Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-07 · Cycle 2 (C257)

War Day: 161 | Blockade Day: 25 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-7 late-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🟢🟢🟢🔴 IRAN-OMAN JOINT-STATEMENT REMAINS IN "FINAL STAGES" — FOURTH-DAY SLIPPAGE (Wed→Thu→Fri-AM→Fri-PM WITHOUT MATERIALIZATION) + NO FRESH TRUMP DEAL-STATEMENT IN AUG-7-AFTERNOON WINDOW C257 — Al Jazeera live-blog + Reuters + CNBC scan Aug-7-late-CEST: NO fresh Fri-Aug-7-afternoon Trump statement on Iran-Oman-deal-timing; the Fri Al Jazeera-morning "pretty soon" (C256) is now the operative frame; C256 → C257 delta reveals quiet-Aug-7-afternoon with no push to formal announcement despite reported deal-content-approval | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 UKMTO KUMZAR-SE EXPLOSIONS INCIDENT DATA-CLARIFIED-C257 per Sputnik + Deccan Herald + Arab News + Middle East Eye — UKMTO issued "ATTACK" warning after two explosions reported 9 nautical miles SE of Kumzar, Oman (northern Strait mouth); vessel + crew reported safe, no environmental damage; timing appears to be Aug-6 Wed per Sputnik Aug-6 timestamp, likely straddles C255→C256 window rather than fresh-C257; incident NOT previously logged in C255/C256 tracker table — DATA-CLARIFIED and appended below; material because it's the FIRST NEAR-MISS TANKER EVENT IN HORMUZ-PROPER SINCE JUL-27 WAVE (~11 days) — 6+ cycle streak of no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic BREAKS RETROACTIVELY | 🟡 WTI $77.75 AUG-6-CLOSE +3.37% DATA-CORRECTION-C257 per tradingeconomics + Investing.com — corrects C256's WTI $75.22 CARRIES (which was stale-LiteFinance-week-prior print); Brent $83.34 Aug-6-close +4.9% (C256 read stands); no Aug-7-close data at C257-write T+~5h from C256; Aug-7 open $83.53 per tradingeconomics; volatility-band $75-$88 confirms lack-of-price-conviction | 🔴🔴🔴 PENTAGON LEAK-INVESTIGATION HISTORICAL-CONTEXT-C257 per Washington Examiner + AOL + Fox — Trump-leaker-hunt of C256 references APRIL-2026 Hegseth-aides-leave-episode (Caldwell, Selnick, Carroll) as precedent-pattern; Aug-6/7 Truth Social escalation is procedural-reinvocation of prior April infrastructure; DOJ task-force framework re-activated | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CENTCOM 48 VESSELS UPDATE CARRIES from C256 — no fresh CENTCOM print in ~5h window; 48-redirected + 2-disabled + 2-boarded CARRIES; blockade-tempo assessment CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTE-DISCLOSURE CARRIES from C256 — Shabtabnews Aug-6 mirrors Iranwire disclosure; no fresh Mojtaba-Khamenei public response ~5h window; 10th-cycle-pending on Mojtaba formal sign-off — Pezeshkian June-18 Mojtaba-message CONTEXTUALIZES per iranwire-substack: Mojtaba "reluctantly approved" MoU on President-accepted-responsibility grounds; C257 read: sign-off-pending is at Mojtaba-signature not Mojtaba-approval | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN 4-COMMITMENT + BAGHAEI-THIRD-PARTY-WARNING CARRIES; NO fresh Baghaei Aug-7-afternoon statement | 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-CBS URANIUM CARRIES; ISRAELI-COALITION-CONSOLIDATED CARRIES; no fresh Netanyahu-Katz Aug-7 statement | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT MFA / BAHRAIN UNSC HISTORICAL-CARRIES; NO fresh C257 formal-vote or Kuwait target | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES | 🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 30th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-7 statement | 🔴 IRAQ KPLER 30M/MONTH ~1 MB/D CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey pipeline 750K bpd capacity CARRIES; current-throughput 170-200K bpd per Kurdistan24 refinement-C257 (was C256 140K bpd) | 🔴 SPR 304.8M mb DRAW-RESUMED CARRIES; SPR 42.7% of capacity per Vault Report + OilPriceAPI refinement-C257 | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATAR RAS LAFFAN 17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-OFFLINE CARRIES + AGBI-EDISON 17-CARGOES + 21-TOTAL-THRU-EARLY-SEPT REFINEMENT-C257; QatarEnergy force-majeure extends into mid-August + $20B lost-revenue per Riviera + Fox Business | Cycle: C257 (Fri-Aug-7 late-CEST ~18:00 / Fri-noon-ET ~12:00, ~5h delta from C256 Fri-mid-CEST ~13:00)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timeout on Grok_outputs folder lookup (MCP-32001 timeout); THIRTIETH consecutive cycle: C228→C257. Full 13-topic web sweep executed on: Iran-Oman-joint-statement-Aug-7 + Trump-Iran-Hormuz-Fri-Aug-7 + Brent-WTI-Aug-6-close + Aug-7-intraday + Houthi-Red-Sea-Wafa-Daisy-post-Aug-5 + UKMTO-Kumzar-explosions-Aug-6 + Trump-Hegseth-leaker-hunt-Pentagon-denial-historical + Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-SNSC-MoU-vote + CENTCOM-48-vessels-blockade + Iraq-Basra-Kirkuk-Ceyhan-pipeline + Qatar-Ras-Laffan-force-majeure + Bahrain-Kuwait-UNSC + IAEA-Grossi + Bushehr-Natanz-nuclear + Japan-Korea-India-SPR + Netanyahu-uranium + Baghaei-Iran-MFA + Bessent-Rubio-Cabinet + oil-price-Aug-7 + Iran-war-Aug-7-evening + Saudi-Houthi-retaliation-Aug-7 + Mojtaba-response.

