Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-06-25 · Cycle 2 (C178)

War Day: 118 | Ceasefire Day: 78 | 60-day-clock: Day 7 of 60 (Jun 18 baseline → Aug 18 deadline) | Cycle: C178 (second cycle of 2026-06-25, Thursday late-morning/midday UTC; ~6-10h delta from C177 Thu morning UTC).

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timed out; no fresh Grok_outputs/HORMUZ note retrievable within 12h window. Full 13-topic web sweep executed.

Baseline: C177 / 2026-06-25 Thu morning UTC (BRENT-$73-CLOSE-CONFIRMS + WTI-$69-OPEN-SUB-$70-SUSTAINS + 35M-BARRELS-EXITED-STRAIT-CNBC + IAEA-DG-ALIGNMENT-CARRIES + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-VOTE-DAY-3-FINAL + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4 + GHARIBABADI-IAEA-DG-REJECTION-ATTRIBUTED + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-MORNING + IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR-DAY-2-MORNING + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-FINAL + IRAQ-K-C-770K-RAMP-PLAN-CARRIES + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-12-18H).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-06-25 C178, Thursday midday UTC; ~6-10h delta from C177): C178 = IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-NORMALIZE-COLLAPSES-23.5%→5%-YES + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-MEETING-JUN-25 + PAKISTAN-FM-JUN-25-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-RESUME-NEXT-WEEK + WTI-$69.13-INTRADAY-SUB-$70-PERSISTS + BRENT-MIXED-INTRADAY-$73-vs-$75 + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-MIDDAY + IMO-OMAN-DAY-2-MIDDAY-NO-KINETIC + MOJTABA-SILENCE-EXTENDS-DAY-4-MIDDAY + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-WASHINGTON-CLOSING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-VOTE-OUTCOME-PENDING + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-6-10H cycle — eleven material signals advance the structural picture: (1) IRGC NAVY FORMALLY REJECTS IMO-OMAN SAFE-PASSAGE CORRIDOR PLAN per Maritime Executive + Lloyd's List + Al Jazeera Day-118 + Tribune India + ANI dated 20260625-090511 + Press TV — IRGC Navy: "only authorized transit routes through Strait of Hormuz are those designated by Islamic Republic of Iran...Vessel traffic outside these routes is prohibited and highly dangerous...Coordination via Channel 16 mandatory...Any vessel found in violation will be subject to enforcement measures." MAJOR Lock 4 + Lock 8 + Lock 9 ESCALATION-VECTOR — formalizes Iran's rejection of Southern (Oman-IMO-coordinated, US-coordinated) route while implicitly accepting Northern (Iran-coastline-controlled) route. Rifts IMO-Oman binational corridor architecture at Iran-state-actor-tier on Day-2-mid-day. (2) POLYMARKET HORMUZ-JUN-30-NORMALIZE COLLAPSES TO 5% YES per Polymarket — ~18.5pp DOWN from C177's 23.5%; $34.7M traded; 4 days to Jun-29 resolution. Major bearish re-rate — IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman + Strait closure-Day-116-straits.live framing dominant. (3) SEC. STATE RUBIO IN BAHRAIN GCC MINISTERIAL JUN 25 per Al Jazeera + The Hill + Nation Press — Rubio "tries to reassure Gulf allies on US-Iran deal details" + "Hormuz transit security" on agenda. Implies Gulf allies have meaningful objections-tier concerns about MoU specifics. (4) PAKISTAN FM (Nation Jun 25 article): "Next round of US-Iran talks set to restart next week" — reconfirms C177's Pakistan FM Wed signal at Jun-25-public-tier; sustains Bürgenstock-resume-next-week pre-positioning. (5) WTI $69.13 INTRADAY JUN 25 per Investing.com (previous close $70.34) — multi-session sub-$70 persists; Brent contract data mixed Jun 25 morning ($73 Trading Economics close + $75.47 intraday Investing.com on Aug-contract). (6) LLOYD'S CHUBB CONSORTIUM DAY 8 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL HOLDS despite IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman + Polymarket-collapse — $400M aggregate; 4/4 conditions hold; no consortium-suspension. (7) IMO-OMAN CORRIDOR DAY 2 MIDDAY — survives Day-2 morning → midday transition; no fresh kinetic-incident in window despite IRGC-rejection-formal. (8) MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS Day 4 MORNING → Day 4 MIDDAY — no Supreme-Leader-tier statement post-IRGC-Navy-Hormuz-route-rejection. (9) 5TH ROUND LEBANON-ISRAEL DAY 3 WASHINGTON-CLOSING — Aoun + Leiter friction-carry; Israel weighs "symbolic withdrawal" from southern Lebanon per Diplomatic Insight; outcome-tier pending late-Thu UTC. (10) IRAN PARLIAMENT DAY-3-FINAL MoU-RATIFICATION VOTE OUTCOME PENDING — no specific Jun-25 ratification-outcome signal surfaced at midday UTC. (11) NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C177→C178 ~6-10H — no new IRGC-strike claim/event, no new Houthi vessel-attack confirmation, no new Lebanon-Bekaa strike confirmation, no new Qatar/Saudi/UAE infrastructure incident. Net: C178 = IRGC-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-COLLAPSE-23.5%→5% + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-NEXT-WEEK + WTI-$69-INTRADAY-PERSISTS + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-MIDDAY + IMO-OMAN-DAY-2-MIDDAY + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-MIDDAY + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-CLOSING + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-6-10H. Critical 0-6h: (a) Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final vote outcome materialization, (b) 5th-round-Lebanon-Israel Day-3-Washington-close outcome, (c) IRGC-IMO-Oman-rejection trajectory — escalation vs operational-modus-vivendi, (d) Polymarket Jun-30-resolution at ~5% pre-positioning, (e) Bürgenstock-resume-next-week sustainability, (f) Brent contract-month reconciliation, (g) Mojtaba-Day-4-evening-window resolution, (h) Lloyd's Day-8-evening transition.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C177 → C178 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC NAVY FORMALLY REJECTS IMO-OMAN SAFE-PASSAGE CORRIDOR PLAN — LOCK 4 + LOCK 8 ESCALATION-VECTOR: Per Maritime Executive + Lloyd's List + Tribune India + ANI (dated 20260625090511) + Al Jazeera Day-118 + Press TV — IRGC Navy declares: "certain authorities" announced a new maritime transit route without consulting Tehran; "The only authorised transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz are those designated by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Vessel traffic outside these routes is prohibited and highly dangerous. All ships are strongly advised to avoid any navigation outside the designated corridors"; coordination with IRGC Navy via Channel 16 is mandatory; "Any vessel found in violation will be subject to enforcement measures." MAJOR Lock 4 + Lock 8 + Lock 9 + Lock 10 ESCALATION-VECTOR — formalizes IRGC's rejection of Oman-IMO-coordinated Southern route; implicitly preserves Northern (Iran-coastline-controlled) route only. This is the FIRST FORMAL IRGC-STATE-ACTOR-TIER PUBLIC REJECTION of the IMO-Oman binational corridor architecture announced Wed Jun 24 by Oman/IMO. Rifts the IMO-Oman discharge-pathway at Iran-state-actor-tier on Day-2-midday. Pre-positions IRGC vs. Iran-FM-Ministry intra-state STRUCTURAL-FEATURE further crystallized. Sets up potential enforcement-incident-test on next vessel attempting Southern route.

