta Sun-mid-CEST → Sun-evening-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C262 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — ARAGHCHI FORMAL "NO-ONGOING-NEGOTIATIONS" + COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION-C262 + PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFICATION-C262 + TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-DOCTRINE-C262; Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Zolghadr-6-demand CARRIES; MoU-amends-precondition + parliament-bill formalized-institutionally; bilateral-track SUSPENDED with intermediaries "still trying"
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened-CARRIES + Katz-Zamir-Bluth-rupture + Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES + PENTAGON-21-DAY-WEAPONS-MEMO-C262 = US-CAPABILITY-DEPLETION-INSTITUTIONAL-CONFIRMATION → CAPS ISRAELI-ROUND-2 OPERATIONALLY
• 🟢🟡🔴 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement "final stages" CARRIES + Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262-undermines-final-statement track; OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION-C261 CARRIES; joint-statement now materially strained + probably-suspended pending Araghchi-position-clarification
• 🟢🟡🔴 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure end-Aug→September-Edison-extension CARRIES; Qatar-condemned-ADNOC-C260 CARRIES
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened + Katz-Zamir-Bluth CARRIES + Zamir-2027-C260 CARRIES + Pentagon-stockpile-C262-caps
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-hardened + IAEA-no-staff CARRIES 35th cycle; Pentagon-stockpile-C262 caps Israeli-independent-strike-capacity
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint + Saudi-retaliation — Wafa/Daisy CARRIES + Saudi-Hodeidah + 12-missile-retaliation CARRIES; Saudi "bracing" C259 CARRIES; no-fresh-C262 kinetic
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iraq-front — PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert + Al Ameri "special ops postpone" CARRIES; no-C262-rupture despite Pezeshkian-precedent — Al Ameri-mediation holding at Sun-evening
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Sunni-bloc-formation-leg — Mecca Joint Defence Agreement CARRIES + Turkey-disclaimer + Egypt-expansion-signal C261 CARRIES; no-fresh-C262 Egypt-accession
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 UAE-direct-target-leg — ADNOC-strike-Aug-8 + cumulative 15-vessels + 1-KIA + 20-injured-C261 CARRIES; no-fresh-C262 UAE-coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening-announcement

• 🟢🟡 NEW Trump "we are low keying it" economic-pressure doctrine (Axios exclusive)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Araghchi Sun-Aug-9: "no ongoing negotiations" + compensation-precondition
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iran parliament draft-bill full-details (Strategic-Action + 4-provisions)
• 🟡🔴 NEW Pezeshkian-Mojtaba "late-July meeting" claim without visual proof + Tasnim-IRGC-general future-footage-promise + Pezeshkian internal-contradiction (July-21 vs early-Aug)
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Pentagon 21-day weapons-production memo (Feinberg + Parnell)
• 🟡 NEW No C262 fresh maritime kinetic (Iran-side kinetic-pause matches Trump-restraint-window)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Pezeshkian formal claim of ADNOC-strike (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Araghchi Article-Five 14-point MoU detail (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES ADNOC cumulative 15-vessels + 1-KIA + 20-injured (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Oman FM public condemnation of Iran (C261)
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES Mecca Egypt-expansion signal (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iraq dual-track deferral detail (C261) + no-C262-rupture EXTENDS
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Hajideligani Paydari Front Pezeshkian-impeachment threat (C261)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC missile strike on ADNOC tanker Aug-8
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES SNSC Zolghadr 6-demand maximalist list
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES CENTCOM 53 vessels + 30-humanitarian + F-35C sorties
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES VP Vance "max oil flow" (Pezeshkian-C261-falsified + Trump-C262-doctrine-shift-supersedes)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Bessent "Hormuz irrelevant 2 years"
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES Turkey FM disclaimer + NATO Article-5 mirror
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC-Aerospace separate-track
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Zamir 2027-freeze + Pentagon-C262-caps
• 🟢 CARRIES Italy FM Tajani-Araghchi call
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran-Oman joint-statement final-stages (Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262-undermines)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert
• 🟡 CARRIES Brent $82.49/WTI $77.29 Aug-6 close (weekend markets closed Sat/Sun)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US-ban-clause + Trump-admin-rejection (superseded by Pezeshkian-claim + Trump-low-keying)
• 🟡 CARRIES Trump "moving along" (superseded by Trump-"low-keying-it"-doctrine-C262)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran Gharibabadi 4-commitment + Zolghadr-expansion + Parliament-bill-C262 codifies
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Pezeshkian SNSC 12/13 voted MoU (Mojtaba-13th-cycle now claimed-late-July-meeting-C262-without-proof)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial (superseded by Pezeshkian-claim + Trump-C262-extends)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu CBS uranium-endorsement + JPost hardening + Pentagon-C262-caps
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + PENTAGON-MEMO-C262-CONFIRMATION US munitions + Trump-"massive amounts" — WaPo-CNN-tier institutional-confirmation
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 shootdown Aug-3 (no Pentagon response 10+ cycles)
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 Aug + OPEC+ Sep-hike + Iraq-Turkey 170-200K
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff (35th cycle)
• 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 + Khasab-18nm Aug-8 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC vote C262