Baseline: C256 / 2026-08-07 Fri-mid-CEST (TRUMP-AL-JAZEERA-"WAR-CANT-GO-MUCH-LONGER" + TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-ESCALATES-PENTAGON-DENIAL + PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU + CENTCOM-48-VESSELS-UPDATE + BRENT-$83.34-AUG-6-CLOSE-RECONCILES-SUB-$80-AS-INTRADAY + QATARENERGY-FORCE-MAJEURE-EXTENDED-MID-AUGUST + IRAQ-TURKEY-750K-BPD-CONFIRMED + THIRD-DAY-FORMAL-ANNOUNCEMENT-SLIPPAGE).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-07 C257 Fri-late-CEST ~18:00 / Fri-noon-ET ~12:00, ~5h delta from C256): C257 is a QUIET-AFTERNOON-STALL + FOURTH-DAY-SLIPPAGE + UKMTO-KUMZAR-DATA-CLARIFICATION + WTI-$77.75-DATA-CORRECTION + PENTAGON-LEAK-INVESTIGATION-HISTORICAL-CONTEXT + IRAQ-TURKEY-CURRENT-THROUGHPUT-REFINEMENT cycle at T+~5h from C256. The Fri-Aug-7-afternoon window (Fri-CEST 13:00-18:00 / Fri-ET 07:00-12:00) shows NO fresh Trump statement, NO fresh Baghaei statement, NO fresh Iran-Oman joint-statement release, NO fresh Netanyahu-Katz statement. This is a stall-cycle at the pre-weekend inflection. Six substantive-observations vs C256: (a) NO FRESH TRUMP AUG-7-AFTERNOON STATEMENT + FOURTH-DAY SLIPPAGE NEW-C257 — Al Jazeera live-blog + Reuters + CNBC + CBS scan of Fri-Aug-7-afternoon window shows the C256 Al Jazeera "pretty soon / much longer" frame is the operative statement; no new Trump modulation in ~5h window. Deal-window has now slipped Wed→Thu→Fri-AM→Fri-PM without materialization. Fourth-day slippage with no Trump-modulation may indicate: (i) Fri-late-ET / Sat-Aug-8 formal-announcement window, or (ii) internal-obstacles deepening. C256 read of "60-70% base-case Sat-Mon Aug-8-10" HOLDS at C257 with slight downward-drift given afternoon-silence. (b) UKMTO KUMZAR-SE EXPLOSIONS INCIDENT DATA-CLARIFIED-C257 per Sputnik Aug-6 + Deccan Herald + Arab News + Middle East Eye — UKMTO issued "ATTACK" warning after tanker reported hearing two explosions 9 nautical miles SE of Kumzar, Oman (northern Strait mouth). Vessel + crew safe, no environmental damage. Timing confirmed as Aug-6 Wed per Sputnik Aug-6 timestamp — straddles C255→C256 window but was NOT logged in either C255 or C256 tracker table. DATA-CLARIFIED-C257: appended to tanker attack log below as retroactive Aug-6-Wed entry. Material because: this is the FIRST NEAR-MISS TANKER EVENT IN HORMUZ-PROPER SINCE THE JUL-27 WAVE (~11-day interval); the "6+ cycle no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic" streak BREAKS RETROACTIVELY. Provenance for original delayed-surfacing unclear (may reflect UKMTO reporting-lag or Scout web-sweep coverage-gap). No fresh Aug-7 Hormuz-kinetic in C257 window. (c) WTI $77.75 AUG-6-CLOSE DATA-CORRECTION-C257 per tradingeconomics + Investing.com Forbes-Advisor — C255/C256 had WTI $75.22 close CARRYING from prior LiteFinance print (which was actually week-prior data, not Aug-6). Corrected value: WTI Aug-6-close $77.75 (+3.37% one-day). Brent $83.34 Aug-6-close +4.9% (C256 read stands). No Aug-7-close available at C257-write T+~5h. Aug-7 open Brent $83.53. WTI-Brent spread narrowed to $5.59 (vs C256-assumed $8.12) — reflects Cushing draw and tighter US crude balance. Lock-1 (Price) reading refined but overall volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS. (d) PENTAGON LEAK-INVESTIGATION HISTORICAL-CONTEXT-C257 per Washington Examiner + AOL Yahoo + Fox — C256's Trump-leaker-hunt Truth Social post + DOJ tasked draws on April-2026 precedent: three Hegseth aides (Senior Adviser Dan Caldwell, Deputy Chief of Staff Darin Selnick, Chief of Staff to Deputy Defense Secretary Colin Carroll) placed on administrative leave April-15, escorted from Pentagon, later fired after Signal-chat-leak-episode (mistaken inclusion of The Atlantic editor). C256-C257 read: current Trump-leaker-hunt is procedural-reinvocation of already-established April infrastructure, not net-new institutional escalation. Hegseth's April-response pattern was to publicly-name leakers and pursue via DOJ; Aug-6/7 pattern mirrors this. Institutional friction real but not novel — reduces the C256 read of "damage-control-phase" severity by ~1 tick; Lock-8 (Capability) TIGHTENS-CARRIES but bounded-by-institutional-precedent. (e) IRAQ-TURKEY PIPELINE CURRENT-THROUGHPUT REFINEMENT-C257 per Kurdistan24 + IndexBox + The National — C256 assumed 140K bpd current-flow via truck-hybrid; C257 refinement: actual current throughput is 170-200K bpd per Kurdistan24 Aug-refresh (400 tanker trucks daily Zubair→K1→28-receiving-points→Ceyhan pipeline). 750K bpd capacity CARRIES as one-year-deal-ceiling. Delta: +30-60K bpd vs C256-assumption; still 550-580K bpd headroom to full-capacity. Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES-C257 slightly-refined-favorably. (f) QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPTEMBER REFINEMENT-C257 per AGBI + energynews.pro — C256 read "force-majeure extends into mid-August" refined per AGBI: total cargoes affected reaches 21 through delivery-period April→early-September (~2.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas); Edison shortfall specifically 17 cargoes and 2.2 billion cubic meters. Estimated $20B lost-revenue and up-to-5-years to fully-repair per Fox Business + QatarEnergy internal-estimate. Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) CARRIES + REFINED-C257 with longer-tail-quantified. NO FRESH C257 SIGNALS IN: Trump-Truth-Social (Aug-7-PM); Baghaei-MFA (Aug-7-PM); Rubio-Bessent (Aug-7-PM); Netanyahu-Katz (Aug-7-PM); IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi (Aug-7-PM); Rezaei-state-TV (Aug-7-PM); Houthi-Saree-kinetic (Aug-7-PM); Hormuz-tanker-kinetic (Aug-7-PM); Kuwait-formal-target (Aug-7-PM); Bahrain-UNSC-vote (Aug-7-PM); IAEA-Grossi (Aug-7-PM); Saudi-Houthi-retaliation (Aug-7-PM); Mojtaba-formal-response (Aug-7-PM, 10th cycle pending). All C256 CARRIES apply where not superseded: Iran-Oman coordinates-agreed CARRIES; joint-statement "final drafting" CARRIES; route-mechanics two-lane + fee-split CARRIES; Iran 4-commitment US-conditions CARRIES; Netanyahu-CBS uranium-removal endorsement CARRIES + CONSOLIDATED; Katz-Bluth personal-friction CARRIES; Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 kinetic-execution CARRIES; EIA Aug-5 SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey 1-year pipeline deal Aug-1 CARRIES; Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES; Baghaei "warns of third party obstruction" CARRIES; CENTCOM 48-redirected + 2-disabled + 2-boarded CARRIES from C256; Qatari drafts "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1-3% (updated per marinenewsnetwork) + P&I 60× normal weekly CARRIES; IRGC-media denial CARRIES; Rezaei state-TV counter CARRIES; Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant CARRIES; Trump-last-chance-decapitation CARRIES; IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat CARRIES; IRGC MQ-9-Reaper-shootdown Aug-3 CARRIES (no Pentagon-response 6+ cycles); CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug per Reuters CARRIES; OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd CARRIES; Iraq Basra Aug 2.93 mb/d planned CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; Kuwait MFA + Bahrain UNSC HISTORICAL CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target-list CARRIES + REINFORCED-C255-via-Wafa-Daisy; QatarEnergy 33 US-LNG-hedge CARRIES; Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-years-offline CARRIES + REFINED-C257. C256 → C257 KEY DELTAS: (1) QUIET-AUG-7-AFTERNOON + FOURTH-DAY SLIPPAGE — No fresh Trump statement, no fresh Baghaei statement, no fresh Iran-Oman joint-statement release. (2) UKMTO KUMZAR-SE EXPLOSIONS DATA-CLARIFICATION — Retroactive Aug-6-Wed near-miss tanker incident appended; breaks the 6+ cycle no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic streak retroactively. (3) WTI $77.75 AUG-6-CLOSE DATA-CORRECTION — vs C255/C256 stale $75.22; WTI-Brent spread narrows to $5.59. (4) PENTAGON LEAK-INVESTIGATION HISTORICAL-CONTEXT — Current Trump-leaker-hunt is procedural-reinvocation of April-2026 infrastructure; bounds C256 damage-control-severity read. (5) IRAQ-TURKEY CURRENT-THROUGHPUT 170-200K bpd REFINEMENT — vs C256 140K bpd assumption. (6) QATARENERGY 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPTEMBER + $20B LOST-REVENUE + UP-TO-5-YEARS-REPAIR REFINEMENT — Lock-11 longer-tail quantified. Structural locks (C256 → C257): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES + WTI-DATA-CORRECTED-C257 — Brent $83.34 close CARRIES; WTI $77.75 close corrected; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS; Lock-2 (Supply) EASING-CARRIES + IRAQ-TURKEY-REFINED-C257 — 170-200K bpd throughput refined-upward; Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDING-CARRIES; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES; Lock-5 (Duration) TIGHTENS-FAVORABLY-CARRIES-C257 via SNSC-12-of-13-vote-CARRIES — 10th cycle Mojtaba sign-off pending; C257 quiet-afternoon doesn't tighten OR loosen further; Lock-6 (Nuclear) CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + IAEA-30TH-CYCLE-NO-STAFF; Lock-7 (Geographic) HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-CARRIES + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE-TEMPO-CARRIES; Lock-8 (Capability) TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED-BY-APRIL-PRECEDENT-C257 — historical-context bounds severity but constraint-materiality CARRIES; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) HOUTHI-KINETIC-CARRIES; Lock-10 (Leadership) SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-CARRIES + ISRAELI-FIVE-TIER-CARRIES; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-CARRIES + 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT + $20B-LOST-REVENUE-QUANTIFIED-C257. Critical 0-8h Fri-Aug-7-late-ET + 0-16h Sat-Aug-8-open + 0-24h Sat-Aug-8 + 0-48h Sun-Aug-9: (a) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes Fri-late-ET/Sat/Sun; (b) Whether US formal announcement of Iran-Oman-arrangement materializes; (c) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU (10th cycle pending); (d) Whether Trump modulates leaker-hunt or issues fresh Hormuz-deal statement Sat-morning; (e) Whether Iran-formal-tier (Araghchi or Pezeshkian) publicly-addresses SNSC-12-of-13-disclosure implications; (f) Whether Brent Fri close holds $83-88 range or breaks sub-$80 or above $88; (g) Whether next EIA weekly (T+4-5 days) shows continued SPR-draw; (h) Whether Saudi retaliates for Wafa/Daisy strikes with Yemen kinetic; (i) Whether Houthi Aug-7/8 kinetic resumes; (j) Whether Iran-tanker-kinetic activity resumes in Aug-7→8 window (STRAIT-PROPER); (k) Whether Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-appointment triggers open-break; (l) Whether IAEA Grossi Aug-7/8 statement materializes; (m) Whether Bahrain UNSC produces fresh Iran-condemnation vote; (n) Whether Pentagon leak-investigation escalates via aide-suspension pattern (April-precedent); (o) Whether Israeli "round 2" strike-plan advances despite deal-track; (p) Whether Rezaei-hardliner escalates or defers; (q) Whether Baghaei publicly names US as "third party obstructor" if deal collapses; (r) Whether fresh Hormuz-proper tanker-kinetic materializes given retroactive-Kumzar-Aug-6 signal.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C256 → C257 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴 QUIET-AUG-7-AFTERNOON + FOURTH-DAY SLIPPAGE NEW-C257 — No fresh Trump statement, no fresh Baghaei, no fresh Iran-Oman joint-statement release in Fri-Aug-7 ~5h afternoon window.

