June 17, 2026 · hormuz-tracker hormuz crisis energy geopolitics · raw markdown

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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-06-17 · Cycle 1 (C157)

War Day: 110 | Ceasefire Day: 70 (Apr 8 baseline; calendar) | Cycle: C157 (first cycle of 2026-06-17, US-Wednesday-morning / EU-midday CEST ~12:00; ~15h delta from C156 c3 21:00 CEST)

Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes Grok_outputs folder iteration confirms most recent HORMUZ X-PULSE remains Apr 29, well outside 12h window; full 13-topic web sweep executed against C156 baseline.

Baseline: C156 / 2026-06-16 c3 (STRUCTURAL-DISCHARGE CONFIRMATION cycle: Brent <$80 / WTI <$76 largest single-day deal-credibility discharge + G7 leaders joint statement "moment of opportunity" + EU VDL "toll-free" tier + PK formal Geneva host + UK-FR mission "ready to deploy" + Trump "rearview mirror" + "not pouring any money" + Lebanon obstacle Antiwar.com wire-corroboration + CENTCOM 8/134/42 ledger formalized + Polymarket permanent-deal craters ~50.5% → ~13% + Iran-Israel 15th+ window extends).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-06-17 C157, US-Wednesday-morning / EU-midday CEST ~12:00; ~15h delta from C156 c3): C157 is a MULTILATERAL-CONSOLIDATION + LEBANON-STRAIN COMPOUND CYCLE with (1) G7 LEADERS' FORMAL JOINT OUTCOME DOCUMENT FORMALIZED EARLY JUN 17 — leaders call US-Iran MoU "HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY" to prevent Iran nuclear weaponization; affirm "right to free passage WITHOUT TOLLS" as "BEDROCK OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE"; endorse UK-France defensive initiative role; commit to energy-supply diversification. First formal G7 leaders' outcome document on MoU at multi-sovereign-leader-tier — escalates from C156 area-specific statement to full G7 consolidation document with explicit "TOLL-FREE" anchor + UK-FR mission endorsement. (2) IRAN ARMY: ISRAEL VIOLATED CEASEFIRE 84 TIMES IN S. LEBANON SINCE SUNDAY — "EXPECT A HARSH RESPONSE" — Al Jazeera Jun 16-17: Iran's army formally counts 84 Israeli violations of the Lebanon ceasefire in <72h post-deal-announcement; threatens "harsh response" framework activation. Concretizes C156 Antiwar.com wire-corroboration at IRGC-army-tier formal violation count + warning. (3) TRUMP PUBLICLY REBUKES NETANYAHU OVER LEBANON — "MORE RESPONSIBLE" + "VICIOUS" + "TOO MUCH" — Time + CBS News Jun 16-17: "I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. They should have been able to do the job faster." Last weekend's Beirut strikes "vicious" and "too much." Trump also: "Deal can withstand Israel's Lebanon attacks." US-presidential-tier explicit Israel-rebuke at first-time-since-deal-tier; substance-tier confrontation between US-presidential and Israeli-PM-tier. (4) VP VANCE: MOU TEXT RELEASE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY (TODAY) — multi-wire Jun 16-17: "The president said by the latest Friday, possibly as early as tomorrow, we're going to release the memorandum of understanding text" — substance-tier transparency-pre-signing event window opens 0-12h. (5) IAEA SATELLITE-UPDATE: DIRECT IMPACTS ON NATANZ UNDERGROUND ENRICHMENT HALLS — JUN 17 REPORT — ANS Nuclear Newswire + IAEA: subsequent satellite analysis indicates direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls, upgrading earlier "no indication" assessment. Lock 6 substance-tier escalation at IAEA-verification-tier — pre-positions 60-day nuclear-talks framework risk + uranium-stockpile resolution complexity. (6) PAKISTAN PM SHARIF PRAISES MOJTABA KHAMENEI AS "SUPREME LEADER" + MBS + ERDOGAN + EMIR TAMIM + PEZESHKIAN PRAISED AS COVENANT-PARTIES — Star + Express Tribune Jun 15-17: regional-mediator-tier broadens to GCC + Turkey + Iran-Pres-tier alignment. Mojtaba Khamenei formally addressed as "Supreme Leader" by Pakistani-PM-tier — substance-tier consolidation at Iran-supreme-leader-recognition at PK-host-tier; pre-positions Khamenei-tier sign-off at Geneva ceremony. (7) BRENT $80 RANGE HOLDS C156 DISCHARGE FLOOR — NO MAJOR RETRACE INTRADAY ~15h — Brent trades near $80 (longest losing streak of the year + oil heading toward fourth+ consecutive decline session); WTI near $78 holds. Discharge floor $77-82 base case confirms; no major retrace despite Iran-army Lebanon warning. (8) POLYMARKET HORMUZ NORMALIZE-BY-JUL-31 = 57.5% — INSTITUTIONAL CONFIDENCE FRAME — polymarket Hormuz normalization market: 57.5% by July 31; permanent-deal Jun 30 carries ~13% from C156 cratering; ceasefire-tier carries ~91% from C156 hardening — retail-tier bifurcation persists. (9) IRAN-ISRAEL DIRECT-LEG 16TH+ WINDOW EXTENDS THROUGH C157 (~15h DELTA, no fresh kinetic). (10) IRGC FORMAL CLOSURE DAY 7 — STILL UNRETRACTED, NO IRGC RETRACTION STATEMENT IN ~15h WINDOW. (11) DISHA DAHEJ ETA JUN 18 — TOMORROW; INSTITUTIONAL ANCHOR SCI-LED CONSORTIUM CARRIES. (12) EIA WPSR Wed Jun 17 10:30 AM ET — TODAY; first SPR-specific direct-verify post-multi-tier verification. Net: C157 = MULTILATERAL-CONSOLIDATION at G7-formal-joint-document-tier + EU-VDL-toll-free-tier + GCC-Turkey-broader-mediator-tier + Trump-Israel-rebuke-tier; LEBANON-STRAIN COMPOUND at Iran-army-84-violations-warning-tier + IAEA-Natanz-underground-direct-impact-tier; SUBSTANCE-TIER MoU-TEXT-RELEASE WINDOW OPENS 0-12h. Brent path: discharge sustains within $77-82 base case if MoU text release confirms substance + EIA WPSR confirms inventory math + Jun 19 Geneva actualizes + Iran-army Lebanon-warning de-escalates; partial retrace $82-87 if Iran-army "harsh response" activates kinetic OR Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalates to MoU-renegotiation OR IAEA Natanz-upgrade compounds Iran-side reservations; $87-95 if Jun 19 slips OR multi-leg compound + Iran-army Lebanon-retaliation; $95-105 if Jun 19 empirically fails AND Khamenei-tier publicly explicit AND Iran activates Lebanon-leg retaliation.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE (C156 → C157 DELTAS)

🟢 G7 LEADERS' FORMAL JOINT OUTCOME DOCUMENT — "HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY" + "FREE PASSAGE WITHOUT TOLLS" + UK-FR ENDORSEMENT + ENERGY-DIVERSIFICATION COMMIT: Per techtimes + thenationaldesk + CNN + NPR Jun 17: G7 leaders' joint statement formalized early Jun 17 — calls MoU "historic opportunity" to prevent Tehran nuclear weaponization + affirms right to "free passage without hindrance and the need to pay tolls is the foundation of international trade" + endorses UK-France defensive initiative role + commits to energy-supply diversification post-Hormuz vulnerability. Significance: ESCALATION from C156 area-specific outcome document → full G7 leaders' joint outcome document on Iran-MoU at multi-sovereign-leader-tier with explicit "toll-free" anchor concretizing EU VDL framing + UK-FR endorsement formalizing capability-coordination tier + diversification commit at structural-tier; G7 consolidation now operates at full-leaders-joint-document-tier first time since deal announcement.

🔴 IRAN ARMY FORMAL COUNT: 84 ISRAELI CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS IN S. LEBANON SINCE SUNDAY — "HARSH RESPONSE" WARNING: Per Al Jazeera live blog + Times of Israel Jun 16-17: Iran's army formally states Israel has violated Lebanon ceasefire 84 times in <72h post-MoU-announcement; aggressor "should expect a harsh response if attacks continue." Significance: concretizes C155-C156 Iran-FM Lebanon-MoU-conditioning at IRGC-army-tier formal violation-count + retaliation-warning framework; activates Lebanon-leg as substance-tier MoU-violation-claim with implicit kinetic-trigger framework; substance-tier escalation from C156 Antiwar.com wire-corroboration to IRGC-army-formal-count + explicit-warning-tier; pre-positions Iran-army Lebanon-leg retaliation activation in 0-72h window.

🔴 TRUMP PUBLICLY REBUKES NETANYAHU OVER LEBANON — "MORE RESPONSIBLE" + "VICIOUS" + "TOO MUCH"; DEAL "CAN WITHSTAND" LEBANON ATTACKS: Per Time + CBS News + The Hill Jun 16-17: Trump at G7: "I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. They should have been able to do the job faster"; last weekend's Beirut strikes "vicious" and "too much"; tells Netanyahu must be "more responsible." Separately: "Deal can withstand Israel's Lebanon attacks." Significance: first explicit US-presidential-tier public rebuke of Israeli-PM-tier on Lebanon since MoU announcement; substance-tier confrontation at US-PRES-vs-Israeli-PM-tier; Trump simultaneously protects MoU framework at presidential-tier ("can withstand") + pre-positions Israel as substance-tier outlier-actor; G7 leaders held "very detailed discussion about Lebanon" per CBC/multi-wire confirming substance-tier salience at G7-leaders-conclave-tier.

🟡 VP VANCE: MOU TEXT RELEASE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY (TODAY): Per ABC News + Britannica + multi-wire Jun 16-17: "The president said by the latest Friday, possibly as early as tomorrow, we're going to release the memorandum of understanding text." Vance simultaneously downplays release overall. Significance: substance-tier transparency-pre-signing-event window opens 0-12h; pre-Jun-19 substance-text-release would consolidate institutional confidence pre-ceremony + expose dispute-tier specifics ($24B mechanism, sanctions waiver scope, Lebanon-cessation language, nuclear-talks framework) to public-substance-tier verification before signing event; risk: text-release-tier disputes could trigger Iran-side or Israel-side substance-pushback pre-signing.

