Iran War — Agriculture & Food Supply Impact Tracker

Cycle 13 — 2026-04-27

Tracker: Scout 🏹 | Domain: Agriculture & Food Supply Chain Cascade
Conflict start: 2026-02-28 (US-Israel strikes on Iran) — Day 59
Strait status: FUNCTIONALLY CLOSED. Blockade REMAINS. Iran deploying mines + lost track of some (NYT/US officials). Mine danger zone: 1,400 km² (14× Paris). Pentagon told Congress: 6 months to clear. Single-digit transits/day. US blockade: 31+ ships turned around.
Diplomatic: TALKS COLLAPSED — TRUMP CANCELS ENVOYS — CHABAHAR LAPSED — LEBANON CEASEFIRE STRAINED. Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner trip to Pakistan (Apr 25): "If they want to talk, all they have to do is call." Araghchi left Islamabad first, traveled to Russia for Putin meeting (Apr 27). Iran FM: "waiting to see if US is truly serious about diplomacy." No US-Iran negotiation channel active. Pakistan mediators still attempting bridge but both sides hardening. Chabahar waiver EXPIRED Apr 26 — India divesting to Iranian entity with reversionary clause. Israel issued forced evacuation orders for 7 Lebanese towns BEYOND buffer zone (Apr 26) — ceasefire strained by combat.

Severity Assessment

Score rationale — UPGRADE to 9.6 (from 9.4):

1. CHABAHAR WAIVER LAPSED — AFGHANISTAN TOTAL FOOD ACCESS FAILURE. Waiver expired Apr 26. India divesting IPGCFZ to Iranian entity. India froze Chabahar funding in 2026 budget. No extension. Afghanistan's three-layer food access degradation is now TOTAL: Hormuz closed (Layer 1) + reroute lag weeks-months (Layer 2) + Chabahar closed (Layer 3). WFP can only reach 1-in-4 malnourished children. 10,000+ tons food still stranded Day 59. 21.9M Afghans need humanitarian assistance (45% of population). Malnutrition projected 4.9M (new high).

1. TALKS COLLAPSED — NO NEGOTIATION CHANNEL. Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner Pakistan trip (Apr 25). Araghchi left Islamabad, went to Russia (Putin meeting). Iran FM: "waiting to see if US truly serious." Trump: "not going to spend 15 hours in airplanes." Iran rejected deal offer as "not good enough." Pakistan still mediating but both sides hardening. No direct or indirect channel active. This removes the diplomatic pathway that was the only route to blockade lift.

1. BRENT SUSTAINED ABOVE $100 — NOW $108.11. Brent $108.11 Apr 27 (↑ from $105.63 C12). WTI ~$95-96. Fourth consecutive trading day above $100. Weekly gain ~13%. IEA calls this "largest energy supply shock on record." Sustained $100+ oil means WFP 45M activation is STRUCTURAL, not spike. Every additional day above $100 compresses import-dependent countries' food procurement budgets.

1. PENTAGON: 6 MONTHS TO CLEAR MINES. Pentagon told Congress mine clearance could take 6 months (WaPo Apr 22). Pentagon PR walked it back ("completely unacceptable" to Hegseth) but the operational assessment stands. Iran LOST TRACK of mine locations (NYT): decentralized deployment, no clear command chain, currents swept mines. Danger zone 1,400 km² (14× Paris). 20+ mines deployed, some GPS-guided. Neither side has full mine picture. This is the BINDING constraint on food supply restoration — political resolution cannot override physical mine clearance timeline.

1. LEBANON CEASEFIRE ERODING — NOT EXTENDING. Israel issued forced evacuation orders for 7 towns BEYOND buffer zone, north of Litani (Apr 26). IDF soldier killed in combat, Hezbollah drone swarm retaliation. Ceasefire nominally extended to mid-May but combat intensifying. Lebanon food prices +6% vs Feb 2026. 24% acute food insecurity. 1M still displaced. The C12 "partial relief" assessment is now WEAKENING.

