Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-07 · Cycle 3 (C258)

War Day: 161 | Blockade Day: 25 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-7 late-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🟢🟢🟡🔴 IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSAL EXPOSES US-BAN FAULT LINE — TRUMP ADMIN REJECTS US/ISRAELI-SHIP-BAN + COMPENSATION-FROM-HOSTILE-COUNTRIES CLAUSE — MAJOR C258 STRUCTURAL SURFACING per Bloomberg Aug-6 + Aug-7 + NPR + Political Wire + Whatfinger — Bloomberg Aug-6 ("Iran-Oman Deal Proposes Ban on US, Israeli Ships in Strait of Hormuz") + Aug-7 ("Trump Says Hormuz Talks 'Moving Along' Even as Iran Mulls US Ban") + NPR Aug-6 ("Iran aims to ban U.S. and Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz and charge others a toll"): Iran will seek to bar US + Israeli ships + require compensation from "hostile countries" before Strait passage; Trump administration HAS REJECTED THE PLAN per Bloomberg; this is the FIRST explicit US-rejection of a specific deal-content-clause since the Iran-Oman "final stages" frame began | 🟢🟡 TRUMP BROKE AFTERNOON-SILENCE-C258 per Bloomberg Aug-7 — "Talks moving along" statement to White House reporters late Thursday reported Aug-7; modulation-tone-consistent-with C256/C257 "pretty soon" cadence; no fresh substantive framework update; ends C257 "quiet-Aug-7-afternoon" characterization | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 48 VESSELS CARRIES from C256/C257 — no fresh CENTCOM print in ~4h delta from C257 | 🔴🔴🔴 SAUDI-HOUTHI KINETIC-ESCALATION-C258 per Al Jazeera Aug-7 "Houthi strikes hit Yemen as Saudi Arabia braces for attacks" — Saudi struck Hodeidah Friday; Houthis launched 12 missiles at Hadramout + Marib provinces; retaliatory-tempo accelerating | 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-BACKED-MILITIAS AUG-7 IRAQ DEADLINE TODAY per CNN live-blog — coalition of Iran-backed militias gave Iraq until Aug-7 to respond re Baghdad incident; deadline expires today; direct-action-threat if unanswered | 🟢 BRENT $82.15 AUG-7-CLOSE per tradingeconomics (−0.41%) — vs C257 Aug-6-close $83.34; downward-drift consistent with 60% deal-probability pricing; WTI $78.07 AUG-7-CLOSE per tradingeconomics (+1.01%) — vs C257 corrected Aug-6-close $77.75; spread narrowed further to $4.08 (from C257 $5.59) = tightest since pre-war | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE EXTENDED TO END-AUGUST per Daily Destination REFINEMENT-C258 — vs C257 "mid-August" read; ~2-week extension quantified; 17%-up-to-5-years + 21-cargoes + $20B lost-revenue CARRIES | 🟡 IRAQ-TURKEY 170-200K BPD THROUGHPUT + 750K BPD CEILING CARRIES per Discovery Alert refresh — Basra-Haditha-Kirkuk-Ceyhan long-term pipeline > 1 mb/d target CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTE CARRIES; no fresh Mojtaba public response ~4h window; 11th-cycle-pending on Mojtaba formal sign-off | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN 4-COMMITMENT + BAGHAEI-THIRD-PARTY-WARNING CARRIES; NO fresh Baghaei Aug-7-late statement | 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH-CRISIS CONSOLIDATES per Times of Israel Aug-7 — Netanyahu FURIOUS with Katz over live-TV Bluth-dismissal ("obscene behavior"); IDF Chief-of-Staff Zamir tells Bluth "You're not going anywhere" — open cabinet-military rupture; Netanyahu: "Iran will never have nuclear weapons with or without a deal" (Jerusalem Post) | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT MFA / BAHRAIN UNSC HISTORICAL-CARRIES; NO fresh C258 formal-vote | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES | 🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 31st CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-7 statement | 🔴 UKMTO KUMZAR-SE AUG-6 EXPLOSIONS DATA-CLARIFIED-C257 CARRIES; UKMTO-Al-Rekayyat Qatari LNG tanker incident CONTEXT-C258 confirmed as JULY-7 event NOT Aug-6 — per Al Jazeera Jul-7 + Arab News + The National + JPost — Aug-6 Kumzar incident is DISTINCT from Jul-7 Al-Rekayyat strike (vessel/crew safe vs Al Rekayyat engine-room-fire + salvage-risk) | 🔴 SPR ~304M mb / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+5 days) | Cycle: C258 (Fri-Aug-7 late-CEST ~22:00 / Fri-late-ET ~16:00, ~4h delta from C257)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timeout on Grok_outputs folder lookup (MCP-32001 timeout); THIRTY-FIRST consecutive cycle: C228→C258. Full 13-topic web sweep executed on: Iran-Oman-joint-statement-Aug-7-late + Trump-Iran-Hormuz-Aug-7-evening + Brent-WTI-Aug-7-close + Iran-US-Israeli-ship-ban-Bloomberg-Aug-6-7 + NPR-Iran-hostile-country-compensation + Trump-admin-rejection + Houthi-Saudi-Hodeidah-Aug-7 + Iran-backed-militia-Iraq-Aug-7-deadline + UKMTO-Al-Rekayyat-provenance-July-7 + UKMTO-Kumzar-Aug-6-distinct + Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-SNSC-11th-cycle + CENTCOM-48-vessels-carries + Iraq-Basra-Kirkuk-Ceyhan-pipeline-refresh + Qatar-Ras-Laffan-end-August-force-majeure + Bahrain-UNSC + IAEA-Grossi + Bushehr-Natanz-nuclear + Netanyahu-Katz-Bluth-consolidation + Baghaei-Iran-MFA + Bessent-Rubio-Cabinet + oil-price-Aug-7-close + Iran-war-Aug-7-evening + Saudi-Houthi-retaliation-Aug-7 + Pentagon-Hegseth-leaker-context.