🔴 IAEA JUN 17 SATELLITE-UPDATE: DIRECT IMPACTS ON NATANZ UNDERGROUND ENRICHMENT HALLS — UPGRADES EARLIER "NO INDICATION" ASSESSMENT: Per ANS Nuclear Newswire + IAEA Jun 17: subsequent analysis of satellite imagery indicates direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls; upgrades earlier IAEA assessment ("no indication of physical attack on underground cascade hall, but loss of power may have damaged centrifuges"). Significance: Lock 6 substance-tier escalation at IAEA-verification-tier; pre-positions 60-day nuclear-talks framework risk + Iran existing-uranium-stockpile resolution complexity at substance-tier; concretizes nuclear-infrastructure damage at IAEA-satellite-verification-tier; Iran-side may activate this finding to pre-position nuclear-talks substance-tier leverage post-MoU-signing.

🟢 REGIONAL MEDIATOR-TIER BROADENS — PAKISTAN PM SHARIF PRAISES MOJTABA KHAMENEI AS "SUPREME LEADER" + MBS + ERDOGAN + EMIR TAMIM + PEZESHKIAN AS COVENANT-PARTIES: Per Star + Express Tribune Jun 15-17: Sharif "praised international leaders including US President Donald Trump, Iran's leadership including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian President Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, and other members of negotiating teams, as well as Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan." Significance: mediator-tier expands from 6-tier (US-PK-QA-CN-G7-G7+3-EU) to 8-tier including KSA-MBS + Turkey-Erdogan; Mojtaba Khamenei formally addressed as "Supreme Leader" at PK-host-tier — substance-tier consolidation at Iran-supreme-leader-recognition; Pezeshkian-Iran-president-tier explicit covenant-party identification; pre-positions Khamenei-tier sign-off at Geneva ceremony at PK-host-recognition-tier.

🟢 BRENT $80 RANGE HOLDS C156 DISCHARGE FLOOR — NO MAJOR RETRACE INTRADAY ~15h DELTA: Per investing.com + tradingeconomics Jun 17: Brent trades near $80 (longest losing streak of the year, oil heading toward fourth+ consecutive decline session); WTI near $78. Discharge floor $77-82 base case confirms; no major retrace despite Iran-army Lebanon warning at Asia/EU-open. Significance: Lock 1 LOOSENING-tier holds C156 discharge structurally; price-tier registers institutional-confidence-dominance over substance-tier Lebanon-warning risk-vector in ~15h window; $77-82 base case consolidates as durable discharge floor.

🟡 POLYMARKET HORMUZ NORMALIZE-BY-JUL-31 = 57.5% — INSTITUTIONAL CONFIDENCE FRAME: Per polymarket Jun 17: Hormuz normalization probability 57.5% by July 31; permanent-deal Jun 30 carries ~13% from C156 cratering; ceasefire-tier carries ~91% from C156 hardening. Significance: retail-tier bifurcation persists with Hormuz-operational-normalization-tier at moderate-to-high probability while permanent-deal-tier remains critically low; market structurally expects ceasefire-durability + Hormuz-operational-reopening but NOT comprehensive substance-resolution by Jun 30.

🟡 CENTCOM ENFORCEMENT LEDGER CARRIES — 139 DIVERTED / 9 DISABLED / 3 SEIZED / 85 INTERCEPTED PER CENTCOM (Jun 12-13 read); BLOCKADE OPERATIONAL JUN 17: Per Wikipedia "2026 US naval blockade of Iran" + The Hill + Stars and Stripes: CENTCOM continues blockade enforcement; 139 compliant commercial ships redirected + 9 noncompliant vessels disabled since April 13; 3 ships seized + 85 vessels intercepted; blockade reportedly costing Iran $500M daily; 26 vessels bypassed blockade per Lloyd's List. Significance: blockade-physical-tier operational Day 65+ pending Jun 19 ceremony; ledger expands from C156 8/134/42 to 9/139/42+85+3 across multi-source consolidation; pre-Jun-19 wind-down operational-statement still pending.

🟢 IRAN-ISRAEL DIRECT-LEG 16TH+ WINDOW EXTENDS THROUGH C157 (~15h DELTA, NO FRESH KINETIC): Single load-bearing structural lock continues durability through C157 window despite Iran-army Lebanon-violation count + warning.

🔴 IRGC FORMAL CLOSURE DAY 7 — STILL UNRETRACTED: No IRGC retraction statement in ~15h C157 window; doctrine-vs-deal-text bifurcation persists Day 7+.

⏳ MOU TEXT RELEASE WINDOW — 0-12h (today possible per Vance)
⏳ EIA WPSR — 10:30 AM ET TODAY: First SPR-specific direct-verify post-multi-tier verification.
⏳ DISHA DAHEJ ARRIVAL — TOMORROW Jun 18.
⏳ JUN 19 GENEVA SIGNING CEREMONY (PK-HOSTED) — 2 DAYS: Single most important structural confirmation event.
⏳ QATAR LNG MID-JUNE FORCE MAJEURE DECISION — OVERDUE.
⏳ PHILIPPINES JUN 30 FUEL-VISIBILITY DEADLINE — 13 DAYS.
⏳ IRAQ K-C CONTRACT JUL 27 — 40 DAYS.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 110 / Ceasefire Day 70. C156 → C157 (~15h): G7 LEADERS FORMAL JOINT OUTCOME DOCUMENT + IRAN ARMY 84 LEBANON VIOLATIONS WARNING + TRUMP REBUKES NETANYAHU + VANCE MOU-TEXT-RELEASE-WED + IAEA NATANZ UNDERGROUND DIRECT-IMPACT UPGRADE + REGIONAL MEDIATOR-TIER EXPANSION (MBS + ERDOGAN + EMIR TAMIM + PEZESHKIAN) + BRENT $80 FLOOR HOLDS + POLYMARKET HORMUZ NORMALIZE-JUL-31 57.5% + CENTCOM 139/9 LEDGER + IRAN-ISRAEL 16TH+ WINDOW EXTENDS + IRGC CLOSURE DAY 7+ UNRETRACTED.

Cross-leg status (C157):

🟢 Iran-Israel direct-leg: PAUSE HOLDS — 16TH+ window extends ~15h delta; no fresh direct-leg kinetic
🟡 Iran-US Hormuz-leg: DISHA Dahej Jun 18 pending; SETTEBELLO retrospective + attribution-dispute-tier carries; IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+; blockade-operational-til-Jun-19 carries; CENTCOM 139/9/3/85 multi-source ledger consolidates
🔴 Iran-US blockade-leg: Blockade-til-Jun-19 carries; CENTCOM ledger 9 disabled / 139 diverted / 3 seized / 85 intercepted formally articulated at multi-source-tier
🟢 Iran-US rhetorical-leg: Trump "rearview mirror" carries + Trump "not pouring any money" carries + Trump "MORE RESPONSIBLE" Netanyahu-rebuke NEW + G7 full leaders' joint document NEW + EU VDL toll-free carries + MBS + Erdogan + Tamim + Pezeshkian praised as covenant-parties NEW — MULTI-TIER CONSOLIDATES + TRUMP-NETANYAHU REBUKE NEW + GCC-TURKEY-IRAN-PRES BROADER MEDIATOR EXPANSION
🟡 Iran intra-elite + intra-state: Mojtaba Khamenei formally addressed as "Supreme Leader" by PK-host-tier; Pezeshkian explicitly covenant-party at PK-host-tier; Ghalibaf Parl-Speaker-tier Geneva attendance carries; Iran International 8-of-10 carry-doubt-tier persists; IRGC closure unretracted carries — MOJTABA-KHAMENEI-SUPREME-LEADER-RECOGNITION-TIER NEW
🔴 Israel-MOU posture: TRUMP PUBLIC REBUKE — "MORE RESPONSIBLE" + "VICIOUS" + "TOO MUCH" — first explicit US-PRES-rebuke of Israeli-PM since MoU announcement; Netanyahu Likud campaign scrapped per Times of Israel — substance-tier outlier-actor positioning hardens
🔴 Lebanon-leg: IRAN ARMY: 84 ISRAELI CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS + "HARSH RESPONSE" WARNING — concretizes substance-tier MoU-violation-count + explicit-kinetic-trigger framework at IRGC-army-tier; Iran-FM Lebanon-MoU-conditioning carries; CBC: both sides week Jun 22 talks; Lebanese drone strikes Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit reported — LEBANON-LEG ELEVATES AT IRAN-ARMY-FORMAL-COUNT-TIER
🟡 Yemen/Red Sea-leg: Jun 15 0735 UTC skiff carries pending attribution; MARAD 2026-006 active; no new C157 kinetic — CARRIES
🟢 Mediation: 6-TIER → 8-TIER EXPANSION via Sharif praise of MBS + Erdogan + Tamim + Pezeshkian + Mojtaba Khamenei; G7 leaders' full joint document at multi-sovereign-leader-tier; UK-FR endorsement formalized via G7 statement — PK-HOST-TIER + 8-TIER MEDIATOR EXPANSION

Key Jun 17 C157 events (~15h delta from C156 c3):

🟢 G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document — "historic opportunity" + "toll-free" + UK-FR endorsement + diversification commit
🔴 Iran army: 84 Israeli ceasefire violations in S. Lebanon since Sunday — "harsh response" warning
🔴 Trump publicly rebukes Netanyahu — "more responsible" + "vicious" + "too much"
🟡 VP Vance: MoU text release as early as Wednesday (today)
🔴 IAEA Jun 17 satellite-update: direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls
🟢 Regional mediator-tier broadens — MBS + Erdogan + Tamim + Pezeshkian + Mojtaba "Supreme Leader" praised by PK-PM-tier
🟢 Brent $80 / WTI $78 discharge floor holds intraday ~15h
🟡 Polymarket Hormuz normalize-by-Jul-31 = 57.5%; permanent-deal Jun 30 ~13% carries; ceasefire-tier 91% carries
🟡 CENTCOM ledger consolidates at multi-source-tier (139/9/3/85)
🟢 Iran-Israel direct-leg 16TH+ WINDOW HOLDS
🔴 IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+
⏳ MoU text release — 0-12h (today possible)
⏳ EIA WPSR — 10:30 AM ET TODAY
⏳ DISHA Dahej arrival — tomorrow Jun 18
⏳ Jun 19 Geneva (PK-hosted) — 2 days
⏳ Qatar LNG — overdue
⏳ Philippines Jun 30 — 13 days
⏳ Iraq K-C Jul 27 — 40 days

