Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-06-02 · Cycle 1 (C120)

War Day: 95 | Ceasefire Day: 57 (still nominally in force on US side; Iran's exchange halt holding through Tuesday open) | Cycle: C120 (C1 of 2026-06-02)
Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes HORMUZ X-PULSE stalest April 29 (Day 33, 34 days stale). Full 13-topic web sweep this cycle.
Baseline: C119 / 2026-06-01-C3 (late-session pivot capture: Tasnim halt + Bab el-Mandeb agenda + Lebanon ceasefire counter-pivot).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-06-02 ~07:00 UTC): C120 reads the 24h aftermath of C119's late-session pivot. Iran's formal halt of the MOU exchange via Tasnim holds into Tuesday Asia/Europe open. Trump declared on Truth Social that indirect talks with Iran are continuing at "rapid pace" and said he expects a "deal on truce and Hormuz over the next week" (ABC News) — but Iran has not commented or confirmed resumption. Foreign Minister Araghchi reinforced the halt: "the ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts… its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts." Lebanon's partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah (announced late June 1) is already in violation overnight: 2 projectiles from Lebanon intercepted by Israel early Tuesday June 2; Netanyahu confirmed continued IDF operations in south Lebanon (Zaharani River advance — deepest in 25 years). IRGC Quds Force commander explicitly threatened Iran/allies' Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb maritime moves "if Israeli ops in Lebanon and Gaza continue." Markets faded the C119 spike: Brent settled $94.58 (−0.42% intraday); WTI ~$91-92 band. The C119 close-equivalent of Brent $94.66 holds within ~$0.10 — markets pricing the halt is sticky but not kinetic-yet.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE

• 🔴🔴 IRAN MOU HALT HOLDS — TRUMP "RAPID PACE" UNCONFIRMED BY TEHRAN: Trump posted on Truth Social that indirect Iran talks continue at "rapid pace" and told ABC News he expects "a deal on truce and Hormuz over the next week" — but Iran has not commented or confirmed any resumption. Araghchi via Tasnim: ceasefire is "unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts." Newsweek frames the gap explicitly ("Trump says rapid pace; Tehran warns suspended"). The C119 Tasnim halt structurally holds through the first 18-24 hours with no Iranian retraction.
• 🟡 LEBANON PARTIAL CEASEFIRE — VIOLATIONS ALREADY OVERNIGHT: Per Rappler/Express Tribune/Axios: agreement restricts Israeli strikes on Beirut + Dahiyeh and obliges Hezbollah to halt attacks on Israel — but does NOT end the conflict per Lebanese embassy in Washington. June 2 early hours: 2 projectiles from Lebanon intercepted; Netanyahu confirms IDF ground operations push to Zaharani River (deepest 25-year incursion). Lebanon to seek expanded ceasefire in Washington talks Wednesday June 3. The reset-trigger that satisfies Iran's stated precondition is partial and contested — not a clean unfreeze signal.
• 🔴 IRGC QUDS FORCE — EXPLICIT DUAL-CHOKEPOINT MARITIME WARNING: Quds Force commander stated Israeli ops in Lebanon and Gaza "could lead Iran and its allies to take steps that could affect maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz." First Quds-level (not just Tasnim) dual-chokepoint maritime escalation framing. Reinforces C119's Bab el-Mandeb agenda from a different IRGC command channel.
• 🔴 NEWSWEEK: "IRAN TALKS BACK ON" FRAMING (POLITICALWIRE) vs TEHRAN SILENCE: Political signal divergence between US-side narrative ("back on / rapid pace") and Iran-side data (no public confirmation). Markets choose the bearish read overnight — Brent fades $94.66 → $94.58 (−0.42%) rather than spiking on any "resumption" headline. Tape-level confirmation that the "rapid pace" framing is not yet operative.
• 🔴 OIL PRICES — BRENT FADES TO $94.58 (−0.42%); WTI HOLDS $91-92 BAND: TradingEconomics: Brent fell to 94.58 USD/Bbl on June 2 (−0.42% vs prior day). CNBC frames context: "Brent futures traded near $95 per barrel on Tuesday after jumping more than 4% at the start of the month, as ongoing peace talks between US and Iran showed little progress, keeping markets cautious about supply disruptions." Threshold check: Brent did not test $100; sub-$90 de-escalation threshold remains untouched. $90-100 mid-band upper half holds.
• 🟢 PARTIAL LEBANON CEASEFIRE — MARGINAL LOOSENER (NET REMAINS CONDITIONAL): The Israel-Hezbollah partial agreement is the first conditional loosener since C119. But the violations within hours and Israel's stated continuation of ground ops mean the loosener is fragile. Lock 7 (Geographic) remains MIXED; net resolution depends on Wednesday June 3 Washington talks and IDF Zaharani posture.
• 🔴 SPR — BLOOMBERG/BLAS: 17.8M COMBINED COMMERCIAL+SPR WEEKLY DRAW (LARGEST SINCE 1982): Gas-Price-Check / Bloomberg context (Javier Blas): the combined commercial-plus-SPR draw for week ending May 15 was ~17.8 million barrels — largest weekly fall since the data series begins in 1982. SPR specifically at 9.92M (week May 15) following 8.6M (prior week): two consecutive all-time weekly records. Total SPR ~374M bbl. C119 captured the SPR-only record; C120 confirms the broader stockpile draw is historic on both absolute and percentage basis.
• 🟡 WAR RISK PREMIUMS — TWO DATAPOINTS DIVERGE: Lloyd's List + LMA Mar 23 statement: war cover available at 7.5-10% hull / $10-14M per voyage band (C119 framing). Recent reports (Splash247 / IBT) suggest moderation to ~1-2.5% on no-claims bonuses for certain transits, with 5% on US/UK/IL nexus. Reconciliation: the 7.5-10% range is the published maximum; effective premiums for non-nexus tonnage with continuous-charterer no-claims bonus have eased toward 1-2.5%. Operative range C120: 1-10% depending on nexus, charterer history, voyage profile. Commercial fixture viability still constrained by combined $10-14M per voyage on benchmark routes.
• 🔵 POLYMARKET HOLDS ~25% YES (NORMALIZATION BY JUN 30): Consensus structural view that even a clean MOU path requires demining + insurance + 1,500-vessel clearance backlog. Halts on the talks track only harden the bearish base case.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 95 / Ceasefire Day 57 (Iran's Tasnim halt holds; Trump claims "rapid pace" without Iranian confirmation).

Key June 2 Asia/Europe open state (C120):

• Tasnim halt structurally holds into Tuesday open. Araghchi public posture: ceasefire is "unequivocally on all fronts; violation on one is violation of all."
• Trump's "rapid pace" claim and "deal in next week" framing is one-sided. Newsweek and political reporting note the explicit gap between Trump and Tehran narratives.
• Trump told ABC News he still hasn't approved the MOU because "I still have to get a few more points" — substantive concessions still contested.
• Lebanon partial ceasefire (announced late June 1) restricts Israeli strikes on Beirut + Dahiyeh and obliges Hezbollah cessation of strikes on Israel. June 2 early-hours: 2 projectiles from Lebanon intercepted by Israel. Netanyahu confirms IDF continued ground operations in south Lebanon — Zaharani River push, deepest 25-year incursion.
• Wednesday June 3 Washington talks between Lebanese officials and US/Israel to seek expanded ceasefire (i.e., Israeli halt of ground operations + Lebanese sovereignty assurances). This is the next 24-48h structural inflection.
• IRGC Quds Force commander explicit on dual-chokepoint maritime warning — first commander-level Quds framing.
• IRGC retaliatory strike on US-used base reported (Al Jazeera June 1) — Iran "retaliating for attack on Iranian communications tower"; Kuwait condemned Iranian attacks on its territory. No new fatalities reported in 12h window.
• UKMTO commercial-tanker incidents: 60h+ quiet window now (extending C119's 48h+). No new commercial incidents reported overnight Tuesday Asia/Europe open.
• IAEA HEU stockpile context: 440 kg @ 60% (pre-war est., June 2025 print); May 2026 figure not publicly numerized; Iran has not attempted to access stockpile per recent reporting.
• IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya blanket vetting order still in force.