Baseline: C257 / 2026-08-07 Fri-late-CEST ~18:00 (QUIET-AUG-7-AFTERNOON-STALL + FOURTH-DAY-SLIPPAGE + UKMTO-KUMZAR-DATA-CLARIFICATION + WTI-$77.75-DATA-CORRECTION + PENTAGON-LEAK-HISTORICAL-CONTEXT + IRAQ-TURKEY-THROUGHPUT-170-200K + QATARENERGY-21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-07 C258 Fri-late-CEST ~22:00 / Fri-late-ET ~16:00, ~4h delta from C257): C258 is a US-BAN-FAULT-LINE-SURFACING + TRUMP-ADMIN-EXPLICIT-REJECTION + TRUMP-AFTERNOON-SILENCE-BROKEN + AUG-7-CLOSE-PRICE-DATA + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEADLINE-TODAY + NETANYAHU-KATZ-BLUTH-CONSOLIDATION + AL-REKAYYAT-JULY-7-PROVENANCE-CLARIFICATION cycle at T+~4h from C257. The C258 surfacing of Iran's US/Israeli-ship-ban + compensation-from-hostile-countries clause + Trump administration's explicit rejection is the MOST MATERIAL DEAL-CONTENT SIGNAL SINCE THE JUL-14 BLOCKADE RESUMPTION — it exposes the specific fault-line that has been the invisible driver of four days of formal-announcement-slippage. Seven substantive observations vs C257: (a) BLOOMBERG AUG-6 + AUG-7 + NPR + POLITICAL WIRE — IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + COMPENSATION FROM HOSTILE COUNTRIES — Iran will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from hostile countries before they're allowed to sail through it, per Bloomberg Aug-6 + Aug-7 + NPR Aug-6 + Political Wire Aug-7 + Whatfinger Aug-7. The Trump administration HAS REJECTED THE PLAN per Bloomberg. This is the FIRST explicit specific-clause-rejection since the Iran-Oman "final stages" frame began. It exposes the operative fault-line driving four-day formal-announcement-slippage: the deal-content includes conditions that the US-side rejects on principle (Bessent's "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" was directional-carrier; this is now the concrete-collision). (b) TRUMP BROKE AFTERNOON-SILENCE-C258 per Bloomberg Aug-7 "Trump Says Hormuz Talks 'Moving Along' Even as Iran Mulls US Ban" — Trump said talks are "moving along" and gave no additional comment when asked about progress by White House reporters late Thursday (Aug-6/Aug-7 window). Modulation-tone-consistent with C256 "pretty soon" + C257 "war can't go much longer" cadence; no fresh substantive framework-update. Ends C257 "quiet-Aug-7-afternoon" characterization but does NOT resolve fourth-day formal-announcement-slippage. Combined-signal with (a): Trump-tone-softening + US-side-rejection of US-ban-clause = performative-optimism-outer + substantive-collision-inner. (c) BRENT $82.15 AUG-7-CLOSE per tradingeconomics (−0.41%) + WTI $78.07 AUG-7-CLOSE (+1.01%) — Brent down $1.19 from Aug-6-close $83.34; WTI up $0.32 from Aug-6-close corrected $77.75. WTI-Brent spread narrows further to $4.08 from C257 $5.59 = tightest since pre-war (~$3-5). Brent-down + WTI-up pattern reflects: (i) European risk-off pricing 60% deal-probability; (ii) US tighter-crude-balance from Cushing draw + SPR active-draw. Neither move signals directional-conviction; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS. (d) SAUDI-HODEIDAH STRIKE + HOUTHI 12-MISSILE-RETALIATION-C258 per Al Jazeera Aug-7 "Houthi strikes hit Yemen as Saudi Arabia braces for attacks" — Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeidah on Friday; Houthis retaliated with at least 12 missile-attacks on Yemeni-provinces of Hadramout + Marib; officials state attacks will continue against "Saudi allies or proxies." Saudi-retaliation-execution for Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 kinetic MATERIALIZED-C258 (was C257 "watch-item"). Independent of Hormuz-deal-track; Lock-7 + Lock-9 tighten. (e) IRAN-BACKED-MILITIA IRAQ AUG-7 DEADLINE TODAY per CNN live-blog — Coalition of Iran-backed militias gave Iraqi authorities until Aug-7 to respond re specific-incident; direct-action-threat if government fails to respond. Deadline expires today. Iraq-front kinetic-risk elevated ahead of Sat-Sun window; adds independent geographic-tightening. (f) NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH-CRISIS CONSOLIDATES per Times of Israel Aug-7 — Netanyahu FURIOUS with Katz over live-TV Bluth-dismissal announcement ("obscene behavior"); IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir told Bluth "You're not going anywhere" — reaffirmed support. This is open cabinet-military rupture — Zamir siding with Bluth against Katz-Netanyahu. Combined with Netanyahu's Jerusalem Post statement "Iran will never have nuclear weapons with or without a deal" = hardened-Israeli-position on nuclear-tier despite Hormuz-deal-track. Lock-6 TIGHTENS further; Lock-10 (Israeli-side leadership fragmentation) INTENSIFIES. (g) UKMTO AL-REKAYYAT PROVENANCE CLARIFICATION-C258 per Al Jazeera Jul-7 + Arab News + The National + JPost + Ynetnews + USNews + House of Saud — The Al Rekayyat Qatari LNG tanker strike is a JULY-7 event, NOT Aug-6. Al Rekayyat was struck by projectile off Limah, Oman, 8nm SE — engine room fire + salvage risk + captain radio "hit by drone port side" + Qatar formal condemnation of Iran. The Aug-6 Kumzar-SE explosions incident (data-clarified in C257) is DISTINCT — no vessel-name, no confirmed hit, vessel/crew safe, no environmental damage. C258 provenance-clarification prevents cross-contamination of two separate tanker events. (h) QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE EXTENDED TO END-AUGUST per Daily Destination REFINEMENT-C258 — vs C257 "mid-August" read; ~2-week extension quantified. 