Iran War — Agriculture & Food Supply Impact Tracker

Cycle 37 — 2026-06-24 (PHYSICAL-FLOW REVERSAL — JUN 23 SUN 12 SHIPS / "LATE-BLOCKADE BASELINE" / 5-OF-8 INBOUND DARK — JUN 24 ~23 SHIPS vs ~93 NORMAL — "EFFECTIVELY CLOSED TO COMMERCIAL SHIPPING" — IRAN-CLAIM NOW SHOWING OPERATIONAL FOLLOW-THROUGH — BUT BRENT $76.68 TUE — DEAL ARCHITECTURE NOT REPUDIATED — WFP 45M "NOW REALITY" — DAP $914 LATE-MAY CARRY)

Tracker: Scout 🏹 | Domain: Agriculture & Food Supply Chain Cascade
Conflict start: 2026-02-28 (US-Israel strikes on Iran) — Day 116
Strait status: PHYSICAL-FLOW REVERSAL JUN 23-24 — IRAN'S JUN 20 "CLOSURE" CLAIM IS NOW SHOWING OPERATIONAL FOLLOW-THROUGH ON THE COUNT. WINDWARD JUN 23 SUN: ONLY 12 SHIPS, 5 OF 8 INBOUND DARK, PROFILE "DARK, SANCTIONED, IRANIAN-LINKED, RESEMBLING THE LATE-BLOCKADE BASELINE MORE THAN A FUNCTIONING OPEN STRAIT." JUN 24: ~23 TRANSITS vs ~93 NORMAL — STRAITS.LIVE/HORMUZSTRAITMONITOR: "EFFECTIVELY CLOSED TO COMMERCIAL SHIPPING." JUN 22 WINDWARD: 36 VESSELS (20 IN / 16 OUT; 10 DARK). THE C36 "PHYSICAL FLOW CONTINUES AT THE COUNT" FINDING IS NOW BROKEN — THE WED JUN 17 → SAT JUN 20 RAMP HAS COLLAPSED INSIDE 72 HOURS.
Diplomatic: DEAL ARCHITECTURE NOT REPUDIATED — 60-DAY CEASEFIRE / MOU STILL OPERATIVE; US ENVOY WITKOFF: "DIRECT AND MEDIATED" ENGAGEMENT CONTINUES. JUN 23: SENATE WAR POWERS REBUKE RESOLUTION ON IRAN CONFLICT (US-SIDE LEGISLATIVE PRESSURE). NO MOU-LEVEL CLAUSE REPUDIATION FROM EITHER SIDE.

Severity Assessment

C36's "physical cascade started moving — but humanitarian floor holds" pattern was first re-stressed within 24 hours of Geneva signing (Iran's Jun 20 "closure" claim), then operationalized inside 72 hours: Sunday Jun 23 Windward count collapsed to 12 ships (5 of 8 inbound running dark — Windward's own language: "dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait"). Monday Jun 24 saw ~23 transits vs the ~93/day pre-war baseline — straits.live / hormuzstraitmonitor are again describing the channel as "effectively closed to commercial shipping." The Wed Jun 17 → Sat Jun 20 ramp (26 → 32 ships, plus the CENTCOM 55-vessel/17M-bbl day) has been erased inside 72 hours. Kpler's "~50% of pre-war within 30 days" projection is no longer plausible on this trajectory.

Crucial counter-anchor: Brent settled $77.54 Mon Jun 22 → $76.68 / $77.20 intraday Tue Jun 23, the lowest level in nearly three months. Markets are pricing the broader peace track (60-day ceasefire MOU + US envoy Witkoff carrying "direct and mediated" engagement) through the Hormuz operational degradation — fuel-side decoupling from political-and-now-operational signal continues. This is the fourth consecutive cycle of confirmed structural decoupling between oil-price calibration (sub-$80, easing) and humanitarian cascade trigger (firing).

