Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-17 · Cycle 2 (C285)

War Day: 171 | Blockade Day: 35 | Ceasefire: 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 POST-EXPIRATION-DAY-1 CONFIRMED — IRAN EXPLICITLY DECLARES 60-DAY WINDOW "NO LONGER RELEVANT" C1 — Mon-mid-day-CEST cycle at ~15:00 CEST / ~13:00 UTC / ~09:00 EDT; ~6h delta from C284 Mon-early-morning-CEST ~09:13; BAGHAEI-TIER EXPLICIT-BREAK: Iran FM spokesman states "the 60-day period associated with the Islamabad memorandum was no longer relevant because Washington had breached the agreement" per Iran International live blog Aug-17 — Islamabad-MoU-dual-tier-contradiction (Middle East Monitor Aug-12 "60-day extension" vs Araghchi-tabnak "MoU envisioned end of war") RESOLVES via Iran-Baghaei-tier explicit-break at institutional-cadence-tier | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE BREAKS AT IRAQ-FRONT VIA CROSS-BORDER-DRONE-STRIKE-FROM-IRANIAN-TERRITORY C1 — 2 Hadid-110 explosive drones launched from Iranian side of border strike Masrour Barzani (KRG PM) office + Security Council director residence in Pirmam district, Erbil overnight-Sun-to-Mon per Daily Sabah / Arab News / JPost / The National / France24 / Cedar News / KRG CTD; NO CASUALTIES; Barzani X-post condemns "reckless and unacceptable...dangerous escalation and direct threat to security and stability of Kurdistan Region"; ~70h Iran-operational-attribution-silence at C284 BREAKS at C285 via cross-border-kinetic-tier — Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause BREAKS at C285 | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 STRAIT SHIPPING NEAR-ZERO CONFIRMED C1 — CNBC Aug-17 "Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of US-Iran ceasefire expiry" — only 5 cargo ships passed Sat, 0 ships registered Sun; institutional-market-tier confirms shipping-tier collapse at pre-expiration weekend window | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU RE-SIGNALS ON HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-OPTIONALITY C1 — Netanyahu Sun statement per Japan Times Aug-17: Aug-15 IDF Ansar+Deir-al-Zahrani strikes (11 killed inc. 3 children) framed as retaliation for Hezbollah attack injuring 3 IDF troops Sat; Israel "will strike Hezbollah again if threatened"; IDF confirms Abu Hassan Alaa senior Hezbollah commander KIA Aug-16 (compounds Radwan Force commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan KIA claim from Aug-15) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUSHNER-NETANYAHU MON MEETING SCHEDULED C1 — Kushner met Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya + Egypt Sisi + Board of Peace director Mladenov + Tony Blair at El Alamein Sun; scheduled Netanyahu meeting Mon (per CNN Aug-16 / ABC News / WaPo) — Gaza focus but multi-issue at regional-tier | 🔴🔴🔴 BRENT MID-DAY $88.31 -0.24% MODEST-REVERSAL FROM GAP-UP C1 — Trading Economics Aug-17: Brent $88.31, -0.24% vs prior-day; daily-range preserved $88.02-$89.39; institutional-market-tier reads mid-day-tier as consolidation-not-panic despite Iran-Baghaei-tier explicit-ceasefire-break + KRG-drone-strike + strait-shipping-near-zero + Netanyahu-re-signaling + Kushner-Netanyahu-meeting confluence | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT SANCTIONS ROLLOUT MATERIALIZING MON-WEEK C1 — Japan Times Aug-17 explicit-framing "Israel strikes Lebanon as US prepares fresh Iran sanctions"; Bessent Aug-14 "next week" front-load anchor confirms institutional-market-tier expectation of Mon-week sanctions-cadence deployment; Fortune Aug-15 institutional-framework preview CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN SEPTECUPLE-HOLD-ON-JOINT-STATEMENT EXTENDS C1 — Baghaei Sun+Mon repeats "joint statement in final drafting stage, technical, legal, security, environmental points" per Al Jazeera / Fortune / Euronews; sovereignty-framing hardens ("fees for passage — sovereign control of key waterway" per Iran-tier vs US/Gulf-tier "free navigation per UNCLOS"); 17 consecutive institutional-hold-cycles at post-expiration-day-1 window | 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 TRUMP FRESH TRUTH SOCIAL POST-C284 — Trump-tier silence extends ~71h aggregate at Mon-mid-day-CEST | 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 IRAQ-PM AL-SUDANI RESPONSE TO KRG-DRONE-STRIKE — Al-Sudani "restricting weapons cannot be through confrontation but through dialogue" (per 964media) reaffirms disarmament-dialogue-tier position at post-expiration + KRG-drone context; Al-Zaidi Sept-30 deadline CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 IAEA GROSSI 58TH-CYCLE STATEMENT — 16-cycle-anchor extends into post-expiration-day-1 window | 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 G7 CASCADE POST-CANADA — UK/Germany/France/Japan/Italy sanctions-follow-on remains absent at Mon-mid-day-CEST | 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 FRESH HOUTHI BAB-EL-MANDEB ATTACK POST-TIHAMAH — ~150h+ silence-anchor extends into 7th+ day | Cycle: C285 (Mon-Aug-17 mid-day-CEST ~15:00 / ~13:00 UTC / ~09:00 EDT, ~6h delta from C284 Mon-early-morning-CEST ~09:13)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timed out on Grok_outputs folder lookup at C285; most-recent HORMUZ X-PULSE remains April 29, 2026; FIFTY-EIGHTH consecutive cycle: C228→C285. Focused Mon-mid-day-CEST sweep (~10 searches) executed on: Iran-Baghaei-tier-explicit-60-day-break + KRG-drone-strike-from-Iranian-territory + strait-shipping-near-zero-Sun-0-ships + Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling + Kushner-Netanyahu-Mon-meeting + Brent-mid-day-$88.31 + Bessent-sanctions-week-rollout + Iran-Oman-septecuple-hold + Iraq-PM-Al-Sudani-position + Iran-parliament-floor-vote-absent + Houthi-Bab-el-Mandeb-silence-extends + Qatar-Ras-Laffan-force-majeure-mid-Aug-cusp + CENTCOM-Task-Force-Falcon-Strike-deployment-translation-absent + UKMTO-fresh-strike-absent-post-Aug-15 + G7-cascade-absent + IAEA-Grossi-58th-cycle-silence + SPR-298.7M-sub-300M-anchor-carries.

