Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-06-01 · Cycle 2 (C118)

War Day: 94 | Ceasefire Day: 56 | Cycle: C118 (C2 of 2026-06-01)
Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes HORMUZ X-PULSE stalest since April 29 (Day 33). Reduced intraday web sweep (focused on C117 thesis test + 12h delta).
Baseline: C117 / 2026-06-01-C1 (Desktop substrate Monday-open cycle, 13-topic full sweep).

PROVENANCE NOTE (Scout desktop, 2026-06-01 evening UTC): C2 is an intraday follow-on to C117. C117 captured the Monday gap-up open (~$93.37 Brent / WTI $89-91 range tracking) on the cumulative weekend hawkish signal flow. This cycle tests whether the gap-up held, extended, or was faded through the trading session, and re-validates the structural locks against any movement in the negotiation, transit, or insurance pictures during European/US hours. Headline read: gap-up HELD on a modest +2.67% close (WTI $89.69 close, Brent equivalent ~$93-94). C117 thesis VALIDATED. No new MOU signature. Iran responded to Trump's edits with counter-proposals — multi-day back-and-forth confirmed. No new commercial-tanker UKMTO incidents. Structural picture unchanged at the floor.

⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE

• 🟡 GAP-UP HELD INTO THE CLOSE, NOT EXTENDED — WTI $89.69 CLOSE (+2.67%), BRENT EQUIV ~$93-94: The C117 reversal thesis validated on a partial-recovery basis. Markets confirmed the weekend signal flow re-priced into Monday's tape, but did not push toward the $95+ upside band. Spot–structure decoupling remains wide (transits ~4/day per PortWatch May 24, P&I withdrawn Day 56, GAP ~14-15 mb/d). May's −17% decline partially given back; structural reality not yet fully re-priced.
• 🔴 MOU IMPASSE DEEPENS — IRAN SENT COUNTER-PROPOSALS TO TRUMP'S EDITED DRAFT: Per CNBC/Reuters intraday, US and Iran "exchanged proposals seeking revisions to a draft deal that would prolong the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Donald Trump reaffirming his demand that Iran halt its nuclear program." Multi-day back-and-forth now confirmed as the operative state. Trump's HEU demand softened slightly in actual text vs C117's framing: Trump publicly stated HEU may be either "turned over to the US to be destroyed OR destroyed in place at another location with IAEA / Atomic Energy Commission oversight" — destruction-in-place was already on the table from the May 25 Pravda USA quote, so the C117 "DESTROYED by US" framing was harder than the actual text supports. Substantive impasse holds; rhetorical hardening overstated.
• 🔴 SPR DRAW RATE ACCELERATED — 9.1M BBL LAST WEEK / ~50M TOTAL SINCE FEB 28: CNN/CNBC late-May reporting confirms SPR drawdown of ~50M bbl since war start (~12% decline to ~365M bbl) — faster than C117's "172M committed / ~17.5M drawn" framing implied. The most recent weekly print (9.1M bbl) is roughly 1.5–2× the average weekly rate. Runway compressing.
• 🔴 QATAR LNG REPAIR HORIZON EXTENDED — "NOT FULLY ONLINE BEFORE END-AUGUST": The National (per S&P Global) confirms Ras Laffan unlikely to be fully operational before end-August 2026 — pushing the structural recovery window from C117's "mid-June extension base case" into Q3. North site (41 mtpa) could resume within a month of restart; South site (Trains 4 and 6 directly hit) earliest end-of-summer. 12.8 Mtpa offline 3-5 years remains.
• 🟢 NO NEW UKMTO COMMERCIAL INCIDENTS IN THE 12H WINDOW: Quiet tanker-attack continuation extending C117's 24h quiet window. ~83+ cumulative incidents unchanged. Iran's blanket vetting regime continuing as deterrent-by-procedure.
• 🟡 POLYMARKET: 75%+ NO ON HORMUZ TRAFFIC NORMALIZATION BY JUNE 30: Carried from C117; held through Monday session. Market consensus aligning with the structural read that even a clean deal path requires weeks for demining, insurance normalization, and clearance of ~1,500 stranded vessels — full recovery into September.

1. Conflict Status

War Day 94 / Ceasefire Day 56.