• All Iran/Israel/Lebanon/US KIA/wounded figures CARRY unchanged from C261 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~8h window)
• ADNOC 1 crew killed + 20 injured across 15 vessels since Feb-28 CARRIES (per ADNOC official statement C261)
• Total war deaths: 8,981–18,315 CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wiki / 3,636 HRANA / 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,333+ killed CARRIES
• US KIA/wounded: 18 KIA / 687 wounded CARRIES
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss: ~$1B / 24+ airframes CARRIES

Net ceasefire trajectory C262: The C260 kinetic-escalation + C261 institutional-hardening pattern has been JOINED at C262 by (i) TRUMP-LOW-KEYING-ECONOMIC-PRESSURE-DOCTRINE (restraint-track confirmed) + (ii) ARAGHCHI-FORMAL-"NO-TALKS"-COMPENSATION-PRECONDITION (deal-track bilaterally-suspended) + (iii) PARLIAMENT-BILL-INSTITUTIONAL-CODIFICATION (Zolghadr + Article-Five formalizing into law) + (iv) MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-CRISIS-DEEPENED (claim-without-proof + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction) + (v) PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO (US-capability-depletion institutional-confirmation) + (vi) NO-C262-FRESH-KINETIC (mutual pause). Net: stable-but-frozen configuration with reduced kinetic-escalation-risk vs C260/C261 but ALSO reduced deal-restart-probability. Trump-restraint is materially de-escalatory (removes counter-strike + punitive-cycle + walk-away tails) but does not resolve the Iran-side codification-track (Zolghadr → parliament-bill → Article-Five compensation-precondition sequence). Revised C262 base-case 10-25% Mon-Tue Aug-10-11 modified-partial announcement (requires Trump-low-keying-holds + intermediaries-productive + Araghchi-walk-back-or-conditional-lifting-of-precondition + parliament-bill-committee-defers + Mojtaba-appears-in-visible-form), 35-50% Mon-Tue-Wed slippage into Aug-12+ (stable-frozen configuration extends; intermediaries continue slow-track work; parliament-bill-committee-review continues; Mojtaba-crisis unresolved), 25-40% deal-collapse tail (Iran-side compensation-precondition becomes-institutionalized-nonstarter for Trump; Araghchi + Parliament + Pezeshkian codified-position hardens; Israeli round-2 window-searches operational-workaround around Pentagon-stockpile-cap; Oman formal-mediator-withdrawal; Mojtaba-crisis triggers succession-fracture cascade). Mon-Aug-10-open Brent watch — direction indeterminate; expected range $80-$88 with $84 median-anchor; downside-risk to $80 on Trump-low-keying-doctrine-repricing (partial-de-escalation-priced-in); upside-risk to $88+ on Araghchi-no-talks + parliament-bill-formalization + Mojtaba-visibility-crisis. Net partial-de-escalation on Trump-side offsetting Iran-side hardening — likely muted-move Mon-open with volatility-band tighter than C261-projected $84-$88.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: ~94 vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES + C262 no NEW-Aug-9-evening kinetic through Sun-evening-CEST); ADNOC official-cumulative-count 15 ADNOC vessels since Feb-28 with 1 crew KIA + 20 injured CARRIES; Iran International "16 total vessels attacked" methodology-consistent (1-vessel-discrepancy); 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi-blockade CARRIES; C262 window (~8h) fresh: NONE — Iran-side kinetic-pause matches Trump-restraint-window.

