Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-07-10 · Cycle 4 (C208)

War Day: 133 | Ceasefire: FORMALLY-COLLAPSED (Trump JUL 8 decl) | 60-day-clock BROKEN | 30-day-blockade-lift BROKEN | GL X1 wind-down clock: Day 3 of 10 (Jul 7 → Jul 17 12:01AM EDT) | Cycle: C208 (c4 of 2026-07-10, ~6-8h delta from C207 covering Fri-mid-morning-EU → Fri-mid-afternoon-EU + Fri-London-close-approach).

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes Grok_outputs folder has no HORMUZ note in last 12h (latest is April 29). Full 13-topic web sweep executed. Delta-window C207→C208 covers ~6-8h and centers on: (i) 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAEL "WILLING TO JOIN US STRIKES, WAITING FOR TRUMP OKAY" per Times of Israel Jul 10 pm-liveblog — MAJOR NEW ESCALATION-VECTOR; (ii) 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAELI-INTEL WARNING: IRAN PLOT TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP — CNN/Jerusalem Post/WSJ Jul 9-10; (iii) 🔴 SAUDI FM PRINCE FAISAL bin FARHAN ADDED to Araghchi consultation list — now Saudi/Turkey/Oman/Pakistan 4-way (not 3-way as C207); (iv) 🟡 Iran Health Ministry: 14 killed / 78 wounded from 2 days US strikes — first-casualty-count-emerges + IRNA-conflicting-8-military-deaths; (v) 🔴 Lloyd's List Intelligence formalizes 10,000-dwt threshold: no vessels above 10,000 dwt on Southern Highway with AIS on since Jul 7; (vi) 🔴 Kharg Island struck Tuesday Jul 7 — Trump Jul 8 "we knocked out a piece" formalizes retroactively; (vii) 🟢 no new US 3rd-round-strike ~24-26h; (viii) 🟢 no new IRGC Gulf-state strike C207→C208; (ix) 🟢 no new commercial-vessel-strike ~72h from Jul 7 cluster; (x) 🔴 IAEA STILL SILENT ~20h post-Bushehr-perimeter-strike-confirmation.

Baseline: C207 / 2026-07-10 c3 Fri-mid-morning-EU (BUSHEHR-IRAN-OFFICIAL-NO-DAMAGE-STATEMENT + US-OFFICIAL-AFP-DENIAL-NEW-STRIKES + ARAGHCHI-PAKISTAN-TURKEY-OMAN-CONSULTATIONS + ARAGHCHI-UPCOMING-MILITARY-OPERATION-WARNING + BRENT-$76.58-FRI-ASIA-FLAT + HORMUZ-4-DAY-AIS-NULL-US-CORRIDOR + PAKISTAN-QATAR-MEDIATION-REACTIVATION + 8-EMPTY-LNG-CARRIERS-RAS-LAFFAN + NO-NEW-STRIKES-ANY-SIDE).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-07-10 C208, Fri-mid-afternoon-EU; ~6-8h delta from C207 c3): C208 = 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAEL-WILLING-TO-JOIN-STRIKES-WAITING-TRUMP-OKAY per Times of Israel Jul 10 liveblog — Netanyahu-Zamir-Katz "not over" doctrine now paired with Israeli-operational-readiness-signal waiting on POTUS-authorization; the timing-window narrows into political-decision-tier + 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAELI-INTEL WARNING: IRAN PLOT TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP shared with US per CNN Jul 9 / Jerusalem Post / WSJ — dual-purpose signal: (a) inflames US-domestic-political-pressure against Iran; (b) some US-officials read it as Israeli-influence-effort to sway Trump toward intensified action ("skeptical of Israeli reporting") — coherent Israel-lobbying-Trump-to-intensify arc when paired with (i); + 🔴 ARAGHCHI CONSULTATION LIST EXPANDS: SAUDI FM PRINCE FAISAL bin FARHAN added per Siasat/NEWS.am/PressTV/Times of Israel — 4-way diplomatic-tier (Saudi/Turkey/Oman/Pakistan-army-chief) — Saudi FM is NEW C208 vs C207 3-way; + 🟡 IRAN HEALTH MINISTRY: 14 KILLED / 78 WOUNDED (47 hospitalized) from 2 days US strikes across 5 provinces per The Star / TASS / Vanguard / RFE-RL — first-casualty-count-emerges + IRNA-conflicting-8-military-deaths (Air Force + Navy) — internal-Iran-narrative-divergence; + 🔴 LLOYD'S LIST INTELLIGENCE FORMALIZES 10,000-DWT AIS-NULL threshold: no vessels above 10,000 dwt have transited the Southern Highway with AIS switched on since Jul 7 per Al Jazeera Jul 10 — deepens C207 4-day AIS-null with specific vessel-size threshold; + 🔴🔴 KHARG ISLAND STRUCK TUESDAY JUL 7 per Trump Jul 8 NATO summit remark "we knocked out a piece" — retroactively formalizes what was implicit in the C204-C205 kinetic-cycle — 90%-of-Iran-oil-export-terminal STRUCK (though "not oil facilities" per Trump's own qualifier); + 🟢 NO NEW US 3RD-ROUND STRIKE JUL 10 (through mid-afternoon-EU) — 24-26h relative-kinetic-pause on US-side; + 🟢 NO NEW IRGC GULF-STATE STRIKE C207→C208 — kinetic-wave-cycle pause continues; + 🟢 NO NEW COMMERCIAL-VESSEL-STRIKE C207→C208 — ~72h clean since Jul 6-7 cluster (Al Rekayyat / Wedyan / Cyprus Prosperity); + 🔴 IAEA STILL SILENT ~20h post-Bushehr-perimeter-strike-confirmation; + 🔴 UNSC RES 2817 enforcement-mechanism SILENT — no follow-through action. Ten-plus material C207→C208 datapoints refine ~6-8h post-shallow-pause-cycle arc: (1) 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAEL WILLING-TO-JOIN-STRIKES-WAITING-TRUMP-OKAY. (2) 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAELI-INTEL IRAN-PLOT-TO-ASSASSINATE-TRUMP. (3) 🔴 ARAGHCHI 4-WAY DIPLOMATIC LIST — SAUDI FM ADDED. (4) 🟡 IRAN HEALTH MINISTRY 14-KILLED-78-WOUNDED CASUALTY-COUNT. (5) 🔴 LLOYD'S LIST 10,000-DWT AIS-NULL FORMALIZATION. (6) 🔴🔴 KHARG-ISLAND-STRUCK RETROACTIVE FORMALIZATION. (7) 🟢 NO NEW US 3RD-ROUND STRIKE ~24-26H. (8) 🟢 NO NEW IRGC GULF-STATE STRIKE C207→C208. (9) 🟢 NO NEW COMMERCIAL-VESSEL-STRIKE ~72H. (10) 🔴 IAEA + UNSC RES 2817 BOTH SILENT ~20H. Net: C208 IS THE POST-SHALLOW-PAUSE + ISRAELI-ESCALATION-VECTOR-OPENING CYCLE. The 24-26h kinetic-pause (US 3rd-round + IRGC-Gulf-state + commercial-vessel) that C207 opened continues, but ISRAEL emerges as the new escalation-vector: (a) operational-readiness-signal to join US strikes waiting POTUS-authorization; (b) intel-tier warning of Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump inflames US-political-decision-space; (c) some US-officials read (b) as Israeli-influence-effort to sway (a). Simultaneously, Iran's dual-track holds: Araghchi expands diplomatic consultation-list to 4-way (Saudi/Turkey/Oman/Pakistan) while parallel military-operation-warning carries. Traffic-tier deepens further via Lloyd's-List formal 10,000-dwt-AIS-null threshold. First Iran-casualty-count from 2-day US-strikes emerges (14 dead, 78 wounded) — modest by war-standards but internal-narrative-divergence between Health Ministry and IRNA is a signal. Structural locks stay tight; nuclear-tier ambiguity holds via IAEA-silence; Kharg-Island struck-retroactive-formalization confirms US already crossed the export-terminal threshold Trump has been threatening publicly. C208 opens the Israel-lobbying-Trump-to-intensify vector — this is the key escalation risk into Sat-Asia-open. Critical 0-24h to Sat-Asia-open: (a) Whether Trump green-lights Israel-joining-strikes; (b) Whether US 3rd-round-strike materializes Fri-night after 24-26h pause; (c) Whether Israel operationalizes Netanyahu/Zamir "major operations ahead" — 24h from declaration; (d) Whether IRGC executes "electricity for electricity" against Israel-power-grid; (e) IAEA formal statement on Bushehr — silent-through-20h+ now; (f) Whether Trump publicly reacts to Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump warning; (g) Whether Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi-Saudi 4-way channel produces concrete de-escalation-signal; (h) Araghchi-signaled "upcoming military operation" execution; (i) Sat-Asia oil-open + Brent $80-breach window; (j) Al Rekayyat salvage completion + explosion-tail-risk; (k) 8-empty-LNG-carriers Ras Laffan actual-loading over-weekend; (l) UNSC Res 2817 enforcement mechanism follow-through; (m) OPEC emergency-session response to Kharg-formalization + Bushehr-perimeter; (n) Erdogan/Turkish Fidan formal mediation-offer; (o) Whether Mojtaba first-appearance materializes.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C207 → C208 DELTAS)

