Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-09 · Cycle 2 (C261)

War Day: 163 | Blockade Day: 27 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-9 mid-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN TELEVISED INTERVIEW OFFICIALLY CREDITS ADNOC STRIKE AS IRAN RETALIATION FOR US "MoU BREACH" per NBC News + CNN + Al Jazeera Aug-8/9 — "The US had breached the Strait of Hormuz clause in the memorandum of understanding, and we responded to them in turn"; Pezeshkian: "would strongly defend the MoU signed with the US in June"; FIRST FORMAL PRESIDENTIAL-TIER CLAIM OF THE ADNOC STRIKE — RESOLVES C260 "claim-vs-deny-vs-command-fracture" WATCH-ITEM AS FORMAL IRAN CLAIM | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI DETAILS ARTICLE FIVE OF 14-POINT JUNE MoU per Tehran Times + Deccan Chronicle + Times of Oman + Republic World + Tribune India — MoU is 14-point framework; Article Five: Iran "makes arrangements" for vessel transits through Hormuz; Araghchi: maritime traffic reached ~60% of normal within two weeks post-MoU; US allegedly then "deliberately violated" by establishing unauthorized alternative routes/redirecting commercial vessels; reopening conditional on US compensation for MoU violations | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ADNOC OFFICIAL CUMULATIVE UPDATE per NBC + The National Aug-8 — 15 ADNOC vessels attacked since Feb-28 war-start; 3 vessels this week alone; 1 crew killed + 20 injured cumulative — MATERIAL REVISION vs C260 "no casualties" one-strike frame (cumulative fatality count previously buried; now surfaced by ADNOC official statement) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 OMAN FM CONDEMNATION per NBC Aug-8 — Iran's continued targeting "puts any progress in talks at risk"; brands attacks as "violation of international law and the sovereignty of territorial waters, and pose a threat to safety of maritime navigation and to regional security and stability" — MEDIATOR-ROLE STRESS-SIGNAL; new Oman-side public criticism of Iran | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 SNSC "STRAIT WILL NOT OPEN UNTIL US CORRECTS ITS BEHAVIOR" per Times of Israel + Forbes CARRIES C260 — Zolghadr 6-demand CARRIES | 🟢🟡 MECCA PACT EXPANSION SIGNAL per Atlantic Council + Al Jazeera Aug-8 — Turkish FM Fidan: Egypt "natural partner" expected to join once outstanding technical issues resolved; bloc-expansion trajectory now visible | 🔴🔴🔴 UKMTO AUG-8 FRESH INCIDENT per UKMTO + Global Security + Al Arabiya — cargo ship struck by unknown projectile 18nm east of Khasab, Oman; fire extinguished; vessel/crew safe; DISTINCT FROM ADNOC-MISSILE-STRIKE (Khasab-Oman-side, not open-Strait per NBC methodology) | 🟡 BRENT $82 FRI-AUG-7-CLOSE per Bloomberg + Trading Economics CARRIES; weekend markets closed C261 Sat/Sun; Mon-Aug-10-open watch-window unchanged | 🟢🟡 SPR 304.8M mb / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES (Jul-31 data); next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+3 days) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUGUST → EDISON EXTENSION TO SEPTEMBER per CNBC + AGBI CARRIES; Edison 4-additional-cargoes-withhold-thru-September | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT + TURKEY-DISCLAIMER-C260 + EGYPT-EXPANSION-C261 CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ ISLAMIC RESISTANCE DEFERRAL-BADR-MEDIATION CARRIES from C260 — Hadi al Ameri credited; PM Al Zaydi + Al Ameri agreed to postpone "special operations" against militias suspected of Saudi-attack-involvement — additional-detail-carried | 🔴🔴🔴 HAJIDELIGANI (PAYDARI FRONT) EXPLICITLY THREATENS PEZESHKIAN IMPEACHMENT TOO per Iran International Aug-4 — Araghchi + Pezeshkian both targeted; NO FORMAL FILING through Aug-7 cutoff — internal-fracture-hardened but procedural-restraint holds | 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 + "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES | Cycle: C261 (Sun-Aug-9 mid-CEST ~12:00 / Sun-early-ET ~06:00, ~3h delta from C260 morning-CEST)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP Grok_outputs folder lookup surfaced only pre-May-2026 entries; no HORMUZ note in last 12 hours; THIRTY-FOURTH consecutive cycle: C228→C261. Reduced web sweep (~3h delta window from C260) executed on: Pezeshkian-televised-interview-MoU-breach-response + Araghchi-Article-Five-14-point-MoU-details + ADNOC-official-15-vessels-cumulative-1-crew-killed-20-injured + Oman-FM-condemnation-Iran-targeting + UKMTO-Khasab-18nm-Aug-8-projectile + Iraq-militia-Al-Zaydi-Al-Ameri-special-ops-postpone + Hajideligani-Paydari-Pezeshkian-impeachment-threat + Turkey-FM-Egypt-Mecca-expansion + UAE-ADCOP-West-East-pipeline-50-percent-early-2027-target + Iran-International-15-vessels + oil-price-Fri-close-CARRIES + Qatar-Edison-September-CARRIES + Mecca-pact-CARRIES + CENTCOM-53-CARRIES + Vance-Bessent-CARRIES + Trump-CARRIES.