Neutral-state-infrastructure attack marker (C262): ADNOC-strike + Ras Laffan (Qatar) March-18 + Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 = 3 confirmed direct-strikes on neutral-Gulf-state energy-infrastructure since war-onset CARRIES; Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 CROWNS ADNOC-strike as formal-Iran-doctrine; no C262 fresh neutral-state-infrastructure strike.

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C262; CARRIES.

4. Oil Prices

Sunday-evening/Monday-open watch: Weekend markets closed C262 Sat/Sun; Mon-Aug-10-open direction indeterminate — dual-forces balance: (i) Trump-"low-keying-it"-doctrine + Pentagon-stockpile-institutional-confirmation = partial-de-escalation-signal → downside-pressure to $80; (ii) Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262 + parliament-bill-institutionalization + Mojtaba-visibility-crisis-deepens = escalation-signal → upside-pressure to $88+; NET expected Mon-open $84 median-anchor with volatility-band $80-$88, tighter than C261-projected range on Trump-restraint-offset; upper-bound $92 possible on parliament-bill-committee-vote-advance; lower-bound $78 possible on Trump-explicit-restart-signal. Fesharaki $150-200 tail-scenario continues to require chokepoint-completely-shut plus infrastructure-strike-wave — not activated C262.

Geopolitical-directional statements C262: Trump "low keying it" + "only semi-negotiating" + "just watching Iran with its huge inflation" = economic-pressure-doctrine → soft-downside; Araghchi "no ongoing negotiations" + "no resumption until US ends violations and makes amends" = hard-upside; Parliament-bill 20%-cargo-fine + hostile-vessel-bans = structural-upside.

5. SPR

IEA coordinated release status (CARRIES C260):

6. Bypass Infrastructure

GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable CARRIES

Long-term-substitution-path (Bessent-doctrine-validated-C261): UAE West-East-2027-target (3.6 Mbd by mid-2027) would reduce GAP by ~1.4 mb/d; combined-with-planned-ADCOP-expansion + Saudi-E-W-Yanbu-port-upgrades could realistically reduce GAP by ~2-3 mb/d over 24 months → projected 2028 GAP: ~9-11 mb/d unbridgeable (still structural but improving). Bessent-"Hormuz-irrelevant-in-2-years"-doctrine is directionally-consistent with UAE-C261-timeline but numerically-aggressive.

7. Maritime Insurance

8. Shadow Fleet

C262 window (Sun-evening-CEST ~8h delta): No fresh C262 seizures, designations, or major enforcement actions. All prior-cycle shadow-fleet material CARRIES.