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAEL WILLING TO JOIN US STRIKES ON IRAN — WAITING FOR TRUMP OKAY per Times of Israel Jul 10 liveblog + Pravda-Trump Jul 9. MAJOR NEW ESCALATION VECTOR C208. Netanyahu-Zamir-Katz "not over" doctrine now paired with Israeli-operational-readiness-signal waiting on POTUS-authorization. Timing-window from Netanyahu-Zamir declaration narrows into political-decision-tier — no longer purely rhetorical.

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 ISRAELI-INTEL WARNING: IRAN PLOT TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP shared with US per CNN Jul 9 / Jerusalem Post / WSJ / Times of Israel. Dual-purpose signal: (i) inflames US-domestic-political-pressure against Iran; (ii) some US-officials read as Israeli-influence-effort to sway Trump toward intensified action — CNN quotes "skeptical of Israeli reporting" from intel-community. Coherent Israel-lobbying-Trump-to-intensify arc when paired with willingness-to-join-strikes signal.

• 🔴 ARAGHCHI DIPLOMATIC CONSULTATION LIST EXPANDS to 4-way: Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan + Turkish FM Fidan + Omani FM Al Busaidi + Pakistan army chief Munir per Siasat / NEWS.am / PressTV / Times of Israel. SAUDI FM NEW C208 vs C207 3-way (Pakistan/Turkey/Oman). Saudi-diplomatic-channel opens parallel to Saudi-tanker-Wedyan-damage still-uncommented-officially by Riyadh.

• 🟡 IRAN HEALTH MINISTRY casualty-count: 14 killed / 78 wounded (47 hospitalized) from 2 days of US strikes across 5 provinces per The Star / TASS / Vanguard / Just Security / RFE-RL. First official Iran-casualty-count from Jul 8-9 US-strike-wave. IRNA-conflicting-count: 8 military deaths (Air Force + Navy) with zero civilian-casualties reported — internal-Iran-narrative-divergence signal.

• 🔴 LLOYD'S LIST INTELLIGENCE FORMALIZES 10,000-DWT AIS-NULL THRESHOLD: "No vessels above 10,000 dwt have transited the so-called Southern Highway with their AIS switched on since July 7, although at least two ships are believed to have crossed dark" per Al Jazeera Jul 10 / Bloomberg Jul 9 / World Oil. Deepens C207 4-day AIS-null with vessel-size specificity — small-vessel-transit may continue but large-vessel-tier is empirically zero on US-corridor.

• 🔴🔴 KHARG ISLAND STRUCK TUESDAY JUL 7 — RETROACTIVE FORMALIZATION per Trump Jul 8 NATO-summit remarks: "We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece" — but "avoided its oil facilities" per Trump-qualifier. 90%-of-Iran-crude-export-terminal STRUCK — implicit in C204-C205 kinetic-cycle now explicit. Kharg-tier crossed without market-disruption because oil-facilities avoided.

• 🟢 NO NEW US 3RD-ROUND STRIKE JUL 10 (through mid-afternoon-EU) — 24-26h relative-kinetic-pause on US-side. AFP-denial (C207) continues to be borne out empirically.

• 🟢 NO NEW IRGC GULF-STATE STRIKE C207→C208 — kinetic-wave-cycle pause continues (~30h clean since Jul 8-9 4-Gulf-state strike wave).

• 🟢 NO NEW COMMERCIAL-VESSEL-STRIKE C207→C208 — ~72h clean since Jul 6-7 cluster (Al Rekayyat / Wedyan / Cyprus Prosperity). Al Rekayyat continues awaiting salvage.

• 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA STILL SILENT ~20h POST-BUSHEHR-PERIMETER-STRIKE-CONFIRMATION — no formal statement, no inspection request, no independent verification of Iran-informed-official "no damage" or US-official-AFP-denial-of-new-strikes. Silence itself deepens.

• 🔴 UNSC RES 2817 enforcement-mechanism SILENT C207→C208 — no coalition follow-through action.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 133 / Ceasefire FORMALLY-COLLAPSED (C205 Trump Jul 8 decl) / 60-day-clock BROKEN / 30-day-blockade-lift BROKEN / GL X1 wind-down Day 3 of 10. C207 → C208 (~6-8h delta): ISRAEL-WILLING-TO-JOIN-STRIKES-WAITING-TRUMP-OKAY + ISRAELI-INTEL-IRAN-PLOT-TO-ASSASSINATE-TRUMP + ARAGHCHI-4-WAY-SAUDI-ADDED + IRAN-HEALTH-MINISTRY-14-KILLED-78-WOUNDED + LLOYD'S-LIST-10K-DWT-AIS-NULL + KHARG-STRUCK-RETROACTIVE-FORMALIZATION + 24-26H-NO-NEW-STRIKES-US + 30H-NO-NEW-IRGC-GULF-STATE + 72H-NO-NEW-COMMERCIAL-VESSEL + IAEA/UNSC-BOTH-SILENT-20H.