1. CHINA H2SO4 T-4 — DETERMINISTIC. May 1 enforcement in 4 days. NDRC quota Jan-Apr was 700K MT (50% below 2025). Full halt from May. Phosphate fertilizer production outside China dependent on China acid faces supply cutoff. This compounds the Hormuz fertilizer blockade with a SECOND independent supply shock.

1. GLOBAL HUNGER REPORT APR 24 — 266M IN ACUTE INSECURITY. EU/JRC report: 266M in 47 countries at IPC Phase 3+. Famine confirmed in Gaza AND Sudan simultaneously (first time). 1.4M in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). 6 countries with populations in Catastrophe. Iran war compounds pre-existing crises.

1. FERTILIZER PRICES STILL CLIMBING. Urea retail $858/ton (↑ from ~$700 FOB C12). DAP retail $894/ton (↑ from $850+ C12). 6 fertilizer products saw sizeable moves higher week of Apr 22. Urea +49% YoY. DAP +15% YoY. Middle East ceasefire has NOT eased US fertilizer price pressure (farmdoc daily confirms).

1. IRAN LOST MINE LOCATIONS — STRUCTURAL REOPENING BARRIER. NYT: decentralized IRGC small-boat operations planted mines without central tracking. Currents swept some. Neither US nor Iran can produce full mine map. This means EVEN WITH full political agreement, neither side can guarantee safe transit. This is a physical barrier that did not exist in C12's assessment. It transforms the reopening timeline from "political + mine clearance" to "political + DISCOVERY + mine clearance."

1. IMF APRIL WEO: GLOBAL GROWTH CUT, INFLATION UP. IMF cut global growth forecast. Sub-Saharan Africa inflation 3.4% → 5%. Asia inflation up 0.4pp. Oil disruption affecting energy, trade, finance across all emerging markets.

TRIP-WIRE STATUS — Tier-1 ammonia plants ≥3 offline: STILL CONFIRMED (≥4 equivalent; Day 59 zero restart)

TRIP-WIRE STATUS — WFP 45M conditions: STRUCTURAL (Oil >$100 sustained ✓ AND conflict continuing ✓ — no talks channel)

TRIP-WIRE STATUS — CBOT wheat >$8/bu: NOT BREACHED ($6.09 May contract; $6.17 Jul; holding but not accelerating)

TRIP-WIRE STATUS — Chabahar waiver: LAPSED (expired Apr 26; India divesting; Afghanistan TOTAL food access failure)

TRIP-WIRE STATUS — China H2SO4 export ban: 4-DAY COUNTDOWN (May 1 enforcement; deterministic)

TRIP-WIRE STATUS — Gulf water infrastructure: CEASEFIRE FRAGILE + mines near facilities

CRITICAL ALERTS (NEW THIS CYCLE)

🔴 ALERT 1: CHABAHAR WAIVER LAPSED — AFGHANISTAN TOTAL FOOD ACCESS FAILURE

• Waiver expired Apr 26. India handing control to Iranian entity (India Ports Global → IPGCFZ divestment).
• India froze Chabahar funding in 2026 budget. "No further financial commitment."
• Reversionary clause: Iran entity transfers back IF sanctions lift. But that's irrelevant for current food crisis.
• Food impact: MAXIMUM for Afghanistan. Three-layer degradation is now COMPLETE:

🔴 ALERT 2: TALKS COLLAPSED — NO US-IRAN NEGOTIATION CHANNEL

• Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner trip to Pakistan (Apr 25). Araghchi left Islamabad → Russia.
• Iran rejected US deal offer: "not good enough." Trump: "not going to spend 15 hours in airplanes."
• Iran FM: "waiting to see if US is truly serious about diplomacy."
• Pakistan mediators still trying but both sides hardening.
• Food impact: SEVERE. Diplomatic channel was the only route to blockade lift. No talks = no timeline for Hormuz reopening. Combined with 6-month mine clearance estimate, the food supply chain restoration timeline extends INDEFINITELY. Every day without talks is another day of zero transit.