Standing narrative: Shadow fleet ~1,400 vessels (25% of global tanker fleet) CARRIES. Iran-affiliated + Russia-sanctions-evasion + Venezuela-Cuba networks CARRIES. IRGC friendly-fire on own shadow tankers documented CARRIES (Arctic Metagaz-type incidents). GRU/Wagner militarization signals CARRIES. Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 provides doctrinal-cover for future IRGC-Aerospace-authorized-strikes on any commercial vessel; Parliament-bill-C262 formalizes vessel-ban-authority — combined effect: broader IRGC-freehand + parliamentary-legal-cover for shadow-fleet + hostile-vessel enforcement.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C262 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Trump "we are low keying it" economic-pressure doctrine (Axios exclusive Sun-Aug-9) — first formal Trump-tier response to Pezeshkian-formal-claim of ADNOC + Oman-FM-condemnation + Zolghadr-6-demand; restraint-track confirmed; "only semi-negotiating with them"; "just watching Iran with its huge inflation"; naval-blockade positioned as economic-pressure-mechanism.
2. Araghchi formal "no ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington" + compensation-precondition (Sun-Aug-9) — direct-track bilaterally-suspended; "no resumption of talks until the United States ends its violations of the MoU and makes amends for the breaches"; intermediaries "still making efforts."
3. Iran parliament draft bill full-details — "Strategic Action for Security and Sustainable Development of Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf" — 4 provisions: hostile-vessel bans (US, Israeli, Iran-designated); compensation-precondition for transit; 20% cargo-value penalties; armed-forces navigation-oversight. Under NSC + Foreign Policy committee review with specialist-input invitation.
4. Pezeshkian-Mojtaba "late-July meeting" claimed without visual proof — state media Sun-Aug-9 report; meeting "around start of president's third year in office in late July"; topics war + economy; Tasnim (IRGC general): images "will be published in the future"; Pezeshkian internal-contradiction surfaced (July-21 "day by day" vs early-Aug "very difficult").
5. Pentagon 21-day weapons-production memo (Feinberg + Parnell) — WaPo + CNN + CNBC + Political Wire + Haaretz Aug-8/9; Deputy Defense Secretary Feinberg deadline for defense-industry acceleration-plans; Patriot + THAAD interceptor stockpiles depleted; institutional-recognition of US-capability-depletion.
6. No C262 fresh maritime kinetic — UKMTO Sun-Aug-9 evening-CEST window clean; Iran-side kinetic-pause matches Trump-restraint-window (mutual pause).

(b) Structural Locks Status (C262)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟡 VOLATILE-CARRIES + WEEKEND-CLOSED + MON-REPRICE-COMPOUND-INDETERMINATE-C262 — Trump-low-keying-doctrine dampens escalation-premium (partial-de-escalation-signal → downside-pressure to $80); Araghchi-"no-talks" + Parliament-bill-institutionalization + Mojtaba-visibility-crisis hardens deal-collapse-premium (escalation-signal → upside-pressure to $88+); NET Mon-Aug-10 median $84 with tighter volatility-band than C261-projected; upper-bound $92 possible on parliament-vote-advance. NET-INDETERMINATE (offset-tension).
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES — Iraq-Turkey + OPEC+ Sep + CPC + Kpler ~1 + 30-humanitarian-permitted CARRIES; no-C262-fresh. LOOSENING (marginal).
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴 HOLDING + DEEPLY-DEEPENED-DELAYED-C262 — Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 + Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262 + Parliament-bill-C262 20%-cargo-fine push P&I re-entry-probability into Q4-2026 or 2027. TIGHTENING (deeply-deepened).
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED + PARLIAMENT-BILL-DEEPENS-C262 — 20% cargo-fine clause + armed-forces oversight-clause + Pezeshkian-C261-doctrine hardens crew-refusal case; fixture cancellation-acceleration expected Mon-Aug-10. TIGHTENING (deepened).
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE + ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + US-BAN-FAULT-LINE + MECCA + EGYPT-EXPANSION + ARAGHCHI-"NO-TALKS"-C262 + PARLIAMENT-BILL-INSTITUTIONAL-CODIFICATION-C262 — Iran-side codification-track (Zolghadr → Article-Five → parliament-bill → compensation-precondition) formalizing deal-terminal-configuration; Trump-low-keying provides time-buffer but no restart-path. TIGHTENING (severe-deepened).
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 NETANYAHU-JPOST-HARDENED + IAEA-35TH-CYCLE + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + PENTAGON-STOCKPILE-BOUNDS-C262 — Pentagon-C262 institutional-confirmation caps Israel-round-2 operationally. TIGHTENING (bounded by Pentagon-cap-C262).
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴🔴 HOUTHI + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE + SAUDI-HODEIDAH + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEFERRAL + MECCA + TURKEY-DISCLAIMER + EGYPT-EXPANSION + ADNOC-STRIKE + UAE-DIRECT-TARGET + AL-AMERI-DEFERRAL-HOLDING-C262. TIGHTENING (stable at severe-deepened; no-C262-rupture).
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED + PAKISTAN-CAPABILITY + CENTCOM-TEMPO + F-35C-SORTIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-VALIDATES + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-VALIDATES-IRAN-DOCTRINE + PENTAGON-21-DAY-MEMO-C262-CAPS-US-KINETIC + PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFIES-IRAN-DOCTRINE-C262. TIGHTENING (mixed: US-side capped, Iran-side codified).
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴🔴 HOUTHI-WAFA-DAISY + SAUDI-HODEIDAH + SAUDI-BRACING + ADNOC-STRIKE + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-HARDENS + PARLIAMENT-BILL-CODIFIES-C262. TIGHTENING (severe; no-C262-fresh-kinetic).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13 + MOJTABA-VISIBILITY-CRISIS-DEEPENED-C262 (claim-without-proof + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction) + ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + ARAGHCHI-IMPEACHMENT-PREP + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + ISRAELI-KATZ-ZAMIR-BLUTH + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + PEZESHKIAN-"WILL-NOT-YIELD" + PEZESHKIAN-PERSONALLY-OWNS-ADNOC-STRIKE-C261 + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT-C261 + OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION-OF-IRAN + ARAGHCHI-"NO-TALKS"-C262 + PARLIAMENT-BILL-INSTITUTIONAL-C262 — Iran-internal-fracture widening + Mojtaba-visibility-crisis deeply-deepened + Israeli institutional-hardening + Oman-mediator-stress. TIGHTENING (deeply-deepened all sides).
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴 QATAR-END-AUGUST + EDISON-SEPTEMBER + $20B-LOST + 21-CARGOES + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-15-VESSELS-1-KIA-20-INJURED + ADCOP-ELEVATED-RISK + WEST-EAST-2027-VALIDATED — no-C262-fresh; force-majeure structural CARRIES. TIGHTENING (short-term) + LONG-TERM-SUBSTITUTION-VISIBLE.