17%-up-to-5-years + 21-cargoes-thru-early-Sept + $20B lost-revenue + 12.8 million tonnes/year offline (of Qatar's 77 mt/year total) CARRIES. Lock-11 longer-tail tightens marginally. NO FRESH C258 SIGNALS IN: Baghaei-MFA (Aug-7-late); Rubio-Bessent (Aug-7-late); IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi (Aug-7-late); Rezaei-state-TV (Aug-7-late); IAEA-Grossi (Aug-7-late); Bahrain-UNSC-fresh-vote (Aug-7); Mojtaba-formal-response (Aug-7-late, 11th cycle pending); EIA-weekly (T+5 days). All C257 CARRIES apply where not superseded: UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 near-miss CARRIES; Iran-Oman coordinates-agreed CARRIES; joint-statement "final drafting" CARRIES; route-mechanics two-lane + fee-split CARRIES; Iran 4-commitment US-conditions CARRIES; Netanyahu-CBS uranium-removal endorsement CARRIES; Katz-Bluth personal-friction CARRIES + CONSOLIDATED-C258; Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 kinetic-execution CARRIES + Saudi-retaliation-materialized-C258; EIA Aug-5 SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey 1-year pipeline deal Aug-1 CARRIES; Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES; Baghaei "warns of third party obstruction" CARRIES; CENTCOM 48-redirected + 2-disabled + 2-boarded CARRIES from C256/C257; Qatari drafts "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1-10% CARRIES; IRGC-media denial CARRIES; Rezaei state-TV counter CARRIES; Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant CARRIES; Trump-last-chance-decapitation CARRIES; IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat CARRIES; IRGC MQ-9-Reaper-shootdown Aug-3 CARRIES (no Pentagon-response 7+ cycles); CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug per Reuters CARRIES; OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd CARRIES; Iraq Basra Aug 2.93 mb/d planned CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; Kuwait MFA + Bahrain UNSC HISTORICAL CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target-list CARRIES; QatarEnergy 33 US-LNG-hedge CARRIES; Trump-Hegseth-Camp-David-clash April-precedent-bounded CARRIES; US munitions "dangerously low" CARRIES. C257 → C258 KEY DELTAS: (1) BLOOMBERG + NPR — IRAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + COMPENSATION FROM HOSTILE COUNTRIES — TRUMP ADMIN REJECTS — MAJOR structural surfacing. (2) TRUMP BROKE AFTERNOON-SILENCE — "Talks moving along" statement to reporters; performative-optimism vs substantive-collision. (3) BRENT $82.15 + WTI $78.07 AUG-7-CLOSE — spread narrowed to $4.08 (tightest since pre-war). (4) SAUDI STRUCK HODEIDAH + HOUTHI 12-MISSILE RETALIATION — Saudi-retaliation for Wafa/Daisy materialized. (5) IRAN-BACKED-MILITIA AUG-7 IRAQ DEADLINE TODAY — Independent Iraq-front kinetic-risk elevated. (6) NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH CRISIS CONSOLIDATES — Zamir sides with Bluth; open cabinet-military rupture. (7) AL-REKAYYAT JULY-7 PROVENANCE CLARIFICATION — Distinct from Aug-6 Kumzar incident. (8) QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE EXTENDED TO END-AUGUST — ~2-week extension vs C257 mid-August read. Structural locks (C257 → C258): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES + AUG-7-CLOSE-DATA + SPREAD-NARROWED — Brent $82.15 close, WTI $78.07 close, spread $4.08; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS; Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES + QATAR-END-AUGUST-EXTENSION — Iraq-Turkey 170-200K bpd CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure extension marginally-tightens; Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDING-CARRIES; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES; Lock-5 (Duration) US-BAN-FAULT-LINE-SURFACING-BLOCKS-C258 — Trump admin explicit-rejection of US/Israeli-ship-ban clause introduces first-explicit-content-obstacle since final-stages frame; TIGHTENING at content-level despite performative-optimism-outer; Lock-6 (Nuclear) CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + NETANYAHU-JPOST-"WITH-OR-WITHOUT-DEAL"-HARDENS-C258; Lock-7 (Geographic) SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION-C258 + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEADLINE-TODAY — Multi-front kinetic-escalation; Lock-8 (Capability) BOUNDED-CARRIES; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) SAUDI-HOUTHI-MULTI-FRONT-ESCALATION-C258; Lock-10 (Leadership) SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-CARRIES + ZAMIR-BLUTH-CABINET-RUPTURE-INTENSIFIES-C258; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-END-AUGUST-EXTENSION-C258. Critical 0-8h Fri-Aug-7-late-ET + 0-16h Sat-Aug-8-open + 0-24h Sat-Aug-8 + 0-48h Sun-Aug-9: (a) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes Sat/Sun despite US-side rejection of US/Israeli-ban clause; (b) Whether US formal announcement materializes given content-collision or shifts to alternative-framework; (c) Whether Iran modifies deal-content to accommodate US-side; (d) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU (11th cycle pending); (e) Whether Trump modulates leaker-hunt or issues Sat-morning Truth Social push; (f) Whether Iran-formal-tier publicly-responds to US-rejection; (g) Whether Brent Sat-open holds $80-85 range or breaks sub-$80 or above $88; (h) Whether next EIA weekly (T+5 days) shows continued SPR-draw; (i) Whether Saudi-Houthi kinetic escalates further Sat/Sun; (j) Whether Iraq-front kinetic materializes post-Aug-7-deadline; (k) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis triggers cabinet-reshuffle or IDF-command-crisis; (l) Whether IAEA Grossi statement materializes; (m) Whether Bahrain UNSC produces fresh Iran-condemnation vote; (n) Whether Pentagon aide-suspensions materialize (April-precedent); (o) Whether Israeli "round 2" strike-plan advances despite deal-track; (p) Whether Rezaei-hardliner escalates or defers; (q) Whether Baghaei publicly names US as "third party obstructor" given rejection-surfacing; (r) Whether fresh Hormuz-proper tanker-kinetic materializes.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C257 → C258 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-OMAN DEAL PROPOSES US + ISRAELI SHIP BAN + COMPENSATION FROM HOSTILE COUNTRIES — TRUMP ADMIN EXPLICIT REJECTION-C258 per Bloomberg + NPR + Political Wire — FIRST specific-clause-rejection since "final stages" frame; exposes operative fault-line driving four-day slippage.