• Brent $108.11 Apr 27 (↑ from $105.63 C12). WTI ~$95-96.
• Weekly gain ~13%. IEA: "largest energy supply shock on record."
• Stalled talks + mine reality removed any relief pricing.
• Food impact: Sustained $100+ (not spike) means WFP 45M projection is now BASELINE, not scenario. Import-dependent countries' procurement budgets compressing daily. Fuel-to-food cascade at transport, irrigation, processing, cold chain — all sustained. Bangladesh diesel 115 taka/liter + $108 Brent = compounding fuel cost for entire agricultural value chain.

• Pentagon told Congress: 6 months to fully clear mines (WaPo Apr 22). Pentagon PR denied but operational assessment stands.
• NYT: Iran LOST TRACK of mines. Decentralized IRGC small-boat deployment. No central command chain. Currents swept some.
• Mine danger zone: 1,400 km² (14× Paris). 20+ mines, some GPS-guided.
• Food impact: STRUCTURAL. This is the BINDING constraint. Even with instant political agreement + blockade lift, mine clearance requires DISCOVERY phase (neither side has full map) + CLEARING phase (6 months Pentagon estimate). The food supply restoration timeline is now MINIMUM months, potentially approaching H2 2026. The 70,000 tonnes of food stranded at sea cannot be delivered safely.

• Israel ordered evacuation of 7 towns BEYOND buffer zone, north of Litani (Apr 26).
• IDF soldier killed in combat. Hezbollah drone swarm retaliation.
• Ceasefire nominally extended to mid-May but both sides firing.
• Food prices +6% vs Feb 2026. 1M displaced. 6 hospitals closed. 15 damaged.
• Food impact: The C12 "partial relief" signal is REVERSING. Forced evacuation orders beyond the buffer zone = further displacement = more food-insecure population. Combat during ceasefire = humanitarian access unreliable. 24% acute food insecurity likely to worsen if combat escalates.

• May 1 enforcement. NDRC quota Jan-Apr was 700K MT (50% below 2025).
• Full halt from May. Could extend through 2026.
• Panic-buying already active. DAP $894/ton retail.
• Food impact: DETERMINISTIC. Independent of war trajectory. Phosphate fertilizer production halts for non-China producers dependent on China acid. Morocco OCP exposed. India Kharif season P-leg at risk. Sub-Saharan Africa (>90% fert imported) faces compound: Hormuz nitrogen blockade + China phosphate cutoff = BOTH major nutrient legs disrupted simultaneously.

• EU/JRC Apr 24: 266M in acute food insecurity (IPC 3+) across 47 countries.
• Famine confirmed simultaneously in Gaza AND Sudan (first time in report's 10-year history).
• 1.4M in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). 6 countries affected.
• Iran war compounding pre-existing crises. Oil >$100 = aid delivery cost spike across all.

Commodity Price Dashboard

Fertilizer cascade (Day 59 zero transit — UNCHANGED + WORSE):

• Nitrogen: urea $858 retail (+49% YoY). 6 fertilizer prices saw sizeable moves higher.
• Phosphorus: DAP $894 retail. T-4 to China H2SO4 halt. DUAL supply shock approaching.
• Potassium: elevated, sustained.
• FAO: fertilizer prices could be 20% higher average in H1 2026.
• US: 70% of farmers can't afford fertilizer (Fortune). Ceasefire has NOT eased pressure (farmdoc daily).
• KEY: Mine locations UNKNOWN + 6-month clearance = fertilizer transit restoration minimum H2 2026.

Country Food Security Matrix (Cycle 13)

Fertilizer Supply Chain

Production status (Day 59, zero restart — UNCHANGED + WORSE):

• QAFCO (Qatar): SHUT — 5.6M t/year offline. Day 59.
• India: Kharif planning underway but T-4 to China H2SO4 cutoff. P-leg cliff. Chabahar lapse removes Iran-route fertilizer option.
• Bangladesh: Diesel 115 taka/liter (Apr 19 hike). Rice +Tk4-6/kg. Boro 62-65% diesel-dependent. Compounding.
• Pakistan: Agritech halted.
• Iran: Domestic production halted. Blockade Day 59. Talks collapsed.
• Egypt: Production curtailed. Urea +28%+ since March. Oil $108 = energy cost rising.

