Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-08 · Cycle 2 (C260)

War Day: 162 | Blockade Day: 26 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-8 late-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 UAE — IRAN STRUCK ADNOC TANKER WITH MISSILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ Sat-Aug-8 per Khaleej Times + Gulf News + Al Jazeera + The National + Bloomberg (AFP) + New Arab + KFGO + Bssnews.net — UAE MFA condemned "hostile Iranian attack that targeted a tanker belonging to ADNOC with a missile while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, without causing casualties"; UAE + QATAR JOINT CONDEMNATION per The National; UAE MFA called it "blatant violation" of UNSC Res 2817; framed as "act of piracy by the IRGC"; 15 ADNOC vessels attacked since war start — 3 this week alone (running-total 16 vessels UAE-flagged since war start, 1 death) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRGC SPOKESPERSON HOSSEIN MOHEBBI Sat-Aug-8 per Tasnim / APA / CryptoBriefing / Middle East Eye / Al Jazeera Aug-8-liveblog / ABC News — "Whenever the American side accepts the conditions of the Islamic Republic of Iran and abandons its interventionist approach, the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz will certainly be provided"; REOPENING "COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT" OF IRAN-OMAN TALKS — Strait-track BIFURCATES from Oman-deal-track; MAJOR C260 structural surfacing | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAQI MILITIA POSTPONEMENT CONFIRMED per ISW/Critical Threats + Prokerala + TASS — Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced Aug-7 postponement of response to US-Saudi strikes "due to mediation by Badr Organization head Hadi al Ameri" — deferral-directive formalized at coalition-tier; US-Saudi strikes killed at least 20 PMF members | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN FIRST MP MECCA-PACT RESPONSE — Ibrahim Rezaei per Iran International + Al Jazeera Aug-8-liveblog — "The agreement on paper with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as the years of unilateral hosting of the Americans did not provide them with that"; extends "roar of missiles" formal-MP-tier response | 🔴 PEZESHKIAN Sat-Aug-8 per Middle East Eye + New Kerala — "Iran open to dialogue, warns against regional divisions"; "prepared to pursue dialogue to protect national interests but will not accept demands that undermine sovereignty or defensive capabilities" | 🟡 BESSENT "TODAY OR TOMORROW" REITERATION per CryptoBriefing / CNBC + RUBIO "PROGRESS MADE BUT NOT FINALITY" — no fresh Sat-Aug-8-late substantive framework update; Trump Truth Social ambient CARRIES from C259 no Sat-morning fresh print | 🟡 FORMER TRUMP CABINET OFFICIAL "VERY BAD OUTCOME" per Fox News Aug-8 — hardline-Republican pushback frame surfacing; independent of admin-tier | 🟢 BRENT $82.15 + WTI $78.07 CARRIES Fri-Aug-7-close — weekend markets closed; Mon-Aug-10-open must now price-in UAE-ADNOC-strike + IRGC-track-bifurcation + Iran-Mecca-formal-response + Iraqi-militia-formalized-deferral | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 49 VESSELS CARRIES C259 — no fresh CENTCOM Aug-8-late print | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT CARRIES C259 — Saudi + Pakistan + Turkey trilateral bloc-formation carries; Wikipedia + CNN + Foreign Policy + Al Jazeera saturation | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUGUST CARRIES — 17%-up-to-5-years + 21-cargoes + $20B lost-revenue CARRIES; ~12.8M tonnes/yr offline CARRIES | 🟡 IRAQ-TURKEY 170-200K BPD + 750K BPD FLOOR + 1.5M BPD PIPE CARRIES per Discovery Alert / Al Jazeera Aug-1 CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 CARRIES + MOJTABA 13TH-CYCLE-PENDING | 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH-CRISIS CARRIES from C259 — Zamir sides with Bluth; Netanyahu "obscene behavior"; JPost "with or without deal" hardening CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT MFA / BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 HISTORICAL-CARRIES + FRESHLY-INVOKED BY UAE-C260 | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES | 🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 33rd CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-8 statement | 🔴 UKMTO ADNOC-C260 (NEW) + KUMZAR-SE AUG-6 CARRIES + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 CARRIES + Aug-2 "Sepah Navy" VHF CARRIES | 🔴 SPR ~304M mb / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+4 days) | Cycle: C260 (Sat-Aug-8 late-CEST ~22:00 / Sat-late-ET ~16:00, ~13h delta from C259)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timeout on Grok_outputs folder lookup (MCP-32001 timeout); THIRTY-THIRD consecutive cycle: C228→C260. Full 13-topic web sweep executed on: UAE-ADNOC-tanker-missile-strike-Aug-8 + UAE-Qatar-joint-condemnation + UAE-MFA-Resolution-2817-invocation + IRGC-Mohebbi-Aug-8-Tasnim + IRGC-track-bifurcation-from-Oman-deal + Islamic-Resistance-Iraq-postponement-formalized + ISW-Critical-Threats-Aug-7-evening + PMF-20-killed-US-Saudi-strikes + Ibrahim-Rezaei-MP-Mecca-response + Pezeshkian-Aug-8-dialogue + Bessent-Rubio-Aug-8-reiteration + Fox-News-former-Trump-cabinet-official-very-bad-outcome + Brent-WTI-weekend-closed + CENTCOM-49-carries + Mecca-Joint-Defence-Agreement-carries + Iraq-Turkey-pipeline-carries + Bahrain-UNSC-carries + IAEA-Grossi-carries-33rd-cycle + Pezeshkian-SNSC-12-of-13-carries + Mojtaba-13th-cycle-pending + Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir-Bluth-carries + Wafa-Daisy-Aug-5-carries + Saudi-Hodeidah-strike-carries + Minoan-Pioneer-Aug-3-carries + Kumzar-Aug-6-carries + Al-Rekayyat-Jul-7-carries + SPR-Aug-12-EIA-window.