Cumulative casualties (carry from C156 + no in-window updates):

Iran civilians killed: 1,701+ HRANA STALE / 3,468 Foundation of Martyrs May 5
Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs
US KIA/wounded: 13 / 381+
Seafarers (IMO cumulative): 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities since Feb 28 + Jun 15 Yemen skiff (pending attribution); SETTEBELLO 3 KIA in baseline carry
Lebanon: ~3,516+ cumulative; 10,674+ wounded cumulative + Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit drone-strike injuries pending
Israel (Lebanon-leg): Hezbollah projectile/drone tempo carries

Ceasefire likelihood assessment (C157): MAINTAIN MODERATE-HIGH for 7-day window based on G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document + EU VDL toll-free + PK formal Geneva host + UK-FR mission ready + Trump deal-protection ("can withstand") + Brent $80 floor + DISHA SCI-led anchor + Iran-Israel 16TH+ window + 8-tier mediator chain expansion (MBS + Erdogan + Tamim + Pezeshkian). MAINTAIN MODERATE for 96h window due to Iran-army 84-violation Lebanon-warning + explicit "harsh response" framework + IAEA Natanz underground direct-impact upgrade + Trump-Netanyahu rebuke tension + Israel substance-tier outlier-actor positioning + IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+ + Polymarket permanent-deal carries ~13% + Iran International 8-of-10 carry-doubt-tier carries + SETTEBELLO attribution-dispute-tier carries + Yemen-leg pending attribution + MoU text-release substance-dispute exposure window 0-12h. DOWNGRADE TO LOW for 7-day window IF (i) Jun 19 Geneva empirically fails like C147+C150 prior failures, (ii) Iran-army "harsh response" activates Lebanon-leg kinetic retaliation, (iii) Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalates to MoU-renegotiation tier, (iv) IAEA Natanz-update compounds 60-day nuclear-talks complexity at Iran-uranium-stockpile-tier, (v) Khamenei-tier publicly explicit disavowal of draft text per Iran International 8-of-10 framing, (vi) Brent re-breaks $84-88 on substance-tier compound, (vii) Multi-leg kinetic compound (Yemen-leg + Hormuz-leg + Lebanon-leg + Israel response to Iran-army warning). Critical inflections next 0-12h: (1) Does MoU text release today (Wed) actualize per Vance signal, (2) Does EIA WPSR confirm inventory-math supporting deal-credibility, (3) Does IAEA Natanz-update generate Iran-side substance-tier 60-day-talks pre-positioning, (4) Does Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalate or de-escalate at follow-on US-pres-tier, (5) Does Iran-army "harsh response" activate kinetic-leg or remain rhetorical-tier, (6) Does Israeli Lebanon strikes continue or pause, (7) Does IRGC retraction statement issue ahead of Jun 19, (8) Does DISHA Dahej arrival actualize per ETA, (9) Does Polymarket permanent-deal trajectory stabilize ~13% or crater below 10%, (10) Does Iran-Israel direct-leg 17th window form.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current Status	Δ vs C156 c3
Transits/day	~0 normalized per straits.live Day 108 vs ~94/day pre-war; ~15/24h IRGC-permission baseline carries; DISHA institutional anchor carries	CARRY
Iran formal closure	C141 declaration STILL HOLDS Day 7; no IRGC formal retraction in C157 window	🔴 CARRY — DAY 7+
Strait status	DUAL-DOCTRINE-WITH-IRAN-REFRAME-AND-VESSEL-TIER-VERIFICATION-WITH-LEBANON-MoU-CONDITIONING-WITH-MULTILATERAL-CONSOLIDATION carries; G7 leaders' "toll-free" anchor formalized at full-leaders-joint-document-tier	🟢 G7 LEADERS' FULL JOINT DOCUMENT NEW
US kinetic activity	No fresh US-kinetic in C157 ~15h window; CENTCOM 139/9/3/85 ledger consolidates at multi-source-tier	🟢 QUIESCENT + LEDGER CONSOLIDATES
Iran kinetic activity — Hormuz-leg	No new Iran OWA in C157 window; Yemen-leg Jun 15 skiff carries pending attribution	🟢 QUIESCENT ~15h
Iran kinetic activity — US-leg	Tri-state retaliation closed C141 carries	CARRY
Iran-Israel direct-leg	PAUSE HOLDS — 16TH+ WINDOW EXTENDS through ~15h C157 delta	🟢 16TH+ WINDOW EXTENDS
US blockade — political	G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document + Trump-Netanyahu rebuke + Vance MoU-text-release-Wed + PK formal Geneva host + 8-tier mediator expansion	🟢 MULTI-TIER CONSOLIDATES + TRUMP-NETANYAHU REBUKE
US blockade — physical	Wikipedia "2026 US naval blockade of Iran" + The Hill + Stars and Stripes consolidation: blockade remains until Jun 19; CENTCOM ledger 9 disabled / 139 diverted / 3 seized / 85 intercepted; 26 bypassed per Lloyd's List; blockade reportedly costing Iran $500M daily	🔴 CARRIES + LEDGER MULTI-SOURCE CONSOLIDATES
India safe passage	DISHA SCI-led consortium institutional anchor carries; Dahej Jun 18 ETA tomorrow	🟡 DAHEJ ETA TOMORROW
China bilateral exception	Late-stage Khamenei mediation entry carries; bilateral exception under IRGC-permission	CARRY
IRGC posture	Formal closure Day 7+ HOLDS + Fars "regulated-reopen" carries + IRGC 15-ship/24h permission framework carries; doctrine-vs-deal-text bifurcation persists Day 7+	🔴 CARRY — DAY 7+ + KHAMENEI-DOUBT-TIER
Houthi Red Sea blockade	Jun 15 0735 UTC skiff carries pending attribution; Jun 10 cargo vessel skiff-attempt carries; MARAD 2026-006 active; no new C157 kinetic	CARRY
Mine threat	CRITICAL (JMIC formal); Pentagon 6-month full-minesweep carries; Macron mine-clearing carries	CARRY
Mine clearance / escort	UK-FR mission "READY TO DEPLOY" carries from C156; G7 leaders' joint document formally endorses UK-FR initiative role; ~20 contributing, 4 in-region	🟢 G7 ENDORSEMENT FORMALIZES
P&I re-entry	NO re-entry Day 70; vessel-kinetic anchor PARTIALLY RESTORED via SETTEBELLO retrospective coverage; Yemen-leg sub-anchor carries; Lloyd's 4-condition framework status: (1) ratification — DEPUTY-FM ACHIEVED; (2) IRGC retraction — UNRESOLVED Day 7+; (3) sustained quiescence — RESTORES ~15h further; (4) blockade-lift — DEFERRED to Jun 19	🟢 QUIESCENCE ~15h FURTHER + G7 LEADERS' ENDORSEMENT
Seafarers stranded	IMO ~20,000 (Stars and Stripes); ~2,000 vessels in Hormuz area formalized at IMO-tier; DG Shipping 3,587+ repatriated cumulative	CARRY
Vessels stranded	~2,000 in Hormuz area per IMO (Stars and Stripes); 60 VLCCs MEG carry; ~354 anchored/stopped (straits.live)	CARRY
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan contract	Expires Jul 27 — 40 days; Hurriyet: Iraq seeks 1-year extension; Basra-via-Ceyhan target 140K bpd within 2 weeks (May refresh)	CARRY
Iraq Hormuz/Basra June throughput	June MTD ~7M bbl matches Apr+May; Basra terminals operational	CARRY
Iran $2M safe-passage fee / "Hormuz Safe"	Status ambiguous under formal closure + "regulated-reopen" Fars + IRGC permission-framework; G7 leaders' joint document "toll-free" anchor at multi-leader-tier + EU VDL "toll-free" tier pre-positions	🟢 G7 + EU VDL TOLL-FREE TIER CONSOLIDATES
Deal-architecture status (C157)	🟢 G7 leaders' full joint outcome document at multi-sovereign-leader-tier; 🟢 8-tier mediator expansion (MBS + Erdogan + Tamim + Pezeshkian + Mojtaba "Supreme Leader" PK-host recognition); 🟢 UK-FR endorsement formalized via G7 document; 🟢 Trump Netanyahu "more responsible" rebuke; 🟡 VP Vance MoU-text-release-Wed; 🔴 Iran-army 84 Lebanon violations + "harsh response" warning; 🔴 IAEA Natanz underground direct-impact upgrade; 🔴 IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+; 🔴 Polymarket permanent-deal ~13% carries; 🔴 TWZ blockade-til-Jun-19 carries	🟢 5 NEW POSITIVE STRUCTURAL TIERS; 🔴 4 NEW NEGATIVE STRUCTURAL TIERS
Khamenei sign-off	Mojtaba Khamenei formally addressed as "Supreme Leader" by PK-PM-tier Sharif statement; Pezeshkian explicitly covenant-party; Ghalibaf Parl-Speaker-tier Geneva attendance carries; Iran International 8-of-10 carry-doubt-tier persists	🟢 PK-HOST-TIER SUPREME-LEADER-RECOGNITION NEW
14-point text status	Iran Mehr 14-point publish carries; $24B vs Trump money-denial dispersion carries; Iran-tier implementation-deferral till Jun 19 carries; Iran FM Lebanon-conditioning carries; VP Vance: TEXT RELEASE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY	🟡 MOU-TEXT-RELEASE WINDOW OPENS 0-12h
Lebanon-leg	Iran-army 84 Israeli violations formal count + "harsh response" warning at IRGC-army-tier; Antiwar.com wire-corroboration carries; Trump publicly rebukes Netanyahu — "more responsible" + "vicious" + "too much"; Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit drone strikes reported; Israeli Lebanon strikes Monday Jun 15 corroborated; G7 leaders' "very detailed discussion about Lebanon"	🔴 IRAN-ARMY FORMAL COUNT + "HARSH RESPONSE" WARNING + TRUMP-NETANYAHU REBUKE
Intra-Iran political stress	Deputy-FM Gharibabadi ratification carries; Mojtaba Khamenei "Supreme Leader" recognition at PK-host-tier NEW; Pezeshkian covenant-party-tier NEW; Iran International 8-of-10 carry-doubt-tier carries; FM "deep mistrust" carries; Fars "regulated-reopen" carries; SNSC Zolghadr carries; IRGC closure unretracted; Tehran/Mashhad protests carry; Iran Mehr 14-point publish carries; Iran FM Lebanon-conditioning carries; Ghalibaf Geneva attendance carries	🟢 MOJTABA-KHAMENEI-SUPREME-LEADER-PK-RECOGNITION + PEZESHKIAN COVENANT-PARTY
Mediator activity	8-tier mediator chain CONSOLIDATES — US-PK(formal-host + Mojtaba/Pezeshkian recognition)-QA-CN-G7(full-joint-document)-G7+3(Egypt/Qatar/UAE)-EU(VDL)-KSA(MBS-praised-by-PK)-Turkey(Erdogan-praised-by-PK); PK formal Geneva host UPGRADE from co-announcer; G7 full leaders' joint document at multi-sovereign-leader-tier; EU VDL at EC-presidency-tier	🟢 6+ TIER → 8 TIER EXPANSION + G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT

Key narrative (C157): The strait operates under DUAL-DOCTRINE-WITH-IRAN-REFRAME-AND-VESSEL-TIER-VERIFICATION-WITH-LEBANON-MoU-CONDITIONING-WITH-MULTI-TIER-MULTILATERAL-CONSOLIDATION-WITH-LEBANON-STRAIN-COMPOUND BIFURCATION: FORMAL CLOSURE DECLARATION (Iran, Day 7+) + IRGC-PERMISSION FRAMEWORK + FARS "REGULATED-REOPEN" + DISHA LNG SCI-LED INSTITUTIONAL ANCHOR (Dahej Jun 18 tomorrow) + IRAN GHARIBABADI DEPUTY-FM CONFIRMATION + IRAN IMPLEMENTATION-DEFERRAL JUN 19 + US BLOCKADE-OPERATIONAL-TIL-JUN-19 + CENTCOM 139/9/3/85 MULTI-SOURCE LEDGER + 14-POINT MoU + VP VANCE MOU-TEXT-RELEASE-WEDNESDAY-POSSIBLE + TRUMP G7 "REARVIEW MIRROR" + "NOT POURING ANY MONEY" + "MORE RESPONSIBLE" NETANYAHU REBUKE + EQUITY DOW 51,671 ATH carry + G7 LEADERS' FORMAL JOINT OUTCOME DOCUMENT "HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY" + "TOLL-FREE" + UK-FR ENDORSEMENT + DIVERSIFICATION COMMIT + 8-TIER MEDIATOR EXPANSION (US-PK-QA-CN-G7-G7+3-EU-KSA-Turkey) + EU VDL TOLL-FREE TIER + PAKISTAN FORMAL GENEVA HOST + MOJTABA "SUPREME LEADER" RECOGNITION + PEZESHKIAN COVENANT-PARTY + VP VANCE + GHALIBAF + ARAGHCHI CONFIRMED CEREMONY ATTENDANCE + UK-FRANCE HORMUZ MISSION READY TO DEPLOY + IRAN-ARMY 84-VIOLATION LEBANON COUNT + "HARSH RESPONSE" WARNING + IAEA NATANZ UNDERGROUND DIRECT-IMPACT UPGRADE JUN 17 + Iran FM Araghchi Lebanon-MoU-conditioning carries + Iran Mehr $24B carries + POLYMARKET PERMANENT-DEAL ~13% CARRIES + HORMUZ NORMALIZE-JUL-31 57.5%. Iran-Israel direct-leg 16TH+ window holds through C157 ~15h delta. BRENT $80 FLOOR HOLDS C156 DISCHARGE / WTI $78 / Lock 1 LOOSENING-tier holds discharge floor. Forward path: discharge sustains $77-82 if MoU text release confirms + EIA WPSR confirms + Jun 19 Geneva actualizes + Iran-army Lebanon-warning de-escalates; partial retrace $82-87 if Iran-army "harsh response" activates Lebanon-leg kinetic OR Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalates to MoU-renegotiation OR IAEA Natanz-upgrade compounds Iran-side reservations; $87-95 if Jun 19 slips OR multi-leg compound + Iran-army Lebanon retaliation; $95-105 if Jun 19 empirically fails AND Khamenei-tier publicly explicit AND Iran activates Lebanon-leg retaliation.

3. Tanker Attack Log

Running total (carries from C156): ~98+ commercial+infrastructure incidents since Feb 28; IMO 46+ attacks + 14 fatalities + Jun 15 Yemen-leg skiff (pending). C157 window: NO NEW MARITIME-KINETIC EVENT in ~15h window; NO NEW LEBANON-LEG KINETIC IN MARITIME-TIER; Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit Israeli drone-strikes on Lebanese territory reported; NO NEW IRAN-ISRAEL DIRECT KINETIC; CENTCOM ledger consolidates at multi-source-tier 9 disabled / 139 diverted / 3 seized / 85 intercepted; 26 bypassed per Lloyd's List.

Date	Vessel/Target	Flag/Operator	Location	Type	Damage/Casualties	Δ
Jun 17 C157	NO NEW MARITIME-KINETIC EVENT	—	—	—	—	🟢 QUIESCENT ~15h
Jun 16-17 (NEW)	Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit (southern Lebanon towns)	Lebanon (territorial)	Southern Lebanon	Israeli drone strikes (4 reported)	Injuries reported; casualties pending	🔴 NEW (Lebanon-leg drone strikes continuing)
Jun 15 (carry)	DISHA LNG carrier (62,370 MT)	Malta-flagged SCI-led India-bound	Strait of Hormuz	POSITIVE TRANSIT — non-kinetic	No incident; Dahej Jun 18 ETA tomorrow	🟢 SCI-LED ANCHOR CARRIES
Jun 15 0735 UTC (carry)	Container vessel	TBD	14NM south of Yemeni coast	Small-skiff approach + opened fire + attempted boarding	Status TBD per UKMTO; pending attribution	CARRY
Jun 13 (carry)	Tanker (unspecified)	TBD	6nm east of Oman, Port Bow	Unknown projectile	Crew safe; continuing	CARRY
Jun 14 (carry)	Hezbollah command center Dahiyeh	Lebanon (Beirut metro)	Beirut Dahiyeh	IDF airstrike	3 KIA + 7-14 wounded	CARRY
Jun 14 (carry)	29-town displacement zone	Lebanon (territorial)	South of Zahrani River	IDF forced displacement orders	Civilian displacement	CARRY
Jun 14 (carry)	Shomera + Shlomi northern Israel	Israel (territorial)	Northern Israel	Hezbollah 3 projectiles	No injuries per IDF	CARRY
Jun 14 (carry)	Southern Lebanon 13-town zone	Lebanon (territorial)	Sidon + 12 named	IDF airstrikes	Casualties pending	CARRY
Jun 13 c3 (carry)	Tyre, Lebanon (urban)	Lebanon (territorial)	Tyre	Israeli airstrike	5 KIA + 8 wounded	CARRY
Jun 13 (carry)	Cargo ship	TBD	Bab al-Mandeb, Yemen coast	Houthi double-missile (≥3)	1 seafarer severely injured	CARRY
Jun 12-13 overnight (carry)	Multiple commercial ships transiting Hormuz	Various; Trump "Indian Ships"	Strait of Hormuz	Iran OWA drones; all shot down	0 vessel casualties; CENTCOM "unimpeded"	CARRY
Jun 12 (carry)	Northern Israel military zone	Israel (territorial)	Northern Israel	Hezbollah drone strike	No injuries	CARRY
Jun 10 (carry)	MT JALVEER	Guinea-Bissau flag; 20 Indian crew	21nm NE Sohar, Gulf of Oman	9th CENTCOM Hellfire disablement	0 casualties	CARRY
Jun 10-11 (carry, ATTRIBUTION-DISPUTE-TIER)	M/T SETTEBELLO	Palau-flagged	~20nm NE Sohar	8th CENTCOM disablement; operator + crew accuse US of "lying"	24 Indian crew → 21 rescued + 3 KIA	CARRY (DISPUTE-TIER)
Jun 11 (carry)	US targets multi-site	US bases	Kuwait + Bahrain + Jordan	IRGC drone/missile salvo	18 targets claimed, 4 destroyed	CARRY
Jun 9-10 (carry)	Iranian air defenses, radar, C2 (~20 targets)	Iran (territorial)	Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Jask, Sirik	US Day-1 wave	Multi-site	CARRY
Jun 9 (carry)	US Army AH-64 Apache	US	Over Strait/off Oman	Iranian drone collision	Aircraft lost; pilots safe	CARRY
Jun 10 (carry)	South Lebanon (16 KIA)	Lebanon (territorial)	South Lebanon	Israeli strikes	UN to probe IHL	CARRY
Jun 8-9 (carry)	Two commercial vessels	TBD	Gulf of Aden	Houthi missile strikes	First "complete ban" enforcement	CARRY
Jun 8 (carry)	M/T MARIVEX	Palau	15NM NE Masirah	US precision; 7th disablement	Disabled; no injuries	CARRY
Jun 5 (carry)	Mina Al Fahal SBM	Oman	Near Muscat	Suspected drone	Resumed <48h	CARRY
Jun 3 (carry)	Kuwait airport + Ali Al-Salem + Fifth Fleet	Kuwait/Bahrain	Gulf	IRGC drones+BMs	1 KIA (Indian), 63 injured	CARRY
Mar 17-18 (carry)	South Pars / Ras Laffan / Asaluyeh	Iran/Qatar	Persian Gulf	Israeli + Iranian strikes	Major LNG/gas damage	CARRY

C157 attack-event summary: NO NEW MARITIME-KINETIC EVENT in ~15h window. Hormuz/Gulf-of-Oman quiescent restoration confirms ~15h further. NEW LEBANON-LEG KINETIC IN TERRITORIAL-TIER: Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit drone strikes reported on Lebanese territory; injuries pending — concretizes Iran-army "84 violations" count framework + sets context for "harsh response" warning at IRGC-army-tier. CENTCOM enforcement ledger consolidates at multi-source-tier (9 disabled / 139 diverted / 3 seized / 85 intercepted + 26 bypassed per Lloyd's List + $500M/day Iran cost) — formalization expands from C156 8/134/42 Stars-and-Stripes single-source. IMO ~20,000 seafarers / ~2,000 vessels stranded carries. DISHA Dahej arrival Jun 18 (tomorrow) pending. Lebanon-leg territorial-tier kinetic CONTINUES post-Iran-army warning — substance-tier risk-vector for kinetic-escalation activation. Iran-Israel direct-leg quiescent 16TH+ window.