• 🟢🟡 TRUMP BROKE AFTERNOON-SILENCE-C258 — "Talks moving along" to White House reporters per Bloomberg; performative-optimism-outer vs substantive-collision-inner.

• 🟢 BRENT $82.15 AUG-7-CLOSE (−0.41%) + WTI $78.07 AUG-7-CLOSE (+1.01%) — spread narrowed to $4.08 tightest since pre-war.

• 🔴🔴🔴 SAUDI STRUCK HODEIDAH + HOUTHI 12-MISSILE RETALIATION-C258 per Al Jazeera Aug-7 — Saudi-retaliation for Wafa/Daisy materialized; independent of Hormuz-deal-track.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-BACKED-MILITIA AUG-7 IRAQ DEADLINE TODAY per CNN live-blog — independent Iraq-front kinetic-risk elevated.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH CRISIS CONSOLIDATES-C258 per Times of Israel — Zamir sides with Bluth ("You're not going anywhere"); Netanyahu "obscene behavior"; open cabinet-military rupture; Netanyahu JPost "Iran will never have nuclear weapons with or without a deal" hardens.

• 🔴 AL-REKAYYAT JULY-7 PROVENANCE CLARIFICATION-C258 — Distinct from Aug-6 Kumzar; Al Rekayyat = Qatari LNG tanker + engine-fire + salvage-risk + Qatar-formal-condemnation-of-Iran.

• 🔴🔴🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE EXTENDED TO END-AUGUST REFINEMENT-C258 per Daily Destination — vs C257 mid-August; ~2-week extension quantified.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 48 VESSELS CARRIES — no fresh print ~4h window.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTED-MoU CARRIES — 11th cycle Mojtaba formal sign-off pending.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN 4-COMMITMENT US-CONDITIONS CARRIES — Gharibabadi list CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT WITHOUT IRANIAN TOLLS" CARRIES + NOW-CONCRETE-COLLISION-WITH-DEAL-CONTENT-C258.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BAGHAEI "WARNS OF THIRD PARTY OBSTRUCTION" CARRIES — Iran implicitly targets US; now-materialized-in-Trump-rejection-C258.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY KINETIC EXECUTION AUG-5 CARRIES + SAUDI-RETALIATION-MATERIALIZED-C258.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL CARRIES + JPOST-HARDENED-C258.

• 🔴🔴🔴 REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES; no fresh C258 IRGC-Aerospace print.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" CARRIES + APRIL-PRECEDENT-BOUNDED.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES — bounded by munitions-constraint.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — No Pentagon-response 7+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG CARRIES per Reuters.

• 🟢🟡 IRAQ BASRA AUG 2.93 MB/D PLANNED CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES; no fresh Kuwait target C258.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN RETALIATION-PLAN 5-GULF-STATE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 HISTORICAL-CARRIES; NO fresh C258 formal-vote.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 31st CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-7 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED but CENTCOM SOUTHERN-ROUTE FREE-AND-OPEN + IRAQ-KPLER 1 MB/D FLOW CARRIES.

• 🔴 NO FRESH TANKER ATTACK IN HORMUZ-PROPER C258 ~4H WINDOW; UKMTO Kumzar Aug-6 CARRIES; Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 provenance-clarified.

• 🔴 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE PENDING C258 — 11th cycle pending.

• 🔴 SPR ~304M MB / 42.7% CAPACITY CARRIES; next EIA weekly Aug-12 (T+5 days).