Baseline: C259 / 2026-08-08 Sat-early-CEST ~09:00 (MECCA-JOINT-DEFENCE-AGREEMENT-SIGNED + IRAN-IMMEDIATE-COUNTER-RHETORIC + IRAQI-PM-SECURITY-ALERT + AL-AMERI-DEFERRAL-DIRECTIVE + SAUDI-"MULTIPLE-COORDINATED-ATTACKS"-BRACING + CENTCOM-49-VESSELS-REFRESH + WEEKEND-MARKETS-CLOSED-C258-PRICES-HOLD).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-08 C260 Sat-late-CEST ~22:00 / Sat-late-ET ~16:00, ~13h delta from C259): C260 is a UAE-ADNOC-MISSILE-STRIKE-HORMUZ-PROPER + IRGC-MOHEBBI-STRAIT-TRACK-BIFURCATION-FROM-OMAN-DEAL + IRAQI-MILITIA-POSTPONEMENT-COALITION-FORMALIZATION + IRAN-MP-FIRST-FORMAL-MECCA-PACT-RESPONSE + PEZESHKIAN-DIALOGUE-VS-SOVEREIGNTY + BESSENT-RUBIO-REITERATION + FORMER-TRUMP-CABINET-OFFICIAL-PUSHBACK + WEEKEND-MARKETS-CLOSED-C258-PRICES-HOLD + MOJTABA-13TH-CYCLE-PENDING cycle at T+~13h from C259. The C260 UAE-ADNOC missile-strike in Hormuz proper is the MOST MATERIAL FRESH KINETIC EVENT IN THE STRAIT SINCE MINOAN PIONEER Aug-3 AND THE FIRST FORMAL UAE-STATE-CONDEMNATION OF IRANIAN AGGRESSION — combined with the IRGC's Sat-Aug-8 formal-bifurcation of the Strait-track from the Iran-Oman deal-track, C260 marks a structural shift in the negotiating architecture: Iran now formally decouples the Strait-reopening from the Oman-mediated deal, making the Oman-deal a fee/revenue instrument distinct from the operational-reopening question. Seven substantive observations vs C259: (a) UAE — IRAN STRUCK ADNOC TANKER WITH MISSILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ Sat-Aug-8 per Khaleej Times + Gulf News + Al Jazeera Aug-8-liveblog + The National (Aug-8-liveblog) + Bloomberg/AFP + New Arab + Bssnews.net + KFGO + WHBL — UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement Sat-Aug-8 morning: "hostile Iranian attack that targeted a tanker belonging to ADNOC with a missile while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, without causing casualties." No injuries; vessel operational-status not-publicly-disclosed. UAE MFA framed as "blatant violation" of UNSC Res 2817 — first fresh formal-invocation of Res 2817 since Bahrain-vote. UAE MFA additionally framed as "act of piracy by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps." Qatar joined UAE condemnation per The National Aug-8-liveblog. Cumulative ADNOC vessels attacked since war start = 15 (of 16 total UAE-flagged), 3 this week alone; 1 death cumulative. This is the first formally-attributed IRGC-missile-strike on a UAE-state-oil-tanker inside the Strait since C258 blockade-day-25 reset, and the first UAE-MFA-Res-2817-invocation since the Bahrain-May-vote. Lock-3 (insurance) tightens; Lock-7 (geographic) tightens; Lock-9 (chokepoint) tightens. (b) IRGC SPOKESPERSON HOSSEIN MOHEBBI Sat-Aug-8 per Tasnim News Agency + APA + CryptoBriefing + Middle East Eye + Al Jazeera Aug-8-liveblog + ABC News — "Whenever the American side accepts the conditions of the Islamic Republic of Iran and abandons its interventionist approach, the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz will certainly be provided." CRITICAL C260 STRUCTURAL SHIFT: Mohebbi additionally stated the Strait-reopening "has its own specific mechanism and has nothing to do with the negotiations between Iran and Oman" — the Strait-track is now formally BIFURCATED from the Iran-Oman deal-track at the IRGC-institutional-tier. Mohebbi framed the Strait in "Islamic Republic's calculations" as "not merely an economic passage and waterway but rather represents the country's superior geopolitical capacity and power" — sovereignty-and-power framing, not commercial-fee framing. This resolves the C258-C259 puzzle: the US-ban-clause + hostile-country-compensation clause was Iran-Oman-track content Iran wanted the US to swallow AS A DEAL, but the IRGC-tier is now signaling the operational-reopening is a SEPARATE question conditional on US-full-acceptance-of-Iran's-conditions — a two-step process: (i) sign Iran-Oman fee/revenue deal, (ii) IRGC unilaterally-permits reopening if-and-when US-conditions-met. Lock-5 (Duration) TIGHTENS structurally. (c) IRAQI MILITIA POSTPONEMENT FORMALIZED AT COALITION-TIER per ISW/Critical Threats Aug-7-evening + Prokerala + TASS — Islamic Resistance in Iraq (coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias) announced Aug-7 that it would postpone its response to recent US-Saudi strikes on militia positions in Iraq due to mediation by Badr Organization head Hadi al Ameri. US-Saudi strikes killed at least 20 members of Iran-backed PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces). Al Ameri "postpone any reaction to the American-Saudi aggression and to bite the wound for the greater good of Iraq" formalized-C260 at coalition-tier. This CONFIRMS the C259 near-term Iraq-front kinetic-catalyst is deferred (though not extinguished; structural risk carries; Sep-30 disarmament deadline separate carries). Combined with UAE-ADNOC-strike C260, the kinetic-signal is that Iran is redirecting escalation from Iraq-front (deferred) to Strait-of-Hormuz-proper (executed today) — pattern-consistent with sovereignty-framing over commercial-framing. (d) IRAN FIRST MP MECCA-PACT RESPONSE — Ibrahim Rezaei per Iran International + Al Jazeera Aug-8-liveblog — Member of Iranian Parliament National Security Committee: "The Saudis must realise that the agreement on paper with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as the years of unilateral hosting of the Americans did not provide them with that." Extends the C259 "roar of missiles" framing into first-Iranian-formal-MP-tier response naming Rezaei as speaker. Rhetoric-tier only; no operational-tier response to Mecca pact yet. Note: Ibrahim Rezaei (MP) is distinct from Mohsen Rezaei (Leader's Military Adviser) — both are hardliner-tier but Ibrahim's MP-tier statement carries less institutional-weight than a Mohsen-Rezaei-tier statement would. (e) PEZESHKIAN Sat-Aug-8 per Middle East Eye + New Kerala — "Iran open to dialogue, warns against regional divisions"; "Tehran is prepared to pursue dialogue to protect its national interests but will not accept demands that undermine its sovereignty or defensive capabilities." This is Pezeshkian's Sat-Aug-8 modulation of C259's "will not yield to coercion" — softer-tone-but-carries-red-line. Consistent with Iran-Oman-deal-final-stages framing. (f) BESSENT + RUBIO REITERATION per CryptoBriefing + CNBC — Bessent: deal could come "today or tomorrow" to "open the strait and move towards a more normalised position"; Rubio: "progress made" but "not finality yet." The IRGC-Mohebbi-C260 statement contradicts the Bessent/Rubio "today or tomorrow" framing — the Iran-Oman deal ≠ the Strait-reopening per IRGC's Sat-Aug-8 formalization. This is the C260 operative-collision: US-tier is treating deal-signing as reopening; IRGC-tier is bifurcating them. Mon-Aug-10-open must price-in this bifurcation. (g) FORMER TRUMP CABINET OFFICIAL "VERY BAD OUTCOME" per Fox News Digital Aug-8 — Former Trump cabinet official calls Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal a "very bad outcome" — hardline-Republican pushback surfacing at former-official-tier; independent of admin-tier; but signals internal-Republican-fracture-risk on deal-frame. Lock-10 (US-side leadership) partially-tightens. NO FRESH C260 SIGNALS IN: Fresh Iran-Oman joint FINAL statement publication (Sat-Aug-8-late); Trump Sat-morning-late Truth Social; Mohsen Rezaei formal statement (only Ibrahim Rezaei MP-tier); Baghaei-MFA fresh Aug-8 statement; IAEA Grossi Aug-8 statement (33rd cycle); Bahrain UNSC fresh formal-vote leveraging UAE-Res-2817-invocation; Mojtaba formal