Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-08-02 · Cycle 1 (C244)

War Day: 156 | Blockade Day: 20 (Jul-14 20:00 GMT → Aug-2 early-CEST) | Ceasefire: 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 TRUMP CANCELS PLANNED IRAN ATTACK — "PERIMETERS OF DEAL AGREED TO" per Truth Social + Axios + CBS News + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Times of Israel + Fortune + Kurdistan24 late-Sat-Aug-1/early-Sun-Aug-2; Trump: framework requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel joins US commitment; MBS called Trump directly Sat urging cancellation; Qatar/UAE/Turkey/Pakistan also pressed de-escalation; Israeli Channel 12 (via TOI) reports Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise-deal dividing Hormuz — ships enter Iranian side + exit Omani side; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar — C243-WEEKEND-ENERGY-STRIKE-PLAN-CANCELLED-C244 | 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN MILITARY OFFICIALS DENY — call Trump claim "a lie" per Mehr News + TOI; Iran forces at "highest level of readiness" + warn any fighting will be "decisive"; Iran FM Araghchi in separate calls with Munir (Pakistan) + Fidan (Turkey) + Prince Faisal (Saudi) warns of "adventurous action" consequences + "decisive proportionate response" — DEAL-CONTESTED-C244 | 🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES per C243 baseline — Kuwait MFA "blatant violation of sovereignty" CARRIES; formal-diplomatic-status-escalation-status pending | 🟡 BRENT $88.18 SAT-OVERNIGHT per Investing.com (Fri close $87.84 → Sat overnight $88.18); markets closed Sat/Sun; Mon-open critical test of Trump-cancel-signal vs Iran-denial-signal + OPEC+ Aug-2 Sun decision | 🟡 CPC PARTIAL RESUMPTION AUG-1 CONFIRMED — Kazakhstan Energy Ministry rejects full-shutdown reports per Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews Aug-1; CPC resumed accepting ~100K MT/day crude from Aug-1 per Sputnik + Astana Times + qazinform; Kazakh output recovery pending tanker-arrival-timing; Oil & Gas Journal + Astana Times confirm resumption post-July-31 suspension | 🔴 OPEC+ AUG-2 SUN — Jul-5 +188K bpd August-approval CARRIES per Saudi Gazette + Egypt Oil & Gas + Enerdata + WorldOil; phased-reversal-continuation expected; Aug-3 monthly review meeting flagged | 🟢 IRAN-OMAN QATAR-US HORMUZ COMPROMISE-DEAL PROPOSAL — Iranian-side-entry/Omani-side-exit per TOI Israeli Channel 12; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance; Qatar-mediation active; direct rhyme with Islamabad-MoU-June-17-Qatar-Pakistan-brokered-frame; dual-corridor-echo of Oman-original-proposal (Al Jazeera Jul-28) | 🔴 IRGC "FULL CONTROL" HORMUZ POSTURE CARRIES; Al Areesh delivery CARRIES; Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS per Athens Times/Marine Insight — no fresh QatarEnergy departures confirmed C244 | 🔴 SPR 307.7M mb week-ending-Jul-24 CARRIES per TheVaultReport/EIA baseline; next EIA release Aug-5; SEVENTEENTH consecutive cycle no fresh policy-tier release; 172M program will bring SPR to ~243M when complete; GAO May: >25% "not available for drawdown" | 🔴🔴🔴 P&I WAR-RISK 7.5%-10% HULL CARRIES per Marsh/S&P Global + Al Jazeera + Discovery Alert + Fairway ETA; no re-entry despite Trump-cancel-signal + Al-Areesh-delivered; Hormuz-transits ~10 Jul-21 CARRIES | 🔴 HOUTHI: no fresh Yemen kinetic C244; Trump: "will hold Iran responsible" CARRIES; Jazan Aug-15 CARRIES; Abqaiq spheroid-vessel damage CARRIES; Bab-el-Mandeb Saudi-blockade CARRIES | 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES per multiple; Grossi relying on satellite imagery CARRIES; Natanz entrance-building damage confirmed; Bushehr "fresh impact scars" Jul-7-12 CARRIES; no C244 nuclear-facility strikes; Trump-cancel-signal removes immediate nuclear-facility-adjacent-strike-risk | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES per C243 baseline; usembassy.gov Security Alerts Saudi + Jerusalem + Kuwait; no formal-withdrawal C244 — deal-framework may cascade rescission | 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC EMERGENCY SESSION CONVENED JUL-31 CARRIES; NO formal resolution vote reported C244 — Trump-cancel-signal may accelerate UNSC-track OR displace it | Cycle: C244 (Sun-Aug-2 early-CEST, ~24h delta from C243 Sat-Aug-1 early-CEST)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes MCP query timed out at C244 (SEVENTEENTH consecutive cycle: C228→C244). Targeted 15-query web sweep executed post-C243 focusing on Trump-cancel-attack-Truth-Social-announcement + framework-deal-Hormuz-open-nuclear-threat-end + MBS-call-Trump-urge-cancel + Israeli-Ch12-Araghchi-agreed-Qatar-US-compromise-Iran-entry-Oman-exit + Iran-Mehr-military-denial-lie + Araghchi-adventurous-action-Munir-Fidan-Prince-Faisal-calls + CPC-Aug-1-partial-resumption-100K-MT + Kazakh-Energy-Ministry-full-shutdown-denial + OPEC+-Aug-2-Sun-decision-preview + Bushehr-Natanz-Sun-status + Ras-Laffan-Sun-departure-check + Bahrain-UNSC-resolution-vote-status + Brent-Sat-overnight-outlook + Kuwait-Bubiyan-followup + Iran-forces-highest-readiness as principal C243→C244 signal-shifts.