1. Conflict Status

War Day 161 / Ceasefire STATUS: IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-STATEMENT-IN-FINAL-STAGES + BLOOMBERG-NPR-US-BAN-FAULT-LINE-SURFACING-C258 + TRUMP-ADMIN-EXPLICIT-REJECTION-C258 + TRUMP-BROKE-AFTERNOON-SILENCE-C258 + BRENT-$82.15-WTI-$78.07-AUG-7-CLOSE-C258 + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE-HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION-C258 + IRAQ-MILITIA-AUG-7-DEADLINE-TODAY-C258 + NETANYAHU-KATZ-ZAMIR-BLUTH-CRISIS-CONSOLIDATES-C258 + AL-REKAYYAT-JULY-7-PROVENANCE-CLARIFIED-C258 + QATARENERGY-FORCE-MAJEURE-END-AUGUST-EXTENSION-C258. C258 confirms: (a) US-BAN-FAULT-LINE SURFACED — Bloomberg + NPR reveal Iran-Oman deal includes US/Israeli ship ban + hostile-country compensation clause; Trump admin explicitly rejected; THIS IS THE OPERATIVE OBSTACLE driving four-day formal-announcement-slippage; (b) Trump broke afternoon silence with "moving along" performative-optimism; (c) Brent Aug-7-close $82.15 (−0.41%) + WTI Aug-7-close $78.07 (+1.01%) — spread narrowed to $4.08 tightest since pre-war; (d) Saudi Arabia struck Hodeidah Friday + Houthis retaliated with 12 missiles at Hadramout+Marib — independent kinetic-escalation; (e) Iran-backed militias Iraq Aug-7 deadline TODAY — independent Iraq-front escalation-risk; (f) Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis consolidates into open cabinet-military rupture; Netanyahu JPost "with or without a deal" hardens; (g) Al-Rekayyat Qatari LNG tanker strike is Jul-7 event NOT Aug-6 — provenance clarified; (h) QatarEnergy force-majeure extended to end-August — ~2-week extension vs C257 mid-August read; (i) All C257 substantive frameworks CARRIES. War cost $37.5B+ CARRIES. C257 → C258 (~4h delta Fri-late-CEST → Fri-later-late-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C258 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — US-BAN-FAULT-LINE SURFACED + TRUMP-REJECTED-C258 + Trump-afternoon-silence-broken; SNSC 12-of-13 CARRIES; Mojtaba sign-off 11th cycle pending
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened-C258 + Katz-Zamir-Bluth-open-rupture-C258
• 🟢🟢🔴 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement "final stages" CARRIES; but content-blocking on US-ban clause per Bloomberg
• 🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure end-August-C258
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Netanyahu-JPost-hardened-C258 + Katz-Bluth-Zamir-rupture-C258
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-JPost-hardened + IAEA-no-staff CARRIES 31st cycle
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint + Saudi-retaliation — Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES + Saudi-Hodeidah-strike-C258 + Houthi-12-missile-retaliation-C258
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iraq-front — Iran-backed-militia Aug-7 deadline TODAY per CNN live-blog

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Bloomberg + NPR — Iran-Oman deal proposes US/Israeli ship ban + hostile-country compensation; Trump admin explicitly rejects
• 🟢🟡 NEW Trump broke afternoon silence "talks moving along" per Bloomberg
• 🟢 NEW Brent $82.15 Aug-7-close (−0.41%); WTI $78.07 Aug-7-close (+1.01%); spread narrows to $4.08
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Saudi Arabia struck Hodeidah Friday; Houthis retaliated with 12 missiles Hadramout+Marib
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iran-backed militia Iraq Aug-7 deadline today per CNN
• 🔴🔴🔴 CONSOLIDATION Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-crisis + Zamir "You're not going anywhere" + JPost "with or without deal"
• 🔴 PROVENANCE Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 event (distinct from Aug-6 Kumzar)
• 🔴🔴🔴 REFINEMENT QatarEnergy force-majeure extended to end-August (~2-week extension)
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Iran-Oman coordinates agreed + joint-statement "final stages"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran 4-commitment US-conditions (Gharibabadi list)
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Pezeshkian SNSC 12/13 voted MoU-with-US
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES CENTCOM 48 vessels redirected
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial + Rezaei hardliner two-phase-Trump-counter
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu CBS 60 Minutes uranium-removal endorsement
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + APRIL-BOUNDED US munitions "dangerously low" + Trump-leaker-hunt
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant + Trump-decapitation-frame
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 Reaper shootdown Aug-3 (no Pentagon-response 7+ cycles)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat command-tier
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug expected per Reuters
• 🟢 CARRIES OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd ratified
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 + MFA-UNSC-2817-invocation
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure guidance
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff in Iran + satellite-only (31st cycle)
• 🟢 CARRIES Al Areesh delivery + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS
• 🔴 UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 CARRIES (data-clarified in C257)
• 🔴 No fresh Houthi Aug-7 kinetic vs Saudi-Yanbu (Saudi struck first)
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC formal vote C258
• 🔴 Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response PENDING C258 (11th cycle) — SNSC-12-of-13 CARRIES

• All casualty figures CARRY unchanged from C257 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~4h window)
• Total war deaths: 8,976–18,310+ per militaryspend.org CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wikipedia / 3,636 HRANA / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,219+ killed since March 2; 1.2M+ displaced (CARRIES)
• US KIA/wounded: 18 killed / 687 wounded (of which 4 killed / 270 wounded since Jul-7) per DCAS per CNN Aug-4 CARRIES
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss $ tally per Bloomberg: ~$1B / 24+ airframes ~20% pre-war inventory CARRIES

Net ceasefire trajectory C258: THE C257 QUIET-AFTERNOON-STALL HAS BEEN EXPLAINED-C258 — the substantive obstacle is Iran's US/Israeli-ship-ban + hostile-country-compensation clause, which Trump admin has explicitly rejected. The C257 base-case (55-65% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 partial announcement) is REVISED-DOWNWARD given the concrete-content-collision: revised C258 base-case 40-55% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 modified-partial announcement (with US-ban clause dropped or reframed), 25-35% Sun-Mon-Tue slippage, 15-25% deal-collapse tail if Iran refuses to modify. Multi-front kinetic-escalation (Saudi-Hodeidah + Houthi-retaliation + Iraq-militia-Aug-7-deadline + Netanyahu-JPost-hardening + Katz-Zamir-Bluth-rupture) INCREASES the deal-collapse tail-probability. The Brent Aug-7-close $82.15 DOWN vs Aug-6-close $83.34 = market pricing-in modified-deal-probability despite content-collision, likely on expectation that US-ban-clause is negotiable.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: 92+ vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES from prior cycles); 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi blockade; C258 window (~4h) fresh: NONE in Hormuz-proper or Red Sea; Al-Rekayyat Jul-7 provenance-CLARIFIED-C258 as distinct from Aug-6 Kumzar.