sign-off (13th cycle pending); EIA weekly (T+4 days); Israeli cabinet reshuffle post-Bluth-Zamir; formal Saudi-Yemen fresh Sat kinetic post-C259 Hodeidah-strike; Pakistan clarification on Article-5-obligation vis-à-vis Iran. All C259 CARRIES apply where not superseded: Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed CARRIES; MP "roar of missiles" + Pezeshkian "will not yield" CARRIES; Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi military-high-alert CARRIES; Al Ameri deferral-directive CARRIES; Saudi bracing-for-multiple-coordinated-attacks CARRIES; CENTCOM 49 vessels CARRIES; US-ban-clause + Trump-admin-rejection CARRIES; Trump "moving along" CARRIES; Iran-Oman coordinates-agreed CARRIES; joint-statement "final drafting" CARRIES; route-mechanics two-lane + fee-split CARRIES; Iran 4-commitment US-conditions CARRIES; Netanyahu-CBS uranium-removal endorsement CARRIES + JPost-"with-or-without-deal" hardening CARRIES; Katz-Zamir-Bluth open cabinet-military-rupture CARRIES; Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 kinetic-execution CARRIES; Saudi-Hodeidah strike-retaliation Aug-7 CARRIES; Houthi 12-missile-retaliation Hadramout+Marib CARRIES; EIA Aug-5 SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey 1-year pipeline deal Aug-1 + 170-200K bpd CARRIES; Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES; Baghaei "warns of third party obstruction" CARRIES; CENTCOM 2-disabled + 2-boarded CARRIES; Qatari drafts "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1-10% CARRIES; IRGC-media denial CARRIES; Mohsen Rezaei state-TV counter CARRIES; Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant CARRIES; Trump-last-chance-decapitation CARRIES; IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat CARRIES; IRGC MQ-9-Reaper-shootdown Aug-3 CARRIES (no Pentagon-response 9+ cycles); CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug per Reuters CARRIES; OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd CARRIES; Iraq Basra Aug 2.93 mb/d planned CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; Kuwait MFA + Bahrain UNSC HISTORICAL CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target-list CARRIES; QatarEnergy 33 US-LNG-hedge CARRIES; Trump-Hegseth-Camp-David-clash April-precedent-bounded CARRIES; US munitions "dangerously low" CARRIES + Trump Aug-6 "massive amounts" counter-CARRIES; Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 CARRIES; "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES; Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES; Kumzar Aug-6 CARRIES. C259 → C260 KEY DELTAS: (1) UAE — IRAN STRUCK ADNOC TANKER WITH MISSILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ Sat-Aug-8 — UAE + Qatar joint-condemnation + UAE-Res-2817-invocation + "act of piracy by IRGC." (2) IRGC-MOHEBBI Sat-Aug-8 STRAIT-TRACK BIFURCATION — Strait-reopening "completely independent" of Iran-Oman talks; conditional on US-full-acceptance. (3) IRAQI MILITIA POSTPONEMENT FORMALIZED AT COALITION-TIER — ISW/Critical Threats + Prokerala + TASS confirm Islamic Resistance in Iraq Aug-7 postponement per Al Ameri mediation; 20 PMF killed context. (4) IRAN FIRST MP MECCA-PACT RESPONSE — Ibrahim Rezaei (MP) "agreement on paper will not bring security." (5) PEZESHKIAN Sat-Aug-8 "OPEN TO DIALOGUE + SOVEREIGNTY-RED-LINE" — modulation of C259 "will not yield." (6) BESSENT/RUBIO REITERATION — "today or tomorrow" + "progress but not finality"; contradicted by IRGC-bifurcation. (7) FORMER TRUMP CABINET OFFICIAL "VERY BAD OUTCOME" — hardline-Republican pushback via Fox News. Structural locks (C259 → C260): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES + WEEKEND-CLOSED — Brent $82.15 / WTI $78.07 spread $4.08 HOLDS; Mon-open must price-in UAE-strike + IRGC-bifurcation + Iraq-deferral; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS; Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES + UAE-ADNOC-STRIKE-RISK-TIGHTENING-C260 — Iraq-Turkey 170-200K + OPEC+ Sep-hike + CPC 1.66 + Kpler ~1 CARRIES; UAE-tanker-attack-frequency 3-this-week now-formally-acknowledged; Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDING-HARDENED-C260 — UAE-Res-2817-invocation + "act of piracy" framing hardens insurance-tier; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES; Lock-5 (Duration) IRGC-BIFURCATION-BLOCKS-C260 — MAJOR: IRGC-tier bifurcates Strait-track from Oman-deal-track; US-Bessent/Rubio "today or tomorrow" framing directly contradicted by IRGC-Mohebbi Sat-Aug-8; content-collision persists + operational-track-separation now-formal; Lock-6 (Nuclear) CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + IAEA-33RD-CYCLE-NO-STAFF; Lock-7 (Geographic) MULTI-FRONT-CARRIES + IRAQI-MILITIA-DEFERRAL-FORMALIZED-C260 + STRAIT-KINETIC-EXECUTED-C260 — Iraq-front kinetic-catalyst deferred-formalized; Strait-front kinetic-catalyst executed via UAE-ADNOC; net-shift from Iraq-to-Strait; Lock-8 (Capability) BOUNDED-CARRIES; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) STRAIT-KINETIC-EXECUTED-C260 + SAUDI-BRACING-CARRIES; Lock-10 (Leadership) SNSC-12-OF-13-CARRIES + MOJTABA-13TH-CYCLE-PENDING + ZAMIR-BLUTH-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-DIALOGUE-MODULATION-C260 + FORMER-TRUMP-CABINET-PUSHBACK-C260; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-END-AUGUST-CARRIES. Critical 0-8h Sat-Aug-8-late-ET + 0-16h Sun-Aug-9 + 0-24h Mon-Aug-10 + 0-48h Tue-Aug-11: (a) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes Sun/Mon; (b) Whether US-formal-response to IRGC-Mohebbi-track-bifurcation materializes (Bessent/Rubio/Trump); (c) Whether UAE-ADNOC-strike triggers CENTCOM operational-response (kinetic vs escort-expansion); (d) Whether Bahrain UNSC leverages UAE-Res-2817-invocation for fresh formal-vote; (e) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU (13th cycle pending); (f) Whether Iran-formal-tier (Baghaei/Mohsen Rezaei) issues Sun-Mon statement on IRGC-bifurcation and/or UAE-condemnation; (g) Whether Iraqi-militia adheres to formalized-deferral through Sun-Mon; (h) Whether Saudi-Houthi kinetic escalates further Sun/Mon; (i) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis triggers cabinet-reshuffle; (j) Whether IAEA Grossi Aug-9/10 statement materializes; (k) Whether fresh Hormuz-proper tanker-kinetic materializes post-ADNOC-strike; (l) Whether Iran-formal-response to Ibrahim-Rezaei-MP-tier escalates via Mohsen-Rezaei / Mousavi / Baghaei / Pezeshkian; (m) Mon-Aug-10-open Brent direction — sub-$80 = de-escalation-pricing; above-$90 = collapse-pricing given IRGC-bifurcation; (n) Whether Israeli "round 2" strike-plan advances leveraging Mecca-pact regional-cover + UAE-strike-pretext; (o) Whether Pentagon aide-suspensions materialize (April-precedent); (p) Whether US formally endorses or distances-from Mecca pact given UAE-strike-C260; (q) Whether Pakistan clarifies nuclear-capability commitment vis-à-vis Iran given UAE-strike; (r) Whether Oman-mediator-role formally stresses given IRGC-bifurcation + UAE-strike; (s) Whether Qatar-formal-condemnation-of-Iran escalates given end-August-force-majeure + UAE-strike-joint-condemnation-C260.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C259 → C260 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 UAE — IRAN STRUCK ADNOC TANKER WITH MISSILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ Sat-Aug-8-C260 per Khaleej Times + Gulf News + Al Jazeera + The National + Bloomberg/AFP + New Arab + KFGO + Bssnews.net — UAE MFA + Qatar joint-condemnation; UAE-Res-2817-invocation; "act of piracy by IRGC"; 15 ADNOC / 16 total UAE-flagged since war start (3 this week).