• 🔴🔴🔴 UKMTO KUMZAR-SE EXPLOSIONS DATA-CLARIFICATION-C257 — Retroactive Aug-6-Wed near-miss tanker incident (9nm SE Kumzar, Oman); vessel/crew safe; breaks 6+ cycle no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic streak retroactively.

• 🟡 WTI $77.75 AUG-6-CLOSE DATA-CORRECTION-C257 — vs C255/C256 stale $75.22; WTI-Brent spread narrows to $5.59; volatility-band $75-$88 HOLDS.

• 🟡 PENTAGON LEAK-INVESTIGATION HISTORICAL-CONTEXT-C257 — Current Trump-leaker-hunt is procedural-reinvocation of April-2026 Caldwell-Selnick-Carroll aide-suspension precedent; bounds C256 damage-control-severity read.

• 🟢🟡 IRAQ-TURKEY CURRENT-THROUGHPUT 170-200K BPD REFINEMENT-C257 — vs C256 140K bpd assumption; 550-580K bpd headroom to 750K capacity.

• 🔴🔴 QATARENERGY 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT + $20B-LOST-REVENUE + UP-TO-5-YEARS-REPAIR REFINEMENT-C257 — Lock-11 longer-tail quantified; 17%-up-to-5-years CARRIES.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 PEZESHKIAN SNSC 12-OF-13 VOTED-MoU CARRIES from C256 — Shabtabnews Aug-6 mirrors Iranwire; 10th cycle Mojtaba formal sign-off pending; deal-content de-facto-approved.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CENTCOM 48 VESSELS UPDATE CARRIES from C256 — no fresh CENTCOM print in ~5h window.

• 🟢🔴 BRENT $83.34 AUG-6-CLOSE CARRIES from C256; no Aug-7-close data at C257-write.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 IRAN-OMAN JOINT-STATEMENT IN "FINAL STAGES" CARRIES — Baghaei via Global Security IRNA + Marine Log + Euronews.

• 🟢🟢🟢 IRAN-OMAN ROUTE MECHANICS (TWO-LANE + FEE-SPLIT) CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN 4-COMMITMENT US-CONDITIONS CARRIES — Gharibabadi list CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT WITHOUT IRANIAN TOLLS" CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BAGHAEI "WARNS OF THIRD PARTY OBSTRUCTION" CARRIES — Iran implicitly targets US.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY KINETIC EXECUTION AUG-5 CARRIES; no fresh Aug-7 Houthi kinetic in ~5h window.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL CARRIES + CONSOLIDATED; no fresh Netanyahu Aug-7-PM statement.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH PERSONAL-FRICTION CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES; no fresh C257 IRGC-Aerospace print.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" CARRIES + INSTITUTIONAL-CONTEXT-BOUNDED-C257.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES — Bounded-by-munitions-constraint.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — No Pentagon-response 6+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG CARRIES per Reuters.

• 🟢🟡 IRAQ BASRA AUG 2.93 MB/D PLANNED CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES; no fresh Kuwait target C257.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN RETALIATION-PLAN 5-GULF-STATE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 HISTORICAL-CARRIES; NO fresh C257 formal-vote.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 30th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-7 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED but CENTCOM SOUTHERN-ROUTE FREE-AND-OPEN + IRAQ-KPLER 1 MB/D FLOW CARRIES.

• 🔴 NO FRESH TANKER ATTACK IN HORMUZ-PROPER C257 AFTERNOON WINDOW (~5h window Aug-7-mid→late CEST); but RETROACTIVE Aug-6-Wed KUMZAR-SE INCIDENT SURFACED.

• 🔴 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE PENDING C257 — 10th cycle pending; SNSC-12-of-13-vote-approved MoU; sign-off is procedural-signature not substantive-approval per iranwire-substack Jun-18 context.