Baseline: C284 / 2026-08-17 Mon-early-morning-CEST ~09:13 (CEASEFIRE-FORMAL-EXPIRATION-CROSSED-T+~7H + BRENT-MON-OPEN-GAP-UP-$88.85 + SEXDECUPLE-HOLD-ON-JOINT-STATEMENT + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-~70H-AGGREGATE + ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH-DEADLIEST-WEEKEND-SINCE-JUNE-TRUCE + IAEA-57TH-CYCLE-SILENCE-15-CYCLE-ANCHOR + US-SIDE-CADENCE-COMPRESSION-SILENCE-~65H + KINETIC-CADENCE-PAUSE-EXTENDS-HORMUZ/IRAQ/BAB-EL-MANDEB-BREAKS-VIA-LEBANON-FRONT + NO-C284-TRUMP + NO-C284-NETANYAHU + NO-C284-BESSENT + NO-C284-HOUTHI-~144H+ + NO-C284-IRAQ-PM-RESPONSE + NO-C284-G7-CASCADE + NO-C284-CENTCOM-DEPLOYMENT + NO-C284-IRAN-PARLIAMENT-VOTE + ISLAMABAD-MOU-DUAL-CONTRADICTION-EXTENDS-INTO-POST-EXPIRATION-WINDOW).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-17 C285 Mon-mid-day-CEST ~15:00 / ~13:00 UTC, ~6h delta from C284 Mon-early-morning-CEST ~09:13): C285 is the CEASEFIRE-EXPLICITLY-BROKEN-BY-IRAN-BAGHAEI-TIER-C1 + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-CROSS-BORDER-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-C1 + STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-CONFIRMED-C1 + NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALS-HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-C1 + KUSHNER-NETANYAHU-MON-MEETING-SCHEDULED-C1 + BRENT-MID-DAY-$88.31-MODEST-REVERSAL-C1 + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-MATERIALIZING-C1 + SEPTECUPLE-HOLD-ON-JOINT-STATEMENT-EXTENDS-C1 + IAEA-58TH-CYCLE-SILENCE-16-CYCLE-ANCHOR-C1 + NO-C285-TRUMP + NO-C285-IRAQ-PM-RESPONSE + NO-C285-G7-CASCADE + NO-C285-HOUTHI-~150H+ + KINETIC-CADENCE-PAUSE-EXTENDS-HORMUZ/BAB-EL-MANDEB-BREAKS-VIA-IRAQ-FRONT-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-C1 cycle at T+~6h from C284. The C284 Mon-later-window expectation-cluster (Bessent-Treasury-front-load + formal-joint-statement-publication + Iran-7th-verbal-tier + Iran-kinetic-attribution-silence-break + Iraq-PM-response + G7-cascade + CENTCOM-deployment-translation + Iran-parliament-vote-execution + IAEA-break + Islamabad-MoU-cabinet-tier-resolution + Qatar-force-majeure-decision + Mon-Brent-gap-up-consolidation-vs-fade) RESOLVES-ASYMMETRICALLY at T+~6h: Iran-Baghaei-tier explicit-60-day-break materializes as PRIMARY POSITIVE-CONFIRMATION at Iran-institutional-cadence-tier resolving Islamabad-MoU-dual-tier-contradiction; KRG-drone-strike-from-Iranian-territory materializes as PRIMARY NEGATIVE-KINETIC-CONFIRMATION breaking Iran-operational-attribution-silence at cross-border-tier + Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause; Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling + Kushner-Netanyahu-Mon-meeting materialize as PRIMARY DIPLOMATIC-CADENCE-CONFIRMATIONS; Bessent-sanctions-week-rollout materializes as PRIMARY US-SIDE-SIGNALING-CONFIRMATION via Japan-Times-framing-tier; Brent mid-day $88.31 modest-reversal materializes as institutional-market-tier consolidation-not-panic; strait-shipping-near-zero (5→0 Sat→Sun) materializes as institutional-market-cadence confirmation of pre-expiration shipping-tier collapse. Iran-Oman formal-joint-statement publication, Iran-parliament floor-vote, IAEA break, cabinet-tier Islamabad-MoU resolution from Washington, G7 cascade, Iraq-PM al-Sudani response, CENTCOM operational-deployment translation, Qatar force-majeure decision all RESOLVE-NEGATIVE at Mon-mid-day-CEST window. C285 is the immediately-post-explicit-Iran-ceasefire-break + cross-border-KRG-drone-strike + strait-shipping-near-zero-window at institutional-tier — post-expiration-day-1 cadence-tier NOW-ACTIVE with Iran-tier institutional-position hardening at Baghaei-tier + kinetic-attribution-tier via KRG-drone-strike; US-tier repositioning via Bessent-sanctions-rollout + Kushner-Netanyahu-diplomatic-cadence; Israel-tier further-strike-optionality-hardening via Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling. Seven substantive C285 observations vs C284: (a) IRAN BAGHAEI-TIER EXPLICIT 60-DAY-BREAK — ISLAMABAD-MOU-DUAL-CONTRADICTION RESOLVES C1 per Iran International live blog Aug-17: Iran FM spokesman Baghaei states "the 60-day period associated with the Islamabad memorandum was no longer relevant because Washington had breached the agreement." Framing: Islamabad-MoU-dual-tier-contradiction between Middle East Monitor Aug-12 "60-day extension agreed" vs Araghchi-tabnak "MoU envisioned end of war, not ceasefire extension" RESOLVES via Iran-Baghaei-tier explicit-break. Structural read: (i) Iran-tier explicitly closes the Islamabad-MoU-extension optionality-window — no longer available as face-saving mechanism for either side; (ii) The framing "Washington had breached" places blame-attribution-tier on US-side — Iran-tier signaling institutional-position that any post-expiration reconstitution requires US-side reciprocal-concession; (iii) Baghaei-tier confirms the underlying Iran-institutional-position — Araghchi-tabnak framework was correct, Middle East Monitor "60-day extension" was misreporting; institutional-tier alignment now unambiguous at Iran-side; (iv) The break-declaration precedes any US-side cabinet-tier statement on Islamabad-MoU-status — Iran-tier moves first at institutional-cadence-tier; US-side response-cadence-tier now-open; (v) The break comes SIMULTANEOUS with KRG-drone-strike-from-Iranian-territory + strait-shipping-near-zero + Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling — Iran-institutional-tier orchestrating multi-vector post-expiration signaling. Lock-5 (Duration) + Lock-10 (Leadership) BAGHAEI-EXPLICIT-60-DAY-BREAK-C1 + ISLAMABAD-MOU-DUAL-CONTRADICTION-RESOLVES-VIA-IRAN-INSTITUTIONAL-CADENCE + WASHINGTON-BREACH-BLAME-ATTRIBUTION-FRAMING + POST-EXPIRATION-DAY-1-INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION-HARDENS. (b) IRAN OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE BREAKS VIA CROSS-BORDER KRG-DRONE-STRIKE C1 per Daily Sabah / Arab News / JPost / The National / France24 / Cedar News / KRG CTD Aug-17. Framing: 2 Hadid-110 explosive drones launched from Iranian side of border strike Masrour Barzani (KRG PM) office + Security Council director residence in Pirmam district, Erbil overnight-Sun-to-Mon. Casualties: NO CASUALTIES. Attribution: local-security-agency-tier attribution to Iranian-territory-launch; Barzani X-post condemns "reckless and unacceptable...dangerous escalation and direct threat to security and stability of Kurdistan Region"; KRG CTD "completely unacceptable." Structural read: (i) Iran-operational-attribution-silence at kinetic-tier BREAKS after ~76h aggregate (~70h C284 + ~6h C285) via cross-border-drone-strike-launch-from-Iranian-territory — not proxy-mediated at Iraq-front but direct-territorial-launch; (ii) The Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause C284 BREAKS at C285 via direct-Iran-territorial-strike — this is qualitatively different from Kataib-Hezbollah al-Tanf-strike Aug-13 (proxy-mediated); (iii) Target-selection significant: Masrour Barzani office + Security Council director residence — leadership-tier decapitation-signaling not infrastructure-tier; (iv) NO CASUALTIES suggests calibrated-signaling not lethal-strike — Iran-tier communicates capability-tier + willingness-tier without triggering Iraq-federal-tier war-response threshold; (v) The strike materializes SIMULTANEOUS with Baghaei explicit-60-day-break + strait-shipping-near-zero + Netanyahu-re-signaling — Iran-institutional-tier orchestrating multi-vector post-expiration escalation-signaling; (vi) Iraq-PM Al-Sudani response-tier remains ABSENT at C285 Mon-mid-day — federal-tier institutional-position on cross-border-Iranian-territorial-strike