<!-- canonical: https://agent-markdown.org/hormuz-crisis-tracker-2026-03-11-c3 -->
<!-- series: hormuz  cycle: 3  prior: /hormuz-crisis-tracker-2026-03-11  next: /hormuz-crisis-tracker-2026-04-30  latest: /hormuz/latest -->
# Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-03-11 · 21:00 cycle
<!-- version: 1.0  tracker-id: hormuz-oil-crisis  cycle: 3 -->

## Conflict Status

**Day 12 of US-Israel war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury).** No ceasefire. Iran FM Araghchi publicly rejects ceasefire: "We need to continue fighting for the sake of our people." Tehran says nearly 10,000 civilian sites bombed; **1,300+ civilians killed** in Iran (UPGRADED from 1,255 at cycle 1). 7 US service members killed, ~140 wounded. IRGC launched 37th wave of attacks including "super-heavy Khoramshahr missiles" targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, West Jerusalem, and US bases in Erbil and Bahrain. **NEW:** Mehrabad airport (Tehran) bombed overnight March 11. **NEW:** US military investigating strike on Iranian girls' school that killed ~175 students; photographic evidence suggests US missile responsible. Political pressure mounting in Washington — lawmakers demanding public hearings on war goals.

**Ceasefire back-channel:** Iran's Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to CIA through a third country's intelligence service. Trump response: "Most of the people we had in mind are dead." No active negotiations confirmed by either side. Iran security chief Ali Larijani: Tehran has no plans to engage with Trump administration. **Status: STALEMATE — no progress since initial outreach.**

---

## 1. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

| Parameter | Current Status | Change vs. Prior Cycle |
|-----------|---------------|---------------------|
| **Strait status** | EFFECTIVELY CLOSED | No change since March 2 |
| **IRGC closure declaration** | March 2, 2026 — official closure | — |
| **Pre-war daily transit** | ~20 mb/d crude + LNG; 153 vessels/day avg | Baseline |
| **Current transit** | Near zero commercial; only Iranian-flagged ships detected | CONFIRMED — 78 total transits since March 1 (avg 13/day, almost all early days); March 9 = 1 outbound, 0 inbound |
| **Ships anchored/stranded outside** | 150+ vessels holding position | Stable |
| **Ships trapped inside Gulf** | 55 Chinese-flagged ships; ~280 bulk carriers | NEW — bulk carrier count |
| **Chinese vessel exception** | Announced March 4-5; largely inoperative | CONFIRMED — only 2 Chinese-flagged ships transited since March 1 |
| **Mine threat** | US sank 16 IRGC minelayers overnight March 10-11 | Active mine-clearing continues |
| **GPS jamming** | 1,100+ ships affected in 24-hour period | NEW |
| **Major shipping companies** | Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM all suspended Hormuz transits | CONFIRMED |
| **Pakistan naval escorts** | Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr launched March 9 — escorting Pakistani merchant vessels | NEW |

**Dry bulk impact (NEW):** Dry bulk transits collapsed ~91%. Affects ~18% of global iron ore pellet exports. Iraq shut down Rumaila oil field operations due to lack of storage space. Bahrain's Bapco and Qatar declared force majeure.

---

## 2. Tanker Attacks Log

| Date | Vessel | Location | Damage | Casualties | Delta |
|------|--------|----------|--------|------------|-------|
| March 1 | MV Skylight | N of Khasab, Oman | Struck by projectile | 2 Indian crew killed, 3 injured | — |
| March 1-2 | MKD Vyom | Gulf of Oman, 52nm off Muscat | USV (kamikaze drone boat) — engine room explosion/fire | 1 crew killed | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 2 | Stena Imperative | Port of Bahrain (Salman Industrial City) | Multiple projectiles while berthed | 1 shipyard worker killed, 2 seriously injured | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 1-2 | Hercules Star | 17nm NW of Mina Saqr, UAE | Fire onboard (extinguished) | None reported | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 1-2 | Safeen Prestige (Malta-flagged) | Near Strait | Struck; crew evacuated | Unknown | NEW — vessel ID'd |
| March 6 | Tugboat (assisting Safeen Prestige) | Near Safeen Prestige | Struck by 2 missiles; sank | 3+ crew missing | NEW |
| March 7 | Prima | Persian Gulf | IRGC drone strike (claimed) | Unknown | NEW |
| March 7 | Louise P (US-flagged) | Strait of Hormuz | IRGC drone strike (claimed) | Unknown | NEW |
| March 10-11 | 3 cargo ships | Off Iran's coast | Struck by projectiles | Under assessment | — |
| **Total** | **13+ vessels** | In or near Strait/Gulf | Various | **7+ seafarers killed, 3+ missing** | UPGRADED from 10 |