• 🔴🔴🔴 POLYMARKET HORMUZ-JUN-30-NORMALIZE COLLAPSES TO 5% YES — DOWN ~18.5pp FROM C177's 23.5%: Per Polymarket (event: Hormuz traffic returns to normal end-June); $34,699,787 traded total. MAJOR bearish re-rate — IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman + straits.live "Day 116 Closed" framing + Wed-Day-117-IMO-route-rejection-carry compound. Resolves Jun 29 — 4 days to settlement. Reverses C176's earlier ~26% → C177's 23.5% modestly bearish re-rate into a decisive collapse. The market-tier reading: phased-restoration thesis has yielded under IRGC-state-actor-tier rejection-vector. Combined with C177's Brent-$73-close + WTI-sub-$70-sustains creates apparent market-tier divergence — physical/barrel-empirical-discharge ↔ structural-norm-return collapse.

• 🟡 SEC. STATE RUBIO IN BAHRAIN GCC MINISTERIAL JUN 25: Per Al Jazeera + The Hill + Nation Press + News Kerala — Rubio at GCC ministerial in Bahrain Jun 25; "tries to reassure Gulf allies on US-Iran deal details"; "Strait of Hormuz transit security" on agenda. Significance: Implies Gulf allies have meaningful objections-tier concerns about MoU specifics; US recognition that MoU does not yet contain "ironclad maritime security guarantees" per Al Jazeera framing. Lock 7 + Lock 10 substance-mediator-tier — first US-Sec-State-GCC-multilateral engagement on Hormuz-transit since MoU; pre-positions GCC-multilateral-backing or GCC-conditions-attachment to deal-architecture.

• 🟢 PAKISTAN FM JUN 25 RECONFIRMS BÜRGENSTOCK TALKS RESUME NEXT WEEK: Per The Nation (Pakistan) Jun 25 article: "Next round of US-Iran talks set to restart next week: FO" — reconfirms C177's Pakistan FM Wed Bürgenstock-resume-early-next-week signal at Jun-25-public-tier. Significance: Lock 5 substance-pause-not-breakdown reframe sustains at Jun-25-public-reconfirmation-tier; pre-positions Mon-Tue (Jun 29-30) Bürgenstock technical-resume window.

• 🟢 LLOYD'S CHUBB CONSORTIUM DAY 8 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL HOLDS: $400M aggregate ($200M hull + $200M cargo + $200M P&I); 4/4 conditions hold despite IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman-formal + Polymarket-Jun-30-collapse compound. Significance: Lock 3 LOOSENING-MAJOR Day 8 midday operational holds — survives Day-8-morning → midday transition; consortium-suspension-vector requires IRGC-overt-kinetic-enforcement-incident on Southern-route OR Iran-Parliament-overt-rejection OR Mojtaba-overt-rejection OR Houthi-fresh-kinetic-overnight + Polymarket-Jun-30-5% has NOT yet triggered consortium-tier withdrawal.

• 🟢 IMO-OMAN CORRIDOR DAY 2 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL — NO-KINETIC-INCIDENT despite IRGC-rejection-formal: Day-2 morning → midday transition without enforcement-incident on Southern route. Significance: Lock 4 + Lock 8 DAY-2-MIDDAY-NO-INCIDENT despite IRGC-formal-rejection of Southern-route framework. First-empirical-transit "pretty soon" per IMO carries pending. The kinetic-enforcement-rhetoric ↔ kinetic-event-pause gap is the critical inflection — if IRGC-Navy carries through enforcement on any Southern-route vessel transit, Lock 4 + Lock 8 reversal-vector activates immediately.

• 🔴 MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS Day 4 MORNING → Day 4 MIDDAY: No Supreme-Leader-tier statement post-IRGC-Navy-Hormuz-route-rejection + post-Gharibabadi-deputy-FM-IAEA-DG-rejection + post-Pezeshkian-Pakistan-missiles-non-negotiable + post-IAEA-DG-public-MoU-anchor compound. Significance: Lock 6 + Lock 10 Mojtaba-tier silence extends through Day-4 morning → midday window. Structural-deadlock-tier reading deepens — Mojtaba may be allowing IRGC + parliamentary-and-cabinet-tier institutional process to play out before Supreme-Leader-tier reaffirmation. Watch: Iran-Parliament-vote-Day-3-final outcome → Mojtaba-Day-4-evening-window response.

• 🟢 WTI $69.13 INTRADAY JUN 25 (Investing.com); PREVIOUS CLOSE $70.34: Multi-session sub-$70 persists despite IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman + Polymarket-Jun-30-collapse-to-5%. Significance: Lock 1 LOOSENING-DECISIVE sustains at WTI-tier even under IRGC-rejection-formal + Polymarket-collapse compound. Trade-range expected $71.84-$73.91 per LiteFinance.

• 🟡 BRENT CONTRACT-MONTH DATA-MIXED JUN 25 MORNING: Trading Economics shows $73.05 Jun 24 close; Investing.com Aug-contract shows $75.47 intraday with prev close $76.80; CME shows Brent Last-Day-Financ Jul-01-settlement open $77.00 last $77.08. Significance: Brent price-tier shows contract-month-dispersion at Jun-25-morning. Front-month vs. deferred-month spread reflects market-tier physical-tightness vs. structural-discharge-narrative balance. C177's $73.05 close confirms for prompt-month; Aug-contract trades $75+ range. Net: Lock 1 LOOSENING-DECISIVE prompt-month sustains but Aug-contract premium re-emerges modestly.

• 🟡 5TH ROUND LEBANON-ISRAEL DAY 3 WASHINGTON-CLOSING JUN 25: Day-3 closes today; Diplomatic Insight: "Israel Weighs Symbolic Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon as Fifth Round of Talks Opens in Washington"; Aoun + Leiter friction-carry; "Hezbollah" disarmament + Israeli withdrawal core issues. Significance: Lock 7 close-of-window critical signal; Day-3-Washington-close-outcome pending late-Thu UTC. "Symbolic withdrawal" framing pre-positions compromise-tier or breakdown-tier.