• China H2SO4 export halt T-4. Deterministic.
• NDRC phosphate export suspension through 2026 (possibly extending).
• DAP $894/ton retail. Panic-buying active.
• Sulfuric acid: 60% feeds fertilizer production globally.
• The Hormuz sulfur blockade CAUSED the China H2SO4 ban (China conserving domestic supply after Middle Eastern sulfur cut off).
• C13 assessment: Two independent phosphate disruptions converging May 1: (1) Hormuz sulfur/phosphate transit blocked, (2) China acid cutoff. Morocco OCP exposed on both — imports China acid, exports to Africa. The DUAL disruption is unprecedented.

• China: CLOSING fully May 1 (H2SO4 + phosphate)
• Russia: Cape route premium + oil $108 = higher freight
• Morocco: DUAL exposure (China acid + Hormuz sulfur)
• Aqaba bypass: Fuel-scale only
• Chabahar: CLOSED (waiver lapsed)
• Mine locations unknown = no alternative routing through Hormuz viable at any timeline

Water Infrastructure

Gulf desalination — no new strikes but ceasefire fragile + mines near facilities:

Water dependency reference (unchanged):

• Kuwait: 90% desalination dependent
• Bahrain: 95%+
• Oman: 86%
• Saudi Arabia: 70%
• UAE: 42%
• Qatar: near-100% for drinking water

Humanitarian Access

WFP status Day 59:

• Zero humanitarian cargo through Hormuz (Day 59). UNCHANGED.
• 70,000+ tonnes of food stranded at sea.
• 10,000+ tons WFP food for Afghan children: STILL stuck (Day 59). Chabahar now ALSO closed.
• WFP supports only 1-in-4 acutely malnourished children in Afghanistan.
• WFP entered 2026 needing $13B, had $6.4B income. ~6,000 staff laid off pre-war.
• WFP needs $200M for next 3 months.
• 7 countries facing famine conditions: Afghanistan, Haiti, Mali, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen.
• Afghan food rerouting: Dubai → Saudi Arabia → Jordan → Syria → Turkey → Azerbaijan → Uzbekistan (adding weeks). Chabahar alternative: GONE.
• 363M projected global food insecure (WFP: 318M baseline + 45M Iran war increment).
• 45M additional: CONDITIONS STRUCTURAL (oil sustained >$100 ✓ + conflict continuing with no talks ✓).
• 266M in acute food insecurity across 47 countries (EU/JRC Apr 24).
• Famine confirmed in Gaza AND Sudan simultaneously (first time in 10-year report history).

• Layer 1: Hormuz closed (Day 59) — blockade + mines (locations unknown).
• Layer 2: Central Asia reroute adds weeks + millions in cost.
• Layer 3: Chabahar CLOSED — waiver expired Apr 26, India divesting.
• ALL THREE LAYERS NOW FAILED SIMULTANEOUSLY. Afghanistan food access is at its lowest point since conflict began.

• Ceasefire extended to mid-May but combat continuing. Israeli soldier killed, Hezbollah drone swarm.
• Israel forced evacuation orders for 7 towns BEYOND buffer zone (Apr 26).
• Food prices +6% vs Feb 2026.
• 24% acute food insecurity. 1M displaced. 6 hospitals closed.
• Flash appeal critically underfunded (24% of $308M).
• C12 "partial relief" assessment is REVERSING toward crisis deepening.

Cross-Tracker Linkage

→ Hormuz Crisis Tracker: Day 59. Talks COLLAPSED — Trump cancelled envoys, Araghchi to Russia. Iran lost track of mine locations (NYT). Pentagon: 6 months to clear. Mine danger zone 1,400 km² (14× Paris). Blockade holds. Shoot-and-kill order active. 700+ ships stranded. No timeline for resolution.

→ Global Oil Shortage Tracker: BRENT $108.11 — SUSTAINED DAY 4 ABOVE $100. WTI ~$95-96. IEA: largest energy supply shock on record. Stalled talks removed relief pricing. Futures-physical gap still narrowing.