Baseline: C243 / 2026-08-01 Sat-early-CEST (US-ISRAEL-WEEKEND-ENERGY-STRIKE-PLAN-REPORTED + KUWAIT-BUBIYAN-DRONE-STRIKE + IRAN-RETALIATION-PLAN-PUBLISHED-5-GULF-STATE-TARGET-LIST + US-STATE-DEPT-MASS-DEPARTURE-GUIDANCE + KINETIC-CADENCE-COOLING-REVERSED + BAHRAIN-UNSC-CONVENED-NO-VOTE + CPC-PAUSE-INTO-WEEKEND + BRENT-$87-88 + AL-AREESH-DELIVERED + P&I-7.5-10% + IRGC-FULL-CONTROL + JAZAN-AUG-15 + OPEC+-AUG-2 + IAEA-NO-STAFF-CARRIES).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-08-02 C244 Sun-early-CEST, ~24h delta from C243 Sat-Aug-1 early-CEST): C244 is a TRUMP-CANCELS-PLANNED-IRAN-ATTACK-WITH-HORMUZ-FRAMEWORK-DEAL-EMERGENCE-AND-IRAN-MILITARY-DENIAL cycle — the C243 "US-Israel weekend joint-energy-strike-plan REPORTED" signal is CANCELLED by Trump Truth Social announcement late-Sat-Aug-1/early-Sun-Aug-2 confirming (a) planned attack called off, (b) "perimeters of a deal" reached, (c) framework requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel-joins-US-commitment, (d) MBS-called-Trump-Sat urging cancellation, (e) Qatar/UAE/Turkey/Pakistan also pressed de-escalation. Israeli Channel 12 via TOI reports Iranian FM Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise-deal dividing Hormuz — ships enter Iranian-controlled side + exit Omani side; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar. Iran military officials via Mehr News CONTEST framing — call Trump claim "a lie," accuse Trump of "extort and pressure Gulf leaders," warn Iran forces at "highest level of readiness" and any fighting "will be decisive." Iran FM Araghchi in separate calls with Munir (Pakistan) + Fidan (Turkey) + Prince Faisal (Saudi) warns of "adventurous action" consequences + "firm, proportionate response from Iran's armed forces." CPC Aug-1 partial-resumption CONFIRMED at ~100K MT/day per Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews — Kazakhstan Energy Ministry rejects full-shutdown reports. OPEC+ Aug-2 Sun-decision T-0. Kuwait Bubiyan Jul-31 → Aug-1 CARRIES. Structural locks pattern: KINETIC-CADENCE-COOL-RE-REVERSED (DE-ESCALATION) + DURATION-LOOSENS-CONDITIONAL + PRICE-PRIMES-DOWNSIDE-BUT-CONTESTED + INSURANCE-HOLDS-UNCHANGED. C243 → C244 KEY REFINEMENTS (US-cancel-attack-and-framework-deal-tier — MAJOR DE-ESCALATION SIGNAL): (1) Trump cancels planned Iran attack per Truth Social announcement late-Sat-Aug-1/early-Sun-Aug-2 + Axios + CBS + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Fortune + Kurdistan24 + Townhall — "subject to being able to rapidly make a deal"; "perimeters of a deal has been agreed to"; framework requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat"; Israel-joins-US-commitment. C243 "US-Israel weekend joint-energy-strike-plan REPORTED" signal CANCELLED. KINETIC-CADENCE-COOL-C242-REVERSED-C243-RE-REVERSED-C244. C243 → C244 KEY REFINEMENTS (MBS-mediation-tier — Saudi-CROWN-PRINCE-DIRECT-CALL): (2) MBS called Trump directly Sat urging cancellation per Axios (Ravid + Caputo) — Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed concern over strike plans hours before Trump's Truth Social post. Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Pakistan also pressed for de-escalation. Gulf-state-collective-diplomatic-pressure produces observable de-escalation effect. C243 → C244 KEY REFINEMENTS (Israeli-Ch12-Araghchi-compromise-tier — DUAL-CORRIDOR-HORMUZ-PROPOSAL): (3) Israeli Channel 12 (via Times of Israel) reports Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise-deal dividing Hormuz — ships enter Persian Gulf on Iranian-controlled side + exit via Omani side; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar; Qataris attempting to secure IRGC compliance-commitment. Direct rhyme with Islamabad-MoU-June-17-Qatar-Pakistan-brokered-frame + Oman-original-dual-corridor-proposal (Al Jazeera Jul-28) with Iranian side requiring PGSA-pre-clearance. HORMUZ-DUAL-CORRIDOR-PROPOSAL-EMERGES-C244. C243 → C244 KEY REFINEMENTS (Iran-military-denial-tier — DEAL-CONTESTED): (4) Iran military officials call Trump claim "a lie" per Mehr News (semi-official government agency) + Times of Israel + Xinhua Aug-2 — unnamed Iranian military officials accuse Trump of attempting to "extort and pressure Gulf leaders"; Iran forces at "highest level of readiness"; warning any fighting "will be decisive" and "show who holds the real power." DEAL-CONTESTED-BY-IRAN-MILITARY-C244. C243 → C244 KEY REFINEMENTS (Iran-FM-Araghchi-tier — PROPORTIONATE-RESPONSE-WARNING-STACKED): (5) Araghchi separate phone calls with Pakistan-Munir + Turkey-Fidan + Saudi-Prince-Faisal per Prokerala + Mumbaipress + Munsifdaily Aug-2 — warns of "adventurous action" consequences; Iran "fully prepared to safeguard national sovereignty" + "respond decisively to any act of aggression"; warns Saudi/Turkey any "regional support" for US/Israeli hostile action draws "firm, proportionate response from Iran's armed forces." C243 → C244 KEY REFINEMENTS (CPC-supply-tier — PARTIAL RESUMPTION CONFIRMED): (6) CPC Aug-1 partial resumption at ~100K MT/day per Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews + qazinform + Oil & Gas Journal + Marketscreener — Kazakhstan Energy Ministry REJECTS full-shutdown reports; CPC "temporarily suspended operations on July 31 but continues to receive crude oil from shippers and store in tank facilities"; "beginning Aug 1, the CPC resumed accepting around 100,000 metric tons of crude oil per day"; "further increases in transportation volumes will depend on the timely arrival of tankers for loading at consortium's marine terminal." CPC-PARTIAL-RESUMPTION-C244 (deltas C243 "pause-persists-into-weekend"). C243 → C244 CARRIES (structural-tier): (7) Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES — Kuwait MFA "blatant violation of sovereignty"; formal-diplomatic-status-escalation pending; no fresh Kuwait-target C244. (8) Iran retaliation plan naming 5-Gulf-state + Israel energy-target-list PUBLISHED CARRIES but DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED by Trump-cancel-signal. (9) US State Dept mass-departure guidance CARRIES — no formal-withdrawal C244; deal-framework may cascade rescission. (10) Bahrain UNSC session Jul-31 CARRIES — NO formal resolution vote reported C244; Trump-cancel-signal may accelerate OR displace UNSC-track. (11) Al Areesh delivery + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen holds CARRIES — no fresh QatarEnergy departure C244. (12) P&I 7.5-10% hull CARRIES — no re-entry despite Trump-cancel-signal (deal-fragile + Iran-denial). (13) Houthi Jazan Aug-15 CARRIES — no fresh Yemen kinetic C244; Bab-el-Mandeb Saudi-blockade CARRIES. (14) IAEA no staff + satellite-only CARRIES; no C244 nuclear-facility strikes; Trump-cancel-signal removes immediate nuclear-facility-adjacent-strike-risk. (15) OPEC+ Aug-2 Sun-decision T-0 — Jul-5 +188K bpd August approved; expected phased-reversal continuation. Structural locks (C243 → C244): Lock-1 (Price) HOLDS-PENDING-MON-OPEN — Brent $88.18 Sat-overnight; Mon-open primes DOWNSIDE on Trump-cancel-signal vs UPSIDE on Iran-denial + OPEC+-outcome; Lock-2 (Supply) TIGHT-BUT-CPC-EASES-PARTIAL — CPC Aug-1 resumed ~100K MT/day (recovery pending); Al-Areesh + Ras Laffan queue holds; Lock-3 (Insurance) TIGHT-HOLDS SEVENTEENTH-CYCLE — no re-entry; deal-fragile + Iran-military-denial forestalls; Lock-5 (Duration) LOOSENS-CONDITIONAL — Trump-cancel + framework-deal + Israeli-Ch12-Araghchi-agreement primes de-escalation-window; Iran-military-denial + Araghchi-proportionate-response-warning caps expectations; Lock-6 (Nuclear) STABLE-DE-RISKED-CONDITIONAL — no C244 strikes; deal-framework requires "end Iran's nuclear threat"; IAEA-satellite-only CARRIES; Lock-7 (Geographic) HOLDS-KUWAIT-BUBIYAN-CARRIES — Bahrain UNSC-track + Kuwait Bubiyan carry; deal-framework may cascade Gulf-state-preemptive-target-hardening rescission; Lock-8 (Capability) HOLDS — Kuwait interception validates Gulf-air-defense-capacity; US-strike-cadence paused; Lock-9 (Dual Chokepoint) EASES-CONDITIONAL — CPC-partial-resumption; Hormuz-dual-corridor-proposal emerges; Red Sea + Egypt-Med CARRIES; Lock-10 (Leadership) HOLDS — Mojtaba-Khamenei succession CARRIES; Iran military-command formal-denial-statement escalates rhetorical-tempo; Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) STABLE-DE-RISKED-CONDITIONAL — Trump-cancel-signal removes immediate Iran-side damage-tier expectation (Kharg, South Pars, Bushehr-adjacent, Isfahan, Abadan); Iran-retaliation-plan-published DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED for Gulf-side. Critical 0-6h to Sun-mid-day + 0-24h to Mon-Aug-3 + 0-48h to OPEC+ Sun-Aug-2: (a) Whether Iran leadership (Mojtaba-Khamenei, IRGC, Araghchi) formalizes acceptance OR rejection of Trump-cancel-frame; (b) Whether Israeli PM Netanyahu formalizes coordination with US-cancel-signal or breaks; (c) Whether MBS + Qatar + UAE + Turkey + Pakistan announce joint mediation framework Sun; (d) Whether Kuwait declares formal-diplomatic-status-escalation with Iran post-Bubiyan (Trump-cancel-signal may displace); (e) Whether Bahrain UNSC produces formal Iran-condemnation-resolution Sun (Trump-cancel-signal may displace); (f) OPEC+ Aug-2 Sun-decision +188K vs +379K vs pause given de-escalation-signal-and-Iran-denial-signal; (g) Whether CPC ramps volumes Sun/Mon beyond ~100K MT/day; (h) Whether Brent Mon-open breaks $85 on Trump-cancel-signal or firms $88 on Iran-denial + OPEC+ outcome; (i) Whether P&I clubs signal reconsideration of Gulf coverage on deal-emergence (unlikely on fragile-framework); (j) Whether IAEA Grossi issues statement Sun given deal-nuclear-component; (k) Whether additional Ras Laffan tankers depart Sun; (l) Whether US-departure-guidance rescinded or maintained given deal-emergence; (m) Whether Iran retaliation-plan-target-list formally-withdrawn; (n) Whether IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar for Hormuz-dual-corridor produces concrete-commitment.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C243 → C244 DELTAS)