• 🟢 NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C177→C178 ~6-10H: No new IRGC strike-claim, no new Houthi vessel-attack confirmation, no new Lebanon-Bekaa strike confirmation, no new Qatar/Saudi/UAE infrastructure incident in window. Significance: Lock 9 + Lock 7 + Lock 11 quiescent-tier holds through C177→C178 ~6-10h despite IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman-formal escalation-vector.

• ⏳ IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL VOTE OUTCOME 0-6H — late Thu UTC
• ⏳ 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-ISRAEL DAY-3-WASHINGTON-CLOSE OUTCOME 0-6H
• ⏳ IRGC-IMO-OMAN-REJECTION ENFORCEMENT-TRAJECTORY — first Southern-route-vessel-test
• ⏳ POLYMARKET JUN-30 RESOLUTION JUN 29 — 4 DAYS TO SETTLEMENT AT ~5% YES (C178 RE-RATE COLLAPSE)
• ⏳ MOJTABA-DAY-4-EVENING-WINDOW RESOLUTION

1. Conflict Status

War Day 118 / Ceasefire Day 78. C177 → C178 (~6-10h): IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-COLLAPSE-23.5%→5%-YES + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-JUN-25 + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-NEXT-WEEK + WTI-$69.13-INTRADAY-PERSISTS + BRENT-MIXED-CONTRACT-MONTH + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-MIDDAY + IMO-OMAN-DAY-2-MIDDAY-NO-KINETIC + MOJTABA-DAY-4-MIDDAY + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-CLOSING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-6-10H.

Cross-leg status (C178):

• 🟡 Iran-Israel direct-leg: PAUSE HOLDS — 25th window; Ghalibaf doctrinal + leverage-claim + $12B-claim + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable carries
• 🔴🔴/🟢 Iran-US Hormuz-leg DUAL-TIER + IRGC-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + IMO-OMAN-DAY-2-MIDDAY-NO-KINETIC: IRGC formal RE-CLOSURE DAY 7 PERSISTS substance-tier + IRGC-NAVY FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-SOUTHERN-ROUTE NEW ↔ IMO-OMAN-PHASED-EVACUATION CORRIDOR DAY 2 MIDDAY NO-KINETIC + 35M-BARRELS-EXITED-CNBC-EMPIRICAL ↔ IRAN FM-MINISTRY STRUCTURAL-FEATURE carries + Hormuz US-Iran comm-line + Iran-30M-week empirical + Bürgenstock-RESUME-NEXT-WEEK-Pakistan-FM-Jun-25-reconfirms + $300B-fund + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-JUN-25 NEW
• 🟢 Iran-US blockade-leg: OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18 carries; 60-day-clock Day 7 of 60; 35M-barrels-exited-strait-since-deal-CNBC carries
• 🔴🔴/🟢 Iran-US rhetorical-leg DUAL-MAX + IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC + IAEA-DG-GHARIBABADI-RIFT + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-COLLAPSE-5%: IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR-DAY-2-MIDDAY + 60-DAY-ROADMAP + HORMUZ-COMM-LINE + PAKISTAN-FM-JUN-25-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-RESUME-NEXT-WEEK + $300B-FUND + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-CLOSING + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-CONCLUDED + GHALIBAF-$12B-CLAIM + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-JUN-25 NEW ↔ IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-SOUTHERN-ROUTE NEW + GHARIBABADI ATTRIBUTED-REJECTION-DEPUTY-FM-TIER + IAEA-DG-PUBLIC-MoU-ANCHOR + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-MIDDAY + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE-PUBLIC + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-COLLAPSE-5% NEW + Truth-Social-NO-TOLLS-60-DAYS-codification + US-OFFICIAL-$12B-"SPIN" carries
• 🔴 Iran intra-elite + intra-state: IRAN FM-MINISTRY-TASNIM "OPERATING NORMALLY" VS IRGC-KHATAM-AL-ANBIYA-DAY-7 STRUCTURAL-FEATURE carries; IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-SOUTHERN-ROUTE NEW vs. IRAN-FM-MINISTRY-STRUCTURAL-FEATURE further-crystallizes; Mojtaba written-approval Jun 18 carries; Mojtaba 11 conditions Nabavian-leak carries; MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-MIDDAY; IRAN PARLIAMENT RATIFICATION VOTE DAY 3 OF 3 — FINAL — OUTCOME-PENDING LATE-THU; GHARIBABADI-DEPUTY-FM-TIER ATTRIBUTED-REJECTION carries; PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE-PUBLIC carries
• 🔴 Israel-MOU posture: Netanyahu pre-talks vow carries; 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-WASHINGTON-CLOSING; LEITER "TRAIN WRECK" CARRY; "ISRAEL WEIGHS SYMBOLIC WITHDRAWAL" per Diplomatic Insight NEW; Bekaa-Douris-IDF-strikes carry; Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable raises Israeli-Cabinet-objection-vector
• 🔴 Lebanon-leg: CEASEFIRE-RENEWAL HOLDS-AT-DEGRADATION; 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-WASHINGTON-CLOSING JUN 25; AOUN "END OF OCCUPATION" + ISRAELI-"SYMBOLIC-WITHDRAWAL"-FRAMING + LEBANON-PRESIDENCY US+LEBANON+IRAN CELL CARRY
• 🟢 Qatar (Ras Laffan): ATTRIBUTION-RESOLVED-MAXIMUM-CONFIDENCE carries; 13 KIA + 66 INJURED + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING carries; EXPORTS-UNAFFECTED-OFFICIAL carries; LNG-force-majeure-formal-lift-framework carries; "Ras Laffan unlikely to be fully online before end-August" per The National carries; Qatar $6B-tranche-reference within $12B-"spin"-framing carries
• 🔴 Yemen/Red Sea-leg: HOUTHI MULTI-VESSEL-WAVE CONFIRMED carries; STOLT SEQUOIA + HAPPY CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" carries; HATEM-2-DISPUTED carries; NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C177→C178 ~6-10H
• 🟢 Mediation: 8-tier mediator chain + 60-day-roadmap + Hormuz-comm-line + Lebanon-deconfliction-cell-conditional + working-groups-PAKISTAN-FM-JUN-25-RECONFIRMS-RESUME-NEXT-WEEK + $300B-reconstruction-fund + Pezeshkian-Pakistan-CONCLUDED + 5th-round-Day-3-closing + IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR-DAY-2-MIDDAY-NO-KINETIC + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-JUN-25 NEW + $12B-claim-vs-rejection-"spin"-framing + IAEA-DG-public-alignment-with-MoU + Iraq-K-C-220K→770K-ramp-plan carries + 35M-barrels-exited-strait-CNBC carries