• Iran civilians killed: 1,701+ of 3,636+ total (HRANA Apr 7 — STALE)
• Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs (STALE)
• US KIA/wounded: 13 / 381+ (CONFIRMED)
• UAE+Kuwait Iranian retaliation: 13 killed, 224 injured (WSJ late May)
• Foundation of Martyrs (Iran, May 5): 3,468 confirmed killed
• Kuwait (Jun 1 IRGC strike): condemned; casualty count not yet aggregated
• Lebanon Tyre + Dahiyeh (Jun 1): casualty count not yet aggregated; mass displacement persistent

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log

Running total: ~83+ commercial incidents, 41+ UKMTO reports since Feb 28 (unchanged C119 → C120).

4. Oil Prices

No formal threshold crossings into the $100/$108/$115 SNAPBACK band this cycle, but the 2-day floor at $94-95 Brent is a structural elevation from the pre-Tasnim baseline.

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status:

Status: DOWNGRADED further — Bloomberg historic-combined framing tightens the runway lens.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

7. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

• No new US seizures in the 12h window since C119. SKYWAVE (May 19) remains the latest confirmed action. CENTCOM cumulative: 84 redirected, 4 disabled, 3 seized. Operation Southern Spear: 10+ tankers seized since Dec 2025.
• Iran shadow fleet sizing (Windward/Treasury context): ~430 tankers in Iranian trade — 62% falsely flagged, 87% sanctioned. ~90M bbl shadow-fleet offshore storage (WSJ late May, carryover).
• OFAC April 2026 action: 40+ shipping firms / vessels sanctioned for Iranian petroleum/petrochemical transport.
• May 19 sanctions package (US Treasury 19 vessels + Iranian exchange house): Great Sail, Ocean Wave, Swift Falcon. No new Monday/Tuesday session designations reported.
• Iran "Hormuz Safe" state-backed insurance continues to fill the Western P&I vacuum for bilateral exception flows.
• $12B/$24B Iranian frozen assets: Restated as MOU precondition. Tasnim's $24B framing for MOU release-on-announcement is moot with the exchange halted.
• Trump MOU edits — Hormuz reopening sequencing: Confirmed via CBS/Axios — superseded by Iranian halt. The 30-day demining commitment + 60-day MOU window structure remains on ice; Trump's "few more points" framing implies substantive contests remain (likely on HEU mechanism + sequencing).

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy & Regulatory Actions

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle (C120 vs C119)

1. Iran's Tasnim MOU exchange halt HOLDS into Tuesday Asia/Europe open [STRUCTURAL CONFIRMATION]. No Iranian retraction. Araghchi public posture reinforces: "ceasefire on all fronts; violation on one is violation of all." The C119 pivot is not a one-day spike — it is a Day-2-confirmed structural break.

1. Trump narrative "rapid pace / deal in next week" — Iran NOT confirming [NARRATIVE GAP WIDENING]. Newsweek explicitly frames the divergence. The market reads the gap correctly: Brent fades modestly (−0.42%) rather than spiking on the "back on" framing. Tape-level confirmation that the "rapid pace" claim is one-sided.

1. Israel-Hezbollah partial ceasefire formalized, then partially violated within hours [CONDITIONAL LOOSENER — FRAGILE]. Israel pauses Beirut/Dahiyeh strikes; Hezbollah halts attacks on Israel; but Israel continues IDF ground ops in south Lebanon (Zaharani River push, deepest 25-year incursion), and 2 projectiles from Lebanon intercepted June 2 early hours. The partial loosener does not yet meet Iran's stated precondition (full Israeli withdrawal/halt of Lebanon ops).