(c) Critical Watch (0-72h C262)

1. Trump-low-keying-doctrine durability — whether Sun-Aug-9-doctrine holds through Mon-Aug-10 or reverts on fresh Iran-kinetic/provocation; Mon-Aug-10-morning Truth Social first re-test window.
2. Araghchi-"no-talks" durability vs negotiating-optics — whether formal-suspension is durable Iran-position or hardliner-cover for internal-management.
3. Iran parliament Strategic-Action-Draft-Bill advancement — committee-tier → floor-vote timing critical; specialists' input-window; formal-vote-outcome could catalyze deep Mon-Wed insurance + oil-price reprice.
4. Mojtaba appears in verified-visual — Tasnim promise of "future footage"; first watch-window Mon-Tue; visual-proof would resolve deeply-deepened visibility-crisis.
5. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication or formal-suspension — Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262 undermines; watch for Oman-side formal response or publication despite Araghchi.
6. Mon-Aug-10-open Brent direction — indeterminate; expected range $80-$88 with $84 median-anchor; monitor pre-open Asian-session futures.
7. Israel — Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis break-open vs. deferred by Pentagon-stockpile-C262-cap.
8. UAE announces coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening post-cumulative-1-KIA-surfacing + Pezeshkian-formal-claim.
9. Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession post-Fidan-signal-C261.
10. Iraqi-militia adherence to Al Ameri-deferral — Pezeshkian-formal-claim-precedent-test continues; C262 held Sun-evening.
11. Additional Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic — post-Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Iran-side C262 kinetic-pause continuity or rupture.
12. EIA weekly Aug-12 — T+3 days; SPR-draw continuation.
13. IAEA Grossi Aug-9/10 — 35-cycle silence; any statement material.
14. P&I insurance response to Araghchi-C262 + Parliament-bill-C262 — premium repricing Mon-Aug-10 deeply-deepened case.
15. VLCC day-rate repricing Mon-Aug-10 — expected upward with Araghchi + parliament-bill offset partially by Trump-low-keying.
16. Fixture cancellation acceleration Mon-Aug-10 — post-Araghchi + parliament-bill watch.
17. Iran command-clarification — Pezeshkian-formal-track (Presidential) vs Araghchi-formal-track (FM) vs Parliament-formal-track (legislative) alignment; three-tier codification-cascade observable C262.
18. Turkey Iran-diplomatic-channel — post-Fidan disclaimer, watch for Iran-Turkey engagement.
19. US Mecca-pact posture — still unresolved.
20. Iran-side proposal of US-compensation-mechanism — Araghchi-C262 formalized compensation-precondition; watch whether Iran proposes concrete-mechanism (specific-dollar-amount, procedural-framework, timeline) or holds maximalist-demand-optics.
21. Fresh Trump Truth Social or Axios follow-up — Sun-evening/Mon-morning cycle; whether Trump modulates low-keying stance.
22. Pentagon 21-day timeline — Aug-25-ish deadline for defense-industry response-plans; expect capability-recovery-visibility around Aug-26.
23. Iran-Qatar mediator-leg activity — Qatar force-majeure-EOA transitions to Edison-September; watch Qatar-side response to Pezeshkian + Araghchi + Parliament-bill.
24. Fresh Bahrain UNSC vote initiative — leveraging Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC-cumulative + Oman-condemn + Parliament-bill.