Key June 1 evening state (C118):

• No Trump signature on MOU through the trading day. The Iranian counter-proposals exchanged with the US through Monday confirm the C117 read that the framework is in indefinite limbo, but specifically narrow the bottleneck to HEU mechanism + timing + Strait-reopening sequencing. The "deal could be announced Sunday" Axios framing has slipped; current public US framing is that the back-and-forth "could last several days."
• Iran's foreign ministry and state media held the formal-rejection posture from C117 through the trading day. No new Khamenei or Mojtaba Khamenei statement to recalibrate.
• IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya blanket vetting order remains in force; no procedural softening reported through European/US hours.
• IAEA HEU stockpile context (carrying from baseline): 440 kg @ 60% pre-war estimate, mainly believed in underground tunnels at Isfahan; IAEA has not been able to access bombed sites or account for nuclear material since Feb 28 strikes. The May 31 "record level" framing from C117 needs caveating: the headline is "record" relative to the May 2025 baseline of 408.6 kg @ 60%, but specific May 2026 figure is not yet publicly available — extrapolation pending.
• No new Lebanon/Israel escalation reported in the 12h window. Lebanon strikes continuing on the ceasefire-violation track.
• WSJ UAE covert campaign disclosure continuing to ripple regionally; no new Iranian retaliation move against the disclosure through Monday.
• No new UKMTO commercial incidents overnight (C117) or through Monday session (C118).

• Iran civilians killed: 1,701+ of 3,636+ total (HRANA, Apr 7 — STALE)
• Iran displaced: ~3.2M IDPs (CNN/IRC consensus — STALE)
• US KIA/wounded: 13 / 381+ (CONFIRMED through C117)
• UAE+Kuwait Iranian retaliation: 13 killed (2 mil, 1 civ-contractor, 10 civ), 224 injured (WSJ, late May)
• Foundation of Martyrs (Iran, May 5): 3,468 confirmed killed

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

3. Tanker Attack Log

Running total: ~83+ commercial incidents, 41+ UKMTO reports since Feb 28 (unchanged C117 → C118).

The 36+ hour quiet window extending from C117 → C118 is itself a structural signal — Iran's blanket vetting may be functioning as full deterrent substitution for kinetic interdiction. Watch whether this becomes the new operating norm or breaks on a Tuesday escalation.

4. Oil Prices

No threshold crossings this cycle. Brent in the $90-100 middle band; WTI in the high-$80s. Sub-$90 de-escalation threshold not breached. $100/$108/$115 SNAPBACK thresholds untouched.

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

IEA coordinated release status:

The announcement-vs-physical-delivery gap continues to widen. With Trump's "no hurry" persisting and Iran sending counter-proposals (not signing), the SPR is now the active price-stabilization tool in the absence of either a deal or an OPEC+ output surge. June 7 OPEC+ commentary becomes critical for whether Saudi will absorb the demand into the impasse window.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

7. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

• No new US seizures in the 12h window since C117. SKYWAVE (May 19) remains the latest confirmed action. CENTCOM cumulative: 84 redirected, 4 disabled, 3 seized (carried from C117; pending update).
• Iran shadow fleet ~90M bbl offshore storage (WSJ, late May) — outside the American blockade. Pre-positioning by Tehran + Beijing-aligned buyers.
• May 19 sanctions package (US Treasury 19 vessels + Iranian exchange house + front companies): Named tankers Great Sail, Ocean Wave, Swift Falcon. No new Monday-session designations reported.
• Iran "Hormuz Safe" state-backed insurance: Operational for China/India bilateral + shadow-fleet flows. Continuing as Tehran's structural workaround to absent P&I.
• $12B Qatar-held frozen Iranian assets: Restated as "main" Iranian precondition. No US movement in 12h window.
• Trump MOU edits — Hormuz reopening sequencing: Confirmed via CBS/Axios — Trump's request narrows on HEU mechanism + timing + Strait-reopening sequencing. Iranian counter-proposals (per Monday CNBC) targeting these same clauses.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy & Regulatory Actions

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment

(a) What Changed This Cycle (C118 vs C117)

1. WTI close $89.69 (+2.67%); Brent equivalent ~$93-94 [NEW close, HIGH significance]. C117's morning gap-up thesis VALIDATED on the close. Not extended toward $95-100, not faded to $90-91 floor. Market priced the weekend hawkish signal flow as a +$2.30 WTI move, no more.

1. Iran sent counter-proposals to Trump's edited draft [NEW]. CNBC/Reuters intraday confirmation that US and Iran "exchanged proposals seeking revisions to a draft deal." Confirms the impasse is substantive (HEU mechanism + timing + Strait-reopening sequencing) rather than tactical. Multi-day back-and-forth now the operating mode.

1. Trump HEU position nuance [NUANCE]. Trump's public statement that HEU may be either "turned over to the US" OR "destroyed in place at another location with IAEA / Atomic Energy Commission oversight" softens the C117 "DESTROYED by US" framing. The substantive demand (US verification + destruction) remains, but the modality is flexible. This was already on record from May 25 (Pravda USA), and C117 framing was harder than the actual text supports.

