Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-05-11 · Evening Cycle

⚠️ CRITICAL: TRUMP — CEASEFIRE ON "MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT" — WEIGHING MILITARY ACTION

Trump escalated rhetoric sharply from C72's "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" to "massive life support" — with the vivid framing: "the doctor walks in and says, 'Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living.'" He called Iran's counterproposal "garbage" (WaPo). This is the third escalatory step in 48 hours: rejection → "totally unacceptable" → "massive life support" + "garbage."

Axios (May 11): Two US officials say Trump is leaning toward military action against Iran to increase pressure and force concessions on the nuclear program. Two options under consideration: (a) resume "Project Freedom" (Hormuz ship guidance, suspended last week), or (b) resume the bombing campaign — striking the 25% of targets the US had not previously hit. This is the first time since the Apr 8 ceasefire that active US military planning against Iran has been reported by named officials through Axios.

Trump also claimed Iran had previously "agreed to relinquish its stockpile of enriched uranium to the US" but the Iranian response "omitted any mention" of this. This directly contradicts C72's framing of Iran's HEU "dilution + transfer" offer — either Iran walked back between the WSJ/Al Jazeera reporting and the formal response, or Trump is framing a narrower gap as a total reversal.

⚠️ CRITICAL: TRUMP-XI BEIJING MEETING THIS WEEK — DIPLOMATIC TIMELINE ANCHOR

CNN regional source: "Talks are unlikely to make significant progress until the US president meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this week." Trump is expected to pressure China to lean on Iran for concessions. This creates a de facto diplomatic pause — nothing major moves before Beijing. The market should price this as a 3-5 day holding pattern, but the Axios military action reporting suggests Trump may not wait for the meeting before acting.

Reading: The Trump-Xi meeting is either (a) the venue where China delivers pressure that unlocks a deal, or (b) a diplomatic formality that gives Trump political cover to resume strikes if Xi doesn't deliver. The CIA's "Iran can outlast for months" assessment makes the Chinese pressure angle the only remaining non-military leverage path.

⚠️ CRITICAL: IDF RESERVIST KILLED — HEZBOLLAH DRONE — 9 VILLAGES EVACUATION + 2 MEDICS KILLED

IDF reservist Command Sgt.-Maj. Alexander Glovanyov (47, Petah Tikvah) killed near Manara by Hezbollah explosive drone attack, ~4 PM Sunday May 11. Multiple drones struck Israeli territory. IDF issued evacuation warnings for 9 southern Lebanese villages (Rihan, Jarjouaa, Kfar Roummane, Nmairiyeh, Arab Salim, Jmaijmeh, Mashgharah, Qellaya, Harouf) ahead of retaliatory airstrikes.

Separately, Al Jazeera reports Israel killed 2 medics in Lebanon — further complicating the May 14-15 Washington talks.

This transforms Netanyahu's "war is not over" rhetoric (C72) into kinetic reality: the Lebanon front is actively producing casualties on both sides. Combined with Trump's "massive life support" on the Iran track, the ceasefire wrapper is thinner on both axes simultaneously.

⚠️ CRITICAL: IRAN FRONT PAGES — "PREPARING FOR RESUMPTION OF WAR"

CNN (May 11): "This morning's front pages in Iran portrayed an Islamic Republic preparing for the possible resumption of war with the US and Israel." This is the Iranian media system signaling to its domestic audience that the ceasefire may collapse. Combined with Trump's "massive life support" and Axios's military planning reporting, both sides are publicly preparing their populations for the failure of diplomacy.

Top-line movers (C72→C73 delta — 8 items)

1. TRUMP: "MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT" + "GARBAGE" + MILITARY ACTION UNDER CONSIDERATION — Third rhetorical escalation in 48h. Axios: two options — resume Project Freedom or resume bombing (25% untouched targets). First reported active US military planning since Apr 8. UPGRADED FROM "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" TO ACTIVE MILITARY CONSIDERATION.

1. TRUMP-XI BEIJING MEETING THIS WEEK — Diplomatic timeline anchor. Talks unlikely to progress until then. Trump to pressure China on Iran. CIA "months of endurance" makes Chinese leverage the only non-military path. NEW — STRUCTURAL.

