March 15, 2026 · hormuz-tracker hormuz crisis energy geopolitics · raw markdown

Series: hormuz · Cycle 4 · ← Previous · Next →

Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-03-11 · Late Evening Cycle

Conflict Status

Day 12 of US-Israel war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury). No ceasefire. Iran FM Araghchi publicly rejects ceasefire: "We need to continue fighting for the sake of our people." Tehran says nearly 10,000 civilian sites bombed; 1,300+ civilians killed in Iran. 7–8 US service members killed, ~140 wounded. IRGC launched 37th wave of attacks including "super-heavy Khoramshahr missiles" targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, West Jerusalem, and US bases in Erbil and Bahrain. Mehrabad airport (Tehran) bombed overnight March 11. US military investigating strike on Iranian girls' school (~175 students killed). Political pressure mounting in Washington — lawmakers demanding public hearings.

Ceasefire status: STALEMATE. Iran's Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to CIA through third country. Trump response: "Most of the people we had in mind are dead." Iran security chief Ali Larijani: "We will not negotiate with the United States." Deputy FM Gharibabadi says China, Russia, France have contacted Iran re: ceasefire. No active negotiations confirmed.

NEW this cycle: IRGC Navy chief Tangsiri issued explicit warning — all vessels must seek IRGC permission before transiting Hormuz or face attack. CENTCOM responded warning civilians to avoid ports used by Iranian military along the Strait. CNN reports Iran placing explosive mines along the Strait — mine threat UPGRADED.

1. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current Status	Change vs. Prior Cycle
Strait status	EFFECTIVELY CLOSED	No change since March 2
IRGC posture	HARDENED — Tangsiri demands transit permission; will attack violators	UPGRADED — explicit shoot-on-sight policy
Pre-war daily transit	~20 mb/d crude + LNG; 153 vessels/day avg	Baseline
Current transit	Near zero commercial; only Iranian-flagged/shadow fleet	CONFIRMED
Ships anchored outside	150+ vessels holding position	Stable
Ships trapped inside Gulf	55 Chinese-flagged; ~170 container ships; ~280 bulk carriers	CONFIRMED
Chinese vessel exception	Announced March 4-5; largely inoperative	CONFIRMED — Iran shipping oil to China through Strait (CNBC reports)
Mine threat	US sank 16 IRGC minelayers March 10-11; CNN: Iran placing explosive mines	UPGRADED — active mining confirmed
GPS jamming	1,100+ ships affected in 24-hour period	CONFIRMED
Major shipping cos.	Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM all suspended	CONFIRMED
Pakistan naval escorts	Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr — escorting Pakistani merchants	CONFIRMED
G7 Operation Maritime Shield	Launched March 10 — USS Gerald Ford + FR/UK/CA frigates; rotating command	NEW
US Navy escort status	Told shipping industry escorts "not possible for now"	NEW — contradicts Maritime Shield announcement
France	Macron: preparing escorts "when war calms"	NEW

Key contradiction (NEW): G7 announced "Operation Maritime Shield" March 10, but US Navy simultaneously told shipping industry Hormuz escorts are NOT possible for now. Argusmedia/SSY assess naval escort "unlikely in the near-term." France preparing only for post-conflict escort. Net: Maritime Shield appears aspirational, not operational.

Iran-to-China corridor (NEW): CNBC reports Iran sending millions of barrels to China through Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway. Shadow fleet + Iranian-flagged vessels maintaining Iran-China oil flows. This is the ONLY active commercial corridor.