• 🔴 SPR 304.8M MB / 42.7% CAPACITY DRAW-RESUMED CARRIES; no fresh EIA print T+~5h.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 161 / Ceasefire STATUS: IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-STATEMENT-IN-FINAL-STAGES-FOURTH-DAY-SLIPPAGE-C257 + QUIET-AUG-7-AFTERNOON-C257 + UKMTO-KUMZAR-DATA-CLARIFICATION-C257 + WTI-$77.75-DATA-CORRECTION-C257 + PENTAGON-LEAK-HISTORICAL-CONTEXT-C257 + IRAQ-TURKEY-THROUGHPUT-170-200K-C257 + QATARENERGY-21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT-C257 + PROVENANCE-FROM-C256-CARRIES. C257 confirms: (a) Fourth-day formal-announcement slippage — Iran-Oman joint-statement remains "final stages"; (b) Quiet Aug-7-afternoon — no fresh Trump, Baghaei, Rubio, Bessent, Netanyahu, Katz, Rezaei, IRGC, Grossi, Houthi Saree; (c) UKMTO Kumzar-SE explosions Aug-6-Wed retroactively surfaced — breaks 6+ cycle no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic streak; (d) WTI $77.75 Aug-6-close corrects stale $75.22; (e) Trump-leaker-hunt = April-precedent-reinvocation bounds severity read; (f) Iraq-Turkey pipeline 170-200K bpd throughput refined-upward from C256 140K; (g) QatarEnergy 21-cargoes-thru-early-September + $20B lost-revenue + up-to-5-years-repair quantified; (h) All C256 substantive frameworks CARRIES; (i) No fresh Kuwait target, nuclear-facility strike, Bahrain UNSC vote, IAEA Grossi, Saudi-Houthi retaliation. War cost $37.5B CARRIES. C256 → C257 (~5h delta Fri-mid-CEST → Fri-late-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C257 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — Fourth-day slippage-CARRIES; quiet-afternoon; SNSC 12-of-13 CARRIES; Mojtaba sign-off 10th cycle pending
• 🟢🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-CBS uranium CARRIES + Katz-Bluth-friction CARRIES; Trump-Hegseth-clash munitions-narrative-toxicity BOUNDED-by-April-precedent
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement in "final stages" CARRIES; Baghaei-third-party-warning CARRIES
• 🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-years + 21-cargoes-thru-early-Sept + $20B-lost-revenue REFINED-C257
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Katz-uranium + Netanyahu-CBS-endorsement CARRIES
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-coalition-CONSOLIDATED CARRIES; IAEA-no-staff CARRIES 30th cycle
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint — Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES; no fresh Aug-7 Houthi kinetic in ~5h window

• 🔴🔴 NEW No fresh Trump Aug-7-afternoon statement; fourth-day slippage
• 🔴🔴🔴 DATA-CLARIFICATION UKMTO Kumzar-SE explosions Aug-6-Wed retroactively appended
• 🟡 DATA-CORRECTION WTI $77.75 Aug-6-close (vs C255/C256 stale $75.22)
• 🟡 HISTORICAL-CONTEXT Trump-leaker-hunt = April-Caldwell-Selnick-Carroll precedent-reinvocation
• 🟢🟡 REFINEMENT Iraq-Turkey pipeline throughput 170-200K bpd (vs C256 140K assumption)
• 🔴🔴 REFINEMENT QatarEnergy 21-cargoes-thru-early-Sept + $20B-lost-revenue + up-to-5-years-repair
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Iran-Oman coordinates agreed + joint-statement "final stages"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran 4-commitment US-conditions (Gharibabadi list)
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Pezeshkian SNSC 12/13 voted MoU-with-US
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES CENTCOM 48 vessels redirected
• 🟢🔴 CARRIES Brent $83.34 Aug-6-close
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial + Rezaei hardliner two-phase-Trump-counter (state-TV)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + REINFORCED Netanyahu CBS 60 Minutes uranium-removal endorsement of Katz-precondition
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-appointment personal-friction
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + INSTITUTIONAL-CONTEXT-BOUNDED-C257 US munitions "dangerously low" (Trump-Hegseth-Camp-David-clash + Parnell-denial + Trump-leaker-hunt = April-precedent-reinvocation)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant + Trump-decapitation-frame (bounded by munitions-constraint)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 Reaper shootdown Aug-3 (no Pentagon-response 6+ cycles)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat command-tier
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug expected per Reuters
• 🟢 CARRIES OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd ratified
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 + MFA-UNSC-2817-invocation
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure guidance
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + REINFORCED-C255 Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff in Iran + satellite-only (30th cycle)
• 🟢 CARRIES Al Areesh delivery + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS
• 🔴 No fresh tanker attack IN HORMUZ-PROPER C257 afternoon window; RETROACTIVE Aug-6 KUMZAR-SE INCIDENT SURFACED
• 🔴 No fresh Houthi kinetic Aug-7 in ~5h afternoon window
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC formal vote C257
• 🔴 Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response PENDING C257 (10th cycle) — SNSC-12-of-13 CARRIES

• All casualty figures CARRY unchanged from C256 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~5h window)
• Total war deaths: 8,976–18,310+ per militaryspend.org CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wikipedia / 3,636 HRANA / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,219+ killed since March 2; 1.2M+ displaced (CARRIES)
• US KIA/wounded: 18 killed / 687 wounded (of which 4 killed / 270 wounded since Jul-7) per DCAS per CNN Aug-4 CARRIES
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss $ tally per Bloomberg: ~$1B / 24+ airframes ~20% pre-war inventory CARRIES

Net ceasefire trajectory C257: QUIET-AUG-7-AFTERNOON-STALL + FOURTH-DAY-SLIPPAGE indicates the SNSC-12-of-13-vote-disclosure momentum has PLATEAUED at the pre-weekend inflection. The C256 base-case (60-70% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10) HOLDS but with downward-drift given afternoon-silence — revised C257 base-case 55-65% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 partial announcement, with 20-25% Sun-Mon-Tue slippage, 15-20% deal-collapse/veto tail. UKMTO Kumzar-Aug-6-retroactive incident does NOT alter the trajectory reading directly (crew/vessel safe; no belligerent-claim) but does reset the "no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic" baseline from 6+ cycles back to ~0 cycles at C257-write.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: 92+ vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES from prior cycles); 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi blockade; C257 window (~5h) fresh: NONE in Hormuz-proper afternoon; NONE fresh Houthi Aug-7 in ~5h window; RETROACTIVE Aug-6-Wed Kumzar-SE incident surfaced-C257 (vessel/crew safe, near-miss).

