Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-07 · Cycle 1 (C256)

War Day: 161 | Blockade Day: 25 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-7 mid-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🟢🟢🟢🔴 IRAN-OMAN JOINT-STATEMENT REMAINS IN "FINAL STAGES" — SECOND-DAY SLIPPAGE + TRUMP AL JAZEERA "WAR CAN'T GO MUCH LONGER; HORMUZ DEAL CLOSE" AUG-7-C256 — Al Jazeera live-blog Aug-7: Trump publicly states "the war on Iran will conclude 'pretty soon'" and "does not believe [Iran] can go much longer"; deal-window rolls further from Wed→Thu→Fri without formal announcement | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP LEAKER-HUNT ESCALATES-C256 per Al Jazeera + AOL + The Hill + CNN Politics Aug-6/7 — Trump Truth Social Thu-morning: "The 'leakers' of these treasonous statements are being hunted down"; DOJ tasked with finding "treasonous" individuals; Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell issues formal denial: "Secretary Hegseth did not mislead anyone about our munitions posture" + "claims about depleted stockpiles, internal disagreements, the Secretary's position on Iran… are equally fictional"; Trump says "extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing" per Hill; damage-control-phase confirms munitions-shortage narrative-toxicity at White House-tier | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 PEZESHKIAN AUG-5-IRIB SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU-WITH-US NEW-DETAIL-C256 per Iranwire — Pezeshkian televised interview Aug-5 (2nd-anniversary-in-office): "Currently, reaching Mojtaba Khamenei is very difficult, but his presence gives us reassurance"; crucial-new-detail-C256: Pezeshkian discloses Supreme Leader stipulated he would accept any proposal approved by three-quarters-majority of SNSC members, AND 12 of 13 SNSC members voted to approve a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States; this MATERIALIZES C255's Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-communication-friction into concrete-vote-outcome; the MoU-with-US IS DE-FACTO-APPROVED at SNSC-level pending Mojtaba-signature/veto | 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CENTCOM 48 VESSELS REDIRECTED UPDATE-C256 per RSBN + OANN + IranWire Aug-5 — Update from C255's "44 redirected + 2 disabled + 2 boarded"; +4 vessels in ~48h window Aug-5/6/7; blockade-tempo accelerating; also 2 disabled + 2 boarded CARRIES; operational-tightening at CENTCOM-tier while diplomatic-track proceeds | 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN-DEMANDS-END-BLOCKADE FRAMED AS "TOTAL SURRENDER" ALTERNATIVE PER TRUMP AUG-3 CARRIES-INTO-C256 — per Just The News/CENTCOM: Trump Aug-3 asserted "no vessel bound for Iran will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without prior U.S. approval" until "deal or total surrender by Tehran"; this HARDENS Iran's 4-commitment (end-blockade + sanctions + assets + Lebanon) against Trump's inverse ultimatum-frame | 🟢🔴 BRENT $83.34 AUG-6-CLOSE PER tradingeconomics +4.90% ONE-DAY-BOUNCE vs C255 SUB-$80-BREACH — data-contradiction-C256: tradingeconomics Aug-6-close $83.34 UP 4.9% from Aug-5, contra C255's sustained-sub-$80 reading; RECONCILIATION: C255 captured Aug-6-intraday sub-$80 fluctuation on early deal-optimism; late-day-Aug-6 close bounced back to $83.34 as Trump-Hegseth-clash and deal-slippage sank in; C253→C254→C255→C256 volatility-band $75-$88 confirms lack-of-price-conviction; no Aug-7-close data available yet at write-time; Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY KINETIC EXECUTION AUG-5 CARRIES-INTO-C256; no fresh Houthi kinetic Aug-6/7 window; Yanbu-northern-Red-Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb expansion CARRIES; Saudi retaliation-not-yet-materialized | 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL CARRIES; Israeli-coalition-nuclear-tier CONSOLIDATED CARRIES; no fresh Netanyahu Aug-7 statement C256 | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT MFA / BAHRAIN UNSC HISTORICAL-CARRIES; NO fresh C256 formal-vote or Kuwait target | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES | 🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 29th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-7 statement | 🔴 IRAQ KPLER 30M/MONTH ~1 MB/D CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey 1-year pipeline deal Aug-1 CARRIES + 750K bpd capacity confirmed per National | 🔴 SPR 304.81M mb DRAW-RESUMED CARRIES from C254; no fresh EIA print T+~16h | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 QATAR RAS LAFFAN 17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-OFFLINE CARRIES; QatarEnergy force-majeure extends into mid-August per Riviera+OilPrice Aug-6 | Cycle: C256 (Fri-Aug-7 mid-CEST ~13:00 / Fri-early-ET ~07:00, ~17h delta from C255 Thu-late-CEST ~20:00)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP timeout on Grok_outputs folder lookup (MCP-32001 timeout); TWENTY-NINTH consecutive cycle: C228→C256. Full 13-topic web sweep executed on: Iran-Oman-joint-statement-Aug-7 + Trump-Iran-Hormuz-Fri-Aug-7 + Brent-WTI-Aug-6-close + Aug-7-intraday + Houthi-Red-Sea-Wafa-Daisy-post-Aug-5 + UKMTO-Gulf-Aden-Aug-6-7 + Trump-Hegseth-leaker-hunt-Pentagon-denial + Pezeshkian-Mojtaba-SNSC-MoU-vote + CENTCOM-48-vessels-blockade + Iraq-Basra-Kirkuk-Ceyhan-pipeline + Qatar-Ras-Laffan-force-majeure + Bahrain-Kuwait-UNSC + IAEA-Grossi + Bushehr-Natanz-nuclear + Japan-Korea-India-SPR + Netanyahu-uranium-Aug-7 + P&I-Lloyd's-VLCC-premium + shadow-fleet-Iran-Aug + Israel-strike-Iran-Aug-7.

