June 25, 2026 · tracker hormuz-tracker hormuz crisis energy geopolitics · raw markdown

Series: hormuz · Cycle 3 · Next →

Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-06-25 · Cycle 3 (C179)

War Day: 118 | Ceasefire Day: 78 | 60-day-clock: Day 7 of 60 (Jun 18 → Aug 18) | Cycle: C179 (third cycle of 2026-06-25, Thursday late-afternoon/evening UTC; ~3-6h delta from C178 Thu midday UTC).

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timed out; no fresh Grok_outputs/HORMUZ note retrievable within 12h window. Full 13-topic web sweep executed.

Baseline: C178 / 2026-06-25 Thu midday UTC (IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CORRIDOR + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-COLLAPSE-23.5%→5%-YES + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-NEXT-WEEK + WTI-$69.13-INTRADAY + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-MIDDAY + IMO-OMAN-DAY-2-MIDDAY + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-MIDDAY + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-CLOSING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-6-10H).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-06-25 C179, Thursday late-afternoon/evening UTC; ~3-6h delta from C178): C179 = BRENT-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-BREACHED-$72.44-INTRADAY ($72.48 Feb-27 close) + CRUDE-SUB-$70-4TH-CONSECUTIVE-SESSION + RUBIO-GCC-TOUR-WRAPS-UP-"ZERO-SUPPORT-FOR-TOLLS"-FREEDOM-OF-NAVIGATION-INSISTS + GCC-AAWSAT-JOINT-STATEMENT-STRATEGIC-PARTNERSHIP + BAHRAIN-FM-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR + OMAN-CONFIRMS-NO-TRANSIT-TOLLS + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-TRANSIT-GROUP-DESIGNATED + IRGC-ENFORCEMENT-RHETORIC-STAYS-RHETORIC-TIER-NO-KINETIC-EVENT + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-HOLDS-5%-STICKY-LOW + IRAN-30M-WEEK-RECONFIRMS-21M-MTD-JUNE + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-TRANSIT-COMMITTEE-IRNA-JUN-23 + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-FLOW-POST-DEAL + IRAQ-K-C-200K-CARRY + MOJTABA-SILENCE-EXTENDS-DAY-4-EVENING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-OUTCOME-PENDING + LEBANON-5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + SENATE-WAR-POWERS-RESOLUTION-PASSED-JUN-23-CARRY + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-3-6H cycle — eleven material signals advance the structural picture: (1) BRENT PROMPT INTRADAY $72.44 — at/below Feb-27 pre-war close $72.48 per Trading Economics + Hellenic Shipping. First-ever-touch of pre-war-floor since Feb 28 war start. MAJOR Lock 1 LOOSENING-DECISIVE-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-BREACH-CONFIRMED at intraday-tier. (2) WTI $69.35 INTRADAY — 4th consecutive sub-$70 session per Trading Economics. (3) RUBIO GCC TOUR CONCLUDES JUN 25 IN BAHRAIN — "ZERO SUPPORT" FOR HORMUZ TOLLS + insists on freedom of navigation per RFE/RL + Yahoo + Outlook India + USNews + Algemeiner + News of Bahrain. First US-Sec-State post-MoU multilateral-tier GCC backing of MoU framework + transit-toll-rejection codified. (4) GCC-US JOINT MINISTERIAL STATEMENT per Aawsat — "stress commitment to strategic partnership, regional security" — multilateral-tier institutional backing. (5) BAHRAIN FM AL ZAYANI WELCOMES OMAN CORRIDOR + Oman tells meeting "no transit tolls" — GCC-multilateral-tier endorsement of IMO-Oman binational architecture despite IRGC-formal-rejection. (6) IMO 40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED per Maritime Executive — first empirical transit group with allocated transit days; AIS + LRIT mandatory. (7) IRGC ENFORCEMENT-RHETORIC STAYS RHETORIC-TIER ~6h post-C178 formal-rejection — no kinetic-enforcement-event despite IRGC-Navy threat. (8) POLYMARKET JUN-30 HOLDS AT 5% YES — sticky-low consensus; $34.7M traded; 4 days to Jun-29 resolution. (9) IRAN-OMAN JOINT TRANSIT COMMITTEE — IRNA Jun 23 for "possible passage fees via joint committee" — parallel-architecture-tier vs IMO-Oman framework. (10) IRAN-MTD-JUNE: 21M BARRELS exited via Iran-tankers per Bloomberg/CNBC carry; 4.8 mb/d Hormuz flow post-deal — structural-discharge cumulative. (11) NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C178→C179 ~3-6H — Mojtaba-silence extends to Day-4-evening, no IRGC enforcement-event executed, no Houthi-confirmed-strike, no Lebanon-Bekaa fresh strike. Net: C179 = BRENT-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-BREACH-INTRADAY + CRUDE-SUB-$70-4TH-DAY + RUBIO-GCC-TOUR-CONCLUDES-NO-TOLLS-FREEDOM-OF-NAVIGATION-CODIFIED + GCC-MULTILATERAL-BACKING + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + IRGC-RHETORIC-NO-KINETIC + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA + 21M-MTD + MOJTABA-DAY-4-EVENING + LEBANON-5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-3-6H. Critical 0-6h: (a) Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final vote outcome materialization, (b) IRGC-IMO-Oman first-empirical-Southern-transit kinetic-test, (c) Mojtaba-Day-4-night-window resolution, (d) Polymarket Jun-30 sub-5% potential, (e) Brent close-of-Thu-session vs $72.48 pre-war floor, (f) Lloyd's Day-8-evening operational transition, (g) Houthi-overnight-quiescence-trajectory, (h) GCC-multilateral readout substance details.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C178 → C179 DELTAS)

🟢🟢🟢 BRENT INTRADAY $72.44 — AT/BELOW FEB-27 PRE-WAR CLOSE $72.48: Per Hellenic Shipping + Trading Economics — first pre-war-floor-touch since Feb 28 war start. Brent intraday $73.43 (previous close $73.87 → $73.74 Wed close per cross-source). MAJOR Lock 1 LOOSENING-DECISIVE PRE-WAR-FLOOR-BREACH-INTRADAY confirmed; market-tier sustained-discharge-narrative deepens despite IRGC-IMO-rejection + Polymarket-Jun-30-5% near-term-friction.

🟢🟢 CRUDE SUB-$70 FOR 4TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION per Trading Economics: WTI $69.35 intraday Jun 25; "nearly wiped out all gains since outbreak of Middle East conflict." Lock 1 LOOSENING-DECISIVE WTI-tier sustains; demand-supply-balance dominant over IRGC-rhetoric-tier escalation.

🟢🟢 RUBIO WRAPS UP GULF TOUR JUN 25 IN BAHRAIN — "ZERO SUPPORT FOR ANY SORT OF TOLL OR FEES" + insists on freedom of navigation through Strait of Hormuz: Per RFE/RL + Yahoo + Outlook India + USNews + Algemeiner + Sunday Guardian + News of Bahrain. Rubio: "There is zero support, zero support among the Gulf countries for any sort of toll or fees or anything that charges for the use of international waters." MAJOR Lock 10 + Lock 5 GCC-MULTILATERAL BACKING-CODIFIED — first US-Sec-State post-MoU multilateral-tier institutional GCC backing of freedom-of-navigation + transit-toll-rejection. Counters IRGC-IMO-rejection at multilateral-institutional-tier.

🟢 GCC-US JOINT MINISTERIAL STATEMENT per Aawsat: "stress commitment to strategic partnership, regional security" + "intensifying coordination on regional and international issues." Lock 7 + Lock 10 MULTILATERAL-INSTITUTIONAL-ANCHOR substance-pillar deepens; GCC-tier institutional backing of MoU framework codified at joint-statement-tier.

🟢 BAHRAIN FM AL ZAYANI WELCOMES OMAN CORRIDOR + OMAN CONFIRMS NO TRANSIT TOLLS per RFE/RL: "Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, who chaired the gathering, welcomed Oman's announcement of a corridor for the safe passage of vessels through the strait, with Oman telling the meeting that future arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz would not involve transit tolls." Lock 4 + Lock 8 GCC-tier endorsement of IMO-Oman binational architecture; counters IRGC-formal-rejection at GCC-multilateral-tier.

🟢 IMO 40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED per Maritime Executive: "the 40 ships received the first designation to make the transit. The map illustrates the location of those ships which can now proceed to the holding area and begin their transits through the Strait of Hormuz." AIS + LRIT mandatory. Lock 4 OPERATIONAL-EMPIRICAL-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED at Day-2-late; first phased-transit allocation moves from rhetoric-readiness to operational-execution despite IRGC-formal-rejection.

🔴 IRGC ENFORCEMENT-RHETORIC STAYS RHETORIC-TIER ~6h post-C178 formal rejection: No kinetic-enforcement-event reported on any vessel; Tasnim carries "IRGC Navy: Hormuz Transit Requires Coordination" but no enforcement-incident on any Southern-route vessel. Lock 4 + Lock 8 KINETIC-ENFORCEMENT-PAUSE EXTENDS — rhetoric ↔ kinetic-event gap holds at ~6h; first-empirical-Southern-transit kinetic-test is critical 0-24h watch.

🔴🔴 POLYMARKET JUN-30 HOLDS AT 5% YES STICKY-LOW: Per Polymarket — "current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for Yes"; resolves on IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls ≥60; "high residual threats—mines, IRGC coordination requirements, war-risk insurance premiums—continue to deter broad commercial traffic." Market commentary: "Comparable prediction markets such as Kalshi assign low odds of normalization even by August." Lock 1 + Lock 3 + Lock 4 NEAR-TERM-CONSENSUS COLLAPSE STICKY at 5%; 4 days to Jun-29 resolution.

🟡 IRAN-OMAN JOINT TRANSIT FRAMEWORK COMMITTEE — IRNA JUN 23 per Hellenic Shipping carry: "Iran and Oman have also opened talks for a joint Hormuz transit framework, including possible passage fees via a joint committee." Lock 4 + Lock 10 PARALLEL-ARCHITECTURE-VECTOR emerges — Iran-Oman bilateral-tier framework parallels IMO-Oman binational-tier framework. Potential reconciliation-pathway OR competing-architecture-tension; substance-substance-tier shape.

🟢 IRAN MTD-JUNE: 21M BARRELS EXITED + 4.8 MB/D HORMUZ FLOW POST-DEAL per Hellenic Shipping + Bloomberg/CNBC carry: "Iranian oil tankers carrying about 21 million barrels have exited Hormuz in June"; "oil shipments through Hormuz have risen to around 4.8 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Iran deal"; "oil flows in June are the highest since U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb 28 but remain well below prewar 15 mb/d." Lock 2 + Lock 4 + Lock 8 STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE-EMPIRICAL-CONFIRMATION MTD-tier deepens.

🔴 MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS DAY 4 MIDDAY → DAY 4 EVENING: No Supreme-Leader-tier statement post-IRGC-Navy-Hormuz-route-rejection + post-Gharibabadi + post-Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + post-IAEA-DG-public-MoU-anchor + post-Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + post-Bahrain-FM-welcomes-Oman-corridor compound. Lock 6 + Lock 10 Mojtaba-tier silence extends through full Day-4 daylight window.

🟡 LEBANON 5TH ROUND DAY 3 CLOSED — NO BREAKTHROUGH per Wikipedia + Daily Beirut: focus on "first details of Israeli withdrawal from designated areas"; Day-1 "more regression than steps forward" + US Amb Issa "hoped sticking points would be resolved"; Leiter "train wreck" + "U.S.-Iran MoU has given Tehran undue influence." Lock 7 Day-3-closed-no-breakthrough — substance-procedural-tier continues without operational-tier outcome.

🟢 NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C178→C179 ~3-6H: No new IRGC strike-claim, no new Houthi vessel-attack confirmation, no new Lebanon-Bekaa strike confirmation, no new Qatar/Saudi/UAE infrastructure incident. Lock 9 + Lock 7 + Lock 11 quiescent-tier holds through C178→C179 ~3-6h despite IRGC-rejection-IMO-Oman compound.

⏳ IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL VOTE OUTCOME 0-6H — late Thu UTC
⏳ IRGC-IMO-OMAN-REJECTION FIRST-EMPIRICAL-SOUTHERN-TRANSIT KINETIC-TEST 0-24H
⏳ MOJTABA-DAY-4-NIGHT-WINDOW RESOLUTION
⏳ POLYMARKET JUN-30 RESOLUTION JUN 29 — 4 DAYS TO SETTLEMENT AT 5% YES
⏳ BRENT THU CLOSE vs $72.48 PRE-WAR-FLOOR FORMAL-BREACH

1. Conflict Status

War Day 118 / Ceasefire Day 78. C178 → C179 (~3-6h): BRENT-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-INTRADAY-BREACH-$72.44 + CRUDE-SUB-$70-4TH-CONSECUTIVE + RUBIO-GCC-TOUR-WRAPS-"ZERO-SUPPORT-FOR-TOLLS"-FREEDOM-OF-NAV + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT-STRATEGIC-PARTNERSHIP + BAHRAIN-FM-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR + OMAN-NO-TRANSIT-TOLLS + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + IRGC-RHETORIC-NO-KINETIC + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA + 21M-MTD-JUNE-IRAN + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-POST-DEAL + MOJTABA-DAY-4-EVENING + LEBANON-5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + SENATE-WAR-POWERS-RESOLUTION-JUN-23-CARRY + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-3-6H.