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C257; CARRIES from C254/C255/C256.

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts (CARRIES from C256):

• Goldman: $85-95 Q3 range CARRIES
• JPM: "$95 midpoint if deal materializes; $110-125 if collapse" CARRIES
• EIA STEO Aug: $88.9 forecast CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE
• Bloomberg/oilprice.com: "market pricing 60% probability of interim deal" CARRIES

• NO FRESH C257 TRUMP AUG-7-AFTERNOON STATEMENT — C256 Al Jazeera "pretty soon" frame operative
• Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES — fees-fault-line
• Fourth-day slippage = execution-risk-signal for price

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status

Country reserves matrix

Announcement-vs-physical-delivery gap CARRIES from prior cycles: IEA-400M-announced Mar-11; ~17.5M actually delivered by end-April; running-total ~7-fold-lag persists CARRIES.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

• Pre-war Hormuz volume: ~20 mb/d crude + LNG
• Current bypass total (adjusted): ~7-8 mb/d realistic (E-W 4.5 + ADCOP 1.4 + Iraq-Turkey 0.17-0.20 + Oman 0.4 + Cape rerouting ~1-2)
• GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable — structural shortfall no amount of rerouting can close
• Iraq-Turkey pipeline 170-200K bpd throughput vs 750K capacity = 550-580K bpd headroom potential

7. Maritime Insurance

Cost per VLCC voyage (REFINED-C257): Pre-war $250-300K → Current $800K-$21M per voyage per marinenewsnetwork (hull-war 3-10% of $100-210M hull value = $3M-$21M; add crew-hazard + war-clauses; upper end for 270K-DWT VLCC at 10% peak-transit).

8. Shadow Fleet

C257 fresh signals: NONE in ~5h window.

Cumulative CARRIES:

• Shadow fleet size: 1,400+ vessels (~25% of global tanker fleet) CARRIES
• No new C257 seizures, sanctions designations, or enforcement actions
• GRU/Wagner militarization CARRIES
• Arctic Metagaz-type incident risk CARRIES
• Iran shadow-fleet friendly-fire CARRIES (no fresh)

9. Country Response Matrix

Belligerents (C257 deltas only):

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C257 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Quiet Aug-7-afternoon + fourth-day slippage — no fresh Trump, Baghaei, Rubio, Bessent, Netanyahu, Katz, Rezaei, IRGC, Grossi, Houthi Saree statements in ~5h afternoon window (Fri-CEST 13:00-18:00 / Fri-ET 07:00-12:00). Iran-Oman joint-statement remains "final stages"; Trump-deal statement remains at C256 Al Jazeera "pretty soon" frame.
2. UKMTO Kumzar-SE explosions Aug-6-Wed retroactively surfaced-C257 — tanker reported hearing two explosions 9nm SE Kumzar (northern Strait mouth); vessel/crew safe; no environmental damage; NOT logged in C255/C256 tracker tables; DATA-CLARIFIED and appended. Breaks 6+ cycle "no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic" streak retroactively.
3. WTI $77.75 Aug-6-close data-correction-C257 per tradingeconomics + Investing.com; corrects C255/C256 stale LiteFinance $75.22. WTI-Brent spread narrows to $5.59 from $8.12 assumption.
4. Trump leaker-hunt historical-context-C257 — Aug-6/7 Truth Social escalation is procedural-reinvocation of April-2026 Caldwell-Selnick-Carroll aide-suspension precedent; bounds C256 damage-control-severity read by ~1 tick.
5. Iraq-Turkey pipeline throughput refined to 170-200K bpd per Kurdistan24 (400 trucks daily Zubair→K1→28-receiving-points→Ceyhan); vs C256 140K bpd assumption; still 550-580K bpd headroom.
6. QatarEnergy 21-cargoes-thru-early-September + $20B lost-revenue + up-to-5-years-repair quantified-C257 per AGBI + Fox Business + Riviera; Lock-11 longer-tail formalized.
7. India Urals-substitution refined per Asia Media Centre — Russian Urals ~40% of imports + 30M spot; Phase-II strategic reserve 90-day-target 2028.
8. SPR 42.7% capacity refined per Vault Report + OilPriceAPI; approaching operational-minimums CARRIES.