Baseline: C255 / 2026-08-06 Thu-late-CEST (DEAL-FRAMING-CORRECTED-TO-INTERIM-NOT-REOPENING + IRAN-4-COMMITMENT-US-CONDITIONS-FORMALIZED + TRUMP-HEGSETH-CAMP-DAVID-MUNITIONS-CLASH-REVEALED + HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-WAFA-DAISY + BRENT-SUB-$80-BREACH-INTRADAY + PEZESHKIAN-MOJTABA-COMMUNICATION-FRICTION-EXPOSED + QATAR-17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-OFFLINE + BESSENT-FREEDOM-OF-MOVEMENT-CABINET-TIER + ROUTE-MECHANICS-PUBLISHED-TWO-LANE-FEE-SPLIT + BAGHAEI-THIRD-PARTY-OBSTRUCTION-WARNING + CENTCOM-45-REDIRECTED + IRAN-OMAN-COORDINATES-AGREED).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-07 C256 Fri-mid-CEST ~13:00 / Fri-early-ET ~07:00, ~17h delta from C255 Thu-late-CEST): C256 is a SECOND-DAY-SLIPPAGE + TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-ESCALATION + PENTAGON-FORMAL-DENIAL + PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU + CENTCOM-48-VESSELS-UPDATE + BRENT-DAY-BOUNCE-CORRECTION cycle at T+~17h from C255. The Fri-Aug-7 formal deal-announcement remains unrealized at write-time; the deal-window rolls into Fri-late-ET/Sat. Six substantive-deltas vs C255: (a) TRUMP AL JAZEERA "WAR CAN'T GO MUCH LONGER; HORMUZ DEAL CLOSE" NEW-C256 — Per Al Jazeera live-blog Aug-7: Trump publicly states the war on Iran will conclude "pretty soon"; when questioned on high energy prices Trump said he does not believe [Iran] "can go much longer"; Trump reiterated "a lot of progress had been made" on Hormuz-reopening and "suggested an announcement could be made soon." Second-day formal-announcement slippage confirmed (Wed→Thu→Fri without materialized announcement). Trump-rhetorical-frame shifts from "48 hours" (C253/C254) → "tomorrow or the next day" (C255) → "pretty soon / much longer" (C256) — softening-cadence signals actual timeline may be Sat-Sun-Mon Aug 8-10. (b) TRUMP LEAKER-HUNT ESCALATES + PENTAGON FORMAL DENIAL NEW-C256 — Trump Truth Social Thu-morning post: "The 'leakers' of these treasonous statements are being hunted down"; DOJ tasked per AOL + The Hill. Trump also stated he is "extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing" per Hill — political-cover for Hegseth. Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell issues formal denial: "Secretary Hegseth did not mislead anyone about our munitions posture" + "claims about depleted stockpiles, internal disagreements, the Secretary's position on Iran… are equally fictional." Damage-control-phase indicates munitions-shortage narrative is White-House-toxic; the mere denial confirms constraint-materiality (denial-loop pattern). Lock-8 (Capability) CARRIES + REINFORCED-C256 by escalating-denial-toxicity. (c) PEZESHKIAN AUG-5-IRIB SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU-WITH-US NEW-DETAIL-C256 — Per Iranwire Aug-5 coverage of Pezeshkian's 2nd-anniversary-in-office IRIB News Channel interview: (i) "Currently, reaching Mojtaba Khamenei is very difficult, but his presence gives us reassurance" (source-of-C255 disclosure now-attributed); (ii) NEW-DETAIL-C256: Pezeshkian discloses Mojtaba stipulated he would accept any proposal approved by three-quarters-majority (10-of-13) of SNSC members; (iii) NEW-DETAIL-C256: 12 of 13 SNSC members voted to approve a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States. This is a material deal-content revelation: an MoU with the US IS DE-FACTO-APPROVED at SNSC-level (exceeds 10/13 threshold); pending Mojtaba-sign-off is procedural not substantive. Deal-content-space is thus WIDER than C255's Baghaei-Gharibabadi-conditional-messaging suggested — SNSC has ALREADY approved a broader US-Iran MoU that presumably-includes Hormuz-transit-arrangements. This transforms the Aug-6/7 formal-announcement-slippage question from "will Iran agree?" to "will Mojtaba sign what SNSC approved?" Lock-5 (Duration) TIGHTENS-FAVORABLY-C256 on SNSC-vote-disclosure. (d) CENTCOM 48 VESSELS REDIRECTED UPDATE-C256 per RSBN + OANN + IranWire Aug-5 — Update from C254/C255 "44 redirected + 2 disabled + 2 boarded" → 48 vessels redirected + 2 disabled + 2 boarded per Aug-5 CENTCOM statement; +4 vessels in ~48h window. Blockade-tempo accelerating even as diplomatic-track proceeds — operational-tightening at CENTCOM-tier is INDEPENDENT of Iran-Oman-deal-track. This reinforces C255 read: Bessent Cabinet-tier "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" is being OPERATIONALIZED via blockade-enforcement while deal-content is negotiated. Lock-3 (Insurance) VOLATILE-CARRIES; Lock-7 (Geographic) TIGHTENS-VIA-BLOCKADE-C256. (e) BRENT $83.34 AUG-6-CLOSE +4.90% ONE-DAY BOUNCE per tradingeconomics — C255 SUB-$80-BREACH RECONCILED AS INTRADAY-ONLY — Data-contradiction-C256: tradingeconomics Aug-6-close $83.34 UP 4.9% from Aug-5, contra C255's "sub-$80 breach sustained" reading. RECONCILIATION: C255 captured intraday sub-$80 fluctuation on early Aug-6 deal-optimism (Bloomberg/oilprice.com); late-day Aug-6 bounced back to $83.34 as Trump-Hegseth-clash-revelation + no-formal-announcement + Netanyahu-CBS-uranium reprised the risk-premium. C254 "flat-24h" narrative was actually CORRECT at close-tick even though intraday moved sub-$80. WTI $75.22 close per LiteFinance CARRIES. C253→C254→C255→C256 volatility-band $75-$88 confirms lack-of-price-conviction. No Aug-7-close data available at C256-write T+~17h. Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-BOUNCING-C256; sustained sub-$80 close would be de-escalation-signal but hasn't materialized. (f) NO FORMAL FRI-AUG-7 US ANNOUNCEMENT AT C256-WRITE T+~17h — Third day of formal-announcement slippage (Wed → Thu → Fri). Trump softens rhetorical cadence to "pretty soon" and "much longer" (Al Jazeera live-blog Aug-7). Trump-Hegseth-leaker-hunt occupies White House attention Fri-morning-ET. Iran-Oman joint-statement remains in "final stages" per Baghaei (via Global Security IRNA + Marine Log + Euronews + Bloomberg Aug-5 CARRIES-INTO-C256). Deal-content-substantive question is now whether Mojtaba signs the SNSC-12-of-13-approved MoU. Slippage does NOT signal deal-collapse; SNSC-vote-disclosure REDUCES collapse-risk C256. All C255 CARRIES apply where not superseded: Iran-Oman coordinates agreed CARRIES; joint-statement "final drafting" CARRIES; route-mechanics two-lane + fee-split CARRIES; Iran 4-commitment US-conditions CARRIES; Netanyahu-CBS uranium-removal endorsement CARRIES + CONSOLIDATED; Katz-Bluth personal-friction CARRIES; Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 kinetic-execution CARRIES (no fresh Aug-6/7 Houthi kinetic in ~17h window); EIA Aug-5 SPR-draw-2.841M CARRIES; Iraq-Turkey 1-year pipeline deal Aug-1 CARRIES + 750K bpd capacity confirmed per National; Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES; Baghaei "warns of third party obstruction" CARRIES; CENTCOM 48-redirected + 2-disabled + 2-boarded updated-C256; Qatari drafts "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1% (4× pre-war) + P&I 60× normal weekly CARRIES; IRGC-media denial CARRIES; Rezaei state-TV counter CARRIES; Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant CARRIES; Trump-last-chance-decapitation CARRIES but BOUNDED-by-munitions-constraint; IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat CARRIES; IRGC MQ-9-Reaper-shootdown Aug-3 CARRIES (no Pentagon-response 6+ cycles); CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug per Reuters CARRIES; OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd CARRIES; Iraq Basra Aug 2.93 mb/d planned CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE; Iraq Kpler ~1 mb/d actual Jul-4-to-Aug-4 CARRIES; Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; Kuwait MFA + Bahrain UNSC HISTORICAL CARRIES; US State Dept mass-departure CARRIES; Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target-list CARRIES + REINFORCED-C255-via-Wafa-Daisy + Trump-Hegseth-clash + Israeli-nuclear-consolidation CARRIES; QatarEnergy 33 US-LNG-hedge CARRIES; Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-years-offline CARRIES; QatarEnergy force-majeure extends into mid-August per Riviera + OilPrice CARRIES-INTO-C256. No formal US Fri-Aug-7-morning announcement observed at C256-write T+~17h; deal-window rolls further into Fri-late-ET/Sat-Aug-8. No fresh C256 tanker attack in HORMUZ-proper (~17h window Aug-6 late→Aug-7 mid CEST); no fresh Houthi kinetic Aug-6/7. No fresh Kuwait target; no fresh nuclear-facility strike; no fresh Bahrain UNSC vote; Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response CARRIES pending 9+ cycles but now-CONTEXTUALIZED-C256 by Pezeshkian SNSC-12-of-13-vote-disclosure — Mojtaba silence may be procedural-sign-off-pending rather than substantive-veto. C255 → C256 KEY DELTAS: (1) TRUMP AL JAZEERA "WAR CAN'T GO MUCH LONGER; HORMUZ DEAL CLOSE" — Rhetorical cadence softens; second-day formal-announcement slippage. (2) TRUMP LEAKER-HUNT ESCALATES + PENTAGON PARNELL FORMAL DENIAL — Damage-control phase; munitions-shortage narrative-toxicity confirmed. (3) PEZESHKIAN AUG-5-IRIB SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU-WITH-US NEW-DETAIL — Deal-content de-facto-approved at SNSC-level; pending Mojtaba sign-off is procedural not substantive. (4) CENTCOM 48 VESSELS UPDATE (+4 vs C255) — Blockade-tempo accelerating independent of deal-track. (5) BRENT $83.34 AUG-6-CLOSE +4.9% RECONCILES C255 SUB-$80 AS INTRADAY-ONLY — Volatility-band $75-$88; Aug-7 close pending. (6) NO FORMAL FRI-AUG-7 US ANNOUNCEMENT AT T+~17h — Third-day slippage; deal-window rolls into Fri-late-ET/Sat. (7) QATARENERGY force-majeure extends into mid-August per Riviera + OilPrice — CARRIES + REFRESHED-C256. (8) Iraq-Turkey pipeline 750K bpd capacity confirmed per National — CARRIES + REFRESHED-C256. Structural locks (C255 → C256): Lock-1 (Price) VOLATILE-BOUNCING-C256 — Brent Aug-6-close $83.34 +4.9% reconciles C255 sub-$80 as intraday-only; WTI $75.22 close CARRIES; volatility-band $75-$88; Lock-2 (Supply) EASES-CARRIES + SPR-DRAW-CARRIES — OPEC+ Sep-hike + CPC 1.66 mb/d + Iraq 1 mb/d Kpler + Iraq-Turkey 1-year 750K bpd + EIA-SPR-draw-2.841M-CARRIES; Lock-3 (Insurance) LLOYD'S-CHUBB-CARRIES + BLOCKADE-TEMPO-C256 — consortium $400M CARRIES; hull-war 0.2%→1% (4× pre-war, +$800K/VLCC-voyage); P&I 60× normal weekly (equiv-withdrawal); Lloyd's writes 70-80% of world's marine-war-risk; CENTCOM-48-vessels-updated adds blockade-friction; Lock-4 (Labor) HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES; Lock-5 (Duration) TIGHTENS-FAVORABLY-C256 via SNSC-12-of-13-MoU-VOTE-DISCLOSURE — 12/13 SNSC-vote exceeds 10/13 threshold Mojtaba stipulated; deal-content de-facto-approved pending sign-off; formal-announcement-slippage does NOT signal collapse; Lock-6 (Nuclear) CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + IAEA-29TH-CYCLE-NO-STAFF — Netanyahu-CBS-Katz-uranium-endorsement CARRIES; Rubio "denuclearization ultimate deal" CARRIES; Lock-7 (Geographic) HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-CARRIES + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE-TEMPO-C256; Lock-8 (Capability) TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-ESCALATES-PENTAGON-DENIAL-C256 — damage-control-phase confirms munitions-shortage narrative-toxicity; constraint-materiality reinforced; Lock-9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint) HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-CARRIES; Lock-10 (Leadership) PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-DISCLOSED-C256 + ISRAELI-FIVE-TIER-CARRIES — Iranian internal split now-QUANTIFIED (Pezeshkian-side got 12/13 SNSC approval; Mojtaba-side procedural-hold); Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) QATAR-17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-CARRIES + FORCE-MAJEURE-EXTENDED-INTO-MID-AUGUST-C256. Critical 0-8h Fri-Aug-7-close + 0-16h Sat-Aug-8-open + 0-24h Sat-Aug-8 + 0-48h Sun-Aug-9: (a) Whether Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publishes Fri-late-ET/Sat/Sun; (b) Whether US formal announcement of Iran-Oman-arrangement materializes; (c) Whether Mojtaba signs SNSC-approved MoU or vetoes; (d) Whether Trump modulates leaker-hunt on Sat/Sun; (e) Whether Iran-formal-tier (Araghchi or Pezeshkian) publicly-addresses SNSC-12-of-13-disclosure implications; (f) Whether Brent Fri close holds $83-88 range or breaks sub-$80 or above $88; (g) Whether next EIA weekly (T+5 days) shows continued SPR-draw; (h) Whether Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-appointment triggers open-break; (i) Whether Saudi retaliates for Wafa/Daisy strikes with Yemen kinetic; (j) Whether Houthi Aug-7/8 kinetic resumes; (k) Whether Iran-tanker-kinetic activity resumes in Aug-7→8 window (STRAIT-PROPER); (l) Whether Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response ARRIVES (9-cycle pending, now-contextualized-by-SNSC-12-of-13-disclosure); (m) Whether IAEA Grossi Aug-7/8 statement materializes; (n) Whether Bahrain UNSC produces fresh Iran-condemnation vote; (o) Whether Pentagon-Parnell-denial escalates internal leaker-hunt; (p) Whether Israeli "round 2" strike-plan advances despite deal-track; (q) Whether Rezaei-hardliner escalates or defers; (r) Whether Baghaei publicly names US as "third party obstructor" if deal collapses.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C255 → C256 DELTAS)