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRGC SPOKESPERSON HOSSEIN MOHEBBI Sat-Aug-8 — STRAIT-TRACK BIFURCATION FROM OMAN-DEAL-TRACK-C260 per Tasnim + APA + Middle East Eye + Al Jazeera Aug-8-liveblog — Strait-reopening "completely independent" of Iran-Oman talks; conditional on US-full-acceptance-of-Iran's-conditions.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAQI MILITIA POSTPONEMENT FORMALIZED AT COALITION-TIER-C260 per ISW/Critical Threats + Prokerala + TASS — Islamic Resistance in Iraq Aug-7 postponement per Al Ameri mediation; 20 PMF killed in US-Saudi strikes.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN FIRST MP MECCA-PACT RESPONSE-C260 — Ibrahim Rezaei (MP) "agreement on paper with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security."

• 🟡 PEZESHKIAN Sat-Aug-8 "OPEN TO DIALOGUE + SOVEREIGNTY-RED-LINE" — modulation of C259 "will not yield."

• 🟡 BESSENT/RUBIO REITERATION — "today or tomorrow" + "progress but not finality"; contradicted by IRGC-bifurcation-C260.

• 🟡 FORMER TRUMP CABINET OFFICIAL "VERY BAD OUTCOME" per Fox News Digital Aug-8-C260 — hardline-Republican pushback surfacing.

• 🟡 WEEKEND MARKETS CLOSED C260 — Brent $82.15 / WTI $78.07 Fri-Aug-7-close HOLDS; Mon-Aug-10-open watch.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 MECCA JOINT DEFENCE AGREEMENT SIGNED CARRIES C259 — Saudi + Pakistan + Turkey trilateral bloc-formation.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 49 VESSELS CARRIES C259 — no fresh CENTCOM Aug-8 print.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + COMPENSATION FROM HOSTILE COUNTRIES — TRUMP ADMIN EXPLICIT REJECTION CARRIES from C258 — content-collision persists.

• 🟡 TRUMP "MOVING ALONG" CARRIES from C258 — no fresh Sat-Aug-8-late Truth Social.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ-ZAMIR BLUTH CRISIS CARRIES from C258 — JPost "with or without deal" hardening CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE END-AUGUST CARRIES from C258.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTED-MoU CARRIES — 13th cycle Mojtaba formal sign-off pending.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN 4-COMMITMENT US-CONDITIONS CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT WITHOUT IRANIAN TOLLS" CARRIES + CONCRETE-COLLISION-CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BAGHAEI "THIRD PARTY OBSTRUCTION" CARRIES + MATERIALIZED-C258 IN TRUMP-REJECTION.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY AUG-5 KINETIC CARRIES + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION C258 CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL CARRIES + JPOST-HARDENED CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 MOHSEN REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES; no fresh C260 Mohsen-Rezaei-tier print.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" CARRIES + TRUMP AUG-6 "MASSIVE AMOUNTS" COUNTER-CARRIES + APRIL-PRECEDENT-BOUNDED.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES — bounded by munitions-constraint.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — No Pentagon-response 9+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG CARRIES per Reuters.

• 🟢🟡 IRAQ BASRA AUG 2.93 MB/D PLANNED CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES; no fresh Kuwait target C260.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN RETALIATION-PLAN 5-GULF-STATE CARRIES — UAE-ADNOC-C260 validates.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 HISTORICAL-CARRIES + UAE FRESH INVOCATION-C260; NO fresh Bahrain formal-vote yet C260.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 33rd CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-8 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED + IRGC-MOHEBBI-BIFURCATION-C260 formalizes closure separately from Oman-deal-track.

• 🔴 FRESH C260 UAE-ADNOC MISSILE STRIKE IN HORMUZ-PROPER; UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 CARRIES; Aug-2 "Sepah Navy" VHF CARRIES.

• 🔴 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE PENDING C260 — 13th cycle pending.

• 🔴 SPR ~304M MB / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+4 days).