(b) Structural Locks Status (C257)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟡 VOLATILE-CARRIES + WTI-DATA-CORRECTED-C257 — Brent $83.34 close CARRIES; WTI $77.75 close corrected +$2.53; WTI-Brent spread $5.59 narrowed; no sustained sub-$80 Brent-close. HOLDING.
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES + IRAQ-TURKEY-REFINED-C257 — 170-200K bpd throughput vs 140K assumption; 550-580K bpd headroom potential; OPEC+ Sep-hike + CPC 1.66 mb/d + Iraq Kpler ~1 mb/d + EIA-SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES. LOOSENING.
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴 HOLDING-CARRIES — Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1-10% (refined-upward C257); P&I ALL-withdrawn CARRIES; no P&I re-entry. HOLDING.
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES — Crew refusal + fixture cancellation persistent. HOLDING.
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🟢 TIGHTENS-FAVORABLY-CARRIES-C257 via SNSC-12-of-13-vote-CARRIES + QUIET-AFTERNOON-PLATEAU — 12/13 SNSC-vote CARRIES from C256; Mojtaba 10th cycle pending sign-off; C257 quiet-afternoon neither tightens nor loosens further — momentum PLATEAUED at pre-weekend. LOOSENING but PLATEAUED.
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + IAEA-30TH-CYCLE-NO-STAFF — Netanyahu-CBS-Katz-uranium-endorsement CARRIES; Rubio "denuclearization ultimate deal" CARRIES. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-CARRIES + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE-TEMPO-CARRIES + KUMZAR-RETROACTIVE-C257 — Wafa+Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES; UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 retroactive break-of-streak; CENTCOM 48-vessels CARRIES. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-BOUNDED-BY-APRIL-PRECEDENT-C257 — damage-control-severity read reduced ~1 tick given April Caldwell-Selnick-Carroll precedent-reinvocation; constraint-materiality CARRIES. TIGHTENING but bounded.
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-WAFA-DAISY-CARRIES + NO-FRESH-AUG-7-KINETIC — Bab-el-Mandeb-Yanbu-blockade INDEPENDENT of Hormuz-deal-track. TIGHTENING (independent).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🟡 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-CARRIES + MOJTABA-10TH-CYCLE-PENDING + ISRAELI-FIVE-TIER-FRAGMENTED-CARRIES — Iranian internal split now-quantified CARRIES; Mojtaba sign-off procedural not substantive per iranwire-substack Jun-18 context. MIXED.
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴 QATAR-17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-CARRIES + 21-CARGOES-THRU-EARLY-SEPT-QUANTIFIED-C257 + $20B-LOST-REVENUE-QUANTIFIED-C257 — force-majeure extension refresh; longer-tail formalized. HOLDING with longer-tail-quantified.

(c) Critical Watch (0-72h C257)

1. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication — Fri-late-ET / Sat / Sun window; if beyond 72h with no explanation, "third party obstruction" materializes.
2. Mojtaba-Khamenei sign-off — 10th cycle pending; SNSC-12-of-13 vote sets high bar for veto; procedural-timeline could be Sat-Sun-Mon.
3. Trump Sat/Sun modulation — leaker-hunt narrative-management; formal-announcement timing; whether Sat-morning Truth Social push materializes.
4. US formal announcement — fourth-day slippage; whether Sat-Sun formal statement materializes.
5. Brent Fri close — sub-$80 sustained would be de-escalation-signal; above-$88 would signal deal-collapse pricing.
6. Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-crisis — whether open-break triggers or defers.
7. Saudi retaliation for Wafa/Daisy — Yemen kinetic response likelihood rising.
8. Houthi Aug-7/8 kinetic — resume-in-window risk.
9. Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic — Kumzar-Aug-6 retroactive signal + no-fresh-Aug-7-afternoon; watch-window resets.
10. EIA next weekly — T+4-5 days; SPR-draw continuation signal.
11. IAEA Grossi Aug-7/8 — 30-cycle silence; any statement material.
12. Pentagon leak-investigation — internal-White-House-turmoil escalation risk; April-precedent-pattern watch-for-aide-suspensions.
13. Israeli "round 2" strike-plan — advancement despite deal-track.
14. Rezaei-hardliner — Sat/Sun escalation or defer.
15. Kumzar-SE Aug-6 incident — provenance identification (mine? projectile? training?); belligerent-claim watch.

(d) Net Assessment

Overall crisis trajectory C257: The C256 SNSC-12-of-13-disclosure momentum has PLATEAUED at Fri-Aug-7-afternoon with no fresh Trump modulation, no fresh Baghaei statement, and no formal Iran-Oman joint-statement release. Fourth-day slippage without materialization at the pre-weekend inflection reduces the C256 base-case (60-70% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10) to a revised C257 base-case 55-65% Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 partial announcement, with 20-25% Sun-Mon-Tue slippage, and 15-20% deal-collapse/Mojtaba-veto tail. The Kumzar-SE Aug-6 UKMTO-surfaced incident does not alter the diplomatic trajectory directly but does reset the "no-fresh-Hormuz-kinetic" baseline and raise Mine-threat readings.

What the structural locks pattern implies: Duration-lock loosening momentum PLATEAUED + Supply-lock easing (Iraq-Turkey refined-upward, OPEC+ hike, CPC at-cap) + Leadership Iranian-side loosening. Against these: Insurance-lock (P&I no-re-entry) + Nuclear-lock (Netanyahu-CBS-consolidated) + Geographic-lock (CENTCOM blockade-tempo + Kumzar-retroactive) + Capability-lock (munitions-narrative-toxicity bounded by April-precedent) + Dual-Chokepoint-lock (Houthi Wafa/Daisy independent). The pattern suggests that the Hormuz-deal announcement is likely to materialize but is now weekend-bound rather than Fri-materialized; the substantive locks (Insurance, Nuclear, Energy-Infrastructure Qatar $20B $ up-to-5-years-quantified) will PERSIST past any Hormuz-deal-execution. Ceasefire on Hormuz-front does NOT equal energy-crisis-resolution CARRIES from C256.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: Base-case Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 partial formal-announcement with joint-statement release; delayed insurance-restoration Q4; energy-price volatility persists $75-$95 band Q3-Q4; Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb-Saudi-blockade independent of Hormuz-track (Saudi retaliation risk rising); Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-year-offline + 21-cargoes-thru-early-Sept + $20B lost-revenue structural; SPR-drawdown continues (US 42.7% capacity approaching operational-minimums). Downside-tail 25-30%: Mojtaba-veto of SNSC-approved-MoU + Israeli-side pre-emptive strike triggered by Bluth-appointment-crisis + Trump-decapitation-frame-execution despite munitions-constraint + full-collapse to renewed active-war + Kumzar-Aug-6-incident-provenance escalation if belligerent-claim materializes.