• 🟢🔴 TRUMP AL JAZEERA AUG-7: "WAR CAN'T GO MUCH LONGER; HORMUZ DEAL CLOSE" NEW-C256 — Rhetorical cadence softens (48h → "tomorrow or next day" → "pretty soon"); third-day formal-announcement slippage; deal-window rolls further.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP LEAKER-HUNT ESCALATES + PENTAGON PARNELL FORMAL DENIAL NEW-C256 — Trump Truth Social Thu: "leakers being hunted down"; DOJ tasked; Parnell denies Hegseth misled anyone; Trump "extremely happy" with Hegseth per Hill; damage-control-phase = munitions-narrative-toxicity confirmed.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 PEZESHKIAN AUG-5-IRIB SNSC 12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU-WITH-US NEW-DETAIL-C256 per Iranwire — Mojtaba stipulated 10-of-13 threshold; 12/13 voted approval; deal-content de-facto-approved at SNSC-level; pending Mojtaba sign-off procedural not substantive; Lock-5 (Duration) TIGHTENS-FAVORABLY.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CENTCOM 48 VESSELS REDIRECTED UPDATE-C256 (+4 vs C255) — Blockade-tempo accelerating independent of deal-track; 2 disabled + 2 boarded CARRIES; Bessent freedom-of-movement operationalized.