Baseline: C260 / 2026-08-09 Sun-morning-CEST ~09:00 (IRGC-MISSILE-STRIKE-ADNOC-TANKER + SNSC-ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND-MAXIMALIST + CENTCOM-53-VESSELS-C260 + VP-VANCE-MAX-OIL-FLOW-STATEMENT + BESSENT-2-YEAR-SUBSTITUTION-DOCTRINE + TURKEY-FM-DISCLAIMER + IRAN-FM-ARAGHCHI-MUSLIM-UNITY-COUNTER + ULTRAHARDLINE-ARAGHCHI-IMPEACHMENT-PREP + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + ITALY-TAJANI-ARAGHCHI-CALL).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-09 C261 Sun-mid-CEST ~12:00 / Sun-early-ET ~06:00, ~3h delta from C260): C261 is a PEZESHKIAN-OFFICIAL-CLAIM-OF-ADNOC-STRIKE-AS-MOU-BREACH-RESPONSE + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE-14-POINT-MoU-DETAILS + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-15-VESSELS-1-CREW-KILLED-20-INJURED + OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION-OF-IRAN + MECCA-EGYPT-EXPANSION-SIGNAL + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEFERRAL-DETAIL-EXTENDED + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT cycle at T+~3h from C260. The C261 Pezeshkian-televised-interview officially crediting Iran for the ADNOC strike as retaliation for US "MoU breach" is the MOST MATERIAL LEADERSHIP-TIER SIGNAL SINCE C260 (~3h ago) — it (a) closes the C260 "claim vs deny vs command-fracture" watch-item as FORMAL PRESIDENTIAL CLAIM (not command-fracture; not denial), (b) reframes the entire deal-collapse narrative from "IRGC-Aerospace-freelance" to "formal-Iran-doctrine of retaliatory-strike-as-legitimate-MoU-defense", (c) exposes a substantive earlier US-side treaty-violation claim by Iran (Article Five of 14-point June MoU re Iran's arrangements for transits), and (d) validates the Zolghadr-6-demand-list as full-institutional-Iran-tier, not SNSC-Secretary-freelance. The Araghchi Article-Five detail transforms the C260 "Iran-hardening" frame into a full US-side-attribution frame — Iran now frames the entire post-blockade-resumption period (Jul-14 → Aug-9) as US-caused rather than Iran-caused, positioning ADNOC strike as legitimate MoU-defense-response. This is a MAJOR NARRATIVE-CONTROL move. The ADNOC cumulative update (1 crew killed + 20 injured across 15 vessels since Feb-28) is a material-adverse revision vs the "no casualties" C260 single-strike framing; it retroactively hardens the war-crime-attribution surface. Six substantive observations vs C260: (a) PEZESHKIAN OFFICIALLY CLAIMS ADNOC STRIKE AS MoU-BREACH-RESPONSE per NBC News + CNN + Al Jazeera + Al Jazeera "Iran deliberates Hormuz arrangement" — Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on televised interview: "The US had breached the Strait of Hormuz clause in the memorandum of understanding, and we responded to them in turn"; said he would "strongly defend" the MoU signed with the US in June. This is the FIRST FORMAL PRESIDENTIAL-TIER CLAIM OF THE ADNOC STRIKE — it resolves the C260 command-fracture watch-item as PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM (not command-fracture, not denial). Pezeshkian is the SNSC-chair and now personally owns the ADNOC-strike escalation. Deal-track credibility on Vance-cited "won't fire commercial vessels" commitment is materially falsified — Iran-side asserts commercial-vessel-strikes are permitted MoU-defense. (b) ARAGHCHI DETAILS ARTICLE FIVE OF 14-POINT JUNE MoU per Deccan Chronicle + Tehran Times + Times of Oman + Republic World + Tribune India + ANI News — MoU is a 14-point framework; Article Five: Iran "makes arrangements" for vessel transits through Hormuz; Araghchi: maritime traffic reached ~60% of normal within two weeks post-MoU signing; US allegedly then "deliberately violated" by establishing unauthorized alternative shipping routes and redirecting commercial vessels away from Tehran-designated corridors. Iran claims full 60% reopening was in-place per MoU, and US-side blockade + route-redirection is what re-closed the strait — this positions ALL subsequent Iranian responses (up to and including ADNOC-strike) as legitimate MoU-defense. Massive narrative-control move. (c) ADNOC OFFICIAL CUMULATIVE UPDATE — 15 VESSELS + 1 KILLED + 20 INJURED per NBC News + The National — ADNOC official statement: 15 vessels attacked since war-start (methodology-consistent with Iran International "16" allowing 1-vessel-discrepancy), 3 vessels this week alone, 1 crew member killed + 20 injured cumulatively. The C260 "no casualties" framing applies only to Aug-8-specific strike; cumulative fatality now confirmed 1-crew-KIA and 20-injured across cumulative ADNOC-fleet-attacks since Feb-28. This materially retroactively hardens the war-crime-attribution surface AGAINST Iran post-Pezeshkian-Aug-8/9-official-claim-of-strike-as-doctrine. (d) OMAN FM CONDEMNATION OF IRAN VESSEL-TARGETING per NBC News — Oman Foreign Ministry: Iran's continued targeting of vessels transiting the strait "puts any progress in talks at risk"; attacks constitute a "violation of international law and the sovereignty of territorial waters"; "threat to safety of maritime navigation and to regional security and stability." This is the FIRST OMAN PUBLIC-CRITICISM OF IRAN SINCE MEDIATOR-ROLE BEGAN — mediator-role-stress-signal at highest level. Oman-mediator-neutrality is now materially degraded post-ADNOC-strike + Pezeshkian-claim. (e) MECCA PACT EGYPT-EXPANSION SIGNAL per Atlantic Council + Al Jazeera — Turkish FM Fidan: Egypt is a "natural partner" and expected to join Mecca pact once "outstanding technical issues" are resolved. Egypt-addition would extend Mecca-pact from three-signatory (Turkey + Saudi + Pakistan) to four-signatory Sunni-defense-bloc. Combined with Turkey-FM-disclaimer C260, the bloc-formation dynamic is now visible as expansion-consolidation rather than static-freeze; Iran-side positional-loss deepens even without kinetic escalation. (f) IRAQ MILITIA DEFERRAL — Al ZAYDI + AL AMERI SPECIFIC SPECIAL-OPS-POSTPONE per Institute for Study of War + Critical Threats + The National — Iraqi PM Ali al Zaydi + Badr Org head Hadi al Ameri agreed to postpone the Iraqi security establishment's plan for "special operations" against militias suspected of involvement in Saudi-attacks. This is a specific PM-Ameri-tier agreement to defer counter-militia-ops. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq itself simultaneously postponed its response to US-Saudi strikes via Badr mediation. Dual-track deferral — government-side counter-militia + militia-side counter-Saudi — creates a fragile-hold that ADNOC-strike-precedent may test in 0-72h. NO FRESH C261 SIGNALS IN: Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication (still pending since C258 "final stages"); Trump Sun-morning Truth Social response to ADNOC-strike (~3h post-C260, no fresh); IAEA Grossi Aug-9 statement (33-cycle silence continues); Bahrain UNSC fresh vote leveraging ADNOC-strike; Mojtaba formal sign-off (13th cycle pending); EIA weekly (T+3 days Aug-12); UAE-formal-response beyond diplomatic-condemnation; Netanyahu-cabinet-reshuffle or IDF-command-crisis break-open; Saudi-Yemen fresh kinetic; Trump-admin-punitive-response to ADNOC-strike; US-side response to Pezeshkian-formal-claim. All C260 CARRIES apply where not superseded: ADNOC-missile-strike-C260 CARRIES + Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 CROWNS; Zolghadr-6-demand CARRIES; UAE + Qatar + Saudi condemnation CARRIES; CENTCOM 53 + 30-humanitarian + F-35C sorties CARRIES; VP Vance "max oil flow" CARRIES + falsified-by-Pezeshkian-C261; Bessent-2-year-substitution-doctrine CARRIES; Turkey FM disclaimer CARRIES + Egypt-expansion-C261 extends; Iran FM Araghchi "Muslim unity" CARRIES + Article-Five-detail-C261 extends; Ultrahardline-Araghchi-impeachment-prep CARRIES + Hajideligani-Pezeshkian-target-C261 extends; IRGC-Aerospace-separate-track CARRIES; Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES; Italy