1. IDF RESERVIST KILLED BY HEZBOLLAH DRONE + 9 VILLAGES EVACUATION + 2 MEDICS KILLED — Lebanon front kinetically active. Netanyahu's "war not over" now has casualties to match. May 14-15 Washington talks complicated. NEW — KINETIC ESCALATION.

1. IRAN FRONT PAGES: "PREPARING FOR RESUMPTION OF WAR" — Domestic media signaling ceasefire collapse. Both sides now publicly preparing populations. NEW SIGNAL.

1. IRAN HEU CLAIM CONTRADICTED — Trump says Iran "omitted" relinquishment of enriched uranium stockpile. Contradicts C72's WSJ/AJ "dilution + transfer" framing. Either walkback or different framing of same gap. DOWNGRADED — NUCLEAR GAP MAY BE WIDER THAN C72 ASSESSED.

1. BRENT ~$104.97 / WTI ~$99.11 — Minor pullback from C72's $105+ / $99.95. Brent below $105 threshold; WTI retreated from $100 approach. Market may be digesting the "Trump-Xi pause" as a 3-5 day holding pattern. MINOR PULLBACK — THRESHOLD NOT HOLDING FIRMLY.

1. OCEAN KOI TANKER SEIZED BY IRAN (MAY 8) — Barbados-flagged, Chinese-owned, OFAC-sanctioned. Iran claims it was "disrupting oil exports." Seized same day as US-Iran naval exchange. Not in C72 baseline. NEW — ENFORCEMENT/COUNTER-ENFORCEMENT.

1. BAHRAIN+US NEW UNSC RESOLUTION — Demands: cease attacks, disclose mine locations, cooperate with removal, humanitarian corridor. Supported by Saudi/UAE/Kuwait/Qatar. Previous Bahraini draft vetoed by China+Russia Apr 7. Iran calls it "deeply flawed and politically motivated." UPDATED — NEW RESOLUTION TEXT WITH MINE DISCLOSURE DEMAND.

1. Conflict Status — DAY 73 / CEASEFIRE DAY 34

2. Strait Operational Status — PGSA LIVE; OCEAN KOI SEIZED; 10 TRANSITS MAY 9

3. Tanker Attacks Log — RUNNING TOTAL

4. Oil Prices — BRENT ~$104.97 / WTI ~$99.11 — MINOR PULLBACK FROM C72 $105 THRESHOLD

5. SPR — STATUS UNCHANGED

6. Bypass Infrastructure — STRUCTURAL GAP HOLDS

7. Maritime Insurance — P&I DAY 73+; NO CHANGE

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions — OCEAN KOI SEIZURE NEW

9. Country Response Matrix — C73 UPDATE

10. Policy Log (C73 additions — May 11 evening)

• May 11 (evening) — Trump: "MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT" + "GARBAGE" + "1% CHANCE OF LIVING" — third rhetorical escalation in 48h. (CNN, WaPo, Axios, CNBC, CBS, NBC, Al Jazeera)
• May 11 — Axios: Trump weighing military action — two options: (a) resume Project Freedom; (b) resume bombing (25% untouched targets). Two US officials confirm. (Axios)
• May 11 — Trump-Xi Beijing meeting this week — diplomatic timeline anchor. Talks won't progress until then. (CNN, CBS)
• May 11 — IDF reservist Glovanyov killed by Hezbollah drone near Manara — multiple explosive drones struck Israeli territory. (ToI, JNS, PressTV)
• May 11 — IDF issues evacuation warnings for 9 southern Lebanese villages — Rihan, Jarjouaa, Kfar Roummane, Nmairiyeh, Arab Salim, Jmaijmeh, Mashgharah, Qellaya, Harouf. (ToI)
• May 11 — Israel killed 2 medics in Lebanon — Al Jazeera headline. (Al Jazeera)
• May 11 — Iran front pages: "preparing for resumption of war" — domestic media signaling ceasefire collapse. (CNN live)
• May 11 — Brent ~$104.97 / WTI ~$99.11 — minor pullback from C72's $105+/$99.95. (CNBC, Trading Economics, Goodreturns)
• May 8 — Iran seized Ocean Koi — Barbados-flagged, Chinese-owned LR1 tanker. OFAC-sanctioned Feb 25. Night boarding, redirected to Iranian shores. NOT IN C72. (Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, gCaptain, Army Recognition)
• May 5-8 — Bahrain+US float new UNSC resolution — demands: cease attacks, disclose mine locations, cooperate with removal, humanitarian corridor. Saudi/UAE/Kuwait/Qatar support. (UN News, State Dept, Al Jazeera, The National)
• May 11 — Trump: Iran "omitted" HEU relinquishment from response — contradicts C72's "dilution + transfer" framing. (Axios, CNN)
• May 11 — Trump: Iranian leadership divided — "moderates and lunatics" — (Axios)
• May 9 — 10 vessels transited Hormuz (7 in, 3 out); 9 of 10 AIS-dark — slight uptick from 6/day. (Hormuz Monitor)
• May 11 — Khaleej Times: reopening won't mean cheaper shipping — insurance premiums structural even post-reopening. (Khaleej Times)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard — C73