1. IRGC Quds Force commander — explicit dual-chokepoint maritime warning [TIGHTENING via command-level reinforcement]. First Quds-level (not just Tasnim) framing: Israeli ops in Lebanon and Gaza "could lead Iran and its allies to take steps that could affect maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz." Escalation in messaging coherence without yet escalation in kinetic action.

1. Wednesday June 3 Washington Lebanon-expansion talks [UPCOMING INFLECTION]. Lebanese officials with US and Israel to seek expanded ceasefire (Israeli halt of ground ops + Lebanese sovereignty assurances). This is the 24-48h structural inflection that determines whether Iran's stated reset trigger is met.

1. Brent fades $94.66 → $94.58 (−0.42%); WTI holds $91-92 [PRICE STRUCTURE CONFIRMATION]. 2-day floor at $94-95 Brent now established post-Tasnim halt. Markets validating the halt's pricing rather than discounting on Trump's framing. Distance to $100 ~$5-6.

1. Bloomberg/Blas — combined commercial+SPR weekly draw 17.8M bbl (largest since 1982) [UPGRADED SPR framing]. New reference point. Combined stockpile draw historic on both absolute (record SPR) and percentage basis simultaneously. 374.2M bbl remaining; 37-46 weeks max-pace runway.

1. IRGC retaliatory strike on US-used base + Iran attacks on Kuwait territory (Jun 1) [NEW non-commercial actions]. Kuwait formally condemned. Confirms Iran's escalation choices remain political/posturing + targeted non-commercial military rather than commercial-tanker kinetic.

1. UKMTO commercial-tanker quiet window extends to 60h+ [CONTINUING — STRUCTURAL]. The 48h+ window from C117-C119 is now 60h+. Despite rhetorical/political escalation, no new commercial-tanker incidents. Iran's deterrent-by-procedure substitution continues to be the dominant operating mode.

1. War risk premium operative band widened: 1-10% [NUANCED reconciliation]. Market color reports moderation toward 1-2.5% for no-claims non-nexus tonnage; LMA published max 7.5-10% for high-risk profiles; effective $10-14M per voyage benchmark holds. The narrower C119 read of "7.5-10%" was the LMA max, not the operative effective range.

(b) Structural Locks Status

Lock 1 — Price [HOLDING TIGHT]. Brent 2-day floor at $94-95; WTI $91-92. No fresh tightening but no fresh loosening either. The $90-100 mid-band upper half is now structural Day 2 floor. Goldman adverse case (>$100 if recovery slips end-July) remains operative.

Lock 2 — Supply [TIGHTENING HOLDING]. Iran's "complete closure" agenda + Bab el-Mandeb activation + Quds Force command-level reinforcement. China/India bilateral exceptions still operational. Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan +90 kbpd marginal offset confirmed ramping.

Lock 3 — Insurance [HOLDING — Day 57]. P&I core cover technically available at 1-10% operative band; commercial fixture viability remains zero at scale. Strongest de-escalation indicator unfired for 8 weeks. Tasnim halt mathematically tightens the near-term path to normalized re-pricing.

Lock 4 — Labor [HOLDING]. ~22,500 seafarers stranded; Auroura coercion case active; IBF rights operational.

Lock 5 — Duration [TIGHTENING HOLDING]. Iran's Tasnim halt holds Day 2. The substantive bottleneck shifted from HEU mechanism to Lebanon — Lebanon expansion at Wednesday Washington talks is the next 24-48h tractable inflection point.

Lock 6 — Nuclear [HOLDING — moot]. IAEA "record HEU" framing carryover. Iran has not attempted to access stockpile per recent reporting. With MOU exchange halted, HEU mechanism dispute remains in cold storage.

Lock 7 — Geographic [MIXED, CONDITIONAL LOOSENER FRAGILE]. Lebanon partial ceasefire = conditional loosener; but 2 overnight projectiles + Israel continued ground ops = structural violations. Net through 24-48h depends on Wednesday Washington talks.

Lock 8 — Capability [HOLDING]. No US dedicated minesweepers; UUVs ongoing; 6-month full-clear estimate unchanged.