Tajani-Araghchi call CARRIES; Iran-Oman final-stages CARRIES; Mecca pact CARRIES; Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi + Al Ameri deferral CARRIES + Aug-7-special-ops-postpone-detail-C261 extends; Saudi bracing CARRIES; Houthi Wafa/Daisy CARRIES; Saudi Hodeidah + Houthi 12-missile retaliation CARRIES; QatarEnergy force-majeure end-Aug + Edison-September CARRIES; Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-rupture CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey pipeline 1-year deal CARRIES; SPR 304.8M/42.7% CARRIES; UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 CARRIES; Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 CARRIES; Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES; "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES; Bahrain UNSC 2817 (135 co-sponsors) HISTORICAL CARRIES; IAEA no-staff 34th cycle CARRIES; Trump "moving along" CARRIES; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; ADNOC West-East-pipeline 50% early-2027-target CARRIES + surfaced-C261. C260 → C261 KEY DELTAS (~3h delta window): (1) PEZESHKIAN FORMAL CLAIM OF ADNOC STRIKE Aug-8/9 (televised) — "we responded to them in turn"; MoU-defense frame; will "strongly defend the MoU." (2) ARAGHCHI ARTICLE FIVE OF 14-POINT MoU DETAIL — Iran "makes arrangements"; 60%-reopening-in-place; US-deliberate-violation-by-alternate-routes claim. (3) ADNOC OFFICIAL 15 VESSELS + 1 KILLED + 20 INJURED CUMULATIVE — retroactive material-adverse update vs "no casualties" C260 framing. (4) OMAN FM PUBLIC CONDEMNATION OF IRAN — first mediator-tier-public-criticism of Iran; "puts progress at risk"; "violation of international law." (5) MECCA PACT EGYPT-EXPANSION SIGNAL — Turkish FM: Egypt "natural partner" pending outstanding technical issues. (6) IRAQ DUAL-TRACK DEFERRAL DETAIL — Al Zaydi + Al Ameri specifically-postpone "special operations" against militias; Islamic Resistance in Iraq simultaneously-postpone counter-response. (7) HAJIDELIGANI PAYDARI FRONT PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT THREAT — Araghchi + Pezeshkian both threatened; no formal filing. Structural locks (C260 → C261 ~3h delta): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES + WEEKEND-CLOSED — no change (Sat/Sun no trading); Mon-Aug-10-open watch-window continues; expected range $84-$88 range HARDENED by Pezeshkian-formal-claim-of-ADNOC-strike; Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES + 30-HUMANITARIAN-PERMITTED — no change; Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDING-CARRIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-TIGHTENS-C260 + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-TIGHTENS-C261 — Pezeshkian-claim makes Iran-side commercial-vessel-strikes formal-policy, deferring P&I re-entry further; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-HARDENS-C261 — Pezeshkian-tier commitment to future MoU-defense strikes hardens crew-refusal case; Lock-5 (Duration) MAXIMALIST-CARRIES + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE-DETAILS-EXTEND-IRAN-CASE-AGAINST-US-C261 — Iran now positioned to blame US for entire post-blockade closure; Lock-6 (Nuclear) NETANYAHU-JPOST-HARDENED-CARRIES + IAEA-34TH-CYCLE + ZAMIR-2027-CARRIES; Lock-7 (Geographic) MULTI-FRONT-CARRIES + MECCA-EGYPT-EXPANSION-SIGNAL-C261 + IRAQ-DUAL-TRACK-DEFERRAL-DETAIL-C261; Lock-8 (Capability) CENTCOM-TEMPO + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-VALIDATES-IRAN-DOCTRINE-C261; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) SAUDI-BRACING-CARRIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM-HARDENS-C261; Lock-10 (Leadership) SNSC-12-OF-13-CARRIES + MOJTABA-13TH-CYCLE-PENDING + PEZESHKIAN-PERSONALLY-OWNS-ADNOC-STRIKE-C261 + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT-C261 + OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION-OF-IRAN-C261 = MEDIATOR-STRESS-SIGNAL; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-END-AUGUST → EDISON-SEPTEMBER-CARRIES + ADCOP-STRIKE-RISK-C260 CARRIES. Critical 0-8h Sun-Aug-9-afternoon + 0-16h Sun-Aug-9-evening + 0-24h Mon-Aug-10-open + 0-48h Tue-Aug-11: (a) Whether Trump-admin issues formal response to Pezeshkian's ADNOC-claim + MoU-breach-framing (April-precedent-restraint vs new-strike-framework vs sanctions-tightening vs walk-away); (b) Whether UAE issues additional response measures beyond diplomatic condemnation (sanctions, expulsion, coalition-request, ADCOP-hardening); (c) Whether Iran issues follow-through kinetic proving commitment to "MoU-defense doctrine" or de-escalates on Trump-response; (d) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes despite Pezeshkian-claim + Zolghadr-6-demand + Oman-FM-condemnation; (e) Whether Oman-mediator-role publicly rejected or held despite fresh condemnation; (f) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU or ratifies Zolghadr-expansion (13th cycle pending); (g) Whether Iran parliament ultrahardliners actually file Araghchi-impeachment or Pezeshkian-impeachment post-formal-claim (or defer under wartime-doctrine); (h) Whether Bahrain UNSC produces fresh Iran-condemnation vote leveraging Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC-strike + 15-vessels-cumulative + 1-crew-killed + UNSC-2817-flagrant-violation frame; (i) Mon-Aug-10-open Brent — expected $84-$88 range with Pezeshkian-claim-adds-upside-bias; above-$92 = escalation-pricing; sub-$80 = deep de-escalation (very unlikely); (j) Whether Israel leverages Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Sunni-bloc-cover for "round 2" strike-plan advancement; (k) Whether Egypt formally announces Mecca-pact accession or delays; (l) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis breaks open; (m) Whether Iraqi-militia deferral holds post-Pezeshkian-formal-claim-precedent; (n) Whether IAEA Grossi issues Aug-9/10 statement leveraging fresh material; (o) Whether P&I insurance premium immediate-repricing Mon-Aug-10 escalates fixture-cancellation cascade; (p) Whether Turkey activates Iran-diplomatic-channel; (q) Whether additional Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic materializes Sun-Mon; (r) Whether Trump modulates Sun-afternoon Truth Social — first Trump-response window opens NOW.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C260 → C261 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN OFFICIALLY CLAIMS ADNOC STRIKE AS MoU-BREACH-RESPONSE Aug-8/9 C261 per NBC News + CNN + Al Jazeera — Iran President televised interview: "US had breached the Strait of Hormuz clause in the memorandum of understanding, and we responded to them in turn"; will "strongly defend the MoU signed with the US in June"; FIRST FORMAL PRESIDENTIAL-TIER OWNERSHIP OF THE ADNOC STRIKE.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 ARAGHCHI DETAILS ARTICLE FIVE OF 14-POINT JUNE MoU C261 per Deccan Chronicle + Tehran Times + Times of Oman + Republic World + Tribune India — Article Five: Iran "makes arrangements" for Hormuz transits; 60% of normal traffic reached within two weeks post-MoU; US-deliberate-violation via alternate-routes/vessel-redirection claim; reopening tied to US compensation for MoU violations.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ADNOC OFFICIAL CUMULATIVE UPDATE — 15 VESSELS + 1 KILLED + 20 INJURED C261 per NBC News + The National — retroactive material-adverse revision vs C260 "no casualties" single-strike framing; 3 vessels this week alone; total cumulative attacks since Feb-28.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 OMAN FM PUBLIC CONDEMNATION OF IRAN C261 per NBC News — First mediator-tier Oman-public-criticism of Iran; attacks "put any progress in talks at risk"; "violation of international law and sovereignty of territorial waters"; "threat to safety of maritime navigation and regional security" — MEDIATOR-ROLE STRESS-SIGNAL.