1. Conflict Status

War Day 162 / Ceasefire STATUS: IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-STATEMENT-IN-FINAL-STAGES + US-BAN-CLAUSE-FAULT-LINE-CARRIES + TRUMP-ADMIN-EXPLICIT-REJECTION-CARRIES + MECCA-JOINT-DEFENCE-AGREEMENT-CARRIES-C259 + UAE-ADNOC-MISSILE-STRIKE-HORMUZ-PROPER-C260 + IRGC-MOHEBBI-STRAIT-TRACK-BIFURCATION-C260 + IRAQI-MILITIA-POSTPONEMENT-FORMALIZED-C260 + IRAN-FIRST-MP-MECCA-RESPONSE-C260 + PEZESHKIAN-DIALOGUE-MODULATION-C260 + BESSENT-RUBIO-REITERATION-C260 + FORMER-TRUMP-CABINET-PUSHBACK-C260 + WEEKEND-MARKETS-CLOSED. C260 confirms: (a) UAE ADNOC missile-strike in Hormuz proper — first UAE-state-oil-tanker strike since war start-tempo-refresh; UAE + Qatar joint-condemnation; UAE-Res-2817-invocation; "act of piracy by IRGC" framing; (b) IRGC Sat-Aug-8 formal bifurcation — Strait-reopening "completely independent" of Iran-Oman deal; MAJOR structural shift in negotiating architecture; (c) Iraqi militia postponement formalized at coalition-tier per ISW/Critical Threats; 20 PMF killed context; (d) Ibrahim Rezaei MP first Mecca-pact response; (e) Pezeshkian dialogue-vs-sovereignty modulation; (f) Bessent/Rubio "today or tomorrow" reiteration contradicted by IRGC-bifurcation; (g) Former Trump cabinet official Fox News "very bad outcome"; (h) Weekend markets closed — C258/C259 prices hold; Mon-Aug-10-open must price-in all C260 signals. War cost $37.5B+ CARRIES. C259 → C260 (~13h delta Sat-early-CEST → Sat-late-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C260 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — US-BAN-FAULT-LINE-CARRIES + IRGC-MOHEBBI-STRAIT-TRACK-BIFURCATION-C260 contradicts Bessent/Rubio framing; SNSC 12-of-13 CARRIES; Mojtaba 13th cycle pending
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened-CARRIES + Katz-Zamir-Bluth-open-rupture-CARRIES
• 🟢🟢🔴 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement "final stages" CARRIES; IRGC-Mohebbi-C260 bifurcates Strait-reopening from Oman-deal-track; content-blocking on US-ban clause CARRIES
• 🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Qatar joined UAE-condemnation of Iran-ADNOC-strike-C260
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened-CARRIES
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-JPost-hardened + IAEA-no-staff CARRIES 33rd cycle
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint + Saudi-retaliation — Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES + Saudi-Hodeidah-strike-C258 CARRIES
• 🟡 Iraq-front — Islamic Resistance in Iraq postponement formalized at coalition-tier-C260 per ISW; 20 PMF killed context
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Sunni-bloc-formation-leg — Mecca Joint Defence Agreement CARRIES; Iran first MP formal response Ibrahim Rezaei-C260
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW C260 UAE-Iran-tanker-strike-leg — UAE-MFA condemnation + Qatar joint + Res-2817-invocation + "IRGC piracy"

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW UAE-Iran ADNOC missile-strike in Strait of Hormuz Sat-Aug-8
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW IRGC Mohebbi Sat-Aug-8 Strait-track bifurcation from Oman-deal
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iraqi militia (Islamic Resistance) postponement formalized at coalition-tier
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Ibrahim Rezaei (MP) first Mecca-pact response
• 🟡 NEW Pezeshkian "open to dialogue + sovereignty red-line"
• 🟡 NEW Bessent/Rubio Sat-Aug-8 reiteration
• 🟡 NEW Former Trump cabinet official Fox News "very bad outcome"
• 🟡 CARRIES Brent $82.15 / WTI $78.07 Fri-Aug-7-close (weekend markets closed)
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES MP "roar of missiles" + Pezeshkian "will not yield to coercion"
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi security-level high-alert
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES Hadi Al Ameri deferral-directive (now formalized-C260)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Saudi Arabia bracing for "multiple coordinated attacks"
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES CENTCOM 49 vessels
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US-ban-clause + Trump-admin-rejection
• 🟡 CARRIES Trump "moving along" Bloomberg Fri-late
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis; JPost "with or without deal"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Iran-Oman coordinates agreed + joint-statement "final stages"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran 4-commitment US-conditions (Gharibabadi list)
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Pezeshkian SNSC 12/13 voted MoU-with-US
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial + Mohsen Rezaei hardliner two-phase-Trump-counter
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu CBS 60 Minutes uranium-removal endorsement
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + APRIL-BOUNDED US munitions + Trump Aug-6 "massive amounts" counter
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant + Trump-decapitation-frame
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 Reaper shootdown Aug-3 (no Pentagon-response 9+ cycles)
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug expected per Reuters
• 🟢 CARRIES OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd ratified
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 + MFA-UNSC-2817-invocation
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure guidance
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff in Iran + satellite-only (33rd cycle)
• 🟢 CARRIES Al Areesh delivery + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS
• 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 CARRIES
• 🔴 Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 provenance CARRIES
• 🔴 Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 engine-room strike CARRIES
• 🔴 "Sepah Navy" VHF Aug-2 CARRIES
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC formal vote C260
• 🔴 Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response PENDING C260 (13th cycle) — SNSC-12-of-13 CARRIES

• All casualty figures CARRY unchanged from C259 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~13h window)
• NEW C260 casualty context: 20 PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces) killed in US-Saudi strikes per ISW/Critical Threats (retroactive-attribution now-explicit; not fresh casualties but explicit-attribution now-public)
• Total war deaths: 8,981–18,315 per militaryspend.org CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wikipedia / 3,636 HRANA / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,333+ killed (Ministry of Public Health Jul-28 update) / 12,236 wounded / 1.2M+ displaced CARRIES
• US KIA/wounded: 18 killed / 687 wounded (of which 4 killed / 270 wounded since Jul-7) per DCAS per CNN Aug-4 CARRIES
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss $ tally per Bloomberg: ~$1B / 24+ airframes ~20% pre-war inventory CARRIES
• UAE tanker attacks cumulative: 16 vessels since war start (15 ADNOC), 3 this week (incl. Sat-Aug-8 ADNOC-C260), 1 death cumulative

Net ceasefire trajectory C260: The C259 Mecca-pact-strategic-bloc-formation has been JOINED by C260 IRGC-Mohebbi-STRAIT-TRACK-BIFURCATION and UAE-ADNOC-missile-strike-Hormuz-proper that together transform the deal-frame from "Iran-Oman deal = Strait reopening" to "Iran-Oman deal = fee/revenue instrument; Strait reopening = separate IRGC-controlled operational question conditional on US-full-acceptance". This is a MAJOR structural downshift on ceasefire-optimism: the C259 base-case (35-50% Sat-Mon-Tue Aug-8-11 modified-partial announcement, 30-40% slippage, 15-25% deal-collapse tail) is RE-REVISED-DOWNWARD-C260: revised C260 base-case 25-40% Mon-Tue-Wed Aug-10-12 Iran-Oman-fee-deal-only announcement (Strait-operational-reopening remains conditional on IRGC-track separately), 35-45% Tue-Wed-Thu slippage into Aug-12-14, 20-30% deal-collapse tail. The Iraq-front deferral-formalized-C260 partially-offsets on near-term kinetic-risk but does not offset the structural downshift from IRGC-bifurcation + UAE-tanker-strike. Mon-Aug-10-open Brent direction: expected modestly-higher on IRGC-bifurcation + UAE-strike offset by Iraq-deferral-formalization; expected range $82-$87 open.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: 93+ vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES from prior cycles + UAE-ADNOC-C260); 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi blockade; 16 UAE-flagged since war start (15 ADNOC); C260 window (~13h) fresh: 1 UAE-ADNOC missile-strike in Strait of Hormuz per UAE-MFA + Al Jazeera + Khaleej Times + Gulf News + The National + Bloomberg/AFP.

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C260; CARRIES from prior cycles.