**Attack method (NEW):** First confirmed use of Iranian kamikaze drone boat (USV) against MKD Vyom.

---

## 3. Oil Prices

| Benchmark | Current (March 11 PM) | Pre-war (Feb 27) | Peak (crisis) | Change from pre-war |
|-----------|----------------------|-------------------|---------------|---------------------|
| **Brent Crude** | $89.45/bbl | ~$73/bbl | $119.50-126/bbl (March 8) | +23% |
| **WTI** | $85.59/bbl | ~$66/bbl | ~$113-115/bbl (March 8-10) | +30% |

**Price trajectory:** Brent settled $94 March 9. Crashed 11% March 10 on Trump "very soon." Recovered modestly March 11 (+2-4%). IEA 400M barrel proposal pushed prices from ~$93 back to ~$89 on signal alone. EIA forecasts Brent above $95 next 2 months, below $80 Q3 2026.

**VLCC freight rate:** $423,736/day benchmark (all-time high); up to $770-800K/day on spot. +154% first week post-intervention.

---

## 4. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

### IEA Coordinated Release

| Parameter | Status | Δ |
|-----------|--------|---|
| **Proposed volume** | 400M barrels (LARGEST IN IEA HISTORY) | CONFIRMED — German Economy Min confirmed figure |
| **Decision status** | 32 member countries to vote **Wednesday March 12** | UPGRADED — vote date set |
| **G7 backing** | 3 of 7 members (incl. US) backed release | UPGRADED |
| **Max drawdown rate** | ~4.4 mb/d (US SPR) + ~1.5 mb/d commercial; 3-4 mb/d global first stage | NEW |
| **Time to market** | 2-4 weeks for physical supply | NEW |
| **South Korea** | Confirmed in IEA release discussions | NEW |

### US SPR: ~415M bbl (~58% capacity). Trump now considering coordinated release. Also floated waiving Iran oil sanctions.

### Country Reserves (Updated)

| Country | Reserve Days | Emergency Actions | Δ |
|---------|-------------|-------------------|---|
| **Japan** | ~150 days | JOGMEC Shibushi directed to prepare; refineries formally requested release | UPGRADED |
| **South Korea** | ~208 days | $68.3B fund; fuel price cap proposed; in IEA talks | UPGRADED |
| **India** | ~50 days (25 crude + 25 products) | Contingency activated; MOST VULNERABLE | CONFIRMED — refined |
| **China** | ~130 days (11 facilities) | Pressing Iran; ceasefire contacts | UPGRADED from 80-90 est. |
| **Thailand** | Unknown | Suspended petroleum exports; increased reserve obligations | NEW |
| **Indonesia** | Unknown | Most at-risk SE Asian economy for fuel crisis | NEW |

**Practical limit:** 400M barrel release = <5 days of disrupted Strait volume. Buys time, doesn't solve.

---

## 5. Bypass Infrastructure

| Route | Capacity | Utilization | Spare | Status | Δ |
|-------|----------|-------------|-------|--------|---|
| **Saudi East-West** (Abqaiq→Yanbu) | **7 mb/d** (CEO confirmed) | ~2 mb/d to refineries | Up to 5 mb/d | Nearing full capacity "in next couple of days" — Yanbu exports at record | UPGRADED — 7 mb/d confirmed |
| **UAE Habshan-Fujairah** | 1.8 mb/d | ~1.1 mb/d | ~0.7 mb/d | Active; possible damage from Iranian strikes | — |
| **Iraq-Turkey** (Kirkuk→Ceyhan) | 0.9 mb/d | Intermittent | Variable | Iraq shutting Rumaila (storage full) | DOWNGRADED |
| **Iran Jask Terminal** | Limited | Rarely used | Minimal | Loading at Jask | — |
| **Cape of Good Hope** | Unlimited | Increasing | N/A | +2-3 weeks transit | — |