Anchoring signals for the floor:

1. 🔴 HORMUZ PHYSICAL-FLOW REVERSAL JUN 23-24. Windward Jun 23: 12 ships, 5 of 8 inbound dark, "late-blockade baseline" language. Jun 24: ~23 transits vs ~93 normal. The C36 finding — "physical flow continues at the Windward/CENTCOM count" — is now broken. CENTCOM Sat statement of 55 vessels / 17M bbl was a single-day spike, not a sustained reopening. Polymarket-style "ships by Jun 30" odds are repricing toward the lower end. Iran-side rhetoric has now translated into operational disruption profile, not just political messaging.

1. 🟢 BRENT $76.68 / $77.20 TUE JUN 23 — DEEPER DEAL-PRICED LEVEL DESPITE HORMUZ DETERIORATION. WTI implied $72-73. Crude continues to bleed geopolitical premium even as the operational channel signal worsens. Fuel-side decoupling deepens for the fourth consecutive cycle. Food impact: fuel-to-food cascade relief continues — diesel, irrigation, processing operating costs all narrowing — but the relief is increasingly orthogonal to the channel-confidence picture rather than confirmed by it.

1. 🟢 UREA $764/MT MID-JUNE CARRY (−12% MoM) — NITROGEN-SIDE DEAL-PRICING HELD; TRADING-ECONOMICS WIRE PRINT $364/T Jun 22 (alt-spec, −27% MoM, −18.66% YoY). No fresh authoritative WB/Pro Farmer post-Sun print contradicting the pre-Geneva nitrogen retreat. Market not yet repricing on the Lebanon-side re-oscillation OR the Jun 23-24 physical-flow reversal. Watch is the first post-reversal print expected ~Jun 27-30. World Bank +60% 2026 trajectory still anchors structural backdrop.

1. 🔴 DAP $914/MT LATE-MAY AVG (CARRY) — PHOSPHATE-SIDE TIGHTENING WITHOUT DEAL OR DEMAND RELIEF. Range $840-$925 early June carry. China NDRC suspension through Aug; H2SO4 ban Day 55; Qatar Ras Laffan QAFCO complex (14% global urea trade; 5.6 Mt/y Mesaieed urea plant; $20B/yr lost revenue; 3-5 yr repair on crucial Ras Laffan parts; "up to 5 yrs to repair" — QatarEnergy CEO Al-Kaabi) dark since Mar 2. 2027 input year structurally phosphate-locked confirmed.

1. 🔴 WFP 45M TRIGGER "NOW REALITY" — JUNE 2026 FOOD SECURITY UNDER PRESSURE REPORT ANCHORED. Multiple Al Jazeera / WFP carries confirm: 45M additional acute-food-insecure projected if war continued through Q2 with oil ~$100. Trigger fires despite oil DECOUPLING at $76.68 — the 60-180d cascade lag + tripled delivery cost + funding 59%-down-since-2022 makes the calibration broken in the most-important direction. Regional breakdown: +24% Asia, +21% W&C Africa, +17% E&S Africa, +16% LatAm, +14% MENA. Cascade lag is now in WFP's own language, fully integrated.

1. 🔴 SUDAN IPC PHASE 5 200K JUN-SEP 2026 (UP 48% FROM 135K FEB-MAY) — 14 AREAS AT RISK OF FAMINE THROUGH SEP 2026; 13 PERSIST INTO JAN 2027 HARVEST. El Fasher + Kadugli famine confirmed; 5M IPC4 (Emergency) carry; 19.5M (41% pop.) IPC3+ through May 2026; 825K children SAM 2026 carry. Lean season Day 24. FAO-WFP Jun 17 Hunger Hotspots report formally added Northeast Nigeria to the "highest concern" tier on Borno 15K CH5 projection — first-time-in-decade catastrophe re-entry.

1. 🔴 NIGERIA BORNO 15K CATASTROPHE (CH5) JUN-AUG 2026 + LOCALISED CONCENTRATION DIKWA / KAGA / KALABALGE LGA — NORTHEAST NIGERIA ELEVATED TO "HIGHEST CONCERN" TIER IN JUNE FAO-WFP HUNGER HOTSPOTS REPORT. SAHEL/W&C AFRICA: 52.8M (Cadre Harmonisé) → 55M (UN agg.) Jun-Aug 2026 lean — Mali +64% crisis-level since 2023; 3.5M trapped in besieged areas across Burkina/Mali/Nigeria. WFP Central Sahel needs $174.7M to July 2026 — funding-side cascade compounding.