2. Tanker Attacks Log

Date	Vessel	Flag	Location	Damage	Casualties	Delta
March 1	MV Skylight	—	N of Khasab, Oman	Projectile	2 Indian crew killed, 3 injured	—
March 1-2	MKD Vyom	Marshall Is.	Gulf of Oman, 52nm off Muscat	USV (kamikaze drone boat) — engine room fire	1 crew killed	—
March 2	Stena Imperative	US	Port of Bahrain	Multiple projectiles while berthed	1 shipyard worker killed, 2 injured	—
March 1-2	Hercules Star	—	17nm NW of Mina Saqr, UAE	Fire (extinguished)	None	—
March 1-2	Safeen Prestige	Malta	Near Strait	Struck; crew evacuated	Unknown	—
~March 2	Sonangol Namibe	—	Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, Kuwait	Large explosion; oil spill	Unknown	NEW — vessel ID'd
March 6	Tugboat (assisting Safeen Prestige)	—	Near Safeen Prestige	2 missiles; sank	3+ crew missing	—
March 7	Prima	—	Persian Gulf	IRGC drone strike	Unknown	—
March 7	Louise P	US	Strait of Hormuz	IRGC drone strike	Unknown	—
March 10-11	3 cargo ships	Various	Off Iran's coast	Projectiles	Under assessment	—
March 11	Mayuree Naree	Thailand	Strait of Hormuz	2 projectiles — stern + engine room explosions/fire	20 rescued; 3 crew missing (in engine room)	NEW
March 11	Express Rome	Liberia (Israeli-owned)	Strait of Hormuz	IRGC projectiles — stopped	Under assessment	NEW
Total	15+ vessels	In or near Strait/Gulf	Various	7+ killed, 6+ missing	UPGRADED from 13

IRGC claimed responsibility for Mayuree Naree and Express Rome attacks — said vessels "ignored warnings of the IRGC naval forces." This is the first time IRGC has explicitly claimed attacks on specific named vessels, signaling hardened enforcement posture.

Iranian drone strike on Oman's largest oil storage facility also reported (OilPrice.com) — NEW.

3. Oil Prices

Benchmark	Current (March 11 Late)	Prior Cycle	Pre-war (Feb 27)	Peak (crisis)	Change from pre-war
Brent Crude	$91.60/bbl (range: $86.29-93.15)	$89.45	~$73	$119.50-126 (March 8)	+25%
WTI	$88.52/bbl (+6.06% intraday)	$85.59	~$66	~$113-115 (March 8-10)	+34%

Price trajectory: Brent recovered strongly from $87.80 close to $91.60 intraday (+4.3%). WTI surged 6% intraday. IEA unanimous 400M barrel approval initially dampened prices but IRGC Hormuz escalation (Tangsiri warning, 2 new ship attacks, mine deployment) pushed prices back up. TASS reports Brent hit $92.49 (+5.34%) in Moscow trading.

VLCC freight rate: $423,736/day benchmark (all-time high); spot up to $770-800K/day. Unchanged.

EIA forecast: Brent >$95 next 2 months; below $80 Q3 2026; ~$70 by EOY. ~$64 avg in 2027.

4. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA Coordinated Release — APPROVED

Parameter	Status	Δ
Volume	400M barrels — APPROVED UNANIMOUSLY	UPGRADED — vote passed March 11
Vote result	32 member countries — unanimous	NEW — decision confirmed
Release timeline	Appropriate to circumstances of each country	NEW
Max drawdown rate	~4.4 mb/d (US SPR) + ~1.5 mb/d commercial; 3-4 mb/d global first stage	—
Time to market	2-4 weeks for physical supply; 13 days minimum (US SPR)	—
Historical context	2.2x larger than previous record (182M bbl in 2022 post-Ukraine)	—

US SPR: ~415M bbl (~58% capacity). Trump considering coordinated release. Also floated waiving Iran oil sanctions.

Country Reserves (Updated)

Country	Reserve Days	Emergency Actions	Δ
Japan	~150 days	JOGMEC preparing; release starting Monday March 16	UPGRADED — date confirmed
South Korea	~208 days	$68.3B fund; fuel price cap proposed; in IEA release	CONFIRMED
India	~50 days (25 crude + 25 products)	Contingency activated; MOST VULNERABLE	CONFIRMED
China	~130 days (11 facilities)	Pressing Iran; ceasefire contacts; IEA association country	CONFIRMED
Thailand	Unknown	Suspended petroleum exports; increased reserve obligations	CONFIRMED
Indonesia	Unknown	Most at-risk SE Asian economy for fuel crisis	CONFIRMED

Practical limit: 400M barrels = <5 days of disrupted Strait volume. Buys time, doesn't solve. EIA: physical oil takes 2-4 weeks to reach markets in meaningful volumes. OPEC analysis: SPR releases moderate spikes but don't prevent elevated prices when disruptions are structural.

5. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity	Utilization	Spare	Status	Δ
Saudi East-West (Abqaiq→Yanbu)	7 mb/d (CEO confirmed)	Nearing full	Filling	Yanbu port bottleneck: can only export ~4.5 mb/d	DOWNGRADED — port constraint identified
UAE Habshan-Fujairah	1.8 mb/d	~1.1 mb/d	~0.7 mb/d	Possible drone damage to Fujairah	—
Iraq-Turkey (Kirkuk→Ceyhan)	0.9 mb/d	Intermittent	Variable	Iraq Rumaila shut (storage full)	—
Iran Goreh-Jask	~300K b/d (possibly 1 mb/d)	Limited	Minimal	Active for Iranian exports	CONFIRMED
Egypt SUMED pipeline	2.5 mb/d	Available	Full	Egypt offered to transport Saudi crude Red Sea→Med	NEW
Cape of Good Hope	Unlimited	Increasing	N/A	+2-3 weeks transit	—

Key updates: Yanbu port loading capacity caps practical East-West pipeline throughput at ~4.5 mb/d despite 7 mb/d pipe capacity. Ras Tanura (550K bpd) offline from Iranian drone strikes. Houthi Red Sea attacks continue — risk to Yanbu-bound traffic. Kuwait and Qatar have ZERO bypass. Iranian drone strike hit Oman's largest oil storage facility — NEW.

SUMED pipeline (NEW): Egypt's Petroleum Minister offered SUMED pipeline (2.5 mb/d) to help transport Saudi crude from Red Sea to Mediterranean. Could open European supply route.

Max total bypass: ~8.8-9.5 mb/d (adding SUMED potential). Gap vs. 20 mb/d = ~10-11 mb/d still unbridgeable.

6. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

Parameter	Current	Δ
War risk premium	1.0% vessel value (7-day renewable); some at 0.2-0.4%	CONFIRMED
VLCC voyage premium	$2-3M per voyage ($200K-360K additional)	CONFIRMED
P&I coverage	CANCELLED (5 major clubs, eff. March 5)	—
China P&I	Adopted JWLA-033 war zone list March 8	—
US reinsurance	$20B DFC program ($20B burden shifted to US taxpayer)	CONFIRMED
VLCC freight	$423K/day benchmark; $770-800K/day spot	—
Container rate	~$4,200/FEU Shanghai→Jebel Ali (+55% MoM)	—
Marine hull rates	Could rise 50% (Marsh estimate)	NEW

US tanker escort: White House denied. US Navy told shipping industry escorts "not possible for now." G7 Operation Maritime Shield announced but appears aspirational. France: "when war calms." No confirmed commercial escort has occurred.

7. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

~430 tankers in Iranian trade; 62% falsely flagged; 87% sanctioned. ~300M barrels unsold on shadow tankers at sea.

Shadow fleet = ONLY ships transiting Hormuz aside from Iranian-flagged vessels. Iran actively shipping oil to China through this corridor.