**Key updates:** Ras Tanura refinery (550K bpd) offline from Iranian drone strikes. Houthi Red Sea attacks resumed Feb 28 — risk to Yanbu route. Kuwait and Qatar have ZERO bypass capacity. **Max total bypass: ~8.8 mb/d. Gap vs. 20 mb/d = ~11 mb/d unbridgeable.**

---

## 6. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

| Parameter | Current | Δ |
|-----------|---------|---|
| War risk premium | 1.0% vessel value (7-day renewable) | CONFIRMED — new contracts available |
| VLCC voyage premium | $2-3M per voyage | NEW |
| P&I coverage | CANCELLED (5 major clubs, eff. March 5) | — |
| China P&I | Adopted JWLA-033 war zone list March 8 | NEW |
| US reinsurance | $20B DFC program | — |
| VLCC freight | $423K/day benchmark; $770-800K/day spot | UPGRADED |
| Container rate | ~$4,200/FEU Shanghai→Jebel Ali (+55% MoM) | NEW |

**US tanker escort:** Energy Sec claimed, then deleted post. White House denied. IRGC denied. **No confirmed escort has occurred.**

---

## 7. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

~430 tankers in Iranian trade; 62% falsely flagged; 87% sanctioned. ~300M barrels unsold on shadow tankers at sea. Shadow tankers are the only ships still transiting Hormuz.

**New this cycle:** 14 European nations signed agreement to impede non-compliant shadow fleet. Cameroon pledged to deregister all shadow fleet tankers. MMIA (New Zealand) exposed insuring 1/6 of shadow fleet.

---

## 8. Country Response Matrix

| Country | Posture | Key Actions | Risk | Δ |
|---------|---------|-------------|------|---|
| **US** | Belligerent | $20B reinsurance; escort retracted; considering SPR + sanctions waiver; 7 KIA; school strike probe | Moderate | UPGRADED |
| **Israel** | Belligerent | Under Khoramshahr missile attacks (37th wave) | High | UPGRADED |
| **Iran** | Belligerent | 37 attack waves; 1,300+ dead; FM rejects ceasefire; back-channel inconclusive | Existential | UPGRADED |
| **Saudi Arabia** | Bypass mode | E-W pipeline nearing 7 mb/d; Ras Tanura offline; Yanbu record exports | High | UPGRADED |
| **UAE** | Under threat | Fujairah at 1.1 mb/d; possible damage | High | — |
| **China** | Diplomatic | 55 ships trapped; 2 transited; ceasefire contacts; ~130-day reserves | Moderate | CONFIRMED |
| **Japan** | Emergency | JOGMEC preparing release; refineries requesting action | High | UPGRADED |
| **South Korea** | Emergency | $68.3B fund; price cap; IEA talks | High | UPGRADED |
| **India** | MOST VULNERABLE | ~50 days reserves; 85% import dependency | CRITICAL | CONFIRMED |
| **Pakistan** | Naval ops | Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr | Moderate-High | NEW |
| **Thailand** | Emergency | Suspended petroleum exports | Moderate | NEW |
| **Indonesia** | At risk | Most vulnerable SE Asian economy | Moderate-High | NEW |