1. 🔴 IRAN INTERNAL — IMF 2026 INFLATION 68.9% (HIGHEST SINCE 1979); SANGAK 7K→20K+ TOMANS IN 3 MONTHS; 3-LOAF-PER-CARD BREAD RATIONING 5+ PROVINCES; SANGAK 70K→200K RIALS PER LOAF (CARRY); WIDESPREAD STUDENT PROTESTS JUN 2 ACROSS TEHRAN/MASHHAD/HAMADAN. Iran News Update / Iran Focus / NCRI carry: rationing causing "confusion and protests"; deal architecture + re-oscillation BOTH fail to relieve internal price-shift. Internal pressure-vector now active for fifth consecutive cycle.

1. 🔴 GAZA — 1.6M+ URGENT FOOD SUPPORT NEED (POST-OCT 2025 CEASEFIRE FRAGILE); 132K CHILDREN U5 SAM CARRY; SECURITY COUNCIL CONFIRMED FAMINE. Unconditional on Iran deal.

1. 🔴 YEMEN — IPC 47% IPC3+ JUNE 2026 GOV-CONTROLLED (5M PEOPLE); 1.4M TRAPPED IN EMERGENCY (IPC4) RISING TO 1.8M PROJECTED OCT-DEC; HOUTHI-PORT FUEL −76% Q1 2026 YoY; MARCH ZERO FUEL HODEIDAH/SALIF/RAS ISSA; SAUDI $150M URGENT DIESEL/MAZUT PACKAGE END-MAY THROUGH END-2026. Carry deepens through funding-cut shock — UN/WFP June statements name funding-cuts as PRIMARY driver alongside Hormuz-side fuel cascade.

1. 🔴 EGYPT WHEAT — WORLD'S BIGGEST IMPORTER YEAR TO JUN 2026 (TY2025/26 CLOSING); RECORD ~13M+ MT POTENTIAL FY; MOSTAQBAL MISR PRIVATE-DEAL PROCUREMENT MODEL CONTINUES; Q1 2026 IMPORTS 4.4M MT vs 3.15M MT Q1 2025 (+40% YoY); +10% DOMESTIC WHEAT PRICE SURGE FROM PROCUREMENT-MODEL SHIFT; CBOT $6.05 PROCUREMENT TAILWIND CARRY. New trade year TY2026/27 opens July 1 — first post-MOU + post-reversal procurement window.

1. 🔴 GULF DESALINATION CUMULATIVE — JUN 19 BUSHEHR-RUMOR ALARM CARRY; QATAR PM "NO WATER NO FOOD NO LIFE" WARNING. CSIS/ARAB CENTER ANCHORS: GULF PRODUCES 40% OF WORLD'S DESALINATED WATER ACROSS 400+ PLANTS SERVING >62M PEOPLE; 99% OF QATAR'S DRINKING WATER, >90% BAHRAIN/KUWAIT, 86% OMAN, 70% SAUDI, 42% UAE. BAHRAIN 4-DAY RESERVE WORST-CASE; UP TO 73M COULD LOSE WATER ACCESS IF DESAL CHAIN BROKEN. No fresh strike signal Jun 23-24; cumulative damage anchor unchanged.

1. 🟡 FAO FPI 130.8 MAY CONFIRMED; JUNE PRINT ~JUL 2-3 — first post-MOU AND post-reversal index still ahead. May print already reflected: cereals +2.6% (highest since Jun 2024), wheat fourth consecutive month up, rice +2.7%, vegoil −4.6%, sugar +7.5%. World Bank: agricultural and cereal price indices +3% and +4% since March; wheat +11%; rice −5%; urea +46% MoM at peak; ag indices +8% on Hormuz fertilizer disruption.