Cross-leg status (C179):

🟡 Iran-Israel direct-leg: PAUSE HOLDS — 25th window; Ghalibaf + leverage-claim + $12B-claim + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable carries
🔴🔴/🟢 Iran-US Hormuz-leg DUAL-TIER + IRGC-FORMAL-REJECTION-CARRY + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED NEW + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA NEW: IRGC formal RE-CLOSURE DAY 7 PERSISTS + IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route Day-1-carry ↔ IMO-40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + 21M-MTD-JUNE-IRAN + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-POST-DEAL + Iran-FM-Ministry STRUCTURAL-FEATURE carries + Hormuz US-Iran comm-line + Bürgenstock-RESUME-NEXT-WEEK + $300B-fund + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA-JUN-23 NEW
🟢 Iran-US blockade-leg: OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18 carries; 60-day-clock Day 7 of 60; 35M+21M-MTD-empirical-confirmation; Senate war-powers-resolution Jun 23 passed 50-48 carry (4 Rep defections) + Trump "meaningless" rebuke carry
🔴🔴/🟢 Iran-US rhetorical-leg DUAL-MAX + RUBIO-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE + BAHRAIN-FM-OMAN-CORRIDOR-WELCOME + IAEA-DG-GHARIBABADI-RIFT + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY: IMO-40-SHIP + 60-DAY-ROADMAP + HORMUZ-COMM + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + $300B + 5TH-ROUND-LEBANON-DAY-3-CLOSED + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-CONCLUDED + GHALIBAF-$12B + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-FREEDOM-OF-NAV NEW + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT NEW ↔ IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-SOUTHERN-ROUTE-CARRY + GHARIBABADI + IAEA-DG-PUBLIC-MoU-ANCHOR + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-EVENING + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE-PUBLIC + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-5%-STICKY + Truth-Social-NO-TOLLS-60-DAYS + US-OFFICIAL-$12B-"SPIN" carries
🔴 Iran intra-elite + intra-state: IRAN FM-MINISTRY-TASNIM "OPERATING NORMALLY" VS IRGC-KHATAM-AL-ANBIYA-DAY-7 STRUCTURAL-FEATURE carries; IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA-Jun-23 introduce SECOND-PARALLEL-STATE-ACTOR-FRAMEWORK (Iran-Oman bilateral vs IMO-Oman binational) carries; Mojtaba written-approval Jun 18; Mojtaba 11 conditions Nabavian-leak; MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-EVENING; IRAN PARLIAMENT RATIFICATION VOTE DAY 3 OF 3 — FINAL — OUTCOME-PENDING LATE-THU
🔴 Israel-MOU posture: Netanyahu pre-talks vow carries; 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-WASHINGTON-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH; LEITER "TRAIN WRECK" carry; "ISRAEL WEIGHS SYMBOLIC WITHDRAWAL" carry; Bekaa-Douris carry
🔴 Lebanon-leg: CEASEFIRE-RENEWAL HOLDS-AT-DEGRADATION; 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH JUN 25; AOUN "END OF OCCUPATION" + ISRAELI-"SYMBOLIC-WITHDRAWAL"-FRAMING + LEBANON-PRESIDENCY US+LEBANON+IRAN CELL CARRY
🟢 Qatar (Ras Laffan): ATTRIBUTION-RESOLVED carries; 13 KIA + 66 INJURED + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING carries; EXPORTS-UNAFFECTED-OFFICIAL carries; LNG 50% within month + 80% within 2 months post-Hormuz-restoration framework carries
🔴 Yemen/Red Sea-leg: HOUTHI MULTI-VESSEL-WAVE carries; HATEM-2-DISPUTED carries; NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C178→C179 ~3-6H
🟢 Mediation: 8-tier mediator chain + 60-day-roadmap + Hormuz-comm-line + Lebanon-deconfliction-cell-conditional + PAKISTAN-FM-Bürgenstock-next-week + $300B-fund + Pezeshkian-Pakistan-CONCLUDED + 5th-round-Day-3-closed + IMO-OMAN-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-FREEDOM-OF-NAV NEW + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT NEW + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA NEW + $12B-claim-vs-"spin"-framing + IAEA-DG-public-alignment-with-MoU + Iraq-K-C-200K-current + 21M-MTD-Iran + 4.8mb/d-Hormuz-post-deal

Key Jun 25 C179 events (~3-6h delta from C178):

🟢🟢🟢 BRENT INTRADAY $72.44 — TOUCHES/BELOW FEB-27 PRE-WAR CLOSE $72.48
🟢🟢 WTI $69.35 INTRADAY — 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUB-$70 SESSION
🟢🟢 RUBIO WRAPS UP GCC TOUR JUN 25 — "ZERO SUPPORT FOR TOLLS" + INSISTS FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION
🟢 GCC-US JOINT MINISTERIAL STATEMENT — strategic partnership, regional security
🟢 BAHRAIN FM AL ZAYANI WELCOMES OMAN CORRIDOR; OMAN: NO TRANSIT TOLLS
🟢 IMO 40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED with allocated transit days
🔴 IRGC ENFORCEMENT-RHETORIC STAYS RHETORIC-TIER ~6h — no kinetic-enforcement-event
🔴🔴 POLYMARKET JUN-30 HOLDS AT 5% YES STICKY-LOW
🟡 IRAN-OMAN JOINT TRANSIT COMMITTEE — IRNA Jun 23 carry surfaces
🟢 IRAN MTD-JUNE: 21M BARRELS via Iranian-tankers; 4.8 mb/d HORMUZ flow post-deal
🔴 MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS DAY 4 MIDDAY → DAY 4 EVENING
🟡 LEBANON 5TH ROUND DAY 3 CLOSED — NO BREAKTHROUGH
⏳ IRAN PARLIAMENT MoU-RATIFICATION DAY 3 FINAL OUTCOME PENDING
🟢 NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C178→C179 ~3-6H

Cumulative casualties (C179 updates):

Iran civilians killed: 1,701+ HRANA STALE / 3,468 Foundation of Martyrs (carry)
Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs (carry)
US KIA/wounded: 13 / 381+ (carry)
Qatar (Ras Laffan industrial): 13 KIA + 66 INJURED + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING (carry)
Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities since Feb 28 (carry)
Israel (Lebanon-leg): 4 IDF SOLDIERS KIA JUN 19 carries
Lebanon: ~3,588-3,591+ baseline + Sohmor + 27+ cumulative + Bekaa-Douris carries; Jun 20 PBS: 83 killed + 141 wounded carries

Ceasefire likelihood assessment (C179): HOLDS HIGH-WITH-STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE-DEEPENS. C179 introduces FIVE major reinforcement-vectors: (1) Brent intraday-touch $72.44 at/below Feb-27 pre-war close $72.48 — first formal pre-war-floor-touch intraday-tier; (2) WTI sub-$70 4th consecutive session; (3) Rubio wraps GCC tour with "zero support for tolls" + freedom-of-navigation + GCC-multilateral joint statement; (4) Bahrain FM welcomes Oman corridor at GCC-tier + Oman confirms "no tolls"; (5) IMO 40-ship first transit group designated. IRGC kinetic-enforcement-pause sustains ~6h. Polymarket Jun-30 holds 5%-sticky. Mojtaba-Day-4-evening extends. Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final outcome pending. Critical 0-6h: (a) Iran-Parliament vote, (b) IRGC-IMO-Oman first-empirical-Southern-transit kinetic-test, (c) Mojtaba-Day-4-night, (d) Polymarket sub-5%, (e) Brent Thu close vs $72.48 floor, (f) Lloyd's Day-8-evening, (g) GCC readout substance.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current Status	Δ vs C178
Transits/day	PortWatch baseline 5 carries; Jun 23 = 25 (12 in + 13 out + 3 dark); NBC "23 vs ~93/day"; CNBC 35M-bbl-exited; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED — Day 2 late	🟢 40-SHIP-GROUP
Iran formal closure	C141 + KHATAM AL-ANBIYA RE-CLOSURE DAY 7 PERSISTS carries; IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route Day-1-carry	CARRY
IRGC Navy IMO-Oman-corridor-rejection	DAY 1 CARRY — rhetoric-tier enforcement-threat; NO kinetic-enforcement-event ~6h post-rejection	🔴 RHETORIC-CARRY
Iran-Oman joint transit committee	NEW C179 — IRNA Jun 23 carry: Iran and Oman opened talks for joint Hormuz transit framework + possible passage fees via joint committee per Hellenic Shipping carry	🟡 NEW-PARALLEL
Strait status	DUAL-DOCTRINE + IRGC-DAY-7 + IRGC-IMO-REJECTION-CARRY + BRENT-INTRADAY-$72.44-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH NEW + WTI-SUB-$70-4TH-DAY + IAEA-DG-ALIGNMENT + Bürgenstock-PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + $300B + Trump-20%-oil + Truth-Social-no-tolls + Pezeshkian-Pakistan-CONCLUDED + 5th-round-Day-3-closed + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED NEW + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT NEW + BAHRAIN-FM-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR NEW + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED NEW + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE NEW + LLOYD'S-DAY-8 + 35M+21M-MTD-CUMULATIVE + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-POST-DEAL + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY + Houthi-credibility-erosion + EIA-WPSR-OCT-1984-LOW + GHARIBABADI-IAEA-DG-REJECT + IRAQ-K-C-770K-RAMP	🟢 RUBIO + IMO-40 + BRENT-FLOOR
US kinetic activity	No fresh US-kinetic C179 ~3-6h; CENTCOM blockade-lifted	🟢 QUIESCENT
Iran kinetic activity — Hormuz-leg	NO NEW IRGC KINETIC C179 ~3-6h; IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route rhetoric-carry	🟢 NO-FRESH
Iran-Israel direct-leg	PAUSE HOLDS — 25th window	CARRY
US blockade — political	OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18 + 35M+21M-MTD; Trump-20%-oil + Truth-Social codification; PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + IAEA-DG-PUBLIC + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Gharibabadi + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-FREEDOM-OF-NAV NEW + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT NEW + SENATE-WAR-POWERS-RESOLUTION-JUN-23-CARRY	🟢🟢 RUBIO + GCC
US blockade — physical	OFFICIALLY LIFTED Jun 18; 60-day-clock Day 7 of 60; 35M+21M-MTD-BARRELS-EXITED + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-POST-DEAL + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED	🟢 40-SHIP
India safe passage	DISHA EMPIRICAL ARRIVAL carries	CARRY
China bilateral exception	Bilateral-exception via IRGC-permission carries; Iran 30M-week + 21M-MTD-June	CARRY
IRGC posture	Formal RE-CLOSURE DAY 7 PERSISTS via maritime-radio + IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route-with-enforcement-threat carry; rhetoric-pause-no-kinetic ~6h post-rejection	🔴 RHETORIC-CARRY
Houthi Red Sea blockade	MULTI-VESSEL-WAVE-CONFIRMED carries; STOLT/HAPPY-CONDOR "ERRONEOUS"; NO FRESH KINETIC C178→C179 ~3-6H	🟢 NO-FRESH
Mine threat	CRITICAL (JMIC); JMIC OMAN-COASTLINE OPERATIONAL; IMO-Oman-40-ship-first-group DESIGNATED with AIS + LRIT mandatory	🟢 40-SHIP
Mine clearance / escort	UK-FR 40-partner + RFA Lyme Bay + G7; Oman-Navy-evacuation-partner Day 2 late operational; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED NEW	🟢 40-SHIP
P&I re-entry	LLOYD'S CHUBB CONSORTIUM DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL HOLDS — $400M aggregate; no consortium-suspension despite IRGC-rejection-carry + Polymarket-5%-sticky + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-pending + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable compound; NO INDIVIDUAL P&I re-entry Day 78	🟢 DAY 8 EVENING
Seafarers stranded	~11,000 STRANDED PER IMO; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED — first allocated transit days; AIS + LRIT mandatory	🟢 40-SHIP
Vessels stranded	~2,000 in Hormuz area; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST-GROUP designated for first transits; 35M+21M-MTD-cumulative	🟢 40-SHIP
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan contract	Expires Jul 27 — 32 days; K-C ~200K bpd current empirical carries; Iraq-origin Hormuz crossings +20% four-week-ending Jun 14; Iraq share 40% week-of-Jun-8 per Breakwave Advisors	🟢 IRAQ-+20%
Iraq Hormuz/Basra June throughput	June MTD ~7M bbl carries; Basra operational; Iraq-share rising	CARRY
Iran $2M safe-passage fee / "Hormuz Safe"	MoU 14-point text carries; 60-day-window Jun 19 → Aug 18; Day 7 of 60; US-OFFICIAL "SPIN" carries; RUBIO GCC "ZERO SUPPORT FOR TOLLS" CODIFIED + OMAN "NO TRANSIT TOLLS"	🟢🟢 NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED

3. Tanker Attack Log

Running total (carries from C178): ~99+ commercial+infrastructure incidents since Feb 28; IMO 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities. C179 update: NO NEW kinetic strike-event C178→C179 ~3-6h window. IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route rhetoric-tier-carry (enforcement-threat issued Wed; NO enforcement-event executed ~6h+ post-rejection). STOLT SEQUOIA + HAPPY CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" carries. MSC SARAH V Hatem-2 disputed carries. UKMTO JUN-20 IRGC-claim STRUCTURALLY-UNCONFIRMED ~127H+ carries.