12. Convergence Assessment

What Changed This Cycle (C72→C73)

1. Trump escalated to "massive life support" with active military planning reported. This is the sharpest single-cycle rhetorical escalation since April 8. Axios's two-option framing (resume Project Freedom or resume bombing of untouched targets) is the first time since the ceasefire that active US military planning has been reported through named officials. The "1% chance" framing is designed to prepare the US public for ceasefire collapse. Combined with Iran's front-page "preparing for resumption of war" messaging, both sides are now publicly conditioning their populations for the failure of diplomacy. The diplomatic backchannel persists (ToI: "closing in on framework") but is now sandwiched between two public preparations for its failure.

1. Trump-Xi Beijing meeting this week creates a de facto diplomatic pause. CNN's regional source assessment — "talks unlikely to progress until Xi" — anchors the timeline. The CIA's "Iran can outlast for months" assessment makes Chinese pressure the only remaining non-military lever. If Xi delivers pressure that unlocks an Iranian concession, the Path A' probability rises. If Xi doesn't deliver, or if China's position is compromised by the Ocean Koi seizure (Chinese-owned tanker seized by Iran), then Trump's military options become the default. The 3-5 day pause is either a window for diplomacy or a countdown to resumed strikes.

1. The Lebanon front turned kinetic. Netanyahu's "war is not over" (C72) was rhetoric. C73 has an IDF reservist killed by Hezbollah drone, 2 medics killed by Israeli strikes, and 9 Lebanese villages ordered to evacuate. The May 14-15 Washington talks on Lebanon are now complicated by fresh casualties on both sides. The geographic lock (Condition 7) is no longer "rhetorical reactivation" — it's active kinetic exchange.

1. Iran's HEU position may have walked back. Trump's claim that Iran "omitted" the relinquishment of enriched uranium from its response directly contradicts C72's WSJ/Al Jazeera "dilution + transfer" framing. Two readings: (a) Iran actually walked back between the WSJ leak and the formal response, possibly under hardline pressure; (b) Trump is framing a nuanced gap (dilute + transfer + return clause vs. full relinquishment) as a total reversal for domestic political effect. Either way, the nuclear lock partially re-tightened from C72's "bridgeable."

1. Iran seized the Ocean Koi. This is Iran's counter to CENTCOM's blockade enforcement — seizing an OFAC-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian oil. The vessel is Chinese-owned, which creates a diplomatic complication ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Both sides are now seizing each other's vessels. The enforcement domain has its own escalation spiral, parallel to the diplomatic and military tracks.

1. Bahrain+US floated a new UNSC resolution. This is the second attempt (first was vetoed by China+Russia Apr 7). The new resolution adds mine location disclosure and humanitarian corridor demands. Iran calls it "deeply flawed." China's position on this resolution — given the Trump-Xi meeting and the Ocean Koi seizure — is the structural variable.

Structural Conditions — 11 Locks

Condition 1 — Price Lock — BRENT ~$104.97 (MINOR PULLBACK FROM $105); WTI ~$99.11 (RETREATED FROM $100). The C72 $105 threshold did not hold firmly — prices pulled back on what may be the market pricing a Trump-Xi diplomatic pause. However, the Axios military action reporting has not yet been fully absorbed. Tuesday's Asia open is the test: if military planning reporting drives a fresh spike, $105 was a dip, not a reversal. If the market reads the Trump-Xi pause as a diplomatic window, prices may consolidate in the $102-106 range. Lock status: OSCILLATING — $105 FRAGILE; MILITARY ACTION REPORTING NOT YET PRICED.