---

## 9. Policy & Regulatory Actions (Cycle 3 additions)

| Date | Actor | Action | Δ |
|------|-------|--------|---|
| March 2 | Iran | Ras Tanura drone strikes (550K bpd offline) | NEW |
| March 6 | IRGC | Tugboat sunk assisting Safeen Prestige | NEW |
| March 7 | IRGC | Drone strikes on Prima and Louise P | NEW |
| March 8 | China P&I | Adopted JWLA-033 war zone | NEW |
| March 9 | Pakistan Navy | Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr | NEW |
| March 9 | Trump | Floated Iran oil sanctions waiver | NEW |
| March 10 | Aramco CEO | E-W pipeline to 7 mb/d "in days" | NEW |
| March 10 | US Energy Sec | Escort claim retracted; White House denied | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | IEA | 400M bbl proposal; vote March 12 | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | Japan | JOGMEC directed to prepare; refineries requesting | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | S. Korea | Price cap + IEA talks | UPGRADED |
| March 11 | IRGC | 37th wave — Khoramshahr missiles | NEW |
| March 11 | US | Mehrabad airport bombed; school strike probe | NEW |
| March 11 | 14 EU nations | Shadow fleet enforcement agreement | NEW |

(Full chronological log in cycle 1 report; this table shows cycle 3 additions only.)

---

## 10. Key Metrics Dashboard

| Metric | Value | Trend | Signal |
|--------|-------|-------|--------|
| Conflict day | **Day 12** | → | No ceasefire |
| Iran civilian dead | **1,300+** | ↑ | Mounting |
| US KIA | **7** | ↑ | Political pressure |
| Strait transits/day | **~0-1 commercial** | ↓↓↓ | Closure deepening |
| Brent crude | **$89.45** | ↕ volatile | IEA proposal dampening |
| WTI | **$85.59** | ↕ volatile | IEA proposal dampening |
| VLCC rates | **$423K-800K/day** | ↑↑ ATH | Extreme |
| War risk premium | **1.0%** (7-day) | → | Repriced but available |
| Vessels attacked | **13+** | ↑ | Ongoing |
| Seafarers killed/missing | **7+ killed, 3+ missing** | ↑ | Ongoing |
| IEA SPR release | **400M bbl; vote March 12** | IMMINENT | Decision hours away |
| E-W pipeline | **Nearing 7 mb/d** | ↑↑ | Record |
| Total bypass capacity | **~8.8 mb/d max** | ↑ | Gap ~11 mb/d |
| India reserves | **~50 days** | ↓ critical | Most vulnerable |
| China reserves | **~130 days** | → | Better than prior est. |
| Ships trapped in Gulf | **55 Chinese + 280 bulk** | → | Massive |
| GPS jamming | **1,100+ ships/24hrs** | ↑ | New threat vector |

---

## 11. Convergence Assessment

### What Changed This Cycle

**ESCALATION:**
1. Casualties accelerating — Iran 1,300+ dead; US 7 KIA. Girls' school strike (~175 students) under investigation — political flashpoint.
2. IRGC 37th attack wave with Khoramshahr missiles — heaviest ordnance to date.
3. Strait closure deepening — March 9: 1 outbound transit, 0 inbound. Dry bulk collapse 91%. Force majeures spreading.
4. GPS jamming — 1,100+ ships in 24 hours. New threat dimension.

**STABILIZATION:**
1. Aramco E-W pipeline nearing 7 mb/d — doubles prior spare capacity estimate. Yanbu exports at record.
2. IEA vote tomorrow (March 12) — 400M barrel release has partial G7 backing. Price signal already moderating.
3. Oil stabilizing at ~$89 (down from $120 peak). Market pricing partial resolution.
4. Japan moving unilaterally on SPR release preparation.

**CRITICAL WATCH:**
- **IEA vote March 12** — Approved → 2-4 week lag, immediate price signal. Denied → oil >$100 within days.
- **Girls' school strike probe** — Could reshape US domestic support for war.
- **India's ~50-day reserve clock** — Physical shortages if crisis extends to late April.
- **Houthi Red Sea attacks** — If they target Yanbu-bound traffic, Saudi bypass route compromised. Single biggest risk to bypass strategy.
- **Iran FM ceasefire rejection** — No off-ramp visible.

**Net assessment:** Military/humanitarian escalation vs. partial economic/supply stabilization. These are in tension — political pressure from casualties may force diplomatic off-ramp before supply crisis fully materializes, or escalation could destroy the bypass infrastructure slowly compensating. Houthi threats to Yanbu route are the critical wildcard.