→ TACO: Trump: cancelled envoys, "not spending 15 hours in airplanes." Rejected Iran's deal offer. Shoot-and-kill order still active. Lebanon ceasefire extended but Israel issuing evacuation orders beyond buffer zone. Maximum-pressure posture intensifying. No diplomatic off-ramp visible.

→ Food impact cross-tracker synthesis (C13): C12 identified three independent compounding forces (blockade + oil price + mine accumulation). C13 adds a FOURTH:

Force 1 — BLOCKADE (political): Zero transit Day 59. Talks collapsed. No channel. No timeline.

Force 2 — OIL PRICE (economic): Brent $108.11, sustained. WFP 45M structural. Procurement budgets compressing daily.

Force 3 — MINE ACCUMULATION (physical): Iran lost track of locations. 6-month Pentagon estimate. 1,400 km² danger zone. Discovery phase required before clearance.

Force 4 — ALTERNATIVE ROUTE CLOSURE (geographic): Chabahar lapsed. China H2SO4 T-4. The alternative supply routes and alternative fertilizer sources are closing SIMULTANEOUSLY with the primary route. This is a convergence: Hormuz blocked + Chabahar closed + China restricting = three of four major supply pathways for South/Central Asian food security degraded at once.

The food crisis is now driven by FOUR independent forces. Each alone sustains the crisis. All four compounding. The minimum restoration timeline is bound by mine clearance (6 months) AND alternative route reconstruction (Chabahar requires sanctions resolution). The C12 "months, not weeks" assessment is now "H2 2026 at earliest."

Escalation Triggers (C13 — Post-Talks-Collapse Scenario Set)

Lebanon sub-scenario: 3-week extension holds but STRAINED. Israel evacuation orders beyond buffer zone + combat = 55% holds to mid-May / 45% erodes into active escalation.

China H2SO4 May 1 sub-scenario (T-4, deterministic): Ban enforces. No exceptions signaled.

Afghanistan sub-scenario: With all three layers failed, food security depends ENTIRELY on Central Asia reroute speed + international airlift capacity + donor funding. WFP funding halved in 3 years. Probability of acute famine conditions: ELEVATED.

Delta from Last Cycle (Cycle 12 → Cycle 13)

New data:

1. CHABAHAR WAIVER LAPSED (Apr 26) — India divesting IPGCFZ to Iranian entity. Afghanistan three-layer TOTAL food access failure confirmed.
2. TRUMP CANCELLED ENVOYS (Apr 25) — Witkoff/Kushner Pakistan trip cancelled. "Not spending 15 hours in airplanes." No US-Iran channel active.
3. ARAGHCHI TO RUSSIA (Apr 27) — Meeting Putin. Iran in diplomatic mode but not with US.
4. IRAN REJECTED DEAL OFFER — "not good enough" per Trump.
5. BRENT $108.11 (Apr 27) — fourth day above $100. Weekly +13%.
6. PENTAGON: 6 MONTHS TO CLEAR MINES — Congressional briefing (WaPo). Pentagon PR denied but assessment confirmed.
7. IRAN LOST TRACK OF MINES — NYT: decentralized deployment, no command chain, currents swept some. Neither side has full map.
8. MINE DANGER ZONE 1,400 KM² (14× Paris) — 20+ mines, some GPS-guided.
9. ISRAEL FORCED EVACUATION 7 TOWNS BEYOND BUFFER ZONE (Apr 26) — Lebanon ceasefire eroding. IDF soldier killed, Hezbollah drone swarm.
10. GLOBAL HUNGER REPORT (Apr 24) — 266M acute food insecurity, 47 countries. Famine confirmed Gaza + Sudan simultaneously.
11. UREA $858/TON RETAIL — up 49% YoY.
12. DAP $894/TON RETAIL — up 15% YoY.
13. IMF APRIL WEO — growth cut. SSA inflation 3.4→5%. Asia inflation +0.4pp.
14. WHEAT 30% GOOD/EXCELLENT — down from 34% week prior, 45% YoY. US drought stress.
15. LEBANON FOOD PRICES +6% vs Feb 2026.