Lock 9 — Dual Chokepoint [TIGHTENING via Quds reinforcement]. Hormuz at floor + Suez ~60% below normal + Iran explicit Bab el-Mandeb agenda + Quds Force commander reinforces. First time two IRGC channels (Tasnim + Quds command) align on dual-chokepoint maritime posture.

Lock 10 — Leadership [HOLDING]. Iranian factional contradiction: Tasnim halt reflects hardliner consolidation; Foreign Ministry track frozen for now. Araghchi's "all fronts" reinforcement aligns with Tasnim.

Lock 11 — Energy Infra [HOLDING TIGHTLY]. Qatar LNG mid-June force majeure; Ras Laffan 17% capacity 3-5 yr loss; Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan ramping; UAE strike scope broader than visible. No new strikes on facilities this cycle.

C120 Tally: 0 unconditional loosening, 6 holding, 4 tightening-holding (Price, Supply, Duration, Dual Chokepoint), 1 mixed-fragile (Geographic — Lebanon partial ceasefire). C119 → C120 net: Lock 5 (Duration) confirms Day-2 structural break; Lock 9 (Dual Chokepoint) tightens further via Quds reinforcement; Lock 7 (Geographic) sees conditional loosener materialize then partially violate within hours.

(c) Critical Watch (Next Cycle)

• Wednesday June 3 Washington Lebanon-expansion talks — pivotal 24h. Expanded ceasefire = Iran's stated reset trigger satisfied; status quo = halt persists.
• Iranian first public response to Trump "rapid pace" framing — silence or rebuttal in next 24-48h is the highest-leverage signal.
• Israel ground ops in south Lebanon — Zaharani River advance is the active violation lever. Watch for further IDF advance vs. Wednesday-talks-driven pause.
• OPEC+ June 7 (5 days out) — emergency tone vs. modest symbolic hike. Saudi tone the key tell.
• Qatar LNG force majeure mid-June extension — structurally guaranteed (Q3 horizon).
• Philippines June 30 deadline — 28 days out. First SE Asian formal crisis breach if Strait stays closed.
• P&I re-entry watch — Lock 3 strongest de-escalation indicator; absent Day 57.
• UKMTO commercial-tanker quiet window — 60h+ extending: does it reach 72h+ or break on a Quds-warning-triggered action?
• Houthi posture — Iran has aligned with Bab el-Mandeb activation via Tasnim + Quds. Watch for first Houthi action timed to the alignment.
• SPR weekly print — does 8.6-9.92M record pace continue or revert toward 5-6M average?
• Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan ramp — 230 → 340 kbpd target confirmation.
• Lebanon partial ceasefire violation rate — 2 projectiles overnight is the structural read. Watch if violations cluster (collapse) or remain isolated (hold).

(d) Net Assessment

C120 opens June Day 2 with C119's late-session pivot structurally confirmed and ratcheted modestly tighter on the messaging coherence axis without yet breaking through into kinetic action. Iran's formal Tasnim halt of the MOU exchange holds into Tuesday Asia/Europe open with no retraction. Araghchi reinforces the posture publicly ("ceasefire on all fronts; violation on one is violation of all"). The IRGC Quds Force commander adds command-level voice to the dual-chokepoint maritime warning. Trump's parallel "rapid pace / deal in next week" framing is one-sided — Iran has not commented or confirmed. The market reads the gap correctly: Brent fades $0.08 to $94.58 (−0.42%) rather than spiking on the "back on" headline. The 2-day floor at $94-95 Brent / $91-92 WTI is now structural.

The Lebanon partial ceasefire announced late June 1 is the only conditional loosener in the dataset — and it is fragile. Two projectiles from Lebanon intercepted June 2 early hours; Israel continues IDF ground ops in south Lebanon (Zaharani River push, deepest 25-year incursion); Lebanese embassy explicitly notes the agreement "does not end the conflict." Wednesday June 3 Washington expansion talks are the next 24-48h structural inflection. If expansion succeeds and Israel halts ground ops, Iran's stated reset trigger is met — Lock 5 (Duration) has a tractable unfreeze path. If expansion fails or violations escalate, the Tasnim halt hardens through OPEC+ June 7 and into Philippines June 30 deadline.