Enforcement actions:

14 European nations signed agreement to impede non-compliant shadow fleet
Cameroon pledged to deregister all shadow fleet tankers
MMIA (New Zealand) exposed insuring 1/6 of shadow fleet
India seized 3 shadow fleet tankers (Al Jafzia, Asphalt Star, Stellar Ruby) — Feb 6
US seized 8+ tankers under Venezuela quarantine
Sweden/Germany imposed new Baltic inspection regimes
US Treasury sanctioned 30+ individuals/entities/vessels Feb 25; 12 shadow fleet vessels designated

8. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Key Actions	Risk	Δ
US	Belligerent	$20B reinsurance; escort NOT operational; SPR consideration; sanctions waiver floated; 7-8 KIA; school strike probe; CENTCOM warning re: ports	Moderate	UPGRADED
Israel	Belligerent	Under Khoramshahr missile attacks (37th wave); Lebanon ceasefire collapsed	High	CONFIRMED
Iran	Belligerent	37 attack waves; 1,300+ dead; FM rejects ceasefire; Tangsiri: shoot-on-sight in Hormuz; mining Strait	Existential	UPGRADED
Saudi Arabia	Bypass mode	E-W pipeline nearing 7 mb/d (port bottleneck 4.5 mb/d); Ras Tanura offline	High	DOWNGRADED — port constraint
UAE	Under threat	Fujairah 1.1 mb/d; possible drone damage	High	—
China	Diplomatic	55 ships trapped; receiving Iran oil via shadow fleet; ceasefire contacts; ~130-day reserves	Moderate	CONFIRMED
Japan	Emergency	JOGMEC preparing; SPR release starting Monday March 16	High	UPGRADED
South Korea	Emergency	$68.3B fund; price cap; IEA release participant	High	CONFIRMED
India	MOST VULNERABLE	~50 days reserves; 85% import dependency; Mayuree Naree was India-bound	CRITICAL	CONFIRMED
Pakistan	Naval ops	Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr	Moderate-High	—
Thailand	Emergency	Suspended petroleum exports; Mayuree Naree attacked (Thai-flagged)	High	UPGRADED
Indonesia	At risk	Most at-risk SE Asian economy per analysts	Moderate-High	CONFIRMED
Oman	Under attack	Largest oil storage facility hit by Iranian drone	High	NEW
Egypt	Offering support	SUMED pipeline (2.5 mb/d) offered for Saudi crude	Low-Moderate	NEW
France	Preparing	Naval build-up Cyprus→Red Sea; escorts "when war calms"	Low	NEW

9. Policy & Regulatory Actions (Cycle 4 additions)

Date	Actor	Action	Δ
March 11	IEA	400M barrel release — UNANIMOUSLY APPROVED by 32 members	UPGRADED — passed
March 11	Japan	SPR release starting Monday March 16	UPGRADED
March 11	IRGC Navy chief Tangsiri	All vessels must seek IRGC permission or face attack	NEW
March 11	IRGC	Claimed attacks on Mayuree Naree (Thai) + Express Rome (Israeli-owned)	NEW
March 11	Iran	Drone strike on Oman's largest oil storage facility	NEW
March 11	CNN/reports	Iran placing explosive mines in Strait	NEW
March 11	CENTCOM	Warning: civilians avoid ports used by Iranian military	NEW
March 11	US Navy	Told shipping industry Hormuz escorts "not possible for now"	NEW
March 10	G7	"Operation Maritime Shield" announced — aspirational, not operational	NEW
March 11	Egypt	SUMED pipeline (2.5 mb/d) offered for Saudi crude transport	NEW
March 11	Macron	France preparing naval build-up Cyprus→Red Sea	NEW

(Full chronological log in cycles 1-3; this table shows cycle 4 additions only.)

10. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend	Signal
Conflict day	Day 12	→	No ceasefire
Iran civilian dead	1,300+	↑	Mounting
US KIA	7-8	↑	Political pressure
Strait transits/day	~0 commercial	↓↓↓	Hardened closure — shoot-on-sight
Brent crude	$91.60	↑ from $89.45	IEA dampened but IRGC escalation reversed
WTI	$88.52	↑↑ +6% intraday	Same dynamic
VLCC rates	$423K-800K/day	→ ATH	Extreme
War risk premium	0.2-1.0% (7-day)	→	Available but costly
Vessels attacked	15+	↑↑	2 new attacks today
Seafarers killed/missing	7+ killed, 6+ missing	↑	Mayuree Naree: 3 missing
IEA SPR release	400M bbl — APPROVED	✓ DONE	Unanimous. Physical supply 2-4 weeks
Japan SPR release	Starting March 16	✓ SCHEDULED	First unilateral action
E-W pipeline	7 mb/d pipe / 4.5 mb/d port	→	Port bottleneck identified
Total bypass capacity	~8.8-9.5 mb/d max	↑ (SUMED)	Gap ~10-11 mb/d
India reserves	~50 days	↓ critical	Most vulnerable; India-bound ship attacked
China reserves	~130 days	→	Receiving Iran oil via shadow fleet
Ships trapped in Gulf	55 Chinese + 170 container + 280 bulk	→	Massive
GPS jamming	1,100+ ships/24hrs	→	Sustained
Mine threat	ACTIVE — Iran mining Strait	↑↑	UPGRADED
IRGC posture	Shoot-on-sight; permission required	↑↑	HARDENED
G7 Maritime Shield	Announced but NOT operational	⚠️	Aspirational only

11. Convergence Assessment

What Changed This Cycle

ESCALATION (dominant signal):

IRGC shoot-on-sight policy — Tangsiri explicitly demands transit permission. First time IRGC claimed named vessel attacks (Mayuree Naree, Express Rome). This is a hardening from "closure" to "active enforcement."
Two new vessel attacks March 11 — Mayuree Naree (Thai, India-bound; 3 crew missing) + Express Rome (Israeli-owned). Total now 15+ vessels, 7+ killed, 6+ missing.
Iran mining the Strait — CNN confirms explosive mine deployment. Combined with shoot-on-sight policy, this makes any maritime escort extremely dangerous.
Iranian drone strike on Oman's oil storage — conflict expanding to neighboring neutral infrastructure.
G7 Maritime Shield is aspirational, not real — US Navy told shipping industry escorts "not possible for now." France: "when war calms." No commercial vessel has been escorted. Market priced this as real; it isn't.

STABILIZATION:

IEA 400M barrel release — UNANIMOUSLY APPROVED. Largest in IEA history. 2.2x the 2022 record. Immediate price signal (Brent still below $95).
Japan SPR release starting March 16 — first unilateral national action.
SUMED pipeline offered — Egypt's 2.5 mb/d pipeline could open Red Sea→Med route for Saudi crude.
Yanbu exports continuing despite Houthi threat.

CRITICAL WATCH:

Maritime Shield credibility gap — If markets realize G7 escorts aren't happening, oil reprices sharply upward. This is the single biggest near-term risk to price stability.
Mine threat + shoot-on-sight — Makes any future escort operation extremely dangerous. IRGC has escalated the cost of reopening.
India's clock — Mayuree Naree was India-bound from UAE. India's ~50-day reserve window is burning.
Oman infrastructure strikes — If Iran hits more neutral GCC storage/port infrastructure, bypass routes degrade.
Houthi + Yanbu — Still the critical wildcard for Saudi bypass.
Yanbu port bottleneck — 7 mb/d pipe but only 4.5 mb/d loading capacity. Reduces effective bypass.
Physical SPR delivery lag — 2-4 weeks. Market is pricing the announcement, not the barrels.

Net Assessment

Cycle 4 marks a qualitative shift in IRGC posture. Moving from "closure" to "active shoot-on-sight enforcement with mining" fundamentally changes the reopening calculus. G7 Maritime Shield was supposed to be the counterweight — but it's vapor. The IEA release provides a price ceiling but not a supply floor. The gap between announcement effects (which are working) and physical reality (which is worsening) is the central tension. If the market tests this gap — e.g., a Maritime Shield convoy gets attacked, or physical shortages appear in India/Indonesia before SPR barrels arrive — prices will spike well above $100.

Escalation probability: INCREASING. Iran is hardening, not softening. The school strike probe creates domestic US pressure to de-escalate, but IRGC's Hormuz posture creates pressure to escalate. These are on collision course.

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