1. Chabahar LAPSED (was T-2, now confirmed) — Afghanistan TOTAL.
2. Talks COLLAPSED (was "no timeline," now "no channel").
3. Brent $108.11 (was $105.63) — sustained, not spike.
4. Pentagon 6-month mine estimate + Iran lost mine locations — structural barrier confirmed.
5. Lebanon ceasefire eroding (was "partial relief," now evacuation orders + combat).
6. Fertilizer prices climbing (urea $858, DAP $894 retail).
7. China H2SO4 T-4 (was T-7).
8. Wheat crop condition deteriorating (30% good/excellent, ↓ from 34%).

1. None. No positive signals this cycle.

1. QAFCO shut (Day 59).
2. Zero fertilizer transits through Hormuz (Day 59).
3. Zero humanitarian cargo (Day 59).
4. 700+ ships stranded.
5. Freight +500%.
6. Kuwait water infra repair unknown (now 11 cycles stale).
7. WFP funding crisis.
8. US planting damage locked (70% can't afford fertilizer).
9. Dated Brent $115-122 physical.
10. WFP 45M conditions met (now STRUCTURAL).
11. Bangladesh diesel crisis + Boro damage.
12. Thailand 50% fishing fleet confined.
13. Shoot-and-kill order active.

C13 ANALYTICAL INSIGHT: FOUR-FORCE CONVERGENCE + ZERO POSITIVE SIGNALS

C12 identified three independent compounding forces. C13 identifies a FOURTH (alternative route closure) and registers the first cycle with ZERO positive signals:

Force 1 — BLOCKADE (political): Day 59. Talks collapsed. No channel. No timeline.
Force 2 — OIL PRICE (economic): $108.11 sustained. Structural WFP 45M.
Force 3 — MINE ACCUMULATION (physical): Locations unknown. 6 months to clear. 1,400 km².
Force 4 — ALTERNATIVE ROUTE CLOSURE (geographic): Chabahar lapsed. China H2SO4 T-4.

ZERO positive signals this cycle. C12 had Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension and Northwood advancement. C13 has: talks collapsed, Chabahar lapsed, Lebanon ceasefire eroding, and no new diplomatic initiatives. This is the first cycle since C1 where every indicator moved negative or held steady. No counter-signal.

The structural implication: The food crisis has crossed from "acute disruption with potential for rapid resolution" to "structural degradation requiring months of reconstruction." Even BEST-CASE (instant political agreement + immediate mine clearance start + Chabahar reversal + China exception) requires months of physical reconstruction before food supply chains restore. The operational minimum is now H2 2026.

The wheat question: CBOT wheat at $6.09 remains the last major commodity NOT fully responding to the crisis. US drought stress (30% good/excellent) is providing independent bullish pressure. If oil sustains $108+ AND China H2SO4 enforces May 1 AND Chabahar stays closed, the probability of wheat breaking $7+ increases. The $8 trip-wire remains distant but the path has shortened.

Trip-Wire Status

Next Cycle

Cycle 14: Apr 29-30 (or EMERGENCY cycle if US-IRGC kinetic incident, IRGC Gulf infrastructure strike, or wheat breaks $7).

THE binding questions for Cycle 14:

1. China H2SO4 May 1: enforced on schedule? (T-2 from C14 — deterministic unless last-minute exception)
2. Phone diplomacy: any Trump-Iran call? (Trump wants phone. Iran wants guarantees. Gap immense.)
3. Brent: sustained above $105? (If $108+ holds through week, WFP 45M becomes Q2 baseline)
4. Lebanon ceasefire: combat escalation or stabilization? (Evacuation orders + Hezbollah drone swarm = fragile)
5. Afghanistan: emergency airlift or reroute progress? (Chabahar gone — what alternative is activated?)
6. Wheat response to China H2SO4 + sustained oil? ($6.09 holding — does P-leg shock pull wheat higher?)
7. Mine clearance: any international minesweeping start? (Northwood assets proposed — deployment status?)
8. Araghchi-Putin meeting outcome? (Russia leverage on Iran posture?)
9. Pakistan mediation: any new framework after envoy cancellation?
10. Bangladesh Boro harvest: first damage estimates? (Post-diesel-hike production data)