Cross-leg status (C208):

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US direct-leg — PAUSE-CONTINUES-24-26H: no new US 3rd-round-strike C208; Iran-Health-Ministry-14-killed-78-wounded first-casualty-count; Kharg-Island-struck retroactively-formalized (Trump Jul 8 "knocked out a piece"); Araghchi diplomatic pivot + parallel-military-operation-warning carries
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Israel direct-leg — NEW ESCALATION-VECTOR OPENS: Israel willing to join US strikes waiting Trump okay per Times of Israel; Israeli-intel warning Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump; Netanyahu-Zamir "not over" carries; NO FORMAL ISRAELI KINETIC RE-ENGAGEMENT C208 — but political-authorization-window narrows
• 🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Commercial-tier kinetic-leg: Al-Rekayyat awaits salvage still; NO NEW C208 commercial-vessel-strike (~72h clean); chilling-effect via traffic-halt DEEPENS via Lloyd's-List 10K-dwt AIS-null formalization
• 🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US blockade-leg: GL X1 wind-down Day 3 of 10 (Jul 17 12:01AM EDT terminus); 60-day-clock BROKEN; 30-day-blockade-lift BROKEN; NO C208 modification
• 🔴🔴🔴 Iran-US rhetorical-leg: Trump Kharg + desalination-specificity carries; Araghchi "upcoming military operation" + "against US military adventurism" carries; Netanyahu-Zamir "not over" carries
• 🔴🔴🔴 Iran-Multi-Gulf-state kinetic-leg: strike-site-names formalized (C206) carries; NO NEW MULTI-GULF STRIKES C208 (~30h clean); kinetic-wave-cycle pause holds
• 🟢 Israel-Lebanon-leg: Lebanon 13-day-post-kinetic hold as of Jul 10; NO fresh Lebanon-signal C207→C208
• 🔴🔴🔴 Qatar (Ras Laffan + AL REKAYYAT + Doha-Qatar-EW): all C207 carries; Al Rekayyat salvage-pending confirmed by gCaptain / Insurance Journal / Zawya / MarineLink / New Arab / US News; 8-empty-LNG-carriers loading-days confirmed by OilPrice / Athens Times / Kpler / TradeWinds; Pakistan-Qatar mediation-reactivation carries
• 🔴🔴 Saudi: 🔴 SAUDI FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan added to Araghchi consultation-list NEW C208 per Siasat / NEWS.am; Saudi-tanker Wedyan-damage carries; no fresh Saudi-official-response C208
• 🔴🔴 Kuwait: 3-ballistic + 1-cruise + 10-drones intercepted / 1-injured-stable carry; Arifjan + Ali Al Salem strike-sites CARRY; NO NEW Kuwait-strike C208
• 🔴🔴 Bahrain: fuel-tanks-targeted + air-raid-sirens carry; Juffair + Sheikh Isa strike-sites CARRY; NO NEW Bahrain-strike C208
• 🔴🔴🔴 Jordan (C205 NEW-STATE): Azraq military base 10-ballistic-missile-target CARRY; NO NEW Jordan-strike C208; Jordan casualty-count STILL PENDING
• ⚠️🔴 Yemen/Red Sea-leg CLAIM-TIER: Houthi Jul-1 168h empirical-null still holds; Jul-5 UKMTO-cargo-vessel-attack 30nm-SW-of-Al-Hudaydah carry; NO fresh C207→C208 Houthi-tier
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 UNSC Mediation TIER: Resolution 2817 (C206) CARRIES; NO NEW UNSC ACTION C208; enforcement mechanism silent ~20h+
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Nuclear-tier — RED-LINE ADJACENCY: C206 Bushehr-perimeter-strike-CONFIRMED carries + Iran-informed-official "no damage" C207 CONTAINMENT carries + 🔴 KHARG-STRUCK-RETROACTIVE-FORMALIZATION C208 — Trump Jul 8 NATO-summit "we attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece" + "avoided oil facilities"; nuclear-tier-adjacency remains; IAEA STILL SILENT ~20h
• 🔴 Turkey-mediator-tier: Erdogan-hosted-NATO-summit (C204) carries; Turkish FM Fidan "high-level talks" per CGTN / Araghchi-Turkey consultation carries; Turkey NOT formal mediator per Wikipedia — Pakistan-Qatar-Saudi(NEW C208) primary
• 🔴 Israel-influence-tier NEW C208: Israeli-intel warning Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump some-US-officials read as Israeli-effort-to-sway-Trump toward intensified action per CNN "skeptical of Israeli reporting"

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Times of Israel liveblog: Israel willing to join US strikes on Iran, waiting for Trump okay
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CNN / Jerusalem Post / WSJ / Times of Israel: Israel shared intelligence with US of Iranian plot to assassinate Trump — some US-officials skeptical, view as Israeli-influence-effort
• 🔴 Araghchi phone-consultation-list expands to 4-way: Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan + Turkish FM Fidan + Omani FM Al Busaidi + Pakistan army chief Munir
• 🟡 Iran Health Ministry: 14 killed / 78 wounded (47 hospitalized) from 2 days US strikes across 5 provinces per spokesman Hossein Kermanpour; IRNA conflicting-8-military-deaths (Air Force + Navy)
• 🔴 Al Jazeera / Bloomberg / World Oil: Lloyd's List Intelligence — no vessels above 10,000 dwt transited Southern Highway with AIS on since Jul 7; at least 2 ships crossed dark
• 🔴 The Hill / Washington Examiner / Al Jazeera / Bloomberg: Trump Jul 8 NATO summit "We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece"; "avoided oil facilities"
• 🟢 No new US 3rd-round strike C207→C208 (~24-26h relative-kinetic-pause)
• 🟢 No new IRGC Gulf-state strike C207→C208 (~30h clean)
• 🟢 No new commercial-vessel-strike C207→C208 (~72h clean since Jul 6-7 cluster)
• 🔴 IAEA STILL SILENT ~20h post-Bushehr-perimeter-strike-confirmation
• 🔴 UNSC Res 2817 enforcement-mechanism silent — no coalition follow-through
• 🟡 Al Rekayyat salvage-pending confirmed; tug + service ship still nearby; LNG tanks intact; no explosion
• 🟡 QatarEnergy 8 empty LNG carriers at Ras Laffan carry — additional confirmation from Athens Times / Kpler / TradeWinds