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts (CARRIES from C258/C259):

• Goldman: $85-95 Q3 range CARRIES
• JPM: "$95 midpoint if deal materializes; $110-125 if collapse" CARRIES
• EIA STEO Aug: $88.9 forecast CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE
• Bloomberg/oilprice.com: "market pricing 60% probability of interim deal" CARRIES — C260 IRGC-bifurcation likely-reduces interim-deal-probability at Mon-open pricing

• IRGC-Mohebbi Sat-Aug-8 Strait-track bifurcation — Mon-open must price-in bilateral-mechanism-separate-from-Oman-deal
• UAE-ADNOC missile-strike Sat-Aug-8 — Mon-open must price-in Iran-retaliation-plan-5-Gulf-state validation + UAE-Res-2817-invocation
• Bessent/Rubio Sat-Aug-8 "today or tomorrow / progress but not finality" — reiteration; contradicted by IRGC-Mohebbi
• Iraqi militia postponement formalized — bearish-risk-signal (Iraq-front kinetic-catalyst deferred)
• Ibrahim Rezaei MP first Mecca-pact response — modest hardliner-signal (rhetoric-tier)
• Former Trump cabinet official Fox News "very bad outcome" — internal-Republican-fracture-signal
• Pezeshkian "open to dialogue + sovereignty red-line" — softer Iran-tone; modest offset
• Trump "moving along" CARRIES from C258 — no fresh Sat-Aug-8-late Truth Social

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status

Country reserves matrix

Announcement-vs-physical-delivery gap CARRIES: IEA-400M-announced Mar-11; ~17.5M actually delivered by end-April; running-total ~7-fold-lag persists CARRIES.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

• Pre-war Hormuz volume: ~20 mb/d crude + LNG
• Current bypass total (adjusted): ~7-8 mb/d realistic (E-W 4.5 + ADCOP 1.4 + Iraq-Turkey 0.17-0.20 + Oman 0.4 + Cape rerouting ~1-2)
• GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable CARRIES — structural shortfall no amount of rerouting can close
• Iraq-Turkey pipeline long-term target > 1 mb/d after Basra-Haditha-Kirkuk-Ceyhan CARRIES per Discovery Alert
• UAE-ADNOC-strike-C260 raises UAE-ADCOP-infrastructure-risk profile — direct-infrastructure not yet targeted but tanker-strike-frequency-signals-escalation-continuity

7. Maritime Insurance

Cost per VLCC voyage: Pre-war $250-300K → Current $800K-$21M per voyage CARRIES per marinenewsnetwork.

8. Shadow Fleet

C260 fresh signals: NONE in ~13h window.

Cumulative CARRIES:

• Shadow fleet size: 1,400+ vessels (~25% of global tanker fleet) CARRIES
• No new C260 seizures, sanctions designations, or enforcement actions
• GRU/Wagner militarization CARRIES
• Arctic Metagaz-type incident risk CARRIES
• Iran shadow-fleet friendly-fire CARRIES (no fresh)

9. Country Response Matrix

Belligerents (C260 deltas only):

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C260 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. UAE — Iran struck ADNOC tanker with missile in Strait of Hormuz Sat-Aug-8 — first formally-UAE-state-attributed Iranian IRGC-missile-strike on UAE-state-oil-tanker in the Strait; UAE MFA + Qatar joint-condemnation; UAE-Res-2817-invocation for first time since Bahrain-May-vote; "act of piracy by IRGC" framing; 15 ADNOC / 16 UAE-flagged since war start, 3 this week alone.
2. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi Sat-Aug-8 — STRAIT-track bifurcation from Oman-deal-track — MAJOR structural shift: Strait-reopening "completely independent" of Iran-Oman talks; conditional on US "fully accepting Iran's conditions."
3. Iraqi militia postponement formalized at coalition-tier — Islamic Resistance in Iraq Aug-7 postponement per Al Ameri mediation per ISW/Critical Threats + Prokerala + TASS; 20 PMF killed in US-Saudi strikes.
4. Iran first MP formal Mecca-pact response — Ibrahim Rezaei (MP) "agreement on paper with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security."
5. Pezeshkian Sat-Aug-8 dialogue-vs-sovereignty modulation — softer tone but retains red-line; consistent with Iran-Oman-deal-final-stages framing.
6. Bessent/Rubio Sat-Aug-8 reiteration — "today or tomorrow" + "progress but not finality"; directly-contradicted by IRGC-Mohebbi-bifurcation.
7. Former Trump cabinet official Fox News "very bad outcome" — internal-Republican-fracture-signal on deal-frame.

(b) Structural Locks Status (C260)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟡 VOLATILE-CARRIES + WEEKEND-CLOSED-C260 — Brent $82.15 / WTI $78.07 spread $4.08 HOLDS; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS. HOLDING (weekend); Mon-open bullish-risk from IRGC-bifurcation + UAE-strike.
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES + UAE-ADNOC-STRIKE-TIGHTENING-C260 — Iraq-Turkey 170-200K + OPEC+ Sep-hike + CPC 1.66 + Kpler ~1 + EIA-SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES; UAE-tanker-strike-frequency-signal marginally-tightens. LOOSENING net (marginal reversal risk).
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED-C260 — Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1-10% CARRIES; P&I ALL-withdrawn CARRIES; UAE-ADNOC-strike C260 + IRGC-bifurcation C260 both further-harden P&I re-entry-blocker. TIGHTENING (from HOLDING).
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES — Crew refusal + fixture cancellation persistent. HOLDING.
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴 IRGC-MOHEBBI-BIFURCATION-BLOCKS-C260 (MAJOR) — Strait-track formally separated from Oman-deal-track at IRGC-institutional-tier; content-collision (US-ban-clause) persists; Oman-mediator-role diminished; Bessent/Rubio "today or tomorrow" framing directly contradicted. TIGHTENING (structural, MAJOR-C260).
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + IAEA-33RD-CYCLE-NO-STAFF + PAKISTAN-NUCLEAR-CAPABILITY-IN-MECCA-PACT-CARRIES. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🟡 MIXED-C260 — Iraq-militia-deferral FORMALIZED at coalition-tier (near-term de-risking); UAE-ADNOC-strike executed C260 (Strait-front kinetic-catalyst); net-shift from Iraq-to-Strait; Mecca-bloc-formation CARRIES. MIXED (near-term de-risking Iraq; near-term tightening Strait).
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED-BY-APRIL-PRECEDENT-CARRIES + PAKISTAN-CAPABILITY-CARRIES + TURKISH-FLEET-MINESWEEPING-OPTION-CARRIES. TIGHTENING but bounded near-term.
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-WAFA-DAISY-CARRIES + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE-RETALIATION-CARRIES + SAUDI-BRACING-CARRIES + UAE-ADNOC-STRIKE-IN-HORMUZ-PROPER-C260 — Multi-front kinetic-execution ELEVATED-C260. TIGHTENING (structural + fresh C260 execution).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-CARRIES + MOJTABA-13TH-CYCLE-PENDING + ISRAELI-KATZ-ZAMIR-BLUTH-RUPTURE-CARRIES + PEZESHKIAN-DIALOGUE-MODULATION-C260 + FORMER-TRUMP-CABINET-PUSHBACK-C260 — Iranian internal-split CARRIES with Pezeshkian-softening; US-side internal-Republican-fracture-signal emerges; Israeli cabinet-military rupture CARRIES. MIXED with US-side-tightening-signal-emerging-C260.
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴 QATAR-END-AUGUST-CARRIES + $20B-LOST-REVENUE + 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT. HOLDING.