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C258; CARRIES from prior cycles.

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts (CARRIES from C257):

• Goldman: $85-95 Q3 range CARRIES
• JPM: "$95 midpoint if deal materializes; $110-125 if collapse" CARRIES
• EIA STEO Aug: $88.9 forecast CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE
• Bloomberg/oilprice.com: "market pricing 60% probability of interim deal" CARRIES; Aug-7-close consistent with narrower-spread modified-deal-probability

• Trump "moving along" per Bloomberg Aug-7 — modest performative-optimism; Brent-price down-drift consistent
• Bloomberg + NPR US-ban-clause + Trump-rejection surfaced-C258 — price-response muted because rejection was likely already-priced-in during quiet-C257-afternoon-stall
• Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES — fees-fault-line now-concrete
• Fourth-day slippage + content-collision = mixed-signal for price

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status

Country reserves matrix

Announcement-vs-physical-delivery gap CARRIES: IEA-400M-announced Mar-11; ~17.5M actually delivered by end-April; running-total ~7-fold-lag persists CARRIES.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

• Pre-war Hormuz volume: ~20 mb/d crude + LNG
• Current bypass total (adjusted): ~7-8 mb/d realistic (E-W 4.5 + ADCOP 1.4 + Iraq-Turkey 0.17-0.20 + Oman 0.4 + Cape rerouting ~1-2)
• GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable CARRIES — structural shortfall no amount of rerouting can close
• Iraq-Turkey pipeline long-term target > 1 mb/d after Basra-Haditha-Kirkuk-Ceyhan CARRIES per Discovery Alert

7. Maritime Insurance

Cost per VLCC voyage: Pre-war $250-300K → Current $800K-$21M per voyage CARRIES per marinenewsnetwork.

8. Shadow Fleet

C258 fresh signals: NONE in ~4h window.

Cumulative CARRIES:

• Shadow fleet size: 1,400+ vessels (~25% of global tanker fleet) CARRIES
• No new C258 seizures, sanctions designations, or enforcement actions
• GRU/Wagner militarization CARRIES
• Arctic Metagaz-type incident risk CARRIES
• Iran shadow-fleet friendly-fire CARRIES (no fresh)

9. Country Response Matrix

Belligerents (C258 deltas only):

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C258 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Bloomberg + NPR + Political Wire — Iran-Oman deal proposes US + Israeli ship ban + hostile-country compensation — first specific-deal-content-disclosure revealing the operative fault-line driving four-day formal-announcement-slippage.
2. Trump administration EXPLICITLY REJECTED the US/Israeli-ship-ban clause per Bloomberg — first explicit content-rejection since "final stages" frame; concrete-collision with Bessent's "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" directional-carrier.
3. Trump broke afternoon-silence-C258 with Bloomberg "talks moving along" — modest performative-optimism-outer vs substantive-collision-inner.
4. Brent $82.15 Aug-7-close (−0.41%) + WTI $78.07 Aug-7-close (+1.01%) — spread narrows to $4.08 tightest since pre-war; reflects tighter US-crude-balance + European risk-off pricing 60% modified-deal-probability.
5. Saudi Arabia struck Hodeidah Friday + Houthis retaliated with 12 missiles on Hadramout+Marib per Al Jazeera Aug-7 — Saudi retaliation for Wafa/Daisy materialized; independent kinetic-escalation.
6. Iran-backed militia coalition Aug-7 deadline for Iraq TODAY per CNN — independent Iraq-front kinetic-risk elevated at day-end.
7. Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-crisis consolidated into open cabinet-military rupture — Netanyahu "obscene behavior" + Zamir "You're not going anywhere" + JPost "Iran will never have nuclear weapons with or without a deal."
8. Al-Rekayyat Qatari LNG tanker strike is Jul-7 event, NOT Aug-6 — provenance clarified; distinct from Aug-6 Kumzar-SE near-miss (C257 initial data-clarification conflated the two).
9. QatarEnergy force-majeure extended to end-August per Daily Destination — ~2-week extension vs C257 mid-August read.