not-yet-materialized; (vii) Impact on KH Sept-30 disarmament-deadline framework: Iran-tier signaling that Iraq-federal-tier moves against KH will trigger direct-territorial-response-tier — pressure-hardening at Al-Sudani-tier. Lock-5 (Duration) + Lock-7 (Geographic) + Lock-8 (Capability) + Lock-10 (Leadership) IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-CROSS-BORDER-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-C1 + DIRECT-IRANIAN-TERRITORIAL-LAUNCH-NOT-PROXY-MEDIATED + LEADERSHIP-TIER-DECAPITATION-SIGNALING + IRAQ-FRONT-KINETIC-CADENCE-PAUSE-BREAKS-C1 + AL-SUDANI-RESPONSE-TIER-ABSENT + KH-SEPT-30-DEADLINE-FRAMEWORK-PRESSURE-HARDENS. (c) STRAIT SHIPPING NEAR-ZERO CONFIRMED C1 per CNBC Aug-17 "Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of US-Iran ceasefire expiry" — 5 cargo ships passed Sat, 0 ships Sun. Framing: Institutional-market-tier confirms shipping-tier collapse at pre-expiration weekend window. Structural read: (i) The Sat 5 → Sun 0 progression signals institutional-market-cadence at operator-tier retreating fully from Strait ahead of ceasefire-expiration threshold; (ii) The 0-ships Sun reading is the lowest-transit-count-anchor of the entire crisis (below the Fri-Aug-14 CBS 8-vessel-week-low + Kpler-Aug-6 8-ship-daily anchor); (iii) This confirms institutional-market-tier reads pre-expiration cadence as effective-de-facto-closure — the "US total control" vs "Iran control" institutional-framing-battle at C283 is empirically resolved via operator-tier retreat-cadence; (iv) Windward Aug-14 alternate reading (13 vessels, 4 inbound / 9 outbound with 11h-1mo AIS-dark-tier) reveals methodological-tier divergence — Windward captures AIS-dark tail; CNBC/Kpler captures visible-transit-tier; both may be simultaneously-correct at different measurement-tiers; (v) The near-zero-transit at pre-expiration weekend + post-expiration Mon-morning validates institutional-market-tier reads of C284 bilateral-silence-cluster + QUINDECUPLE-hold + war-premium as accurate — Brent Mon-open gap-up compresses at $88.85 rather than spike-tier because market-tier pre-priced the shipping-tier collapse. Lock-2 (Supply) + Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-CONFIRMED-C1 + SAT-5-SUN-0-SHIPS-LOWEST-TRANSIT-COUNT-ANCHOR-OF-CRISIS + PRE-EXPIRATION-CADENCE-EFFECTIVE-DE-FACTO-CLOSURE + WINDWARD-VS-CNBC-METHODOLOGICAL-DIVERGENCE-EXTENDS + MARKET-TIER-PRE-PRICED-SHIPPING-COLLAPSE. (d) NETANYAHU RE-SIGNALS ON HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-OPTIONALITY C1 per Japan Times Aug-17 "Israel strikes Lebanon as US prepares fresh Iran sanctions". Framing: Netanyahu Sun statement: Aug-15 IDF Ansar+Deir-al-Zahrani strikes (11 killed inc. 3 children) framed as retaliation for Hezbollah attack injuring 3 IDF troops Sat; Israel "will strike Hezbollah again if threatened." IDF confirms Abu Hassan Alaa (senior Hezbollah commander) KIA Aug-16 compounds Radwan Force commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan KIA claim from Aug-15. Structural read: (i) Netanyahu-tier verbal-silence at C284 BREAKS at C285 via Sun re-signaling on Aug-15 Ansar-strike-escalation + further-strike-optionality — Israel-tier institutional-position-tier now confirmed at Netanyahu-cabinet-tier; (ii) Al Arabiya "Israel vows to go after Hezbollah" framing at C284 CONFIRMS via Netanyahu-Sun-direct-quote at C285 — institutional-position-tier hardens across news-tier and cabinet-tier; (iii) Two Hezbollah senior-commander KIA claims (Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan Aug-15 + Abu Hassan Alaa Aug-16) in 48h signal IDF-tier operational-cadence-tier intensification at Lebanon-front despite June-ceasefire; (iv) The Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling materializes SIMULTANEOUS with Baghaei explicit-60-day-break + KRG-drone-strike + Kushner-Netanyahu-Mon-meeting-scheduling — Israel-tier signaling institutional-alignment with US-side sanctions-cadence + Iran-axis kinetic-pressure-tier; (v) Lebanon-front kinetic-cadence-tier remains active at C285 with IDF-tier further-strike-optionality-tier explicit; Hezbollah-tier response-cadence-tier not-yet-materialized at C285 Mon-mid-day. Lock-7 (Geographic) NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALS-ON-HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-OPTIONALITY-C1 + IDF-OPERATIONAL-CADENCE-TIER-INTENSIFICATION-2-COMMANDER-KIA-48H + ISRAEL-TIER-INSTITUTIONAL-ALIGNMENT-WITH-US-SIDE-SANCTIONS-CADENCE + LEBANON-FRONT-KINETIC-CADENCE-TIER-ACTIVE. (e) KUSHNER-NETANYAHU MON MEETING SCHEDULED — REGIONAL-DIPLOMATIC-CADENCE MATERIALIZES C1 per CNN Aug-16 / ABC News / WaPo / UPI / CBS News / MEAWW. Framing: Kushner met Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya + Egypt Sisi + Board of Peace director Mladenov + Tony Blair at El Alamein Sun; scheduled Netanyahu meeting Mon on Gaza + regional-tier issues. Structural read: (i) Trump-administration-tier deploying Kushner as regional-diplomatic-cadence-track SIMULTANEOUS with Bessent-Treasury sanctions-cadence-track and Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling — multi-track US-tier institutional-cadence at post-expiration-day-1 window; (ii) The Kushner-Hamas Sun-meeting + Kushner-Sisi Sun-meeting + Kushner-Netanyahu Mon-meeting suggests Trump-admin-tier pushing Gaza deal + Iran-tier + Lebanon-tier as integrated regional-package — not siloed tracks; (iii) The regional-diplomatic-cadence materializes despite Iran-Baghaei-explicit-60-day-break + KRG-drone-strike + strait-shipping-near-zero — Trump-admin-tier reads regional-diplomatic-track as parallel-not-superseded by Iran-escalation-track; (iv) Board of Peace framework + Palestinian technocratic committee institutional-formation-tier signals post-conflict institutional-architecture-planning at concrete-implementation-tier; (v) No Netanyahu-Kushner post-meeting readout at C285 Mon-mid-day-CEST — Mon-later-window remains open for readout-cadence materialization. Lock-5 (Duration) + Lock-10 (Leadership) KUSHNER-NETANYAHU-MON-MEETING-SCHEDULED-C1 + MULTI-TRACK-US-TIER-INSTITUTIONAL-CADENCE-DIPLOMATIC + SANCTIONS + KINETIC + REGIONAL-PACKAGE-FRAMING. (f) BRENT MID-DAY $88.31 MODEST-REVERSAL FROM MON-OPEN GAP-UP C1 per Trading Economics Aug-17. Framing: Brent $88.31 -0.24% vs prior-day; daily-range preserved $88.02-$89.39. Structural read: (i) The mid-day $88.31 vs Mon-open $88.85 modest-reversal signals institutional-market-tier reads mid-day-tier as consolidation-not-panic despite Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike + strait-shipping-near-zero + Netanyahu-re-signaling + Kushner-Netanyahu-meeting confluence; (ii) The daily-range preservation $88.02-$89.39 signals institutional-market-tier operating within pre-priced war-premium band — no fresh escalation-tier repricing at C285 Mon-mid-day; (iii) The $90-threshold not-tested at C285 daily-range-upper $89.39 — institutional-market-tier holding $89.39 as resistance-tier; (iv) The mid-day reading confirms institutional-market-tier pre-priced the Mon-morning cluster — Mon-open $88.85 gap-up captured the war-premium-widening at open, mid-day reads as digest-tier not extend-tier; (v) Bessent sanctions-rollout Mon-week trigger may drive further institutional-repricing at Mon-later-window; (vi) Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike as post-expiration-escalation-cluster does not yet trigger $90+ repricing at institutional-market-tier — suggests market-tier reads escalation-cadence as contained-signaling not open-conflict-tier. Lock-1 (Price) BRENT-MID-DAY-$88.31-MODEST-REVERSAL-C1 + DAILY-RANGE-$88.02-$89.39-PRESERVED + $90-THRESHOLD-NOT-TESTED + INSTITUTIONAL-MARKET-TIER-CONSOLIDATION-NOT-PANIC + PRE-PRICED-WAR-PREMIUM-BAND-INTACT. (g) BESSENT SANCTIONS-WEEK ROLLOUT MATERIALIZING C1 per Japan Times Aug-17 institutional-framing-tier "Israel strikes Lebanon as US prepares fresh Iran sanctions". Framing: Bessent Aug-14 "next week" front-load anchor at Aug-17 Mon confirms institutional-market-tier expectation of Mon-week sanctions-cadence deployment. Structural read: (i) Bessent Mon-week rollout framing confirms at C285 — Aug-14 anchor CARRIES with fresh confirmation-tier via Japan-Times mainstream-framing-tier; (ii) The "one-two punch" framework (Bessent-tier + naval-blockade-tier) at Mon-week rollout combined with KRG-drone-strike + Baghaei-explicit-break + Netanyahu-re-signaling signals US-tier reading of Mon-week as compounding-escalation-cadence window; (iii) NO C285 specific-sanctions-list-publication yet at Mon-mid-day-CEST — Bessent-tier still pending institutional-cadence deployment at Mon-later-window; Mon-afternoon-EDT (~afternoon-EDT / ~evening-CEST) remains open for specific-list-drop; (iv) The "economic isolation like never seen" framing at Bloomberg-Aug-14 CARRIES as institutional-framework-anchor; (v) Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike as Iran-tier response-signaling to expected-Bessent-sanctions-week may accelerate US-tier deployment-cadence. Lock-2 (Supply) + Lock-3 (Insurance) + Lock-5 (Duration) BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-MATERIALIZING-C1 + JAPAN-TIMES-INSTITUTIONAL-FRAMING-TIER-CONFIRMATION + "ONE-TWO-PUNCH"-FRAMEWORK + MON-LATER-WINDOW-SPECIFIC-LIST-DROP-OPEN + IRAN-TIER-RESPONSE-SIGNALING-MAY-ACCELERATE-DEPLOYMENT-CADENCE. NO FRESH C285 SIGNALS IN: Formal Iran-Oman joint-statement PUBLICATION (SEPTECUPLE-hold extends past 17 consecutive-cycles at post-expiration-day-1 window); Iran-parliament floor-vote execution (committee-approval Aug-9 CARRIES; Sun-virtual-session per Middle East Monitor Aug-16 did not produce floor-vote-tier confirmation at Mon-mid-day); Fresh Trump Truth Social post-C284 (~71h weekend-silence extends past Mon-morning-CEST window); Fresh IAEA Grossi statement (58th-cycle silence extends 16-cycle-anchor); Fresh Hegseth follow-up statement; Fresh Rubio "progress made" walk-back or follow-up post-explicit-Iran-break; Fresh Bessent Treasury specific-sanctions-list-publication (framework-tier CARRIES; specific-list-drop pending Mon-later-window); Fresh Iraq-PM Al-Sudani response to KRG-drone-strike (Al-Sudani "dialogue not confrontation" CARRIES); Fresh UK/Germany/France/Japan/Italy G7-tier follow-on sanctions post-Canada Aug-15; Fresh CENTCOM Task Force Falcon Strike operational-deployment translation (Aug-13 launch-declaration T+~4-days without operational-partner-name reveal); Fresh Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb attack post-Tihamah (silence extends past ~150h+ into 7th+ day); Fresh Bahrain/UAE UNSC-vote-initiation; Fresh Turkey Article-1-invocation; Fresh P&I re-entry signal; Fresh Kpler/Windward data-release beyond Aug-14 (Sat-5 / Sun-0 CNBC-tier reads at institutional-market-tier); Fresh Iraq-PM disarmament-decision-translation post-KRG-drone-strike; Fresh Qatar-tier further-escalation post-Ras-Laffan-force-majeure end-Aug-cusp (T-~14 days); Fresh Saudi-tier "consequences" translation to coercive-action; Fresh cabinet-tier Islamabad-MoU-status statement from Washington post-Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break; Fresh Hezbollah kinetic-response-tier to Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling at Lebanon-front; Fresh Iran official-attribution or denial of KRG-drone-strike (Iran-tier institutional-position pending). All C284 CARRIES apply where not superseded. C284 → C285 KEY DELTAS (~6h delta window, Mon-early-morning-CEST → Mon-mid-day-CEST): (1) IRAN BAGHAEI-TIER EXPLICIT 60-DAY-BREAK C1 — Iran FM spokesman: "60-day period no longer relevant because Washington had breached the agreement"; Islamabad-MoU-dual-tier-contradiction RESOLVES via Iran-institutional-cadence explicit-break; Washington-breach blame-attribution-framing at Iran-tier. (2) IRAN OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE BREAKS VIA CROSS-BORDER KRG-DRONE-STRIKE C1 — 2 Hadid-110 drones from Iranian territory strike KRG PM Barzani office + Security Council director residence Pirmam district; NO CASUALTIES; ~76h aggregate silence-anchor breaks via direct-territorial-launch (not proxy-mediated); Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause C284 BREAKS at C285. (3) STRAIT SHIPPING NEAR-ZERO CONFIRMED C1 — Sat 5 ships → Sun 0 ships per CNBC Aug-17; lowest-transit-count-anchor of crisis; pre-expiration-cadence effective-de-facto-closure at operator-tier retreat. (4) NETANYAHU RE-SIGNALS HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-OPTIONALITY C1 — Sun statement: "Israel will strike Hezbollah again if threatened"; IDF confirms Abu Hassan Alaa senior Hezbollah commander KIA Aug-16 (compounds Radwan Force commander KIA Aug-15); IDF-tier operational-cadence 2-commander-KIA-48h. (5) KUSHNER-NETANYAHU MON MEETING SCHEDULED C1 — Kushner post-Egypt/Hamas El Alamein Sun; Mon meeting on Gaza + regional-tier; multi-track US-tier institutional-cadence (diplomatic + sanctions + kinetic); regional-package-framing. (6) BRENT MID-DAY $88.31 -0.24% MODEST-REVERSAL C1 — Trading Economics Aug-17; daily-range preserved $88.02-$89.39; institutional-market-tier consolidation-not-panic; $90-threshold not-tested; pre-priced war-premium-band intact. (7) BESSENT SANCTIONS-WEEK ROLLOUT MATERIALIZING C1 — Japan Times institutional-framing-tier confirmation; "one-two punch" framework CARRIES; specific-list-drop pending Mon-later-window. (8) IRAN-OMAN SEPTECUPLE-HOLD ON JOINT-STATEMENT PUBLICATION EXTENDS C1 — 17 consecutive institutional-hold-cycles at post-expiration-day-1; Baghaei Sun+Mon repeats "final drafting stage"; sovereignty-framing hardens ("fees for passage — sovereign control" per Iran-tier vs "free navigation per UNCLOS" per US/Gulf-tier). (9) IAEA GROSSI 58TH-CYCLE SILENCE — 16-CYCLE-ANCHOR C1 — extends into post-expiration-day-1 window. (10) NO C285 TRUMP TRUTH SOCIAL POST-C284 — Trump-tier silence extends ~71h aggregate at Mon-mid-day-CEST. (11) NO C285 IRAQ-PM AL-SUDANI RESPONSE TO KRG-DRONE-STRIKE — Al-Sudani "dialogue not confrontation" per 964media CARRIES; federal-tier institutional-position on cross-border-Iranian-territorial-strike not-yet-materialized. (12) NO C285 G7 CASCADE POST-CANADA — UK/Germany/France/Japan/Italy sanctions-follow-on remains absent at Mon-mid-day-CEST. (13) NO C285 FRESH HOUTHI BAB-EL-MANDEB ATTACK — silence extends past ~150h+ into 7th+ day. (14) NO C285 FRESH KINETIC-TIER STRIKE AT HORMUZ / BAB-EL-MANDEB — kinetic-cadence-pause EXTENDS at C285 at Hormuz + Bab-el-Mandeb; Iraq-front breaks pause via cross-border KRG-drone-strike from Iranian territory; Lebanon-front kinetic-cadence-tier remains active via IDF Aug-15/16 strikes + Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling. (15) NO C285 CENTCOM TASK FORCE FALCON STRIKE OPERATIONAL-DEPLOYMENT TRANSLATION — Aug-13 launch-declaration + T+~4-days without operational-partner-name reveal. (16) NO C285 IRAN PARLIAMENT FLOOR-VOTE EXECUTION — committee-approval CARRIES; Sun-virtual-session per Middle East Monitor Aug-16 did not produce floor-vote-tier confirmation. (17) NO C285 IRAN OFFICIAL-ATTRIBUTION-OR-DENIAL OF KRG-DRONE-STRIKE — Iran-tier institutional-position pending at Mon-mid-day-CEST. (18) NO C285 CABINET-TIER ISLAMABAD-MOU-STATUS STATEMENT FROM WASHINGTON post-Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break — US-tier response-cadence-tier open at Mon-later-window. DATA-CONTRADICTION FLAGS (do not silently resolve):