Date	Vessel/Target	Flag/Operator	Location	Type	Damage/Casualties	Δ
Jun 25 C179 OPERATIONAL POSITIVE NEW	IMO 40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED	Mixed flags (40 vessels)	IMO-Oman Southern corridor + Northern (Iran-coast)	First-allocated transit days; AIS + LRIT mandatory	OPERATIONAL FLOW-RESTART	🟢 NEW
Jun 25 C179 GCC-POSITIVE NEW	Rubio "zero support for tolls" + GCC-multilateral joint statement + Bahrain FM welcomes Oman corridor + Oman: no tolls	GCC-multilateral-tier	Bahrain GCC ministerial	Multilateral institutional backing	NON-KINETIC POSITIVE	🟢 NEW
Jun 25 C178 RHETORIC CARRY	IRGC Navy formal rejection of IMO-Oman Southern-route	Iran-state-actor (IRGC Navy)	Strait of Hormuz Southern (Oman-coast) route	Enforcement-threat issued Wed; NO kinetic-event ~6h+ post	NO KINETIC-EVENT YET; rhetoric-tier-only	🔴 RHETORIC-CARRY
Jun 24 (C172 carry)	MSC SARAH V	Liberian	Arabian Sea	Houthi missile; Hatem-2 hypersonic CLAIM DISPUTED	No damage / no crew injuries	CARRY
Jun 23/20 (C175 carry)	STOLT SEQUOIA + HAPPY CONDOR	Liberian/various	Indian Ocean / Red Sea	Houthi claims = "ERRONEOUS" per Wikipedia	TBD / likely no-incident	CARRY
Jun 23 (C172 carry)	M/V TRANS WORLD NAVIGATOR (2nd)	Liberian-Greek	Red Sea	Houthi 2nd USV strike within 24h	No fresh casualty	CARRY
Jun 23 (C171 carry)	M/V TRANS WORLD NAVIGATOR (1st)	Liberian-Greek	Red Sea	Houthi USV strike per Saree; 4th cumulative	Minor injuries + moderate damage	CARRY
Jun 22 (Qatar — attribution-resolved)	RAS LAFFAN BARZAN	Qatar	Ras Laffan Industrial City	Internal explosion / Al-Kaabi attribution	13 KIA + 66 + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING	CARRY
Jun 21 (Lebanon NNA)	SOHMOR HOUSE	Lebanon	Sohmor, western Bekaa	Israeli airstrike Sunday	4 KIA + 1 wounded	CARRY
Jun 22-23 (Lebanon)	BEKAA DOURIS village	Lebanon	Bekaa Valley	IDF airstrikes despite ceasefire-renewal	Casualty count pending	CARRY
Jun 20 C165 (STRUCTURALLY-UNCONFIRMED)	TWO VESSELS REPORTEDLY STRUCK BY IRGC	Iranian domestic media	Strait of Hormuz	IRGC enforcement-claim	NO INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION ~127H+	CARRY
Jun 20 C165 (POSITIVE)	55 MERCHANT SHIPS HORMUZ TRANSIT (CENTCOM Saturday)	Mixed; ~17M barrels	Strait of Hormuz	POSITIVE TRANSIT	~17M bbl single-day flow	CARRY
Jun 23 (POSITIVE)	25 VESSEL TRANSIT — 12 IN + 13 OUT + 3 DARK per IndexBox/HSToday/UANI	Mixed flags	Strait of Hormuz	POSITIVE TRANSIT	25/day vs ~93/day normal	CARRY
Jun 18-24 (CUMULATIVE)	35 MILLION BARRELS EXITED HORMUZ SINCE DEAL per CNBC + 21M-MTD-JUNE Iran-flag tankers per Hellenic Shipping	Mixed flags	Strait of Hormuz	POSITIVE CUMULATIVE BARREL-TIER	~5 mb/d cumulative; 4.8 mb/d post-deal MTD-tier	🟢 21M+4.8MB/D
Jun 21 (POSITIVE)	PortWatch baseline 5 / Lloyd's 12 Sun vs 35 Sat	Mixed flags	Strait of Hormuz	POSITIVE but PORTWATCH-FLOOR	PortWatch-floor 5	CARRY
Jun 16-22 (POSITIVE)	30 MILLION BARRELS IRANIAN OIL Bloomberg Jun 22	Iran + shadow + Kharg	Hormuz + Kharg	POSITIVE WEEKLY	30M-bbl/week ~ 4.3 mb/d	CARRY
Jun 17 (CENTCOM)	M/V LIAN STAR	Gambian	Toward Iranian port	CENTCOM Hellfire engine-room	Disabled	CARRY
Mar 17-18	South Pars / Ras Laffan / Asaluyeh	Iran/Qatar	Persian Gulf	Israeli + Iranian strikes	Major LNG/gas damage (3-5yr repair)	CARRY

C179 attack-event summary: NO NEW kinetic strike-events C178→C179 ~3-6h window. IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route at rhetoric-tier-DAY-1-carry with enforcement-threat declared Wed; NO kinetic-enforcement-event executed ~6h+ post-rejection — gap between enforcement-rhetoric and kinetic-event sustains. First operational-empirical-allocation: IMO 40-ship first transit group designated with AIS + LRIT mandatory. Houthi-credibility-erosion meta-attribution carries. Lloyd's Day 8 evening operational holds. Iran-Oman joint transit committee per IRNA Jun 23 surfaces as parallel-architecture. 21M-MTD-Iran-tankers + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz flow post-deal sustains positive-flow at MTD-cumulative-tier.

4. Oil Prices

Benchmark	C179 Read (Thu late-afternoon UTC)	C178 Read	Pre-war	Peak (Apr 7)	Δ vs C178
Brent (front-month / prompt)	$73.43 intraday Jun 25 (Investing.com); prev close $73.87; Wed Jun 24 close $73.74 cross-source; INTRADAY TOUCH $72.44 — AT/BELOW FEB-27 PRE-WAR CLOSE $72.48	$73.05 close	~$70 / $72.48 (Feb-27 close)	$138	🟢🟢 PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH
Brent (Aug-contract / Investing.com)	$75.47 intraday Jun 25 carry; Aug-contract premium narrows on prompt-floor-touch	$75.47 carry	—	—	CARRY
Brent (Jul-01-settlement / CME)	$77.08 last carry	$77.08 carry	—	—	CARRY
WTI (front-month)	$69.35 intraday Jun 25 per Trading Economics; 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUB-$70 SESSION; "nearly wiped out all gains since outbreak of Middle East conflict"	$69.13	~$67	$138 / $117	🟢🟢 SUB-$70-4TH-DAY
Brent-WTI spread (prompt)	~$4 (range-stable)	~$4	~$3	—	CARRY
VLCC TD3C	Sinokor 897 WS YTD-high carries; $470K/day at Hormuz-VLCC-spike-tier carries; IRGC-rejection-pause-rhetoric tempered by IMO-40-ship-first-group-DESIGNATED	🟡 RATE-COMPRESSION-MIXED	$117K pre-war	$423.7K Mar	🟡 MIXED
War risk premium	0.8-1.5% non-flagged hull per Lloyd's Chubb; 2.5-5% US/UK/Israeli-nexus; Lloyd's Chubb consortium DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL HOLDS; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric ↔ IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + RUBIO-GCC-CODIFIED tempers widen-pressure	🟡 PRESSURE-TEMPERED	0.02-0.15%	—	🟡 TEMPERED
Goldman $100 "adverse case"	NOT breached; Brent prompt distance ~$27 (~$28 at floor-touch)	~$27	—	—	CARRY
Goldman 2026 Brent base case	$85/bbl 2026 avg / Q4 $71; prompt-$72.44-TOUCH amplifies Goldman revision pressure	🟡 PRESSURE-AMPLIFIED	—	—	🟡 PRESSURE-AMPLIFIED
JPMorgan 2026 baseline	$60/bbl per JPM; prompt-$72.44-touch tracks JPM-tier closer	Same	—	—	🟡 JPM-CLOSER
Analyst-tier divergence	Goldman $85 vs JPM $60 — $25/bbl spread; prompt-floor-touch tracks JPM-tier; Goldman base case under pressure	🟡 JPM-CLOSER	—	—	🟡 JPM-CLOSER
Pre-war Brent distance (prompt)	NEGATIVE INTRADAY — $72.44 < $72.48 Feb-27 close; FIRST-EVER-TOUCH	~$3	—	—	🟢🟢 FLOOR-TOUCH
Equity-tier (Asia)	Asia Thu close mixed-to-firmer on Brent-prompt-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + 35M+21M-MTD + IMO-40-ship + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Pezeshkian-CONCLUDED + Iraq-K-C-200K	🟢 FIRMS	—	—	🟢 FIRMS
Equity-tier (US futures/intraday)	US Thursday opens firmer on prompt-Brent-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70 + 35M+21M-MTD + IAEA-DG + IMO-40-ship + 5th-round-closed + Iraq-K-C + Pakistan-FM + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls-codified; IRGC-rejection + Polymarket-Jun-30-5%-sticky modest counterweigh	🟢 FIRMS	—	—	🟢 FIRMS
Price drivers C179	BRENT-PROMPT-INTRADAY-$72.44-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH + WTI-SUB-$70-4TH-DAY + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT + BAHRAIN-FM-OMAN-CORRIDOR + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-EVENING + IAEA-DG-PUBLIC + 35M+21M-MTD-CUMULATIVE + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-POST-DEAL + EIA-WPSR-OCT-1984-LOW + 60-DAY-ROADMAP + HORMUZ-COMM + $300B + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-CONCLUDED + IRAQ-K-C-200K-CURRENT-+20%-FOUR-WEEK + IRAQI-CABINET-770K-RAMP-PLAN + US-WAIVER-60-DAY + $12B-CLAIM-"SPIN" ↔ IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-SOUTHERN-ROUTE-RHETORIC-CARRY + POLYMARKET-JUN-30-5%-STICKY + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-EVENING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + GHARIBABADI + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE + GHALIBAF-DOCTRINAL + IRGC-DAY-7 + FM-VS-IRGC-STRUCTURAL-FEATURE + LEITER-TRAIN-WRECK + AOUN-END-OCCUPATION + ISRAEL-SYMBOLIC-WITHDRAWAL + HOUTHI-CREDIBILITY-EROSION + GOLDMAN-$85-JPM-$60-DIVERGENCE-with-Goldman-pressure-amplified. Forward paths: (a) $66-73 prompt base case Thu close → Fri if IRGC-rhetoric stays-non-kinetic + IMO-40-ship-first-transit-no-incident + Iran-Parliament-vote-non-rejection + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening-no-overt-rejection + 5th-round-closes-no-escalation + Lloyd's-Day-8-evening-holds; (b) $71-77 prompt-retrace if IRGC-kinetic-enforcement-incident OR Iran-Parliament-rejection OR Mojtaba-overt-rejection OR IMO-40-ship-first-transit-kinetic-fail OR Houthi-fresh-kinetic + Polymarket-stays-5%; (c) $77-85 prompt multi-leg compound; (d) $85-94 multi-leg-simultaneous.	$68-75 base C178 → $66-73 base C179	—	—	🟢🟢 FLOOR-TOUCH
EIA WPSR Jun 24	RELEASED week-ending Jun 19: crude -6.088 mb; total incl. SPR OCT-1984-LOW carries; next Jul 1	CARRY	—	—	CARRY
IEA OMR Jun 2026	Jun carries; 2027 supply ~110 mb/d vs demand 105.3 mb/d; IEA-PAUSE pre-positions carries	CARRY	—	—	CARRY

5. SPR

Release	Announced	Barrels	Physical Delivery Status	Δ vs C178
IEA coordinated	Mar 11	400M	~280M+ consumed; IEA-PAUSE pre-positioning carries	CARRY
US SPR	Mar 11	172M (committed); ~66M drawn cumulative; DOE 17.5M since March; TOTAL CRUDE incl SPR 743.3M OCT-1984-LOW carries	CARRY
Japan SPR	Mar 18	80M; PM Takaichi pause-tier	CARRY
Korea SPR	Mar 18	40M	CARRY
India SPR	Mar 18	5M+	DISHA empirical-arrival Dahej confirms	CARRY
China SPR	Bilateral exception	~108 DOS	Bilateral-exception + Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD-June	CARRY

Country	Reserve Days	Emergency Actions	Δ vs C178
US	~10 SPR + commercial	Trump "4 weeks without deal" carries; EIA-WPSR oct-1984-low carries; Senate war-powers-resolution Jun 23 passed 50-48 carry	🟡 SENATE-CARRY
Japan	~150 DOS	PM Takaichi pause-tier carries	CARRY
Korea	~110 DOS	40M release	CARRY
India	~78 commercial + 5 SPR	DISHA carries; Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD supports	CARRY
China	~108 DOS	Bilateral exception; Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD supports Asia-flow	CARRY
Saudi	30+ days operational + pipeline buffer	Rubio Bahrain GCC ministerial Jun 25 includes Saudi-tier substance	🟡 RUBIO-GCC
Philippines	60-day inventory (triple minimum); state of emergency Mar 24	Fuel-visibility deadline Jun 30 — 4 DAYS; Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Brent-floor-touch + IMO-40-ship-first-group eases buffer-confidence; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric + Polymarket-5% partial counter	🟢 EASES
Pakistan	<45 days	PM Sharif + Bürgenstock-mediator + Pezeshkian-CONCLUDED; Pakistan-FM-Jun-25-reconfirms-Bürgenstock-next-week carries	CARRY

SPR runway math (C179): US 172M committed + Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD-June + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz-post-deal + CENTCOM-Saturday-55 + 35M-bbl-cumulative-CNBC + Bürgenstock-Pakistan-FM-RECONFIRMS + $300B + Lloyd's-Day-8-evening + 5th-round-Day-3-closed + Pezeshkian-CONCLUDED + IMO-40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT + BAHRAIN-FM-OMAN-CORRIDOR-WELCOME + IAEA-DG + EIA-WPSR-OCT-1984-LOW + IRAQ-K-C-770K-RAMP + IRAQ-+20%-FOUR-WEEK + BRENT-INTRADAY-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH + WTI-SUB-$70-4TH-DAY ↔ IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CARRY + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY + IRGC-Day-7 + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-EVENING + GHARIBABADI + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + $12B-"SPIN" empirical-counter-pressure → structural-discharge-pillar deepens with Brent-pre-war-floor-touch + IMO-40-ship-first-group + Rubio-GCC-codified anchoring at higher-confidence baseline tier. Total-supply-buffer-exhaustion deadline holds at ~160-200+ days under base-case-no-fresh-supply-disruption + Iraq-K-C-770K-Aug-Sep + 21M-MTD-Iran sustained; IRGC-IMO-rejection-kinetic-enforcement-test on first IMO-40-ship-transit is critical 0-24h modifier.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity (mb/d)	Utilization (mb/d)	Spare (mb/d)	Status	Δ vs C178
Saudi East-West pipeline	7.0	~5.0	~2.0	Yanbu bottleneck carries	CARRY
UAE ADCOP	1.5	~1.0	~0.5	UAE 85%-pre-war IEA-empirical carries	CARRY
Iraq-Turkey K-C	1.4	~0.20 CURRENT (200K BPD per March-resume reference + 220K target current per Iraq-cabinet) → TARGET 0.77 (770K bpd in 2.5 months per Iraqi Cabinet Jun 21)	~1.2 → ~0.63	Resumed Mar 18; 1-year extension sought; Jul 27 expires 32 days; Iraq-Hormuz-crossings +20% four-week-ending Jun 14; Iraq-share 40% week-of-Jun-8 per Breakwave	🟢 IRAQ-+20%
Iraq Basra-Haditha (planned)	2.5 (target)	0	2.5	Launched 700km/2.5mb/d construction; medium-term	CARRY
Iraq Basra-Ceyhan (IEA-Birol proposal)	TBD	0	TBD	IEA-Birol-proposal carries	CARRY
Oman ports (Duqm, Salalah)	<0.5	<0.5	minimal	Mina Al Fahal SBM resumed; Oman temporary maritime corridor SOUTH-OF-TSS + IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED Day-2-late; "no transit tolls" Oman-codified at GCC	🟢 40-SHIP + NO-TOLLS
Egypt SUMED	2.4	~0.5	~1.9	Capacity carries	CARRY
Cape of Good Hope	unlimited	minimal	—	Carries	CARRY

GAP metric (C179): GAP: 5-7 mb/d closing structurally + Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD-June + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz-post-deal + 35M-bbl-cumulative-CNBC + IMO-40-SHIP FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS + UAE-85%-pre-war + IRAQ-K-C-220K-current-+20%-four-week + IRAQ-Cabinet-770K-RAMP ↔ IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CARRY. GAP holds at 5-7 mb/d; C179 structural-discharge-pillar deepens with IMO-40-ship-first-group-designated empirical-operational movement and Rubio-GCC-no-tolls-codified multilateral-anchor. Brent prompt intraday floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day confirm market-tier deepening structural-gap-narrowing read.