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 TRUMP CANCELS PLANNED IRAN ATTACK per Truth Social + Axios + CBS + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Fortune + Kurdistan24 + Townhall late-Sat-Aug-1/early-Sun-Aug-2 — "subject to being able to rapidly make a deal"; "perimeters of a deal has been agreed to"; requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel-joins-US-commitment. KINETIC-CADENCE-C243-STRIKE-PLAN-CANCELLED-C244 — first observable MAJOR de-escalation signal since C241.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 HORMUZ DUAL-CORRIDOR COMPROMISE-DEAL PROPOSAL per Times of Israel + Israeli Channel 12 Aug-2 — Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered deal: ships enter Iranian-controlled side + exit Omani side; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar. Rhyme with Islamabad-MoU-June-17 + Oman-July-28-dual-corridor-proposal. DUAL-CORRIDOR-HORMUZ-PROPOSAL-EMERGES-C244.

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 MBS DIRECT CALL TO TRUMP URGING CANCELLATION per Axios (Ravid + Caputo) Sat-Aug-1 — Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed concern over strike plans hours before Trump's Truth Social post; Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Pakistan also pressed for de-escalation. GULF-COLLECTIVE-MEDIATION-C244.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IRAN MILITARY OFFICIALS DENY per Mehr News (semi-official Iranian government) + TOI + Xinhua Aug-2 — call Trump claim "a lie"; accuse Trump of "extort and pressure Gulf leaders"; Iran forces at "highest level of readiness"; warn any fighting "will be decisive." DEAL-CONTESTED-BY-IRAN-MILITARY-C244.

• 🔴🔴 IRAN FM ARAGHCHI PROPORTIONATE-RESPONSE-WARNING per Prokerala + Mumbaipress + Munsifdaily Aug-2 — Araghchi separate phone calls with Pakistan-Munir + Turkey-Fidan + Saudi-Prince-Faisal; warns of "adventurous action" consequences; Iran "fully prepared" + will "respond decisively"; warns any "regional support" draws "firm, proportionate response from Iran's armed forces."

• 🟡🟡 CPC PARTIAL RESUMPTION AUG-1 CONFIRMED per Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews + qazinform + Oil & Gas Journal Aug-1 — CPC "temporarily suspended Jul-31 but continues to receive crude and store in tank facilities"; "Aug-1 resumed accepting ~100K MT/day"; Kazakhstan Energy Ministry REJECTS full-shutdown reports; volumes-increase pending tanker-arrival-timing. CPC-PARTIAL-RESUMPTION-C244.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 KUWAIT BUBIYAN AUG-1 CARRIES — Kuwait MFA "blatant violation of sovereignty"; formal-diplomatic-status-escalation-status pending; no fresh Kuwait-target C244.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 IRAN RETALIATION PLAN NAMING 5-GULF-STATE + ISRAEL ENERGY-TARGET-LIST PUBLISHED CARRIES per Critical Threats + Iran International — but DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED by Trump-cancel-signal + framework-deal-emergence.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 US STATE DEPT MASS DEPARTURE GUIDANCE CARRIES — no formal-withdrawal C244; deal-framework may cascade rescission.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 BAHRAIN UNSC POST-CONVENING — session Jul-31 CARRIES; NO formal resolution vote reported C244; Trump-cancel-signal may accelerate OR displace UNSC-track.

• 🔴 OPEC+ AUG-2 SUN-DECISION T-0 — Jul-5 +188K bpd August approved; expected phased-reversal continuation; ~379K bpd voluntary cuts remaining.

• 🟢 AL AREESH DELIVERY CARRIES; Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS; no fresh QatarEnergy Ras Laffan departures confirmed C244.

• 🔴 IRGC "FULL CONTROL" HORMUZ POSTURE CARRIES; Iran-Cyprus + Iran-Bulgaria diplomatic-hardening CARRIES; no C244 fresh diplomatic-escalation.

• 🔴 SPR 307.7M mb week-ending-Jul-24 CARRIES; SEVENTEENTH consecutive cycle no fresh release; next EIA release Aug-5.

• 🔴🔴🔴 P&I WAR-RISK 7.5-10% HULL CARRIES; no re-entry despite Trump-cancel-signal (deal-fragile + Iran-military-denial).

• 🔴 HOUTHI JAZAN AUG-15 CARRIES; no fresh Yemen kinetic C244; Bab-el-Mandeb Saudi-blockade CARRIES.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA NO STAFF IN IRAN CARRIES; no C244 nuclear-facility strikes; Bushehr "fresh impact scars" Jul-7-12 CARRIES; Trump-cancel-signal removes immediate nuclear-adjacent-strike-risk.

• 🔴 STRAIT STILL EFFECTIVELY CLOSED — Al-Areesh single-lane-precedent does not reopen Strait; deal-framework requires "immediate, complete, total OPENING"; Iran-military-denial complicates; Hormuz-dual-corridor-proposal EMERGES but no operational-execution C244.

• 🔴 NO FRESH TANKER ATTACK C244 (~24h window Sun-early-CEST); no fresh Iranian-drone-strikes on Gulf-states C244.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 156 / Ceasefire STATUS: KINETIC-CADENCE-COOL-RE-REVERSED (DE-ESCALATION) and TRUMP-CANCELS-PLANNED-IRAN-ATTACK-WITH-HORMUZ-FRAMEWORK-DEAL-EMERGENCE-AND-IRAN-MILITARY-DENIAL cycle. C244 confirms (a) Trump cancels planned Iran attack per Truth Social + Axios + CBS + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Fortune late-Sat-Aug-1/early-Sun-Aug-2 — "perimeters of a deal has been agreed to"; framework requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel-joins-US-commitment; (b) MBS called Trump directly Sat urging cancellation (Axios Ravid + Caputo); Qatar/UAE/Turkey/Pakistan also pressed de-escalation; (c) Israeli Channel 12 via TOI reports Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise-deal dividing Hormuz — Iranian-side entry + Omani-side exit; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar; (d) Iran military officials via Mehr call Trump claim "a lie" — accuse Trump of "extort and pressure Gulf leaders"; Iran forces at "highest level of readiness"; (e) Araghchi separate calls with Munir + Fidan + Prince Faisal warn "adventurous action" consequences + "decisive proportionate response"; (f) CPC Aug-1 partial resumption ~100K MT/day confirmed per Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews; Kazakhstan denies full-shutdown; (g) Kuwait Bubiyan Jul-31 → Aug-1 CARRIES; (h) OPEC+ Aug-2 Sun-decision T-0. 10-day ceasefire proposal ABSORBED by Trump-cancel-frame; Iran-Oman-50-50-rejection CARRIES structurally but SUPERSEDED by dual-corridor-proposal; Trump "sick people" + "waste of time" C243-baseline REVERSED by Trump-cancel-and-deal-frame. War cost $37.5B CARRIES. C243 → C244 (~24h delta Sat-Aug-1 early-CEST → Sun-Aug-2 early-CEST).

