Series: hormuz · Cycle 3
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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-03-11 · 21:00 cycle
Conflict Status
Day 12 of US-Israel war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury). No ceasefire. Iran FM Araghchi publicly rejects ceasefire: "We need to continue fighting for the sake of our people." Tehran says nearly 10,000 civilian sites bombed; 1,300+ civilians killed in Iran (UPGRADED from 1,255 at cycle 1). 7 US service members killed, ~140 wounded. IRGC launched 37th wave of attacks including "super-heavy Khoramshahr missiles" targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, West Jerusalem, and US bases in Erbil and Bahrain. NEW: Mehrabad airport (Tehran) bombed overnight March 11. NEW: US military investigating strike on Iranian girls' school that killed ~175 students; photographic evidence suggests US missile responsible. Political pressure mounting in Washington — lawmakers demanding public hearings on war goals.
Ceasefire back-channel: Iran's Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to CIA through a third country's intelligence service. Trump response: "Most of the people we had in mind are dead." No active negotiations confirmed by either side. Iran security chief Ali Larijani: Tehran has no plans to engage with Trump administration. Status: STALEMATE — no progress since initial outreach.
1. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status
| Parameter | Current Status | Change vs. Prior Cycle |
|---|---|---|
| Strait status | EFFECTIVELY CLOSED | No change since March 2 |
| IRGC closure declaration | March 2, 2026 — official closure | — |
| Pre-war daily transit | ~20 mb/d crude + LNG; 153 vessels/day avg | Baseline |
| Current transit | Near zero commercial; only Iranian-flagged ships detected | CONFIRMED — 78 total transits since March 1 (avg 13/day, almost all early days); March 9 = 1 outbound, 0 inbound |
| Ships anchored/stranded outside | 150+ vessels holding position | Stable |
| Ships trapped inside Gulf | 55 Chinese-flagged ships; ~280 bulk carriers | NEW — bulk carrier count |
| Chinese vessel exception | Announced March 4-5; largely inoperative | CONFIRMED — only 2 Chinese-flagged ships transited since March 1 |
| Mine threat | US sank 16 IRGC minelayers overnight March 10-11 | Active mine-clearing continues |
| GPS jamming | 1,100+ ships affected in 24-hour period | NEW |
| Major shipping companies | Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM all suspended Hormuz transits | CONFIRMED |
| Pakistan naval escorts | Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr launched March 9 — escorting Pakistani merchant vessels | NEW |
2. Tanker Attacks Log
| Date | Vessel | Location | Damage | Casualties | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 1 | MV Skylight | N of Khasab, Oman | Struck by projectile | 2 Indian crew killed, 3 injured | — |
| March 1-2 | MKD Vyom | Gulf of Oman, 52nm off Muscat | USV (kamikaze drone boat) — engine room explosion/fire | 1 crew killed | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 2 | Stena Imperative | Port of Bahrain (Salman Industrial City) | Multiple projectiles while berthed | 1 shipyard worker killed, 2 seriously injured | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 1-2 | Hercules Star | 17nm NW of Mina Saqr, UAE | Fire onboard (extinguished) | None reported | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 1-2 | Safeen Prestige (Malta-flagged) | Near Strait | Struck; crew evacuated | Unknown | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 6 | Tugboat (assisting Safeen Prestige) | Near Safeen Prestige | Struck by 2 missiles; sank | 3+ crew missing | NEW |
| March 7 | Prima | Persian Gulf | IRGC drone strike (claimed) | Unknown | NEW |
| March 7 | Louise P (US-flagged) | Strait of Hormuz | IRGC drone strike (claimed) | Unknown | NEW |
| March 10-11 | 3 cargo ships | Off Iran's coast | Struck by projectiles | Under assessment | — |
| Total | 13+ vessels | In or near Strait/Gulf | Various | 7+ seafarers killed, 3+ missing | UPGRADED from 10 |
3. Oil Prices
| Benchmark | Current (March 11 PM) | Pre-war (Feb 27) | Peak (crisis) | Change from pre-war |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $89.45/bbl | ~$73/bbl | $119.50-126/bbl (March 8) | +23% |
| WTI | $85.59/bbl | ~$66/bbl | ~$113-115/bbl (March 8-10) | +30% |
VLCC freight rate: $423,736/day benchmark (all-time high); up to $770-800K/day on spot. +154% first week post-intervention.
4. Strategic Petroleum Reserves
IEA Coordinated Release
| Parameter | Status | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Proposed volume | 400M barrels (LARGEST IN IEA HISTORY) | CONFIRMED — German Economy Min confirmed figure |
| Decision status | 32 member countries to vote Wednesday March 12 | UPGRADED — vote date set |
| G7 backing | 3 of 7 members (incl. US) backed release | UPGRADED |
| Max drawdown rate | ~4.4 mb/d (US SPR) + ~1.5 mb/d commercial; 3-4 mb/d global first stage | NEW |
| Time to market | 2-4 weeks for physical supply | NEW |
| South Korea | Confirmed in IEA release discussions | NEW |
US SPR: ~415M bbl (~58% capacity). Trump now considering coordinated release. Also floated waiving Iran oil sanctions.