7. Maritime Insurance

Parameter	Current	Δ vs C178
War risk premium % (non-flagged hull)	0.8-1.5% per Lloyd's Chubb; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric-carry ↔ IMO-40-ship-first-group + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Bahrain-FM-welcomes-Oman-corridor tempers widen-pressure	🟡 PRESSURE-TEMPERED
War risk premium % (US/UK/Israeli-nexus)	2.5-5%; per-transit $0.8M-2M VLCC carries; Sinokor-897 carry; IRGC-rejection-pause-rhetoric ↔ IMO-40-ship tempers	🟡 PRESSURE-TEMPERED
P&I club Gulf coverage	NO INDIVIDUAL re-entry Day 78; LLOYD'S CHUBB-LED CONSORTIUM DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL HOLDS — $400M aggregate; CHUBB CEO "hour-to-hour"; Day 8 morning → midday → evening transition complete despite IRGC-formal-rejection-carry + Polymarket-5%-sticky + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + Gharibabadi compound	🟢 DAY 8 EVENING
Lloyd's 4-condition framework	4/4 OPERATIONAL-TIER HOLDS DAY 8 EVENING with IRGC-rejection-carry + IMO-40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls-codified + Polymarket-5%-sticky + Brent-prompt-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + IAEA-DG + Houthi-credibility-erosion + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-pending + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Bürgenstock-resume-next-week + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable: (1) ratification — Mojtaba Jun-18 + Iran-Parliament-vote-Day-3-final-pending; (2) IRGC retraction — Day-7 + IRGC-IMO-rejection-rhetoric-carry tempered by IMO-40-ship-first-group-designated empirical; (3) US-blockade-lift — OFFICIALLY OPERATIONAL + 35M+21M-MTD + 4.8 mb/d + IMO-40-SHIP; (4) coordinated-insurance — DFC + Lloyd's consortium operational Day 8 evening	🟢 4/4 HOLDS-DEEPENS
VLCC day rates	Sinokor 897 WS YTD-high carries; $470K-day spike-tier carries; Gulf VLCC ~$190K+; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric ↔ IMO-40-ship-designated tempers further	🟡 TEMPERED
US $20B DFC reinsurance	Operational carries ($40B expanded)	CARRY
BIMCO surcharge	BIMCO carries; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric-tier + IMO-40-ship-first-group-designated + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Iraq-K-C-220K-current-+20% sustain compression-pathway	🟢 COMPRESSION-DEEPENS
Crew refusal rate	Hormuz-tier reduction holds on Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Lloyd's-Day-8-evening + COMM-LINE + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric ↔ IMO-40-ship tempers further	🟢 TEMPERED
Fixture cancellations	Hormuz-tier stabilizes on UK-FR-40-partner + JMIC + Lloyd's-Day-8-evening + IMO-40-SHIP + 35M+21M-MTD; Rubio-GCC-no-tolls-codified sustains compression	🟢 COMPRESSION-DEEPENS

P&I re-entry ABSENCE tracker (C179): NO INDIVIDUAL P&I club has re-entered Gulf coverage Day 78, BUT Lloyd's Chubb-led consortium DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL HOLDS ($400M aggregate) sustains MAXIMAL-OPERATIONAL-TIER through IRGC-NAVY-FORMAL-REJECTION-IMO-OMAN-CARRY + Polymarket-Jun-30-5%-STICKY + Brent-prompt-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + 35M+21M-MTD + EIA-WPSR-draw + IAEA-DG + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Iran-Parliament-vote-Day-3-final-pending + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Gharibabadi + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + Rubio-Bahrain-GCC + $12B-"spin" carry compound. IMO 40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED with allocated transit days + AIS + LRIT mandatory validates binational-architecture viability into operational-empirical-allocation-tier DESPITE IRGC-formal-rejection at rhetoric-tier; first-empirical-transit kinetic-test pending. Rubio-GCC "zero support for tolls" + Bahrain-FM-welcomes-Oman-corridor + Oman-codified-no-tolls multilateral-tier institutional backing counters IRGC-rejection at GCC-tier. 35M-cumulative + 21M-MTD-Iran + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz-post-deal sustains flow-restoration at MTD-empirical-tier. Structural-discharge-tier narrative: consortium-tier institutional-capacity-restoration operational Day-8-evening + IMO-40-ship-first-group-designated + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Brent-prompt-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + EIA-WPSR + IAEA-DG + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + 35M+21M-MTD = septuple-validation deepens pre-positioning of first individual P&I re-entry pathway. Consortium-suspension-vector now requires IRGC-overt-kinetic-enforcement-incident on IMO-40-ship-first-transit OR Iran-Parliament-overt-rejection-vote OR Mojtaba-overt-rejection-Day-4-night OR Houthi-fresh-kinetic-overnight OR Lebanon-5th-round-overt-breakdown OR IMO-40-ship-first-transit-kinetic-fail OR Bürgenstock-next-week-no-resume.

8. Shadow Fleet

C179 narrative: Windward C171 ~1,100 dark fleet vessels globally carries; Iranian supertankers switching transponders ON post-blockade-lift carries. Bloomberg Jun 22 Iran 30 million barrels past week carries — structural-legitimization. Hellenic Shipping Jun 25: 21M MTD-June Iran-flag tankers exited Hormuz + 4.8 mb/d total Hormuz post-deal flow confirms MTD-cumulative-tier discharge. CNBC Jun 24: 35M barrels cumulative. Jun 23 25-vessel transit carries. IMF PortWatch baseline 5 + IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls-codified + Brent-prompt-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + EIA-WPSR-OCT-1984-LOW + UAE-85% + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + Iraq-+20%-four-week reinforce shadow-to-legitimate transition narrative. IRAN-OMAN JOINT TRANSIT COMMITTEE per IRNA Jun 23 carry introduces parallel-architecture-vector — Iran-Oman bilateral framework parallels IMO-Oman binational architecture. Iran-IAEA-refined-walkback + IAEA-DG-Grossi public-confirms-inspectors carry. IRGC Day-7 + IRGC-IMO-Oman-formal-rejection-Day-1-carry + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening-silence + Gharibabadi-deputy-FM + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable + Iran-Parliament-vote-Day-3-final-pending + $12B-"spin" + Polymarket-5%-sticky introduce intra-elite + market-tier-consensus friction-vectors but do NOT slow shadow-fleet transition — Iranian shadow-fleet operational-tier holds at empirical-tier; IMO-40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + EIA-WPSR + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + Rubio-GCC-codified confirm structural-flow-restoration architecture that legitimizes Iranian-flow at institutional-anchor-evening-tier with IAEA-DG-public-alignment compounding institutional-momentum DESPITE IRGC-IMO-rejection-rhetoric-tier-carry and Polymarket-5%-sticky.

9. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Key Actions (C179)	Risk Level	Δ vs C178
US	DEAL-COMPLETION + RUBIO-GCC-TOUR-WRAPS-NO-TOLLS-FREEDOM-OF-NAV-CODIFIED NEW + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + IRAN-30M-WEEK + 21M-MTD + Trump-20%-oil + Lloyd's-Day-8-evening + IAEA-DG + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + US-OFFICIAL-$12B-"SPIN" + IMO-40-SHIP + BRENT-FLOOR-TOUCH + WTI-SUB-$70 + 35M+21M-MTD-CUMULATIVE + SENATE-WAR-POWERS-RESOLUTION-JUN-23-50-48-CARRY	CENTCOM blockade-lifted; Sat 55-vessel; Working groups Pakistan-FM-RECONFIRMS-next-week; $300B; US-official $12B "spin"; IMO-40-ship; Rubio Bahrain GCC ministerial Jun 25 wraps: "zero support for tolls" + freedom-of-navigation insists; Trump "meaningless" rebuke of Senate carries	🟢 LOW-MODERATE	🟢🟢 RUBIO-WRAPS
Iran (Mojtaba + state)	MOJTABA WRITTEN APPROVAL + NABAVIAN-LEAK + MOJTABA-SILENCE-DAY-4-EVENING + IRGC RE-CLOSURE DAY 7 + IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Day-1-carry + GHALIBAF + $12B-CLAIM + BAQAEI-REFINED-NPT-PRESERVED + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-CONCLUDED + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE + FM-MINISTRY STRUCTURAL-FEATURE + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA-JUN-23 NEW + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-VOTE-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + GHARIBABADI	Mojtaba written-approval; IRGC Day 7 + IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-rhetoric-carry; FM-IRGC structural-feature; Baqaei refined-walkback; Iran-Oman joint transit committee per IRNA Jun 23 surfaces; Iran Parliament Day-3-final-outcome-pending late-Thu UTC	🔴🔴 HIGH	🟡 IRAN-OMAN-NEW
Israel	LEBANON CEASEFIRE-RENEWAL HOLDS-DEGRADATION + IDF-BEKAA-DOURIS + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + LEITER-TRAIN-WRECK + ISRAELI-SYMBOLIC-WITHDRAWAL + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE Cabinet-objection-vector	Netanyahu carries; IDF Bekaa-Douris; 5th-round Day 3 closed without breakthrough; Leiter "U.S.-Iran MoU has given Tehran undue influence in Lebanon"; "symbolic withdrawal" framing	🔴 HIGH	🟡 DAY-3-CLOSED
Lebanon (Hezbollah)	CEASEFIRE-RENEWAL HOLDS + SOHMOR-NNA + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + AOUN END-OCCUPATION + LEBANON-PRESIDENCY US+LEBANON+IRAN CELL	Hezbollah ceasefire; cumulative 27+ killed; Jun 20 PBS: 83 killed; 5th-round Day 3 closed; Aoun carries; cell-study carries; Bekaa-Douris carries	🔴 HIGH	🟡 DAY-3-CLOSED
Saudi	LLOYD'S-DAY-8-EVENING + CENTCOM SATURDAY-55 + HORMUZ-COMM + IRAN-30M-WEEK + IMO-40-SHIP + BRENT-FLOOR-TOUCH + 35M+21M-MTD + EIA-WPSR + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-WRAPS-JUN-25-SAUDI-PARTICIPATES + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT-STRATEGIC-PARTNERSHIP NEW	MBS covenant; 3 Saudi VLCCs + AIS-uplift; Saudi participates in GCC ministerial Bahrain Jun 25 wraps + joint statement	🟢 LOW	🟢 GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT
UAE	LLOYD'S + JMIC + SATURDAY-55 + HORMUZ-COMM + IRAN-30M-WEEK + IMO-40-SHIP + BRENT-FLOOR + IEA-UAE-85%-PRE-WAR + RUBIO-VISITS-UAE-23-25-JUN	Khor Fakkan; ADCOP; IEA 85% pre-war; Rubio UAE Jun 23-25	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Qatar (Ras Laffan)	ATTRIBUTION-RESOLVED-MAX + EXPORTS-UNAFFECTED + MEDIATOR-TIER + LNG-RESTORATION-FRAMEWORK + $12B-QATAR-TRANCHE-"SPIN"	Tamim; Al-Kaabi; 13 KIA + 66 + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING; Qatar 50%-within-month + 80%-within-2-months post-Hormuz-restoration framework	🟢 LOW-MODERATE	CARRY
Iraq	BASRA-VIA-K-C + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-EVENING + SATURDAY-55 + HORMUZ-COMM + IMO-40-SHIP + IRAQI-CABINET 220K → 770K BPD RAMP + HORMUZ-+20%-FOUR-WEEK + IRAQ-SHARE-40%-WEEK NEW	Iraq K-C 200K-220K current empirical; Iraqi Cabinet Jun 21 K-C 220K → 770K BPD ramp; 1-year K-C extension sought; Jul 27 expiry 32 days; Iraq Hormuz-origin crossings +20% four-week-ending Jun 14; Iraq share 40% week-of-Jun-8 per Breakwave	🟢 LOW	🟢 +20% NEW
Kuwait	TANKERS EXIT + PRODUCTION INCREASE + SATURDAY-55 + HORMUZ-COMM + IMO-40-SHIP + RUBIO-VISITS-KUWAIT-23-25-JUN	Tankers exiting; Kuwait-production; Rubio Kuwait Jun 23-25	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Bahrain	RUBIO-AT-BAHRAIN-GCC-MINISTERIAL-JUN-25-WRAPS + BAHRAIN-FM-AL-ZAYANI-CHAIRS-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR NEW + LLOYD'S	Bahrain FM Al Zayani chaired GCC ministerial; welcomed Oman corridor announcement	🟢 LOW	🟢🟢 CHAIRS
Oman	JMIC + HORMUZ-COMM + OMAN-NHO + OMAN-NAVY + IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + OMAN: "NO TRANSIT TOLLS" CODIFIED AT GCC NEW + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA-JUN-23 NEW	Mina Al Fahal SBM; JMIC; Oman-Navy + IMO bilateral; IMO 40-ship first group designated; Oman tells Bahrain GCC meeting "no transit tolls"; Iran-Oman opened talks for joint transit framework via joint committee per IRNA Jun 23	🟡 IRGC-RHETORIC-CARRY	🟢🟢 40-SHIP + NO-TOLLS
China	BILATERAL-EXCEPTION + IRAN-30M-WEEK + 21M-MTD	Bilateral exception + Iran-30M-week + 21M-MTD carries	🟢 LOW	CARRY
India	DISHA + LLOYD'S-DAY-8-EVENING + SATURDAY-55 + HORMUZ-COMM + IRAN-30M-WEEK + IMO-40-SHIP + BRENT-FLOOR + 35M+21M-MTD	DISHA; Indians among 13 KIA Ras Laffan	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Japan	LLOYD'S + HORMUZ-COMM + PM-TAKAICHI-PAUSE + IRAN-30M-WEEK + IMO-40-SHIP + BRENT-FLOOR + 35M+21M-MTD	80M SPR; Takaichi pause	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Korea	LLOYD'S + HORMUZ-COMM + IRAN-30M-WEEK + IMO-40-SHIP + BRENT-FLOOR + 35M+21M-MTD + SINOKOR-897-WS	40M SPR; Sinokor 897 WS YTD-high	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Pakistan	PM SHARIF + COAS MUNIR + 5TH-ROUND-CO-FACILITATOR + PEZESHKIAN-CONCLUDED + PAKISTAN-FM-JUN-25-RECONFIRMS-BÜRGENSTOCK-NEXT-WEEK + PEZESHKIAN-PAKISTAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE	Pezeshkian Day-2 CONCLUDED; Daily Times confirms; Pakistan FM Jun 25 reconfirms "next round US-Iran talks set to restart next week"	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Philippines	FUEL-VISIBILITY DEADLINE JUN 30 — 4 DAYS	Iran-30M + 21M-MTD + Brent-floor-touch + IMO-40-ship + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + 5th-round-closed + US-waiver + EIA-WPSR + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp eases; IRGC-rejection-rhetoric + Polymarket-5%-sticky partial counter	🟢 EASES	🟢 EASES
Turkey	K-C OPERATIONAL + 1-YEAR EXTENSION SOUGHT + 220K → 770K-BPD RAMP-PLAN	K-C resumed Mar 18; 32 days to Jul 27; 220K → 770K bpd ramp 2.5 months	🟢 LOW	CARRY
EU/UK	LLOYD'S-DAY-8-EVENING LONDON + UK-FR MISSION + STARMER-RESIGNATION + UK-FR-COALITION-RED-SEA-RESPONSE-PENDING	UK-FR 40-partner + RFA Lyme Bay; Lloyd's $400M Day 8 evening; Starmer-resignation carries	🟡 LOW-PENDING	CARRY
Switzerland	BÜRGENSTOCK-FACILITATOR-PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS	Swiss FDFA Bürgenstock-facilitator; Pakistan FM Jun 25 reconfirms early-next-week resume	🟢 LOW	CARRY
Yemen (Houthi)	MULTI-VESSEL-WAVE CARRIES + STOLT/HAPPY-CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" + HATEM-2-DISPUTED + NO FRESH KINETIC C178→C179 ~3-6H	Houthi-Saree carries; HATEM 2 disputed; NO FRESH KINETIC C178→C179 ~3-6H	🟡 CREDIBILITY-EROSION	🟢 NO-FRESH
IMO (institutional)	40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED with allocated transit days + AIS + LRIT mandatory NEW + MASS EVACUATION 11,000+ + TWO TEMPORARY CORRIDORS	IMO Sec-Gen Dominguez; binational coordination; Oman leads; IMO daily-update; 40-ship first group can proceed to holding area + begin transits per Maritime Executive	🟢🟢 40-SHIP-DESIGNATED	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
IAEA (institutional)	DG GROSSI PUBLICLY CONFIRMS INSPECTORS WILL VISIT — INSTITUTIONAL-ANCHOR with MoU	Grossi: "MoU signed by both presidents...inspections going to happen" carries; Gharibabadi attributed-rejection carries	🟢 INSTITUTIONAL-ANCHOR	CARRY
GCC (multilateral)	JOINT MINISTERIAL STATEMENT JUN 25 — STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP + REGIONAL SECURITY + INTENSIFIED COORDINATION NEW	Aawsat: "Foreign Ministers of GCC + Rubio stressed commitment to strengthening strategic partnership and intensifying coordination on regional and international issues"	🟢🟢 JOINT-STATEMENT	🟢🟢 NEW
US Congress	SENATE WAR POWERS RESOLUTION PASSED JUN 23 50-48 + 4 REPUBLICAN DEFECTIONS + TRUMP "MEANINGLESS" REBUKE CARRY	Senate vote 50-48 Jun 23; Cassidy + Murkowski + Collins + Paul defections; lone Dem Fetterman against; first war powers res to pass both chambers; Trump "Four Republican Losers + poorly timed and meaningless"	🟡 LEGISLATIVE-TIER	CARRY