Key uncertainties: (a) Mojtaba's actual position on SNSC-approved-MoU (procedural sign-off vs substantive veto — 10th cycle pending); (b) Trump's leaker-hunt vs formal-announcement priority-ordering; (c) Whether Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-crisis breaks open before Aug-8 announcement window; (d) Saudi retaliation timeline for Wafa/Daisy; (e) Whether SNSC-approved-MoU addresses insurance-restoration mechanics; (f) Brent Aug-7-close direction (sub-$80 = de-escalation; above-$88 = collapse); (g) UKMTO Kumzar-SE Aug-6 incident provenance (mine? projectile? drill?) and belligerent-claim status.

Sources (C257 web sweep)

• Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage; warns of third party obstruction (Global Security IRNA)
• Iran says agreement on Hormuz shipping reached with Oman (Bloomberg Tax)
• August 5, 2026 — Houthis claim to attack Saudi oil tanker, Trump says Hormuz reopening 'soon' (CNN)
• Iran and Oman agree route for ships in Strait of Hormuz (Euronews)
• Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage (IRNA English)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (Wikipedia)
• Trump: Strait Of Hormuz Deal Could Come 'Tomorrow Or The Next Day' (Global Security RFERL)
• Trump warns Iran to open Hormuz or get 'hit very hard' (France 24)
• Live Updates: Iran, Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz getting close, Tehran says (CBS)
• Iran and the U.S. say a Strait of Hormuz deal is close (NBC)
• Iran, Oman say Strait of Hormuz talks in final stages, as Trump again teases a deal (CNBC)
• Trump Fuels Hopes of Hormuz Opening With Hints Deal Is Close (Bloomberg)
• Trump signals US, Iran close to deal reopening critical Strait of Hormuz (The Hill)
• Iran war live: Trump says war can't 'go much longer'; Hormuz deal close (Al Jazeera)
• Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Prices (Investing.com)
• Yemen's Houthis strike Saudi-flagged oil tanker in Red Sea (Washington Times)
• Yemen's Houthis reportedly strike Saudi tanker transiting Red Sea (Daily Sabah)
• Yemen's Houthis say they attacked ship in northern Red Sea (Yahoo)
• Pezeshkian Says Access to Mojtaba Khamenei Is "Very Difficult" (Iranwire)
• Pezeshkian Says Access to Mojtaba Khamenei Is "Very Difficult" (Shabtabnews)
• Mojtaba Says He Reluctantly Approved the MOU (iranwire substack)
• Iran Update Special Report, August 3, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• CENTCOM Says 48 Vessels Diverted Under Iran Naval Blockade (IranWire)
• CENTCOM says 44 commercial vessels redirected under Iran naval blockade (RSBN)
• 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran (Wikipedia)
• Katz: Removal of enriched uranium from Iran is 'precondition' to ending war (Times of Israel)
• Netanyahu: Iran's enriched uranium will be removed, by agreement or in resumed fighting (Times of Israel)
• Tanker reports hearing two explosions in Strait of Hormuz but vessel and crew safe, UKMTO says (Deccan Herald)
• Tanker Reports Hearing Two Explosions in Strait of Hormuz — UKMTO (Sputnik)
• Tanker reports explosions while transiting Strait of Hormuz, crew safe (Arab News)
• UKMTO says explosion near tanker off Oman reported (Middle East Eye)
• Hormuz Maritime Traffic Collapses (Iranwire)
• Trump vows to find 'leakers' after reports of depleted Iran war munitions (Al Jazeera)
• Trump rails against 'treasonous leakers' who spotlighted US military's munitions problem (Washington Examiner)
• Top Hegseth adviser escorted from Pentagon and under investigation over DOD leaks (Washington Examiner)
• Two Hegseth aides put on leave from Pentagon amid leak probe (AOL)
• QatarEnergy LNG force majeure extends into mid-August (Riviera)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure Into August (OilPrice)
• Force majeure on QatarEnergy LNG extends to fourth month (AGBI)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to Mid-August 2026 (energynews.pro)
• QatarEnergy declares force majeure after Iran strikes on Ras Laffan facility (Fox Business)
• Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal (Washington Post)
• Iraq to sign extension of pipeline deal with Turkey (The National)
• Basra Oil Set for Export via Kurdistan Region Pipeline to Türkiye's Ceyhan Port (Kurdistan24)
• Iraq to Increase Oil Exports from Basra via Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline to 140,000 bpd (IndexBox)
• Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations (Al Jazeera)
• UNSC adopts Bahrain-led resolution condemning Iran attacks (Iran International)
• Hormuz Shipping War Risk Insurance: Crisis, Costs & Recovery 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• AWRP - War Risk Premiums Surge - Hormuz War Risk Insurance (Marine News Network)
• Shipping insurance surges again as attacks intensify (The National)
• Iran War 2026 -- Day 159 Update -- 05 August 2026 (GlobalSecurity)
• Iran War Casualties 2026 (militaryspend.org)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve Levels (OilPriceAPI)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 307.7M bbl July 24 2026 (Vault Report)
• DOE has released 17.5 million barrels from SPR since March (EIA)
• Korea mulling timing of oil release with possible supply crisis in August (Korea Times)
• The Hormuz Buffer: Asian Oil Security Amid Prolonged Middle East Conflict (Asia Media Centre)
• Rubio says Strait of Hormuz talks making progress (RSBN)
• Bessent says U.S., Iran could reach a deal on Strait of Hormuz within a day or two (Washington Times)
• Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei: Oman Deal Won't Reopen Hormuz (Iranwire)
• Iran, Oman say Strait of Hormuz talks in final stages (Mehr News)