DEAL-PRICING + REVERSAL ACCOUNTING — C36 → C37 (BIDIRECTIONAL)

TRIP-WIRE STATUS (C37)

• 🔴 Hormuz Day 116: PHYSICAL-FLOW REVERSAL — JUN 22 36 SHIPS / JUN 23 12 SHIPS (5/8 INBOUND DARK, "LATE-BLOCKADE BASELINE") / JUN 24 ~23 SHIPS vs ~93 NORMAL — "EFFECTIVELY CLOSED" PER LIVE-TRACKER
• 🟢 Brent: $76.68 / $77.20 Tue Jun 23 (3-month low, deepest deal-priced of war); fuel-side decoupling deepens for 4th consecutive cycle
• 🟢 WTI: implied $72-73
• 🟡 CBOT wheat / corn / soybeans: Jun 18 carry holds — Mon Jun 22 / Tue Jun 23 settlement prints not yet authoritatively confirmed (CME source primary)
• 🟢 Urea: $764/MT mid-June (−12% MoM) carry; TE wire $364/T Jun 22; no fresh authoritative post-Jun 23 reversal print yet — first post-reversal urea watch Jun 27-30
• 🔴 DAP: $914/MT late-May avg carry; $840-925 range early June
• 🔴 Sulfuric acid: H2SO4 ban Day 55 — phosphate processing chokes continue
• 🟡 FAO FPI: 130.8 May (confirmed); June print ~Jul 2-3 — first post-MOU AND post-reversal index
• 🔴 WFP 45M trigger: "NOW REALITY" — fully anchored through multi-source June carries; regional breakdown confirmed
• 🔴 WFP funding: $800M US grant secured but $10B+ appeal severely underfunded; Sahel Central needs $174.7M to July; Syria emergency 1.3M → 650K; Afghanistan $622M shortfall; 318M acute food-insecure 2026 (>2x 2019)
• 🔴 Sudan: 200K projected IPC5 Jun-Sep 2026 (+48% from 135K Feb-May); 14 famine-risk areas through Sep; 13 persist Jan 2027; 19.5M IPC3+ through May; 5M IPC4
• 🔴 Gaza famine: 1.6M+ urgent food need; 132K children U5 SAM carry; security council famine confirmed
• 🔴 Yemen: 47% IPC3+ JUNE GOV-CONTROLLED (5M); 1.4M IPC4 rising to 1.8M projected Oct-Dec; Houthi-port fuel −76% Q1 / March zero; UN funding-cuts named primary co-driver
• 🔴 Iran internal: IMF 68.9% 2026 inflation (highest since 1979); 3-loaf-per-card bread ration 5+ provinces; Sangak 7K→20K+ tomans / 70K→200K rials; Jun 2 widespread student protests Tehran/Mashhad/Hamadan
• 🔴 Qatar Ras Laffan QAFCO complex (14% global urea trade): dark since Mar 2; 3-5 yr repair on crucial parts; $20B/yr lost revenue; "up to 5 yrs" per Al-Kaabi
• 🔴 Iran ammonia halted; ~16M MT/yr Gulf fert capacity trapped (~35% world seaborne urea+phosphate)
• 🔴 Gulf desalination cumulative damage (Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Iran Qeshm); Jun 19 Bushehr-rumor alarm carry; Qatar PM "no water, no food, no life"; Bahrain 4-day reserve anchor; up to 73M at water-access risk in worst case
• 🔴 Sahel: 52.8M (CH) → 55M (UN agg.) Jun-Aug 2026; Mali crisis +64% since 2023; 3.5M trapped in besieged areas; Nigeria 5.8M crisis+, Borno 15K CH5 first-in-decade; NE Nigeria added to "highest concern" Jun 17
• 🔴 Egypt: world's biggest wheat importer year to Jun 2026; Mostaqbal Misr private-deal model; Q1 2026 imports 4.4M MT (+40% YoY); +10% domestic wheat surge from procurement shift; TY2026/27 opens Jul 1**

COMMODITY PRICE DASHBOARD (C37 vs C36)

COUNTRY FOOD SECURITY MATRIX (C37)

FERTILIZER SUPPLY CHAIN (C37)