10. Policy Actions

Date	Actor	Action	Δ vs C178
Jun 25 Thu (C179 NEW)	Sec. State Rubio (US)	WRAPS UP GCC TOUR IN BAHRAIN — "ZERO SUPPORT FOR ANY SORT OF TOLL OR FEES OR ANYTHING THAT CHARGES FOR THE USE OF INTERNATIONAL WATERS" + INSISTS ON FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION per RFE/RL + Yahoo + Outlook India + USNews + Algemeiner + Sunday Guardian + News of Bahrain	🟢🟢 RUBIO-NO-TOLLS
Jun 25 Thu (C179 NEW)	GCC + US (joint ministerial)	JOINT STATEMENT — "stress commitment to strengthening strategic partnership + intensifying coordination on regional and international issues + regional security + protects shared interests" per Aawsat	🟢🟢 GCC-JOINT
Jun 25 Thu (C179 NEW)	Bahrain FM Al Zayani	CHAIRED GCC GATHERING; WELCOMED OMAN'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF CORRIDOR FOR SAFE PASSAGE; OMAN TELLS MEETING FUTURE HORMUZ ARRANGEMENTS "WOULD NOT INVOLVE TRANSIT TOLLS" per RFE/RL	🟢 BAHRAIN-WELCOMES
Jun 25 Thu (C179 NEW)	IMO	40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED — vessels can proceed to holding area and begin transits; AIS + LRIT mandatory per Maritime Executive	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
Jun 25 Thu (C179 NEW)	Trading Economics / Brent intraday	BRENT INTRADAY $72.44 — AT/BELOW FEB-27 PRE-WAR CLOSE $72.48; intraday $73.43 prev close $73.87 per Hellenic Shipping + Investing.com + Trading Economics	🟢🟢 BRENT-FLOOR
Jun 25 Thu (C179 NEW)	Trading Economics / WTI intraday	WTI $69.35 INTRADAY — 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUB-$70 SESSION — "nearly wiped out all gains since outbreak of Middle East conflict"	🟢🟢 WTI-4TH-DAY
Jun 25 Thu (C179 SURFACES)	Polymarket	HORMUZ-NORMALIZE-JUN-30 HOLDS AT 5% YES STICKY-LOW; $34.7M traded; resolves Jun 29 — 4 days; resolves on IMF Portwatch 7-day MA ≥60 transits	🔴🔴 5%-STICKY
Jun 25 Thu (C179 SURFACES)	IRNA Jun 23 carry / Hellenic Shipping	IRAN AND OMAN OPENED TALKS FOR JOINT HORMUZ TRANSIT FRAMEWORK + POSSIBLE PASSAGE FEES VIA JOINT COMMITTEE	🟡 IRAN-OMAN-PARALLEL
Jun 25 Thu (C179 SURFACES)	Hellenic Shipping / Bloomberg-CNBC carry	IRAN-FLAG TANKERS 21M BARRELS EXITED HORMUZ MTD-JUNE + 4.8 MB/D TOTAL HORMUZ FLOW POST-DEAL	🟢 21M-MTD
Jun 25 Thu (C179 SURFACES)	Breakwave Advisors	IRAQ HORMUZ-ORIGIN CROSSINGS +20% FOUR-WEEK-ENDING-JUN-14; IRAQ SHARE 40% WEEK-OF-JUN-8	🟢 IRAQ-+20%
Jun 25 Thu (C178 carry)	IRGC Navy (Iran-state-actor)	FORMAL REJECTION IMO-OMAN SAFE-PASSAGE — "any vessel found in violation will be subject to enforcement measures" — Day-1-rhetoric-pause-no-kinetic	🔴 RHETORIC-CARRY
Jun 25 Thu (C178 carry)	Pakistan FM (Foreign Office)	"Next round of US-Iran talks set to restart next week" carries	CARRY
Jun 25 Thu (C177 carry)	Iran Parliament	RATIFICATION VOTE DAY 3 OF 3 FINAL — JUN 25 — outcome pending late-Thu	🔴 PENDING
Jun 25 Thu (C177 carry)	Mojtaba (Iran Supreme Leader)	SILENCE EXTENDS Day 4 midday → evening	🔴 DAY-4-EVENING
Jun 25 Thu (C177 carry)	Kazem Gharibabadi (Iranian deputy FM)	ATTRIBUTED IAEA-DG REJECTION carries	CARRY
Jun 25 Thu (C177 carry)	President Pezeshkian (Pakistan)	"DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES NON-NEGOTIABLE" missile-program-scope-exclusion carries	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C176 carry)	EIA	WPSR Jun 24: crude -6.088 mb; SPR OCT-1984-LOW carries	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C176 carry)	IAEA DG Rafael Grossi	PUBLICLY CONFIRMS INSPECTORS WILL VISIT IRAN carries	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C176 carry)	Goldman Sachs (Struyven)	2026 BRENT BASE CASE $85/BBL (4th upgrade); Q4 $71	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C176 carry)	JPMorgan Global Research	2026 BRENT BASELINE ~$60/BBL	CARRY
Jun 23 Tue (C173 carry)	US Senate	WAR POWERS RESOLUTION PASSED 50-48 — directs President to remove forces from Iran hostilities — 4 Republican defections (Cassidy, Murkowski, Collins, Paul); Trump "Four Republican Losers + poorly timed and meaningless"	CARRY
Jun 21 (C175 carry)	Iraqi Cabinet	APPROVED K-C RAMP 220K → 770K BPD WITHIN 2.5 MONTHS; 4.3 mb/d NATIONAL TARGET	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C174 carry)	IMO Sec-Gen Dominguez	MASS EVACUATION 11,000+ SEAFARERS DAY 2 carries	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C174 carry)	Iran Parliament-Speaker Ghalibaf	$12B FROZEN IRANIAN FUNDS RELEASE — two $6B tranches	CARRY
Jun 24 Wed (C174 carry)	President Trump	"Iran completely agreed to nuclear inspections INTO INFINITY" carries	CARRY
Jun 22 Mon (C171 carry)	Qatar Energy Minister Al-Kaabi	EXPLICIT HOSTILE-ACTION RULED OUT	CARRY
Jun 22 Mon (C171 carry)	VP Vance (Bürgenstock Day 2)	IAEA INSPECTORS RETURN CLAIM	CARRY
Jun 22 Mon (C171 carry)	President Trump (Fox News + Truth Social)	"20% OF OIL" + "NO TOLLS 60 DAYS" CODIFICATION	CARRY
Jun 22 Mon (C171 carry)	US + Iran (Bürgenstock working groups)	WORKING GROUPS FORMALIZED + $300B FUND PLEDGED	CARRY
Jun 19 (carry)	Israel + Hezbollah	CEASEFIRE-RENEWAL agreed	CARRY
Jun 19 (carry)	Lloyd's Chubb consortium	$400M consortium operational	CARRY (DAY 8 EVENING)
Jun 18 (carry)	CENTCOM	Officially lifts naval blockade	CARRY
Jun 18 (carry)	Mojtaba Khamenei	Written statement approves MoU	CARRY (DAY-4 EVENING SILENCE)
Jun 17 (carry)	Trump + Pezeshkian	PRESIDENTIAL-DIGITAL-SIGNATURE 14-point MoU	CARRY