Sources

• Brent $108.11 Apr 27 — Trading Economics
• Brent forecast Apr 27 — Angle360
• WTI price Apr 27 — FX Daily Report
• Trump cancels envoys trip — WaPo
• Trump cancels envoys — Axios
• Trump cancels envoys — CNBC
• Trump cancels envoys — Bloomberg
• Iran FM Araghchi to Russia, Pakistan — CBS
• Iran FM Araghchi — Fortune
• Iran war updates Apr 26 — Al Jazeera
• Islamabad talks — Al Jazeera
• 2026 Iran war ceasefire — Wikipedia
• Chabahar exit — WION
• Chabahar exit — The Week
• Chabahar exit — Business Standard
• Chabahar India exit — National Herald
• India froze Chabahar funding — Caspian Post
• Pentagon: 6 months mine clearance — WaPo
• Pentagon denies 6-month estimate — The Hill
• US clearing mines — PBS
• Iran lost mine locations — Euronews
• Iran lost mine locations — Jerusalem Post
• Trump's Hormuz blockade shipping crisis — Bloomberg
• 2026 Hormuz crisis — Wikipedia
• Israel forced evacuation 7 towns — Al Jazeera
• Israel evacuation orders — Al Arabiya
• Israel evacuation orders — Middle East Eye
• Lebanon ceasefire — Wikipedia
• Lebanon humanitarian — OCHA Flash Update 20
• Lebanon ceasefire humanitarian — UN News
• Lebanon food crisis — CARE
• Lebanon food crisis — Action Against Hunger
• Global food catastrophe fears — Al Jazeera
• War chokes food chain — Nuclear News
• Iran war food supply chains — Food Navigator
• Iran war hidden front food water fertilizer — CFR
• Clock ticking Hormuz food crisis — UN News
• Iran war disrupting farming — Bloomberg
• Fertilizer prices 6 sizeable moves — DTN
• Urea $858 retail — Agro Informacion
• Ceasefire fails to ease fertilizer — farmdoc daily
• Fertilizer industry war impacts — Argus
• China H2SO4 ban — Bloomberg
• China H2SO4 impact — Supply Chain Digital
• China H2SO4 — Exiger
• China H2SO4 — Washington Examiner
• Iran war sulfur shock — Foreign Policy
• Fertilizer Hormuz — Carnegie
• IFPRI fertilizer impacts
• Wheat $6.09 Apr 27 — Trading Economics
• Wheat market update Apr 24 — Commodity Board
• Gulf desalination dependency — Al Jazeera
• Desalination targeting — Al Jazeera
• Water risk Middle East — CNN
• Iran disrupt desal — CSIS
• Attacks on desalination — Atlantic Council
• Water food inflation Gulf — Middle East Eye
• 2026 food crisis 318M — EBC
• IMF WEO April 2026
• IMF Asia energy shock
• IMF war energy trade finance
• UNCTAD Hormuz disruption
• Global hunger report Apr 24 — EU ECHO
• Global hunger report — Al Jazeera
• 10 countries two-thirds hungry — Gulf Times
• WFP 45M — WFP
• WFP scales up — WFP
• WFP $200M — UN News
• Iran war humanitarian aid straining — Think Global Health
• Iran war hunger crisis — Think Global Health
• Afghanistan hunger crisis — Wikipedia
• Afghanistan 2026 — UN News
• Bangladesh diesel irrigation — Dhaka Tribune
• Bangladesh fuel crisis — Daily Star
• Bangladesh fuel hike — Daily Star
• Bangladesh energy crisis — Wikipedia
• Bangladesh seeks fertilizer alternatives — TBS
• Bangladesh fuel to food crisis — New Age BD
• Bangladesh rice diesel — IREF
• Fortune 70% farmers — Fortune
• FAO FPI