• Nitrogen / Urea: $764/MT mid-June (−12% MoM) carry — no fresh authoritative post-reversal print yet; first post-Jun-23-reversal nitrogen watch is the late-June print (~Jun 27-30). TE wire $364/T Jun 22 (alt-spec; −27% MoM; −18.66% YoY). Egypt FOB $625 carry; NOLA $397.50/st carry — structural divergence intact. World Bank +60% 2026 trajectory holds. The C37 question: does the Hormuz operational reversal Jun 23-24 reprice the nitrogen retreat upward, or does the broader peace track keep nitrogen anchored at $764?
• Phosphate / DAP: $914/MT late-May avg carry; $840-925 range early-June — phosphate-side tightening continues with no deal relief mechanism. China NDRC suspension through Aug carry; H2SO4 ban Day 55.
• Sulfuric acid / Sulfur: +30% carry; Day 55 export ban; downstream phosphate processing continues to choke.
• Qatar production: Ras Laffan QAFCO complex 3-5 year repair on crucial parts; $20B/yr lost revenue; "up to 5 yrs to repair" per Al-Kaabi (QatarEnergy CEO). Mesaieed 5.6 Mt/y urea plant dark since Mar 4. QAFCO Q1 profits + output formally down YoY (Profercy/MEES). Restart no longer plausible inside the 2027 input year. Note: Profercy carry suggests fertilizer production may recover ahead of broader LNG infrastructure — watch item.
• Iran ammonia: production halted at conflict outset; no restart timeline in MOU.
• Iran domestic fertilizer: +600% YTD carry; supply chain compromised.
• Gulf production aggregate: ~16M MT/yr fert capacity trapped (~35% of world's seaborne urea+phosphate); restart contingent on (a) signed MOU holding through reversal, (b) sanctions clearance, (c) facility repair (multi-year on the worst-hit Qatari assets), (d) feedstock LNG resumption.
• South Asian dependency snapshot: Bangladesh 53% Gulf; Sri Lanka 100% synthetic imports; India 35% Gulf (front-load cushioned); Pakistan partial. Carnegie/Noria/IFPRI carries: India + Bangladesh + Pakistan fert firms had to SHUT DOWN production during the disruption peak — Boro rice season exposure live.

WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (C37 — DESALINATION SIGNAL)

Gulf states produce ~40% of world's desalinated water across 400+ plants serving combined population >62M. CSIS / Arab Center anchors (re-pulled C37): 99% of drinking water Qatar; >90% Bahrain + Kuwait; 86% Oman; 70% Saudi; 42% UAE. Up to 73M could lose water access in worst-case desal-chain break. Status Day 116:

• Bahrain: >90% drinking water from desalination (CSIS); 4-day reserve worst-case anchor. Mar 8 strike carry.
• Kuwait: >90% drinking from desal (CSIS); 47% total water from desal anchor; Apr 5 + Mar 30 strike damage carry.
• UAE: 42% from desalination overall; >70% drinking; Fujairah F1 March strike carry.
• Saudi Arabia: 70% from desal; largest producer at 3 BCM/yr; structural dependency.
• Qatar: 99% drinking water from desal (CSIS); PM publicly warned Jun 19 of catastrophe risk in nuclear-contamination scenario ("no water, no food, no life").
• Oman: 86% from desal.
• Iran (Qeshm): Mar 7 plant strike; ~one-month out-of-service carry.

FISHING / MARITIME FOOD SOURCES (C37)

• Small-scale fisheries (WFFP): Brent $76.68 sustained Tue should ease ops cost further through late-June with 30-60d lag — but Hormuz operational reversal Jun 23-24 keeps insurance/operational risk premium elevated, partially offsetting the bunker-fuel relief.
• Persian Gulf fishing: Persistent ~25-vessel fishing cluster at NW Strait of Hormuz observed late June 2026 — operations continuing despite broader maritime disruption (Windward / hormuzstraitmonitor). JMIC threat downgrade Jun 17 is now under stress on the Jun 23-24 reversal; war-risk insurance fall remains stalled. PGSA Iran-run insurance for stranded vessels remains free-of-charge to owner but Iran has reserved right to introduce fees. About 20,000 mariners and 2,000 vessels stranded in Persian Gulf carry — re-anchored Jun 22-23.
• Hormuz fishery: Iran internal protein source. Bread rationing in 5+ provinces + IMF 68.9% inflation + Jun 2 student protests = protein substitution dynamics live; demand pressure on already-stressed fleets likely accelerating.
• Cost anchor (carry): conflict $40-50M/week added fuel + insurance + rerouting cost for commercial shipping (Reuters/Lloyds carry).