• 🟢🟡 MECCA PACT EGYPT-EXPANSION SIGNAL C261 per Atlantic Council + Al Jazeera — Turkish FM Fidan: Egypt is a "natural partner"; expected to join once "outstanding technical issues" resolved.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ DUAL-TRACK DEFERRAL DETAIL C261 per Institute for Study of War + Critical Threats + The National — Iraqi PM Al Zaydi + Badr Org head Al Ameri agreed to postpone "special operations" against militias suspected of Saudi-attack-involvement; simultaneously Islamic Resistance in Iraq postponed its response to US-Saudi strikes via Badr mediation — fragile dual-track hold.

• 🔴🔴🔴 HAJIDELIGANI (PAYDARI FRONT) PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT THREAT C261 per Iran International — Ultrahardline lawmaker threatens both Araghchi and Pezeshkian impeachment; NO FORMAL FILING through Aug-7 cutoff — procedural-restraint holds under wartime-doctrine.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MISSILE STRIKE ON ADNOC TANKER Aug-8 CARRIES from C260 — now PEZESHKIAN-OFFICIALLY-CROWNED as Iran-formal-doctrine.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 SNSC ZOLGHADR 6-DEMAND MAXIMALIST LIST CARRIES from C260 — US-troop-withdraw + blockade-lift + sanctions-lift + war-compensation + frozen-assets-release + regional-ally-cessation.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 53 VESSELS REDIRECTED + 30-HUMANITARIAN + F-35C SORTIES CARRIES from C260.

• 🟢🟡 VP VANCE Aug-8 "MAX OIL FLOW" STATEMENT CARRIES — MATERIALLY-FALSIFIED by Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "HORMUZ IRRELEVANT IN 2 YEARS" CARRIES from C260.

• 🟢🟡 TURKEY FM DISCLAIMER CARRIES from C260 — softens Sunni-NATO edge; Egypt-expansion-C261 balances.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN FM ARAGHCHI "MUSLIM UNITY" COUNTER CARRIES from C260 + Article-Five-detail-C261 extends.

• 🟡 IRGC-AEROSPACE SEPARATE-TRACK CARRIES from C260 — reopening not linked to Oman deal.

• 🔴🔴🔴 ZAMIR FREEZES MAJOR GENERAL APPOINTMENTS TO EARLY 2027 CARRIES from C260 — institutional-Israeli-hardening.

• 🟢 ITALY FM TAJANI-ARAGHCHI CALL CARRIES from C260 — Oman-mediator-adjunct.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT CARRIES + EGYPT-EXPANSION-C261.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUGUST + EDISON-SEPTEMBER EXTENSION CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTED-MoU CARRIES — 13th cycle Mojtaba formal sign-off pending; Pezeshkian-formal-claim-of-ADNOC + Zolghadr-6-demand material-undermines original-MoU-content.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAQ PM AL-ZAIDI MILITARY-HIGH-ALERT + AL AMERI DEFERRAL CARRIES + specific-Aug-7-special-ops-postpone-detail-C261.

• 🔴🔴🔴 SAUDI "BRACING FOR MULTIPLE COORDINATED ATTACKS" CARRIES from C259.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + TRUMP-REJECTION CARRIES — materially superseded by Pezeshkian-claim + Zolghadr-6-demand + Oman-FM-condemnation of Iran.

• 🟡 TRUMP "MOVING ALONG" CARRIES from C258/C259 — no fresh Sun-morning/afternoon Trump statement yet; watch Sun-afternoon Truth Social window (first Trump-response opportunity to Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC + Oman-condemnation).

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ-ZAMIR BLUTH CRISIS + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY AUG-5 + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL + JPOST-"WITH OR WITHOUT DEAL" CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES; now materially superseded by Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 — denial-track collapsed.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" + TRUMP AUG-6 "MASSIVE AMOUNTS" COUNTER + APRIL-PRECEDENT-BOUNDED CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — no Pentagon response 9+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG + OPEC+ SEP-HIKE + IRAQ-TURKEY 170-200K + 750K FLOOR CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 (135 co-sponsors) HISTORICAL CARRIES; ADNOC + Pezeshkian-claim + 15-vessels-cumulative + 1-KIA + Oman-condemnation may catalyze fresh action next cycle.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 34th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-9 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED + IRAQ-KPLER 1 MB/D + 30-HUMANITARIAN-PERMITTED CARRIES.

• 🔴 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE PENDING 13th CYCLE; Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 may pre-empt or force Mojtaba-follow-up.

• 🔴 SPR ~304.8M MB / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+3 days).

• 🔴 UAE ADCOP WEST-EAST-PIPELINE 50% COMPLETE, EARLY-2027 TARGET, 3.6 MBD BY MID-2027 CARRIES + SURFACED-C261 — post-ADNOC-strike ADCOP-hardening urgency validated.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 163 / Ceasefire STATUS: PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-OF-ADNOC-STRIKE-C261 + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE-14-POINT-MoU-DETAILS-C261 + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-15-VESSELS-1-KIA-20-INJURED-C261 + OMAN-FM-PUBLIC-CONDEMNATION-OF-IRAN-C261 + MECCA-EGYPT-EXPANSION-SIGNAL-C261 + IRAQ-DUAL-TRACK-DEFERRAL-DETAIL-C261 + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT-C261. C261 confirms: (a) Pezeshkian personally owns the ADNOC-strike as MoU-breach-response — resolves C260 command-fracture watch-item as formal-Iran-doctrine; (b) Araghchi Article-Five detail — Iran-side positioning entire post-blockade-resumption as US-caused; (c) ADNOC cumulative 15 vessels + 1 KIA + 20 injured — retroactive war-crime-attribution hardening; (d) Oman FM publicly condemns Iran — first mediator-tier public-criticism = mediator-role-stress; (e) Mecca Egypt-expansion signal — bloc-formation trajectory visible; (f) Iraq dual-track deferral — Al Zaydi + Al Ameri specifics; (g) Hajideligani — Pezeshkian added to impeachment-threat list; (h) All other C260 substantive frameworks CARRIES. War cost $37.5B+ CARRIES. C260 → C261 (~3h delta Sun-morning-CEST → Sun-mid-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C261 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — PEZESHKIAN FORMAL CLAIM OF ADNOC-STRIKE-C261 + ARAGHCHI ARTICLE-FIVE C261; Zolghadr-6-demand CARRIES; Vance "Iran said max oil flow" MATERIALLY-FALSIFIED by Pezeshkian claim; SNSC-12-of-13 CARRIES; Mojtaba 13th cycle pending; US-response window OPEN 0-24h
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened-CARRIES + Katz-Zamir-Bluth-rupture + Zamir-2027-freeze CARRIES; Israel-leverage-opportunity-elevated post-Pezeshkian-formal-claim
• 🟢🟡🔴 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement "final stages" CARRIES; OMAN FM PUBLIC CONDEMNATION OF IRAN C261 = MEDIATOR-STRESS-SIGNAL — first Oman-public-criticism of Iran; joint-statement now materially at-risk
• 🟢🟡🔴 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure end-Aug→September-Edison-extension CARRIES; Qatar-condemned-ADNOC-C260 CARRIES = mediator-role-stress-signal
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened + Katz-Zamir-Bluth CARRIES + Zamir-2027-C260 CARRIES
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-hardened + IAEA-no-staff CARRIES 34th cycle
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint + Saudi-retaliation — Wafa/Daisy CARRIES + Saudi-Hodeidah + 12-missile-retaliation CARRIES; Saudi "bracing" C259 CARRIES
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iraq-front — PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert CARRIES + Al Ameri "special ops postpone" specific-detail-C261 extends; ADNOC-precedent may test-deferral 0-72h
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Sunni-bloc-formation-leg — Mecca Joint Defence Agreement CARRIES + Turkey-disclaimer C260 CARRIES + Egypt-expansion-signal-C261 EXTENDS bloc-formation trajectory
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 UAE-direct-target-leg — ADNOC-strike-Aug-8 CARRIES + cumulative 15-vessels + 1-KIA + 20-injured-C261 extends historical-liability