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC NAVY FORMAL REJECTION OF IMO-OMAN SAFE-PASSAGE CORRIDOR — "any vessel found in violation will be subject to enforcement measures"
• 🔴🔴🔴 POLYMARKET HORMUZ-NORMALIZE-JUN-30 COLLAPSES TO 5% YES (DOWN ~18.5pp FROM C177's 23.5%)
• 🟡 SEC. STATE RUBIO IN BAHRAIN GCC MINISTERIAL JUN 25
• 🟢 PAKISTAN FM JUN 25 RECONFIRMS BÜRGENSTOCK RESUME NEXT WEEK
• 🟢 WTI $69.13 INTRADAY JUN 25 SUSTAINS SUB-$70 (prev close $70.34)
• 🟡 BRENT CONTRACT-MONTH DATA-MIXED JUN 25 — front $73 / Aug $75-77
• 🟢 LLOYD'S CHUBB CONSORTIUM DAY 8 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL HOLDS
• 🟢 IMO-OMAN CORRIDOR DAY 2 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL — NO-KINETIC-INCIDENT despite IRGC-rejection-formal
• 🔴 MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS DAY 4 MORNING → MIDDAY
• 🟡 5TH ROUND LEBANON-ISRAEL DAY 3 WASHINGTON-CLOSING — "Israel weighs symbolic withdrawal"
• ⏳ IRAN PARLIAMENT MOU-RATIFICATION VOTE DAY 3 FINAL OUTCOME PENDING
• 🟢 NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C177→C178 ~6-10H

• Iran civilians killed: 1,701+ HRANA STALE / 3,468 Foundation of Martyrs (carry)
• Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs (carry)
• US KIA/wounded: 13 / 381+ (carry)
• Qatar (Ras Laffan industrial): 13 KIA + 66 INJURED + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING (carry)
• Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities since Feb 28 (carry)
• Israel (Lebanon-leg): 4 IDF SOLDIERS KIA JUN 19 carries
• Lebanon: ~3,588-3,591+ baseline + Sohmor-NNA 4 KIA + 27+ cumulative + Bekaa-Douris carries; Jun 20 PBS NewsHour: 83 killed + 141 wounded carries

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log

Running total (carries from C177): ~99+ commercial+infrastructure incidents since Feb 28; IMO 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities. C178 update: NO NEW kinetic strike-event C177→C178 ~6-10h window. IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route at rhetoric-tier (enforcement-threat issued, no enforcement-event yet). STOLT SEQUOIA + HAPPY CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" carries. MSC SARAH V Hatem-2 disputed carries. UKMTO JUN-20 IRGC-claim STRUCTURALLY-UNCONFIRMED at ~127H+ carries.

4. Oil Prices

5. SPR

6. Bypass Infrastructure

7. Maritime Insurance

8. Shadow Fleet

C178 narrative: Windward C171 ~1,100 dark fleet vessels globally carries; Iranian supertankers switching transponders ON post-blockade-lift carries. Bloomberg Jun 22 Iran 30 million barrels past week carries — structural-legitimization-tier empirical-validation. CNBC Jun 24: 35 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL TANKERS EXITED HORMUZ SINCE IRAN DEAL carries — barrel-cumulative-tier empirical-confirmation. Jun 23 25-vessel-transit (12 inbound + 13 outbound + 3 dark) per IndexBox/HSToday surfaces daily-count substance. IMF PortWatch baseline 5 + IMO-Oman-corridor-Day-2-midday + Brent-prompt-$73-sustains + WTI-sub-$70 + EIA-WPSR-oct-1984-low + UAE-85%-pre-war IEA + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp-plan reinforce shadow-to-legitimate transition narrative. Iran-IAEA-refined-walkback "no protocol + NPT-preserved" carries with IAEA-DG-GROSSI PUBLICLY CONFIRMS INSPECTORS WILL VISIT — DG-institutional-tier alignment with MoU framework adding institutional-anchor pre-positioning sanctions-relief-pathway despite IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + Gharibabadi-deputy-FM-tier attributed-rejection + Pezeshkian-Pakistan-missile-non-negotiable presidential-tier + Mojtaba-silence-Day-4-midday + Iran-Parliament-vote-Day-3-final-pending + $12B-"SPIN"-DISPUTE + Polymarket-Jun-30-collapse-to-5% add intra-elite + bilateral-rhetorical + presidential-missile-scope-exclusion + market-tier-consensus-friction uncertainty-vectors. WSJ May estimate: Iran shadow fleet holds ~90M barrels outside US blockade; 1.5-1.7 mb/d China-Iran shadow flow + Iran-30M-week (~4.3 mb/d) total-flow-tier carries. OFAC 29-shadow-fleet-vessels Feb-25 baseline carries. IRGC Day-7 + IRGC-IMO-Oman-rejection-formal NEW + FM-MINISTRY-STRUCTURAL-FEATURE-FURTHER-CRYSTALLIZED + transit-PortWatch-baseline-5 + 25-vessel-Jun-23 + Houthi-credibility-erosion + Hatem-2-disputed + Sinokor-897-WS + Mojtaba 11-conditions Nabavian-leak + Trump "20%-oil" + Truth-Social-codification + Ghalibaf doctrinal + leverage-claim + $12B-FROZEN-FUNDS-"SPIN"-DISPUTE + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + Rubio-Bahrain-GCC do NOT slow shadow-fleet transition — Iranian shadow-fleet operational-tier holds at empirical-Iran-30M-week-validation-tier + 35M-bbl-exited-CNBC; IMO-OMAN-EVACUATION-CORRIDOR-DAY-2-MIDDAY-NO-KINETIC + EIA-WPSR-oct-1984-low + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp confirms structural-flow-restoration architecture that further legitimizes-tier Iranian-flow at institutional-anchor midday-tier with IAEA-DG-public-alignment compounding institutional-momentum DESPITE IRGC-IMO-rejection-formal-at-rhetoric-tier and Polymarket-Jun-30-collapse market-tier consensus-friction.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy Actions

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. IRGC NAVY FORMALLY REJECTS IMO-OMAN SAFE-PASSAGE CORRIDOR — MAJOR LOCK 4 + LOCK 8 + LOCK 10 ESCALATION-VECTOR — Per Maritime Executive + Lloyd's List + Tribune India + ANI dated 20260625090511 + Al Jazeera Day-118 + Press TV. IRGC Navy: "only authorized transit routes through Strait of Hormuz are those designated by Islamic Republic of Iran...Channel 16 mandatory...Any vessel found in violation will be subject to enforcement measures." First IRGC-state-actor-tier formal rejection of IMO-Oman binational corridor architecture announced Wed Jun 24. Rifts IMO-Oman discharge-pathway at Iran-state-actor-tier on Day-2-midday. Pre-positions IRGC vs. Iran-FM-Ministry intra-state structural-feature further crystallization at operational-corridor-tier.