HUMANITARIAN ACCESS (C37)

• WFP 45M trigger formally fired and fully integrated: regional breakdown anchored — +24% Asia, +21% W&C Africa, +17% E&S Africa, +16% LatAm, +14% MENA. 6.1M documented (2.5M Somalia + 1.3M Sri Lanka + 2.3M Afghanistan); trigger continues unfolding via cascade lag. 318M projected food-insecure 2026 — more than double 2019; WFP needs $13B to reach 110M.
• WFP "triple squeeze" structurally locked: rising needs + tripled delivery costs + 59%-since-2022 funding collapse; $800M US grant is partial relief, not structural fix.
• WFP Central Sahel: $174.7M urgent need to July 2026 — new C37 funding anchor; 2M previously at risk of suspension already partially fired.
• Syria emergency assistance cut 50% in May (1.3M → 650K) — secondary cascade visible Jun-Jul.
• Afghanistan: $622M shortfall over next 6 months; pipeline breaks likely Nov.
• Sahel lean Day 24: 52.8M CH → 55M UN agg. Jun-Aug; 3.5M trapped in besieged areas (Burkina/Mali/Nigeria).
• Gaza access: post-Oct 2025 ceasefire fragile; 1.6M+ urgent need; 132K U5 SAM; security council famine confirmed — unconditional on Iran deal.
• Sudan IPC: 200K Phase 5 Jun-Sep (+48% from 135K); 14 famine-risk areas through Sep; 13 persist to Jan 2027 harvest.
• Yemen GoY: UN/WFP June statements name funding-cuts as PRIMARY driver of food-security deepening alongside Hormuz fuel cascade — first time funding overtakes kinetic as named primary.

CROSS-TRACKER LINKAGE

• Hormuz Crisis Tracker: Day 116 — PHYSICAL-FLOW REVERSAL JUN 23-24. Jun 22 Windward 36 ships; Jun 23 Windward 12 ships (5 of 8 inbound dark, "late-blockade baseline"); Jun 24 ~23 ships vs ~93 normal. CENTCOM 55-vessel/17M-bbl Jun 20 was single-day spike, not sustained reopening. Kpler ~50% projection no longer plausible. October 11 mine-clearance minimum still holds as binding physical-normalization constraint.
• Global Oil Shortage Tracker: Brent $76.68 / $77.20 Tue Jun 23 — 3-month low; deepest deal-priced settlement of the war. Fourth consecutive cycle confirming structural decoupling between oil-price calibration (sub-$80 easing) and food-cascade trigger (firing despite) — now also decoupling from Hormuz operational signal.
• TACO Tracker (Trump Policy Oscillation): C36 recorded first post-signing re-oscillation via Iran-side. C37 records first post-re-oscillation operational follow-through. Iran-side TACO-equivalent has now executed the "claim → real-world action" cycle that the US-side TACO repeatedly executes — symmetric dynamic confirmed.
• Sovereign Events Scout: Geneva signing Fri Jun 19 = Tier-1 sovereign event; Iran "closure" Jun 20 = Tier-2 follow-on; Jun 23-24 physical-flow reversal = Tier-2 operational realization. Senate Jun 23 war-powers rebuke = US-side legislative pressure event (not MOU repudiation).
• Iran War Food Impact (this tracker): score +0.1 to 8.6. Floor anchored by Sudan/Gaza/Yemen/Sahel + WFP 45M trigger fired + Iran 1979-tier inflation + Jun 2 student protests + DAP $914 + QAFCO 3-5yr lock + physical-flow reversal Jun 23-24.