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Pezeshkian televised interview: formal-claim of ADNOC-strike + MoU-defense-doctrine
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Araghchi Article Five of 14-point June MoU detail
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW ADNOC official cumulative 15-vessels + 1-KIA + 20-injured update
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Oman FM public condemnation of Iran vessel-targeting
• 🟢🟡 NEW Mecca Egypt-expansion signal (Turkish FM Fidan)
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iraq dual-track deferral detail (Al Zaydi + Al Ameri special-ops postpone + Islamic Resistance in Iraq counter-response postpone)
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Hajideligani Paydari Front Pezeshkian-impeachment-threat
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES ADNOC missile strike Aug-8 + UAE/Qatar/Saudi condemnation
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Zolghadr SNSC 6-demand maximalist list
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES CENTCOM 53 vessels + 30-humanitarian + F-35C sorties
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES VP Vance "max oil flow" (materially-falsified)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Bessent "Hormuz irrelevant 2 years"
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES Turkey FM disclaimer + NATO Article-5 mirror
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Araghchi "Muslim unity" counter
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC-Aerospace separate-track
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Zamir 2027-freeze
• 🟢 CARRIES Italy FM Tajani-Araghchi call
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran-Oman joint-statement final-stages (now Oman-condemnation-C261-strained)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert
• 🟡 CARRIES Brent $82/WTI $78 Fri-Aug-7-close (weekend markets closed Sat/Sun)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US-ban-clause + Trump-admin-rejection (now superseded by Pezeshkian-claim)
• 🟡 CARRIES Trump "moving along" (no fresh Sun-morning/mid statement)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran Gharibabadi 4-commitment + Zolghadr-expansion
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Pezeshkian SNSC 12/13 voted MoU
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial (now superseded by Pezeshkian-claim)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu CBS uranium-endorsement + JPost hardening
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + APRIL-BOUNDED US munitions + Trump-"massive amounts"
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 shootdown Aug-3 (no Pentagon response)
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 Aug + OPEC+ Sep-hike + Iraq-Turkey 170-200K
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff (34th cycle)
• 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 CARRIES + Khasab-18nm Aug-8 CARRIES from C260
• 🔴 Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES
• 🔴 Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 CARRIES
• 🔴 "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC vote C261 (fresh material now includes Pezeshkian-claim + Oman-condemnation)
• 🔴 Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response PENDING (13th cycle)

• All Iran/Israel/Lebanon/US KIA/wounded figures CARRY unchanged from C260 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~3h window)
• NEW C261: ADNOC 1 crew killed + 20 injured cumulatively across 15 vessels since Feb-28 (per ADNOC official statement) — retroactive-cumulative-surfacing
• Total war deaths: 8,981–18,315 CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wiki / 3,636 HRANA / 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,333+ killed CARRIES
• US KIA/wounded: 18 KIA / 687 wounded CARRIES
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss: ~$1B / 24+ airframes CARRIES

Net ceasefire trajectory C261: The C260 kinetic-escalation (ADNOC-strike) + institutional-Iran-hardening (Zolghadr-6-demand) is JOINED at C261 by PRESIDENTIAL-TIER FORMAL-CLAIM (Pezeshkian) + ARTICLE-FIVE-14-POINT-MoU-BASELINE (Araghchi) + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-WAR-CRIME-ATTRIBUTION (15+1-KIA+20-injured) + MEDIATOR-STRESS-SIGNAL (Oman FM condemns Iran), producing DEEPER-COLLAPSE of the near-term deal-window than at C260 morning. The Pezeshkian-formal-claim closes the C260 command-fracture watch-item as formal-Iran-doctrine of MoU-defense-strikes on commercial vessels, which is deal-terminal for the Trump-admin post-Vance-Aug-8-cited-commitment. The Araghchi Article-Five detail is DOUBLE-EDGED: it hardens Iran's US-attribution-framing (worse for deal) but also identifies a specific compensation-mechanism (US-side goodwill-payment could formally resolve grievance) — this may be the intended-negotiating-open-door despite hard-optics. The Oman FM condemnation is the mediator-role-stress-signal absent from C260 — first public-Oman-criticism-of-Iran since mediator-role began; joint-statement now materially strained. Revised C261 base-case 15-30% Sun-Mon-Tue Aug-9-11 modified-partial announcement (requires Pezeshkian-walk-back-of-formal-claim AND Iran-side coherent-response to ADNOC-cumulative AND Trump-restraint AND Oman-mediator-role-preserved), 35-50% Sun-Mon-Tue slippage into Aug-12+ (Iran leverages formal-claim + Article-Five + Zolghadr; Trump-admin restraint or sanctions-tightening; Oman mediator-role partially rescued), 30-45% deal-collapse tail (Pezeshkian-formal-claim represents formal-Iran-doctrine incompatible with any Trump-signable-deal-content; Netanyahu leverages ADNOC + Sunni-bloc-cover + Pezeshkian-formal-claim for "round 2" strike-plan pre-emption; Oman formally withdraws mediator-role). Mon-Aug-10-open Brent watch — expected direction MODESTLY-HIGHER on Pezeshkian-formal-claim of ADNOC + Zolghadr + Article-Five + Oman-mediator-stress; expected range $84-$88 open with volatility-band $80-$95 through Wed-Aug-12, upper-bound $95 favored on Pezeshkian-claim.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: ~94 vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES + C261 no NEW-Aug-9 kinetic through mid-CEST); ADNOC official-cumulative-count now 15 ADNOC vessels since Feb-28 with 1 crew KIA + 20 injured (previously buried; surfaced Aug-8 per NBC + The National ADNOC official statement); Iran International "16 total vessels attacked" methodology-consistent (1-vessel-discrepancy); 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi-blockade CARRIES; C261 window (~3h) fresh: NONE beyond C260 ADNOC-strike (Pezeshkian formal-claim is retroactive attribution, not new kinetic).

Neutral-state-infrastructure attack marker (C261): ADNOC-strike + Ras Laffan (Qatar) March-18 + Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 = 3 confirmed direct-strikes on neutral-Gulf-state energy-infrastructure since war-onset CARRIES; Pezeshkian-formal-claim-C261 crowns ADNOC-strike as formal-Iran-doctrine — retroactively hardens neutral-state-strike-attribution.

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C261; CARRIES.

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts (CARRIES from C258):

• Goldman: $85-95 Q3 range CARRIES
• JPM: "$95 midpoint if deal materializes; $110-125 if collapse" CARRIES
• EIA STEO Aug: $88.9 forecast CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE
• Bloomberg/oilprice.com: "market pricing 60% probability of interim deal" CARRIES (materially undermined by C261 Pezeshkian-formal-claim)

• Trump "moving along" CARRIES from C258/C259/C260 — no fresh Sun-morning/mid statement (first response-window to Pezeshkian-claim + Oman-condemnation OPENS Sun-afternoon)
• VP Vance Aug-8 "Iran told US allow max oil flow" CARRIES — MATERIALLY-FALSIFIED by Pezeshkian-formal-claim-of-strike-C261
• Bessent Aug-8 "Strait of Hormuz irrelevant within 2 years" CARRIES
• Iran SNSC Zolghadr 6-demand list CARRIES — Pezeshkian-formal-claim VALIDATES
• ADNOC missile-strike Aug-8 + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-C261 — supply-risk-pricing signal
• Turkey FM disclaimer Aug-8 + Egypt-expansion signal C261 — de-escalation-partial + bloc-expansion parallel
• Oman FM condemnation of Iran C261 — mediator-role-stress signal
• Iran-Oman "deal wouldn't reopen strait immediately" — DEAL vs OPEN gap surfacing CARRIES

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status

Country reserves matrix

Announcement-vs-physical-delivery gap CARRIES.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

• Pre-war Hormuz volume: ~20 mb/d
• Current bypass total (adjusted): ~7-8 mb/d realistic CARRIES
• GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable CARRIES
• NEW C261 CONFIRMATION: UAE ADCOP West-East pipeline 50% complete, early-2027 target — 3.6 Mbd bypass by mid-2027 = long-term-substitution path validates Bessent-2-year-doctrine but does NOT close 2026 gap
• NEW C261 RISK: Pezeshkian-formal-claim of ADNOC-strike + Iran retaliation-plan CARRIES elevates ADCOP-pipeline-kinetic-target-risk further; if ADCOP disrupted, GAP widens by ~1.4 mb/d

7. Maritime Insurance

Cost per VLCC voyage: Pre-war $250-300K → Current $800K-$21M per voyage CARRIES.