(d) Net Assessment

Overall crisis trajectory C262: The C260 kinetic-escalation + C261 institutional-hardening + C262 dual-response resolution produces a STABLE-BUT-FROZEN CONFIGURATION at deeper structural-tightness than any prior cycle since Jul-14 blockade-resumption. Trump chose restraint (Axios-exclusive "low keying it" + "only semi-negotiating" + economic-pressure-doctrine); Iran chose hardening (Araghchi "no-talks" + compensation-precondition + parliament-bill 4-provisions codifying Zolghadr + Article-Five into legislation). The C262 configuration is materially de-escalatory on kinetic-tier (no counter-strike + no round-2 kinetic + no fresh maritime attack + Pentagon-cap on US-strike-capability) AND materially deal-collapse-hardening on institutional-tier (Iran-side codification + Mojtaba-visibility-crisis + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction + Iran-parliament formal-vehicle for maximalist-demands). Trump-low-keying is April-precedent-restraint-consistent — buys time but does not resolve; Iran-side codification is deal-terminal without US-side compensation-payment mechanism. Revised C262 base-case 10-25% Mon-Tue Aug-10-11 modified-partial announcement (requires Trump-low-keying-holds + intermediaries-productive + Araghchi-walk-back-or-conditional-lift + parliament-bill-committee-defers + Mojtaba-appears-visible), 35-50% Mon-Tue-Wed slippage into Aug-12+ (stable-frozen configuration extends; parliament-bill-committee-review continues; Mojtaba-crisis unresolved), 25-40% deal-collapse tail (Iran-side compensation-precondition institutionalized-nonstarter for Trump; Israeli round-2 operational-workaround around Pentagon-stockpile-cap; Oman formal-mediator-withdrawal; Mojtaba-crisis triggers succession-fracture cascade).