4. Oil Prices

Benchmark	Jun 17 C157 US-Wed-AM / EU-midday	C156 c3 read	Pre-war	Peak (Apr 7)	Δ vs C156 c3
Brent (front)	~$80 ("near $80 per barrel," lowest since early March; longest losing streak of the year)	<$80 (~$79)	~$70	$138 (EIA Apr 7)	🟢 FLOOR HOLDS (~$0 intraday vs C156 close)
WTI (front)	~$78 ("below $78 per barrel," fourth+ consecutive decline session)	~$75.50	~$67	$138 / $117 Apr avg	🟡 ~+$2 retrace from intraday low, structurally flat vs C156 close
Brent-WTI spread	~$2-3 (Brent ~$80 - WTI ~$78)	~$3.50-4.00	~$3	—	🟡 spread narrows toward normal
VLCC TD3C	~$100K/day baseline carries; "3x" rule (Hormuz vs other tonnage) carries	~$100K	$117K pre-war	$423.7K Mar peak / $474K Apr	CARRY
War risk premium	0.7-0.8% non-flagged hull (VLCC voyage $220K-$1.1M per Bahrain Intelligence read); 2.5-5% US/UK/Israeli-nexus carries	0.8-1.5% / 2.5-5%	0.02-0.15%	—	🟡 NON-FLAGGED RANGE TRIM TO 0.7-0.8% READ
Goldman $100 "adverse case"	NOT breached; Brent distance to $100 ~$20 (~stable from C156 ~$21)	~$21	—	—	CARRY
Pre-war Brent distance	~$10 ($80 - $70) — ~stable from C156 ~$9	~$9	—	—	CARRY (intraday range)
Equity-tier (US indices)	Dow 51,671 all-time-high carries; Asia/EU open watch	Dow 51,671	—	—	CARRY
Price drivers C157	DISCHARGE FLOOR $77-82 CONSOLIDATES; cross-asset deal-credibility integration HARDENS at retail-tier (Polymarket Hormuz normalize-by-Jul-31 57.5% + ceasefire 91%); paths now: (a) $77-82 base case if MoU text release confirms + EIA WPSR confirms + Jun 19 Geneva actualizes + Iran-army Lebanon-warning de-escalates → discharge continues toward $75-80; (b) $82-87 if Iran-army "harsh response" activates Lebanon-leg kinetic OR Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalates to MoU-renegotiation OR IAEA Natanz-upgrade compounds substance-tier; (c) $87-95 if Jun 19 slips OR multi-leg compound + Lebanon kinetic retaliation; (d) $95-105 if Jun 19 empirically fails AND Khamenei disavows AND Lebanon retaliation activates.	C156 base case $77-82	—	—	🟢 BASE CASE CONSOLIDATES $77-82
EIA WPSR	Wed Jun 17 10:30 AM ET — TODAY; first SPR-specific direct-verify post-multi-tier verification	Jun 17 — 1 day	—	—	TODAY
OPEC+	Fourth quota hike Jun 7 carries; Saudi June quota 10.291 mb/d	Carries	—	—	CARRY
Saudi actual vs quota	~7.76 actual vs 10.291 quota → ~2.5 mb/d gap	Same	—	—	CARRY
Carrier surcharges	MSC all-Cape $1.2k/TEU; Maersk Hormuz suspended; Hapag-Lloyd suspended; CMA CGM suspended	Same	—	—	CARRY

Jun 17 C157 note: Lock 1 STRUCTURAL DISCHARGE FLOOR HOLDS $77-82 base case at US-Wed-AM / EU-midday reading. Brent ~$80 holds (longest losing streak of the year; fourth+ consecutive decline session per fxdailyreport-style consolidation read); WTI ~$78 holds (~$2 retrace from C156 intraday $75.50 low, structurally flat vs C156 close). Discharge integration HARDENS — no major retrace despite Iran-army "harsh response" warning OR IAEA Natanz-upgrade OR Trump-Netanyahu rebuke. Lock 1 status confirms C156 LOOSENING-tier shift. Equity-tier Dow ATH carries. Polymarket Hormuz normalize-by-Jul-31 = 57.5% — retail-tier institutional-confidence frame supports price-floor consolidation. War-risk insurance restart-clock RESTORES ~15h further toward Lloyd's 4-condition framework sustained-quiescence tier; only IRGC retraction + blockade-lift Jun 19 remain unresolved at substance-tier; G7 leaders' formal joint document UK-FR endorsement strengthens underwriter timing positioning further.

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status (C157 carryover):

Release	Announced	Barrels	Physical Delivery Status	Δ
IEA coordinated	Mar 11	400M	~280M+ consumed; G7 leaders' diversification commit at full-joint-document-tier may activate IEA coordination	🟢 G7 DIVERSIFICATION COMMIT NEW
US SPR	Mar+	172M committed; ~58M drawn; 357.1M floor	EIA WPSR Wed Jun 17 10:30 ET — TODAY; first SPR-specific direct-verify post-multi-tier verification	🟡 TODAY
Japan	Mar/Apr	80M; ~150 DOS (263M total gov't-held inventories per Statista/EIA cross-read); ¥300B/month	CARRY
South Korea	Mar/Apr	22.46M + SPR swap program	CARRY
India	Mar/Apr	21.4M ISPRL (5.33 MMT capacity, ~64% filled, ~3.37 MMT; ~5 day coverage at current fill, 9.5 days at full); Phase-II 5.33→11.83 MMT	🟡 PMFIAS REFRESH (~5 day coverage, ~64% filled)
China	—	Not releasing; ~108 DOS; bilateral-exception transits under IRGC-permission	🟢 ROLE CARRIES

Country reserves:

Country	Reserve Days	Emergency Actions	Δ
India	78 crude + ~5 SPR (current fill)	DISHA SCI-led anchor + Dahej Jun 18 ETA tomorrow; MoS DG Shipping 3,587+ repatriated carries; Sensex/Nifty +5% sustains	🟡 DAHEJ ETA TOMORROW
Japan	~150 (263M gov't-held; 3rd largest globally)	¥300B/month	CARRY
China	~108	Discounted Iranian/Russian; mediation role	CARRY
Philippines	45-day DOE baseline; PAL+Cebu visibility ends Jun 30 — 13 days	EO 110 holds; ₱20B Malampaya; 4-day gov't week; fuel prices "nearly tripled" since Feb 28	CARRY (13 days)
Pakistan	—	Schools closed; remote-work; PM Sharif formal Geneva host + Mojtaba Khamenei "Supreme Leader" recognition + Pezeshkian covenant-party + MBS/Erdogan/Tamim praised as covenant parties	🟢 8-TIER MEDIATOR EXPANSION
US	357.1M floor (Jun 3); ~58M drawn	EIA WPSR Wed Jun 17 10:30 ET TODAY — first SPR-specific direct-verify post-multi-tier verification	🟡 TODAY

SPR runway math (C157): 357.1M floor / ~58M drawn / ~36 weeks max-pace pending EIA WPSR TODAY. Carries from C156. G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document explicit "diversification" commit at multi-leader-tier — first formal G7-tier signal on energy-supply restructuring post-Hormuz; pre-positions IEA coordination strategy framework activation. SPR clock running at current pace until deal-implementation mechanics confirm post-Jun 19 CENTCOM operational reset.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity (mb/d)	Utilization (mb/d)	Spare (mb/d)	Status	Δ
Saudi East-West Pipeline	7.0 pipe / 4.5 Yanbu port	~5.0	~2.0	Yanbu-bound bottleneck carries; Yemen-leg skiff carry pending	CARRY
UAE ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah)	1.8	~1.5	~0.3	Fujairah operational; UAE G7+3 Tuesday participation carries	CARRY
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan	0.4-0.5 (constrained)	~230K bpd total via route (90K Basra + 30K KRG + ~110K Kirkuk-direct) per Shafaq/Kurdistan24 mid-May read; refresh: Basra-via-Ceyhan 140K bpd target within 2 weeks	~0.1-0.2	Contract expires Jul 27 — 40 days; Hurriyet: Iraq seeks 1-year extension	CARRY
Iraq Basra (gulf-anchor)	3.4	~0.0-0.3 (terminals operational, throughput dependent on Hormuz)	—	Operational; June MTD ~7M bbl matches Apr+May combined	CARRY
Oman ports (Duqm, Salalah)	0.4	~0.2-0.3	~0.1-0.2	Operational; SETTEBELLO retrospective coverage carry-dispute-tier carries	CARRY
Egypt SUMED	2.4	constrained on origin	—	Limited use; G7+3 Egypt Tuesday participation carries	CARRY
Cape of Good Hope rerouting	volume-dependent	growing	—	Shipping diversion absorbs volume; MSC all-Cape $1.2K/TEU	CARRY

GAP metric (C157): Total bypass capacity utilization ~7-8 mb/d vs ~20 mb/d pre-war Hormuz volume = GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable. Carries from C156 — no infrastructure-tier change in C157 ~15h window. G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document explicit "diversification" commit may generate substance-tier coordination on bypass infrastructure utilization at multi-sovereign-leader-tier post-Jun-19; UK-FR mission "ready to deploy" — Hormuz reopen capability timeline closes 0-180d window post-Jun-19 + IRGC retraction.