(c) Critical Watch (0-72h C260)

1. US-formal-response to IRGC-Mohebbi-track-bifurcation — Whether Bessent/Rubio/Trump publicly-acknowledge or dismiss IRGC-institutional-tier bifurcation; expected Sun/Mon Truth Social + Bessent-CNBC or Rubio-CBS.
2. CENTCOM operational-response to UAE-ADNOC-strike — Whether kinetic-response (unlikely given Trump-cancel-signal) or escort-expansion (more-likely) materializes Sun/Mon.
3. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication — Sun/Mon window; would require US-ban-clause dropped/reframed OR US-acceptance-of-bifurcation-framework.
4. UAE-Res-2817-invocation escalation — Whether Bahrain-UNSC produces fresh Iran-condemnation vote leveraging UAE-C260-invocation Sun/Mon.
5. Mojtaba-Khamenei sign-off — 13th cycle pending; SNSC-12-of-13 vote CARRIES.
6. Iran-formal-tier statements Sun/Mon — Whether Baghaei / Mohsen Rezaei / Pezeshkian formalize IRGC-Mohebbi framework or moderate it.
7. Iraqi-militia adherence to formalized-deferral — Sun/Mon window; whether coalition-tier-postponement holds or break-ranks.
8. Brent Mon-Aug-10-open — expected range $82-$87; sub-$80 = de-escalation-pricing (unlikely); above-$90 = collapse-pricing.
9. Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis — whether cabinet-reshuffle or leverage of UAE-strike-pretext for "round 2" Israeli-strike-plan advance.
10. Saudi-Houthi Sun/Mon — kinetic-escalation continuation-risk post-Hodeidah-strike + 12-missile-retaliation; Saudi-bracing acknowledged.
11. Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic Sun/Mon — UAE-ADNOC-C260 + Kumzar-Aug-6 + Minoan Pioneer Aug-3 + Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 pattern continues.
12. EIA next weekly Aug-12 — T+4 days; SPR-draw continuation signal.
13. IAEA Grossi Aug-9/10 — 33-cycle silence; any statement material.
14. Pentagon aide-suspensions — April-precedent-pattern watch-continues.
15. US Mecca-pact + UAE-Res-2817-invocation posture — Whether Trump admin endorses (Sunni-bloc-alignment) or distances (deal-facilitation-priority) given UAE-strike-C260.
16. Pakistan Article-5 clarification — Given UAE-strike-C260, whether Pakistan clarifies nuclear-obligation scope re Iran.
17. Oman-mediator-role future — Given IRGC-Mohebbi-diminishment, whether Oman formally-adjusts scope or steps-back.
18. Qatar-response escalation — Given Qatar joined UAE-condemnation-C260 + Qatar-force-majeure end-August, whether Qatar-tier statement escalates beyond joint-condemnation.
19. Fox News former-Trump-cabinet pushback amplification — Whether other former-officials or current-admin-officials echo "very bad outcome" frame.

(d) Net Assessment

Overall crisis trajectory C260: The C258-C259 concrete-content-collision (US-ban-clause-rejection) + strategic-bloc-formation (Mecca pact) has been JOINED by C260 IRGC-Mohebbi-STRAIT-track-BIFURCATION-from-Oman-deal-track and UAE-ADNOC-missile-strike-in-Hormuz-proper — together these transform the negotiating architecture from "Iran-Oman deal = Strait reopening" to "Iran-Oman deal = fee/revenue instrument; Strait-reopening = separate IRGC-controlled operational question conditional on US-full-acceptance-of-Iran's-conditions". The C260 IRGC-bifurcation is the MOST MATERIAL LOCK-5 (Duration) TIGHTENING SINCE THE C258 US-BAN-CLAUSE-REJECTION SURFACING — it institutionalizes at the IRGC-tier what was previously only rhetorical-tier resistance. Simultaneously, the C260 Iraqi-militia postponement-formalization removes the C259 near-term Iraq-front kinetic-catalyst but does not offset the structural Lock-5 tightening. The base-case C259 (35-50% Sat-Mon-Tue Aug-8-11 modified-partial announcement, 30-40% slippage, 15-25% deal-collapse tail) is RE-REVISED-DOWNWARD-C260: revised C260 base-case 25-40% Mon-Tue-Wed Aug-10-12 Iran-Oman-fee-deal-only announcement (Strait-operational-reopening remains conditional on IRGC-track separately), 35-45% Tue-Wed-Thu Aug-12-14 slippage, 20-30% deal-collapse tail if IRGC-bifurcation combined with UAE-strike-frequency triggers US-side-hardening or Iran-side-escalation-to-second-Gulf-state-strike.

What the structural locks pattern implies: The C260 IRGC-Mohebbi bifurcation fundamentally-shifts the deal-frame from bilateral-single-instrument to bilateral-dual-instrument (Oman-fee-deal + separate-IRGC-Strait-reopening). This means even if Iran-Oman formal-statement publishes Sun/Mon (25-40%), the Strait-reopening remains a separate IRGC-controlled question — the US-side gets fee/revenue clarity but not operational-reopening. This is a MAJOR downshift on ceasefire-optimism because the Bessent/Rubio "today or tomorrow" framing conflates the two, and the market has been pricing the conflated version. The UAE-ADNOC-strike-C260 validates the Iran-retaliation-plan-5-Gulf-state operational-execution and hardens Lock-3 (P&I re-entry blocker) + Lock-9 (chokepoint-execution). The Iraqi-militia-deferral formalization is a near-term positive on Lock-7 but does not extinguish structural-Iraq-front-risk (Sep-30 disarmament deadline separate). Iranian-side leadership CARRIES SNSC-12-of-13 vote + Pezeshkian-Sat-Aug-8-softening. Israeli-side leadership CARRIES Katz-Zamir-Bluth rupture. US-side leadership shows emerging fracture per Fox News former-cabinet "very bad outcome." Net: 1 loosening + 1 mixed + 8-9 tightening/holding; the negotiating-frame has shifted from bilateral-single-instrument to bilateral-dual-instrument requiring separate resolution of Oman-fee-deal AND IRGC-Strait-reopening-conditions.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: Base-case Mon-Tue-Wed Aug-10-12 Iran-Oman-fee-deal-only announcement (25-40%) with Strait-operational-reopening conditional-on-separate-IRGC-track; delayed insurance-restoration Q4 further-hardened by UAE-C260; energy-price volatility persists $75-$95 band Q3-Q4 with Mon-open bullish-risk to $85-$88 range; Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb + Saudi-Hodeidah retaliation-cycle independent of Hormuz-track (further escalation risk elevated by Saudi bracing); UAE-tanker-strike-frequency-tempo watch (3 this week already, ADNOC-Aug-8 executes retaliation-plan-5-Gulf-state); Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-year-offline + 21-cargoes-thru-early-Sept + $20B lost-revenue + end-August-force-majeure structural; SPR-drawdown continues (US 42.7% capacity approaching operational-minimums); Iraq-front kinetic-risk moderated near-term by Al Ameri-deferral-formalization but structural (militia-response question deferred not extinguished). Downside-tail 25-35%: Iran-Oman formal-statement collapses given US-ban-clause + IRGC-bifurcation cannot be reconciled + Israeli-side pre-emptive strike leveraging Sunni-bloc-cover + UAE-strike-pretext + Trump-decapitation-frame-execution despite munitions-constraint + full-collapse to renewed active-war + Saudi-Yemen open kinetic + Iraqi-militia break-ranks post-Al-Ameri-deferral-formalization.