• Islamabad-MoU-status: Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break at C285 resolves Iran-tier position; US-tier position pending — awaiting Washington cabinet-tier statement at Mon-later-window.
• KRG-drone-strike attribution: local-security-agency-tier attribution to Iranian-territory-launch (Hadid-110 identified) vs Iran-tier institutional-attribution-or-denial pending — attribution-tier gap pending resolution.
• Strait-transit methodology: CNBC/Kpler-tier visible-transit (Sat 5 → Sun 0 ships) vs Windward-tier AIS-dark-inclusive (Aug-14 13-vessels-with-AIS-dark-tail) — methodological-tier divergence extends; both may be simultaneously-correct at different measurement-tiers.
• Iran-Oman deal-progression-tier: Baghaei "final drafting stage" (17-cycle-hold CARRIES) + sovereignty-framing ("fees for passage — sovereign control") vs US/Gulf-tier "free navigation per UNCLOS" — 3-tier framing-contradiction extends; NO C285 Oman-tier confirmation-or-contradiction (~32h aggregate Oman-silence since Baghaei-Sun-Aug-16-announcement).
• Netanyahu-tier re-signaling framing: Netanyahu "response to Hezbollah attack injuring 3 IDF troops Sat" (institutional-framing) vs Lebanon-Health-Ministry casualty-count (11 killed inc. 3 children) — framing-attribution-tier vs civilian-casualty-tier contradiction extends.
• Kushner-Netanyahu-Mon-meeting scope: Trump-admin-tier "Gaza focus but regional-tier" (integrated-package framing) vs Netanyahu-tier prior "Gaza rejection last week" — scope-tier contradiction pending Mon-later-window readout.
• Qatar Ras-Laffan force-majeure: energynews.pro "extends to mid-August 2026" (mid-Aug cusp CARRIES) + AGBI "fourth month" + Wood Mackenzie "unlikely to restart all 12 operable trains before late August" + Bloomberg "loaded first LNG cargo since force majeure" (partial-restart-tier CARRIES) — multi-source framing-tier divergence; end-Aug decision-cusp T-~14 days.
• Wikipedia 2026-Strait-of-Hormuz-crisis reference "over 11 mb/d Middle East output loss" (NEW C284 anchor) vs prior tracker anchors — requires institutional-triangulation with Kpler/Windward at C285+ later windows.