The structural picture continues to deteriorate at a controlled pace except where it's accelerating. Bloomberg's framing of the combined commercial+SPR weekly draw at 17.8M (largest since 1982) tightens the SPR runway lens beyond C119's read. Qatar LNG mid-June force majeure structurally guaranteed. Iran has now aligned two IRGC channels (Tasnim + Quds command) on the dual-chokepoint posture. War risk premium operative band reconciles to 1-10% with $10-14M per voyage benchmark — commercial transit remains structurally non-viable. The 60h+ UKMTO commercial-tanker quiet window is the only loosening signal in the dataset; it reads as Iranian deterrent-by-procedure substitution preserving optionality for a Lebanon-expansion-triggered reset rather than structural de-escalation.

The off-ramp from the C1/C119 framework remains conditional on Lebanon expansion. A drafted MOU. A documented framework. A 57-day ceasefire that Iran has formally suspended its end of. A Trump "rapid pace / deal in next week" framing that Iran has not confirmed. A partial Lebanon ceasefire that is already partially violated. The four tightening-holding locks (Price, Supply, Duration, Dual Chokepoint) outweigh the one fragile conditional loosener (Lebanon-track Geographic) at C120. No lock loosened unconditionally in C119 → C120; the fragility of the only conditional loosener is the most leveraged datum of the war and resolves over the next 24-48 hours at the Wednesday Washington talks. Watch June 3 Washington + Iranian response to Lebanon framework + Asia/Europe Wednesday close as the next three signal tests; watch June 7 (OPEC+) and June 30 (Philippines) as the next two structural inflection dates.