• 🟢🔴 BRENT $83.34 AUG-6-CLOSE +4.9% RECONCILES C255 SUB-$80 AS INTRADAY-ONLY — Volatility-band $75-$88 confirms lack-of-price-conviction; Aug-7 close pending; WTI $75.22 close CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴 NO FORMAL FRI-AUG-7 US ANNOUNCEMENT AT T+~17h — Third-day slippage; deal-window rolls into Fri-late-ET/Sat-Aug-8.

• 🟢🔴 QATARENERGY FORCE-MAJEURE EXTENDS INTO MID-AUGUST per Riviera + OilPrice — C255 17%-up-to-5-years CARRIES + REFRESHED; Oct-target for 83% remaining CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 IRAQ-TURKEY PIPELINE 750K BPD CAPACITY CONFIRMED per National — C255 1-year-deal CARRIES + REFRESHED; Basra→Kirkuk→Ceyhan flowing 140K bpd via truck+pipeline hybrid.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 IRAN-OMAN JOINT-STATEMENT IN "FINAL STAGES" CARRIES — Baghaei via Global Security IRNA + Marine Log + Euronews CARRIES-INTO-C256.

• 🟢🟢🟢 IRAN-OMAN ROUTE MECHANICS (TWO-LANE + FEE-SPLIT) CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN 4-COMMITMENT US-CONDITIONS CARRIES — Gharibabadi list CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BESSENT "FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT WITHOUT IRANIAN TOLLS" CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 BAGHAEI "WARNS OF THIRD PARTY OBSTRUCTION" CARRIES — Iran implicitly targets US.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 HOUTHI WAFA + DAISY KINETIC EXECUTION AUG-5 CARRIES; no fresh Aug-6/7 Houthi kinetic in ~17h window.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU CBS URANIUM-REMOVAL CARRIES + CONSOLIDATED; no fresh Netanyahu Aug-7 statement.

• 🔴🔴🔴 NETANYAHU-KATZ BLUTH PERSONAL-FRICTION CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 REZAEI + IRGC MEDIA-DENIAL CARRIES; no fresh C256 IRGC-Aerospace print.

• 🔴🔴🔴 US MUNITIONS "DANGEROUSLY LOW" CARRIES + DAMAGE-CONTROL-PHASE-C256.