Structural locks (C284 → C285 ~6h delta): Lock-1 (Price) BRENT-MID-DAY-$88.31-MODEST-REVERSAL-C1 + DAILY-RANGE-$88.02-$89.39-PRESERVED + $90-THRESHOLD-NOT-TESTED + INSTITUTIONAL-MARKET-TIER-CONSOLIDATION-NOT-PANIC + PRE-PRICED-WAR-PREMIUM-BAND-INTACT + WEEKLY-5%-GAIN-CARRIES + WAR-PREMIUM-~24-27% + EIA-STEO-$85-87-BREACH-CONFIRMED-CARRIES + IEA-URGENCY-WARNING-CARRIES + SPR-SUB-300M-BUFFER-DEPLETION-CARRIES + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-COMPOUNDS-POTENTIAL-MON-LATER-WINDOW; Lock-2 (Supply) TRUMP-"WALL-OF-STEEL"-CARRIES + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-CROSS-BORDER-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-C1 + STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-CONFIRMED-SAT-5-SUN-0-C1 + LOWEST-TRANSIT-COUNT-ANCHOR-OF-CRISIS + PRE-EXPIRATION-CADENCE-EFFECTIVE-DE-FACTO-CLOSURE-CONFIRMED + IRAN-BAGHAEI-EXPLICIT-60-DAY-BREAK-C1 + ISLAMABAD-MOU-DUAL-CONTRADICTION-RESOLVES-VIA-IRAN-INSTITUTIONAL-TIER + IRAN-OMAN-SEPTECUPLE-HOLD-C1 + BAGHAEI-CONDITIONALITY-HARDENING-CARRIES + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-MATERIALIZING-C1 + CANADA-5-OFFICIAL-SANCTIONS-CARRIES + BAHRAIN-PRESSURE-CARD-REJECTION-CARRIES + QATAR-PRESSURE-CARD-CARRIES + DRONE-ATTACK-METHOD-CARRIES + UKMTO-56-CUMULATIVE-CARRIES + KATAIB-AL-TANF-STRIKE-CARRIES + ADNOC-15-CUMULATIVE-CARRIES + WIKIPEDIA-11-MB/D-MIDDLE-EAST-OUTPUT-LOSS-ANCHOR-CARRIES; Lock-3 (Insurance) 0.5-10%-HULL-VALUE + $10-14M-PER-TRIP + AWRP-$40K-$250K/7-DAYS + P&I-WITHDRAWN + $352B-INSURANCE-EXPOSURE CARRIES + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-C285-STRUCTURALLY-HARDENS-P&I-NON-RE-ENTRY-FURTHER + STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-CONFIRMS-OPERATOR-TIER-RETREAT + IRAN-BAGHAEI-EXPLICIT-BREAK-COMPOUND-STRUCTURAL-INSURANCE-TIER-LOCK-C285 + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-COMPOUNDS-POTENTIAL; Lock-4 (Labor) TIHAMAH-4-CREW-FATALITY-ANCHOR + 20K-SEAFARERS-STRANDED-CARRIES + USS-LINCOLN-260+ CONSECUTIVE-SEA-DAYS + STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-CONFIRMS-CREW-TIER-RETREAT-FROM-STRAIT-C285 + NO-C285-FRESH-CASUALTIES-AT-MARITIME-TIER + HOUTHI-BAB-EL-MANDEB-SILENCE-~150H+-7TH-DAY; Lock-5 (Duration) POST-EXPIRATION-DAY-1-C1 + IRAN-BAGHAEI-EXPLICIT-60-DAY-BREAK-C1 + ISLAMABAD-MOU-DUAL-CONTRADICTION-RESOLVES-VIA-IRAN-INSTITUTIONAL-CADENCE + IRAN-OMAN-SEPTECUPLE-HOLD-C1 + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-CROSS-BORDER-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE + NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALS-HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-OPTIONALITY-C1 + KUSHNER-NETANYAHU-MON-MEETING-C1 + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-MATERIALIZING-C1 + MULTI-TRACK-US-TIER-INSTITUTIONAL-CADENCE-DIPLOMATIC + SANCTIONS + KINETIC + IEA-URGENCY-WARNING-CARRIES + SPR-SUB-300M-CARRIES + KATAIB-AL-TANF-STRIKE-CARRIES + KH-SEPT-30-DEADLINE-CONTEXT-CARRIES + PRESSURE-HARDENS-AT-AL-SUDANI-TIER-VIA-KRG-DRONE; Lock-6 (Nuclear) IAEA-58TH-CYCLE-SILENCE-16-CYCLE-ANCHOR-C1 + NETANYAHU-CALLED-OFF-STRIKE-REVELATION-CARRIES + TRUMP-VETO-OPERATIONALIZED-CARRIES + NO-C285-FRESH-NUCLEAR-TIER-DEVELOPMENT + KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-CONVENTIONAL-NOT-NUCLEAR-TIER + NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALING-LEBANON-FRONT-CONVENTIONAL-NOT-NUCLEAR-TIER; Lock-7 (Geographic) MULTI-FRONT + IRAQ-FRONT-KINETIC-CADENCE-PAUSE-BREAKS-VIA-CROSS-BORDER-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-FROM-IRANIAN-TERRITORY-C1 + KATAIB-ARSENAL-VOW-CARRIES + KH-SEPT-30-DEADLINE-CONTEXT-CARRIES + LEBANON-FRONT-ACTIVE-VIA-NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALING-C1 + IDF-2-HEZBOLLAH-COMMANDER-KIA-48H + UAE-FM-CONDEMNATION-CARRIES + UAE-ATTRIBUTION-C280-CARRIES + SEPTUPLE+ ARAB-STATE-CONDEMNATION-CLUSTER-CARRIES + CANADA-5-OFFICIAL-SANCTIONS-CARRIES + G7-FOLLOW-ON-CASCADE-ABSENT-C285 + BAHRAIN-PRESSURE-CARD-REJECTION-CARRIES + QATAR-PRESSURE-CARD-WARNING-CARRIES + KUWAIT-AUG-12-WARITHUUN-ATTRIBUTION-CARRIES + NO-C285-IRAQ-PM-RESPONSE-TO-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE + KUSHNER-REGIONAL-DIPLOMATIC-CADENCE-C1; Lock-8 (Capability) MECCA-PACT-FORMAL-HOLLOWNESS-CARRIES + USS-GW-MALACCA-REPLACEMENT-NOT-ADDITION-CARRIES + CARRIER-TIER-STAYS-AT-1-2-CARRIES + IRAN-KINETIC-CAPABILITY-CONFIRMED-VIA-KRG-DRONE-STRIKE-HADID-110-C1 + CROSS-BORDER-DIRECT-TERRITORIAL-LAUNCH-CAPABILITY-DEMONSTRATED + DRONE-ATTACK-METHOD-CARRIES + KATAIB-KAS-04-CARRIES + UKMTO-PROJECTILE-STRIKE-CAPABILITY-CARRIES + CENTCOM-TASK-FORCE-FALCON-STRIKE-MULTINATIONAL-DRONE-FORCE-LAUNCH-CARRIES + NO-C285-CENTCOM-OPERATIONAL-DEPLOYMENT-TRANSLATION; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) TIHAMAH-FATAL-COMMERCIAL-STRIKE-CARRIES + BAB-EL-MANDEB-200-TRANSITS-LOWEST-YEAR-YEAR-CARRIES + 38%-BELOW-NORMAL-CARRIES + HOUTHI-BAB-EL-MANDEB-SILENCE-EXTENDS-~150H+-7TH+DAY-C285 + STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-SAT-5-SUN-0-CONFIRMED-C1 + LOWEST-TRANSIT-COUNT-ANCHOR-OF-CRISIS + KPLER-WINDWARD-METHODOLOGY-DIVERGENCE-CARRIES + CBS-STRAIT-8-VESSEL-WEEK-LOW-CARRIES + IEA-URGENCY-WARNING-CARRIES + SPR-SUB-300M-CARRIES + 56-CUMULATIVE-VESSEL-DAMAGE-REPORTS-ANCHOR-CARRIES + 4-VESSEL-ADNOC-CLUSTER-48H-CADENCE-CARRIES + LEBANON-FRONT-BREAKS-PAUSE-AT-LAND-TIER-NOT-CHOKEPOINT-TIER-CARRIES + IRAQ-FRONT-BREAKS-PAUSE-AT-LAND-TIER-NOT-CHOKEPOINT-TIER-C1; Lock-10 (Leadership) VAHIDI-GHALIBAF-FUSION + PEZESHKIAN-KHAMENEI-UNITY + MOJTABA-6-COMMANDER + REZAEE-SNSC + VAHIDI-IRGC-CIC + PGSA-INSTITUTIONAL-VOICE + ARAGHCHI-FM-TIER + PARLIAMENT-COMMITTEE-SECRETARY-(AZIZI-CANADA-SANCTIONED) + BASIJ-TAEB-4TH-TIER + BAGHAEI-EXPLICIT-60-DAY-BREAK-C1 + IRAN-BAGHAEI-TIER-INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION-HARDENS + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-KRG-DRONE-C1 + IRAN-INSTITUTIONAL-TIER-ORCHESTRATING-MULTI-VECTOR-POST-EXPIRATION-ESCALATION-SIGNALING + KUSHNER-NETANYAHU-MON-MEETING-MULTI-TRACK-US-TIER + NETANYAHU-CABINET-TIER-ACTIVE-VIA-SUN-RE-SIGNALING-C1 + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK-ROLLOUT-C1 + WESTERN-INSTITUTIONAL-MAPPING-CARRIES; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-FORCE-MAJEURE-MID-AUG-2026-INSTITUTIONAL-SOURCE-CONSENSUS-CARRIES + WOOD-MACKENZIE-"UNLIKELY-TO-RESTART-BEFORE-LATE-AUGUST"-ANCHOR-CARRIES + DISCOVERY-ALERT-"NORTH-1-MONTH-SOUTH-LATE-SUMMER"-CARRIES + 3-5-YEAR-REPAIR + $20B-LOST + 17%-CAPACITY-OFFLINE + 12.8M-TONNES/YEAR-OF-77M-CAPACITY + 17-EDISON-CARGOES-9-REPLACED + EIA-STEO-600K-BPD-THROUGH-END-2027-CARRIES + IEA-Q3-DEFICIT-1.8-MB/D-CARRIES + QESHM-OIL-SPILL-CARRIES + IRAN-BAGHAEI-TRILLION-DOLLAR-COMPENSATION-CLAIM-CARRIES + SPR-SUB-300M-CARRIES + FORCE-MAJEURE-END-AUG-CUSP-T-~14-DAYS-COMPRESSED-FURTHER-C285. Critical 0-8h Mon-mid-day-CEST → Mon-late-evening-CEST: (a) Whether Iran-tier issues institutional-attribution-or-denial of KRG-drone-strike at Mon-later-window; (b) Whether Iraq-PM Al-Sudani institutional-response to KRG-drone-strike materializes at Mon-later-window; (c) Whether Kushner-Netanyahu-Mon-meeting readout materializes on Iran-tier + Lebanon-tier; (d) Whether Bessent-Treasury specific-sanctions-list-publication drops at Mon-afternoon-EDT / evening-CEST; (e) Whether Trump Truth Social re-signaling on Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike materializes; (f) Whether Netanyahu additional-strike-execution at Lebanon-front materializes post-Sun re-signaling; (g) Whether Hezbollah kinetic-response-tier to Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling materializes; (h) Whether cabinet-tier Islamabad-MoU-status statement from Washington materializes post-Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break; (i) Whether Iran-Oman formal-joint-statement publication at Mon-later-window (Septecuple-hold breaks); (j) Whether Iran-parliament floor-vote execution at Mon-later-window post-Sun-virtual-session; (k) Whether IAEA Grossi 59th-cycle silence-vs-break at Mon-later-window; (l) Whether P&I-insurance immediate-repricing at Mon-later-window on Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike + strait-shipping-near-zero + Bessent-sanctions-rollout; (m) Whether Brent daily-close-vs-Mon-open-gap-up institutional-market-tier reading at NYMEX-close; (n) Whether $90-threshold retested at Mon-later-window; (o) Whether additional G7-member sanctions-follow-on post-Canada; (p) Whether CENTCOM Task Force Falcon Strike operational-deployment translation post-launch-declaration + partner-name reveal; (q) Whether Bloomberg-editorial-tier dual-headline-contradiction resolution post-explicit-Iran-break; (r) Whether UAE-tier further-attribution-cadence to KRG-drone-strike; (s) Whether Qatar Ras-Laffan force-majeure end-Aug-cusp triggers force-majeure-decision at Qatar-tier (T-~14 days); (t) Whether Saudi-tier "consequences" translation to coercive-action post-KRG-drone; (u) Whether Rubio "progress made" walk-back post-explicit-Iran-break; (v) Whether US-tier convoy-escort-deployment materializes on strait-shipping-near-zero; (w) Whether fresh Hormuz-kinetic-tier strike beyond UKMTO Aug-15 bulk-carrier at Mon-later-window; (x) Whether Wikipedia-11-mb/d anchor institutional-triangulation via Kpler/Windward at Mon-later-window.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C284 → C285 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN BAGHAEI-TIER EXPLICIT 60-DAY-BREAK C1 — Iran FM spokesman: "60-day period no longer relevant because Washington had breached the agreement" (Iran International live blog Aug-17); Islamabad-MoU-dual-tier-contradiction RESOLVES via Iran-institutional-cadence explicit-break; Washington-breach blame-attribution-framing at Iran-tier.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE BREAKS VIA CROSS-BORDER KRG-DRONE-STRIKE C1 — 2 Hadid-110 drones from Iranian territory strike KRG PM Masrour Barzani office + Security Council director residence Pirmam district, Erbil; NO CASUALTIES; ~76h aggregate silence-anchor breaks via direct-territorial-launch (not proxy-mediated); Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause C284 BREAKS at C285.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 STRAIT SHIPPING NEAR-ZERO CONFIRMED C1 — Sat 5 ships → Sun 0 ships per CNBC Aug-17; lowest-transit-count-anchor of crisis; pre-expiration-cadence effective-de-facto-closure at operator-tier retreat.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU RE-SIGNALS HEZBOLLAH-FURTHER-STRIKE-OPTIONALITY C1 — Sun statement: "Israel will strike Hezbollah again if threatened" (Japan Times Aug-17); IDF confirms Abu Hassan Alaa senior Hezbollah commander KIA Aug-16 (compounds Radwan Force commander KIA Aug-15); 2-commander-KIA-48h operational-cadence.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUSHNER-NETANYAHU MON MEETING SCHEDULED C1 — Kushner post-Egypt/Hamas El Alamein Sun; Mon meeting on Gaza + regional-tier issues; multi-track US-tier institutional-cadence.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT SANCTIONS-WEEK ROLLOUT MATERIALIZING C1 — Japan Times Aug-17 "US prepares fresh Iran sanctions" institutional-framing confirmation; "one-two punch" framework; specific-list-drop pending Mon-later-window.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BRENT MID-DAY $88.31 -0.24% MODEST-REVERSAL C1 — Trading Economics Aug-17; daily-range $88.02-$89.39 preserved; institutional-market-tier consolidation-not-panic; $90-threshold not-tested.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN SEPTECUPLE-HOLD ON JOINT-STATEMENT PUBLICATION EXTENDS C1 — 17 consecutive institutional-hold-cycles at post-expiration-day-1; Baghaei "final drafting stage — technical, legal, security, environmental points"; sovereignty-framing hardens.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IAEA GROSSI 58TH-CYCLE SILENCE — 16-CYCLE-ANCHOR C1 — extends into post-expiration-day-1 window.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 TRUMP TRUTH SOCIAL — silence ~71h aggregate at Mon-mid-day-CEST.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 IRAQ-PM AL-SUDANI RESPONSE TO KRG-DRONE-STRIKE — Al-Sudani "dialogue not confrontation" CARRIES from prior-cycle context; federal-tier institutional-position on cross-border-Iranian-territorial-strike not-yet-materialized.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 G7 CASCADE — UK/Germany/France/Japan/Italy sanctions-follow-on absent.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 FRESH HOUTHI BAB-EL-MANDEB ATTACK — silence extends past ~150h+ into 7th+ day.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NO C285 IRAN OFFICIAL-ATTRIBUTION-OR-DENIAL OF KRG-DRONE-STRIKE — Iran-tier institutional-position pending.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 SPR SUB-300M CONFIRMED CARRIES — 298.7M BARRELS (Aug-7 EIA weekly, released Aug-12); first sub-300M since January-1983 = 43-year anchor-break.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 171 since Feb 28, 2026 (US-Israel Operation Epic Fury). Blockade Day 35 since July 14 blockade re-institution.