Country Reserves (Updated)
| Country | Reserve Days | Emergency Actions | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | ~150 days | JOGMEC Shibushi directed to prepare; refineries formally requested release | UPGRADED |
| South Korea | ~208 days | $68.3B fund; fuel price cap proposed; in IEA talks | UPGRADED |
| India | ~50 days (25 crude + 25 products) | Contingency activated; MOST VULNERABLE | CONFIRMED — refined |
| China | ~130 days (11 facilities) | Pressing Iran; ceasefire contacts | UPGRADED from 80-90 est. |
| Thailand | Unknown | Suspended petroleum exports; increased reserve obligations | NEW |
| Indonesia | Unknown | Most at-risk SE Asian economy for fuel crisis | NEW |
5. Bypass Infrastructure
| Route | Capacity | Utilization | Spare | Status | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi East-West (Abqaiq→Yanbu) | 7 mb/d (CEO confirmed) | ~2 mb/d to refineries | Up to 5 mb/d | Nearing full capacity "in next couple of days" — Yanbu exports at record | UPGRADED — 7 mb/d confirmed |
| UAE Habshan-Fujairah | 1.8 mb/d | ~1.1 mb/d | ~0.7 mb/d | Active; possible damage from Iranian strikes | — |
| Iraq-Turkey (Kirkuk→Ceyhan) | 0.9 mb/d | Intermittent | Variable | Iraq shutting Rumaila (storage full) | DOWNGRADED |
| Iran Jask Terminal | Limited | Rarely used | Minimal | Loading at Jask | — |
| Cape of Good Hope | Unlimited | Increasing | N/A | +2-3 weeks transit | — |
6. Maritime Insurance & Shipping
| Parameter | Current | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| War risk premium | 1.0% vessel value (7-day renewable) | CONFIRMED — new contracts available |
| VLCC voyage premium | $2-3M per voyage | NEW |
| P&I coverage | CANCELLED (5 major clubs, eff. March 5) | — |
| China P&I | Adopted JWLA-033 war zone list March 8 | NEW |
| US reinsurance | $20B DFC program | — |
| VLCC freight | $423K/day benchmark; $770-800K/day spot | UPGRADED |
| Container rate | ~$4,200/FEU Shanghai→Jebel Ali (+55% MoM) | NEW |
7. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions
~430 tankers in Iranian trade; 62% falsely flagged; 87% sanctioned. ~300M barrels unsold on shadow tankers at sea. Shadow tankers are the only ships still transiting Hormuz.
New this cycle: 14 European nations signed agreement to impede non-compliant shadow fleet. Cameroon pledged to deregister all shadow fleet tankers. MMIA (New Zealand) exposed insuring 1/6 of shadow fleet.
8. Country Response Matrix
| Country | Posture | Key Actions | Risk | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Belligerent | $20B reinsurance; escort retracted; considering SPR + sanctions waiver; 7 KIA; school strike probe | Moderate | UPGRADED |
| Israel | Belligerent | Under Khoramshahr missile attacks (37th wave) | High | UPGRADED |
| Iran | Belligerent | 37 attack waves; 1,300+ dead; FM rejects ceasefire; back-channel inconclusive | Existential | UPGRADED |
| Saudi Arabia | Bypass mode | E-W pipeline nearing 7 mb/d; Ras Tanura offline; Yanbu record exports | High | UPGRADED |
| UAE | Under threat | Fujairah at 1.1 mb/d; possible damage | High | — |
| China | Diplomatic | 55 ships trapped; 2 transited; ceasefire contacts; ~130-day reserves | Moderate | CONFIRMED |
| Japan | Emergency | JOGMEC preparing release; refineries requesting action | High | UPGRADED |
| South Korea | Emergency | $68.3B fund; price cap; IEA talks | High | UPGRADED |
| India | MOST VULNERABLE | ~50 days reserves; 85% import dependency | CRITICAL | CONFIRMED |
| Pakistan | Naval ops | Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr | Moderate-High | NEW |
| Thailand | Emergency | Suspended petroleum exports | Moderate | NEW |
| Indonesia | At risk | Most vulnerable SE Asian economy | Moderate-High | NEW |
9. Policy & Regulatory Actions (Cycle 3 additions)
| Date | Actor | Action | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2 | Iran | Ras Tanura drone strikes (550K bpd offline) | NEW |
| March 6 | IRGC | Tugboat sunk assisting Safeen Prestige | NEW |
| March 7 | IRGC | Drone strikes on Prima and Louise P | NEW |
| March 8 | China P&I | Adopted JWLA-033 war zone | NEW |
| March 9 | Pakistan Navy | Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr | NEW |
| March 9 | Trump | Floated Iran oil sanctions waiver | NEW |
| March 10 | Aramco CEO | E-W pipeline to 7 mb/d "in days" | NEW |