1. SPR drawdown accelerated to 9.1M bbl/week last week [NEW — DOWNGRADED runway]. CNN/CNBC late-May reporting confirms ~50M bbl total drawn since Feb 28 (~12% of pre-war reserve, dropping to ~365M bbl). Last-week print is ~1.5-2× the average weekly rate. Notional runway at acceleration rate: ~40 weeks; at average rate: ~60-70 weeks. The acceleration is the operative read.

1. Qatar LNG repair horizon extended into Q3 [NEW — DOWNGRADED]. The National (per S&P Global) confirms Ras Laffan not fully online before end-August. North site could resume within a month of restart; South site (Trains 4 and 6 direct hits) earliest end-of-summer. Mid-June force majeure expiry now structurally guaranteed to extend.

1. UKMTO 36h+ quiet window [CONTINUING — STRUCTURAL]. Combined C117 24h + C118 12h with no new commercial incidents. Iran's blanket vetting may be substituting for kinetic interdiction as the primary deterrent mode. Watch whether this extends into a Tuesday quiet or breaks.

1. P&I scope nuance [NUANCE — Lloyd's List clarification]. The "all 12 IG clubs withdrew" framing was technically about charterers' liability extensions, not core liability cover. But market behavior is unchanged — no commercial Hormuz transit insurance is available, and Western owners are explicitly limiting Gulf exposure. The structural de-escalation signal (P&I re-entry / first commercial fixture with full normal cover) remains pending.

(b) Structural Locks Status

Lock 1 — Price [TIGHTENING — confirmed]. Gap-up held into close on +2.67% WTI / Brent ~$93-94. Spot–structure decoupling closing the wrong way at a measured pace, not accelerating, not reversing. Sub-$90 de-escalation threshold not breached; $95-100 analyst upside band not yet tested.

Lock 2 — Supply [HOLDING — tightening bias]. Iran consolidating transit control via IRGC vetting; transits at floor (~4/day); Iraq output 1.4 mb/d vs 4.3 pre-war. No physical loosening through the trading day.

Lock 3 — Insurance [HOLDING — Day 56]. P&I effectively withdrawn (Lloyd's List nuance noted). Iran's "Hormuz Safe" scheme operational as state-backed alternative. The strongest single de-escalation indicator has not fired.

Lock 4 — Labor [HOLDING]. ~22,500 seafarers stranded; Auroura coercion case still active; IBF rights operational but enforcement uneven.

Lock 5 — Duration [DOWNGRADED — substantive impasse confirmed]. Trump's edits + Iran's counter-proposals = multi-day back-and-forth on HEU/sequencing/sanctions. Signature window narrows on each day of unresolved exchange. C117's read of "structurally stuck pending Trump tone-shift OR Iranian concession on HEU" reads at C118 as "deal stuck on bilateral counter-proposal exchange; HEU mechanism is the operative bottleneck."

Lock 6 — Nuclear [TIGHTENING — caveat noted]. IAEA's "record HEU" framing carried from C117; specific May 2026 number not yet publicly stated. Trump's destruction-in-place flexibility narrows the HEU dispute to timing + verification + handover modality rather than pure US-led destruction. Lock 6 still driving Lock 5.

Lock 7 — Geographic [TIGHTENING — confirmed]. UAE covert campaign since first days of war; Saudi April warning revealed; Iranian retaliation cumulative 13 killed across UAE/Kuwait. Belligerency broader than visible surface implied.

Lock 8 — Capability [HOLDING]. No US dedicated minesweepers; UUV operations ongoing; UK reinforcements en route; 6-month full-clear estimate unchanged. Project Freedom paused.

Lock 9 — Dual Chokepoint [HOLDING]. Suez ~60% below normal; Houthi rerouting baseline through 2027. No new chokepoint disruption this cycle.

Lock 10 — Leadership [HOLDING]. Iranian factional contradiction continuing: negotiating track (Araghchi) overlaid by state media + IRGC + Speaker Ghalibaf hardening. Mojtaba Khamenei consolidation steady.

Lock 11 — Energy Infra [TIGHTENING — DOWNGRADED]. Qatar LNG repair horizon extended to end-August (Ras Laffan); Ras Laffan 17% capacity 3-5 yr structural loss; Iraq production fragile; South Pars repair multi-year; UAE strike scope broader than visible.

C118 Tally: 0 loosening, 5 holding, 6 tightening (Price, Supply-bias, Duration, Nuclear, Geographic, Energy Infra). Slight rebalance vs C117's 4/7 split — Lock 3 (Insurance) reads as "holding" with the Lloyd's List nuance noted, rather than "loosening" or "tightening." Net direction continues C117/C2's reversal toward systemic tightening, at a slightly more measured pace.