7. Maritime Insurance

Parameter	Current	Δ vs C156 c3
War risk premium %	0.7-0.8% non-flagged hull (Bahrain Intelligence read; $220K-$1.1M per VLCC voyage); 2.5-5% US/UK/Israeli-nexus carries	🟡 RANGE TRIM TO 0.7-0.8%
P&I coverage	NO Gulf re-entry Day 70; widest-since-JWC high-risk-area listing; Lloyd's 4-condition framework; quiescence restores ~15h further; G7 leaders' formal joint document + UK-FR endorsement + 8-tier mediator strengthen positioning further	🟢 QUIESCENCE ~15h FURTHER + G7 FULL ENDORSEMENT
VLCC day rates	~$100K/day; April TD3C $474K Baltic peak	CARRY
DFC reinsurance	$20B program holds; Chubb lead partner; G7 leaders' full joint document + UK-FR endorsement shift underwriter timing favorably; Iran-army Lebanon-warning + IAEA Natanz-upgrade temper	🟢 MULTI-TIER POSITIONING IMPROVES; LEBANON-WARNING + IAEA TEMPER
BIMCO surcharge	Formalized; carries	CARRY
Crew refusal rate	SETTEBELLO 3 KIA carries; IMO 14+ cumulative; ~20,000 seafarers stranded formalized at IMO-tier	CARRY
Fixture cancellation	Persistent; Maersk + CMA CGM + MSC + Hapag-Lloyd suspensions hold	CARRY
Vessel-kinetic anchor	Hormuz-leg quiescence restores ~15h further from C156; Yemen-leg Jun 15 skiff carry (~48h+)	🟢 QUIESCENCE RESTORES

Lock 3 framework (C157): P&I re-entry pathway HARDENS at multi-tier via G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document (full leaders' tier document, first time post-deal) + UK-FR endorsement formalized + EU VDL toll-free at EC-presidency-tier + Pakistan formal Geneva host + Mojtaba "Supreme Leader" recognition + 8-tier mediator expansion (MBS + Erdogan + Tamim + Pezeshkian) + DISHA SCI-led anchor + Iran-Israel 16TH+ window. Iran-army 84-violation Lebanon-warning + "harsh response" framework + IAEA Natanz underground direct-impact upgrade + Trump-Netanyahu rebuke + IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+ + Polymarket permanent-deal ~13% carries temper underwriter timing. Lloyd's 4-condition framework status: (1) substance-tier ratification — ACHIEVED at Deputy-FM-tier; (2) IRGC closure-retraction — UNRESOLVED Day 7+; (3) sustained quiescence — RESTORES ~15h further; (4) blockade-lift operationalized — DEFERRED to Jun 19. Underwriter review window typically 7-14 days post sustained quiescence + Jun 19 actualization + IRGC retraction. No Lloyd's re-quote in C157 window.

8. Shadow Fleet

Carries from C156. CENTCOM 139/9/3/85 ledger consolidates at multi-source-tier (Wikipedia "2026 US naval blockade of Iran" + The Hill + Stars and Stripes + Lloyd's List); 26 vessels bypassed blockade per Lloyd's List; blockade reportedly costing Iran $500M daily. SETTEBELLO attribution-dispute-tier at operator/crew-tier carries. Shadow fleet ~1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet) carries. Oil sanctions waiver per MoU 14-point text would structurally collapse shadow-fleet premium if Jun 19 Geneva actualizes — SETTEBELLO attribution-dispute-tier opens secondary legal/diplomatic-tier risk if MoU implementation includes shadow-fleet enforcement waiver. No new IRGC friendly-fire on shadow tankers in C157 window. VP Vance MoU-text-release-Wed potential exposes substance-tier sanctions-waiver scope at public-substance-tier verification — shadow-fleet premium re-pricing window opens 0-12h.

9. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Key Actions	Risk Level	Δ
US	G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document + Trump "more responsible" Netanyahu rebuke + Vance MoU-text-release-Wed + blockade-operational-til-Jun-19 + CENTCOM 139/9/3/85 ledger; SETTEBELLO attribution-dispute-tier carries; VP Vance + Trump Geneva ceremony attendees	Multilateral consolidation + presidential-tier Netanyahu rebuke + MoU-text-release window opens	HIGH	🟢 G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT; 🔴 TRUMP-NETANYAHU REBUKE
Israel	Netanyahu "not party" carries; TRUMP PUBLIC REBUKE — "more responsible" + "vicious" + "too much"; Likud reportedly scraps election campaign highlighting Netanyahu-Trump ties; Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit drone strikes reported continuing	Substance-tier outlier-actor positioning hardens at US-pres-rebuke-tier	HIGH	🔴 TRUMP-NETANYAHU REBUKE NEW
Iran	Iran army: 84 Israeli Lebanon violations + "harsh response" warning; Gharibabadi Deputy-FM confirmation carries; implementation-deferral till Jun 19 carries; Iran FM Araghchi Lebanon-MoU-conditioning carries; Mojtaba Khamenei formally addressed as "Supreme Leader" by PK-PM-tier; Pezeshkian covenant-party-tier; Ghalibaf Parl-Speaker-tier Geneva attendance carries; FM Araghchi confirmed Geneva attendee; Iran International 8-of-10 carry-doubt-tier persists; SNSC Zolghadr + Mehr $24B carry; IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+	Iran-army Lebanon warning + Mojtaba "Supreme Leader" recognition tier	HIGH	🟢 MOJTABA-SL-RECOGNITION; 🔴 IRAN-ARMY 84 VIOLATIONS + "HARSH RESPONSE"
Saudi	OPEC+ fourth quota hike Jun 7 carries; quota gap ~2.5 mb/d; MBS praised as covenant-party at PK-host-tier — 8-tier mediator expansion	Output role + MBS mediator-tier expansion	MEDIUM	🟢 MBS COVENANT-PARTY RECOGNITION
UAE	ADCOP operational; Fujairah; G7+3 Tuesday participation carries	Bypass operational + G7+3 carries	MEDIUM	CARRY
Qatar	LNG force majeure mid-June overdue; LNG export 17% offline; G7+3 participation carries; Emir Tamim praised as covenant-party at PK-host-tier	Mediator role + Emir-tier covenant-party recognition	HIGH	🟢 TAMIM COVENANT-PARTY RECOGNITION; CARRY (LNG overdue)
Oman	Mina Al Fahal Jun 5 incident resumed; Duqm/Salalah operational; SETTEBELLO retrospective coverage carry	Backup channel	MEDIUM	CARRY
Iraq	K-C contract Jul 27; ~230K bpd via route; Hurriyet: 1-year extension sought	Bypass operational	MEDIUM	CARRY
Kuwait	Jun 3 strike carries	Recovery operational	MEDIUM	CARRY
Bahrain	Fifth Fleet HQ; Jun 3 strike carries	Recovery operational	MEDIUM	CARRY
China	Late-stage Khamenei mediation entry carries; ~108 DOS; bilateral-exception transits	Mediation role	MEDIUM	CARRY
India	78 crude DOS; ~611 Indian seafarers; DISHA SCI-led anchor carries; Dahej Jun 18 ETA tomorrow; DG Shipping 3,587+ repatriated; Sensex/Nifty +5%; MEA "Highest Alert"	DISHA Dahej arrival pending tomorrow	HIGH	🟡 DAHEJ ETA TOMORROW
Japan	~150 DOS (263M gov't-held — 3rd largest globally); ¥300B/month	Carrying	MEDIUM	CARRY
South Korea	22.46M SPR	Carrying	MEDIUM	CARRY
Philippines	Jun 30 visibility deadline — 13 days; EO 110 holds; fuel prices "nearly tripled" since Feb 28; diesel 130 pesos; LPG 24-day reserve	Deadline tightens	HIGH	CARRY (13 days)
Pakistan	Schools closed; PM Sharif co-announces deal; PAKISTAN FORMALLY HOSTS GENEVA JUN 19 + MOJTABA "SUPREME LEADER" RECOGNITION + PEZESHKIAN COVENANT-PARTY + MBS/ERDOGAN/TAMIM COVENANT-PARTY-RECOGNITION	Mediator-host TIER EXPANSION — 8-tier mediator chain	MEDIUM	🟢 8-TIER MEDIATOR EXPANSION
Thailand/Vietnam/Indonesia/Myanmar	Cohort carries	Holds	MEDIUM	CARRY
Lebanon	Gharibabadi "all fronts" cessation carries; Hezbollah Jun 4 rejection carries; CBC: both sides week Jun 22 talks; Lebanese army CBC warning carries; Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit drone strikes reported continuing — Lebanon-leg HARDENS at territorial-kinetic-continuation-tier post-Iran-army "84 violations" warning	Lebanon-leg HARDENS at kinetic-continuation-tier	CRITICAL	🔴 KINETIC CONTINUATION TIER
Switzerland/Geneva	Jun 19 venue ratified — 2 days; Pakistan formally hosts ceremony; VP Vance + Ghalibaf + Araghchi confirmed attendees	Hosts ceremony with PK formal host	LOW	CARRY
Yemen	Jun 15 0735 UTC skiff carries pending attribution; MARAD 2026-006 active; Houthi positioning post-deal-announcement uncertain	Kinetic pending	HIGH	CARRY
France	Macron at G7 endorses MoU carries; Charles de Gaulle off Arabian Peninsula since mid-May carries; G7 leaders' joint document formally endorses UK-FR initiative role; Macron approached 35 countries	UK-FR endorsement formalized in G7 document	LOW	🟢 G7 FORMAL UK-FR ENDORSEMENT
UK	RFA Lyme Bay loaded with autonomous mine-hunting drones late May; UK-FR mission "READY TO DEPLOY" — co-chair with France; G7 leaders' joint document formalizes endorsement	Mine-clearing READY-TO-DEPLOY + G7-endorsement	LOW	🟢 G7 FORMAL UK-FR ENDORSEMENT
Germany	G7 leaders' joint document signatory — "historic opportunity" + "toll-free"	G7 full joint document participant	LOW	🟢 G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT
Italy	G7 leaders' joint document signatory	G7 full joint document participant	LOW	🟢 G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT
Canada	G7 leaders' joint document signatory; Carney "game changer"	G7 full joint document participant + Carney leader-tier-endorsement	LOW	🟢 G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT
Japan (G7 signatory)	G7 leaders' joint document signatory	G7 full joint document participant	LOW	🟢 G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT NEW
Egypt	G7+3 Tuesday participation carries	G7+3 multilateral participation	LOW	CARRY
EU (Commission)	VDL: "Strait must reopen, freedom of navigation — toll-free"; calls for Lebanon ceasefire	EC-presidency-tier formal alignment	LOW	CARRY (consolidates into G7 toll-free)
G7+3 (G7 + Egypt + Qatar + UAE)	Multilateral consolidation escalates to G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document at full-leaders-tier	8-tier mediator chain	LOW	🟢 G7 FULL JOINT DOCUMENT
Turkey	Erdogan praised as covenant-party at PK-host-tier — 8-tier mediator expansion	Erdogan covenant-party recognition	LOW	🟢 ERDOGAN COVENANT-PARTY RECOGNITION