Cross-leg status (C244 deltas only — CARRIES not enumerated where unchanged):

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 Iran-US direct-leg — Trump CANCELS planned attack; framework deal emerges; Iran military DENIES + calls "lie"; Iran forces at "highest readiness"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 US-Israel joint-strike-plan — CANCELLED per Trump Truth Social; Israel joins US-commitment per Trump; Netanyahu-formal-response pending
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 Iran-Saudi-Qatar-UAE-Turkey-Pakistan mediator-leg — MBS direct-call to Trump; Qatar mediation active for Hormuz-dual-corridor + IRGC-assurance; Islamabad-MoU-June-17 rhyme
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Kuwait direct-leg — Kuwait Bubiyan Jul-31 → Aug-1 CARRIES; formal-diplomatic-status-escalation pending
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Gulf-energy-target-list-tier — CARRIES on paper; DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED by Trump-cancel-signal
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Bahrain diplomatic-leg — UNSC emergency session Jul-31 CARRIES; NO formal resolution vote reported C244
• 🟡🟡 Kazakhstan/Russia CPC — Third-shutdown Aug-1 PARTIAL RESUMPTION at ~100K MT/day; Kazakhstan denies full shutdown; volumes pending tanker-timing
• 🟢 Qatar-Pakistan supply-leg — Al Areesh delivery CARRIES; Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS; no fresh departure C244
• 🔴🔴🔴 Egypt — Damietta damage CARRIES; Cronos-Cyprus 2028-supply-arrangement CARRIES
• 🟡🟡 Israel-Hamas — Trump-Netanyahu-Board-of-Peace-Hamas-disarmament-Jul-30 frame CARRIES; separately from Iran-front
• 🟡 China — 41.3% June crude import cut CARRIES; Cosco Bab-el-Mandeb CARRIES
• 🔴🔴🔴 India — Cape-diversion + LPG-emergency-powers CARRIES; Russian crude 2.57 MMbpd CARRIES
• 🟢🟢🟢 Pakistan mediator — Al-Areesh precedent CARRIES; mediator-role CARRIES; Munir-Araghchi-call Aug-2 CARRIES
• 🔴🔴🔴 US civilian-tier — State Dept mass-departure guidance CARRIES; no formal-withdrawal C244; deal-framework may cascade rescission
• 🟡🟡🟡 Nuclear-tier — no C244 nuclear-facility strikes; IAEA-no-staff + satellite-only CARRIES; deal-framework requires "end Iran's nuclear threat"
• 🟡🟡 Iran-Cyprus + Iran-Bulgaria — Araghchi-hardening CARRIES; no C244 escalation

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 NEW Trump cancels planned Iran attack via Truth Social (Axios + CBS + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Fortune + Kurdistan24 + Townhall)
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 NEW Framework deal: "Immediate, Complete, Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel-joins-commitment per Trump
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 NEW Israeli Ch12 via TOI reports Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise (Iranian-side entry + Omani-side exit)
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 NEW MBS direct call to Trump urging cancellation (Axios Ravid + Caputo)
• 🟢🟢🟢 NEW Qatar + UAE + Turkey + Pakistan collective-pressure for de-escalation
• 🔴🔴🔴 NEW Iran military officials via Mehr News call Trump claim "a lie"; forces at "highest readiness"
• 🔴🔴 NEW Araghchi separate calls with Munir + Fidan + Prince Faisal warn "adventurous action" consequences
• 🟡🟡 NEW CPC Aug-1 partial resumption at ~100K MT/day per Sputnik + Astana Times + qazinform; Kazakh Energy Ministry denies full shutdown
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Kuwait Bubiyan Jul-31 → Aug-1 drone-strike + Kuwait MFA "blatant violation" statement
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES US State Dept mass-departure guidance for Americans across ME
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CARRIES Iran retaliation plan naming 5-Gulf-state + Israel energy-target-list published
• 🔴 CARRIES SPR 307.7M mb (no fresh release C244)
• 🔴 CARRIES IAEA no staff in Iran + satellite-only
• 🟢 CARRIES Al Areesh delivery + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS
• 🔴 No fresh Yemen kinetic C244
• 🔴 No fresh tanker attack C244
• 🔴 NO formal Bahrain UNSC resolution vote reported C244

• Iran civilian dead: 58+ killed / 629+ injured CARRIES
• Bahrain civilian dead: 3 confirmed / 465 injured CARRIES
• Kuwait civilian casualties Aug-1 Bubiyan: 0 injuries CARRIES from C243 (shrapnel-damage vehicles + govt facility)
• US KIA/wounded: 2 KIA + 4 wounded + 1 missing Jul-16 Jordan CARRIES
• Iran displaced: ~3M IDPs CARRIES
• Lebanon: 4,000+ CARRIES
• Israel: 57 CARRIES
• Total war deaths: 8,971–18,305+ all-sides CARRIES

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (cumulative — C244 additions only)

C244 additions: No new tanker/vessel attack incidents confirmed C244 (~24h window Sun-early-CEST). Trump-cancel-signal REMOVES immediate energy-infrastructure damage expectation on Iran-side (Kharg, South Pars, Bushehr-adjacent, Isfahan, Abadan). Iran-retaliation-plan-published DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED for Gulf-side (SAMREF/Jubail/Al Hosn/Ras Laffan/Mesaieed rhyme). Al Rekayyat salvage still awaits. Layla independent damage assessment still pending. CPC Aug-1 partial resumption ~100K MT/day validates operational-recovery-partial.