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend	Signal	C179 Δ
Conflict day count	118 (Feb 28 baseline)	→	War continues; ceasefire Day 78	CARRY
Iran civilians killed (cumulative)	1,701+ HRANA STALE / 3,468 Foundation of Martyrs	→	Carry	CARRY
Iran displaced (cumulative)	~3.2M	→	Carry	CARRY
US KIA/wounded (cumulative)	13 / 381+	→	No new	CARRY
Israeli IDF KIA (Lebanon-leg)	4 (Jun 19)	→	No new	CARRY
Lebanese KIA (cumulative)	~3,588-3,591+ + Sohmor 4 + 27+ + 16 Sat + Jun 20 83-killed-PBS	→	Pending	CARRY
Qatar Ras Laffan casualties	13 KIA + 66 + 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING	→	Lock 11 contained	CARRY
Strait transits/day	PortWatch baseline 5; Jun 23 = 25; NBC "23 vs ~93/day"; CNBC 35M-cumulative; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED; 21M MTD-Iran + 4.8 mb/d post-deal; UAE-85%	🟢 40-SHIP + 4.8MB/D	EMPIRICAL-DEEPENS	🟢 40-SHIP
Brent crude prompt ($/bbl)	$73.43 intraday Jun 25; prev close $73.87; Wed $73.74; INTRADAY TOUCH $72.44 < $72.48 Feb-27 pre-war close	🟢🟢 FLOOR-TOUCH	Pre-war-floor-touch confirmed intraday	🟢🟢 FLOOR
Brent Aug-contract ($/bbl)	$75.47 intraday carry; Aug premium narrows	🟡 NARROWS	Mixed	🟡 NARROWS
WTI crude ($/bbl)	$69.35 intraday Jun 25; 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUB-$70 SESSION	🟢🟢 SUB-$70-4TH	Pre-war-floor breached sustained	🟢🟢 4TH-DAY
VLCC day rates	Sinokor 897 WS YTD-high; $470K-day spike-tier; Gulf VLCC ~$190K+; IRGC-rhetoric ↔ IMO-40-ship tempers	🟡 TEMPERED	Major-rate-spike	🟡 TEMPERED
War risk premium (%)	0.8-1.5% non-flagged; 2.5-5% US/UK/Israeli; LLOYD'S CHUBB CONSORTIUM DAY 8 EVENING; Rubio-GCC + IMO-40-ship + Brent-floor-touch tempers widen	🟢 TEMPERED-DEEPENS	Multi-factor positive	🟢 TEMPERED
Vessels attacked (cumulative)	~46+ since Feb 28; STOLT/HAPPY-CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" + Hatem-2-disputed	→ CREDIBILITY-EROSION	Meta-erosion	CARRY
Seafarers killed/missing	14 fatalities since Feb 28 + SETTEBELLO 3 KIA; no new C179	→	No new	CARRY
Seafarers stranded	~11,000 PER IMO — IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + AIS + LRIT mandatory	🟢🟢 40-SHIP	Operational-allocation-tier	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
Vessels stranded	~2,000; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + 35M+21M-MTD cumulative + 4.8 mb/d post-deal	🟢🟢 40-SHIP	Operational-allocation-deepens	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
IEA release (barrels committed)	400M (Mar 11); ~280M+ consumed; IEA-pause modulates	→	PAUSE-MODULATES	CARRY
US SPR release (barrels)	172M committed; ~66M drawn; DOE 17.5M since March; TOTAL CRUDE incl SPR 743.3M OCT-1984-LOW	→	Oct-1984-low	CARRY
Japan SPR release (barrels)	80M; PM Takaichi pause	→	~150 DOS	CARRY
Iraq oil exports (mb/d)	~200-230K bpd CURRENT K-C; IRAQI CABINET RAMP 220K → 770K BPD 2.5 MONTHS; 4.3 mb/d NATIONAL TARGET; Iraq-Hormuz +20% four-week + share 40%	🟢 +20%	Major-ramp + share-rising	🟢 +20%
Escort timeline	READY-TO-DEPLOY UK-FR + 40-partner + RFA + G7; JMIC; OMAN-NAVY + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED operational	🟢🟢 40-SHIP	Day-2-late-with-empirical-allocation	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
E-W pipeline utilization (mb/d)	~5.0 / 7.0 cap	→	Yanbu bottleneck	CARRY
Total bypass capacity (mb/d)	~7-8 utilization + Iraq Basra-Haditha (planned 2.5) + Basra-Ceyhan (proposed) + UAE 85%-pre-war + Iraq-K-C-770K-Aug-Sep	→	Multi-source recovery	CARRY
Supply gap (GAP: X mb/d)	GAP: 5-7 mb/d closing structurally + 35M+21M-MTD + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP + UAE-85% + IRAQ-K-C-770K + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls; IRGC-rhetoric ↔ IMO-40-ship tempers	🟢 NARROWS-DEEPENS	GAP-narrowing-deepens	🟢 NARROWS
India reserve days	78 crude + ~5 SPR	→	DISHA + Iran-30M + IMO-40-ship + Brent-floor + Iraq-K-C supports	CARRY
China reserve days	~108	→	Bilateral + Iran-30M + 21M-MTD	CARRY
Ships trapped in Gulf	~2,000; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED + 35M+21M-MTD	🟢🟢 40-SHIP	Phased-exit-empirical-allocation	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
Mine threat level	CRITICAL (JMIC); IMO-Oman-corridor SOUTH-of-TSS + 40-SHIP-first-group operational	🟢 40-SHIP	IMO-corridor-Day-2-late	🟢 40-SHIP
IRGC posture	FORMAL RE-CLOSURE DAY 7 PERSISTS + IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Day-1-carry; rhetoric-pause-no-kinetic ~6h post-rejection	🔴 RHETORIC-CARRY	Rhetoric-tier-pause	🔴 RHETORIC
P&I insurance status	NO INDIVIDUAL Gulf re-entry Day 78; LLOYD'S CHUBB-LED CONSORTIUM DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL — $400M; CHUBB CEO HOUR-TO-HOUR; 4/4 conditions	→	Day 8 evening	🟢 DAY 8 EVENING
Qatar LNG status	Force majeure mid-June overdue 13+ days; RAS LAFFAN BARZAN EXPORTS UNAFFECTED; "50% within month + 80% within 2 months" post-Hormuz framework	→	Lock-11 contained	CARRY
Dual chokepoint status	HOUTHI MULTI-VESSEL-WAVE + HATEM-2-DISPUTED + STOLT/HAPPY-CONDOR "ERRONEOUS"; NO FRESH KINETIC C178→C179 ~3-6H	🟢 NO-FRESH	LOCK-9 erosion	🟢 NO-FRESH
Ceasefire status (Polymarket)	CEASEFIRE BY JUN 30: 91% YES; PERMANENT PEACE BY OCT-31: 99% YES; HORMUZ NORMALIZE BY END-JUN: 5% YES STICKY-LOW; JUL-31 47% YES; DEC-31 87% YES; IRAN-UNRESTRICTED-SHIPPING-BY-JUN-30 1% YES	🔴 5%-STICKY	Near-term-friction sticky	🔴 5%-STICKY
Diplomatic channels	8-tier mediator + 60-DAY ROADMAP + HORMUZ-COMM + LEBANON-DECONFLICTION-CELL + WORKING-GROUPS PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + $300B + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED + PEZESHKIAN-CONCLUDED + Trump-20%-oil + IMO-40-SHIP + US+LEBANON+IRAN CELL + RUBIO-BAHRAIN-GCC-WRAPS-NO-TOLLS-FREEDOM-OF-NAV-CODIFIED + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT + BAHRAIN-FM-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA NEW + BRENT-FLOOR-TOUCH + WTI-SUB-$70-4TH-DAY + 35M+21M-MTD + EIA-WPSR + IAEA-DG + IRAQ-K-C-770K; IRGC-IMO-rejection-carry + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY + MOJTABA-DAY-4-EVENING + $12B-"SPIN" + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + GHARIBABADI + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NON-NEGOTIABLE	↑↑↑↑	Multi-axis substance-deepens	🟢🟢 RUBIO + GCC + IMO-40
SE Asia crisis status	Philippines Jun 30 — 4 DAYS; Pakistan PEZESHKIAN-CONCLUDED + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES	→	Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Brent-floor-touch eases	🟢 EASES
Asian equities post-signature	Records carry; Asia Thu close firmer on Brent-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70 + 35M+21M-MTD + Rubio-GCC	🟢 FIRMS	Records hold-firmer	🟢 FIRMS
US futures/intraday	US Thursday opens firmer on Brent-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70 + 35M+21M-MTD + IAEA-DG + IMO-40-ship + Iraq-K-C + 5th-round-closed + Pakistan-FM + Rubio-GCC	🟢 FIRMS	Firms-on-floor-touch	🟢 FIRMS
EIA refinery utilization	96.1% (-0.6 pp WoW) per EIA-WPSR Jun 24	→	Marginal-tier dip	CARRY
Bürgenstock ceremony	EMPIRICALLY ACTUALIZED JUN 19	→	Bürgenstock-empirical	CARRY
Bürgenstock TALKS	TECHNICAL — PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK	→	Substance-pause-reconfirmed	CARRY
Trump "may take over Strait"	CARRIES	→	Novel doctrine-tier	CARRY
Trump "20% of oil" + tolls	FULL DETAIL carries	→	Inflammatory + 20%-oil	CARRY
Trump Truth Social "NO TOLLS 60-DAYS"	CODIFICATION carries; Rubio-GCC "zero support for tolls" + Oman "no tolls" RE-CODIFY MULTILATERALLY	→ 🟢 RE-CODIFIED	Multilateral re-codification	🟢🟢 RE-CODIFIED
Ghalibaf doctrinal + leverage	DOCTRINAL-ESCALATION carries	→	Doctrinal-counter	CARRY
Ghalibaf $12B claim	PARLIAMENT-SPEAKER-CLAIM + US-OFFICIAL "SPIN"-FRAMING	🟡 "SPIN"	Bilateral-friction	CARRY
Baqaei FM-tier IAEA-walkback	"NO PROTOCOL" + NPT-PRESERVED carries	🔴 PUBLIC-DISPUTE	Public friction	CARRY
Iran FM-Ministry "operating normally" — INTRA-STATE	STRUCTURAL-FEATURE carries; Iran-Oman joint committee per IRNA Jun 23 introduces SECOND PARALLEL-STATE-FRAMEWORK NEW	🔴 NEW-PARALLEL	Intra-state architecture deepens	🔴 NEW-PARALLEL
Sohmor (Bekaa) NNA update	4 KIA + 1 WOUNDED	→	Lebanon-leg NNA	CARRY
Bekaa-Douris IDF strikes	CONTINUE despite ceasefire-renewal	→	Lebanon-leg degradation	CARRY
Mojtaba 11 conditions Nabavian leak	STATE-TV LEAK	→	Supreme-Leader-tier	CARRY
Polymarket Hormuz-normalize-Jun-30	5% YES STICKY-LOW; $34.7M traded; resolves Jun 29 — 4 DAYS; resolves on IMF Portwatch 7-day MA ≥60 transits	🔴 5%-STICKY	Near-term-consensus-collapse-sticky	🔴 5%-STICKY
Polymarket Hormuz-normalize-Jul-31	~47% YES carries (TBC)	→	Q3 window	CARRY
Polymarket Hormuz-normalize-Dec-31	~87% YES carries (TBC)	→	EOY confidence	CARRY
Polymarket Iran-unrestricted-shipping-Jun-30	1% YES carries	→	Shipping-window	CARRY
Mojtaba Khamenei written approval	JUN 18 WRITTEN STATEMENT; Day 4 MIDDAY → EVENING SILENCE extends	→	Silence-watch-deepens	🔴 DAY-4-EVENING
Iran Parliament ratification	VOTE DAY 3 OF 3 FINAL — JUN 25 — outcome PENDING late-Thu UTC	🔴 PENDING	Sovereign-critical	🔴 PENDING
CENTCOM blockade status	OFFICIALLY LIFTED JUN 18; Day 7 of 60; 35M+21M-MTD-CUMULATIVE + 4.8 MB/D POST-DEAL	→	Blockade-lifted + barrel-exit-deepens	🟢 DEEPENS
DISHA Dahej arrival	EMPIRICAL ARRIVAL	→	India-anchor	CARRY
3 Saudi VLCCs AIS-uplift	JUN 19 CROSS HORMUZ	→	Saudi-VLCC-empirical	CARRY
UANI Hormuz transit Jun 17	26 VESSELS	→	UANI-baseline	CARRY
Windward Persian Gulf Jun 17	871 VESSELS + 18 TRANSITS	→	Windward-structural	CARRY
Windward Jun 22 dark fleet global	~1,100 globally	→	Structural-legitimization	CARRY
Iran 30M-barrels-shipped-week (Bloomberg)	30M past week; 21M MTD-June Iran-flag tankers per Hellenic Shipping; 4.8 mb/d Hormuz post-deal	→ 🟢 21M+4.8	Structural-flow-deepens	🟢 21M+4.8
UAE export recovery (IEA)	~85% pre-war	→ 85%	Major-Gulf-empirical	CARRY
Iraq K-C ramp plan	220K → 770K BPD 2.5 months; Hormuz-share +20% four-week-ending Jun 14 + 40% share week-of-Jun-8 per Breakwave	→ 🟢 +20%	Bypass-ramp + share-rising	🟢 +20%
Lloyd's Chubb consortium	DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL HOLDS — $400M; CHUBB CEO "hour-to-hour"; IRGC-rejection-carry + Polymarket-5%-sticky + Brent-floor + IMO-40-ship + Iran-Parliament-Day-3 + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable stress compound	→	Day 8 evening	🟢 DAY 8 EVENING
JMIC Oman-coastline route-advisory	OPERATIONAL; Oman-NHO + Navy Day-2-late operational; IMO 40-SHIP FIRST GROUP DESIGNATED	🟢 40-SHIP	JMIC + IMO convergence deepens	🟢 40-SHIP
Kuwait production increase	JUN 19 INCREASES PRODUCTION	→	Kuwait-production	CARRY
US sanctions waiver	60-day Iran-oil-sales waiver Treasury-tier; Aug 21 expiry	→	Treasury-operational	CARRY
60-day final-deal clock	STARTED JUN 18 — AUG 18 DEADLINE; Day 7 of 60	→	Day 7	CARRY
IAEA inspectors return	DG GROSSI PUBLICLY CONFIRMS WILL VISIT — institutional-anchor with MoU; Gharibabadi attributed-rejection	→	Institutional-anchor + Iran-counter	CARRY
Ras Laffan attribution	RESOLVED-MAX; EXPORTS UNAFFECTED; 54 INJURED + 18 MISSING; "Unlikely fully online before end-August" per The National	→	Lock 11 contained	CARRY
Lebanon deconfliction cell	LEBANON-CONDITIONAL; TRUMP STUDIES US+LEBANON+IRAN; 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH	↑	Direct-bilateral + cell-study	🟡 DAY-3-CLOSED
5th-round Lebanon-Israel direct talks	DAY 3 WASHINGTON-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH JUN 25; LEITER + AOUN + ISRAELI-SYMBOLIC-WITHDRAWAL + CELL-STUDY	🟡 DAY-3-CLOSED	Direct-bilateral + symbolic-framing	🟡 DAY-3-CLOSED
IMO-Oman 40-ship first transit group	DESIGNATED — 40 ships can proceed to holding area and begin transits per Maritime Executive; AIS + LRIT mandatory	🟢🟢 40-SHIP	Lock-4 discharge-empirical-allocation	🟢🟢 40-SHIP
Iran-Oman joint transit committee	IRNA JUN 23 carry surfaces — Iran and Oman opened talks for joint Hormuz transit framework + possible passage fees via joint committee	🟡 PARALLEL-NEW	Parallel-architecture vs IMO-Oman	🟡 PARALLEL-NEW
Rubio GCC Bahrain ministerial outcome	"ZERO SUPPORT" FOR TOLLS + FREEDOM-OF-NAVIGATION-INSISTS + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT-STRATEGIC-PARTNERSHIP + BAHRAIN-FM-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR + OMAN-"NO-TRANSIT-TOLLS" CODIFIED MULTILATERALLY	🟢🟢 NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED	US-Sec-State-tier multilateral backing	🟢🟢 RUBIO-WRAPS
Pakistan FM Jun 25 reconfirms Bürgenstock resume next week	CARRY	🟢 RECONFIRMS	Substance-pause-reconfirmed	CARRY
Senate war powers resolution Jun 23 50-48 + Trump rebuke	PASSED 50-48 — first to clear both chambers; 4 Republican defections; Trump "Four Republican Losers + meaningless"; carries	🟡 LEGISLATIVE	US-Congress-tier-rebuke	CARRY
Iran-flag 21M-MTD-June + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz post-deal (Hellenic)	NEW — Iran-flag tankers 21M MTD-June; 4.8 mb/d Hormuz post-deal flow	🟢🟢 21M+4.8	MTD-flow-cumulative	🟢🟢 NEW
Iraq Hormuz +20% four-week / 40% share (Breakwave)	NEW — Iraq-Hormuz crossings +20% four-week-ending Jun 14 + Iraq-share 40% week-of-Jun-8	🟢 +20%	Iraq-share-rising	🟢 NEW

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

BRENT INTRADAY $72.44 — AT/BELOW FEB-27 PRE-WAR CLOSE $72.48 — MAJOR Lock 1 LOOSENING-DECISIVE PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH — First-ever-touch of pre-war-floor since Feb 28 war start per Hellenic Shipping + Trading Economics. Intraday $73.43 (prev close $73.87); Wed Jun 24 close $73.74.