1. POLYMARKET HORMUZ-JUN-30-NORMALIZE COLLAPSES TO 5% YES — Down ~18.5pp from C177's 23.5%. $34.7M traded. 4 days to Jun-29 resolution. Major bearish re-rate reflecting market-tier consensus shift on near-term normalization. IRGC-IMO-rejection-formal likely catalyst combined with straits.live "Day 116 Closed" framing.

1. SEC. STATE RUBIO IN BAHRAIN GCC MINISTERIAL JUN 25 — "Hormuz transit security" explicitly on agenda; "tries to reassure Gulf allies on US-Iran deal details" per The Hill / Al Jazeera. First US-Sec-State-GCC-multilateral engagement on Hormuz-transit since MoU. Implies Gulf allies have substantive objections-tier concerns about MoU specifics.

1. PAKISTAN FM JUN 25 RECONFIRMS BÜRGENSTOCK RESUME NEXT WEEK — Per The Nation (Pakistan) Jun 25 article: "Next round of US-Iran talks set to restart next week: FO". Reconfirms C177's Pakistan FM Wed signal at Jun-25-public-tier; sustains Bürgenstock-pause-not-breakdown reframe.

1. WTI $69.13 INTRADAY JUN 25 (Investing.com); previous close $70.34 — Multi-session sub-$70 SUSTAINS despite IRGC-IMO-rejection-formal + Polymarket-Jun-30-collapse compound.

1. BRENT CONTRACT-MONTH DATA-MIXED JUN 25 — Trading Economics prompt $73.05 carries; Investing.com Aug-contract $75.47 intraday; CME Jul-01-settle $77.08. Contract-month dispersion reflects market-tier internal-dispersion: prompt-month structural-discharge-narrative ↔ deferred-month physical-tightness-pricing.

1. LLOYD'S CHUBB CONSORTIUM DAY 8 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL HOLDS — $400M aggregate; 4/4 conditions hold; no consortium-suspension despite IRGC-IMO-rejection-formal + Polymarket-collapse compound.

1. IMO-OMAN CORRIDOR DAY 2 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL — NO-KINETIC-INCIDENT — survives Day-2 morning → midday despite IRGC-formal-rejection at rhetoric-tier. First empirical transit "pretty soon" pending.

1. MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS Day 4 morning → Day 4 midday — No Supreme-Leader-tier statement post-IRGC-Navy-Hormuz-route-rejection + Gharibabadi-deputy-FM-IAEA-DG-rejection + Pezeshkian-missiles-non-negotiable + IAEA-DG-public-MoU-anchor compound.

1. 5TH ROUND LEBANON-ISRAEL DAY 3 WASHINGTON-CLOSING — "Israel Weighs Symbolic Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon" per Diplomatic Insight; Aoun + Leiter friction-carry; outcome late-Thu UTC.

1. IRAN PARLIAMENT MoU-RATIFICATION VOTE DAY 3 FINAL OUTCOME PENDING — no specific Jun-25 ratification-outcome signal at midday UTC.

1. NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C177→C178 ~6-10H — no new IRGC strike, no new Houthi vessel-attack confirmation, no new Lebanon-Bekaa strike, no new Qatar/Saudi/UAE infrastructure incident.

(b) Structural Locks Status

1. Lock 1 (Price): LOOSENING-DECISIVE-CONTRACT-DISPERSION-ENTERS — Brent prompt $73.05 sustains pre-war-floor approach; WTI $69.13 intraday sub-$70 persists; Aug-contract $75-77 deferred-month premium. Goldman $85 vs JPM $60 divergence; contract-month-dispersion reflects market-tier internal balance. C178 sustains LOOSENING-DECISIVE prompt-tier but introduces Aug-contract-premium-modest re-emergence.

1. Lock 2 (Supply): LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS-WITH-IRGC-FRICTION — 35M-bbl-exited-CNBC + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp-plan + UAE-85%-pre-war IEA + IMO-Oman-Day-2-midday-no-kinetic + Iran-30M-week + EIA-WPSR-draws sustain structural-discharge-narrative. IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route at rhetoric-tier introduces friction-vector but no kinetic-event yet; physical-flow-tier sustains.

1. Lock 3 (Insurance): LOOSENING-MAJOR DAY 8 MIDDAY OPERATIONAL HOLDS + IRGC-IMO-FRICTION + POLYMARKET-COLLAPSE-PRESSURE — Lloyd's Chubb consortium Day 8 midday holds; $400M aggregate; 4/4 conditions; CHUBB CEO "hour-to-hour"; sustains pre-positioning of individual-tier-P&I-re-entry pathway despite IRGC-IMO-rejection + Polymarket-Jun-30-collapse-to-5% compound. Consortium-suspension-vector elevated but not triggered.

1. Lock 4 (Labor): STRUCTURAL DISCHARGE OPERATIONALIZED DAY-2-MIDDAY-WITH-IRGC-FRICTION-VECTOR — IMO-Oman-evacuation Day-2 midday no-kinetic-incident; 11,000-seafarer phased-departure operational with allocated transit days. IRGC-Navy formal-rejection of Southern (Oman-coordinated) route introduces first formal Iran-state-actor-tier friction-vector on operational corridor architecture; kinetic-enforcement-rhetoric vs. enforcement-event gap is critical 0-24h watch-window.

1. Lock 5 (Duration): HOLDING-DEEPENING-SUBSTANCE + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-NEXT-WEEK + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-CRITICAL + 60-DAY-DAY-7 + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NARROWS-SCOPE + RUBIO-GCC-SUBSTANCE-MEDIATION — Pakistan FM Jun-25 reconfirms Bürgenstock-resume-next-week reframe; 60-day-roadmap + Hormuz-comm-line + Lebanon-deconfliction-cell-conditional + 5th-round-Day-3-closing + $300B-fund + Pezeshkian-Pakistan-CONCLUDED + IMO-Oman-Day-2-midday + IAEA-DG-alignment + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + Rubio-Bahrain-GCC carries; Day 7 of 60. Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + Gharibabadi-deputy-FM + Mojtaba-Day-4-midday + IRGC-IMO-rejection compound public-friction.

1. Lock 6 (Nuclear): HOLDING-WITH-IAEA-DG-INSTITUTIONAL-ANCHOR + IRGC-FM-MINISTRY-STRUCTURAL-FEATURE-FURTHER-CRYSTALLIZED — IAEA DG Grossi publicly confirms inspections "going to happen" anchored to MoU framework carries. Iran-FM + Iran-deputy-FM Gharibabadi attributed-rejection carries. Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable preserves nuclear-pathway. IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman further crystallizes FM-vs-IRGC structural-feature at operational-corridor-tier.