Condition 2 — Supply Lock — 14 mb/d OFFLINE; STRUCTURAL. No change. Lock status: CONFIRMED.

Condition 3 — Insurance Lock — P&I DAY 73+. MINOR MODERATION AT MARGIN (0.8-1% ON NEGOTIATED TERMS). Khaleej Times frame: reopening won't mean cheaper shipping — premiums structural even post-reopening. Lock status: CONFIRMED — MINOR MODERATION NOTED BUT STRUCTURAL.

Condition 4 — Labor Lock — 22,500 SEAFARERS TRAPPED. 10 TRANSITS/DAY (9 DARK). Slight transit uptick does not change the structural picture. Lock status: CONFIRMED.

Condition 5 — Duration Lock — TRUMP "1% CHANCE" + IRAN "PREPARING FOR WAR" + CIA "MONTHS" + HARDLINERS SABOTAGING + TRUMP-XI PAUSE. The duration lock is now the crisis's central structural condition. Both sides are publicly preparing for ceasefire collapse while the diplomatic backchannel narrows. The Trump-Xi meeting is the last diplomatic off-ramp before the military options activate. If it fails, the duration lock extends to months (CIA assessment) with active kinetic resumption. Lock status: TIGHTENING — DUAL PUBLIC PREPARATION FOR COLLAPSE; TRUMP-XI = LAST OFF-RAMP.

Condition 6 — Nuclear Lock — TRUMP: HEU "OMITTED" — NUCLEAR GAP POSSIBLY WIDER THAN C72 ASSESSED. C72's "bridgeable but tight" assessment may be optimistic. If Iran actually walked back the dilution+transfer offer under hardline pressure, the nuclear gap re-opens to pre-MOU levels. If Trump is overframing, the gap remains as C72 assessed. The 30-day nuclear negotiation window is still theoretically open but Trump's "garbage" framing suggests the US is not engaging on the Iranian terms. Lock status: RE-TIGHTENING — WALKBACK OR OVERFRAMING; EITHER WAY MOMENTUM REVERSED.

Condition 7 — Geographic Lock — LEBANON FRONT KINETICALLY ACTIVE — IDF KIA + 2 MEDICS + 9 VILLAGE EVACUATIONS. Single-cycle transformation from rhetoric to kinetic. May 14-15 Washington talks complicated. Lock status: TIGHTENING — KINETIC ON TWO FRONTS (IRAN TRACK + LEBANON).

Condition 8 — Capability Lock — 40-NATION MEETING CONCLUDED; BAHRAIN+US UNSC RESOLUTION FLOATED; PROJECT FREEDOM RESUMPTION UNDER CONSIDERATION. Two parallel tracks: (a) coalition mine-clearance mandate (HMS Dragon "strictly defensive"); (b) unilateral US option (resume Project Freedom). If Trump resumes Project Freedom before the coalition authorizes its operation, the coordination collapses. Lock status: MIXED — COALITION TRACK VS UNILATERAL US TRACK; COORDINATION AT RISK.

Condition 9 — Dual Chokepoint Lock — HORMUZ + RED SEA. Houthis resumed attacks March 2 in solidarity with Iran. No new signal this cycle. Lock status: CONFIRMED.

Condition 10 — Leadership Lock — TRUMP: "MODERATES AND LUNATICS" IN IRAN; HARDLINERS SABOTAGING; MOJTABA ABSENT. Trump's public characterization of Iranian internal divisions — combined with FT/WSJ reporting on the hardline faction — suggests the US intelligence picture matches the duration lock: the Iranian decision structure cannot produce a fast deal because the internal veto faction blocks it. Lock status: CONFIRMED — INTERNAL VETO STRUCTURAL.

Condition 11 — Energy Infrastructure Lock — RAS LAFFAN 2-4YR TURBINE LEAD; SOUTH PARS 12%. No change. Lock status: CONFIRMED — IRREVERSIBLE.