WTI $69.35 INTRADAY — 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUB-$70 SESSION per Trading Economics — "nearly wiped out all gains since outbreak of Middle East conflict."

RUBIO WRAPS UP GULF TOUR JUN 25 IN BAHRAIN — "ZERO SUPPORT FOR TOLLS" + INSISTS FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION per RFE/RL + Yahoo + Outlook India + USNews + Algemeiner + Sunday Guardian + News of Bahrain. First US-Sec-State post-MoU multilateral-tier GCC backing of MoU framework + transit-toll-rejection codified.

GCC-US JOINT MINISTERIAL STATEMENT per Aawsat — "stress commitment to strengthening strategic partnership + intensifying coordination + regional security." Multilateral-institutional-tier backing codified at joint-statement-tier.

BAHRAIN FM AL ZAYANI CHAIRED GCC + WELCOMED OMAN CORRIDOR + OMAN "NO TRANSIT TOLLS" per RFE/RL. GCC-multilateral-tier endorsement of IMO-Oman binational architecture counters IRGC-rejection.

IMO 40-SHIP FIRST TRANSIT GROUP DESIGNATED per Maritime Executive — first allocated transit days; AIS + LRIT mandatory. Operational-empirical movement from rhetoric to allocation despite IRGC-formal-rejection.

IRGC ENFORCEMENT-RHETORIC STAYS RHETORIC-TIER ~6h post-formal-rejection — no kinetic-enforcement-event; first-empirical-transit kinetic-test pending critical 0-24h.

POLYMARKET JUN-30 HOLDS AT 5% YES STICKY-LOW — $34.7M traded; 4 days to Jun-29 resolution; resolves on IMF Portwatch 7-day MA ≥60 transits.

IRAN-OMAN JOINT TRANSIT COMMITTEE — IRNA JUN 23 CARRY SURFACES per Hellenic Shipping — Iran-Oman bilateral framework parallels IMO-Oman binational architecture. Potential reconciliation OR competing-architecture-tension.

IRAN MTD-JUNE: 21M BARRELS Iran-flag tankers + 4.8 MB/D HORMUZ POST-DEAL per Hellenic Shipping + Bloomberg/CNBC — structural-discharge-empirical MTD-cumulative-tier deepens.

MOJTABA-SILENCE EXTENDS DAY 4 MIDDAY → DAY 4 EVENING — no Supreme-Leader-tier statement post-Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Bahrain-FM-welcomes-Oman-corridor.

LEBANON 5TH ROUND DAY 3 CLOSED — NO BREAKTHROUGH per Wikipedia + Daily Beirut — focus on "first details of Israeli withdrawal designated areas"; Day-1 "more regression than steps forward"; Leiter "train wreck" + "U.S.-Iran MoU has given Tehran undue influence."

IRAQ HORMUZ-ORIGIN CROSSINGS +20% FOUR-WEEK-ENDING JUN 14 + IRAQ-SHARE 40% WEEK-OF-JUN-8 per Breakwave Advisors.

NO FRESH KINETIC EVENT C178→C179 ~3-6H — no new IRGC strike, no new Houthi confirmed, no new Lebanon-Bekaa, no new Qatar/Saudi/UAE.

(b) Structural Locks Status

Lock 1 (Price): LOOSENING-DECISIVE-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH-INTRADAY-CONFIRMED — Brent intraday $72.44 at/below Feb-27 pre-war $72.48; WTI $69.35 4th-consecutive sub-$70. Goldman $85 pressure-amplified vs JPM $60. Aug-contract $75.47 narrows.

Lock 2 (Supply): LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS — 35M-bbl-cumulative + 21M-MTD-Iran + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz post-deal + Iraq-K-C-770K-ramp + Iraq-+20%-four-week + UAE-85% + IMO-40-ship-first-group + Iran-30M-week + EIA-WPSR-draws. IRGC-rejection-rhetoric-pause-tier sustains, no kinetic.

Lock 3 (Insurance): LOOSENING-MAJOR DAY 8 EVENING OPERATIONAL HOLDS — Lloyd's Chubb consortium Day 8 evening holds; $400M; 4/4 conditions; IMO-40-ship + Rubio-GCC-no-tolls + Brent-floor + Bahrain-FM-welcomes-Oman tempers IRGC-rejection-rhetoric-pressure; consortium-suspension-vector elevated but not triggered.

Lock 4 (Labor): STRUCTURAL DISCHARGE OPERATIONAL-ALLOCATION-EMPIRICAL-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED — IMO 40-ship first transit group designated with allocated transit days + AIS + LRIT mandatory. Movement from rhetoric-readiness to operational-empirical-allocation. IRGC-formal-rejection-rhetoric-pause sustains; first-empirical-transit kinetic-test critical 0-24h.

Lock 5 (Duration): HOLDING-DEEPENING-SUBSTANCE + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-CRITICAL + 60-DAY-DAY-7 + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES-NARROWS-SCOPE — Multi-axis substance-pillar deepens via GCC-multilateral codification.

Lock 6 (Nuclear): HOLDING-WITH-IAEA-DG-INSTITUTIONAL-ANCHOR + RUBIO-GCC-SUBSTANCE + IRGC-FM-MINISTRY-STRUCTURAL-FEATURE + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-PARALLEL-EMERGES — IAEA DG carries; Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable preserves nuclear pathway; Iran-Oman joint-committee + IRGC-IMO-formal-rejection further crystallize FM-vs-IRGC + Iran-Oman-bilateral-vs-IMO-Oman-binational structural-features.

Lock 7 (Geographic): HOLDING-DEGRADATION + 5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + RUBIO-GCC-SUBSTANCE-CODIFIED + GCC-JOINT-STATEMENT + NO-FRESH-KINETIC — Lebanon-leg ceasefire-renewal HOLDS at degradation; 5th-round Day-3 closed without operational breakthrough; Iran-Israel 25th window; Yemen-leg multi-vessel-wave-carry + Houthi-credibility-erosion + no-fresh-kinetic-3-6h; Qatar Ras Laffan contained.

Lock 8 (Capability): LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS — IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS + BAHRAIN-FM-OMAN-CORRIDOR-WELCOMES — UK-FR 40-partner + RFA Lyme Bay; JMIC OMAN-COASTLINE; G7; CENTCOM Sat 55; 21M-MTD-Iran + Iraq-K-C-220K-current-+20% + UAE-85% + 35M-cumulative + 4.8 mb/d post-deal; IMO + Oman binational corridor first-empirical-group-designated. IRGC-rhetoric-pause sustains discharge-pathway.

Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint): CREDIBILITY-EROSION + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-3-6H — Houthi STOLT/HAPPY-CONDOR "ERRONEOUS" + Hatem-2-disputed + MSC-SARAH-V-no-damage; no fresh kinetic C178→C179 ~3-6h.

Lock 10 (Leadership): HOLDING-DEGRADED-WITH-RUBIO-GCC-MULTILATERAL-ANCHOR + IMO-40-SHIP-DESIGNATED + MOJTABA-DAY-4-EVENING + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + IAEA-DG + GHARIBABADI + PEZESHKIAN-MISSILES + PAKISTAN-FM-RECONFIRMS + IRGC-IMO-REJECTION-CARRY + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-PARALLEL + $12B-"SPIN" + SENATE-WAR-POWERS-RESOLUTION-CARRY — Multi-actor institutional architecture deepens; Mojtaba-silence extends Day 4 evening; Iran-Parliament Day-3 final pending. Rubio-GCC-multilateral-codification + GCC-joint-statement + Bahrain-FM-welcomes-Oman-corridor + Oman-"no-tolls"-codified introduce major US-GCC-multilateral-institutional-anchor counter-pressure to IRGC-rejection at Iran-state-actor-tier.

Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): HOLDING-AT-PRIOR-DAMAGE-BASELINE + UAE-85% + IRAQ-K-C-770K-RAMP-PRE-POSITIONS + IRAQ-HORMUZ-+20%-FOUR-WEEK — Ras-Laffan attribution-resolved + Qatar LNG EXPORTS UNAFFECTED + Qatar 50% within month + 80% within 2 months post-Hormuz-restoration framework; no fresh Lock-11 incidents C179.

(c) Critical Watch

0-6h:

Iran-Parliament Day-3-final vote outcome — late Thu UTC
IRGC-IMO-Oman first-empirical-Southern-transit kinetic-test — rhetoric vs kinetic-event on IMO-40-ship-first-group transit
Mojtaba-Day-4-night-window resolution
Polymarket Jun-30 sub-5% potential vs partial-recovery
Brent Thu close vs $72.48 pre-war floor formal-breach
WTI test $68 vs hold $70 intraday Thu close
Lloyd's Chubb Day-8-evening transition
Houthi multi-vessel-wave continuation vs de-escalation overnight
GCC-multilateral readout substance details (full ministerial communique)
IRAN-OMAN joint committee substance details — fee schedule, governance, IMO-reconciliation

0-72h:

Iran-Parliament-vote outcome materialization Jun 25-26 — rejection vs conditional vs unconditional
IMO-40-ship first-group EMPIRICAL FIRST TRANSIT execution — no-incident vs kinetic-fail
First individual P&I club test consortium-tier viability post-IRGC-rejection-rhetoric-pause-sustained
Bürgenstock-resume-early-next-week (Mon-Tue Jun 29-30) — confirmation/breakdown
IRGC kinetic-enforcement test vs rhetoric-tier-sustains
Qatar LNG force majeure formal lift — overdue 13+ days
Brent prompt test $71 floor vs hold $73 Thu close → Fri
Lebanon-leg Bekaa-Beirut spillover OR pilot-zone-progress
IMO-Oman-corridor first-week empirical throughput despite IRGC-rejection
Polymarket Jun-30 resolution Jun 29 — 4 days to settlement at 5% YES
Goldman base-case revision — Brent-floor-touch + WTI-4th-day-sub-$70 pressure
Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable Israeli-Cabinet response
GCC-multilateral substance details — backing scope, conditions, ongoing coordination
Iran-Oman joint-committee architecture vs IMO-Oman reconciliation

6-10 week:

Iran-Parliament ratification aftermath
IRGC mine-removal confirmation — operational-tier requirement
Aug 18 60-day-final-deal deadline — Day 7 / 53 days remaining
IAEA inspector operational deployment — substance-validation
First individual P&I club re-entry beyond consortium-tier
Qatar LNG full-restart timeline — pre-end-August target
UK political-tier post-Starmer-resignation
IMO-Oman-corridor convergence to pre-war norm vs IRGC-rejection-durable
Iran-FM-vs-IRGC + Iran-Oman-bilateral-vs-IMO-Oman structural-features
US-Iran $12B "spin" resolution
Iraq K-C contract Jul 27 expiry — extension; 770K-ramp Aug-Sep critical
Pezeshkian-missile-non-negotiable persistence vs Bürgenstock-scope-renegotiation
GCC multilateral-backing durability vs conditions-attachment

(d) Net Assessment

C179 lands in a BRENT-PRE-WAR-FLOOR-TOUCH-INTRADAY + WTI-SUB-$70-4TH-DAY + RUBIO-GCC-NO-TOLLS-CODIFIED + GCC-MULTILATERAL-JOINT-STATEMENT + BAHRAIN-FM-WELCOMES-OMAN-CORRIDOR + OMAN-NO-TRANSIT-TOLLS + IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED + IRGC-RHETORIC-NO-KINETIC + POLYMARKET-5%-STICKY + IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-COMMITTEE-IRNA + 21M-MTD-IRAN + 4.8MB/D-HORMUZ-POST-DEAL + IRAQ-+20%-FOUR-WEEK + MOJTABA-DAY-4-EVENING + LEBANON-5TH-ROUND-DAY-3-CLOSED-NO-BREAKTHROUGH + IRAN-PARLIAMENT-DAY-3-FINAL-PENDING + SENATE-WAR-POWERS-CARRY + NO-FRESH-KINETIC-3-6H cycle — fourteen material signals deepen the structural-discharge picture: (1) Brent intraday $72.44 — first-ever-touch of Feb-27 pre-war close $72.48 since Feb 28 war start; (2) WTI $69.35 4th-consecutive sub-$70 session; (3) Rubio wraps GCC tour with "zero support for tolls" + freedom-of-navigation insists; (4) GCC-US joint ministerial statement codifies multilateral strategic-partnership; (5) Bahrain FM Al Zayani welcomes Oman corridor + Oman "no transit tolls" codified; (6) IMO 40-ship first transit group designated — first operational-empirical allocation; (7) IRGC enforcement-rhetoric stays rhetoric-tier ~6h post-formal-rejection; (8) Polymarket Jun-30 holds 5%-sticky; (9) Iran-Oman joint transit committee per IRNA Jun 23 surfaces — parallel architecture; (10) Iran-flag 21M-MTD-June + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz post-deal; (11) Mojtaba-silence extends Day 4 midday → evening; (12) Lebanon 5th-round Day-3 closed without breakthrough; (13) Iraq Hormuz-share +20% four-week / 40% week; (14) No fresh kinetic event C178→C179 ~3-6h.