• Iran civilians killed: Foundation of Martyrs 3,468 / HRANA 3,636 / up to 6,000+ US-Israeli estimates carry + 🟡 Iran Health Ministry NEW: 14 killed / 78 wounded (47 hospitalized) from Jul 8-9 US strikes across 5 provinces; IRNA CONFLICTING: 8 military deaths (Air Force + Navy) with zero civilian casualties — internal-Iran-narrative-divergence-signal
• Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs CARRY; pending re-assessment
• US KIA/wounded: 15 / 543 CARRY (no new C208 US-KIA reported)
• Israel: 40 IDF KIA + 28-29 civilians = 69 + 9,161 injured CARRY (Israel-non-kinetic C207→C208 — but political-authorization-window narrows)
• Kuwait: 10 + 4 KIA + 7 civilians + 78 + 104 injured + 1 stable CARRY (no new C208)
• Bahrain: 3 + 51 injured CARRY + PENDING C207 fuel-tank casualty-update still not surfaced
• Qatar: 13 KIA + 66 + 54 injured + 18 missing + 1 Qatar citizen CARRY + Al Rekayyat crew safe + Qatar EW-system-strike PENDING casualty-update
• Jordan: NEW-STATE (C205) — Azraq base 10-ballistic-missile-target CARRY — casualty-count still PENDING
• Iraq: 119+ CARRY; UAE: 13 CARRY; Saudi: 3 + 29 injured CARRY
• Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 49+ attacks / 14 fatalities — no new C207→C208 seafarer deaths
• Lebanon: 4,057+ killed / 12,121 wounded CARRY (13-day-post-kinetic hold as of Jul-10)
• Cross-source total: 7,144-9,676+ killed CARRY; ~46,965 injured CARRY

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log (cumulative since Feb 28)

Running total: 49+ attacks (unchanged from C207) + 14 fatalities (IMO cumulative — no new C207→C208). C208 DELTA: 🟢 NO NEW COMMERCIAL-VESSEL-STRIKE JUL-10 through mid-afternoon-EU (~72h clean since Al Rekayyat / Saudi-tanker / 3rd-ship cluster of Jul 6-7); Al Rekayyat continues awaiting salvage (no completion confirm C208, no explosion realized).

IRGC friendly-fire incidents: No new C207→C208.

4. Oil Prices

Analyst forecasts (this cycle):

• 🟢 Al Jazeera Jul-10: "oil prices largely held steady on Friday" — Brent $76.58 05:00 GMT
• 🔴 Forbes Jul-9: "Hormuz Risk Is Back: Why The Market Is Wrong On Energy" (Yildiz) — market-underpricing-thesis
• 🟢 Bloomberg framing: prices remain elevated but market absorbing shock without $80-breach ~24-26h into cease-collapse-deepen-shallow-pause arc
• 🟢 TradingKey WTI $60 forecast — now floor-tested by cease-collapse but $71-73 Fri-close remains above forecast
• 🔴 Goldman $80 Q4 Brent cut carry — under stress-test but not stress-realized C208
• 🔴 LiteFinance $67.93-71.84 range — WTI $71.74 close within upper-bound
• 🔴 Forbes Advisor / Fortune / Barchart: WTI $72-73 range Jul 8-9 tracking

• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Times of Israel: Israel willing to join US strikes on Iran, waiting for Trump okay per Jul 10 liveblog
• 🔴🔴🔴🔴 CNN / Jerusalem Post / WSJ: Israeli-intel warning of Iran plot to assassinate Trump — some US-officials skeptical, view as Israeli-influence-effort
• 🔴 Araghchi phone-consultation-list expands to 4-way: Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan added per Siasat / NEWS.am / PressTV
• 🟡 Iran Health Ministry: 14 killed / 78 wounded (47 hospitalized) from 2 days US strikes across 5 provinces per The Star / TASS / Vanguard / RFE-RL
• 🔴 Lloyd's List Intelligence 10,000-dwt AIS-null formalization per Al Jazeera / Bloomberg / World Oil
• 🔴🔴 Trump Jul 8 NATO summit retroactive-formalization: "We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece" + "avoided oil facilities" per The Hill / Washington Examiner / Al Jazeera / Bloomberg

5. SPR

IEA coordinated release status:

6. Bypass Infrastructure

7. Maritime Insurance

8. Shadow Fleet

• 🔴🔴🔴 OFAC GL X1 WIND-DOWN DAY 3 OF 10 — Iran-oil-authorization revoked Jul 7; wind-down by Jul 17 12:01AM EDT; all activity previously authorized under GL X to wind down within 10 days
• 🟢 OFAC 19 vessels + Hengli Petrochemical Dalian teapot + ~40 shipping firms cumulative carries
• 🔴 Ghalibaf: Iran exported 40M+ barrels since Jun 18 at 20% premium carry — NOW LEGALLY-BLOCKED VIA GL X1
• 🔴 TASS/Bloomberg UP TO 68M BARRELS IRANIAN OIL AFLOAT carry
• 🔴 Iran's oil exports fell more than 90% in May per Kharon carry
• 🟢 State Department cumulative sanctions carry
• No fresh GRU/Wagner militarization signal C207→C208
• No fresh IRGC friendly-fire incident C207→C208
• Shadow fleet size confirmed 1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet) baseline carry
• 🔴 Houthi Jul-1 4-claims 168h empirical-null FULL-LOCK carry (still holds — no fresh UKMTO/MARAD confirmation)
• 🔴🔴🔴 Iran-4-Gulf-state kinetic-wave Jul 8-9 confirms IRGC-operational-independence carry
• 🔴🔴 China-shadow-fleet-tanker-behavior — TEAPOT-REFINERY-PRE-TERMINUS-LOADING PRESSURE CARRY C208 — Jul-17-wind-down-window pressures pre-terminus loading; teapot-refinery-import-tier may accelerate through Jul-17
• 🟢 Al Hamla → China 9-day-empirical-still-pending as of C208
• 🔴 KHARG-ISLAND-STRUCK JUL 7 retroactive-formalization — export-terminal-tier crossed but "avoided oil facilities" per Trump-qualifier; if Trump-qualifier holds, Kharg-90%-terminal remains operational; if breached, Iran-oil-export-tier collapses

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy Actions

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

1. 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Israel willing to join US strikes on Iran, waiting for Trump okay per Times of Israel Jul 10 liveblog + Pravda-Trump Jul 9. MAJOR NEW ESCALATION VECTOR C208. Netanyahu-Zamir-Katz "not over" doctrine now paired with Israeli-operational-readiness-signal awaiting POTUS-authorization. Timing-window from Netanyahu-Zamir declaration (~24-30h old) narrows into political-decision-tier — no longer purely rhetorical.

1. 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Israeli-intel warning: Iran plot to assassinate Trump shared with US per CNN Jul 9 / Jerusalem Post / WSJ / Times of Israel. Dual-purpose signal: (i) inflames US-domestic-political-pressure against Iran; (ii) some US-officials skeptical, view as Israeli-influence-effort to sway Trump toward intensified action ("skeptical of Israeli reporting"). Coherent Israel-lobbying-Trump-to-intensify arc when paired with (1).

1. 🔴 Araghchi diplomatic consultation list EXPANDS to 4-way: Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan + Turkish FM Fidan + Omani FM Al Busaidi + Pakistan army chief Munir per Siasat / NEWS.am / PressTV / Times of Israel. Saudi FM NEW C208 vs C207 3-way. Saudi-diplomatic-channel opens parallel to still-uncommented-officially Saudi-tanker-Wedyan-damage. Iran's Persian-diplomatic-classic dual-track continues (consultations + parallel military-operation-warning).