• No new tanker/vessel attack confirmed C244 (~24h)
• US-Israel weekend-energy-strike-plan CANCELLED per Trump Truth Social — de-escalation-signal
• No new energy-infrastructure damage confirmed C244
• Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 CARRIES; no fresh Kuwait target C244
• Al Areesh delivered + Ras Laffan queue ~dozen HOLDS
• CPC Aug-1 partial resumption ~100K MT/day confirmed

• 🟢 Trump-cancel-signal REMOVES immediate energy-infrastructure damage-tier expectation
• 🔴 Neutral state infrastructure attacks stack: CARRIES + Kuwait Bubiyan land-tier
• 🔴 Iran-flagged vessel struck by Ukraine SBU Caspian CARRIES
• 🟢 Al Areesh salvage → DELIVERED CARRIES
• 🔴 Energos Winter tank BREACH confirmed CARRIES
• 🔴 Houthi Jazan Aug-15 CARRIES
• 🔴 Iran-retaliation-plan CARRIES on paper but DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts / geopolitical statements C243 → C244 NEW:

• 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢 Trump Truth Social + Axios + CBS + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Fortune + Kurdistan24 + Townhall Aug-2: Trump cancels planned Iran attack; framework deal requires Hormuz "immediate complete total opening" + "end Iran's nuclear threat"
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 Times of Israel + Israeli Channel 12 Aug-2: Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise dividing Hormuz — Iranian-side entry + Omani-side exit; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance
• 🟢🟢🟢🟢 Axios (Ravid + Caputo) Aug-1: MBS direct-call to Trump urging cancellation
• 🔴🔴🔴 Mehr News + Times of Israel + Xinhua Aug-2: Iran military officials call Trump claim "a lie"; forces at "highest readiness"
• 🔴🔴 Prokerala + Mumbaipress + Munsifdaily Aug-2: Iran FM Araghchi separate phone calls with Munir + Fidan + Prince Faisal warn "adventurous action" consequences
• 🟡🟡 Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews + qazinform + Oil & Gas Journal Aug-1: CPC Aug-1 partial resumption ~100K MT/day; Kazakhstan denies full shutdown
• 🟡 Investing.com: Brent Sat-overnight $88.18 (Fri close $87.84)
• 🟡 Athens Times + Marine Insight: Ras Laffan queue ~dozen tankers holds without fresh departure C244
• 🔴 Al Jazeera Aug-2 livelblog: Tehran warns of "decisive response" to any US-Israeli aggression

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

C244 status:

6. Bypass Infrastructure

7. Maritime Insurance

8. Shadow Fleet

C244 narrative: No fresh shadow-fleet seizure or enforcement action confirmed C244 (~24h). Iran shadow-fleet 1,400+ vessels CARRIES. GRU/Wagner militarization CARRIES. Al Areesh — LEGITIMATE QatarEnergy tanker — NOT shadow-fleet-tier CARRIES; validates commercial-transit-with-Iran-permission as separate channel. CPC Aug-1 partial resumption ~100K MT/day reduces Ukraine-nexus targeting immediate-tempo. Trump-cancel-signal reduces near-term shadow-fleet-target-repricing risk; Iran-retaliation-plan-published DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED for Gulf-side.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy Actions

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. Trump cancels planned Iran attack per Truth Social announcement late-Sat-Aug-1/early-Sun-Aug-2 + Axios + CBS + CNN + NBC + Al Jazeera + NPR + Fortune + Kurdistan24 + Townhall — "subject to being able to rapidly make a deal"; "perimeters of a deal has been agreed to"; framework requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel-joins-US-commitment. Major de-escalation signal — first in weeks.

1. Hormuz dual-corridor compromise-deal proposal per Israeli Channel 12 via Times of Israel Aug-2 — Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered deal: ships enter Persian Gulf on Iranian-controlled side + exit via Omani side; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar. Direct rhyme with Islamabad-MoU-June-17 + Oman-original-dual-corridor-proposal (Al Jazeera Jul-28).

1. MBS direct call to Trump urging cancellation per Axios (Ravid + Caputo) Sat-Aug-1 — Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed concern over strike plans hours before Trump's Truth Social post. Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Pakistan also pressed for de-escalation. Gulf-collective-mediation produces observable de-escalation-signal.

1. Iran military officials DENY per Mehr News (semi-official) + Times of Israel + Xinhua Aug-2 — call Trump claim "a lie"; accuse Trump of "extort and pressure Gulf leaders"; Iran forces at "highest level of readiness"; warn any fighting "will be decisive." Deal-framework CONTESTED.

1. Iran FM Araghchi separate calls with Munir + Fidan + Prince Faisal per Prokerala + Mumbaipress + Munsifdaily Aug-2 — warns of "adventurous action" consequences; Iran "fully prepared to safeguard national sovereignty"; warns any "regional support" draws "firm, proportionate response from Iran's armed forces."

1. CPC Aug-1 partial resumption at ~100K MT/day per Sputnik + Astana Times + Azernews + qazinform + Oil & Gas Journal + Marketscreener — Kazakhstan Energy Ministry REJECTS full-shutdown reports; volumes-recovery pending tanker-arrival-timing. CPC-partial-supply-recovery narrows GAP-metric.

1. No fresh C244 tanker attacks, Yemen kinetic, Kuwait targets, or nuclear-facility strikes — Kuwait Bubiyan Aug-1 + US State Dept mass-departure + Iran retaliation-plan-published CARRY without new development.