8. Shadow Fleet

C261 fresh signals: NONE in ~3h window (beyond Pezeshkian-formal-claim of ADNOC — Iran-official-tier, not shadow-fleet-tier).

Cumulative CARRIES:

• Shadow fleet size: 1,400+ vessels CARRIES
• No new C261 seizures, sanctions, or enforcement
• GRU/Wagner militarization CARRIES
• Arctic Metagaz-type incident risk CARRIES
• Iran shadow-fleet friendly-fire CARRIES (no fresh)

9. Country Response Matrix

Belligerents (C261 deltas only):

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C261 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Pezeshkian televised formal-claim of ADNOC-strike as MoU-breach-response Aug-8/9 — first presidential-tier ownership; positions Iran-side commercial-vessel-strikes as legitimate MoU-defense-doctrine; will "strongly defend the MoU signed with the US in June"; resolves C260 command-fracture watch-item as formal-Iran-claim.
2. Araghchi Article-Five 14-point June MoU detail — Iran "makes arrangements" for Hormuz transits; 60%-normal-traffic reached within 2 weeks post-MoU; US allegedly "deliberately violated" via unauthorized alternative routes/vessel-redirection; reopening tied to US-compensation for MoU-violations.
3. ADNOC official cumulative statement — 15 vessels since Feb-28, 1 crew KIA + 20 injured cumulative — retroactive material-adverse revision vs C260 "no casualties" single-strike framing.
4. Oman FM public condemnation of Iran vessel-targeting — first mediator-tier public-criticism of Iran; "puts progress in talks at risk"; "violation of international law and sovereignty of territorial waters"; "threat to safety of maritime navigation and regional security" — MEDIATOR-ROLE-STRESS-SIGNAL.
5. Mecca Pact Egypt-expansion signal — Turkish FM Fidan: Egypt "natural partner"; pending outstanding technical issues; bloc-formation trajectory visible.
6. Iraq dual-track deferral detail — Al Zaydi + Al Ameri specifically-postpone "special operations" against militias suspected of Saudi-attack-involvement (Aug-7); Islamic Resistance in Iraq simultaneously-postpone counter-response via Badr mediation; fragile dual-track hold.
7. Hajideligani Paydari Front Pezeshkian-impeachment threat — Araghchi + Pezeshkian both threatened; NO formal filing through Aug-7 cutoff; procedural-restraint holds under wartime-doctrine.
8. UAE West-East-pipeline 50% complete, early-2027 target, 3.6 Mbd by mid-2027 — validates Bessent-2-year-substitution-doctrine but does not close 2026 GAP.

(b) Structural Locks Status (C261)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟡 VOLATILE-CARRIES + WEEKEND-CLOSED + MON-REPRICE-DEEPENED-BY-PEZESHKIAN-CLAIM — Brent ~$82-83.55 / WTI ~$78 Fri-close CARRIES; Sat/Sun no trading; Mon-Aug-10-open expected higher on Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Zolghadr + Article-Five + Oman-mediator-stress; expected range $84-$88, upper-bound $95 favored. TIGHTENING (deepened reprice-risk).
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES — Iraq-Turkey + OPEC+ Sep + CPC + Kpler ~1 + 30-humanitarian-permitted CARRIES. LOOSENING (marginal).
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴 HOLDING + PEZESHKIAN-DEEPENS-DELAY-C261 — Pezeshkian-formal-claim of commercial-vessel-strikes-as-doctrine pushes P&I re-entry-probability into Q4-2026 or 2027. TIGHTENING (deepened).
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-COMMITMENT-HARDENS-C261 — Pezeshkian-tier commitment to future MoU-defense strikes hardens crew-refusal case; fixture cancellation-acceleration expected Mon-Aug-10. TIGHTENING (deepened).
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM + ARAGHCHI-ARTICLE-FIVE + ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + US-BAN-FAULT-LINE + MECCA-CARRIES + EGYPT-EXPANSION — Iran now positioned to blame US for entire post-blockade closure via Article-Five detail; Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Zolghadr-6-demand joint-effect materially collapses near-term deal-window. TIGHTENING (severe-deepened).
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 NETANYAHU-JPOST-HARDENED + IAEA-34TH-CYCLE + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + PAKISTAN-NUCLEAR-IN-MECCA-PACT CARRIES. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴🔴 HOUTHI + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE + SAUDI-HODEIDAH + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEADLINE-EXPIRED + AL-AMERI-DEFERRAL-DETAIL-C261 + MECCA + TURKEY-DISCLAIMER + EGYPT-EXPANSION-SIGNAL-C261 + ADNOC-STRIKE + UAE-DIRECT-TARGET — bloc-formation trajectory + UAE-direct-target-status. TIGHTENING (severe-deepened by Egypt-expansion-signal).
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED + PAKISTAN-CAPABILITY + CENTCOM-TEMPO + F-35C-SORTIES + ADNOC-STRIKE-VALIDATES + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-VALIDATES-IRAN-DOCTRINE-C261. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴🔴 HOUTHI-WAFA-DAISY + SAUDI-HODEIDAH + SAUDI-BRACING + ADNOC-STRIKE + PEZESHKIAN-FORMAL-CLAIM-HARDENS-HORMUZ-DOCTRINE-C261. TIGHTENING (severe).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13 + MOJTABA-13TH-CYCLE-PENDING + ZOLGHADR-6-DEMAND + ARAGHCHI-IMPEACHMENT-PREP + IRGC-AEROSPACE-SEPARATE-TRACK + ISRAELI-KATZ-ZAMIR-BLUTH + ZAMIR-2027-FREEZE + PEZESHKIAN-"WILL-NOT-YIELD" + PEZESHKIAN-PERSONALLY-OWNS-ADNOC-STRIKE-C261 + HAJIDELIGANI-PEZESHKIAN-IMPEACHMENT-THREAT-C261 + OMAN-FM-CONDEMNATION-OF-IRAN-C261 = MEDIATOR-STRESS — Iran internal-fracture-widening + Israeli hardening + Oman-mediator-stress. TIGHTENING (deepened at all three sides).
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴 QATAR-END-AUGUST + EDISON-SEPTEMBER + $20B-LOST + 21-CARGOES + ADNOC-CUMULATIVE-15-VESSELS-1-KIA-20-INJURED-C261 + ADCOP-ELEVATED-RISK + WEST-EAST-2027-VALIDATED-C261 — force-majeure structural CARRIES; ADNOC hull-damage retroactively-hardened; long-term-substitution-visible (Bessent-doctrine validated). TIGHTENING (short-term) + LONG-TERM-SUBSTITUTION-VISIBLE.