• 🔴🔴🔴 TRUMP CONDITIONAL BRIDGE/POWER-PLANT + DECAPITATION-FRAME CARRIES — Bounded-by-munitions-constraint.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRGC MQ-9 REAPER SHOOTDOWN AUG-3 CARRIES — No Pentagon-response 6+ cycles.

• 🔴 IRAQ KPLER ~1 MB/D CARRIES.

• 🟢🟡 CPC 1.66 MB/D AUG CARRIES per Reuters.

• 🟢🟡 IRAQ BASRA AUG 2.93 MB/D PLANNED CARRIES SINGLE-SOURCE.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES; no fresh Kuwait target C256.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN RETALIATION-PLAN 5-GULF-STATE CARRIES + REINFORCED via Wafa/Daisy + Trump-Hegseth-clash + Israeli-nuclear-consolidation.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC RES 2817 HISTORICAL-CARRIES; NO fresh C256 formal-vote.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES 29th CYCLE; no fresh Grossi Aug-7 statement.

• 🔴 STRAIT PARTIALLY-CLOSED but CENTCOM SOUTHERN-ROUTE FREE-AND-OPEN + IRAQ-KPLER 1 MB/D FLOW CARRIES.

• 🔴 NO FRESH TANKER ATTACK IN HORMUZ-PROPER C256 (~17h window Aug-6 late→Aug-7 mid-CEST).

• 🔴 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI FORMAL-RESPONSE PENDING C256 — 9+ cycles pending; NOW-CONTEXTUALIZED by SNSC-12-of-13-vote-disclosure — silence may be procedural-sign-off-pending rather than substantive-veto.

• 🔴 SPR 304.81M mb DRAW-RESUMED CARRIES; no fresh EIA print T+~17h.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 161 / Ceasefire STATUS: IRAN-OMAN-JOINT-STATEMENT-IN-FINAL-STAGES-SECOND-DAY-SLIPPAGE-C256 + TRUMP-AL-JAZEERA-"WAR-CANT-GO-MUCH-LONGER"-C256 + TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-ESCALATES-PENTAGON-DENIAL-C256 + PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTED-MoU-C256 + CENTCOM-48-VESSELS-UPDATE-C256 + BRENT-$83.34-BOUNCE-RECONCILES-C255-C256 + QATARENERGY-FORCE-MAJEURE-EXTENDED-MID-AUGUST-C256 + IRAQ-TURKEY-750K-BPD-CONFIRMED-C256 + PROVENANCE-FROM-C255-CARRIES. C256 confirms: (a) Third-day formal-announcement slippage — Iran-Oman joint-statement remains "final stages" per Baghaei; (b) Trump softens rhetorical cadence to "pretty soon" / "much longer" per Al Jazeera live-blog; (c) Trump leaker-hunt escalates with DOJ tasked + Pentagon Parnell formal denial; (d) Pezeshkian discloses SNSC 12-of-13 voted MoU with US per Iranwire — Mojtaba's 10/13 threshold exceeded; deal-content de-facto-approved; (e) CENTCOM update to 48 vessels redirected — +4 in ~48h; blockade-tempo accelerating; (f) Brent $83.34 Aug-6-close +4.9% bounce reconciles C255 sub-$80 breach as intraday-only; (g) QatarEnergy force-majeure extends into mid-August per Riviera + OilPrice CARRIES + REFRESHED; (h) Iraq-Turkey pipeline 750K bpd capacity confirmed per National; (i) No fresh Houthi kinetic Aug-6/7 in ~17h window; (j) No fresh tanker attack in Hormuz-proper; (k) All C255 substantive frameworks CARRIES; (l) No fresh Kuwait target, nuclear-facility strike, Bahrain UNSC vote, IAEA Grossi. War cost $37.5B CARRIES. C255 → C256 (~17h delta Thu-late-CEST → Fri-mid-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C256 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — SNSC 12-of-13 MoU-vote DISCLOSED-C256; Trump-leaker-hunt Pentagon-denial damage-control-phase-C256; formal-announcement-third-day-slippage; deal-content de-facto-approved pending Mojtaba sign-off
• 🟢🔴 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — Netanyahu-CBS uranium CARRIES + Katz-Bluth-friction CARRIES; Trump-Hegseth-clash + munitions-shortage-narrative-toxicity reduces US appetite for additional strikes
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Oman mediator-leg — Joint-statement in "final stages" CARRIES; Baghaei-third-party-warning CARRIES; route-mechanics published CARRIES
• 🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Qatar mediator-leg — Qatari "very progressive stages" CARRIES; Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-years CARRIES + force-majeure-extended-mid-August
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — Katz-uranium + Netanyahu-CBS-endorsement CARRIES; Ras Laffan "burned to ashes" rhetoric CARRIES
• 🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — Israeli-coalition-CONSOLIDATED CARRIES; IAEA-no-staff CARRIES 29th cycle
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Houthi-third-chokepoint — Wafa/Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES + no fresh Aug-6/7 kinetic in ~17h window; Bab-el-Mandeb-Saudi-blockade CARRIES