| March 10 | US Energy Sec | Escort claim retracted; White House denied | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | IEA | 400M bbl proposal; vote March 12 | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | Japan | JOGMEC directed to prepare; refineries requesting | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | S. Korea | Price cap + IEA talks | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | IRGC | 37th wave — Khoramshahr missiles | NEW |
| March 11 | US | Mehrabad airport bombed; school strike probe | NEW |
| March 11 | 14 EU nations | Shadow fleet enforcement agreement | NEW |
10. Key Metrics Dashboard
| Metric | Value | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conflict day | Day 12 | → | No ceasefire |
| Iran civilian dead | 1,300+ | ↑ | Mounting |
| US KIA | 7 | ↑ | Political pressure |
| Strait transits/day | ~0-1 commercial | ↓↓↓ | Closure deepening |
| Brent crude | $89.45 | ↕ volatile | IEA proposal dampening |
| WTI | $85.59 | ↕ volatile | IEA proposal dampening |
| VLCC rates | $423K-800K/day | ↑↑ ATH | Extreme |
| War risk premium | 1.0% (7-day) | → | Repriced but available |
| Vessels attacked | 13+ | ↑ | Ongoing |
| Seafarers killed/missing | 7+ killed, 3+ missing | ↑ | Ongoing |
| IEA SPR release | 400M bbl; vote March 12 | IMMINENT | Decision hours away |
| E-W pipeline | Nearing 7 mb/d | ↑↑ | Record |
| Total bypass capacity | ~8.8 mb/d max | ↑ | Gap ~11 mb/d |
| India reserves | ~50 days | ↓ critical | Most vulnerable |
| China reserves | ~130 days | → | Better than prior est. |
| Ships trapped in Gulf | 55 Chinese + 280 bulk | → | Massive |
| GPS jamming | 1,100+ ships/24hrs | ↑ | New threat vector |
11. Convergence Assessment
What Changed This Cycle
ESCALATION:
- Casualties accelerating — Iran 1,300+ dead; US 7 KIA. Girls' school strike (~175 students) under investigation — political flashpoint.
- IRGC 37th attack wave with Khoramshahr missiles — heaviest ordnance to date.
- Strait closure deepening — March 9: 1 outbound transit, 0 inbound. Dry bulk collapse 91%. Force majeures spreading.
- GPS jamming — 1,100+ ships in 24 hours. New threat dimension.
STABILIZATION:
- Aramco E-W pipeline nearing 7 mb/d — doubles prior spare capacity estimate. Yanbu exports at record.
- IEA vote tomorrow (March 12) — 400M barrel release has partial G7 backing. Price signal already moderating.
- Oil stabilizing at ~$89 (down from $120 peak). Market pricing partial resolution.
- Japan moving unilaterally on SPR release preparation.
CRITICAL WATCH:
- IEA vote March 12 — Approved → 2-4 week lag, immediate price signal. Denied → oil >$100 within days.
- Girls' school strike probe — Could reshape US domestic support for war.
- India's ~50-day reserve clock — Physical shortages if crisis extends to late April.
- Houthi Red Sea attacks — If they target Yanbu-bound traffic, Saudi bypass route compromised. Single biggest risk to bypass strategy.
- Iran FM ceasefire rejection — No off-ramp visible.
Net assessment: Military/humanitarian escalation vs. partial economic/supply stabilization. These are in tension — political pressure from casualties may force diplomatic off-ramp before supply crisis fully materializes, or escalation could destroy the bypass infrastructure slowly compensating. Houthi threats to Yanbu route are the critical wildcard.
Sources
- 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis — Wikipedia
- 2026 Iran war — Wikipedia
- Iran war Day 12 — Al Jazeera
- Tehran says 10,000 civilian sites bombed — Al Jazeera
- Iran FM rejects ceasefire — NBC News
- Iran reached out to CIA — Jerusalem Post
- No one getting through Hormuz — CSIS
- Strait closed to most ships — Bloomberg
- Hormuz disruptions — UNCTAD
- Kamikaze drone boat strike — The War Zone
- Five ships hit — gCaptain
- Oil steady after IEA proposal — Euronews
- IEA proposes largest release — Bloomberg
- South Korea in IEA talks — UPI
- SPR limitations — CNN
- Japan oil reserve preparation — Japan Times
- Asia energy crisis — Fortune
- Aramco E-W pipeline — S&P Global
- Aramco catastrophic warning — The National
- Saudi Red Sea pipeline limits — AGBI
- VLCC rates ATH — CNBC
- War risk insurance repricing — Caixin
- Shadow tankers only ships transiting — The Conversation
- Trump floats sanctions waiver — Fortune
- White House denies escort — Pakistan Today
- Pakistan Op Muhafiz-ul-Bahr — Quwa
- Shadow fleet enforcement — Kharon
- Casualties 4,300+ — Hengaw
- US live updates — CNN
- Hormuz — EIA
- Windward maritime intelligence — March 10
- Navigating 2026 energy crisis — A&M