(b) Structural Locks Status (C258)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟡 VOLATILE-CARRIES + AUG-7-CLOSE-DATA + SPREAD-NARROWED-C258 — Brent $82.15 close, WTI $78.07 close, spread $4.08 tightest-since-pre-war; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS; downward-drift consistent with modified-deal-probability pricing. HOLDING.
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES + QATAR-END-AUGUST-C258 — Iraq-Turkey 170-200K CARRIES; OPEC+ Sep-hike + CPC 1.66 mb/d + Iraq Kpler ~1 mb/d + EIA-SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure extension marginal-tightening. LOOSENING.
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴 HOLDING-CARRIES — Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1-10% CARRIES; P&I ALL-withdrawn CARRIES; US-ban-clause-rejection suggests insurance-restoration mechanics not-imminent. HOLDING.
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES — Crew refusal + fixture cancellation persistent. HOLDING.
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴 US-BAN-FAULT-LINE-SURFACING-BLOCKS-C258 — Trump admin explicit-rejection of US/Israeli-ship-ban clause introduces first-explicit-content-obstacle since final-stages frame; SNSC 12-of-13 CARRIES; Mojtaba 11th cycle pending; performative-optimism-outer + substantive-collision-inner. TIGHTENING at content-level despite optimism-outer.
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + NETANYAHU-JPOST-"WITH-OR-WITHOUT-DEAL"-HARDENS-C258 + IAEA-31ST-CYCLE-NO-STAFF — Netanyahu-CBS-Katz-uranium-endorsement CARRIES + JPost-hardening. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-CARRIES + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE-TEMPO-CARRIES + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE-C258 + HOUTHI-12-MISSILE-RETALIATION-C258 + IRAQ-MILITIA-DEADLINE-TODAY-C258 — Multi-front kinetic-escalation. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED-BY-APRIL-PRECEDENT-C257 CARRIES — damage-control-severity bounded but constraint-materiality CARRIES. TIGHTENING but bounded.
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-WAFA-DAISY-CARRIES + SAUDI-HODEIDAH-STRIKE-RETALIATION-C258 — Multi-front kinetic-escalation independent of Hormuz-deal-track. TIGHTENING (independent).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-CARRIES + MOJTABA-11TH-CYCLE-PENDING + ISRAELI-KATZ-ZAMIR-BLUTH-RUPTURE-INTENSIFIES-C258 — Iranian internal-split CARRIES; Israeli cabinet-military rupture INTENSIFIES with Zamir siding-against-Katz-Netanyahu. MIXED with Israeli-side-tightening.
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴 QATAR-17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-CARRIES + END-AUGUST-EXTENSION-C258 + 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT + $20B-LOST-REVENUE-QUANTIFIED — force-majeure ~2-week extension. HOLDING with longer-tail-refinement.

(c) Critical Watch (0-72h C258)

1. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication — Sat/Sun window; would need US-ban-clause dropped or reframed to secure US assent; if published unchanged, US-rejection stands.
2. US formal announcement/counter-proposal — Whether Trump admin proposes modified-framework Sat-Sun or holds-out for Iran-concession.
3. Iran-response to US-rejection — Whether Iran modifies US-ban-clause or hardens position; Baghaei public-statement on rejection watch.
4. Mojtaba-Khamenei sign-off — 11th cycle pending; SNSC-12-of-13 vote CARRIES.
5. Trump Sat/Sun modulation — leaker-hunt vs formal-announcement priority-ordering.
6. Brent Sat-open — sub-$80 sustained = de-escalation-signal; above-$88 = collapse-pricing.
7. Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis — whether triggers cabinet-reshuffle or IDF-command-crisis.
8. Saudi-Houthi Sat/Sun — kinetic-escalation continuation-risk elevated post-Hodeidah-strike + 12-missile-retaliation.
9. Iraq-front post-deadline — Iran-backed-militia action if Iraq fails to respond by Aug-7-end.
10. Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic — Al-Rekayyat Jul-7-context + Kumzar Aug-6 CARRIES; watch-window continues.
11. EIA next weekly Aug-12 — T+5 days; SPR-draw continuation signal.
12. IAEA Grossi Aug-8/9 — 31-cycle silence; any statement material.
13. Pentagon aide-suspensions — April-precedent-pattern watch-continues.
14. Israeli "round 2" strike-plan — advancement despite deal-track; Netanyahu-JPost-hardening increases risk.
15. Rezaei-hardliner — Sat/Sun escalation or defer.

(d) Net Assessment

Overall crisis trajectory C258: The C257 quiet-Aug-7-afternoon-stall has been EXPLAINED-C258 — the substantive obstacle driving four-day formal-announcement-slippage is Iran's US/Israeli-ship-ban + hostile-country-compensation clause, which Trump administration has explicitly rejected per Bloomberg + NPR. This is the first explicit content-rejection since the Iran-Oman "final stages" frame began, and it materializes what Baghaei's "third party obstruction" warning had implicitly foreshadowed. The C257 base-case (55-65% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 partial announcement) is REVISED-DOWNWARD given the concrete content-collision: revised C258 base-case 40-55% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 modified-partial announcement (with US-ban clause dropped, softened, or reframed as reciprocal-security-arrangement), 25-35% Sun-Mon-Tue slippage, 15-25% deal-collapse tail if Iran refuses to modify or Israel-Netanyahu forces pre-emptive strike leveraging the Bluth-crisis.

What the structural locks pattern implies: Duration-lock loosening-momentum PLATEAUED at C257 has REVERSED to CONTENT-BLOCKING-C258; Supply-lock easing-CARRIES; Iranian-side Leadership-loosening (SNSC 12/13) CARRIES; Israeli-side Leadership INTENSIFIED-TIGHTENING (Katz-Zamir-Bluth rupture + Netanyahu-JPost-hardening). Multi-front kinetic-escalation (Saudi-Hodeidah + Houthi-12-missiles + Iraq-militia-Aug-7-deadline) INDEPENDENT of Hormuz-deal-track increases collateral-collapse-risk. The pattern suggests Hormuz-deal announcement is possible but now requires either (i) Iran to drop/soften US-ban clause, or (ii) US to accept reciprocal-security-framework as face-saving concession, or (iii) Oman to broker face-saving reframing — none of which are 0-72h certain. Ceasefire on Hormuz-front does NOT equal energy-crisis-resolution CARRIES; Qatar force-majeure end-August-extension quantifies the multi-week-tail.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: Base-case Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 modified-partial formal-announcement with US-ban clause reframed; delayed insurance-restoration Q4; energy-price volatility persists $75-$95 band Q3-Q4; Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb + Saudi-Hodeidah retaliation-cycle independent of Hormuz-track (further escalation risk elevated); Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-year-offline + 21-cargoes-thru-early-Sept + $20B lost-revenue + end-August-force-majeure structural; SPR-drawdown continues (US 42.7% capacity approaching operational-minimums); Iraq-front kinetic risk post-Aug-7-deadline. Downside-tail 25-30%: Mojtaba-veto of SNSC-approved-MoU + Israeli-side pre-emptive strike triggered by Bluth-Zamir-cabinet-crisis or Netanyahu-JPost-hardening operational-execution + Iran refuses to modify US-ban-clause and Trump-decapitation-frame-execution despite munitions-constraint + full-collapse to renewed active-war + Saudi-Yemen open kinetic + Iraq-militia direct-action post-deadline.