(b) Structural Locks Status

• Lock-1 (Price) — 🟡 HOLDS-PENDING-MON-OPEN / CONTESTED — Brent $88.18 Sat-overnight; Mon-open primes DOWNSIDE $83-85 on Trump-cancel-signal vs UPSIDE $92+ on Iran-military-denial + Araghchi-warning + OPEC+-outcome
• Lock-2 (Supply) — 🟡 TIGHT-BUT-EASES-PARTIAL — CPC Aug-1 partial resumption ~100K MT/day (~732K bpd); Al Areesh + Ras Laffan queue holds without expansion
• Lock-3 (Insurance) — 🔴 TIGHT-HOLDS SEVENTEENTH-CYCLE — no re-entry; deal-fragile + Iran-military-denial forestalls P&I reconsideration
• Lock-4 (Labor) — 🔴 HOLDING-HARDENED — CARRIES; deal-framework may cascade labor-tier relief if IRGC-assurance concrete
• Lock-5 (Duration) — 🟢 LOOSENS-CONDITIONAL — Trump-cancel + framework-deal + Israeli-Ch12-Araghchi-agreement primes de-escalation-window; Iran-military-denial + Araghchi-proportionate-response-warning caps expectations
• Lock-6 (Nuclear) — 🟢 STABLE-DE-RISKED-CONDITIONAL — no C244 strikes; deal-framework requires "end Iran's nuclear threat"; IAEA-satellite-only CARRIES; Bushehr-adjacent-strike-risk removed near-term
• Lock-7 (Geographic) — 🔴 HOLDS-KUWAIT-BUBIYAN-CARRIES — Bahrain UNSC-track + Kuwait Bubiyan carry; deal-framework may cascade Gulf-state-preemptive-target-hardening rescission
• Lock-8 (Capability) — 🟡 HOLDS — Kuwait interception validates Gulf-air-defense-capacity; US-strike-cadence paused per Trump-cancel
• Lock-9 (Dual Chokepoint) — 🟡 EASES-CONDITIONAL — CPC-partial-resumption; Hormuz-dual-corridor-proposal emerges; Red Sea + Egypt-Med CARRIES
• Lock-10 (Leadership) — 🟡 HOLDING — Mojtaba-Khamenei succession CARRIES; Iran military-command formal-denial-statement escalates rhetorical-tempo; Iran-leadership-formal-response-to-deal pending
• Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) — 🟢 STABLE-DE-RISKED-CONDITIONAL — Trump-cancel-signal removes immediate Iran-side damage-tier expectation (Kharg, South Pars, Bushehr-adjacent, Isfahan, Abadan); Iran-retaliation-plan-published DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED for Gulf-side (SAMREF, Jubail, Al Hosn, Ras Laffan, Mesaieed)

(c) Critical Watch

• 0-6h Sun-mid-day + 0-24h to Mon-Aug-3 + 0-48h to OPEC+ Sun-Aug-2:

• Watch flags: (a) Iran nuclear-facility integrity holds C244 — Bushehr, Natanz, Isfahan; (b) Al Rekayyat salvage pending; (c) Layla independent damage assessment pending; (d) Iran-Cyprus + Iran-Bulgaria hardening — Greece/Turkey/other foreign-base-hosts monitoring; (e) Kuwait formal diplomatic-status-escalation announcement pending; (f) OPEC+ Aug-3 monthly-review-meeting outcome; (g) Whether Trump-cancel-frame holds through weekend

(d) Net Assessment

C244 (~24h Sat-Aug-1 early-CEST → Sun-Aug-2 early-CEST) is a kinetic-cadence-cool-re-reversed (de-escalation) and Trump-cancels-planned-Iran-attack-with-Hormuz-framework-deal-emergence-and-Iran-military-denial cycle that CANCELS the C243 "US-Israel weekend joint-energy-strike-plan REPORTED" signal via Trump Truth Social announcement late-Sat/early-Sun confirming planned attack called off and "perimeters of a deal" reached. Framework requires "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" + "end Iran's nuclear threat" + Israel-joins-US-commitment. Israeli Channel 12 via Times of Israel reports Iranian FM Araghchi agreed to Qatar-US-brokered compromise-deal dividing Hormuz — Iranian-side entry + Omani-side exit; Oman conditionally-agreed pending IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar. MBS made direct call to Trump Sat-Aug-1 urging cancellation; Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Pakistan also pressed for de-escalation. However, Iran military officials via Mehr News CONTEST framing — call Trump claim "a lie," accuse Trump of "extort and pressure Gulf leaders," warn Iran forces at "highest level of readiness." Iran FM Araghchi in separate calls with Munir + Fidan + Prince Faisal warns "adventurous action" consequences and "decisive proportionate response." CPC Aug-1 partial resumption at ~100K MT/day confirmed; Kazakhstan Energy Ministry rejects full-shutdown reports. Kuwait Bubiyan Jul-31 → Aug-1 CARRIES. OPEC+ Aug-2 Sun-decision T-0.

The structural convergence pattern is kinetic-cadence-cool-re-reversed (de-escalation) + duration-loosens-conditional + price-primes-downside-but-contested + insurance-holds-unchanged. Lock-1 (Price) HOLDS-PENDING-MON-OPEN with cross-signals; Lock-2 (Supply) EASES-PARTIAL via CPC-partial-resumption; Lock-5 (Duration) LOOSENS-CONDITIONAL — Trump-cancel + framework-deal + Israeli-Ch12-Araghchi-agreement primes de-escalation-window, capped by Iran-military-denial + Araghchi-proportionate-response-warning. Lock-6 (Nuclear) STABLE-DE-RISKED — deal-framework requires "end Iran's nuclear threat"; Bushehr-adjacent-strike-risk removed near-term. Lock-11 (Energy Infrastructure) STABLE-DE-RISKED — Trump-cancel removes Iran-side damage-tier expectation; Iran-retaliation-plan DIRECTIONALLY-DE-ACTIVATED for Gulf-side. Lock-3 (Insurance) HOLDS-TIGHT seventeenth-cycle — deal-fragile + Iran-military-denial forestalls P&I reconsideration.