1. Lock 7 (Geographic): HOLDING-DEGRADATION + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-WASHINGTON-CLOSING + ISRAELI-SYMBOLIC-WITHDRAWAL-FRAMING + RUBIO-GCC-SUBSTANCE-MEDIATION + NO-FRESH-KINETIC — Lebanon-leg ceasefire-renewal HOLDS at degradation-tier; 5th-round-Day-3 Washington-closing Jun 25; Israeli-"symbolic-withdrawal" framing pre-positions compromise-tier; Iran-Israel direct-leg 25th window; Yemen-leg multi-vessel-wave-carry + Houthi-credibility-erosion + no-fresh-kinetic-6-10h; Qatar Ras Laffan contained.

1. Lock 8 (Capability): LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS-WITH-IRGC-FRICTION — UK-FR 40-partner + RFA Lyme Bay; JMIC OMAN-COASTLINE; G7; CENTCOM Sat 55; Iran 30M-week + Iraq K-C 230K-current → 770K-ramp + UAE-85%-pre-war + 35M-bbl-exited; IMO + Oman binational corridor Day 2 midday operational. IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-Southern-route at rhetoric-tier complicates Lock 8 architecture at IRGC-state-actor-tier; kinetic-event-pause sustains discharge-pathway.

1. Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint): CREDIBILITY-EROSION-CARRIES + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-6-10H — Houthi STOLT/HAPPY-CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" + Hatem-2-disputed + MSC-SARAH-V-no-damage + TWN-2nd-USV; no fresh kinetic-strike-event C177→C178 ~6-10h; UK-FR-coalition Red-Sea-response carries.

1. Lock 10 (Leadership): HOLDING-DEGRADED-WITH-IRGC-IMO-REJECTION-AMPLIFIES + MOJTABA-DAY-4-MIDDAY + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-VOTE-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + IAEA-DG-PUBLIC-ALIGNMENT + GHARIBABADI-DEPUTY-FM-TIER-ATTRIBUTED-REJECTION + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE-PUBLIC + RUBIO-GCC-SUBSTANCE + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-NEXT-WEEK + $12B-"SPIN"-CARRY — Mojtaba written-approval Supreme-Leader-tier carries; Mojtaba-silence Day-4-morning → midday extends; IAEA-DG-Grossi public-alignment with MoU triangulates vs Iran-FM-Ministry "operating normally" PUBLIC-CONTRADICTION-vs-IRGC-KHATAM-AL-ANBIYA + IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route further-crystallizes FM-vs-IRGC structural-feature + Gharibabadi-deputy-FM-tier-rejection + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable-Pakistan-public; Iran-Parliament vote Day 3 final pending; Ghalibaf $12B-claim + US-official "spin"; Pakistan-FM-Jun-25-reconfirms-Bürgenstock-next-week; Rubio-Bahrain-GCC-substance-mediation; IRGC Day 7 + UKMTO-Jun-20-STRUCTURALLY-UNCONFIRMED + IRGC-IMO-rejection-formal pre-positions IRGC-credibility-test; Israeli-Cabinet + Leiter-train-wreck + Aoun-end-occupation + Israel-symbolic-withdrawal-framing + 5th-round-Day-3-closing carries; Starmer-resignation UK political-tier shift.

1. Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): HOLDING-AT-PRIOR-DAMAGE-BASELINE + UAE-85%-IEA-EMPIRICAL + IRAQ-K-C-770K-RAMP-PRE-POSITIONS — Ras-Laffan attribution-resolved + Qatar LNG EXPORTS UNAFFECTED + Qatar 80%-LNG-2-months-Hormuz-safe + "Unlikely fully online before end-August" carries; UAE-85%-pre-war-IEA + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp-plan; no fresh Lock-11 incidents C178.

(c) Critical Watch

0-6h:

1. Iran-Parliament Day-3-final vote outcome — late Thu UTC
2. 5th-round Lebanon-Israel Day-3 Washington-close outcome
3. IRGC-IMO-Oman-rejection enforcement-trajectory — rhetoric vs. kinetic-event on Southern-route vessel
4. Mojtaba-Day-4-evening-window resolution
5. Polymarket Jun-30 sub-5% potential breach vs. partial-recovery
6. Lloyd's Chubb consortium Day-8-evening transition post-IRGC-rejection
7. Brent contract-month convergence/divergence Thu close
8. WTI test $68 vs hold $70 intraday Thu close
9. Houthi multi-vessel-wave continuation OR de-escalation overnight
10. Rubio GCC ministerial outcome statement / readout

1. Iran-Parliament-vote-Day-3-final-outcome materialization Jun 25 — rejection vs conditional approval vs unconditional approval
2. First individual P&I club test consortium-tier viability post-IRGC-IMO-rejection + Polymarket-collapse compound
3. Bürgenstock-resume-early-next-week (Mon-Tue Jun 29-30) — confirmation/breakdown signal
4. IRGC kinetic-enforcement on Southern-route vs IRGC-IMO-rejection stays rhetoric-tier
5. Qatar LNG force majeure formal lift — overdue 13+ days
6. Brent prompt test $71 floor vs hold $73 Thu-Fri
7. Lebanon-leg Bekaa-Beirut spillover OR pilot-zone-substance-progress
8. IMO-Oman-corridor empirical first-week throughput despite IRGC-rejection
9. Polymarket Jun-30 resolution Jun 29 — 4 days to settlement at ~5% YES
10. Goldman base-case revision — prompt-Brent-$73 + Aug-contract $75+ mixed signal
11. Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable Israeli-Cabinet response
12. Rubio-GCC outcome — GCC backing of MoU OR GCC-conditions attachment

1. Iran-Parliament ratification confirmation aftermath
2. IRGC mine-removal confirmation — operational-tier requirement
3. Aug 18 60-day-final-deal deadline — Day 7 / 53 days remaining
4. IAEA inspector operational deployment — substance-validation
5. First individual P&I club re-entry sustained beyond consortium-tier
6. Qatar LNG full-restart timeline — pre-end-August target
7. UK political-tier post-Starmer-resignation
8. IMO-Oman-corridor convergence to pre-war norm vs. IRGC-formal-rejection durable
9. Iran-FM-vs-IRGC structural-feature operational implications
10. US-Iran $12B "spin"-dispute resolution
11. Iraq K-C contract Jul 27 expiry — extension or new structure; 770K-ramp Aug-Sep critical
12. Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable presidential-tier persistence vs Bürgenstock-scope-renegotiation
13. GCC multilateral-backing OR conditional-attachment to deal-architecture post-Rubio