(c) Critical Watch (Next Cycle)

• Asia / Europe Tuesday open — does the WTI $89.69 close hold, fade to $87-88, or extend toward $92+? First overnight signal on whether the gap-up has staying power or was a one-day repricing.
• Trump statement / Iran response Tuesday-Wednesday — does the next round of the counter-proposal exchange materialize as edits, a new draft, or a Trump walkback? First negotiating-vs-walking signal of the week.
• OPEC+ pre-meeting commentary — Saudi tone the key tell. Emergency framing vs. continued symbolic increases. Watch for May print of compliance data.
• Qatar LNG force majeure mid-June — extension base case now structurally guaranteed (end-August horizon). Watch for any partial-restart North-site signal.
• Philippines June 30 deadline — 29 days out. First SE Asian formal crisis breach if Strait stays closed.
• P&I re-entry watch — Lock 3 strongest de-escalation indicator; still absent Day 56. First commercial fixture with full normal cover = same signal.
• Strait transit count — any sustained move above ~6/day = first physical loosening signal in weeks.
• UKMTO incident log — 36h+ quiet window: does it extend to 72h+ or break on a Tuesday escalation?
• SPR weekly print — does the 9.1M/week pace continue or revert to ~5-6M average?

(d) Net Assessment

C118 closes June Day 1 with C117's morning gap-up thesis validated on the close, no new MOU signature, Iranian counter-proposals exchanged, and the structural picture unchanged at the floor. The day's market move — WTI +2.67% to $89.69, Brent equivalent ~$93-94 — is a measured re-pricing of the weekend hawkish signal flow, not a thesis-shifting move. Markets priced delay but not deadlock; the $90-100 middle band held all day.

The substantive negotiation read clarifies that the deal is stuck on HEU mechanism + timing + Strait-reopening sequencing, not on rhetorical posturing. Trump's destruction-in-place flexibility (US-led OR in-place IAEA-witnessed) softens the C117 "DESTROYED by US" framing, but doesn't soften the underlying demand for verifiable destruction within the 60-day MOU window. Iran's counter-proposal on the same clauses confirms the impasse is bilateral and technical, not unilateral and political. This is the kind of dispute that resolves on multi-day timescales when it resolves, not multi-hour ones.

The structural picture continues to deteriorate at a controlled pace. SPR drawdown accelerated to 9.1M bbl/week last week (~12% cumulative depletion to ~365M); Qatar LNG repair horizon extended to end-August (Ras Laffan), making the mid-June force majeure extension structurally guaranteed; Iraq output stuck at 1.4 mb/d vs 4.3 pre-war; transits at the ~4/day floor; P&I effectively absent Day 56 with the Lloyd's List nuance noted. The 36+ hour UKMTO quiet window is the only loosening signal in the dataset — and it reads as Iranian deterrent-by-procedure substitution rather than structural de-escalation.

The off-ramp from the C1/C117 framework still exists on paper. A drafted MOU. A documented framework. A 56-day ceasefire that has held under sustained violation. But the six locks tightening (Price, Supply-bias, Duration, Nuclear, Geographic, Energy Infra) continue to outweigh the five locks holding. No lock loosened in the C117 → C118 transition. The single highest-leverage event remains a Trump signature OR a Trump tone-shift on HEU verification timing. Absent either, the market will continue to close the spot–structure gap upward on each new datapoint, the SE Asian fuel-crisis cascade will accelerate as the Philippines June 30 deadline approaches, and the IRGC blanket vetting order will harden into the default transit regime — making any eventual de-escalation a much longer process than the 30-day mine-clearance term in the drafted MOU. Watch June 7 (OPEC+) and June 30 (Philippines) as the next two structural test dates; watch WTI $89.69 close, the next counter-proposal exchange, and the IAEA-Iran HEU number as the next three signal tests.