---

## Sources

- [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- [2026 Iran war — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war)
- [Iran war Day 12 — Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-12-of-us-israel-attacks)
- [Tehran says 10,000 civilian sites bombed — Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/11/iran-war-live-tehran-says-us-israel-hit-nearly-10000-civilian-sites)
- [Iran FM rejects ceasefire — NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/irans-foreign-minister-rejects-calls-ceasefire-continue-fighting-rcna262291)
- [Iran reached out to CIA — Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-888816)
- [No one getting through Hormuz — CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-one-not-even-beijing-getting-through-strait-hormuz)
- [Strait closed to most ships — Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/hormuz-tracker-strait-shut-to-almost-all-non-iran-linked-ships)
- [Hormuz disruptions — UNCTAD](https://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-implications-global-trade-and-development)
- [Kamikaze drone boat strike — The War Zone](https://www.twz.com/news-features/iranian-kamikaze-drone-boat-makes-first-successful-strike-of-war)
- [Five ships hit — gCaptain](https://gcaptain.com/strait-of-hormuz-enters-active-crisis-five-ships-hit-traffic-collapses-tanker-markets-brace-for-historic-shock/)
- [Oil steady after IEA proposal — Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/11/oil-prices-steady-after-iea-proposes-record-reserves-release)
- [IEA proposes largest release — Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-release-from-reserves-wsj-says)
- [South Korea in IEA talks — UPI](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/03/11/korea-South-Korea-IEA-release-strategic-oil-reserves/2021773217119/)
- [SPR limitations — CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/business/emergency-oil-release-gas-prices)
- [Japan oil reserve preparation — Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03/08/japan/tokyo-oil-reserve-iran-crisis/)
- [Asia energy crisis — Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/03/05/china-japan-korea-thailand-iran-war-oil-gas-price-shock/)
- [Aramco E-W pipeline — S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/031026-aramcos-east-west-pipeline-to-hit-full-capacity-in-next-couple-of-days-ceo)
- [Aramco catastrophic warning — The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/03/10/aramco-chief-warns-of-catastrophic-hit-to-oil-market-if-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed/)
- [Saudi Red Sea pipeline limits — AGBI](https://www.agbi.com/analysis/oil-and-gas/2026/03/aramco-says-red-sea-pipeline-can-sustain-oil-exports-with-limits/)
- [VLCC rates ATH — CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/middle-east-crisis-iran-us-shipping-oil-tankers-strait-of-hormuz.html)
- [War risk insurance repricing — Caixin](https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-07/war-risk-insurance-returns-to-strait-of-hormuz-at-a-price-102420420.html)
- [Shadow tankers only ships transiting — The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/why-shadow-tankers-are-the-only-ships-still-moving-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-277785)
- [Trump floats sanctions waiver — Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/03/09/trump-iran-war-end-very-soon-oil-sanctions-strait-hormuz-navy-escort/)
- [White House denies escort — Pakistan Today](https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/03/11/white-house-denies-us-navy-has-escorted-commercial-vessels-in-strait-of-hormuz)
- [Pakistan Op Muhafiz-ul-Bahr — Quwa](https://quwa.org/pakistan-navy-news/pakistan-navy-launches-operation-muhafiz-ul-bahr-to-escort-merchant-vessels-amid-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-03-09-2026/)
- [Shadow fleet enforcement — Kharon](https://www.kharon.com/brief/shadow-fleet-iran-news-russia-venezuela-oil-sanctions)
- [Casualties 4,300+ — Hengaw](https://hengaw.net/en/reports-and-statistics-1/2026/03/article-5)
- [US live updates — CNN](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-10-26)
- [Hormuz — EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504)
- [Windward maritime intelligence — March 10](https://windward.ai/blog/march-10-maritime-intelligence-daily/)
- [Navigating 2026 energy crisis — A&M](https://www.alvarezandmarsal.com/thought-leadership/navigating-the-2026-energy-crisis-beyond-the-headlines)