(c) Critical Watch (0-72h C261)

1. Trump admin response to Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Vance-cited-commitment-falsification + Oman-condemnation — Sun-afternoon Truth Social first-response window OPEN NOW; April-precedent-restraint vs new-strike-framework vs sanctions-tightening vs walk-away.
2. UAE response beyond diplomatic condemnation — sanctions, expulsion, coalition-request, ADCOP-hardening; ADNOC official cumulative statement (15-vessels-1-KIA-20-injured) may catalyze escalated posture.
3. Iran follow-through kinetic proving MoU-defense-doctrine commitment — or de-escalates on Trump-response.
4. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication — Sun-Mon window; must reconcile with Pezeshkian-claim + Zolghadr-6-demand + Oman-FM-condemnation.
5. Oman-mediator-role formal preservation or withdrawal — post-Aug-8 public-condemnation, watch for Iran-side response to Oman-tier public-criticism.
6. Mojtaba-Khamenei sign-off — 13th cycle pending; Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Zolghadr-6-demand may reflect Mojtaba-tier hardening supersession.
7. Iran parliament Hajideligani + ultrahardliner formal impeachment-filing — Araghchi and/or Pezeshkian; procedural-restraint under wartime-doctrine may hold.
8. Bahrain UNSC fresh-vote leveraging Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC-cumulative + Oman-FM-condemnation + UNSC 2817 flagrant-violation.
9. Brent Mon-Aug-10-open direction — expected higher $84-$88 with $95 upper-bound favored on Pezeshkian-claim; above-$95 = deep-escalation-pricing; sub-$80 = deep de-escalation (unlikely).
10. Israel — Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis + Israel-leverage of Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Sunni-bloc-cover for "round 2" strike-plan pre-emption.
11. Egypt formal Mecca-pact accession or delay — post-Fidan-signal; would extend bloc-formation to 4 signatories.
12. Iraqi-militia adherence to Al Ameri-deferral — Pezeshkian-formal-claim-precedent may test-adherence.
13. Additional Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic — post-Pezeshkian-formal-claim doctrine-consistency watch.
14. EIA weekly Aug-12 — T+3 days; SPR-draw continuation.
15. IAEA Grossi Aug-9/10 — 34-cycle silence; any statement material.
16. P&I insurance response to Pezeshkian-formal-claim — premium repricing Mon-Aug-10 hardened case.
17. VLCC day-rate repricing Mon-Aug-10 — expected upward with $95 upper-bound.
18. Fixture cancellation acceleration Mon-Aug-10 — post-Pezeshkian-claim watch.
19. Iran command-clarification — formal-diplomatic-track (now Pezeshkian-crowned) vs IRGC-Aerospace-track alignment.
20. Turkey Iran-diplomatic-channel — post-Fidan disclaimer, watch for Iran-Turkey engagement.
21. US Mecca-pact posture — still unresolved.
22. Iran-side proposal of US-compensation-mechanism — Araghchi-Article-Five detail identifies a specific compensation-based-open-door; watch whether Iran proposes concrete-mechanism or holds maximalist-demand-framing.

(d) Net Assessment

Overall crisis trajectory C261: The C260 kinetic-escalation + institutional-Iran-hardening pattern has been DEEPENED at C261 by presidential-tier formal-claim (Pezeshkian personally owns the ADNOC-strike) + Article-Five 14-point-MoU-baseline detail (Iran positions entire post-blockade period as US-caused) + ADNOC-cumulative retroactive war-crime-attribution surfacing (1 KIA + 20 injured across 15 vessels since Feb-28) + Oman-FM public condemnation of Iran (first mediator-tier public-criticism = mediator-role-stress) + Mecca Egypt-expansion signal (bloc-formation trajectory visible), producing DEEPER-COLLAPSE of near-term deal-window than at C260. The Pezeshkian-formal-claim closes the C260 command-fracture watch-item as formal-Iran-doctrine of MoU-defense-strikes on commercial vessels; the Araghchi Article-Five detail is a double-edged move — it hardens Iran's US-attribution-framing (worse for deal) but identifies a specific compensation-mechanism-open-door (US-side goodwill-payment could formally resolve grievance). The Oman FM condemnation is the mediator-role-stress-signal absent from C260 — first public Oman-criticism of Iran since mediator-role began; joint-statement now materially strained. Revised C261 base-case 15-30% Sun-Mon-Tue Aug-9-11 modified-partial announcement (requires Pezeshkian-walk-back-of-claim AND Iran-side coherent-response to ADNOC-cumulative AND Trump-restraint AND Oman-mediator-role-preserved), 35-50% Sun-Mon-Tue slippage into Aug-12+ (Iran leverages formal-claim + Article-Five + Zolghadr; Trump-admin restraint or sanctions-tightening; Oman mediator partial-rescue), 30-45% deal-collapse tail (Pezeshkian-formal-claim represents incompatible-with-Trump-signable-deal-content; Netanyahu leverages ADNOC + Sunni-bloc-cover + Pezeshkian-formal-claim for "round 2" strike-plan pre-emption; Oman formally withdraws mediator-role).

What the structural locks pattern implies: 10 of 11 locks TIGHTENING with only Supply LOOSENING marginally. The C261 pattern is the DEEPEST net-tightening since the Jul-14 blockade resumption + C260 morning. Duration-lock has hardened to "severe-deepened" tier via Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Araghchi Article-Five + Zolghadr-6-demand + IRGC-Aerospace-separate-track. Geographic-lock has hardened via UAE-direct-target-status + Mecca-Egypt-expansion-signal (bloc-formation trajectory). Dual/Triple Chokepoint has hardened via Hormuz-Iran-doctrine-formalization + Saudi-Yemen-continuation-risk. Leadership-lock shows internal-Iran-fracture-widening (parliamentary-impeachment vs SNSC-Secretary-hardening vs Pezeshkian-formal-claim) AND Israeli institutional-hardening (Zamir-2027-freeze) AND Oman-mediator-stress simultaneously. Insurance-lock deeply-delayed post-Pezeshkian-formal-claim. Energy-Infrastructure short-term-tightened by ADNOC-cumulative but long-term-substitution visible via UAE West-East 2027-target (Bessent-doctrine validated). Only Supply provides marginal-easing. Net: 1 loosening + 10 tightening; near-term deal-window deeper-collapsed vs C260 morning; long-term-substitution-path visible.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: Base-case Mon-Aug-10 Brent-open $84-$88 range with volatility-band $80-$95 through Wed-Aug-12, $95 upper-bound favored on Pezeshkian-claim; deal-track either extends into slippage-tail (35-50%) or collapses (30-45%); insurance-restoration pushed into Q4-2026 or 2027; Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb + Saudi retaliation independent of Hormuz-track; ADNOC-strike doctrine formalized by Pezeshkian may cascade to ADCOP-pipeline-strike-risk (if realized, GAP widens by ~1.4 to 13.4-14.4); Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-yr-offline + end-August + Edison-September structural; SPR-drawdown continues; Iraq-front kinetic-risk elevated by ADNOC-precedent-tests-Al-Ameri-deferral; Iran internal-fracture-widening + Israeli institutional-Zamir-2027-hardening + Oman-mediator-stress produce simultaneous three-sided leadership-tier tightening. Downside-tail 35-45%: Mojtaba ratifies Zolghadr-6-demand + Netanyahu leverages ADNOC + Sunni-bloc-cover + Pezeshkian-formal-claim for "round 2" strike-plan pre-emption + Trump-decapitation-frame despite munitions-constraint + full-collapse to renewed active-war + Saudi-Yemen open kinetic + Iraqi-militia break-ranks post-ADNOC + Pezeshkian-formal-precedent + ADCOP-pipeline-strike + Oman formal-withdrawal-of-mediator-role.