1. 🟡 Iran Health Ministry casualty-count: 14 killed / 78 wounded (47 hospitalized) from 2 days of US strikes across 5 provinces per The Star / TASS / Vanguard / Just Security / RFE-RL. First-official Iran-casualty-count from Jul 8-9 US-strike-wave. IRNA-conflicting-count: 8 military deaths (Air Force + Navy) with zero civilian-casualties reported — internal-Iran-narrative-divergence signal (moderate spokespersons vs hardline IRNA).

1. 🔴 Lloyd's List Intelligence formalizes 10,000-dwt AIS-null threshold: "No vessels above 10,000 dwt have transited the so-called Southern Highway with their AIS switched on since July 7, although at least two ships are believed to have crossed dark" per Al Jazeera Jul 10 / Bloomberg Jul 9 / World Oil. Deepens C207 4-day AIS-null with specific vessel-size threshold — small-vessel-transit may continue but large-vessel-tier is empirically zero on US-corridor.

1. 🔴🔴 Kharg Island struck Tuesday Jul 7 — retroactive-formalization per Trump Jul 8 NATO-summit remarks per The Hill / Washington Examiner / Al Jazeera / Bloomberg: "We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece" — but "avoided its oil facilities" per Trump-qualifier. 90%-of-Iran-crude-export-terminal STRUCK — implicit in C204-C205 kinetic-cycle now explicit at C208. Kharg-tier crossed without market-disruption because oil-facilities-avoided (per Trump).

1. 🟢 No new US 3rd-round-strike Jul-10 through mid-afternoon-EU — 24-26h relative-kinetic-pause on US-side. AFP-denial (C207) borne-out empirically.

1. 🟢 No new IRGC Gulf-state strike C207→C208 — kinetic-wave-cycle pause continues (~30h clean since Jul 8-9 4-Gulf-state strike wave).

1. 🟢 No new commercial-vessel-strike C207→C208 — ~72h clean since Jul 6-7 cluster (Al Rekayyat / Wedyan / Cyprus Prosperity). Al Rekayyat continues awaiting salvage — tanks intact, tug + service ship nearby.

1. 🔴🔴🔴 IAEA STILL SILENT ~20h post-Bushehr-perimeter-strike-confirmation — no formal statement, no inspection request, no independent verification of Iran-informed-official "no damage" or US-official-AFP-denial-of-new-strikes. Silence itself deepens.

1. 🔴 UNSC Res 2817 enforcement-mechanism SILENT C207→C208 — no coalition follow-through action.

1. 🟡 8 empty LNG carriers at Ras Laffan "set to load in coming days" per OilPrice — additional-sourcing confirmed via Athens Times / Kpler / TradeWinds. Kpler notes 10-day-average of LNG exports has more-than-doubled over past month but remains ~80% below last-year's-level — mixed recovery-trajectory.

(b) Structural Locks Status

• Lock 1 (Price): 🟢 HOLDING — Brent $76-77 range through Fri-mid-day-EU; no $80-breach; market absorbs shock cleanly aided by 24-26h no-new-US-strike + Trump-qualifier "avoided oil facilities" at Kharg + Iran-informed-official-Bushehr-no-damage + US-AFP-denial + Pakistan-Qatar-mediation-reactivation + Araghchi-4-way-diplomatic + OPEC+ 188K-Aug + Saudi-Aramco-$11-cut + 8-empty-LNG-carriers-latent-recovery. Continues holding from C207; $80-breach window still live for Fri-London-close + Sat-Asia if Trump-green-lights-Israel-join + pause-cycle-breakers materialize.

• Lock 2 (Supply): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING-HARDEST — Lloyd's-List Intelligence 10K-dwt-AIS-null-formalization deepens de-facto full-closure; Omani corridor grinding-to-halt; 2 ships crossed dark; GL X1 wind-down Day 3 of 10 formalizes Iran-supply-removal (Jul-17-terminus); Kharg-Island-struck retroactive-formalization + "avoided oil facilities" preserves current-export-tier but crosses political-red-line. Upgrade from TIGHTENING-HARDER to TIGHTENING-HARDEST via Lloyd's-List-formalization + Kharg-retro-explicit.

• Lock 3 (Insurance): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARDEST — Day 97 P&I absence; war-risk-premiums 2-6% of vessel value + double-digit-millions-per-trip Lloyd's-List + S&P Global 1%-per-7-day-Persian-Gulf (8x pre-war) consolidated; underwriter-formal-pause-advisories persist; re-entry-probability remains zero. Bushehr-perimeter-strike + UNSC-Res-2817 + IRGC-formal-counter-doctrine + Lloyd's-List-10K-null + Kharg-formalization + Israel-willing-to-join further reinforce withdrawal rationale.

• Lock 4 (Labor): 🔴🔴 TIGHTENING — Lloyd's-List-10K-dwt-null + at-least-2-ships-crossed-dark + QatarEnergy-LNG-carrier-reversals validate safety-concern hardest; crew-refusal-rate spike-continues; IMO evacuation-paused 400H+ carries reinforced.

• Lock 5 (Duration): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARDEST — All C207 septuple-veto carries + Araghchi parallel-military-operation-warning extends doctrinal-tier + Pakistan-Qatar mediation-reactivation opens partial-loosening-vector + Araghchi 4-way diplomatic-expand C208 opens Saudi-channel — but all subordinate to structural veto-cluster + Israel-willing-to-join opens NEW escalation-vector. Netanyahu + Zamir + Katz "major operations ahead" timing-window narrows into political-decision-tier.

• Lock 6 (Nuclear): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING (continues C207 status) — Bushehr NPP perimeter officially struck per C206 carries + Iran-informed-official "no damage" C207 CONTAINMENT-SIGNAL carries + US-official AFP-denial-of-new-strikes carries; IAEA C-cycle-ND still holds — silent through 20h+. No net-change C207→C208 on nuclear-tier despite Kharg-retro-formalization (Kharg is oil-terminal not nuclear).

• Lock 7 (Geographic): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING — C206 4-Gulf-state kinetic + strike-site-names formalization carries; Israel declared-continuation-tier holds + Israel-willing-to-join escalation-vector opens; Lebanon 13-day-post-kinetic hold as of Jul-10; UNSC-Res-2817 formalizes multilateral-condemnation-tier carries. No new geographic-expansion C208 kinetic; Araghchi Saudi/Turkey/Oman/Pakistan 4-way expands diplomatic-tier geographic-scope.

• Lock 8 (Capability): 🟡 HOLDING — Vance-deconfliction-cell muted; no fresh minesweeping deployment; US-no-dedicated-minesweepers-in-theater carry; Kuwait/Bahrain intercept-successes demonstrate capability-tier still functions on defensive-side.

• Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING HARDEST — DEEPENS FURTHER — Hormuz tier FULL-CLOSURE-EFFECTIVE deepens via Lloyd's-List-10K-dwt-AIS-null-formalization + 2 ships crossed dark; Houthi Jul-1 168h empirical-null full-lock carry (still holds). Dual-chokepoint architecture BOTH-active-simultaneously at full-effect-formalized-tier.