Key uncertainties: (a) Whether Iran will modify/drop US-ban clause in response to Trump-rejection; (b) Trump's next-move — counter-proposal Sat-Sun or hold-out; (c) Mojtaba's actual position on SNSC-approved-MoU (11th cycle pending); (d) Whether Netanyahu-Katz-Zamir Bluth-crisis breaks open or contains; (e) Saudi-Houthi kinetic-escalation timeline post-Hodeidah + 12-missiles; (f) Iraq-front outcome post-Aug-7-militia-deadline; (g) Brent Sat-open direction (sub-$80 = de-escalation; above-$88 = collapse); (h) Whether US-ban-clause rejection was pre-negotiated posture or genuine deal-breaker.

Sources (C258 web sweep)

• Trump Says Hormuz Talks 'Moving Along' Even as Iran Mulls US Ban (Bloomberg)
• Iran-Oman Deal Proposes Ban on US, Israeli Ships in Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg)
• Iran Seeks Hormuz Shipping Restrictions (Bloomberg Newsletter)
• Iran aims to ban U.S. and Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz and charge others a toll (NPR)
• Iran Mulls Ban of U.S. Ships from Strait of Hormuz (Political Wire)
• Iran Weighs US, Israeli Ships Ban in Strait of Hormuz (Whatfinger)
• A deal with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz may require a compromise from Trump (Washington Post)
• Iran live updates: Iran says framework of Oman agreement finalized (ABC News)
• Iran, Oman say Strait of Hormuz talks in final stages (CNBC)
• Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage; warns of third party obstruction (IRNA English)
• Iran and Oman agree route for ships in Strait of Hormuz (Euronews)
• Live Updates: Iran, Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz getting close (CBS)
• Iran and the U.S. say a Strait of Hormuz deal is close (NBC)
• Iran war live: Trump says war can't 'go much longer'; Hormuz deal close (Al Jazeera)
• Houthi strikes hit Yemen as Saudi Arabia braces for attacks: What we know (Al Jazeera)
• Yemen's Houthis strike Saudi-flagged oil tanker in Red Sea (Washington Times)
• Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Crude Oil WTI - Price - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Crude Oil Price Today: August 7, 2026 (Forbes Advisor)
• Crude Oil Price Today: Brent, WTI and the Hormuz Question (Vantage Markets)
• Current price of oil as of August 7, 2026 (Fortune)
• UKMTO says tanker reports being struck in Strait of Hormuz (Middle East Eye)
• Iranian missiles reportedly hit Saudi, Qatari tankers in Strait of Hormuz (Jerusalem Post)
• Attacked Qatari LNG tanker Al-Rekayyat is at risk of exploding: Reuters (Arab News)
• Qatar blames Iran after LNG tanker struck in Strait of Hormuz (The National)
• Saudi, Qatari tankers hit as Strait of Hormuz risks worsen (Al Jazeera)
• Qatari LNG Tanker Awaits Salvage off Oman After Projectile Strike (US News)
• Tanker reports hearing two explosions in Strait of Hormuz but vessel and crew safe, UKMTO says (Deccan Herald)
• CENTCOM Says 48 Vessels Diverted Under Iran Naval Blockade (IranWire)
• 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran (Wikipedia)
• Pezeshkian Says Access to Mojtaba Khamenei Is "Very Difficult" (Iranwire)
• Mojtaba Khamenei says he approved Iran-US MoU despite reservations (Iran International)
• Report: Netanyahu furious with Katz over Bluth replacement; Zamir tells general: 'You're not going anywhere' (Times of Israel)
• Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran will never have nuclear weapons 'with or without a deal' (Jerusalem Post)
• Katz: Removal of enriched uranium from Iran is 'precondition' to ending war (Times of Israel)
• Netanyahu: Iran's enriched uranium will be removed, by agreement or in resumed fighting (Times of Israel)
• Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal (Washington Post)
• Basra Oil Set for Export via Kurdistan Region Pipeline to Türkiye's Ceyhan Port (Kurdistan24)
• Iraq Oil Exports Through Turkey: Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline Revival 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• QatarEnergy LNG force majeure extends into mid-August (Riviera)
• Qatar extends force majeure on LNG supplies until end of August 2026 (Daily Destination)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to Mid-August 2026 (energynews.pro)
• Force majeure on QatarEnergy LNG extends to fourth month (AGBI)
• Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations (Al Jazeera)
• Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026) (UN Press)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve Levels (OilPriceAPI)
• DOE has released 17.5 million barrels from SPR since March (EIA)
• The Hormuz Buffer: Asian Oil Security Amid Prolonged Middle East Conflict (Asia Media Centre)
• Iran War Casualties 2026 (militaryspend.org)
• Iran Update Special Report, August 3, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• Hormuz Shipping War Risk Insurance: Crisis, Costs & Recovery 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• AWRP - War Risk Premiums Surge - Hormuz War Risk Insurance (Marine News Network)
• Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei: Oman Deal Won't Reopen Hormuz (Iranwire)
• Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz in drafting stage: Baghaei (Mehr News)
• Iran News in Brief – August 7, 2026 (NCRI)
• Iran War 2026 — Day 159 Update — 05 August 2026 (GlobalSecurity)