Absent formal Iran-leadership acceptance and IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar concrete-commitment in 0-48h to OPEC+ Sun-Aug-2 window, the system appears headed toward conditional de-escalation with high contestation-risk. The C243 escalation-convergence toward weekend-strike-execution RESOLVES in C244 toward CONVERGENCE-DE-ESCALATION on Trump-cancel-signal, but the Iran-military-denial narrative + Araghchi-proportionate-response-warning + Iran-forces-highest-readiness create COUNTERVAILING-CONTESTATION vector. The Iranian-military-denial framing carries deliberate ambiguity — it may reflect (1) domestic-audience-management by Iranian hardliners not consulted on Araghchi-track; (2) genuine-rejection preserving retaliation-option; (3) negotiation-tactic increasing Iran's leverage in framework-finalization. Bahrain-UNSC-track + Kuwait-formal-diplomatic-escalation-track may be accelerated or displaced by Trump-cancel-frame. CPC partial-resumption at ~100K MT/day narrows GAP-metric to 11-13 mb/d unbridgeable (from C243 12-14). P&I re-entry structural-de-escalation signal remains absent — first re-entry would confirm deal-framework validity. Mon-open Brent test will be first market-tier read on Trump-cancel-signal durability vs Iran-military-denial credibility.

Key uncertainties: (1) Whether Iran leadership formally accepts Trump-cancel-frame OR endorses Iran-military-denial narrative; (2) Whether IRGC-assurance-broker-by-Qatar produces concrete-commitment on Hormuz-dual-corridor; (3) Whether Netanyahu formalizes Israel-joins-US-commitment or breaks; (4) OPEC+ Aug-2 decision given de-escalation-vs-Iran-denial cross-signals; (5) Whether Kuwait declares formal-diplomatic-status-escalation post-Bubiyan (Trump-cancel-signal may displace); (6) Whether Bahrain UNSC produces formal Iran-condemnation-resolution Sun; (7) Whether IAEA Grossi issues statement given deal-nuclear-component; (8) Whether CPC ramps volumes Sun/Mon beyond ~100K MT/day; (9) Whether Trump-cancel-frame holds through weekend; (10) Whether P&I clubs signal reconsideration of Gulf coverage; (11) Whether US-departure-guidance rescinded or maintained; (12) Whether additional Ras Laffan tankers depart Sun; (13) Whether Iranian-military-denial reflects tactical-leverage OR genuine-rejection; (14) Whether Al Areesh precedent expands to multi-lane operational-execution of Hormuz-dual-corridor-proposal.

Sources (C244 principal — new):

• Trump cancels Iran attack, citing progress in negotiations — Axios Aug-2
• Trump signals deal to end Iran war may be imminent, agrees to "cancel the attack" — CBS News
• Live Updates: Trump says attack on Iran canceled after rough framework of deal reached — CBS News
• Iran war live: Trump cancels attack, calls for a 'rapid' deal on Hormuz — Al Jazeera Aug-2
• Trump cancels Iran strike, says 'deal perimeters' reached — Al Jazeera Aug-2
• Trump says he has canceled strikes on Iran, signals move toward deal — NBC News Live
• Live updates: US-Iran war; Trump says he's canceling planned attacks — CNN Aug-2
• Trump says he's cancelling Iran strikes, deal pending — NPR Aug-2
• Trump Cancels Massive Iran Strike After Tehran Requests Halt, Demands Hormuz Opening and Nuclear Deal — Kurdistan24
• Trump backs off from new strikes on Iran, claiming Mideast allies have outlines of an emerging deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — Fortune Aug-1
• Trump Halts Massive Iran Attack Plan. Here's Why. — Townhall
• Top Iran diplomat said to agree to deal dividing Hormuz, spurring Trump to call off attack — Times of Israel Aug-2
• Iran's Araghchi agreed to deal opening Hormuz, leading Trump to cancel attack — report — Times of Israel Aug-2
• Iranian sources push back at Trump claim Tehran sought retreat from fight — Times of Israel Aug-2
• Iran denies asking U.S. to pause strikes, calls Trump's words a lie — Xinhua Aug-2
• Iranian FM warns US against 'adventurous' actions — Prokerala Aug-2
• Iranian FM warns US against 'adventurous' actions — Mumbai Press Aug-2
• Iranian FM warns Britain against cooperation with US strikes on Iran — Munsif Daily Aug-2
• US and Iran seek Hormuz compromise as Trump keeps military option open — Ynet
• Trump Halts Iran Strike, Cites Hormuz Deal Framework — New Kerala
• Kazakhstan denies reports of full Caspian Pipeline Consortium shutdown — Azernews Aug-1
• Kazakhstan Rejects Reports of Complete CPC Shutdown — The Astana Times Aug-1
• Kazakh Energy Ministry Rules Out Complete Shutdown of Caspian Pipeline Consortium — Sputnik
• CPC terminal resumes oil intake after temporary suspension — qazinform
• Kazakhstan resumes CPC oil exports — Oil & Gas Journal
• Kazakhstan Restarts CPC Oil Exports After Week-Long Black Sea Shutdown — OilPrice.com
• Kazakhstan Resumes CPC Oil Exports as Marine Terminal Reopens — The Astana Times
• Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Today — Investing.com
• Iran Update Evening Special Report, August 1, 2026 — Critical Threats
• Iran prepared to target Israeli, US energy infrastructure if attacked — Iran International
• Iran's Proven Energy Retaliation Playbook Has Cost $58B — TechTimes
• Iran names Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Israeli energy sites as targets if Trump orders new strikes — The Tribune
• OPEC+ to raise oil production by 188,000 bpd in August — Saudi Gazette
• OPEC+ Approves 188,000 bbl/d Output Increase for August 2026 — Egypt Oil & Gas
• Middle East shipping insurance costs rise on Hormuz risks: Marsh — S&P Global
• How shipping insurance rates are rising, as Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb shut down — Al Jazeera
• War Risk Insurance 2026: Why Hormuz Transits Now Cost $1.5M-$4.5M More Per Voyage — Fairway ETA
• Iran and Oman exchange proposals to manage Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera Jul-28
• LNG Tankers Queue Off Qatar's Ras Laffan — Athens Times
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 307.7M bbl (July 24, 2026) — TheVaultReport/EIA
• Kuwait condemns Iranian drone attacks, says air defenses intercepted drones — SANA Aug-1
• Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026) — UN Press

Cycle: C244 (2026-08-02, ~24h delta from C243 Sat-Aug-1 early-CEST). Grok bridge: NO (seventeenth consecutive cycle). Full 15-query targeted web sweep.