• Lock 10 (Leadership): 🔴 HOLDING — Khamenei Mashhad final burial completed Jul 9; Mojtaba BARRED first-appearance-window MISSING through C208; three-sons-visible + Mojtaba-invisible carries. Iran-Deputy-FM speaking without supreme-leader-clarity carry. Araghchi 4-way diplomatic-expand suggests Foreign-Ministry-empowerment-signal strengthens; internal-Iran-narrative-divergence (Health Ministry vs IRNA) may signal regime-stress or moderate-hardline-divergence.

• Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): 🔴🔴🔴 TIGHTENING-HARDER — Al Rekayyat awaits salvage still (LNG tanks intact — no explosion); Qatar early-warning-system + Bahrain fuel-tanks strike-site-name-confirmed carries; Bushehr NPP perimeter struck + Kharg-Island-struck-Jul-7-retroactive-formalization = 5th-Gulf-infra-strike-cluster + nuclear-adjacent + Iran-export-terminal all struck; "avoided oil facilities" per Trump-qualifier preserves Iran-oil-export-tier for now but political-red-line crossed. QatarEnergy 4th-month force-majeure + Edison-mid-Aug carries; 8-empty-LNG-carriers-Ras-Laffan-loading-intent-vs-2-QatarEnergy-carriers-reversed = mixed-recovery-signal carries. Upgrade from TIGHTENING to TIGHTENING-HARDER via Kharg-retro-formalization.

(c) Critical Watch (next 24-96h)

1. 🔴🔴🔴🔴 Trump-decision on Israel-join-strikes green-light — key escalation-tipping-point
2. Trump public-reaction to Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump warning
3. Whether US 3rd-round-strike materializes Fri-night despite 24-26h pause + US-AFP-denial
4. Israel operationalization of Netanyahu-Zamir-Katz "major operations lie ahead" post political-authorization
5. IRGC operationalization of "electricity for electricity" counter-doctrine — Israel-power-grid target
6. IAEA formal statement on Bushehr-perimeter-strike — silent-through-20h+ now
7. IAEA inspection-request to Bushehr NPP per Iran-informed-official "no damage" statement — verification test
8. Whether Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi-Saudi 4-way channel produces any concrete de-escalation-signal
9. Araghchi-signaled "upcoming military operation" — timing + scope
10. Iran-parliament-Council-of-Guardians formal Hormuz-closure-decision from advisory-only
11. Whether Bushehr-informed-official "no-damage" statement holds under IAEA-scrutiny
12. Sat-Asia oil-open + Brent $80-breach window
13. Al Rekayyat salvage completion + explosion-tail-risk realization
14. 8-empty-LNG-carriers Ras Laffan actual-loading over-weekend
15. Any new tanker attacks Fri-Sat
16. UNSC Res 2817 enforcement mechanism follow-through
17. OPEC emergency-session response to UNSC + Bushehr-perimeter-strike + Kharg-formalization + Israel-willing-to-join
18. Fri-London-close price movement — sustained pullback or rebound
19. Any P&I formal re-withdrawal notice or Lloyd's-London-market retraction
20. QatarEnergy 5th-month force-majeure extension announcement
21. Iraq-Turkey formal K-C 12-mo-deal signing (Bayraktar "coming days") — 17 days to formal expiry
22. GL X1 wind-down operational deadline Jul 17 — 7 days
23. VLCC day-rate repricing under war-risk-2-6%
24. Wright/DOE any SPR release-announcement despite silence-carry
25. Iran-China teapot-refinery pre-wind-down surge or pull-back
26. Any Iran deployment of naval-mines Hormuz
27. Whether Iran declares Bushehr-perimeter-strike or Kharg-strike as red-line-crossed triggering nuclear-doctrine-tier response
28. Erdogan / Turkish Fidan formal mediation-offer beyond informal-high-level-talks
29. Any Russia-China joint diplomatic-intervention
30. Whether Mojtaba first-appearance materializes post-Mashhad-barring
31. Whether Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump warning is vetted independently by US-intel or dismissed
32. Whether Israel-influence-vector (via intel-warning + willing-to-join) is confirmed as coherent-lobbying-arc
33. Whether Iran-Health-Ministry vs IRNA casualty-count-divergence deepens (internal-regime-stress signal)
34. Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan any formal-statement post-Araghchi-consultation

(d) Net Assessment

C208 documents the ~6-8h POST-SHALLOW-PAUSE-CONTINUES + ISRAELI-ESCALATION-VECTOR-OPENING + DIPLOMATIC-4-WAY-EXPANDING cycle — the day-after-the-day-after-the-morning-after of the ceasefire-over declaration. In the ~6-8 hours since C207, the kinetic-pause window that opened at C207 has extended to ~24-26h (US 3rd-round), ~30h (IRGC Gulf-state), and ~72h (commercial-vessel), while Israel emerged as a NEW escalation-vector via two intertwined signals: (i) Times of Israel Jul 10 liveblog reports Israel is willing to join US strikes on Iran and is waiting for Trump's okay; (ii) Israeli intelligence shared with the US a warning of an Iran plot to assassinate Trump, per CNN/Jerusalem Post/WSJ Jul 9-10 — some US officials are "skeptical of Israeli reporting" and view this as an Israeli effort to sway Trump's decision-making. Together these two signals form a coherent Israel-lobbying-Trump-to-intensify arc that is now the primary escalation-tipping-point into Sat-Asia-open.

Simultaneously, Iran's diplomatic track EXPANDED to 4-way — Foreign Minister Araghchi's phone-consultation-list now includes Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan (NEW C208), Turkish FM Fidan, Omani FM Al Busaidi, and Pakistan army chief Munir — while parallel military-operation-warning holds. The Saudi-channel-opening is significant: Saudi Arabia has not formally responded to the Wedyan-tanker-damage of Jul 7 and now enters the diplomatic-consultation-tier. Iran's Persian-diplomatic-classic dual-track — consultations + parallel military-threat — buys time while preserving strike-option. The Iran Health Ministry (Kermanpour) released the first casualty-count from the Jul 8-9 US-strike-wave: 14 killed / 78 wounded (47 hospitalized) across 5 provinces — modest by war-standards, but IRNA published a conflicting count (8 military deaths, zero civilian) that signals internal-narrative-divergence between moderate spokespersons and hardline state-media.

Traffic-tier DEEPENED FURTHER via Lloyd's List Intelligence's formal 10,000-dwt AIS-null threshold: no vessels above 10,000 dwt have transited the Southern Highway with AIS on since July 7 (~3.5 days at C208), with at least two ships crossed dark. This is the sharpest measurement yet of Hormuz's de-facto full-closure state at the large-vessel-tier. Meanwhile, Kharg Island was retroactively formalized as struck Tuesday Jul 7 — Trump's Jul 8 NATO-summit remark "we attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece" plus qualifier "avoided oil facilities" — meaning the 90%-of-Iran-crude-export-terminal has been crossed as a political red-line even though the oil-terminal-tier itself remains operational per Trump's own qualifier.

Brent held practically flat at $76-77 through Fri-mid-day-EU (Fri-Asia-open $76.58 05:00 GMT) — no $80-breach — as the market absorbed the cumulative Kharg-formalization + Israel-willing-to-join + Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump-warning + Lloyd's-List-10K-null shock through 24-26h kinetic-pause + Trump-qualifier "avoided oil facilities" + Araghchi 4-way diplomatic-consultations + Pakistan-Qatar-mediation-reactivation + OPEC+ 188K-Aug + Saudi-Aramco-$11-cut. Market-pricing continues to under-weight the Israel-escalation-vector opening.