What the structural locks pattern implies: 10 of 11 locks TIGHTENING with only Supply LOOSENING marginally. The C262 pattern is the DEEPEST net-structural-tightness since blockade-resumption BUT with kinetic-cycle-cap firmly in place (Trump-restraint + Pentagon-stockpile + no-C262-kinetic + Iraq-militia-deferral-held). Duration-lock has hardened to "severe-deepened" via three-tier Iran-codification-cascade (Zolghadr-SNSC-Secretary + Araghchi-FM + parliament-bill-legislative). Geographic-lock stable at severe-deepened via UAE-direct-target-status + Mecca-Egypt-expansion-signal + Iraq-Al-Ameri-deferral-holding. Dual/Triple Chokepoint stable at severe-deepened via Hormuz-Iran-doctrine-formalization + Saudi-Yemen-continuation-risk. Leadership-lock shows internal-Iran-fracture widening (parliament-tier codification + Pezeshkian-internal-contradiction) AND Israeli institutional-hardening (Zamir-2027-freeze + Pentagon-cap) AND Oman-mediator-additional-stress (Araghchi-"no-talks") simultaneously. Insurance-lock deeply-deepened-delayed post-Araghchi + parliament-bill. Capability-lock mixed (US-side Pentagon-capped, Iran-side parliament-codified). Nuclear-lock bounded by Pentagon-cap-C262. Energy-Infrastructure short-term-tightened by ADNOC-cumulative-C261 CARRIES + long-term-substitution visible via West-East-2027. Only Supply provides marginal-easing. Net: 1 loosening + 10 tightening; deal-window deeper-collapsed than C261; kinetic-cycle capped by mutual-restraint.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: Base-case Mon-Aug-10 Brent-open $80-$88 range with $84 median-anchor; deal-track slippage-tail (35-50%) or collapse (25-40%); insurance-restoration deeply-deepened into Q4-2026 or 2027; Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb + Saudi retaliation independent of Hormuz-track; ADNOC-strike-doctrine formalized by Pezeshkian may cascade to ADCOP-pipeline-strike-risk (if realized, GAP widens by ~1.4 to 13.4-14.4); Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-yr-offline + end-August + Edison-September structural; SPR-drawdown continues; Iraq-front kinetic-risk elevated but Al-Ameri-deferral-held-C262; Iran internal-fracture-widening + Israeli institutional-Pentagon-capped + Oman-mediator-additional-stress produce simultaneous three-sided leadership-tier tightening. Downside-tail 25-40%: Mojtaba ratifies Zolghadr-parliament-bill + Netanyahu operationally-workarounds Pentagon-cap + Trump reverts from low-keying under Iran-provocation + full-collapse to renewed active-war + Saudi-Yemen open kinetic + Iraqi-militia break-ranks post-formal-claim + ADCOP-pipeline-strike + Oman formal-withdrawal-of-mediator-role + Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-fracture triggers succession-crisis cascade.

Key uncertainties: (a) Whether Trump-low-keying-doctrine durably holds through Mon-Aug-10 or reverts on fresh Iran-kinetic/provocation; (b) Whether Araghchi-"no-talks" is durable-Iran-position or hardliner-cover for internal-management; (c) Whether Iran parliament floor-vote advances Strategic-Action-Draft-Bill (timing critical); (d) Whether Mojtaba visual-proof materializes Mon-Tue per Tasnim-promise; (e) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes despite Araghchi-"no-talks" C262 or formally-suspends; (f) Trump's next-move — hold low-keying, reverse on Iran-provocation, or explicitly-restart with compensation-offer; (g) Whether Oman mediator-role formally-preserved despite public-condemnation + Araghchi-"no-talks"-C262 undermining joint-statement; (h) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis breaks open or defers due to Pentagon-stockpile-cap; (i) Whether Iraqi-militia deferral holds beyond C262-Sun-evening; (j) Brent Mon-Aug-10-open direction and depth of reprice; (k) Whether P&I insurance immediate-repricing Mon-Aug-10 escalates fixture-cancellation cascade; (l) Whether UAE announces coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening post-cumulative-1-KIA-surfacing; (m) Whether Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession or delays; (n) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU or ratifies Zolghadr-expansion; (o) Whether Bahrain UNSC leverages Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC-cumulative + Oman-condemn + Parliament-bill for fresh vote; (p) Whether Iran-side proposes concrete US-compensation-mechanism (specific-dollar-amount or procedural-framework) opening deal-path or holds maximalist-optics.

Sources (C262 web sweep — Sun-Aug-9 evening-CEST)