Key uncertainties: (a) Whether US-side accepts the IRGC-institutional-tier bifurcation-of-Strait-from-Oman-deal or maintains conflated framing; (b) Whether Iran modifies US-ban clause in Oman-deal to enable fee-deal-only announcement; (c) Mojtaba's actual position on SNSC-approved-MoU (13th cycle pending); (d) Whether UAE-Res-2817-invocation triggers fresh Bahrain-UNSC vote leveraging C260 momentum; (e) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis breaks open, contains, or triggers "round 2" leveraging Sunni-bloc-cover + UAE-strike-pretext; (f) Saudi-Houthi kinetic-escalation timeline; (g) Iraqi-militia adherence to formalized-deferral vs break-ranks; (h) Brent Mon-Aug-10-open direction; (i) Whether US formally endorses or distances-from Mecca pact + Fox News-cabinet-pushback amplification; (j) Whether Pakistan clarifies nuclear-capability commitment vis-à-vis Iran given UAE-strike; (k) Whether Oman-mediator-role formally adjusts scope given IRGC-diminishment; (l) Whether Qatar-tier response escalates beyond joint-condemnation given end-August-force-majeure timeline.

Sources (C260 web sweep)

• UAE says Iran targeted ADNOC tanker in Hormuz, no casualties (Bloomberg/AFP via NAMPA)
• Adnoc vessel targeted by missile in Strait of Hormuz; UAE condemns Iran attack (Khaleej Times)
• UAE condemns missile attack on an ADNOC-linked tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz (Gulf News)
• Iran war latest: UAE and Qatar condemn Iranian attack on Adnoc oil tanker (The National Aug-8)
• UAE says Iran attacked ADNOC vessel with missile in Strait of Hormuz (WHBL/KFGO)
• UAE says Iran attacked ADNOC vessel with missile in Hormuz (New Arab)
• UAE says Iran targeted ADNOC tanker in Hormuz, no casualties (BSS News)
• Iran war live: IRGC says Hormuz to open after US 'fully' accepts conditions (Al Jazeera Aug-8 liveblog)
• Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets conditions: IRGC (APA)
• Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets conditions: IRGC (CryptoBriefing)
• IRGC says Hormuz reopening depends on US accepting Iran's terms (Middle East Eye)
• Iran live updates: Iran says framework of Oman agreement finalized (ABC News)
• Iran deliberates Hormuz arrangement amid uncertain prospects with US (Al Jazeera Aug-8)
• War on Iran: Phase II: Day 28 (Al Jazeera video Aug-8)
• Iran Update Special Report, August 4, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• Iran Update Evening Special Report: August 07, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• ISW on X: Islamic Resistance in Iraq postpones response due to Badr mediation
• Iraqi militia umbrella group says 'postpones' retaliation against US forces (Prokerala)
• Iraqi paramilitary groups postpone attack on neighboring country (TASS)
• Iraqi forces on high alert as militia deadline for response to US-Saudi strikes expires (The National)
• Mecca pact ties three Sunni powers together as Iran-backed attacks loom (Iran International)
• Saudi Arabia turns to Muslim military heavyweights in landmark defense pact as Iran war closes in (CNN)
• Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign 'Mecca Defence Pact' (New Arab)
• Mecca defence agreement signed amid war, Hormuz tensions (New Arab)
• Saudi Arabia signs pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan in signal to Israel (AOL/Reuters)
• Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (Wikipedia)
• Pezeshkian says Iran open to dialogue, warns against regional divisions (Middle East Eye)
• Iran President Pezeshkian: Dialogue Over Surrender (New Kerala)
• Scott Bessent predicts ceasefire agreement with Iran could come soon (CryptoBriefing)
• 'Last chance': Bessent says Hormuz deal is in sight after Trump's warning on Iran talks (CNBC)
• Former Trump cabinet official says Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal could be 'very bad outcome' (Fox News Digital Aug-8)
• CENTCOM Says 48 Vessels Diverted Under Iran Naval Blockade (Iran International)
• Alert: CENTCOM Says 49 Ships Redirected as US Naval Blockade (HamerIntel Aug-6)
• Iran-Oman Deal Proposes Ban on US, Israeli Ships in Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg)
• Trump Says Hormuz Talks 'Moving Along' Even as Iran Mulls US Ban (Bloomberg)
• Iran aims to ban U.S. and Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz and charge others a toll (NPR)
• Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage; warns of third party obstruction (GlobalSecurity/IRNA)
• Iran and Oman agree route for ships in Strait of Hormuz, Tehran says (Euronews)
• Iran, Oman Reach Agreement on Proposed Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route (Bloomberg)
• Iran deliberates Hormuz arrangement amid uncertain prospects with US (Al Jazeera Aug-8)
• Houthi strikes hit Yemen as Saudi Arabia braces for attacks (Al Jazeera Aug-7)
• Report: Netanyahu furious with Katz over Bluth replacement (Times of Israel)
• Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran will never have nuclear weapons 'with or without a deal' (Jerusalem Post)
• Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal (Washington Post Aug-1)
• Iraq Oil Exports Through Turkey: Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline Revival 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• Turkiye and Iraq sign one-year oil pipeline deal amid global shift (Al Jazeera Aug-1)
• Qatar extends force majeure on LNG supplies until end of August 2026 (Daily Destination)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to Mid-August 2026 (energynews.pro)
• Force majeure on QatarEnergy LNG extends to fourth month (AGBI)
• Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Crude Oil WTI - Price - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Current price of oil as of August 7, 2026 (Fortune)
• Iran War Casualties 2026 (militaryspend.org)
• Iran War 2026 Daily Update Calendar (GlobalSecurity)
• Hormuz Shipping War Risk Insurance: Crisis, Costs & Recovery 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• Launch of new marine war risk consortium to support Strait of Hormuz shipping (Lloyd's)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve Levels (OilPriceAPI)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule (EIA)
• Resolution 2817 (2026) (UNSCR)
• 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz campaign (Wikipedia)
• 2026 Iran war ceasefire (Wikipedia)