10. Policy Actions

Date	Actor	Action	Δ
Jun 17 (early)	G7 leaders (UK+FR+DE+IT+CA+JP+US)	G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document — "historic opportunity"; "right to free passage without tolls" = "bedrock of international trade"; UK-FR initiative role endorsement; energy-diversification commit	🟢 NEW (G7 leaders' formal joint document at full-leaders-tier)
Jun 16-17	Iran army	Formally counts 84 Israeli ceasefire violations in S. Lebanon since Sunday; "expect a harsh response if attacks continue"	🔴 NEW (IRGC-army-tier formal violation count + warning)
Jun 16-17	Trump	"I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. They should have been able to do the job faster"; last weekend's Beirut strikes "vicious" and "too much"; Netanyahu must be "more responsible"; Deal "can withstand" Lebanon attacks	🔴 NEW (US-pres-tier explicit Israel-rebuke; first since deal announcement)
Jun 16-17	VP Vance	"The president said by the latest Friday, possibly as early as tomorrow, we're going to release the memorandum of understanding text"; simultaneously downplays release overall	🟡 NEW (MoU-text-release-Wed possibility window opens)
Jun 17	IAEA	Satellite-update: subsequent analysis indicates direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls; upgrades earlier "no indication" assessment	🔴 NEW (IAEA-verification-tier Natanz-underground escalation)
Jun 15-17	PM Sharif (PK)	Praises Mojtaba Khamenei as "Supreme Leader" + Pezeshkian as Iran-Pres covenant-party + MBS (KSA) + Erdogan (Turkey) + Emir Tamim (Qatar) as covenant-party-praised; PK formal Geneva host	🟢 NEW (8-tier mediator expansion + Mojtaba SL-recognition + Pezeshkian covenant-party)
Jun 17	Carney (Canadian PM)	US-Iran deal "game changer" in region and beyond	🟢 NEW (Canadian-PM-leader-tier endorsement)
Jun 16-17	Times of Israel	Likud reportedly scraps election campaign highlighting Netanyahu-Trump close ties post-deal	🟡 NEW (Israeli-domestic-political-tier signal of Trump-rebuke impact)
Jun 16 (carry)	G7 leaders (UK+FR+DE+IT+CA)	Joint statement MoU = "moment of opportunity"	CARRY (escalates to full leaders' document Jun 17)
Jun 16 (carry)	EU Commission President von der Leyen	"Strait must reopen, freedom of navigation — toll-free"; calls for Lebanon ceasefire	CARRY (consolidates into G7 toll-free document)
Jun 16 (carry)	Pakistan	Pakistan formally hosts Geneva Jun 19 ceremony	CARRY (extends to MBS + Erdogan + Tamim covenant-party recognition)
Jun 16 (carry)	UK-France	"READY TO DEPLOY" — ~20 countries contributing, 4 in-region	CARRY (formal G7 endorsement Jun 17)
Jun 16 (carry)	Trump G7	"Iran back in rearview mirror" + "not pouring any money into Iran"	CARRY
Jun 16 (carry)	CENTCOM ledger	8 disabled / 134 diverted / 42 humanitarian passages → updated to 9 disabled / 139 diverted / 3 seized / 85 intercepted + 26 bypassed per Lloyd's	🟡 CONSOLIDATES MULTI-SOURCE
Jun 16 (carry)	Polymarket	Permanent peace ~13%; ceasefire 91%	CARRY (Hormuz normalize-by-Jul-31 57.5% added)
Jun 15-16 (carry)	Antiwar.com	Lebanon obstacle wire-corroboration	CARRY (escalates to Iran-army 84-violation formal count)
Jun 15 (carry)	Trump at G7	"Deal's all signed" carries	CARRY
Jun 15 (carry)	Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi	MULTI-WIRE CONFIRMS DEAL; signing Jun 19	CARRY
Jun 15 (carry)	Iran Fars news agency	"Marine traffic regulated by Iran in coordination with Oman"	CARRY
Jun 15 (carry)	Iran Mehr News	Publishes 14-point draft MoU; $24B Iranian assets released	CARRY
Jun 14 (carry)	Trump	"Deal with Iran is now complete"; blockade-lift order; 14-point MoU; Jun 19 Switzerland venue	CARRY
May 29 (carry-doubt-tier)	Iran International	Draft MoU breaches 8 of 10 Khamenei-approved conditions	🟡 CARRY-DOUBT-TIER

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend	Signal	C157 Δ
Conflict day count	110 (Feb 28 baseline)	→	War continues; ceasefire Day 70	+1 day
Iran civilians killed (cumulative)	1,701+ HRANA STALE / 3,468 Foundation of Martyrs May 5	→	Carryover	CARRY
Iran displaced (cumulative)	~3.2M	→	Carryover	CARRY
US KIA/wounded (cumulative)	13 / 381+	→	No new in window	CARRY
Strait transits/day	~0 normalized per straits.live Day 108; ~15/24h IRGC-permission baseline carries; DISHA single-vessel SCI-led institutional anchor carries; Dahej Jun 18 tomorrow	→	DISHA Dahej ETA tomorrow	🟡 DAHEJ TOMORROW
Brent crude ($/bbl)	~$80 (lowest since first week of March; longest losing streak of the year)	↓	DISCHARGE FLOOR HOLDS C156 LEVEL	🟢 FLOOR HOLDS
WTI crude ($/bbl)	~$78 (fourth+ consecutive decline session)	↓	Spread narrows to ~$2-3	🟡 ~+$2 retrace, structurally flat
VLCC day rates	~$100K/day baseline	→	April $474K Baltic peak; 3x rule (Hormuz vs other tonnage)	CARRY
War risk premium (%)	0.7-0.8% non-flagged; 2.5-5% US/UK/Israeli-nexus	→	Range trim to 0.7-0.8%	🟡 NON-FLAGGED TRIMS
Vessels attacked (cumulative)	~46+ since Feb 28 (IMO baseline) + carry events	→	No new in C157	CARRY
Seafarers killed/missing (cumulative)	14 fatalities since Feb 28 (IMO) + SETTEBELLO 3 KIA carry; Jun 15 Yemen pending	→	C155 +1 KIA +2 missing overfire reverted	CARRY
Seafarers stranded	~20,000 (Stars and Stripes IMO read)	→	Stranded figure formalized at IMO-tier	CARRY
Vessels stranded	~2,000 in Hormuz area (Stars and Stripes IMO read); ~354 anchored/stopped straits.live; 60 VLCCs MEG	→	~2K formalized at IMO-tier	CARRY
IEA release (barrels committed)	400M (Mar 11)	→	~280M+ consumed; G7 leaders' diversification commit NEW	🟢 G7 DIVERSIFICATION COMMIT
US SPR release (barrels)	172M committed; ~58M drawn	→	EIA WPSR direct-verify TODAY 10:30 ET	🟡 TODAY
Japan SPR release (barrels)	80M (263M gov't-held; 3rd largest globally)	→	~150 DOS	CARRY
Iraq oil exports (mb/d)	~230K bpd via K-C (Shafaq mid-May); ~1.4 mb/d crude (atlanticcouncil)	→	Basra-via-Ceyhan 140K bpd target	CARRY
Escort timeline (days to operational)	READY-TO-DEPLOY (UK-FR mission, ~20 contributing, 4 in-region; G7 leaders' joint document endorsement formalized)	→	G7 endorsement formalizes	🟢 G7 FORMAL UK-FR ENDORSEMENT
E-W pipeline utilization (mb/d)	~5.0 / 7.0 cap	→	Yanbu bottleneck carries	CARRY
Total bypass capacity (mb/d)	~7-8 utilization	→	No infrastructure change in window	CARRY
Supply gap (GAP: X mb/d)	GAP: 12-13 mb/d unbridgeable	→	Carries	CARRY
India reserve days	78 crude + ~5 SPR (current fill, 9.5 days at full)	→	DISHA Dahej Jun 18 arrival pending tomorrow	🟡 DAHEJ TOMORROW
China reserve days	~108	→	Bilateral exception under IRGC-permission	CARRY
Ships trapped in Gulf	~2,000 (Stars and Stripes IMO read); ~354 straits.live	→	~2K formalized	CARRY
Mine threat level	CRITICAL (JMIC formal)	→	Pentagon 6-month carries	CARRY
IRGC posture	Formal closure Day 7+ unretracted	→	Doctrine-vs-deal-text bifurcation persists	🔴 CARRY DAY 7+
P&I insurance status	NO Gulf re-entry Day 70; quiescence restores ~15h further; G7 leaders' formal joint document + UK-FR endorsement strengthen positioning	→	Lloyd's 4-condition: 1 ACHIEVED, 1 unresolved, 1 restores, 1 deferred to Jun 19	🟢 POSITIONING STRENGTHENS
Qatar LNG status	Force majeure mid-June overdue; LNG export 17% offline; G7+3 Qatar participation may resolve; Emir Tamim covenant-party recognition	→	Overdue; G7+3 + Tamim recognition	🟢 TAMIM RECOGNITION; CARRY (overdue)
Dual chokepoint status	Hormuz + Red Sea simultaneous disruption carries	→	Jun 15 Yemen skiff carry pending attribution	CARRY
Ceasefire status (Polymarket)	CEASEFIRE BY JUN 30: 91% YES (carry); PERMANENT PEACE BY JUN 30: ~13% YES (carry); HORMUZ NORMALIZE BY JUL-31: 57.5%	↑ stable / ↓ stable / NEW	Retail-tier bifurcation persists	🟡 HORMUZ NORMALIZE FRAME NEW
Diplomatic channels	8-tier mediator chain: US-PK(formal-host + Mojtaba SL recognition)-QA(Tamim)-CN-G7(full-joint-document)-G7+3(Egypt/Qatar/UAE)-EU(VDL)-KSA(MBS)-Turkey(Erdogan)	→	Mediator-tier 8-tier expansion	🟢 8-TIER EXPANSION
SE Asia crisis status	Philippines Jun 30 — 13 days; Pakistan PM Sharif co-announces + formal Geneva host + 8-tier mediator expansion	→	PK 8-tier expansion	🟢 PK 8-TIER EXPANSION