13. Sources

CBS News (Trump says Iran talks continuing at "rapid pace" after regime threatens "other fronts" in war); CNN (June 1 2026 — Trump insists talks continue after Iran suspended negotiations); CNBC (oil prices, Iran context); NPR (Iran halts talks with US over Israeli actions in Lebanon, Gaza); Al Jazeera (Iran warns Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Gaza threaten US ceasefire talks; IRGC retaliatory strike; Houthi Bab el-Mandeb threat; Iraq oil exports; QatarEnergy force majeure; OPEC symbolic output rise); Trading Economics (Brent fell to $94.58 on June 2; WTI surged +7% above $94 on Tasnim headline; crude oil futures); Yahoo Finance (Iran halting indirect talks with US over Israel's Lebanon incursion); Times of Israel (Iran freezing exchange of messages with US over Israeli attacks in Lebanon — Tasnim; liveblog June 01 2026; June 1 IRGC threatens shipping in Hormuz and Bab El Mandab); Newsweek (Trump says Iran talks rapid pace, Tehran warns they're suspended); Political Wire (Trump says Iran talks back on); ABC News (Trump deal on truce and Hormuz expected over the next week); PBS News (Trump announces Israel and Lebanon agreed to 3-week ceasefire extension); Axios (Lebanese official told US Hezbollah ready for full ceasefire — Nabih Berri; US push for Lebanon ceasefire stalls as Israel eyes Beirut strikes); The Washington Post (Trump says Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to dial back fighting; Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing could take 6 months); CBS News (Trump edited possible US-Iran agreement); The Hill (Iran halts ceasefire talks with US, says it will keep Strait of Hormuz closed); House of Commons Library (Reopening Strait of Hormuz; US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks in 2026); Middle East Eye (Iran ends peace talks with US and says it will close Bab el-Mandeb Strait); Time (Bab el-Mandeb strait Iran Houthis threat); Atlantic Council (Will the Houthis join the Iran war?; Iraq oil export vulnerability); CrisisGroup (Bab al-Mandab Yemen flashpoint; Strait of Hormuz); Rappler (Lebanon announces partial ceasefire between Israel, Hezbollah but attacks continue); The Express Tribune (Lebanon announces partial ceasefire); Wikipedia (2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis; 2026 Iran war ceasefire; 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations; 2026 Iran war fuel crisis; 2026 Philippine energy crisis; 2026 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire; Red Sea crisis; 2026 Lebanon war; Iranian shadow fleet; Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline; Twelve-Day War ceasefire; 2026 Iran war); CNN (America's pile of emergency oil is shrinking fast); EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (May 13 + May 20 SPR drawdown prints); OilPrice (StanChart Says Record SPR Withdrawals; Goldman $100 Brent; Iraq To Restore Kirkuk-Turkey Pipeline); Gas-Price-Check (2026 SPR Drawdown Crisis — Bloomberg/Blas 17.8M combined draw, two all-time weekly SPR records); 24/7 Wall St (Trump Promised to Refill SPR Instead Largest Weekly Drain in History); Newsweek (How Will Record Drop in SPR Impact Gas Prices); DOE Energy.gov (172M release; emergency exchange program; SPR Quick Facts); Plainview Energy (SPR Deep Dive); Yahoo Finance / Fortune (Goldman if Hormuz shut another month); TheStreet (Goldman oil target reset); Discovery Alert (Goldman forecasts supply crisis; Philippines fuel emergency); JPMorgan Global Research (Oil price forecast 2026 — Brent $60 baseline); Lloyd's List (Gulf war risk premiums double-digit millions per trip; VLCC ~$100K); LMA Lloyd's (Safety concerns not insurance availability — Mar 23); Splash247 (Hormuz maritime risk premium and fear); IBT Australia (Hormuz War Risk Insurance Costs Soar); EAN Networks (London marine insurers reaffirm war risk cover); WEF (war risk insurance — governments as insurer of last resort); Irregular Warfare (Insurance Weapon); Property Casualty 360 (maritime war risk insurance 2026); Hormuz Strait Monitor; S&P Global (Qatar 3-5 yr LNG repair; VLCC rates; Gulf of Oman/East trial route); Bloomberg (Qatar force majeure mid-June extension); Gasworld (QatarEnergy extension); Energy News Beat (Qatar later FM bet); Rigzone (Qatar Extends Force Majeure); JPMorgan (Qatar GDP −9% 2026); QatarEnergy (Media Center release); GuruFocus (Qatar Energy Extends Force Majeure); Investing.com (QatarEnergy extends LNG force majeure through mid-June); The National (Ras Laffan not fully online before end-August; Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan revival; Israel's military set to resume strikes on Beirut); Iraqi News (Iraq increases oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan to 340,000 bpd); Shafaq News (Iraq boosts Basrah crude exports via Ceyhan pipeline); Kurdistan24 (Basra Oil Set for Export via Kurdistan Region Pipeline); IndexBox (Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan 140,000 bpd plan); TRT World (Iraq resumes oil exports through Türkiye); Alhurra (Iraq may halt southern oil exports); EIA Iraq country brief; USNI News (transits at lowest level); Worldoil (Hormuz traffic rises as US aids transits); Carraglobe (1,500+ vessels stranded); Polymarket (Hormuz traffic normalization Jun 30 ~25% YES; ~75% NO); IMF PortWatch (4 transits May 24); NBC News (data graphics transit tracker); Hormuz Monitor / Straits.live (status closed Jun 2026); OPEC.org (May 3 +188K decision; calendar June 7 ministerial); EBC Financial / Ultima Markets (OPEC schedule); The Standard.hk (OPEC+ expected to up July output target); Yahoo Finance (OPEC+ raises June output); Argus (VLCC rates surge; OPEC+ 8 reconfirm output steady); OilPrice (supertanker market war premium); Breakwave Advisors (bi-weekly tanker report May 19); Strauss Center (insurance market); Caixin Global (war risk insurance returns at a price); Maritime Executive (tanker traffic to zero on P&I pullback); WSJ (UAE covert campaign; 90M bbl shadow fleet); PCO / PIA (PBBM signs RA 12316); Lowy Institute (Philippines fuel emergency); Philstar (Learning from crisis); Aurea Dala Law (RA 12316 Explained); Manila Times (Aquino hits delay in fuel tax cuts); Philippine News Agency (Marcos gets emergency powers); WorldEnergyLockdown (38-country restriction tracker); Statista (fuel crisis policy responses); Crisis24 (APAC fuel shortages); CSMonitor (Asia belt-tightening); Britannica (12-Day War; 2026 Iran war); Foreign Policy (US operation to get Iran's HEU); Carnegie Endowment (Iran nuclear question still on the table); Arms Control Center (Iran's Stockpile of HEU); Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Iran likely transferred HEU to Isfahan before June strikes); IAEA Board of Governors GOV/2026/8 (Feb 27 2026); Congress.gov (Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz; Iran and Nuclear Weapons Production; Israel-Iran Conflict CRS); FDD (Trump points to Iran's resumption at new deeper site); Carraglobe (Hormuz Closure 2026 supply chain); SeaVantage (Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026 timeline); Mappr (Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026 — Sea Mines, IRGC); Atlantic Council (Hormuz); Press TV (IRGC Aerospace Force warns enemies); CNN (Iran promises utter ruin); HotAir (IRGC warns utter ruin); Fox News (Iran threatens retaliation over US blockade); CNN (May 25-26 US strikes on Iranian missile launch sites); Vision of Humanity (Global Terrorism Index 2026 — Iran War); Just Security (Collection: Iran, Israel, US at War); CSIS (Hormuz in 8 charts); IISS (US-Israel campaign in Iran); JPost (Israel will not attack Hezbollah Trump declares; Houthis hold Gulf states from joining US attacks with Bab el-Mandeb trump card); State Department (Sanctions to Combat Illicit Traders of Iranian Oil); US Treasury (multiple shadow fleet release packages); GCaptain (US Treasury Sanctions 12 Tankers; Qatar Extends Force Majeure); Middle East Institute (How Iran, China, Russia Use Shadow Fleet); Windward (OFAC Targets Iran's Shadow Fleet); Bloomberg (Qatar LNG Deliveries Disrupted Through Mid-June); Habtoor Research Centre (What If Houthis Close Bab el-Mandeb); ORF Middle East (Double Chokepoint: Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb); Politics Today (Bab el-Mandeb in the Wake of Hormuz Crisis); Cipher Brief (Houthis Positioned to Close Bab el-Mandeb); Global Security Review (Red Sea uncertainty 2026 Houthi forecast); IranWarLive (Strait of Hormuz live status); UKMTO (Recent incidents; 2026 advisories; JMIC Advisory Notes 31 + 34); Atlantic Council / Carnegie / FDD (Iran nuclear question; Iran's resumption at deeper site); Tribune India (Trump says talks with Iran continuing at "rapid pace"; Trump says deal with Iran on truce, Hormuz expected over the next week); OAN (Trumps says Iran talks continuing); Siasat Daily (Negotiations with Iran continue at fast pace); NBC News (Trump says talks between US and Iran continue at rapid pace).

Scout — C120 / C1 of 2026-06-02. Desktop substrate Day-2 confirmation cycle. Grok bridge: NO. Iran Tasnim halt HOLDS Day 2; Araghchi reinforces "all fronts"; Trump claims "rapid pace / deal in next week" — Iran NOT confirmed; partial Lebanon ceasefire formalized then partially violated (2 projectiles intercepted Jun 2; IDF Zaharani push continues); IRGC Quds Force commander explicit dual-chokepoint maritime warning. Brent fades $94.58 (−0.42%); WTI $91-92 band — 2-day floor at $94-95 Brent. Bloomberg/Blas: combined commercial+SPR weekly draw 17.8M = largest since 1982. Structural locks 0 unconditional loosening / 6 holding / 4 tightening-holding (Price, Supply, Duration, Dual Chokepoint) / 1 mixed-fragile (Geographic — Lebanon partial ceasefire). Watch Wed Jun 3 Washington Lebanon-expansion talks, Iranian response to Trump framing, OPEC+ Jun 7, P&I re-entry — still absent Day 57.