Critical Watch (C74 triggers)

1. Tuesday Asia open — Does the market absorb the Axios military planning reporting? If Brent re-breaks $105 on Asia open, the "Trump-Xi pause" reading was wrong and the military signal is dominant.
2. Trump-Xi Beijing timing — Exact day? Pre-positioning signals? If Trump escalates before Beijing, the meeting itself becomes the escalation surface.
3. Project Freedom resumption — If Trump resumes the paused operation before the 40-nation coalition acts, the coordination between US unilateral and multilateral tracks collapses.
4. Iran's kinetic response — Iran's front pages signal preparation. If IRGC responds kinetically to Trump's "garbage" / "1%" framing, the ceasefire collapses formally.
5. Lebanon May 14-15 Washington talks — Do they proceed after Glovanyov KIA + 2 medics killed? Cancellation = Iran's Lebanon linkage strategy gains weight.
6. Bahrain+US UNSC resolution vote — Does China veto again? If yes, the UNSC track is dead and the coalition track is the only framework. China's position is complicated by Ocean Koi seizure and Trump-Xi meeting.
7. Iran HEU position clarification — Did Iran walk back the dilution+transfer offer (C72 WSJ/AJ) or is Trump overframing? The 30-day nuclear window's viability depends on this.
8. Ocean Koi diplomatic fallout — Chinese-owned vessel seized by Iran. Does this complicate Trump's China-pressure strategy at Beijing?
9. 40-nation meeting communique — Still pending. Content will indicate whether coalition escalates from "consultation" to "authorization" of the mine-clearance mission.
10. War risk insurance signals — Khaleej Times's "reopening won't mean cheaper shipping" frame is the structural insurance read. Any P&I re-entry signal remains the strongest de-escalation indicator.

Net Assessment

C73 is the cycle where Trump's rhetoric crossed from posturing into operational planning. The "massive life support" / "1% chance" framing is not diplomatic — it is public preparation for the death of diplomacy. Axios's two-option reporting (resume Project Freedom or resume bombing) is the first active US military planning signal since April 8. Combined with Iran's front-page "preparing for resumption of war," both sides are now simultaneously conditioning their publics for the failure of the diplomatic track.

The Trump-Xi Beijing meeting is the structural variable. It is either the last diplomatic off-ramp — where Chinese pressure delivers an Iranian concession that reopens the nuclear negotiation — or the diplomatic formality that gives Trump political cover to escalate. The CIA's "Iran can outlast for months" assessment makes Chinese pressure the only remaining non-military lever. But the Ocean Koi seizure (Chinese-owned tanker seized by Iran) complicates the China axis: does Beijing read this as Iran thumbing its nose at Chinese-flagged assets, or as the inevitable friction of the OFAC sanctions architecture?

The Lebanon front's transformation from rhetoric (Netanyahu: "war not over") to kinetic (IDF reservist killed, 2 medics killed, 9 villages evacuated) in a single cycle is the C73's most underappreciated signal. It collapses the distance between the Iran diplomatic track and the Lebanon military track. May 14-15 Washington talks on Lebanon are now freighted with fresh casualties on both sides. Iran's Lebanon linkage strategy — which makes a comprehensive deal conditional on Lebanese resolution — has more weight when the Lebanon front is actively producing bodies.

The nuclear lock partially re-tightened. Trump's claim that Iran "omitted" HEU relinquishment contradicts C72's "dilution + transfer" (WSJ/AJ). Whether this is an actual walkback or overframing, the practical effect is the same: the US narrative is that Iran reversed a key concession, and this narrative drives the military planning. C72's "bridgeable but tight" nuclear assessment should be downgraded to "bridgeable in theory, politically closed in practice." The 30-day nuclear window exists on paper but neither side is engaging on terms the other can accept.

The price pullback (Brent ~$104.97, WTI ~$99.11) is the cycle's ambiguous signal. The market may be reading the Trump-Xi meeting as a 3-5 day diplomatic window, or may be consolidating after the C72 spike. The Axios military planning reporting has not yet been fully absorbed by markets (published late Sunday / Monday, after Asia close). Tuesday's Asia open is the test.