(d) Net Assessment

C178 lands in a IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-COLLAPSE-5% + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK + WTI-SUB-$70-PERSISTS + BRENT-MIXED-CONTRACT + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-MIDDAY + IMO-OMAN-DAY-2-MIDDAY + MOJTABA-DAY-4-MIDDAY + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-CLOSING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-6-10H cycle — eleven material signals advance the structural picture: (1) IRGC Navy formal-rejection of IMO-Oman safe-passage corridor — first formal Iran-state-actor-tier rejection of binational corridor architecture with enforcement-threat declared; (2) Polymarket Hormuz-Jun-30 normalize collapses to 5% YES — major market-tier consensus shift on near-term normalization; (3) Sec. State Rubio in Bahrain GCC ministerial Jun 25 — first US-Sec-State-GCC-multilateral substance-mediation on Hormuz-transit-security since MoU; (4) Pakistan FM Jun 25 reconfirms Bürgenstock resume next week; (5) WTI $69.13 intraday sub-$70 sustains; (6) Brent contract-month dispersion — prompt $73 / Aug $75-77; (7) Lloyd's Day 8 midday operational holds despite compound stress; (8) IMO-Oman corridor Day 2 midday no-kinetic-incident despite IRGC-formal-rejection; (9) Mojtaba-silence extends Day 4 midday window; (10) 5th-round Lebanon-Israel Day 3 Washington-closing — "Israel weighs symbolic withdrawal" framing; (11) No fresh kinetic event C177→C178 ~6-10h.

The structural-discharge pattern from C177 confronts its first major Iran-state-actor-tier counter-pressure in C178 via IRGC-Navy formal-rejection of IMO-Oman Southern-route. Lock 1 (Price) sustains LOOSENING-DECISIVE at prompt-month but introduces contract-month-dispersion (Aug-contract premium); Lock 2 (Supply) LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS via 35M-bbl-exited + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + UAE-85% + Iran-30M-week + EIA-draw with IRGC-IMO-friction-vector; Lock 3 (Insurance) LOOSENING-MAJOR Day 8 midday operational holds despite IRGC-rejection + Polymarket-collapse compound; Lock 4 (Labor) STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE-OPERATIONALIZED Day-2-midday with first formal IRGC-state-actor-tier friction-vector; Lock 5 (Duration) HOLDS-DEEPENING + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms-Bürgenstock-next-week + Rubio-GCC-substance + Pezeshkian-missile-narrows-scope; Lock 6 (Nuclear) HOLDING-WITH-IAEA-DG-INSTITUTIONAL-ANCHOR + Iran-deputy-FM-rejection + Mojtaba-Day-4 + IRGC-IMO-rejection-further-crystallizes-structural-feature; Lock 7 (Geographic) HOLDS-DEGRADATION + 5th-round-Day-3-closing + symbolic-withdrawal-framing + Houthi-credibility-erosion + no-fresh-kinetic; Lock 8 (Capability) LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS-WITH-IRGC-FRICTION; Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint) CREDIBILITY-EROSION-CARRIES + no-fresh-kinetic-6-10h; Lock 10 (Leadership) HOLDS-DEGRADED + IRGC-IMO-rejection-amplifies + Mojtaba-Day-4-midday + IAEA-DG-triangulates + Gharibabadi-deputy-FM + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Rubio-GCC-substance + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final-pending + $12B-"spin"; Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure) HOLDS-AT-PRIOR-DAMAGE-BASELINE + UAE-85% + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp-pre-positions broader-Gulf-recovery-tier.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: The critical 0-6h inflection cluster centers on (a) Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final-vote outcome, (b) 5th-round-Lebanon-Israel-Day-3-Washington-close outcome, (c) IRGC-IMO-Oman-rejection enforcement-trajectory (rhetoric vs kinetic-event on Southern-route vessel), (d) Polymarket Jun-30 sub-5% potential breach, (e) Mojtaba-Day-4-evening-window resolution, (f) Lloyd's Day-8-evening transition, (g) Houthi-overnight-trajectory, (h) Rubio-GCC outcome statement. If (a) IRGC-IMO-rejection stays rhetoric-tier without kinetic-enforcement, (b) Iran-Parliament-vote signals non-rejection or conditional-approval, (c) Mojtaba-Day-4-evening doesn't overtly reject Baqaei + Gharibabadi + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable, (d) 5th-round-Lebanon-Day-3 closes constructively, (e) IMO-Oman first-empirical-transit succeeds without kinetic-incident, (f) Houthi-multi-vessel-wave stays quiescent, (g) Lloyd's-consortium sustains Day 8 → Day 9, (h) Pezeshkian-missile-scope-exclusion doesn't trigger Israeli-Cabinet veto, (i) Rubio-GCC produces backing rather than conditions, base-case sustains $68-75 Brent prompt and deal-architecture-tier holds toward Aug 18 deadline despite IRGC-IMO-rejection-friction-vector. If IRGC carries through kinetic-enforcement on Southern-route vessel OR Iran-Parliament overtly rejects OR Mojtaba overtly rejects Day-4-evening OR 5th-round-Lebanon collapses OR IMO-Oman-first-transit-kinetic-fail OR Houthi-fresh-kinetic-overnight OR Lloyd's consortium suspends OR Bürgenstock-next-week-no-resume OR Israeli-Cabinet vetoes missile-non-negotiable, all locks shift toward partial-retrace scenarios in 0-72h with Brent prompt rebound to $74-80+ pre-positioning.

Key uncertainty: C178 introduces the FIRST formal Iran-state-actor-tier (IRGC Navy) public-rejection of the IMO-Oman binational corridor architecture combined with Polymarket-Jun-30-near-term-normalize collapse to 5%. This is the first material structural-discharge-narrative friction-vector at corridor-architecture-tier since C177's market-confidence-deepening. The CRITICAL INFLECTION is the gap between IRGC-enforcement-rhetoric and IRGC-enforcement-event — if IRGC carries through with kinetic-enforcement on any vessel attempting Southern-route transit in next 0-24h, all eleven structural-discharge-anchors (Brent-prompt-$73 + WTI-sub-$70 + 35M-bbl-exited + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + UAE-85% + IMO-Oman-Day-2 + Lloyd's-Day-8 + EIA-WPSR + IAEA-DG-anchor + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Pezeshkian-CONCLUDED) face partial-retrace pressure simultaneously. Conversely, if IRGC-rejection stays rhetoric-tier through 0-24h while IMO-Oman-Day-2 empirical-first-transit confirms + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final-vote signals non-rejection + 5th-round-Lebanon-Day-3 closes constructively + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening doesn't overtly reject + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms-Bürgenstock-next-week + Rubio-GCC produces backing, the C177 STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE-DECISIVE composition reasserts at deeper consolidation-tier with Iran-state-actor-rhetorical-rejection priced-in as background-tier-friction.