Structural-locks pattern (C208): 1 loosening / 2 holding / 8 tightening — same aggregate as C207 but with intra-lock movement. Lock 2 (Supply) upgrades from TIGHTENING-HARDER to TIGHTENING-HARDEST via Lloyd's-List-formalization + Kharg-retro-explicit. Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure) upgrades from TIGHTENING to TIGHTENING-HARDER via Kharg-retro-formalization. Lock 5 (Duration) intra-lock re-balance — Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi 4-way opens partial-loosening-vector but Israel-willing-to-join opens NEW escalation-vector; net-carry TIGHTENING-HARDEST. Locks 3 (Insurance) + 5 (Duration) + 9 (Dual Chokepoint) continue tightening-HARDEST simultaneously.

Trajectory absent intervention: The Israel-escalation-vector opening is the C208 story-line. The kinetic-pause is holding on all 3 leg-directions (US-3rd-round, IRGC-Gulf-state, commercial-vessel) but the political-authorization-decision at the White House on Israel-joining-strikes is the primary escalation-tipping-point. Iran's 4-way diplomatic-expand + parallel-military-warning reads as Persian-diplomatic-classic (buy time + preserve strike-option). The Bushehr-informed-official "no damage" + US-official AFP-denial + Kharg "avoided oil facilities" together create a mutually-convenient factual-ambiguity-window that lets all sides climb down from the C206 nuclear-tier-adjacency + C208 export-terminal-adjacency without either formally admitting the strike or retracting the claim — but the political-red-lines have been crossed regardless. Whether the war re-enters second-week-of-war-tier kinetic-scale depends primarily on: (a) whether Trump green-lights Israel-joining-strikes — this is now the primary tipping-point; (b) whether US executes a 3rd-round strike Fri-night despite the 24-26h pause; (c) whether Israel operationalizes Netanyahu-Zamir "major operations lie ahead" post-authorization; (d) whether IRGC executes "electricity for electricity" retaliation against Israel-power-grid; (e) whether IAEA confirms any core-Bushehr-damage or radiation-release or requests inspection; (f) whether Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi-Saudi 4-way channel produces concrete de-escalation signal or dissolves as diplomatic-cover; (g) whether UNSC Res 2817 triggers coalition enforcement mechanism; (h) whether OPEC calls emergency session; (i) whether Al Rekayyat explodes; (j) whether 8-empty-LNG-carriers at Ras Laffan actually load over the weekend; (k) whether Iran-parliament-Council-of-Guardians formalizes Hormuz-closure from advisory-only.

Key uncertainties: (i) Trump-decision-window on Israel-join-strikes (~24-72h — political-authorization-tier now dominant); (ii) Iran response window to Bushehr-NPP-perimeter-strike + Kharg-formalization (~24-48h — pause reduces immediate-retaliation probability but Araghchi military-warning keeps window open); (iii) US 3rd-round-strike-window (~24-72h — AFP-denial suggests near-term restraint but Trump-Kharg-explicit signals capacity); (iv) Israel-kinetic-re-engagement-window (~24-96h — Netanyahu-Zamir-Katz declared imminence + willing-to-join, but no formal Trump-authorization); (v) IAEA-Bushehr-inspection-window (silent through 20h+); (vi) UNSC-Res-2817-enforcement-window (silent through 20h+); (vii) Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi-Saudi 4-way mediation-reactivation productivity (informal-consultation vs formal-restart); (viii) Whether Iraq-Turkey 12-mo K-C deal signs before formal Jul 27 expiry (17 days out); (ix) Whether OPEC+ supply-anchor absorbs shock or gives way to $80-90 tail; (x) Whether P&I withdrawal formalizes further; (xi) Whether Mojtaba appears in any credible medium — Mashhad-window MISSED; (xii) GL X1 Jul-17 wind-down operational compliance; (xiii) VLCC-day-rate repricing scale; (xiv) Whether Bushehr-informed-official "no damage" statement holds under IAEA-independent-verification; (xv) Whether Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump warning is vetted independently by US-intel or dismissed as Israeli-influence-effort; (xvi) Whether Iran-Health-Ministry vs IRNA casualty-count-divergence deepens (internal-regime-stress signal).

The base-case-scenario for C209 is Sat-Asia oil-open with Brent in $76-80 range, US-Iran no-3rd-round-yet but Trump-Israel-authorization-decision-window continuing to narrow, Al Rekayyat salvage-in-progress or completed, Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi-Saudi 4-way channel producing informal-consultation signals, IAEA finally issuing formal Bushehr statement, 8-empty-LNG-carriers Ras Laffan beginning to load, Iran-parliament-Hormuz-closure-vote-still-advisory, Hormuz-traffic remains at Lloyd's-List-10K-dwt-AIS-null tier — additional-ships-cross-dark Fri-Sat with US-coordinated corridor empty. The tail-case-scenario is Trump-green-lights-Israel-join-strikes + US 3rd-round-strike + Israel joins kinetic + IRGC executes "electricity for electricity" + IAEA confirms Bushehr NPP core damage or Kharg-oil-facilities-struck = $85-105 Brent tail. The downside-case (probability-marginally-improved from C207 due to 4-way-diplomatic-expand but partially-offset by Israel-escalation-vector-opening) is Pakistan-Qatar-Araghchi-Saudi 4-way channel producing tangible de-escalation framework by Mon-Asia-open + Trump withholds Israel-authorization + US-restraint holds + Israel-restraint despite Netanyahu-Zamir declaration + Al-Rekayyat-salvage-completes + no new tanker attacks + 8-empty-LNG-carriers-Ras-Laffan-load-successfully = Brent $73-76 range.

Source-lens reconciliation notes: (1) Israel willing to join US strikes waiting Trump okay: Times of Israel Jul 10 liveblog direct-source + Pravda-Trump Jul 9 cross-reference — anonymous "reports." (2) Israeli-intel Iran-plot-to-assassinate-Trump warning: CNN Jul 9 Politics + Jerusalem Post + WSJ + Times of Israel — anonymous "sources familiar with the matter"; CNN quotes some US-officials "skeptical of Israeli reporting." (3) Araghchi 4-way diplomatic-consultations: Siasat + NEWS.am + PressTV + Times of Israel + The Star cross-source — Iranian FM-attributed statements + Iranian state-media coverage. (4) Iran Health Ministry casualty-count: The Star + TASS + Vanguard + Just Security + RFE-RL cross-source — spokesman Hossein Kermanpour attributed; IRNA conflicting-count widely-noted (Iran Wire specifically flags divergence). (5) Lloyd's List Intelligence 10K-dwt AIS-null: Al Jazeera Jul 10 direct-quote + Bloomberg Jul 9 + World Oil cross-source. (6) Kharg-Island-struck retroactive-formalization: The Hill + Washington Examiner + Al Jazeera + Bloomberg + Yahoo Finance + GlobalSecurity + Bloomberg direct-quote of Trump. (7) Brent $76-77 through mid-day: Al Jazeera Jul-10 + Trading Economics + Fortune + Barchart cross-source. (8) Al Rekayyat salvage-pending: gCaptain + Insurance Journal + Zawya + MarineLink + New Arab + US News cross-source. (9) OPEC+ 188K Aug + Saudi-Aramco-$11-cut: Al Jazeera / GUPC / Euronews cross-source carries. (10) 8-empty-LNG-carriers Ras Laffan + Kpler notes 10-day-average doubled but ~80% below-year-ago: OilPrice + Athens Times + Kpler + TradeWinds + Energy News Beat cross-source. (11) India oil-crisis-deepens: OilPrice + Yahoo Finance + Energy News Beat + Sandstone cross-source carries. (12) GL X1 Jul-7-Jul-17 wind-down: Mondaq + Foley Lardner + NatLawReview + Freshfields cross-source carries. (13) Iraq-Turkey 12-mo K-C deal "coming days": TheNational + OilPrice + Turkishminute + MEO cross-source carries.