• 🟢🔴 NEW Trump Al Jazeera Aug-7: "war can't go much longer; Hormuz deal close"
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 NEW Trump Truth Social Thu: "leakers being hunted down"; DOJ tasked; Pentagon Parnell formal denial
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 NEW Pezeshkian IRIB Aug-5 (surfaced-C256 via Iranwire): SNSC 12/13 voted MoU-with-US; Mojtaba stipulated 10/13 threshold
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 UPDATE CENTCOM 48 vessels redirected (+4 vs C254/C255 45)
• 🟢🔴 RECONCILIATION Brent $83.34 Aug-6-close +4.9%; C255 sub-$80 was intraday-only; volatility-band $75-$88
• 🔴🔴 CARRIES-NEGATIVE No formal US Fri-Aug-7-morning announcement (third-day slippage)
• 🟢🔴 CARRIES + REFRESHED QatarEnergy force-majeure extends into mid-August per Riviera + OilPrice
• 🟢🟡 CARRIES + REFRESHED Iraq-Turkey 1-year pipeline 750K bpd capacity confirmed per National
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Iran-Oman coordinates agreed + joint-statement "final stages"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 CARRIES Route mechanics two-lane + fee-split
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran 4-commitment US-conditions (Gharibabadi list)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC media-tier denial + Rezaei hardliner two-phase-Trump-counter (state-TV)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + REINFORCED Netanyahu CBS 60 Minutes uranium-removal endorsement of Katz-precondition
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-appointment personal-friction
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + DAMAGE-CONTROL US munitions "dangerously low" (Trump-Hegseth-Camp-David-clash + Parnell-denial + Trump-leaker-hunt)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Trump-conditional-bridge/power-plant + Trump-decapitation-frame (bounded by munitions-constraint)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC MQ-9 Reaper shootdown Aug-3 (no Pentagon-response 6+ cycles)
• 🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES IRGC-Mousavi counter-threat command-tier
• 🟢 CARRIES CPC 1.66 mb/d Aug expected per Reuters
• 🟢 CARRIES OPEC+ Sep-hike +188K bpd ratified
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 + MFA-UNSC-2817-invocation
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure guidance
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES + REINFORCED-C255 Iran retaliation-plan 5-Gulf-state + Israel-energy-target
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff in Iran + satellite-only (29th cycle)
• 🟢 CARRIES Al Areesh delivery + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS
• 🟢🔴 CARRIES + REFRESHED Qatar Ras Laffan force-majeure extended into mid-August
• 🔴 No fresh tanker attack IN HORMUZ-PROPER C256 (~17h window)
• 🔴 No fresh Houthi kinetic Aug-6/7 in ~17h window
• 🔴 NO fresh Bahrain UNSC formal Fri-morning vote C256
• 🔴 Mojtaba-Khamenei formal-response PENDING C256 (9+ cycles) — NOW-CONTEXTUALIZED by SNSC-12-of-13 disclosure

• All casualty figures CARRY unchanged from C255 (no fresh casualty-tier data ~17h window)
• Total war deaths: 8,976–18,310+ per militaryspend.org CARRIES
• Iran civilian dead: 3,468 Wikipedia / 3,636 HRANA / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M-3.2M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,219+ killed since March 2; 1.2M+ displaced (CARRIES)
• Cumulative US MQ-9 loss $ tally per Bloomberg: ~$1B / 24+ airframes ~20% pre-war inventory CARRIES

Net ceasefire trajectory C256: DEAL-CONTENT-APPROVAL at SNSC-tier is the largest single-cycle positive-signal since Iran-Oman-coordinates-agreement (C254). If Mojtaba signs and joint-statement publishes in 0-72h window, this resolves as C255-transition-to-implementation. If Mojtaba vetoes SNSC-approval OR joint-statement stalls beyond 72h with no explanation, this indicates the "3rd party obstruction" (US-side or Israeli-side) is materializing. Base-case: partial-formal-announcement Sat-Sun Aug 8-9 with joint-statement release delayed 3-5 days. Downside-tail: 25% probability Mojtaba-veto or US-Israel-side pre-emptive strike triggered by munitions-narrative or Bluth-appointment-crisis.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (APPEND-ONLY)

Running total: 92+ vessels since Mar-2 (aggregate CARRIES from prior cycles); 8+ Saudi vessels since Jul-20 Houthi blockade; C256 window (~17h) fresh: NONE in Hormuz-proper; NONE fresh Houthi Aug-6/7 in ~17h window (Wafa+Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES).

IRGC friendly-fire watch: No fresh IRGC-Aerospace-Mousavi print C256; CARRIES from C254/C255.

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts (CARRIES from C255):

• Goldman: $85-95 Q3 range CARRIES
• JPM: "$95 midpoint if deal materializes; $110-125 if collapse" CARRIES
• EIA STEO Aug: $88.9 forecast per tradingeconomics search-result-C256 (SINGLE-SOURCE, verify)
• Bloomberg/oilprice.com: "market pricing 60% probability of interim deal" CARRIES

• 🟢 Trump Al Jazeera Aug-7: "war can't go much longer; Hormuz deal close" — DE-ESCALATION-SIGNAL
• 🔴 Trump Truth Social Thu: "leakers being hunted down" + Parnell-denial = damage-control-narrative-noise
• 🟡 Bessent "freedom of movement without Iranian tolls" CARRIES — fees-fault-line

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status

Country reserves matrix

Announcement-vs-physical-delivery gap CARRIES from prior cycles: IEA-400M-announced Mar-11; ~17.5M actually delivered by end-April; running-total ~7-fold-lag persists CARRIES.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

• Pre-war Hormuz volume: ~20 mb/d crude + LNG
• Current bypass total (adjusted): ~7-8 mb/d realistic (E-W 4.5 + ADCOP 1.4 + Iraq-Turkey 0.14-0.75 + Oman 0.4 + Cape rerouting ~1-2)
• GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable — structural shortfall no amount of rerouting can close
• Iraq-Turkey 750K bpd capacity confirmation ADDS ~0.5-0.6 mb/d over C255 assumption if fully-utilized (currently only 140K bpd via truck-hybrid startup)

7. Maritime Insurance

Cost per VLCC voyage: Pre-war $250-300K → Current $800K-$2M per voyage (hull-war 1% of $100-120M hull value = $1M-$1.2M; add crew-hazard + war-clauses = up to $2M).

8. Shadow Fleet

C256 fresh signals: NONE in ~17h window.