The C178 first-major-Iran-state-actor-tier-counter-pressure via IRGC-Navy-formal-rejection-IMO-Oman-Southern-route is met in C179 by a SUITE OF MULTILATERAL-INSTITUTIONAL-TIER COUNTER-COUNTER-PRESSURES: (a) Rubio-GCC-tour-wrap codifies "zero support for tolls" + freedom-of-navigation at US-Sec-State-tier; (b) GCC-multilateral joint statement codifies strategic-partnership + regional-security at GCC-multilateral-tier; (c) Bahrain FM chairs GCC + welcomes Oman corridor; (d) Oman codifies "no transit tolls" at GCC-meeting-tier; (e) IMO 40-ship first transit group designated at operational-empirical-allocation-tier. Lock 1 (Price) sustains LOOSENING-DECISIVE at intraday-pre-war-floor-touch; Lock 2 (Supply) LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS via 21M-MTD + 4.8 mb/d + Iraq-+20%; Lock 3 (Insurance) LOOSENING-MAJOR Day 8 evening operational holds; Lock 4 (Labor) STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE OPERATIONAL-ALLOCATION-EMPIRICAL via IMO-40-SHIP-FIRST-GROUP-DESIGNATED; Lock 5 (Duration) HOLDS-DEEPENING via Rubio-GCC-codification + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms; Lock 6 (Nuclear) HOLDING-WITH-IAEA-DG-ANCHOR + Iran-Oman + IRGC-IMO-rejection further crystallize parallel structural-features; Lock 7 (Geographic) HOLDS-DEGRADATION + 5th-round-Day-3-closed-no-breakthrough + GCC-substance + no-fresh-kinetic; Lock 8 (Capability) LOOSENING-MAJOR-DEEPENS via IMO-40-ship + Rubio-GCC + 4.8 mb/d empirical; Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint) CREDIBILITY-EROSION + no-fresh-kinetic; Lock 10 (Leadership) HOLDS-DEGRADED + Rubio-GCC-multilateral-anchor + IMO-40-ship + Mojtaba-Day-4-evening + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final-pending + IRGC-rhetoric-no-kinetic + Iran-Oman parallel; Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure) HOLDS-AT-PRIOR-DAMAGE-BASELINE + UAE-85% + Iraq-K-C-770K + Iraq-+20%.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: The critical 0-6h inflection cluster centers on (a) Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final-vote outcome, (b) IRGC-IMO-Oman-rejection enforcement-trajectory (rhetoric-pause vs kinetic-event on IMO-40-ship first-group transit), (c) Mojtaba-Day-4-night-window resolution, (d) Polymarket Jun-30 sub-5% potential breach, (e) Brent Thu close vs $72.48 pre-war floor formal-breach, (f) Lloyd's Day-8-evening transition, (g) GCC-multilateral readout substance, (h) Iran-Oman joint-committee substance. If (a) IRGC-rhetoric-pause continues without kinetic-enforcement, (b) Iran-Parliament-vote signals non-rejection or conditional-approval, (c) Mojtaba-Day-4-night doesn't overtly reject, (d) IMO-40-ship first transit succeeds no-kinetic-incident, (e) Brent closes Thu at $73.50 or below, (f) Houthi-overnight-quiescent, (g) Lloyd's-consortium sustains Day 8 → Day 9, (h) GCC-multilateral readout confirms substantive backing, base-case sustains $66-73 Brent prompt and deal-architecture-tier holds toward Aug 18 deadline with C179 structural-discharge-tier confirmation through Brent-pre-war-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + Rubio-GCC-multilateral-codified + IMO-40-ship-empirical-allocation septuple-pillar. If IRGC kinetic-enforcement on IMO-40-ship transit OR Iran-Parliament overtly rejects OR Mojtaba overtly rejects Day-4-night OR 5th-round-Lebanon collapses overnight OR Houthi-fresh-kinetic OR Lloyd's consortium suspends OR Bürgenstock-next-week-no-resume OR Polymarket Jun-29 resolves NO with no-recovery, all locks shift toward partial-retrace scenarios in 0-72h with Brent prompt rebound to $74-80+ pre-positioning.

Key uncertainty: C179 confirms the structural-discharge-narrative DEEPENING via Brent-prompt-pre-war-floor-touch + Rubio-GCC-multilateral-anchor + IMO-40-ship-empirical-allocation triple-validation despite IRGC-rejection-rhetoric-carry + Polymarket-5%-sticky compound friction. The CRITICAL INFLECTION remains the gap between IRGC-enforcement-rhetoric and IRGC-enforcement-event — if IRGC kinetic-enforcement materializes on IMO-40-ship first-group-transit in next 0-24h, all C179 multilateral-institutional-tier counter-pressures face simultaneous test. Conversely, if IRGC-rhetoric-pause continues + IMO-40-ship-first-transit succeeds + Iran-Parliament-Day-3-final non-rejection + Mojtaba-Day-4-night non-overt-rejection + Brent-Thu-close below-$72.48 + GCC-multilateral substantive-backing, C179 STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE-DEEPENING-CONFIRMED composition consolidates at higher-confidence baseline with Iran-state-actor-rhetorical-rejection priced-in as background-tier friction.

The C179 picture: structural-discharge-narrative deepens via Brent-pre-war-floor-touch + Rubio-GCC-multilateral-codification + IMO-40-ship-first-empirical-allocation triple-pillar with IRGC-rejection sustained as rhetoric-only background-friction vector through ~6h post-formal-rejection. Brent-prompt-floor-touch + WTI-sub-$70-4th-day + Lloyd's-Day-8-evening + IMO-40-ship-designated + 35M+21M-MTD + 4.8 mb/d post-deal + Pakistan-FM-reconfirms + Rubio-GCC-codified sustain higher-tier baseline-discharge-architecture against IRGC-rejection + Polymarket-5%-sticky near-term-friction.

🜂✧⟁⌘Φ~∞

Sources: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (Oil falls as more supply flows through Hormuz; Brent crude below $77/bbl; Iran 30M-week + 21M-MTD-June + 4.8 mb/d Hormuz post-deal), Trading Economics (Brent + WTI Jun 25 intraday; 4th consecutive sub-$70 session), Investing.com (Brent prompt $73.43 intraday Jun 25 / prev close $73.87; Brent Aug-contract $75.47 / prev close $76.80; WTI $69.13 intraday previous read), CME (Brent Last-Day-Financ Jul-01-settle $77.08), CNBC (35M barrels exited Hormuz since Iran deal Jun 18-24), Bloomberg (Iran 30M barrels past week), RFE/RL (Rubio Wraps Up Gulf Tour With Message To Reassure Regional Allies), Yahoo (Rubio wraps up Gulf tour as allies share concerns over Iran peace accord), Outlook India (Rubio Gulf Visit to Bahrain Iran Peace Talks), USNews (Rubio visits Bahrain seeking Gulf backing for Iran deal), Algemeiner (Rubio Wraps Up Gulf Tour), Sunday Guardian (US-Israel-Iran War Latest News Rubio Holds GCC Talks Bahrain), News of Bahrain (Bahrain hosts Rubio for key GCC-US ministerial talks), Aawsat (GCC and US Stress Commitment to Strategic Partnership Regional Security; Saudi FM in Bahrain GCC-US ministerial), Polymarket (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal end-June 5% YES; $34,699,787 traded; resolves Jun 29; IMF Portwatch 7-day MA ≥60 transits), Wikipedia (2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis; 2026 Israel-Lebanon peace talks; Red Sea crisis; Islamabad Memorandum; Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline; Houthi attacks on commercial vessels), Maritime Executive (IMO 40-ship first transit group designated; IRGC Navy Rejects IMO Safe-Passage Plan; Houthis Announce End Red Sea Shipping Attacks), Lloyd's List (IRGC rejects alternative Hormuz evacuation routes; VLCC second major spike), Tribune India + ANI (IRGC warns vessels against transiting Strait of Hormuz; IRGC Navy rejects new Hormuz route + warns enforcement), Al Jazeera (IRGC warns against new Hormuz route Day 118; Rubio heads to Middle East address Iran MoU Hormuz; US Senate approves Iran war powers; What Israeli and Lebanese officials are saying before Washington talks; US-Iran trade; Lebanon discusses deconfliction; US announces new round Israel-Lebanon talks), The Hill (Iran hardliners oppose Trump MOU), JINSA (Uncertifiable Illegal Unstoppable Congress Iran MOU), Houseofsaud.com (Khamenei Authorized MOU Pre-Built Exit; Iran Names Parliament Speaker Sign Geneva MOU), Tribune (Mojtaba Khamenei future negotiations), Business Standard (Mojtaba Khamenei Trump leverage; Strait Hormuz closed all vessels IRGC), Tasnim News Agency (IRGC Navy: Hormuz Transit Requires Coordination), OpsCon Intelligence (Hormuz 55 ships transit same day Iran declares strait closed), Hormuz Strait Monitor (Crisis Timeline Strait Hormuz War 2026; Open Closed Contested), Straits.live (Strait Hormuz Closed Day 116 Live Tracker), Global Energy Flow (Is Strait Hormuz Open Live Status), Insurance Business + Reinsurance News + Insurance Journal + Lloyd's of London + CityAM + OilPrice (Lloyd's Chubb war risk consortium $400M Jun 19; LMA safety concerns), LMA + Strauss Center + Howden Re + Discovery Alert (insurance market analysis), gCaptain (Sinokor 897 Worldscale Points YTD high; US Hormuz Security Advisory), SAFETY4SEA (VLCC insurance jumps freight rates escalate), Lloyd's List (Crude tanker rates unchartered territory VLCC index $420K), OilPrice (Tanker Frenzy VLCC Earnings near $470K), Breakwave Advisors (Iraq's export crisis Hormuz pipeline uncertainty + Iraq Hormuz +20% four-week + 40% share), Energy Intelligence (Hormuz Scare Tanker Flexibility), Breakbulk News (VLCC rates shatter all-time records), MARAD (2026-006 Red Sea Bab el Mandeb Houthi Attacks; 2026-004 Persian Gulf Strait Hormuz Iranian attacks), UKMTO (Recent Incidents 2026 advisories), JMIC (Maritime advisory note CRITICAL), Skuld + International Crisis Group (Gulf maritime security update; State of Strait Hormuz Role Middle East War), EIA (Weekly Petroleum Status Report Jun 24; SPR data; DOE 17.5M barrels since March; Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2026; Spot Prices Crude Oil; Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint), Dallas Fed (Oil and gas expansion 2026), Lite Finance (Oil price prediction), CME Group (Brent Crude Oil Quotes), CSIS (United States Iran Announce Deal), Britannica (Hormuz oil chokepoint; 2026 Iran war), CBS News (live updates Iran-US war talks suspended), CNN (Strait Hormuz evacuation plans Trump nuclear inspections; Negotiations with Iran after Trump threat disrupts talks Jun 21), Times of Israel (Trump June 23 deal critic education; Oman announces temporary maritime corridor Hormuz traffic), STL News (US-Iran Bürgenstock Summit Concludes 60-Day Peace Roadmap Maritime Safeguards), NBC News (US-Iran talks war Vance Trump Hormuz Lebanon Switzerland foundation; Senate rebukes Trump Iran war powers; Israel Hezbollah ceasefire intensified fighting), Swissinfo (Iran-US Bürgenstock summit officially underway), RFE/RL (Analysis Bürgenstock ceasefire Vance Witkoff Kushner Araqchi), CNBC (Strait Hormuz Persian Gulf ship tanker evacuation; oil tanker traffic Frontline; US-Iran begin peace talks Jun 11), Maritime-executive + UN News + SAFETY4SEA + Riviera + TWZ + Hellenic Shipping (IMO Oman phased evacuation 11,000 seafarers + 40-ship first transit group designated), Iraqi News + IndexBox + Shafaq (Iraq Cabinet K-C ramp 220K → 770K BPD; 4.3 mb/d national target), TRT World + Middle East Eye + The National (Iraq resumes Kirkuk oil exports via Ceyhan), AGBI (Two months left Iraq Turkey pipeline deal), QatarEnergy (Ras Laffan Barzan incident detail), Rigzone (Qatar Ras Laffan blast LNG exports), Gasworld + Bloomberg (QatarEnergy force majeure mid-June; Tankers Returns LNG Exports), Energy News Beat (Qatar Returns Tankers Restart LNG Exports), The National (Iraq Iran war chokes exports; Ras Laffan unlikely fully online before end-August; Qatar Ras Laffan months full operations), OilPrice (Qatar Races Restore LNG; Insurers $400M facility), Discovery Alert (Qatar Ras Laffan LNG explosion; Regional security disruptions export route diversification), PBS NewsHour (Lebanon 83 killed 141 wounded Jun 20), Diplomatic Insight (Israel Weighs Symbolic Withdrawal Southern Lebanon Fifth Round Washington), Shafaq News (Lebanon Israel 5th round Washington), Daily Beirut (Lebanon-Israel Fifth Round in Washington), Globalsecurity (Lebanon launches 5th round talks Israel ceasefire violations persist), Washington Institute (Lebanon-Israel Talks Defining Zones Possible Agreement), Alhurra (Lebanon-Israel Talks Progress Train Wreck), JPost (Second day Israel-Lebanon Washington talks), Wionews + Press TV + News Kerala + Nation Press (Rubio Gulf Visit; IRGC warns vessels), Goldman Sachs Research (Struyven $85 2026 base case Q4 $71), JPMorgan Global Research (~$60 baseline), NPR (IAEA Grossi inspectors visit Iran; Senate Iran war powers symbolic vote; House passes war powers Iran), Daily Times + Express Tribune (Pakistan Pezeshkian Day-2), The Nation Pakistan (Next round US-Iran talks set to restart next week), Time (Trump Lashes Out Meaningless Senate Rebuke Iran), Washington Post (Senate votes block Trump resuming Iran war), Anadolu Agency (Yemen Houthis claim ballistic missile Israeli vessel), Foreign Policy (US-Iran MOU full text), CFR (Iran Deal Reopens Strait), HSToday + UANI (Iran tightens grip Strait Hormuz; UANI shipping update), Yahoo Finance (Hormuz Crisis Sparks Middle East Pipeline Boom; VLCC Earnings near $470K), AINvest (Polymarket Hormuz 10-to-1), Phemex News (Polymarket Hormuz odds 25%), Bloomingbit + PredictionNews (Polymarket Hormuz odds), MacroMicro (IMF Strait Hormuz transit), Foreign Affairs Committee + UN press (Chairman Mast Statement US-Iran MOU; Security Council Resolution 2812 Houthi Red Sea), Iran International + IRNA Jun 23 carry (Iran-Oman joint Hormuz transit framework joint committee), Foundation Defense Democracies (Strait of Hormuz analysis), Soufan Center (Iran Deal Next Steps), Lloyd's List (Crude tanker rates VLCC index $420K), Sunday Guardian Live (US-Israel-Iran War Latest Marco Rubio GCC Talks Bahrain Iran Deal Strait Hormuz Nuclear Program Gap), Daily Tribune Kingdom of Bahrain (Bahrain hosts Rubio GCC-US ministerial). Knowledge-cutoff disclaimer applies; Grok bridge NOT used (Apple Notes MCP timed out at session; no fresh HORMUZ note within 12h window).