Sources:

• Times of Israel — July 10, 2026 liveblog: Reports Israel willing to join US strikes on Iran, waiting for Trump okay
• Pravda-Trump — Israel is waiting for Trump's green light to join the strikes on Iran
• CNN Politics — Israel shared intelligence with US of Iranian plot to assassinate Trump
• Jerusalem Post — Israel reportedly shares intelligence on Iranian plan to assassinate Donald Trump with US
• The Hill — Iran recently plotted to kill Donald Trump, per Israel
• Times of Israel — Israel said to warn US that Iran devised a new plot to assassinate Trump
• Siasat — Araghchi discusses region with foreign counterparts amid strikes (Saudi FM added)
• PressTV — Renewed US aggression will meet firm response: FM Araghchi (Pakistan Munir + Oman Busaidi + Turkey Fidan + Jordan Iranshahr context)
• NEWS.am — Iranian Foreign Minister holds talks with counterparts from Oman and Turkey
• The Star — At least 14 killed, 78 injured in US attacks on Iran, says Iranian Health Ministry
• TASS — At least 14 killed, 78 injured in US strikes, Iranian Health Ministry says
• Vanguard — Iran health ministry says 14 killed in two days of US strikes
• Iran Wire — Iran Issues Conflicting Death Tolls After U.S. Airstrikes
• RFE-RL — Live: US Insists Iran 'Does Not Control' Strait Of Hormuz (Araghchi + Health Ministry)
• Al Jazeera — Strait of Hormuz traffic plunges as US, Iran resume fighting (Lloyd's List 10K-dwt AIS-null formal)
• Bloomberg — Hormuz Shipping Grinds to Near Halt After US, Iran Strikes
• World Oil — Hormuz shipping grinds to near halt amid renewed U.S.-Iran strikes
• ZeroHedge — "Deepening Dark Trend" Emerges On Hormuz As Ship Traffic Slows
• The Hill — Donald Trump issues new threat to Iran amid strikes, vows to seize Kharg Island (Kharg-struck retro)
• Washington Examiner — Trump says US attacked Kharg Island and could take it over
• Al Jazeera — Trump says US 'may take over Kharg Island': Here's what you need to know
• Yahoo Finance — Trump muses about re-implementing blockade in Strait of Hormuz and taking over Kharg Island
• GlobalSecurity — US Could Seize Kharg Island, Reinstate Iran Naval Blockade — Trump
• Bloomberg — Trump Says US May Strike Iran Again, Threatens New Blockade
• ANI News — "War is not over yet": Israeli PM Netanyahu issues fresh warning to Iran (Jul 10)
• New Kerala — Netanyahu Warns Iran: War Not Over Amid New Tensions
• CNN — July 9, 2026 — US-Iran ceasefire crumbles as fresh strikes rock Middle East
• NPR — U.S. and Iran exchange intensifying fire across Mideast, threatening ceasefire deal (Jul 10)
• Wikipedia — 2026 Iran war ceasefire (Pakistan-Qatar mediation-reactivation)
• UN Peace Operations — UN calls for maximum restraint to preserve ceasefire
• gCaptain — Damaged Qatari LNG Tanker Awaits Salvage After Strike Near Hormuz (Al Rekayyat status)
• Insurance Journal — Damaged Qatari LNG Tanker Awaits Salvage After Strike as Hormuz Risks Escalate
• gCaptain — LNG Tanker 'Al Rekayyat' at Risk of Exploding After Attack Near Hormuz
• Zawya — Damaged Qatari LNG tanker awaits salvage after strike near Hormuz
• MarineLink — After a collision near Hormuz, a damaged Qatari LNG tanker is waiting for salvage
• OilPrice — Qatar's LNG Recovery Picks Up Speed as Tankers Mass at Ras Laffan (8 empty LNG carriers)
• Athens Times — LNG Tankers Queue Off Qatar's Ras Laffan as Production Resumes
• Kpler — Ras Laffan loading activity poised to pick up as available ballast tonnage increases
• AGBI — Force majeure on QatarEnergy LNG extends to fourth month
• CNBC — QatarEnergy extends force majeure September Italy's Edison Iran war
• Trading Economics — Crude Oil (WTI $71.74 Jul-9)
• Trading Economics — Brent crude oil
• Al Jazeera — OPEC+ countries say they will expand monthly oil production (+188K Aug)
• Euronews — OPEC+ agrees another modest output rise as oil prices fall back to pre-war levels
• The National — Iraq and Turkey near 12-month deal to keep pumping crude oil through Ceyhan
• OilPrice — Turkey and Iraq Move to Keep Critical Oil Export Route Alive
• OilPrice — India's Oil Crisis Deepens as Hormuz Remains Shut
• Yahoo Finance — India's Oil Crisis Deepens as Hormuz Remains Shut
• Energy News Beat — India's Oil Crisis as Hormuz is Still Closed
• Mondaq — OFAC Revokes Iran General License X (GL X1 wind-down)
• Foley Lardner — OFAC Rescinds Iranian Sanctions Relaxation Following Renewed Conflict
• Freshfields — Trump Administration Temporarily Eases US Sanctions on Iranian Oil
• Forbes — Hormuz Risk Is Back: Why The Market Is Wrong On Energy (Yildiz)
• Lloyd's List — Gulf war risk premiums topping double-digit millions of dollars per trip
• S&P Global — War risk insurance cost off highs but still elevated in Persian Gulf
• LMA Lloyd's — Safety concerns, not insurance availability, driving reduced vessel traffic
• Newsweek — Iran's Parliament Votes to Close Strait of Hormuz After US Attacks
• CENTCOM — U.S. Forces Complete Another Round of Strikes Against Iran
• Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
• Wikipedia — 2026 Iran war
• Wikipedia — Timeline of the 2026 Iran war
• Wikipedia — 2026 Kharg Island attack
• Straits.live — Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 130
• Hormuz Strait Monitor — Live Tracker
• IMF PortWatch — Hormuz Event
• UN Meetings Coverage — Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026)
• ChinaGlobalSouth — China State Refiners Considering Resuming Iran Oil Imports