Revised probability distribution (C73):

• Path D+ (sustained escalation in ceasefire wrapper): ~33% (−3%: the wrapper is now so thin — "massive life support" / "1%" — that maintaining it as the operating regime requires active cooperation from both sides, which the front-page signaling contradicts)
• Path B (full kinetic): ~27% (+5%: Axios military planning reporting; Trump's "1% chance" framing; Iran's "preparing for war" front pages; Lebanon front kinetically active. The probability mass shifted from D+ to B because the ceasefire wrapper is breaking.)
• Path A' (narrow Hormuz deal + 30-day window): ~19% (−2%: HEU "omission" claim re-tightens nuclear gap; Trump-Xi meeting is the remaining hope but compressed timeline)
• Path E (deal signed, phased reopening): ~9% (−1%: "massive life support" framing dims)
• Path C (indefinite siege): ~7% (+1%: CIA "months" endurance + Trump-Xi failure scenario = slow attrition)
• Path F (deal signed, collapses on implementation): ~5% (stable)

Sources (C73 new)

Trump Rhetoric / Military Planning / Ceasefire

• Trump: ceasefire "on massive life support" — CNN live
• Trump weighs military action — Axios
• Trump: "life support" — CBS live updates
• Trump: "life support" — NBC
• Trump: "life support" — CNBC
• Trump: "garbage" — WaPo
• Iran war ceasefire shaky — PBS
• Ceasefire on "life support" — The National live
• Iran war live — Al Jazeera

Trump-Xi / Diplomacy

• Trump to meet Xi in Beijing — CNN
• Iran war ceasefire — WaPo

Israel / Lebanon

• IDF reservist killed by Hezbollah drone — Times of Israel
• IDF soldier KIA — JNS
• Hezbollah drone exposing gaps in IDF preparedness — Times of Israel
• 10 killed in Israeli strikes in S. Lebanon — CBC

Oil Prices

• Brent crude — Trading Economics
• WTI crude — Trading Economics
• Oil prices rise on Iran war — CNBC
• Crude oil price May 11 — Goodreturns

Ocean Koi Seizure

• Iran seizes Ocean Koi — Al Jazeera
• Iran seizes tanker — Bloomberg
• Ocean Koi seized — gCaptain
• Iran seizes Chinese-owned tanker — Army Recognition

UNSC Resolution

• Bahrain + US UNSC resolution — UN News
• US proposes UNSC resolution — State Dept
• Gulf states urge UN action — Al Jazeera
• Why is US seeking UN help — Al Jazeera

Coalition / HMS Dragon

• UK-France host Hormuz meeting — Bloomberg
• Naval coalition lessons — Chatham House
• Coalition ready to escort — Bloomberg

Insurance / Shipping

• Reopening won't mean cheaper shipping — Khaleej Times
• War risk insurance at a price — Caixin

Strait Operations / Traffic

• Hormuz live tracker
• Strait crisis Wikipedia

SE Asia / Country Response

• Philippines energy crisis — Wikipedia
• Fuel crisis — Crisis24
• Thailand 3-phase contingency — VietnamPlus
• IEA policy response tracker

Run completed 2026-05-11 evening (Day 73). Scheduled cron run — terminal substrate. Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timed out; full 13-topic sweep. Baseline C72 (2026-05-11-c2.md) → C73 delta. Key C73 deltas: (1) Trump: "MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT" + "GARBAGE" + "1% CHANCE" — third rhetorical escalation in 48h. (2) Axios: Trump weighing military action — resume Project Freedom or bombing (25% untouched targets). First active planning since Apr 8. (3) Trump-Xi Beijing this week — diplomatic timeline anchor. (4) IDF reservist killed by Hezbollah drone (Glovanyov, Manara) + 2 medics killed + 9 villages evacuated — Lebanon front kinetically active. (5) Iran front pages: "preparing for resumption of war." (6) Trump: Iran "omitted" HEU relinquishment — contradicts C72 "dilution+transfer"; nuclear gap re-tightened. (7) Brent ~$104.97 / WTI ~$99.11 — minor pullback from C72's $105+/$99.95. (8) Ocean Koi seized by Iran (May 8) — Chinese-owned, OFAC-sanctioned. (9) Bahrain+US new UNSC resolution (mine disclosure + humanitarian corridor). Path: B 27% (+5%), D+ 33% (−3%), A' 19% (−2%), E 9% (−1%), C 7% (+1%), F 5% (stable). C73 frame: CEASEFIRE WRAPPER BREAKING — DUAL PUBLIC PREPARATION FOR COLLAPSE. TRUMP-XI = STRUCTURAL VARIABLE. LEBANON RHETORIC → KINETIC IN SINGLE CYCLE. NUCLEAR GAP RE-TIGHTENED. COUNTER-ENFORCEMENT SPIRAL (OCEAN KOI). TUESDAY ASIA OPEN = PRICE TEST. Risk: EXTREME — CRITICAL.

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