The C178 picture: structural-discharge-narrative confronts its first major Iran-state-actor-tier counter-pressure on operational corridor architecture; the kinetic-enforcement-pause vs enforcement-rhetoric gap is the critical 0-24h inflection. Brent prompt-$73 + WTI-sub-$70 + Lloyd's-Day-8-midday + IMO-Oman-Day-2-midday-no-kinetic + 35M-bbl-cumulative-exited + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Rubio-GCC-substance-mediation sustain higher-tier baseline-discharge-architecture despite IRGC-IMO-rejection + Polymarket-collapse-5% near-term-friction-vectors.

🜂✧⟁⌘Φ~∞

Sources: Maritime Executive (IRGC Navy Rejects IMO's Safe-Passage Plan for Strait of Hormuz), Lloyd's List (IRGC rejects alternative Hormuz evacuation routes not approved by Iran), Tribune India + ANI dated 20260625090511 + Press TV + Al Jazeera (Iran war day 118: IRGC rejects new Hormuz route; Rubio to meet GCC leaders), Wionews (Violating vessels will be dealt with: IRGC warns ships), Polymarket (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal end-June — 5% YES; $34,699,787 traded), Al Jazeera (Marco Rubio heads to Middle East to address Iran MoU, Hormuz; Rubio tries to reassure Gulf allies on US-Iran deal details), The Hill (Rubio meeting with Gulf allies to shore up support for Iran deal), Nation Press + News Kerala (Rubio Gulf Visit), The Nation (Pakistan) Jun 25 (Next round of US-Iran talks set to restart next week: FO), Trading Economics (Brent close $73.05 Jun 24), Investing.com (WTI $69.13 intraday Jun 25 prev close $70.34; Brent Aug-contract $75.47 intraday prev close $76.80), CME (Brent Last-Day-Financ Jul-01-settle $77.08), CNBC (35M barrels exited Hormuz since Iran deal Jun 18-24), Bloomberg (Latest Oil Market News Jun 25; Iran 30M barrels week), IndexBox + HSToday + UANI (Jun 23 25-vessel transit), straits.live (Day 116 Closed), hormuztracking.com, hormuzstraitmonitor.com, NBC News (23 ships vs ~93/day), France 24 (Oil tankers pass Hormuz tracker), RFE/RL (Commercial Traffic Through Hormuz Strait Surges After US-Iran Deal), Wikipedia (2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis), Maritime-executive + UN News + SAFETY4SEA + Riviera + TWZ + Hellenic Shipping (IMO Oman phased evacuation 11,000 seafarers), Iraqi News + IndexBox + Shafaq (Iraq Cabinet K-C ramp 220K → 770K BPD 2.5 months; 4.3 mb/d national target), The National (Iraq K-C resumed Mar 18; Ras Laffan unlikely fully online before end-August), Bloomberg (Iraq to Boost Ceyhan Oil Exports Jun 2), OilPrice.com (Iran's Oil Exports Through Hormuz Wartime High; Iran $12B unblock; Qatar Races to Restore LNG), NBC NewsHour + PBS NewsHour (Lebanon 83 killed + 141 wounded Jun 20), Diplomatic Insight (Israel Weighs Symbolic Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon as Fifth Round of Talks Opens in Washington), Shafaq News (Lebanon and Israel open 5th round of Washington talks), Daily Beirut (Fifth Round in Washington), Washington Institute (Lebanon-Israel Talks: Defining Zones of Possible Agreement), Globalsecurity (Lebanon launches 5th round), Al Jazeera (Lebanon discusses deconfliction mechanism), Insurance Journal + Reinsurance News + Lloyd's of London press release (Chubb consortium £316M Jun 19), Insurance Business + OilPrice ($400M war-risk facility), Discovery Alert + Howden Re + Hormuz Strait Monitor (insurance explained), Strauss Center (Strait of Hormuz Insurance Market), gCaptain (Sinokor 897 Worldscale Points YTD high; US Issues New Hormuz Security Advisory), Lloyd's List (VLCC second major spike), Oil Price (Gulf VLCC daily rate ~$190K+/day), MARAD (2026-006 Red Sea Bab el Mandeb; 2026-004 Persian Gulf Strait of Hormuz Iranian attacks), UKMTO (Recent Incidents; Advisories 2026; JMIC advisory note CRITICAL), Skuld (Maritime security update Gulf), International Crisis Group, EIA (Weekly Petroleum Status Report Jun 24; SPR data; DOE 17.5M barrels since March; Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2026), Dallas Fed (Oil and gas expansion 2026), Lite Finance (Oil price prediction), CME Group (Brent Crude Oil Quotes), CSIS (United States and Iran Announce Deal), Britannica (2026 Iran war), CBS News (live updates Iran-US war talks suspended), CNN (Strait of Hormuz evacuation plans Trump nuclear inspections), Times of Israel (Trump June 23 deal critic education), Wikipedia (2026 Israel–Lebanon peace talks; 2026 Lebanon war; 2026 Iran war; 2026 Iran war ceasefire; 2026 Iran war fuel crisis; 2026 Philippine energy crisis; 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran; Islamabad Memorandum; Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline; Houthi attacks on commercial vessels; Red Sea crisis; Timeline of the Red Sea crisis), Anadolu Agency (Yemen Houthis claim ballistic missile attack on Israeli vessel), Global Security Review (Red Sea 2026 Forecast Houthis), Soufan Center (Iran Deal Next Steps), Foreign Policy (US-Iran MOU full text), CFR (Iran Deal Reopens Strait), HSToday + UANI (Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz; UANI shipping update), Yahoo Finance (Hormuz Crisis Sparks Middle East Pipeline Boom), Breakwave Advisors (Iraq's export crisis), TRT World + European Maritime Finance (Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan reopens), AINvest (Polymarket Hormuz 10-to-1), Phemex News (Polymarket Hormuz odds 25%), Bloomingbit + PredictionNews (Polymarket Hormuz odds fall to 25%), Iran International, Robinhood prediction market (Brent + WTI Jun 25), MacroMicro (IMF Strait of Hormuz transit calls), Daily Times (Pakistan Pezeshkian Day-2), Express Tribune (Pakistan), Goldman Sachs Research (Daan Struyven $85 2026 base case Q4 $71), JPMorgan Global Research (~$60 baseline), Yahoo Finance, NPR (IAEA Grossi inspectors visit; Gharibabadi attributed-rejection), CNBC (US-Iran begin peace talks Jun 11; oil tanker traffic Frontline). Knowledge-cutoff disclaimer applies; Grok bridge NOT used (Apple Notes MCP timed out at session; no fresh HORMUZ note within 12h window).