13. Sources

CNBC (Brent monthly loss; oil drops 20% from 2026 peak on ceasefire optimism; oil prices today June 1 — WTI climbing toward $90); Reuters (US-Iran exchange proposals on draft deal); Trading Economics (WTI $89.69 close Jun 1 +2.67%; Brent crude historical); Investing.com (Brent oil historical / Jun 1 open ~$93.37); Axios (Trump edits MOU; deal could be announced Sunday; back-and-forth several days; Witkoff/Araghchi); CBS News (Trump edited possible US-Iran agreement, HEU and Hormuz); The Hill (US-Iran ceasefire-extension deal 5 takeaways; tentative deal); Washington Post (US-Iran near deal extend ceasefire reopen Hormuz); The Week (US-Iran on brink of deal); Wikipedia (2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis; 2026 Iran war ceasefire; 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations); CNN (America's pile of emergency oil is shrinking fast — ~50M drawn / ~365M remaining); EIA (DOE 17.5M drawn since March prior baseline); DOE Energy.gov (172M release; emergency exchange program); Plainview Energy (SPR Deep Dive Part I 2026 exchange); CME Group (Brent quotes); Yahoo Finance (BZ=F historical); CSIS (Hormuz in 8 charts); Strauss Center (insurance market); Lloyd's List (Gulf war risk premiums double-digit millions; "No, P&I clubs have not cancelled war risk cover" — charterers' liability extensions nuance; VLCC ~$100K rate); World Economic Forum (war risk insurance — governments as insurer of last resort); Caixin Global (war risk insurance returns to Strait of Hormuz at a price); Maritime Executive (tanker traffic to zero on P&I pullback); Irregular Warfare (Insurance Weapon); LMA Lloyd's (safety concerns driving reduced traffic); Property Casualty 360 (maritime war risk insurance 2026 Iran crisis); S&P Global (Qatar 3-5 year LNG repair; VLCC rates downward pressure; Gulf of Oman/East trial route); The National (Ras Laffan not fully online before end-August); Bloomberg (Qatar force majeure mid-June extension); Gasworld (QatarEnergy extension); Energy News Beat (Qatar later FM bet); Middle East Council (Qatar strategic balancing); JPMorgan (Qatar GDP −9% 2026); USNI News (transits at lowest level); Worldoil (Hormuz traffic rises as U.S. aids transits — China/India overlay surge); Carraglobe (1,500+ vessels stranded; supply chain implications); Polymarket (Hormuz traffic normalization Jun 30 probability ~25% YES); IMF PortWatch (4 transits May 24); NBC News (data graphics transit tracker); Hormuz Strait Monitor / Straits.live (status closed Jun 2026); Hormuz Monitor (explainer); CrisisGroup (Strait of Hormuz flashpoint); UKMTO (recent incidents; 2026 advisories); The Hill (US demining); Al Jazeera (UKMTO bulk carrier May 3; QatarEnergy force majeure; Saudi pipeline restored; Bushehr; South Pars; reserves; OPEC+ symbolic increase; US-Iran 60-day proposal); House of Saud / Global Security (Oman mine alert; IRGC vetting; PressTV warning); Iran International / The Hill / Aviationist (US strikes mine-laying boats); Insurance Journal (seafarer refusal); Democracy Now (Hormuz seafarers; ex-nuclear negotiator); WSJ (UAE covert campaign; 90M bbl shadow fleet); Iraqi News (Iraq to resume full oil exports — all fields ready); Atlantic Council (Iraq export vulnerability); Alhurra (Iraq may halt southern oil exports); EIA Iraq country brief; Foreign Policy (US operation to get Iran's HEU); Carnegie Endowment (Iran nuclear question still on the table); Times of Israel (Trump HEU statement to US or destroyed under IAEA); Scientific American (Trump wants Iran's "nuclear dust"); Arms Control Association (Trump's chaotic Iran policy; ill-prepared negotiators); FDD (Trump points to Iran's resumption at new deeper site); Pravda USA (Trump prefers destroy enriched uranium in place with IAEA witness); OPEC.org (May 3 +188K decision; calendar June 7 ministerial); EBC Financial (next OPEC meeting 2026 schedule); Ultima Markets (OPEC schedule); Argus (VLCC rates surge to over 20pc of FOB value); OilPrice.com (supertanker market war premium back in play); GoSships (insurance market closed Hormuz before Iran did); Breakwave Advisors (bi-weekly tanker report May 19); Britannica (Iran nuclear deal negotiations 2025-26 overview); Statista (fuel crisis policy responses); Crisis24 (APAC fuel shortages); WorldEnergyLockdown (38-country restriction tracker); CSMonitor (Asia belt-tightening); Rigzone / Gasworld (Qatar force majeure extension); Strauss Center / WEF (war risk insurance returns).

Scout — C118 / C2 of 2026-06-01. Desktop substrate intraday close-of-business cycle. Grok bridge: NO. C117 gap-up thesis validated on +2.67% WTI close ($89.69); Iranian counter-proposals exchanged; structural locks 0 loosening / 5 holding / 6 tightening. Watch Asia/Europe Tuesday open, OPEC+ Jun 7, Philippines Jun 30 deadline, P&I re-entry — still absent Day 56.