Key uncertainties: (a) Whether Pezeshkian-formal-claim represents Mojtaba-tier ratification or Pezeshkian-independent-institutional-move; (b) Whether Iran will follow-through kinetically on MoU-defense-doctrine or Pezeshkian-claim is rhetorical-cover for internal-hardliner-cover; (c) Whether Araghchi Article-Five compensation-open-door is genuine-negotiating-mechanism or maximalist-optics-cover; (d) Trump's next-move — counter-strike, sanctions, punitive-diplomatic, walk-away, or deal-restart-with-compensation-offer; (e) Whether Oman mediator-role formally-preserved despite public-condemnation of Iran; (f) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis breaks open or triggers "round 2" leveraging Pezeshkian-formal-claim + Sunni-bloc-cover; (g) Whether Iraqi-militia adheres to Al Ameri-deferral or breaks-ranks post-Pezeshkian-formal-precedent; (h) Brent Mon-Aug-10-open direction and depth of reprice; (i) Whether P&I insurance immediate-repricing Mon-Aug-10 escalates fixture-cancellation cascade; (j) Whether UAE announces coalition-request or ADCOP-hardening measures post-cumulative-1-KIA-surfacing; (k) Whether Egypt formally announces Mecca-pact accession; (l) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU or ratifies Zolghadr-expansion; (m) Whether Bahrain UNSC leverages Pezeshkian-formal-claim + ADNOC-cumulative + Oman-condemn for fresh vote.

Sources (C261 web sweep)

• UAE says Iran targeted ADNOC tanker in Strait of Hormuz - Türkiye Today
• Iran makes new strait demands, the UAE says a ship was targeted (NBC News)
• UAE Says Iran Attacked ADNOC Vessel With Missile in Strait of Hormuz (US News)
• Iran sets conditions for opening Strait of Hormuz after UAE says ship targeted (CNBC)
• UAE and Qatar condemn Iranian strike on Adnoc oil tanker (The National)
• UAE says Iran targeted ADNOC tanker in Strait of Hormuz, no casualties (Al Jazeera)
• Iran deliberates Hormuz arrangement amid uncertain prospects with US (Al Jazeera)
• ADNOC confirms one of its vessels targeted by missile while transiting Strait of Hormuz (Emirates News Agency / WAM)
• Deal with Oman on Hormuz "very close", reopening tied to US compensation for MoU violations, says Iran (Tribune India)
• August 8, 2026 – Iran demands concessions from US as it nears Strait of Hormuz deal with Oman (CNN)
• Deal with Oman on Hormuz very close, reopening tied to US compensation for MoU violations (ANI News)
• Iran FM Araghchi says Hormuz reopening hinges on "other conditions", compensation for US "violation" (Tribune India)
• US Deliberately Violated MoU on Strait of Hormuz: Araghchi (Deccan Chronicle)
• "Insisted on creating other routes": Araghchi accuses US of deliberately violating MoU condition over Strait of Hormuz (Times of Oman)
• Deal with Oman on Hormuz 'Very Close', Reopening Tied to US Compensation for MoU Violations (Republic World)
• Hormuz reopening depends on US, Iran says (Tehran Times)
• Iran and Oman agree route for ships in Strait of Hormuz (Euronews)
• Iran and Oman release joint statement on Strait of Hormuz (Marine Log)
• Hormuz deal 'close': What's the latest on each side's positions? (Al Jazeera)
• Iran says agreement on Hormuz shipping reached with Oman (Fortune)
• Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage; warns of third party obstruction (GlobalSecurity/IRNA)
• Iranian lawmaker threatens to impeach Foreign Minister Araghchi (Iran International)
• Turkiye says Mecca defence pact not aimed at Iran (Al Jazeera)
• Why Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey just signed a defense pact (Atlantic Council)
• Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan sign joint defence agreement: What's in it? (Al Jazeera)
• Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey Sign a Mutual Defense Pact (Foreign Policy)
• Institute for the Study of War — Iran Update Special Report, August 7, 2026 (X thread)
• Iran Update Evening Special Report: August 07, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• Iraqi forces on high alert as militia deadline for response to US-Saudi strikes expires (The National)
• Trust But Verify: Vance Says Iran Pledged Max Oil Flow / Bessent: Hormuz Will "Become Irrelevant" Within Two Years (Townhall)
• CENTCOM says it redirected 53 commercial vessels amid US blockade against Iran (Tribune India)
• CENTCOM says it redirected 53 commercial vessels amid US blockade against Iran (ANI News)
• Oil Extends Gains as Iran Strikes Targets in Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg)
• Crude Oil Price Today: Brent, WTI and the Hormuz Question (Vantage Markets)
• Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 304.8M bbl (July 31, 2026) (Vault Report)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure Into August (OilPrice.com)
• LNG market disruption: QatarEnergy extends force majeure with Edison (CNBC)
• Force majeure on QatarEnergy LNG extends to fourth month (AGBI)
• UAE Instructs ADNOC to Accelerate Pipeline Construction to Bypass Hormuz (Maritime Executive)
• Gulf States Race to Build Hormuz Bypass Infrastructure (Kpler)
• UAE fast tracks second West-East oil pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
• Shipping insurance surges again as attacks intensify over Strait of Hormuz (The National)
• Gulf war risk premiums topping double-digit millions of dollars per trip (Lloyd's List)
• Strait of Hormuz - Insurance Market (Strauss Center)
• Yemen's Houthis fire missiles, drones at Saudi Arabia in response to strikes on Hodeida (NBC News)
• Houthis escalate attacks in Red Sea and on Saudi Arabia (FDD Long War Journal)
• Tanker struck by unknown projectile off Oman, engine room damaged (Global Security/UKMTO)
• UKMTO reports explosions targeting two tankers near Oman (Al Arabiya)
• Tracking ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (NBC News)
• Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 160 | Live Tracker & Monitor (straits.live)
• Live Ship Data - Strait of Hormuz (hormuzmonitor.com)
• Report: Netanyahu furious with Katz over Bluth replacement (Times of Israel)
• Israel braces for renewed Iran fighting as Netanyahu, Katz cancel military ceremony (Ynetnews)
• Resolution 2817 (2026) (UNSCR)
• Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations (Al Jazeera)
• Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (Wikipedia)
• 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz campaign (Wikipedia)

Environment note (C261)

Several MCP servers currently require re-authorization (plugin:finance:ms365, plugin:marketing:ahrefs, plugin:marketing:amplitude, plugin:marketing:canva, plugin:marketing:figma, plugin:marketing:klaviyo, plugin:marketing:notion). None are needed for the Hormuz tracker sweep (WebSearch, file I/O, Apple Notes are sufficient); C261 completed without gap. Apple Notes Grok-bridge lookup surfaced only pre-May-2026 entries (34th consecutive cycle without fresh HORMUZ Grok note). Suggest re-authorizing in claude.ai connector settings when convenient — cadence-non-blocking.