Military operations summary this cycle:

• Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause BREAKS at C285 via cross-border KRG-drone-strike from Iranian territory — 2 Hadid-110 drones strike Masrour Barzani (KRG PM) office + Security Council director residence in Pirmam district, Erbil overnight-Sun-to-Mon per Daily Sabah / Arab News / JPost / The National / France24 / Cedar News / KRG CTD; NO CASUALTIES; direct-territorial-launch not proxy-mediated.
• Lebanon-front kinetic-cadence-tier remains active via Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling on Aug-15 Ansar+Deir-al-Zahrani strikes (11 killed inc. 3 children); IDF confirms Abu Hassan Alaa senior Hezbollah commander KIA Aug-16 (compounds Radwan Force commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan KIA claim from Aug-15); "Israel will strike Hezbollah again if threatened."
• Hormuz + Bab-el-Mandeb fronts remain in kinetic-cadence-pause at C285 — no fresh strikes at maritime-tier post-UKMTO Aug-15 bulk-carrier (Hormuz) or post-Tihamah Aug-11 (Bab-el-Mandeb, ~150h+ / 7th+ day).
• Strait shipping near-zero confirmed — Sat 5 ships, Sun 0 ships per CNBC Aug-17.

Cumulative casualties:

• Iran civilian dead cumulative: 3,468 Wiki / 3,636 HRANA / 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced cumulative: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• US KIA/wounded cumulative: 18 KIA / 687 wounded CARRIES
• Lebanon Aug-15 IDF strikes: 11 killed inc. 3 children per Lebanon Health Ministry (CARRIES)
• KRG-drone-strike Aug-17: NO CASUALTIES

2. Strait Ops

3. Tanker Attack Log

Neutral-state infrastructure flag: Ras Laffan (Qatar) + SAMREF (Saudi) prior-strike-anchors CARRY at institutional-flag-tier.

IRGC friendly-fire flag: prior-cycle notations CARRY at institutional-behavior-tier.

Non-maritime cross-border strike flag (NEW C285): 2 Hadid-110 drones from Iranian territory strike KRG PM office + Security Council director residence, Pirmam district, Erbil overnight-Sun-to-Mon; NO CASUALTIES. Not tanker-tier but critical Iran-operational-attribution-silence-break marker at land-target-tier.

4. Oil Prices

• EIA August-2026 STEO CARRIES: 2026 Brent $87/b; 3Q26 $85/b; 600K bpd disruption through end-2027 — BREACHED at Mon-open $88.85 CARRIES; still-breached at mid-day $88.31
• IEA Aug-12 urgency warning CARRIES: deeper global supply deficit; widest shortfall in 5 years for 2026
• Wood Mackenzie CARRIES: "unlikely to restart all 12 operable Qatar LNG trains before late August"
• Discovery Alert CARRIES: North site 1 month, South by late summer — partial-restart granularity anchor
• Trading Economics Aug-17 mid-day: Brent $88.31 -0.24% vs prior-day
• Sprague Energy Aug-15 CARRIES: "oil prices turned higher ahead of the weekend in the absence of any confirmation of an accord"
• Wikipedia 2026-Strait-of-Hormuz-crisis reference CARRIES: >11 mb/d Middle Eastern output loss (requires institutional-triangulation)

Threshold flags: $88 breached at Mon-open $88.85 CARRIES; $88 still-breached at mid-day $88.31; $90 not-tested at C285 daily-range-upper $89.39.

5. SPR

IEA coordinated release status:

6. Bypass Infrastructure

7. Maritime Insurance

8. Shadow Fleet

Narrative-tier: No fresh C285 shadow-fleet enforcement-action publication at Mon-mid-day-CEST window. Canada Aug-15 5-official-sanctions-designation (IRGC Central HQ Abdollahi + Zolfaghari + Artesh Navy Irani + parliament-committee-secretary Azizi + others) CARRIES. Bessent-sanctions-week rollout at Mon-week may drive fresh shadow-fleet designations at Treasury-tier. GRU/Wagner militarization signals CARRIES. IRGC friendly-fire operational-failure notations CARRY. 1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet) shadow-fleet-size estimate CARRIES.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy Actions

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Iran-Baghaei explicit-60-day-break — Iran FM spokesman declares Islamabad-MoU "no longer relevant, Washington had breached the agreement"; Islamabad-MoU-dual-tier-contradiction RESOLVES via Iran-institutional-cadence; Washington-breach blame-attribution-framing at Iran-tier. Iran-institutional-position on ceasefire-extension explicit-break at C285 post-expiration-day-1. Significance: closes Islamabad-MoU as extension-mechanism from Iran-side; requires US reciprocal-concession for reconstitution.
2. Iran operational-attribution-silence breaks via cross-border KRG-drone-strike from Iranian territory — 2 Hadid-110 drones strike KRG PM Masrour Barzani office + Security Council director residence Pirmam district, Erbil overnight-Sun-to-Mon; NO CASUALTIES; ~76h aggregate silence-anchor breaks via direct-territorial-launch (not proxy-mediated). Iraq-front kinetic-cadence-pause C284 BREAKS at C285. Significance: Iran signals capability-tier + willingness-tier at leadership-tier decapitation-signaling calibrated below war-response threshold.
3. Strait shipping near-zero confirmed — Sat 5 ships → Sun 0 ships per CNBC Aug-17. Lowest-transit-count-anchor of crisis. Pre-expiration cadence effective-de-facto-closure at operator-tier retreat. Significance: institutional-market-tier reads "US total control" vs "Iran control" framing-battle as empirically resolved via operator-tier retreat-cadence.
4. Netanyahu re-signals Hezbollah-further-strike-optionality — Sun statement: "Israel will strike Hezbollah again if threatened"; IDF confirms Abu Hassan Alaa senior Hezbollah commander KIA Aug-16 (compounds Radwan Force commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan KIA Aug-15); 2-commander-KIA-48h operational-cadence-tier. Significance: Netanyahu-cabinet-tier verbal-silence at C284 BREAKS at C285; Israel-tier institutional-position now confirmed at cabinet-tier + operational-cadence-tier intensification.
5. Kushner-Netanyahu Mon meeting scheduled — Kushner met Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya + Egypt Sisi + Board of Peace director Mladenov + Tony Blair at El Alamein Sun; scheduled Netanyahu Mon on Gaza + regional-tier. Significance: Trump-admin-tier multi-track institutional-cadence (diplomatic + sanctions + kinetic) at post-expiration-day-1 window; regional-package-framing.
6. Bessent sanctions-week rollout materializing — Japan Times Aug-17 institutional-framing-tier "US prepares fresh Iran sanctions"; "one-two punch" framework CARRIES; specific-list-drop pending Mon-later-window. Significance: Aug-14 "next week" anchor MATERIALIZES via mainstream-framing-tier at post-expiration-day-1.
7. Brent mid-day $88.31 modest-reversal from Mon-open gap-up — daily-range $88.02-$89.39 preserved; institutional-market-tier consolidation-not-panic; $90-threshold not-tested. Significance: market-tier pre-priced Mon-morning cluster; Mon-open captured war-premium-widening; mid-day digest-tier.
8. Iran-Oman SEPTECUPLE-hold on joint-statement publication extends — 17 consecutive institutional-hold-cycles at post-expiration-day-1; sovereignty-framing hardens ("fees for passage — sovereign control"). Significance: Iran-tier deal-progression-tier ADVANCES + publication-tier HOLDS bifurcation extends past post-expiration threshold.
9. IAEA Grossi 58th-cycle silence — 16-cycle-anchor — extends into post-expiration-day-1 window.

(b) Structural Locks Status

• Lock-1 (Price): CONSOLIDATION at $88.31 mid-day; daily-range $88.02-$89.39 preserved — HOLDING at war-premium-band; $90 not-tested but Bessent-sanctions-week + Iran-Baghaei-break + KRG-drone risk-tier pending. TIGHTENING-POTENTIAL.
• Lock-2 (Supply): TIGHTENING VIA STRAIT-NEAR-ZERO + IRAN-EXPLICIT-BREAK + KRG-DRONE-STRIKE + IRAN-OMAN-17-CYCLE-HOLD. Sat 5 → Sun 0 ships anchor + Baghaei-explicit-break at Iran-institutional-tier + Iran-attribution-silence-break at kinetic-tier = compound-tightening at multi-vector-tier.
• Lock-3 (Insurance): TIGHTENING FURTHER — P&I non-re-entry STRUCTURALLY-HARDENED; strait-near-zero confirms operator-tier retreat; Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike compound P&I position. HARDENS.
• Lock-4 (Labor): TIGHTENING — strait-shipping-near-zero (Sat 5 → Sun 0) confirms crew-tier + operator-tier retreat; Tihamah-4-crew-fatality-anchor CARRIES. HARDENS.
• Lock-5 (Duration): TIGHTENING SIGNIFICANTLY — POST-EXPIRATION-DAY-1 + IRAN-BAGHAEI-EXPLICIT-BREAK + KRG-DRONE-STRIKE + NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALING + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK + MULTI-TRACK-US-CADENCE + KH-SEPT-30-DEADLINE-CONTEXT + AL-SUDANI-PRESSURE-HARDENS-VIA-KRG-DRONE. Extension-probability materially degraded.
• Lock-6 (Nuclear): HOLDING — IAEA-58th-cycle-silence 16-cycle-anchor; KRG-drone-strike + Lebanon-strikes conventional not nuclear-tier; Trump-veto-operationalized CARRIES.
• Lock-7 (Geographic): TIGHTENING — IRAQ-FRONT KINETIC-CADENCE-PAUSE BREAKS VIA CROSS-BORDER KRG-DRONE-STRIKE + LEBANON-FRONT ACTIVE VIA NETANYAHU-RE-SIGNALING + IDF 2-COMMANDER-KIA-48H + KUSHNER-REGIONAL-DIPLOMATIC-CADENCE.
• Lock-8 (Capability): TIGHTENING — IRAN-KINETIC-CAPABILITY-CONFIRMED-VIA-HADID-110-CROSS-BORDER-DRONE-STRIKE + DIRECT-TERRITORIAL-LAUNCH-CAPABILITY-DEMONSTRATED + CENTCOM-FALCON-STRIKE-NO-C285-OPERATIONAL-DEPLOYMENT-TRANSLATION.
• Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): TIGHTENING FURTHER — STRAIT-SHIPPING-NEAR-ZERO-CONFIRMED (LOWEST-TRANSIT-COUNT-ANCHOR-OF-CRISIS) + HOUTHI-BAB-EL-MANDEB-SILENCE-~150H+ (PARADOXICAL) + KPLER-WINDWARD-METHODOLOGY-DIVERGENCE.
• Lock-10 (Leadership): TIGHTENING — IRAN-BAGHAEI-INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION-HARDENS-VIA-EXPLICIT-BREAK + IRAN-OPERATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION-SILENCE-BREAKS-VIA-KRG-DRONE + NETANYAHU-CABINET-TIER-ACTIVE-VIA-SUN-RE-SIGNALING + KUSHNER-MULTI-TRACK-US-TIER + BESSENT-SANCTIONS-WEEK.
• Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure): TIGHTENING — QATAR-FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUG-CUSP T-~14 DAYS COMPRESSED FURTHER + 3-5-YEAR-REPAIR + IRAN-BAGHAEI-TRILLION-DOLLAR-COMPENSATION-CLAIM CARRIES.