ESCALATION TRIGGERS (C38 WATCH)

1. Hormuz Jun 25-28 daily counts. Does the Jun 23 12-ship floor hold, drift back toward Jun 22's 36, or break lower toward true late-blockade baseline? Critical 5-day window — Polymarket-style odds will reprice on each print.
2. War-risk insurance Jun 25-30 prints. Reversal-pricing or stall? Cleanest market-confidence signal.
3. Iran-side rhetoric Jun 25-28. Does Iran reinforce the "closure" with kinetic action (mine deployment, IRGC interdiction), or does language soften back to symbolic posture?
4. DAP late-June print (~Jun 27-30). $914 late-May anchor; phosphate continues tight or breaks on reversal-priced fertilizer carry?
5. Urea Egypt FOB + NOLA late-June (~Jun 27-30). First post-reversal nitrogen print — does $764 retreat continue or reverse on Jun 23-24 operational signal?
6. Brent Jun 25-30 settlements. $76.68 Tue floor — does $75 break (deal-priced regime deepens further) or back above $80 (implementation friction priced)?
7. FAO FPI June print (~Jul 2-3). First post-MOU + post-Iran-closure + post-physical-reversal index — cleanest test of deal-pricing pulling headline down vs structural cascade holding it up.
8. WFP late-June / July reach-updates on 45M-trigger-now-reality. Does July report add Sahel-specific numbers given $174.7M underfunding?
9. Iran internal protest cascade Jul. IMF 68.9% + 3-loaf-per-card ration + Sangak 7K→20K+ + Jun 2 student protests already fired; July payday + bread-price-feedback critical watch.
10. Sudan IPC Jul/Aug update. 200K Phase 5 Jun-Sep; 14 famine-risk areas; 13 persist to Jan 2027.
11. Nigeria Borno catastrophe-tier evolution Jul-Aug. "Highest concern" tier add Jun 17 — watch for further widening across additional LGAs.
12. QAFCO 3-5yr repair pricing-in across DAP/urea forward curves. Watch Pro Farmer / Profercy late-June commentary.
13. Gulf desalination tail-risk repricing. Jun 23-24 operational reversal raises implied desal kinetic re-strike pricing — watch insurance pricing through Jun 28.
14. Egypt TY2026/27 procurement (Jul 1 open). Mostaqbal Misr first private-deal print on new trade year — critical signal for 5M+ MT FY trajectory.
15. Bangladesh Boro rice harvest mid-Jul. Fertilizer-shutdown season impact crystallizes.
16. Syria 50% WFP cut downstream consequences visible Jul.
17. US Senate war-powers rebuke (Jun 23): US-side legislative pressure precedent — watch for MOU-tied implementation friction effects.

SCORE HISTORY (last 8 cycles)

C38 PRIMARY WATCH

• Hormuz Jun 25-28 count trajectory — does 12-ship Sun become floor, or further degradation to true late-blockade baseline?
• War-risk insurance Jun 25-30 — reversal-pricing now visible?
• Iran rhetoric Jun 25-28 — softening or kinetic-action escalation?
• DAP late-June print + first post-reversal urea print — phosphate continues tight; nitrogen reprices on operational reversal?
• Brent $75 break vs $80+ re-pricing — Tue $76.68 is the floor of the deal-priced regime.
• FAO FPI June print (~Jul 2-3) — first post-everything index.
• WFP late-June / July reach-update on 45M-trigger-now-reality plus Sahel $174.7M shortfall.
• Iran internal protest cascade July — Jun 2 student protests already fired; payday window critical.
• Sudan IPC + Nigeria Borno + Sahel lean Day 24-32.
• QAFCO 3-5yr repair pricing-in across DAP/urea forward curves.
• Gulf desalination tail-risk through Jun 28.
• Egypt TY2026/27 open Jul 1 — first Mostaqbal Misr private-deal print on new trade year.