Cumulative CARRIES:

• Shadow fleet size: 1,400+ vessels (~25% of global tanker fleet) CARRIES
• No new C256 seizures, sanctions designations, or enforcement actions
• GRU/Wagner militarization CARRIES
• Arctic Metagaz-type incident risk CARRIES
• Iran shadow-fleet friendly-fire CARRIES (no fresh)

9. Country Response Matrix

Belligerents (C256 deltas only):

10. Policy Actions (Cycle-specific — C256 only)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Trump Al Jazeera "war can't go much longer; Hormuz deal close" — rhetorical cadence softens (48h → "tomorrow or next day" → "pretty soon" / "much longer"); third-day formal-announcement slippage.
2. Trump leaker-hunt escalates + Pentagon Parnell formal denial — Truth Social Thu post + DOJ tasked + Parnell denial + Trump "extremely happy with Hegseth"; damage-control phase confirms munitions-narrative toxicity at White House-tier.
3. Pezeshkian IRIB Aug-5 disclosed SNSC 12-of-13 voted MoU with US (surfaced-C256 via Iranwire) — Mojtaba's stipulated 10/13 threshold exceeded; deal-content de-facto-approved pending Mojtaba sign-off which is procedural not substantive.
4. CENTCOM 48 vessels redirected update (+4 vs C254/C255 45) — blockade-tempo accelerating even as diplomatic-track proceeds.
5. Brent $83.34 Aug-6-close +4.9% one-day bounce per tradingeconomics — reconciles C255 sub-$80-breach as intraday-only; volatility-band $75-$88 confirms lack-of-price-conviction.
6. QatarEnergy force-majeure extended into mid-August per Riviera + OilPrice — CARRIES + REFRESHED; 17%-up-to-5-years-offline CARRIES.
7. Iraq-Turkey pipeline 750K bpd capacity confirmed per National — CARRIES + REFRESHED; currently only 140K bpd flowing via truck-hybrid.
8. No formal Fri-Aug-7-morning US announcement at T+~17h — third-day slippage; deal-window rolls into Fri-late-ET/Sat-Aug-8.

(b) Structural Locks Status (C256)

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟡 VOLATILE-BOUNCING-C256 — Brent Aug-6-close $83.34 +4.9% reconciles C255 sub-$80 as intraday-only; volatility-band $75-$88; no sustained sub-$80 close (would be de-escalation-signal); WTI $75.22 close CARRIES. HOLDING.
• Lock 2 (Supply): 🟢 EASING-CARRIES — OPEC+ Sep-hike + CPC 1.66 mb/d + Iraq-Turkey pipeline 750K bpd capacity + Iraq Kpler ~1 mb/d + EIA-SPR-draw-2.841M. LOOSENING.
• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴 HOLDING-CARRIES + BLOCKADE-TEMPO-C256 — Lloyd's-Chubb $400M consortium CARRIES; hull-war 1% (4× pre-war); P&I ALL-withdrawn CARRIES; no P&I re-entry (strongest structural signal). CENTCOM 48-vessels-redirected adds blockade-friction. HOLDING.
• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED-CARRIES — Crew refusal + fixture cancellation persistent; no maritime-union Gulf-advisory lift. HOLDING.
• Lock 5 (Duration): 🟢 TIGHTENS-FAVORABLY-C256 via SNSC-12-of-13-MoU-VOTE-DISCLOSURE — 12/13 SNSC-vote exceeds Mojtaba's 10/13 stipulated threshold; deal-content de-facto-approved pending Mojtaba sign-off (procedural not substantive); formal-announcement-third-day-slippage does NOT signal collapse. LOOSENING.
• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴 CONSOLIDATED-COALITION-CARRIES + IAEA-29TH-CYCLE-NO-STAFF — Netanyahu-CBS-Katz-uranium-endorsement CARRIES; Rubio "denuclearization ultimate deal" CARRIES. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-CARRIES + CENTCOM-BLOCKADE-TEMPO-C256 — Wafa+Daisy Aug-5 CARRIES; no fresh Aug-6/7 kinetic in ~17h window; CENTCOM 48-vessels-redirected UPDATE-C256. TIGHTENING.
• Lock 8 (Capability): 🔴 TRUMP-LEAKER-HUNT-ESCALATES-PENTAGON-DENIAL-C256 — damage-control-phase confirms munitions-shortage narrative-toxicity; DOJ tasked; Parnell formal denial; Trump-Hegseth-Camp-David-clash CARRIES. TIGHTENING (constraint-materiality reinforced).
• Lock 9 (Dual/Triple Chokepoint): 🔴 HOUTHI-KINETIC-EXECUTION-WAFA-DAISY-CARRIES + NO-FRESH-AUG-6-7-KINETIC — Bab-el-Mandeb-Yanbu-blockade INDEPENDENT of Hormuz-deal-track. TIGHTENING (independent of deal-track).
• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🟡 PEZESHKIAN-SNSC-12-OF-13-VOTE-DISCLOSED-C256 + ISRAELI-FIVE-TIER-FRAGMENTED-CARRIES — Iranian internal split now-QUANTIFIED (Pezeshkian-side got 12/13 SNSC approval; Mojtaba-side procedural-hold); Israeli five-tier fracture with nuclear-consolidated CARRIES. MIXED — Iranian-side loosening on SNSC-vote-disclosure; Israeli-side holding-fragmented.
• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴 QATAR-17%-UP-TO-5-YEARS-CARRIES + FORCE-MAJEURE-EXTENDED-INTO-MID-AUGUST-C256 — QatarEnergy Riviera + OilPrice force-majeure extension refresh; Oct-target for 83% remaining; 17% out for up-to-5-years. HOLDING with longer-tail.

(c) Critical Watch (0-72h C256)

1. Iran-Oman JOINT FINAL STATEMENT publication — Fri-late-ET / Sat / Sun window; if beyond 72h with no explanation, "third party obstruction" (Baghaei framing) materializes.
2. Mojtaba-Khamenei sign-off — 9+ cycle pending; SNSC-12-of-13 vote sets high bar for veto; procedural-timeline could be Sat-Sun.
3. Trump Sat/Sun modulation — leaker-hunt narrative-management; formal-announcement timing.
4. US formal announcement — third-day slippage; whether Sat-Sun formal statement materializes.
5. Brent Fri close — sub-$80 sustained would be de-escalation-signal; above-$88 would signal deal-collapse pricing.
6. Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-crisis — whether open-break triggers or defers.
7. Saudi retaliation for Wafa/Daisy — Yemen kinetic response likelihood rising.
8. Houthi Aug-7/8 kinetic — resume-in-window risk.
9. Hormuz-proper tanker kinetic — no fresh in 6+ cycles; watch-window.
10. EIA next weekly — T+5 days; SPR-draw continuation signal.
11. IAEA Grossi Aug-7/8 — 29-cycle silence; any statement material.
12. Pentagon leaker-investigation — internal-White-House-turmoil escalation risk.
13. Israeli "round 2" strike-plan — advancement despite deal-track.
14. Rezaei-hardliner — Sat/Sun escalation or defer.