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle

G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document — "historic opportunity" + "right to free passage without tolls" = "bedrock of international trade" + UK-FR initiative role endorsement + energy-diversification commit; full leaders' joint document at multi-sovereign-leader-tier; first time post-deal-announcement.
Iran army formal count: 84 Israeli ceasefire violations in S. Lebanon since Sunday + "harsh response" warning — concretizes Lebanon-leg as substance-tier MoU-violation-count + explicit-kinetic-trigger framework at IRGC-army-tier.
Trump publicly rebukes Netanyahu over Lebanon — "more responsible" + "vicious" + "too much"; first explicit US-pres-rebuke of Israeli-PM-tier since deal announcement; "Deal can withstand Israel's Lebanon attacks."
VP Vance: MoU text release as early as Wednesday (today) — substance-tier transparency-pre-signing window opens 0-12h.
IAEA Jun 17 satellite-update: direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls — upgrades earlier "no indication" assessment; Lock 6 substance-tier escalation at IAEA-verification-tier.
Regional mediator-tier broadens to 8-tier — PK PM Sharif praises Mojtaba Khamenei as "Supreme Leader" + Pezeshkian as Iran-Pres covenant-party + MBS (KSA) + Erdogan (Turkey) + Emir Tamim (Qatar) as covenant-party-praised.
Brent $80 floor holds discharge / WTI $78 floor — no major retrace despite Iran-army Lebanon-warning + IAEA Natanz-upgrade; discharge floor $77-82 consolidates.
Polymarket Hormuz normalize-by-Jul-31 = 57.5% — institutional-confidence retail-tier frame; permanent-deal ~13% carries; ceasefire 91% carries.
CENTCOM ledger consolidates at multi-source-tier — 9 disabled / 139 diverted / 3 seized / 85 intercepted + 26 bypassed per Lloyd's List + $500M/day Iran cost.
Iran-Israel direct-leg 16TH+ window extends ~15h through C157 cycle.
Likud reportedly scraps election campaign highlighting Netanyahu-Trump close ties — Israeli-domestic-political-tier signal of Trump-rebuke impact at first-time-post-deal-tier.
Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit Israeli drone strikes on Lebanese territory reported — Lebanon-leg kinetic-continuation-tier persists despite Iran-army "harsh response" warning + Trump-Netanyahu rebuke.

(b) Structural Locks Status

Lock 1 (Price): LOOSENING — Brent $80 floor holds C156 discharge; WTI $78 holds; discharge floor $77-82 consolidates; no major retrace despite Lebanon-warning + IAEA Natanz-upgrade.
Lock 2 (Supply): HOLDING — IRGC closure unretracted Day 7+; DISHA Dahej arrival tomorrow; Iraq K-C ~230K bpd carries; UK-FR mission ready-to-deploy strengthens reopening capability tier with G7 endorsement.
Lock 3 (Insurance): LOOSENING-tier holds — quiescence restores ~15h further; G7 leaders' formal joint document + UK-FR endorsement + EU VDL + PK formal Geneva host + 8-tier mediator expansion strengthen multi-tier positioning; Lloyd's 4-condition: 1 ACHIEVED, 1 unresolved, 1 restores, 1 deferred Jun 19.
Lock 4 (Labor): HOLDING — SETTEBELLO attribution-dispute-tier carries; ~20K seafarers stranded carries; no new crew casualties in C157 window.
Lock 5 (Duration): LOOSENING — Geneva Jun 19 ceremony in 2 days with PK formal host + 8-tier mediator + VP Vance + Ghalibaf + Araghchi confirmed + MBS/Erdogan/Tamim/Pezeshkian recognized covenant-parties.
Lock 6 (Nuclear): TIGHTENING (LOCAL) — IAEA Jun 17 satellite-update direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls upgrades earlier assessment; pre-positions 60-day nuclear-talks framework risk at Iran-uranium-stockpile-tier.
Lock 7 (Geographic): HOLDING — front-tally stable (Hormuz/Gulf-of-Oman, Lebanon-leg, Yemen/Red Sea, Iran-Israel direct); no new country enters.
Lock 8 (Capability): LOOSENING (strengthens) — UK-FR mission "READY TO DEPLOY" + G7 leaders' joint document endorsement formalizes; ~20 countries contributing, 4 in-region; RFA Lyme Bay loaded late May.
Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint): HOLDING — Yemen-leg Jun 15 skiff carries pending attribution; no new Red Sea kinetic in C157.
Lock 10 (Leadership): LOOSENING (NEW) — Mojtaba Khamenei formally addressed as "Supreme Leader" by PK-host-tier; Pezeshkian explicitly covenant-party at PK-host-tier; pre-positions Khamenei-tier sign-off at Geneva ceremony; Iran International 8-of-10 carry-doubt-tier persists at substance-divergence.
Lock 11 (Energy Infrastructure): HOLDING — Qatar LNG force majeure overdue; South Pars/Ras Laffan repair 3-5 years per Qatari officials; G7 leaders' diversification commit may activate IEA coordination strategy framework.

Net lock pattern: 5 LOOSENING (Lock 1, Lock 3, Lock 5, Lock 8, Lock 10), 1 TIGHTENING-LOCAL (Lock 6 — Natanz IAEA-upgrade), 5 HOLDING. Structural-discharge convergence at price + insurance + duration + capability + leadership tiers; structural-divergence persists at IRGC closure (Lock 2 sub-component) + Lebanon-leg substance-tier (Iran-army 84-violation count + warning) + Natanz IAEA-upgrade.

(c) Critical Watch

MoU text release — 0-12h window (today possible per Vance): substance-tier transparency-pre-signing exposes $24B mechanism + sanctions waiver scope + Lebanon-cessation language + nuclear-talks framework.
EIA WPSR Jun 17 10:30 AM ET — TODAY: First SPR-specific direct-verify post-multi-tier verification.
Iran-army "harsh response" Lebanon activation watch — 0-72h: If Israel resumes Lebanon strikes (Mansouri + Aaziyyeh + Barashit kinetic-continuation-tier signals already activating), Iran-army has 84-violation count + retaliation-warning framework pre-positioned.
Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalation watch — 0-12h: Whether US-pres-tier escalates beyond Lebanon-rebuke to MoU-renegotiation tier OR Israel responds with substance-tier defection signal.
IAEA Natanz-upgrade Iran-side response watch — 0-12h: Iran-side may activate finding to pre-position nuclear-talks substance-leverage at uranium-stockpile-tier.
DISHA Dahej arrival — tomorrow Jun 18: First positive-transit institutional-anchor arrival actualization.
Polymarket permanent-deal trajectory — 0-24h: Does ~13% probability stabilize or crater below 10%.
Brent close — overnight Asia + EU-morning: Does $77-82 base case hold or break below $77 / retrace $82-87.
Geneva Jun 19 ceremony — 2 days: Single most important structural confirmation event.
IRGC closure-retraction watch — 0-48h pre-Jun-19: Day 7+ unretracted; pre-Jun-19 retraction would consolidate Lock 2.
Philippines Jun 30 — 13 days: Fuel-visibility deadline.
Iraq K-C Jul 27 — 40 days: Contract expiration; 1-year extension sought.

(d) Net Assessment

C157 is the MULTILATERAL-CONSOLIDATION + LEBANON-STRAIN COMPOUND CYCLE where the institutional-tier consolidates at multi-sovereign-leader-tier via G7 leaders' formal joint outcome document (first time post-deal-announcement with explicit "toll-free" anchor + UK-FR endorsement + energy-diversification commit) while the substance-tier hardens negative compound risk at three structural-divergence layers: (1) Iran-army formal count of 84 Israeli ceasefire violations in S. Lebanon since Sunday + explicit "harsh response" warning — IRGC-army-tier formal violation-count + kinetic-trigger framework, (2) Trump public rebuke of Netanyahu — first US-presidential-tier explicit Israel-rebuke since deal announcement, with simultaneous deal-protection ("can withstand") + outlier-actor positioning, and (3) IAEA Jun 17 satellite-update upgrading earlier "no indication" assessment to direct impacts on Natanz underground enrichment halls — Lock 6 substance-tier escalation pre-positioning 60-day nuclear-talks framework risk.

The 8-tier mediator chain (US-PK-QA-CN-G7-G7+3-EU-KSA-Turkey) now operates with Pakistan formally hosting + Mojtaba Khamenei "Supreme Leader" recognition at PK-host-tier + Pezeshkian explicitly covenant-party + MBS/Erdogan/Tamim covenant-party-praised — broadest mediator-tier in tracker history. The Lloyd's 4-condition P&I framework continues to harden via sustained quiescence restoring ~15h further; only IRGC closure-retraction (Day 7+ unresolved) and blockade-lift (deferred to Jun 19) remain unresolved. VP Vance's MoU-text-release-Wed signal opens a substance-tier transparency-pre-signing window 0-12h that may consolidate institutional confidence pre-ceremony OR expose dispute-tier specifics ($24B mechanism, sanctions waiver scope, Lebanon-cessation language, nuclear-talks framework) to public-substance-tier verification before Geneva signing.

Forward path through 0-72h: Brent base case sustains $77-82 discharge floor if MoU text release confirms substance + EIA WPSR confirms inventory math + Jun 19 Geneva actualizes with all confirmed attendees + Iran-army Lebanon-warning de-escalates (i.e., Israel pauses Mansouri-tier kinetic continuation); partial retrace $82-87 if Iran-army "harsh response" activates Lebanon-leg kinetic retaliation OR Trump-Netanyahu rebuke escalates to MoU-renegotiation tier OR IAEA Natanz-upgrade compounds Iran-side reservations at 60-day nuclear-talks-tier OR Polymarket permanent-deal craters below 10%. Beyond 72h: $87-95 if Jun 19 slips OR multi-leg compound (Yemen-leg + Lebanon-leg + Hormuz-leg kinetic re-emergence); $95-105 if Jun 19 empirically fails AND Khamenei-tier publicly explicit per Iran International 8-of-10 framing AND Iran activates Lebanon-leg retaliation. Single load-bearing structural lock — Iran-Israel direct-leg 16TH+ window — continues durability through C157 ~15h delta; if this lock breaks, all downside scenarios accelerate. Key uncertainty: whether the multi-tier institutional consolidation (G7 leaders' full joint document + 8-tier mediator + UK-FR endorsement formalized + Mojtaba "Supreme Leader" recognition) is sufficient to absorb the substance-tier negative tiers (Iran-army Lebanon-warning + Trump-Netanyahu rebuke + IAEA Natanz-upgrade) through the Jun 19 Geneva ceremony confirmation event. The Lebanon-leg has now activated formal-count + warning-framework + kinetic-continuation-tier (Mansouri/Aaziyyeh/Barashit) — a kinetic-retaliation activation by IRGC-army would be the single highest-impact 0-72h risk-vector.

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