• Trump to Axios: "We are low keying it" with Iran
• Trump says US 'low-keying it' with Iran as Tehran firm on Hormuz conditions (Al Jazeera Live)
• Trump Suggests Economic, Not Military, Pressure Now Favored Against Iran (RFERL)
• Trump says US 'low keying' Iran approach, giving economic pressure time to work (Times of Israel liveblog Aug-9)
• We are not having any negotiations with the US right now: Iran FM (Prokerala)
• We are not having any negotiations with the US right now: Iran FM (IANS Live)
• Iran sets out steep demands for reopening Hormuz despite hopes Oman deal could break impasse (NBC News)
• Iranian parliament reviews bill to restrict Strait of Hormuz transit (Middle East Monitor)
• Iranian parliamentary committee reviews draft bill to bar US, Israeli ships from Hormuz, Fars says (Al-Monitor)
• Iranian Parliamentary Committee Reviews Draft Bill to Bar US, Israeli Ships From Hormuz, Fars Says (US News)
• Iranian parliament reviews bill to restrict Strait of Hormuz transit (Anadolu Agency)
• The Hormuz Letter on X: Iran's Parliament and NSC reviewing formal draft bill on Hormuz + Persian Gulf management
• Iran's Pezeshkian recently met Supreme Leader Khamenei, state media says (Al-Monitor)
• Iran's Pezeshkian Recently Met Supreme Leader Khamenei, State Media Says (US News)
• Iranian media claims meeting between Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian (Tribune India)
• Iran's Pezeshkian recently met Supreme Leader Khamenei, state media says (KFGO)
• Live updates: Pentagon asks defense companies to ramp up production as stockpiles run low during Iran war (CNN Aug-9)
• Pentagon pushes defense companies to boost weapons production after concerns of depleted stocks (Washington Post)
• Pentagon Pushes Companies to Boost Weapons Production (Political Wire)
• Pentagon pushes defense companies to boost weapons production after concerns of depleted stocks (CNBC)
• Report: Pentagon Presses U.S. Arms Makers to Boost Production Amid Iran War Shortages (Haaretz)
• Pentagon reaches deals with defense firms to expand munitions production (AOL)
• Iran Issues Trump Long List Of Demands Over Strait Of Hormuz Reopening (Forbes)
• Israel signals readiness for another Iran strike as Trump declares ceasefire over (Fox News)
• Oil prices jump after Iran publishes restrictive draft plan for Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
• Iran and Oman agree route for ships in Strait of Hormuz (Euronews)
• Iran and Oman release joint statement on Strait of Hormuz (Marine Log)
• UAE says Iran targeted ADNOC tanker in Strait of Hormuz, no casualties (Al Jazeera)
• ADNOC confirms one of its vessels targeted by missile while transiting Strait of Hormuz (WAM)
• Iraqi armed groups condemn 'dangerous escalation' after US-Saudi strikes (Al Jazeera)
• "Missiles can only be countered with missiles": Iraqi militia vows revenge over US-Saudi strikes (Tribune India)
• Iraqi forces on high alert as militia deadline for response to US-Saudi strikes expires (The National)
• Iran Update Evening Special Report: August 07, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Today (Investing.com)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 304.8M bbl (July 31, 2026) (Vault Report)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure Into August (OilPrice.com)
• LNG market disruption: QatarEnergy extends force majeure with Edison (CNBC)
• UAE fast tracks second West-East oil pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
• Yemen's Houthis fire missiles, drones at Saudi Arabia in response to strikes on Hodeida (NBC News)
• Houthis escalate attacks in Red Sea and on Saudi Arabia (FDD Long War Journal)
• Tanker struck by unknown projectile off Oman, engine room damaged (Global Security/UKMTO)
• UKMTO reports explosions targeting two tankers near Oman (Al Arabiya)
• Tracking ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (NBC News)
• Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 160 | Live Tracker & Monitor (straits.live)
• Live Ship Data - Strait of Hormuz (hormuzmonitor.com)
• Report: Netanyahu furious with Katz over Bluth replacement (Times of Israel)
• Resolution 2817 (2026) (UNSCR)
• Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations (Al Jazeera)
• Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (Wikipedia)
• 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz campaign (Wikipedia)
• Masoud Pezeshkian (Wikipedia)
• Mojtaba Khamenei (Wikipedia)

Environment note (C262)

Several MCP servers currently require re-authorization (plugin:finance:ms365, plugin:marketing:ahrefs, plugin:marketing:amplitude, plugin:marketing:canva, plugin:marketing:figma, plugin:marketing:klaviyo, plugin:marketing:notion). None are needed for the Hormuz tracker sweep (WebSearch, file I/O, Apple Notes are sufficient); C262 completed without gap. Apple Notes Grok-bridge lookup: first attempt MCP-timeout; retry surfaced only pre-May-2026 entries (35th consecutive cycle without fresh HORMUZ Grok note). Suggest re-authorizing in claude.ai connector settings when convenient — cadence-non-blocking.