(d) Net Assessment

Overall crisis trajectory C256: The SNSC-12-of-13 vote-disclosure is the largest single-cycle positive signal since Iran-Oman coordinates-agreement (C254) — it moves the "will Iran agree" question to "will Mojtaba sign what SNSC approved," and Mojtaba's own stipulated 10/13 threshold has been exceeded by 2 votes. This transforms the third-day formal-announcement slippage from a deal-collapse-signal into a procedural-sign-off-pending-signal. Combined with Trump's softening rhetorical cadence ("pretty soon" / "much longer") and Bessent's operational framework, the Iran-Oman-US interim-arrangement is likely to formalize in the Sat-Mon Aug 8-10 window with 60-70% probability at base-case.

What the structural locks pattern implies: Duration-lock loosening on SNSC-disclosure + Supply-lock easing (Iraq-Turkey confirmed, OPEC+ hike, CPC at-cap) + Leadership Iranian-side loosening. Against these: Insurance-lock (P&I no-re-entry) + Nuclear-lock (Netanyahu-CBS-consolidated) + Geographic-lock (CENTCOM blockade-tempo accelerating) + Capability-lock (munitions-narrative-toxicity + Pentagon-damage-control) + Dual-Chokepoint-lock (Houthi Wafa/Daisy independent of deal). The pattern suggests that even if the Hormuz-deal materializes as SNSC-approved-MoU implements, the Red-Sea Houthi-crisis, the Qatar 17%-5-year-offline, the P&I no-re-entry, and the Israeli-nuclear-tier will PERSIST past any Hormuz-deal-execution. Ceasefire on Hormuz-front does NOT equal energy-crisis-resolution.

Where the system is headed absent intervention: Base-case Sat-Mon Aug-8-10 partial formal-announcement with joint-statement release; delayed insurance-restoration Q4; energy-price volatility persists $75-$95 band Q3-Q4; Houthi Bab-el-Mandeb-Saudi-blockade independent of Hormuz-track (Saudi retaliation risk rising); Qatar Ras Laffan 17%-up-to-5-year-offline structural; SPR-drawdown continues (US approaching operational-minimums per Energy News Beat). Downside-tail 25-30%: Mojtaba-veto of SNSC-approved-MoU + Israeli-side pre-emptive strike triggered by Bluth-appointment-crisis or Katz-uranium-precondition-enforcement + Trump-decapitation-frame-execution despite munitions-constraint + full-collapse to renewed active-war.

Key uncertainties: (a) Mojtaba's actual position on SNSC-approved-MoU (procedural sign-off vs substantive veto); (b) Trump's leaker-hunt vs formal-announcement priority-ordering; (c) Whether Netanyahu-Katz Bluth-crisis breaks open before Aug-8 announcement window; (d) Saudi retaliation timeline for Wafa/Daisy; (e) Whether SNSC-approved-MoU addresses insurance-restoration mechanics; (f) Brent Aug-7-close direction (sub-$80 = de-escalation; above-$88 = collapse).

Sources (C256 web sweep)

• Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage; warns of third party obstruction (Global Security IRNA)
• Iran war live: Trump says war can't 'go much longer'; Hormuz deal close (Al Jazeera)
• Trump: Strait Of Hormuz Deal Could Come 'Tomorrow Or The Next Day' (Global Security RFERL)
• Trump vows to find 'leakers' after reports of depleted Iran war munitions (Al Jazeera)
• Trump vows jail for 'treasonous leakers' over missile shortage report (AOL)
• Donald Trump rips media reports of spat with Pete Hegseth at Camp David over munitions (The Hill)
• Trump grows angry over reports on depleted munitions (CNN Politics)
• Pezeshkian Says Access to Mojtaba Khamenei Is "Very Difficult" (Iranwire)
• Iran president says contact with supreme leader is 'very difficult' (France 24)
• Iran Update Special Report, August 3, 2026 (Critical Threats)
• CENTCOM says 44 commercial vessels redirected under Iran naval blockade (RSBN)
• CENTCOM Says 48 Vessels Diverted Under Iran Naval Blockade (IranWire)
• Iran, Oman say Strait of Hormuz talks in final stages, as Trump again teases a deal (CNBC)
• Iran, Oman Reach Agreement on Proposed Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route (Bloomberg)
• Hormuz deal 'close': What's the latest on each side's positions? (Al Jazeera)
• Iran and Oman agree route for ships in Strait of Hormuz, Tehran says (Euronews)
• Yemen's Houthis reportedly strike Saudi tanker transiting Red Sea (Daily Sabah)
• Houthis Strike Saudi Tanker Near Yanbu Port (Srpske Novine)
• Yemen's Houthis say they attacked ship in northern Red Sea (Yahoo)
• Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal (Washington Post)
• Iraq to sign extension of pipeline deal with Turkey (The National)
• Iraq to Increase Oil Exports from Basra via Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline to 140,000 bpd (IndexBox)
• QatarEnergy LNG force majeure extends into mid-August (Riviera)
• QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure Into August (OilPrice)
• Force majeure on QatarEnergy LNG extends to fourth month (AGBI)
• Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations (Al Jazeera)
• Hormuz Shipping War Risk Insurance: Crisis, Costs & Recovery 2026 (Discovery Alert)
• Gulf war risk premiums topping double-digit millions of dollars per trip (Lloyd's List)
• Iran War 2026 -- Day 159 Update -- 05 August 2026 (GlobalSecurity)
• Iran War Casualties 2026 (militaryspend.org)
• Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data (Trading Economics)
• SPR Draw Down at Critical Levels (Energy News Beat)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 307.7M bbl July 24 2026 (Vault Report)
• Korea mulling timing of oil release with possible supply crisis in August (Korea Times)
• Satellite images show damage inside Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant (Al Jazeera)
• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (Wikipedia)
• 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran (Wikipedia)