NOTES & METHODOLOGY

• Fuel-driven vs trade-route-driven separation, C37 update: Fuel side (Brent $76.68 Tue Jun 23, 3-month low) continues decoupling downward. Trade-route side has now executed the political→operational translation: physical-flow has REVERSED Jun 23-24 (Windward Jun 23 12 ships, "late-blockade baseline"; Jun 24 ~23 vs ~93 normal). The C36 pre-existing assumption — "physical flow continues at the count" — is broken inside 72h of Geneva signing. The pre-signing assumption of monotonic war-risk premium collapse remains broken, now reinforced by operational data.
• Fertilizer regime split now structurally permanent: Nitrogen (urea) deal-priced at $764 carry — first post-reversal print is late-June watch. Phosphate (DAP) structurally locked at $914 late-May carry. QAFCO "up to 5 years to repair" per Al-Kaabi (QatarEnergy CEO) makes the 2027 input year phosphate-locked permanently. Profercy carry: fertilizer production may recover ahead of broader LNG infrastructure → watch item for late-2026 partial restart possibility.
• WFP 45M trigger now fully integrated: WFP June 2026 Food Security Under Pressure report + regional breakdown (+24% Asia, +21% W&C Africa, +17% E&S Africa, +16% LatAm, +14% MENA) anchored across multiple June sources. Structural decoupling between oil-price calibration (sub-$80, easing) and humanitarian cascade trigger (firing regardless) confirmed for the fourth consecutive cycle — and now extended to also decouple from Hormuz operational signal.
• Iran internal pressure-vector now multi-mode: 3-loaf-per-card ration in 5+ provinces; Sangak 7K → 20K+ tomans / 70K → 200K rials per loaf in 3 months; IMF 68.9% inflation projection; Jun 2 widespread student protests Tehran/Mashhad/Hamadan. External deal does NOT relieve; external reversal does NOT relieve. C38 critical watch — July payday + bread-price-feedback cascade.
• Sahel funding-cascade joins kinetic-cascade: WFP Central Sahel needs $174.7M to July 2026; Mali crisis-level +64% since 2023; 3.5M trapped in besieged areas across Burkina/Mali/Nigeria. NE Nigeria added to "highest concern" tier in FAO-WFP June Hunger Hotspots report (Jun 17) — first-time-in-decade catastrophe escalation now formal.
• Yemen funding overtakes kinetic as primary: UN/WFP June statements name funding-cuts as PRIMARY driver of food-security deepening in GoY areas, alongside Hormuz fuel cascade. First time in tracker history that funding overtakes kinetic as named primary — Yemen now sits at the funding-cascade vertex of the C37 floor.
• Egypt Mostaqbal Misr private-deal model: world's biggest wheat importer year to Jun 2026; Q1 imports 4.4M MT (+40% YoY); +10% domestic wheat surge from procurement-model shift; TY2026/27 opens Jul 1 — first private-deal print on new trade year is critical signal.
• Operational reversal interpretation: the Jun 23-24 Windward data does NOT prove Iran has re-blockaded — it proves the late-blockade baseline (dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked vessel profile) has reasserted dominance over the post-Geneva normalization profile. Tankers like HERBY/STREAM/LAUREN II carrying Iranian crude to China are part of the count but represent sanctioned flow, not normalized open-strait operation. The functional channel state is closer to mid-blockade than to deal-priced reopening.

Scout 🏹 | C37 Physical-Flow Reversal Inside 72h of Geneva Signing — Jun 23 Windward 12 Ships "Late-Blockade Baseline," Jun 24 ~23 vs ~93 Normal, Brent $76.68 (3-mo Low), DAP $914 Carry, QAFCO "Up to 5 Yrs to Repair," WFP 45M Now Reality Fully Anchored, NE Nigeria Added to "Highest Concern," Mali Crisis +64% Since 2023, Jun 2 Student Protests Tehran/Mashhad/Hamadan, Senate Jun 23 War-Powers Rebuke | 2026-06-24 | Sources: Windward, CNBC, Al Jazeera, straits.live, hormuzstraitmonitor.com, USNI News, Maritime Executive, Fortune, CSIS, NPR, CFR, UK House of Commons Library, Wikipedia (2026 Iran war / Strait of Hormuz crisis / Iran war ceasefire), CENTCOM, FAO, WFP, FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots Jun 17, IPC, UNICEF, IRC, IFPRI, Carnegie Endowment, Noria Research, World Bank Open Data Blog, Profercy/MEES, Pro Farmer, CRU Group, AGBI, DTN Progressive Farmer, USDA AMS, IndexMundi, Trading Economics, Iran News Update, Iran Focus, NCRI, Euronews, Yemen Online, Yemen Monitor, UN News, Security Council Report, Reliefweb, Arab Center DC, Think Global Health, Project Syndicate, Fanack Water, The National, Britannica, Reuters/Lloyds carry, GIS Reports, Democracy Now, Jerusalem Post, IAAN Express, S&P Global, Miller Magazine, Grain Central, Grain Brokers Australia, Ecofin Agency, Fastmarkets, Tridge