(c) Critical Watch

1. Iran official-attribution-or-denial of KRG-drone-strike at Mon-later-window
2. Iraq-PM Al-Sudani institutional-response to KRG-drone-strike (federal-tier position on cross-border-Iranian-territorial-strike)
3. Kushner-Netanyahu Mon readout on Iran-tier + Lebanon-tier
4. Bessent Treasury specific-sanctions-list-publication at Mon-afternoon-EDT / Mon-evening-CEST
5. Trump Truth Social re-signaling on Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break + KRG-drone-strike
6. Cabinet-tier Islamabad-MoU-status statement from Washington post-Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break
7. Iran-Oman formal-joint-statement publication at Mon-later-window (Septecuple-hold-break potential)
8. Iran-parliament floor-vote execution at Mon-later-window post-Sun-virtual-session
9. IAEA Grossi 59th-cycle silence-vs-break at Mon-later-window
10. P&I-insurance immediate-repricing at Mon-later-window
11. Brent daily-close vs Mon-open-gap-up institutional-market-tier reading at NYMEX-close; $90-threshold retest potential
12. Additional G7-member sanctions-follow-on post-Canada
13. CENTCOM Task Force Falcon Strike operational-deployment translation + partner-name reveal
14. Hezbollah kinetic-response-tier to Netanyahu-Sun-re-signaling
15. Netanyahu additional-strike-execution at Lebanon-front post-Sun re-signaling
16. Qatar Ras-Laffan force-majeure end-Aug-cusp decision at Qatar-tier (T-~14 days)
17. UAE-tier further-attribution-cadence to KRG-drone-strike
18. Saudi-tier "consequences" translation to coercive-action post-KRG-drone
19. Fresh Hormuz-kinetic-tier strike beyond UKMTO Aug-15 bulk-carrier
20. Wikipedia-11-mb/d anchor institutional-triangulation via Kpler/Windward at Mon-later-window

(d) Net Assessment

C285 marks the first cycle after formal ceasefire expiration at institutional-cadence-tier with Iran-tier explicit-break RESOLVING the Islamabad-MoU-dual-contradiction that carried through prior cycles. This is a qualitative escalation-tier delta: Iran-institutional-position on ceasefire-extension has moved from ambiguous-carry-tier (C284) to explicit-break-tier (C285), and Iran-operational-tier has moved from ~76h attribution-silence to direct-territorial-drone-strike-tier at Iraq-front simultaneously. The KRG-drone-strike is particularly significant because it (a) demonstrates direct-territorial-launch-capability from Iran-tier rather than proxy-mediated attack via KH or other Iraqi militias, (b) targets leadership-tier (Barzani office + Security Council director residence) rather than infrastructure or US-military-tier, (c) produces NO CASUALTIES suggesting calibrated-signaling below war-response threshold, and (d) materializes SIMULTANEOUS with Baghaei-explicit-break + strait-shipping-near-zero + Netanyahu-re-signaling as coordinated multi-vector post-expiration escalation-signaling architecture.

The strait-shipping-near-zero anchor (Sat 5 ships → Sun 0 ships per CNBC Aug-17) empirically resolves the "US total control" vs "Iran control" framing-battle at operator-tier retreat — the market has voted with its cargo. This is the lowest-transit-count-anchor of the entire crisis and hardens Lock-2 + Lock-9 structurally. Combined with the Iran-Baghaei-explicit-break at institutional-cadence-tier, the empirical-de-facto-closure of the strait is now compounding with the political-de-jure-explicit-position at Iran-tier.

The US-tier response-cadence at Mon-later-window is now the primary structural-question: (i) Whether Bessent specific-sanctions-list drops as counter-pressure; (ii) Whether Kushner-Netanyahu readout signals policy-shift or continuity; (iii) Whether Trump Truth Social re-signaling materializes; (iv) Whether cabinet-tier Islamabad-MoU statement from Washington responds to Iran-explicit-break. The market-tier consolidation-not-panic at Brent mid-day $88.31 suggests institutional-market-tier reads Mon-later-window as consequential-but-contained; a fresh escalation-tier trigger (e.g., US direct-military-response to KRG-drone, Iran retaliation to Bessent-sanctions-drop, or Hezbollah kinetic-response at Lebanon-front) would likely test the $90 threshold. Absent such trigger, the market appears priced for structural-lock-hardening without near-term open-conflict-tier repricing.

Key uncertainties: (a) Iran-tier institutional-position on KRG-drone-strike attribution — silence-vs-claim-vs-denial; (b) Iraq-PM Al-Sudani response-cadence on cross-border-Iranian-strike (federal-tier war-response threshold); (c) Whether Bessent-sanctions-week drop specifically targets Iran-Oman deal-framework or shadow-fleet or IRGC-leadership; (d) Whether Hezbollah kinetic-response to IDF-Aug-15 escalation materializes at Lebanon-front; (e) Whether Kushner-Netanyahu Mon readout signals Trump-admin-tier openness-vs-closure on Iran-diplomatic-track post-Iran-explicit-break.

Sources

• Iran International — Live: Iran says Hormuz deal agreed with Oman, ties reopening to end of US blockade (Aug 17, 2026)
• CNBC — Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of US-Iran ceasefire expiry (Aug 17, 2026)
• Daily Sabah — Suspected Iranian drones target KRG PM Masrour Barzani's office
• Arab News — Drones attack the Kurdistan Regional Government prime minister's office in Iraq
• The National — Drone attacks target Kurdistan prime minister's office in Erbil (Aug 17, 2026)
• France 24 — Middle East live: PM's office in Iraqi Kurdistan targeted by drones from Iran (Aug 17, 2026)
• Cedar News — Iranian-Launched Drones Attack KRG Prime Minister's Office in Iraqi Kurdistan
• Japan Times — Israel strikes Lebanon as U.S. prepares fresh Iran sanctions (Aug 17, 2026)
• CNN — Aug 16, 2026: Kushner meets regional leaders as multiple conflicts roil Middle East
• Washington Post — Jared Kushner meets Hamas on Mideast trip to push Gaza deal
• Bloomberg — Iran, Oman Reach Agreement on Proposed Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
• Al Jazeera — Iran war updates: Tehran, Oman agree on route coordinates in Hormuz Strait
• Trading Economics — Brent Crude Oil Price
• Washington Times — Treasury Secretary Bessent says U.S. set to deliver unprecedented economic pain on Iran
• Bloomberg — US Readies Unprecedented 'Economic Isolation' Plan for Iran
• Fox Business — Oil in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls to lowest level since 1983
• Critical Threats — Iran Update Evening Special Report: August 13, 2026
• Al Jazeera — Top Iranian commander visited Iraq to discuss disarmament plan
• Iran International — Iran parliament advances Hormuz bill targeting US, Israeli transit
• The Aviationist — CENTCOM Launches Multinational Attack Drone Task Force 'Falcon Strike'
• Wood Mackenzie / Business Standard — Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG site may not fully resume before August
• CNBC — Houthi attack kills six in Red Sea; Trump slams Iran as hopes for Hormuz Strait deal dim
• Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis