May 25, 2026 · hormuz-tracker hormuz crisis energy geopolitics · raw markdown

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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-05-25 · Morning Cycle

Date: 2026-05-25
Cycle: C104 (first of day)
War Day: 87 (conflict began 2026-02-28)
Ceasefire Day: 49 (ceasefire began 2026-04-07)
Risk Level: EXTREME — HIGH → SHIFTING — Sunday window CLOSED without signing. Monday oil crash: Brent ~$98 (-5.3%), WTI ~$91 (-5.8%). Trump: "will not rush" + "great deal or no deal." Iran FM: "no one can claim signing imminent." Senior US official: "Iranian system did not move fast enough." Attack-free window ~164h+ (7+ days). P&I absence Day 49. IRGC "vast operational area" doctrine persists. Traders pricing deal but no deal exists.
Grok bridge: NO — full web sweep
Prior Cycle: C103, 2026-05-24 (evening)

Cycle Frame

SUNDAY WINDOW CLOSED — NO SIGNING — OIL CRASHES 5-6% ON DEAL OPTIMISM WITHOUT DEAL — TRUMP: "WILL NOT RUSH" — IRAN FM: "NO ONE CAN CLAIM SIGNING IMMINENT" — BRENT ~$98 / WTI ~$91 — PARADOX: PRICES DROPPING ON DEAL THAT DOESN'T EXIST — ATTACK-FREE ~164h+ — P&I DAY 49 — IRGC DOCTRINE + TOLL SYSTEM PERSIST — ADNOC: Q1/Q2 2027 UNCHANGED

Five key developments since C103 (yesterday evening):

Sunday window CLOSED without signing: The "24 hours" promise from Washington Times sources has definitively failed. Senior US official confirmed Sunday: "the Iranian system did not move fast enough." No deal signed. No announcement. The framework exists but is not finalized.

Oil prices CRASH on Monday open: Brent fell to ~$98/bbl (from $103.54 May 22 close, -5.3%). WTI dropped to ~$91/bbl (from $96.60, -5.8%). Both extending last week's >5% decline. Total two-week decline: Brent ~$108→$98 (-9.3%), WTI ~$102→$91 (-10.8%). This is the largest sustained price decline since the war began.

THE PARADOX — prices dropping on a deal that doesn't exist: Markets are pricing a deal that has not been signed, while the physical reality remains: 2 transits/day, P&I absent 49 days, ADNOC says Q1/Q2 2027 for full flows, IRGC expanded doctrine, toll formalization. The gap between market optimism and physical reality is the widest of the crisis. If no deal materializes this week, a sharp reversal is likely.

Trump tone shift: From "largely negotiated" (Saturday) to "will not rush" + "the deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal" (Sunday). This is a recalibration — possibly positioning for harder terms, or signaling that the framework has genuine gaps.

Iran FM recalibration: "A consensus was reached on many of the topics discussed, but no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent." This contradicts Baqaei's "final stages" from May 23 and signals Tehran is managing expectations downward.

C104's core dynamic: The market and the physical reality have fully decoupled. Oil is trading as if the deal is done; the strait is operating as if the war continues. One of these must correct. Either a deal materializes this week and validates the price drop, or the deal stalls and prices snap back above $105. The window between "largely negotiated" and "no one can claim imminent" is where the risk lives.

1. Conflict Status

Parameter	Current	Change vs C103
War Day	87	+1
Ceasefire Day	49	+1
Ceasefire status	HOLDING — Sunday window CLOSED. No signing. No announcement. Framework exists but not finalized.	UPDATED — window definitively closed
Active fronts	5 (Iran air → PAUSED, Lebanon ground ACTIVE, Gulf maritime, Israel domestic, Gulf state infra)	No change
Senior officials killed	6 confirmed	No change
Iran casualties	3,636 killed (HRANA: 1,701 civilians, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified), 26,500+ injured	No change
Iran displaced	3.2M+	No change
Lebanon total deaths since Mar 2	3,100+ killed, 9,300+ wounded	No change
Lebanon ceasefire deaths	680+ killed by Israeli attacks SINCE ceasefire (6 paramedics killed May 22, 22 killed May 19)	UPDATED — paramedic deaths
Lebanon displaced	1.2M	No change
Lebanon ceasefire	Extended 45 days (May 15). Round 4: Jun 2-3. Pentagon security track: May 29.	No change
Trump rhetoric	"Will not rush" — "great and meaningful deal or no deal"	SHIFTED — from "largely negotiated" to cautious
Rubio rhetoric	"Unfeasible" + toll system unacceptable + UN resolution co-sponsorship	No change
Starmer rhetoric	"Unrestricted freedom of navigation" required. Iran must never develop nuclear weapons.	No change
IRGC/Fars rhetoric	"Incomplete and inconsistent with reality" — Hormuz stays under Iran management — no nuclear terms	No change
IRGC Hormuz doctrine	Redefined as "vast operational area" from Jask to Siri Island — doctrinal expansion	No change
Iran FM rhetoric	"Consensus on many topics but no one can claim signing imminent"	SHIFTED — from "final stages" to managing expectations
Iran-Oman toll system	Permanent toll under discussion (Ambassador Nejad → Bloomberg, May 21)	No change
Iran internet blackout	Day 86+ — 2,064+ hours	+1 day
Mojtaba Khamenei status	Approved broad framework (per senior US official). Ordered HEU stays in Iran (May 21). No public appearance since Feb 28.	UPDATED — framework approval confirmed
Deal framework	2-PHASE: Phase 1 = 60-day ceasefire + Hormuz reopening + oil sales. Phase 2 = nuclear negotiations (deferred).	No change
Nuclear gap	Iran: 5yr moratorium. US: 20yr. Landing: 12-15yr. Mojtaba: HEU stays. Iran "agreed in principle" to give up. CONTRADICTION.	No change
Enrichment specifics	Post-moratorium: 3.67% max. HEU stockpile: Russia transfer or dilution options. No underground facilities.	No change
Deal gap	STRUCTURAL — Sunday failure + tone shifts both sides. 3 contradictions + IRGC doctrine + toll persist.	CONFIRMED — failure to close

Key Developments (C103 → C104)

Sunday window CLOSED: No signing. Senior US official: "Iranian system did not move fast enough."
Trump recalibration: "Will not rush" — "great deal or no deal." Tone shift from Saturday's optimism.
Iran FM recalibration: "No one can claim signing imminent" — contradicts "final stages" from May 23.
Mojtaba framework approval: Senior US official confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei "approved the broad framework" — but this is broad approval, not signing authority.
Oil crash: Brent ~$98, WTI ~$91. Market-physical decoupling at maximum.
Lebanon paramedics: 6 killed May 22 in two Israeli strikes. 22 killed May 19.
IRGC doctrine + toll: Persist without challenge or walk-back. Entrenching.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current	Change vs C103
Transits/day	~2/24h (Kpler/IMF PortWatch)	No change
% pre-war baseline	~2% (2/95-140)	No change
IRGC doctrine	"Vast operational area" Jask–Siri (doctrinal expansion)	No change
IRGC claim vs reality	IRGC: 26 / Kpler: ~2 — 13x inflation	No change
Iran-Oman toll system	Permanent toll under discussion (Bloomberg/Ambassador Nejad, May 21)	No change
PGSA fee structure	Up to $2M per transit, yuan + Bitcoin	No change
PGSA institutional status	Permanent — SNSC backed	No change
ADNOC recovery timeline	Full flows: Q1/Q2 2027. 4 months to 80% even with deal.	No change
Trader probability	70% no return to baseline before Sept 1	No change
Supertanker exits	3 VLCCs confirmed	No change
Vessels anchored Gulf	1,550+ (230+ loaded tankers)	No change
Seafarers trapped	22,500	No change
Mine threat	CRITICAL — 20+ mines (Maham-3/7). Iran can't self-clear. IRGC laid more mines late April.	No change
MCM coalition	UK + FR + BE + NL + IT (arriving late May — THIS WEEK)	IMMINENT
P&I absence	Day 49	+1
UKMTO incidents since Feb 28	41+	No change
US counter-blockade	100 redirected, 4 disabled, 26 humanitarian (CENTCOM milestone)	No change
Kharg Island	Zero loadings 10+ days. 80,000 bbl oil spill (May 5-8).	No change
Attack-free window	~164h+ (7+ days)	EXTENDING — unprecedented
Deal terms re Hormuz	US/UK: free, no tolls, mines cleared. Iran: managed + toll. IRGC: vast operational area. Oman: co-manager.	No change
Project Freedom	PAUSED since May 6	No change

Key Hormuz notes: The attack-free window now exceeds 7 days (~164h+) — the longest sustained pause in maritime hostilities since the war began. This should theoretically support de-escalation pricing, but the physical blockade remains absolute at 2 transits/day. MCM coalition (UK-led, 5 nations) is arriving THIS WEEK — positioning for potential deal-triggered mine clearance. The paradox: markets are pricing reopening while zero physical conditions for reopening have been met (mines in place, P&I absent, IRGC doctrine expanded, toll framework active).

3. Tanker Attacks Log

Date	Vessel	Flag	Location	Damage	Casualties	Delta
May 19-20	Ocean Lily	Hong Kong (Sinochem)	Strait of Hormuz (Larak)	CROSSED — ~2M bbl	—	No change
May 19-20	Yuan Gui Yang	China (COSCO)	Strait of Hormuz (Larak)	CROSSED — ~2M bbl	—	No change
May 20	Universal Winner	South Korea (HMM)	Strait of Hormuz (Larak)	CROSSED — 2M bbl Kuwaiti crude — ETA Ulsan Jun 9	—	No change
May 20	Skywave	False flag (stateless)	Indian Ocean	Seized by US Navy — 3rd shadow fleet capture — >1M bbl Iranian crude	—	No change
May 17	[Barakah plant gen.]	UAE	Abu Dhabi (Al Dhafra)	3 drones (2 intercepted, 1 hit) → fire	No injuries	No change
May 17	[Saudi intercepts]	Saudi Arabia	Saudi airspace (from Iraq)	3 drones — ALL intercepted	None	No change
May 14	[unnamed]	Unknown	38nm NE Fujairah	Seized → Iran waters, AIS dark	—	No change
May 13	Haji Ali	India	Strait of Hormuz	SUNK — first sinking	14 rescued	No change

Running total: 80+ commercial incidents + 3 shadow fleet seizures. 41+ UKMTO. ~164h+ attack-free (7+ days, extending) — unprecedented longest pause. No new attacks since C103. The sustained attack-free window continues to be the strongest maritime de-escalation signal. Combined with the 49-day ceasefire, the maritime domain is in the most stable state since the war began — but stability ≠ normalization (2 transits/day).

4. Oil Prices

Instrument	Current (May 25 AM)	Prior (C103 May 24 PM)	Pre-war	Peak	Change vs C103
Brent	~$98/bbl (Monday open, -5.3%)	~$103.54 (May 22 close)	~$75	$119-$126 (Mar 8)	↓ $5.54 — CRASH
WTI	~$91/bbl (Monday open, -5.8%)	~$96.60 (May 22 close)	~$70	—	↓ $5.60 — CRASH
Two-week decline (Brent)	~$108 → $98 = -9.3%	—	—	—	ACCELERATING
Two-week decline (WTI)	~$102 → $91 = -10.8%	—	—	—	ACCELERATING
VLCC day rate (benchmark ATH)	$423,736/day (LSEG)	$423,736	—	—	No change
VLCC spot	$440K-800K/day	—	—	—	No change
Cumulative supply loss	~1 billion+ bbl	~1 billion+	—	—	Continuing
ADNOC CEO forecast	Full flows Q1/Q2 2027. 4 months to 80%.	—	—	—	No change
Trader consensus	70% probability no baseline return before Sept 1	—	—	—	No change

Price interpretation — THE PARADOX: Monday's crash represents the most extreme market-physical decoupling of the crisis. Oil is pricing a deal that: (a) has not been signed, (b) both sides say is "not imminent," (c) Trump says he "will not rush," and (d) faces structural barriers (IRGC doctrine, toll system, HEU contradiction, 5yr vs 20yr moratorium gap). Meanwhile, physical reality: 2 transits/day, P&I absent 49 days, ADNOC says Q1/Q2 2027, mines in water, 22,500 seafarers trapped.

Risk: If no deal materializes by midweek, a violent price reversal is likely. Brent could snap back to $105-108. If a surprise signing occurs, further downside to $93-95 is possible. The market is betting on the diplomatic surface while ignoring the physical substrate.

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Actor	Release	Status	Delta vs C103
IEA coordinated	426M bbl	164M drawn (38%)	No change
US SPR	172M bbl (43% of IEA total)	~409M bbl remaining. Delivery window: 5 days to May 31.	↓ 1 day
Japan	Phase 2 national reserve started May 1. Phase 3 initiated.	263M + 220M bbl. 214 days. First US WTI arrived Apr 26 (Chiba). Private mandate reduced 15 days (Mar 16).	UPDATED — delivery confirmed
India	ISPRL 25M bbl (~64% capacity). Total backup 70-74 days.	Imports from 41 countries. Wind/battery permitting accelerated.	No change
South Korea	~79M bbl + strategic	~200 days. Universal Winner 2M bbl arriving Jun 9.	No change
China	1.2B bbl (EIA Jan 2026 est.) — largest onshore crude stockpile globally	Not releasing. PGSA-transiting.	No change
Global stocks	~93-94 days (accelerating decline)	IEA: "depleting very fast" — 4 mb/d burn rate	No change

SPR note: 5 days to May 31 US delivery window. Japan's two-phase drawdown now active — first US crude arrived Chiba Apr 26. At current burn rate (4 mb/d), SPR runway remains ~47 days vs IRGC's stated 6-month war duration = ~133-day gap. Oil price crash to $91-98 creates perverse incentive: cheaper oil reduces urgency for conservation but doesn't reduce physical supply constraint.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity	Effective Export	Status	Delta vs C103
Saudi East-West Pipeline	7 mb/d throughput	~5 mb/d crude + 700-900k refined	AT CAPACITY	No change
UAE ADCOP	1.5-1.8 mb/d	~1.1-1.3 mb/d	Operational	No change
UAE West-East Pipeline	Double Fujairah (~3 mb/d total)	0 (construction)	50% COMPLETE — 2027	No change
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan	400-650k bpd potential ramp	~200-250k bpd actual, ramp within months	RAMP POTENTIAL	No change
Iraq Basra-Haditha	2.25-2.5 mb/d design	0 (construction)	Late 2026/early 2027	No change
PGSA-tolled Hormuz transit	~2 vessels/24h	<0.5 mb/d crude equiv	COLLAPSED	No change
Total bypass ceiling	—	~6.5-7.5 mb/d (Iraq ramp included)	—	No change
GAP	—	~7.0-8.0 mb/d	—	No change

Bypass notes: No changes to physical bypass capacity. The oil price crash to $91-98 does not reflect any improvement in bypass capacity — the gap remains 7.0-8.0 mb/d. Kurdistan-Baghdad revenue-sharing dispute remains the key constraint on Kirkuk-Ceyhan ramp. Combined pipeline capacity (3.5-5.5 mb/d available) covers roughly 25-35% of pre-war Hormuz throughput.

7. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

Metric	Current	Delta vs C103
P&I absence	Day 49	+1
War risk premium	3-8% of vessel value ($3-8M per VLCC transit)	No change
Hormuz-specific premium	2.5% standard, 5% for US/UK/Israeli-nexus vessels	No change
VLCC day rate (benchmark ATH)	$423,736/day (LSEG)	No change
VLCC spot charters	$440K-800K peak	No change
DFC backstop facility	$40B revolving	No change
PGSA fee structure	Up to $2M per transit, yuan + Bitcoin	No change
Iran-Oman toll proposal	Permanent toll system discussed (Ambassador Nejad → Bloomberg, May 21)	No change
Coalition	40+ nations, UK-France co-led	No change
All 12 IG P&I clubs	War cover cancelled in Gulf confirmed	No change
JMIC risk rating	Arabian Gulf / Hormuz / Gulf of Oman: CRITICAL	No change
ADNOC CEO assessment	4 months to 80% flow even with deal. Full Q1/Q2 2027.	No change

Insurance analysis: Day 49 of P&I absence. The oil price crash has zero effect on insurance re-entry conditions — P&I clubs require JMIC downgrade from CRITICAL, which requires mine clearance, which requires a deal, which has not been signed. The insurance lock remains the hardest structural barrier: even with a signed deal, the minimum sequence (signing → mine clearance → JMIC re-assessment → P&I re-entry → commercial transit) is months, not weeks. ADNOC's 4-month timeline is anchored to this insurance sequence.

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

CENTCOM total redirections: 100 vessels (milestone May 23). 4 disabled. 26 humanitarian. 15,000+ troops, 200+ aircraft/warships, 2 carrier strike groups.
Admiral Brad Cooper: "Zero trade into and out of Iranian ports."
Shadow fleet seizures: 3 total (Skywave May 20 + Majestic X + Tifani April). 10+ seized since Dec 2025 (Operation Southern Spear).
OFAC May designations: 19 vessels + Amin Exchange ("Economic Fury"). Hengli Petrochemical (Chinese teapot refinery) + ~40 shipping firms sanctioned. Secondary sanctions warning.
Total sanctions since Trump inauguration: 180+ vessels sanctioned in Iranian petroleum trade.
Shadow fleet size: ~430 tankers in Iranian trade. 62% falsely flagged. 87% sanctioned. ~300M bbl unsold on shadow tankers at sea.
Iran crude exports: 1.4 mb/d despite blockade (IEA). Blockade porous but tightening.
Deal implications: If Phase 1 MOU signed, US lifts blockade + issues sanctions waivers. Shadow fleet enforcement posture reverses entirely. Fastest-reversible lock. But NO signing has occurred.
Iran internet blackout: Day 86+ (2,064+ hours). Two-tier "Internet Pro" system.

No change from C103. Shadow fleet/sanctions status stable. The key tension: if a deal is signed, sanctions waivers are the fastest-reversible lock. But the deal has not been signed, and both sides are walking back urgency.

9. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Actions	Risk	Delta vs C103
UAE	STRUCK + BUILDING BYPASS	Barakah hit. West-East Pipeline 50%. ADNOC CEO: full flows Q1/Q2 2027.	CRITICAL + ADAPTING	No change
Saudi Arabia	STRUCK + RESTRAINT	Petroline at capacity 7 mb/d.	ELEVATED	No change
Qatar	MEDIATOR	LNG force majeure. Ras Laffan 3-5yr repair. 20% global LNG removed.	ACTIVE MEDIATOR + DAMAGED	No change
Oman	HORMUZ CO-MANAGER + TOLL PARTNER	Permanent toll system under discussion with Iran	CRITICAL — EXPANDED ROLE	No change
Iran	FRAMEWORK DRAFTING + EXPECTATIONS MANAGING	FM: "no one can claim signing imminent." Mojtaba: framework approved broadly. IRGC doctrine persists.	GOVERNANCE REAL + ENTRENCHING	SHIFTED — expectations walked back
China	Xi: "ceasefire of utmost urgency"	>10 PGSA transits. Hengli Petrochemical sanctioned by OFAC.	LOW (buffered) — SANCTIONS PRESSURE RISING	No change
Russia	"United front" with China	Putin: ties "unprecedented." HEU transfer option discussed.	ALIGNED WITH IRAN	No change
Japan	Phase 2 drawdown ACTIVE	214 days reserve. First US WTI arrived Apr 26 (Chiba). Coal restart.	MODERATE	UPDATED — delivery confirmed
India	Active diplomacy + reserves	25M bbl strategic + 70-74d total backup. Imports from 41 countries. Wind/battery permitting accelerated.	HIGH	No change
South Korea	PGSA TRANSIT CONFIRMED	Universal Winner → ETA Ulsan Jun 9.	ACTIVE	No change
Pakistan	MEDIATOR — MILITARY-LEVEL ACCESS	Naqvi met IRGC chief Vahidi. Ghalibaf directly negotiating.	ACTIVE	No change
UK	DEAL VOICE + MCM DEPLOYING	Starmer: "unrestricted freedom of navigation." MCM arriving THIS WEEK.	ACTIVE	No change
Philippines	GRID CRISIS — WORSENING	National energy emergency. 4-day work week. ₱20B fund. Rotational brownouts — 2M+ per outage. 35 days to Jun 30 deadline.	CRITICAL — 35 days	↓ 1 day
Vietnam	FRAGILE	Hanoi/HCMC rationing. Rolling blackouts.	HIGH	No change
Thailand	RATIONING	License plate odd/even. 3-phase contingency plan. Coal restart (Mae Moh).	HIGH	No change
Myanmar	ALTERNATING DRIVING	Odd/even + domestic flights suspended	CRITICAL	No change
Sri Lanka	QR RATIONING	Cars 15L/week, motorbikes 5L	CRITICAL	No change
Lebanon	CEASEFIRE VIOLATED	3,100+ killed total. 680+ since ceasefire. 6 paramedics killed May 22.	CRITICAL — WORSENING	UPDATED — paramedic targeting
US (domestic)	SENATE CONSTRAINT + RUBIO REDLINE	War Powers Resolution 50-47. Rubio: toll = unfeasible + UN resolution.	POLITICAL FRICTION	No change

10. Policy & Regulatory Actions

Date	Actor	Action	Delta vs C103
May 25	Trump	"Will not rush" — "great and meaningful deal or no deal." Tone shift from Saturday optimism.	NEW — recalibration
May 25	Iran FM spokesman	"Consensus on many topics but no one can claim signing imminent."	NEW — expectations managed down
May 25	Senior US official	Confirmed Mojtaba approved "broad framework" but no signing Sunday — "Iranian system did not move fast enough."	NEW — structural delay
May 25	Oil markets	Brent ~$98 (-5.3%), WTI ~$91 (-5.8%). Largest single-session crash since war began.	NEW — market-physical decoupling
May 24	[NO SIGNING — WINDOW CLOSED]	Sunday afternoon window closed without announcement.	CONFIRMED — failed
May 24	CNN	2-phase deal structure detailed	No change
May 24	Starmer (UK PM)	"Unrestricted freedom of navigation"	No change
May 24	Axios	EXCLUSIVE: Inside the deal — 60-day MOU details	No change
May 23	Trump	"Largely negotiated" — "solid 50/50" — "relief for performance"	NOW CONTRADICTED by May 25 tone
May 23	Washington Times	EXCLUSIVE: Draft agreed Saturday, sent to leaders	DEADLINE FAILED
May 23	Fars (IRGC)	"Incomplete and inconsistent with reality"	No change
May 23	Iran FM Baqaei	"Final stages" — 14-clause MOU	NOW CONTRADICTED by May 25 FM
May 22	Rubio	Toll system "unfeasible" + UN resolution	No change
May 22	Israel	6 paramedics killed in Lebanon (two strikes)	CONFIRMED — May 22
May 21	IRGC Navy	Hormuz = "vast operational area" Jask–Siri	No change
May 21	Iran Ambassador Nejad	Permanent toll system with Oman	No change
May 21	Mojtaba Khamenei	Ordered HEU stays in Iran	No change
May 21	ADNOC CEO	Full flows Q1/Q2 2027. 4 months to 80%.	No change
May 19	OFAC	19 vessels + Amin Exchange + Hengli Petrochemical + ~40 firms	No change

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend
Conflict day	87	+1
Ceasefire day	49	+1
Ceasefire status	HOLDING — Sunday window CLOSED, deal unsigned	CONFIRMED FAILURE
Iran casualties	3,636 killed (HRANA), 26,500+ injured	—
Lebanon total deaths	3,100+ killed since Mar 2	—
Lebanon ceasefire deaths	680+ killed since ceasefire. 6 paramedics killed May 22.	↑
Bushehr strikes	4 confirmed	—
Strait transits/day	~2/24h	COLLAPSED
VLCCs transited	3 confirmed	—
PGSA institutional status	Permanent — SNSC backed	—
IRGC Hormuz doctrine	"Vast operational area" Jask–Siri	ENTRENCHING
Iran-Oman toll system	Permanent toll under discussion	ENTRENCHING
Mine status	20+ mines (Maham-3/7). More laid late April. Cannot self-clear.	—
MCM coalition	UK + FR + BE + NL + IT — arriving THIS WEEK	IMMINENT
Brent	~$98/bbl	↓ CRASH -5.3%
WTI	~$91/bbl	↓ CRASH -5.8%
VLCC day rate (ATH)	$423,736	—
VLCC spot	$440K-800K per charter	—
War risk premium	3-8% ($3-8M per transit)	—
Vessels attacked (total)	80+	—
Attack-free window	~164h+ (7+ days)	EXTENDING — record
Shadow fleet seizures	3 (+10 since Dec via Op Southern Spear)	—
Total vessels sanctioned (Trump admin)	180+	—
US blockade	100 redirected, 4 disabled (CENTCOM milestone)	—
Kharg loadings	ZERO 10+ days	—
Kharg oil spill	80,000 bbl (May 5-8, single event)	—
SPR drawn	164M / 426M (38%)	—
SPR delivery window	5 days to May 31	↓ 1 day
Global oil stocks	~93-94 days	Accelerating decline
Bypass capacity	~6.5-7.5 mb/d (Iraq ramp potential)	—
Supply gap	~7.0-8.0 mb/d	—
P&I absence	Day 49	+1
Iran crude exports (despite blockade)	1.4 mb/d (IEA)	—
Qatar LNG	Force majeure. Ras Laffan 3-5yr. 20% global LNG removed.	—
SE Asia crisis	PH (35d to Jun 30, ₱20B fund), VN, TH, MM, LK	DEEPENING
Deal status	2-PHASE: P1 = 60-day + Hormuz + oil. P2 = nuclear. NOT SIGNED. Both sides walking back urgency.	STALLED
Nuclear gap	Iran "agreed in principle" to give up HEU. Mojtaba ordered it stays. 5yr vs 20yr moratorium.	CONTRADICTION
Deal gap	US/UK: free passage + no nuclear. Iran: managed + toll + no HEU export. IRGC: vast area.	WIDENED
Trump rhetoric	"Will not rush" — "great deal or no deal"	SHIFTED — cautious
Iran FM rhetoric	"No one can claim signing imminent"	SHIFTED — managed down
Rubio rhetoric	Toll "unfeasible" + UN resolution	—
Starmer rhetoric	"Unrestricted freedom of navigation"	—
IRGC/Fars rhetoric	"Incomplete and inconsistent with reality"	—
CENTCOM redirections	100	—
Project Freedom	PAUSED since May 6	—
ADNOC recovery timeline	Full flows Q1/Q2 2027. 4 months to 80%.	—
Trader consensus	70% no baseline before Sept 1	—
Normalization clock	21 days to mid-June threshold	↓ 1 day
Iran internet blackout	Day 86+ (2,064+ hours)	+1
IRGC transit inflation	26 claimed / 2 actual = 13x	—
Hengli Petrochemical	Sanctioned by OFAC — Chinese teapot refinery	—

12. Convergence Assessment

What Changed (C103 → C104)

Signal	Status	Assessment
Sunday window CLOSED	CONFIRMED — CRITICAL	The "24 hours" promise failed. No signing. No announcement. Senior US official: "Iranian system did not move fast enough." This is the first concrete timeline failure in the deal process.
Oil crash: Brent ~$98, WTI ~$91	NEW — CRITICAL	Largest single-session drop since war began. Two-week decline: Brent -9.3%, WTI -10.8%. Market has fully front-run a deal that doesn't exist. Maximum market-physical decoupling.
Trump: "will not rush"	SHIFTED	From "largely negotiated" (Sat) to cautious (Sun). Either positioning for harder terms or acknowledging genuine gaps. Either interpretation = deal is further away than Saturday suggested.
Iran FM: "no one can claim signing imminent"	SHIFTED	From "final stages" (May 23) to managed expectations. Tehran and Washington simultaneously walking back urgency = structural delay, not tactical pause.
Mojtaba: "approved broad framework"	CONFIRMED	Senior US official confirms broad approval — but "broad" ≠ final. The gap between broad approval and signing authority is where the IRGC doctrine, toll system, and HEU contradiction live.
Lebanon: 6 paramedics killed May 22	UPDATED	Targeting of medical personnel. 680+ killed since ceasefire. Ceasefire violations systematizing.
MCM coalition arriving THIS WEEK	IMMINENT	UK + FR + BE + NL + IT mine clearance assets pre-positioned. This is deal-contingent — they deploy on signing, not before.
Attack-free window: 164h+ (7+ days)	EXTENDING	Longest sustained pause. Maritime domain at most stable state since war began. But stability ≠ reopening.
Japan Phase 2 + US crude delivery	CONFIRMED	First US WTI arrived Chiba Apr 26. Phase 2 national reserve drawdown started May 1. Japan's 214-day reserve providing buffer.

Structural Locks (11) — C104 REASSESSMENT

#	Lock	Status	Change vs C103
1	Price	WTI ~$91, Brent ~$98. CRASH. Two-week: -9.3%/-10.8%.	PARADOX — price improving but on phantom deal
2	Supply	~1B+ bbl lost. Gap 7.0-8.0 mb/d. Transit 2/day.	No change
3	Insurance	Day 49. P&I absent. JMIC: CRITICAL. Toll adds permanent variable.	+1 day
4	Labor	Day 49. 22,500 seafarers. Crew refusals systemic.	+1 day
5	Duration	Sunday window CLOSED. Both sides walking back urgency. 2-phase structure allows partial deal.	WORSENED — timeline failure
6	Nuclear	HEU contradiction unresolved. 5yr vs 20yr. Deferred to Phase 2.	No change
7	Geographic	5 fronts. Lebanon: 3,100+. 680+ since ceasefire. Paramedics targeted.	UPDATED — paramedic targeting
8	Capability	MCM coalition arriving THIS WEEK. Pre-positioned for deal trigger.	IMMINENT — not yet deployed
9	Dual chokepoint	Hormuz ~2/day. Houthis resumed Red Sea. Red Sea capacity -49%.	No change
10	Normalization clock	21 days to mid-June. ADNOC: Q1/Q2 2027. Clock and industry timeline diverge.	↓ 1 day
11	Energy infrastructure	$25-58B repair. South Pars 75% damaged. Ras Laffan 3-5yr. 20% global LNG removed.	No change

Sovereignty infrastructure (12th lock candidate): IRGC "vast operational area" + Iran-Oman toll + PGSA permanence. No walk-back, no challenge. Continues to entrench. Neither Trump's "will not rush" nor Iran FM's "consensus on many topics" addressed the sovereignty dimension — it persists beneath the deal framework.

Food vector: No change. Philippines 35 days to Jun 30. SE Asia cascade continuing.

Lock reassessment: C104 shows 1 lock worsened (Duration — timeline failure), 1 paradox (Price — improving on phantom deal), 1 updated (Geographic — paramedic targeting), 1 imminent shift (Capability — MCM arriving), 7 stable. The dominant dynamic is the market-physical decoupling: prices behaving as if locks are opening while zero locks have actually opened.

Net lock count: 0 improved (the price drop is a PARADOX, not an improvement — it's based on a deal that doesn't exist), 1 worsened, 1 paradox, 9 stable. Direction: CONDITIONAL — PARADOX STATE. Market pricing resolution while physical conditions price stasis.

Critical Watch — Next 12-24 Hours

Monday market trajectory: Do prices stabilize at $91/$98 or bounce? If no deal signal by Tuesday, reversal begins.
Deal next step: After Sunday failure, what is the new timeline? "Coming days" per senior official — but which days?
IRGC response to oil crash: Does the price drop reduce Iran's leverage (cheaper oil = less revenue from PGSA transits)?
MCM coalition arrival: UK-led mine clearance assets arriving late May = this week. Any public deployment announcement?
Lebanon Pentagon May 29: 4 days.
SPR May 31: 5 days — US delivery window closing.
HEU mechanism: Any resolution to the "agreed in principle" vs "Mojtaba ordered stays" contradiction?
Iran FM next statement: Does "no one can claim imminent" become "framework finalized" or "negotiations continue"?
Philippines Jun 30: 35 days.
Trader repositioning: If $91 WTI holds through Tuesday without deal, short-covering rally likely.

Net Assessment

C104 marks the emergence of a paradox state — the most dangerous configuration since the ceasefire began.

The paradox: Oil prices have crashed 9-11% over two weeks on deal optimism, reaching $91 WTI / $98 Brent — the lowest levels since mid-March. Yet no deal has been signed. Both sides have simultaneously walked back urgency: Trump shifted from "largely negotiated" to "will not rush," while Iran's FM moved from "final stages" to "no one can claim signing imminent." The Sunday signing window — the most concrete timeline offered — closed without action, with US officials blaming "the Iranian system."

Why this is dangerous: The price crash creates three compounding risks. First, it reduces Iran's economic pressure to sign — cheaper oil means less urgency for sanctions relief. Second, it reduces Western urgency for SPR conservation — a false sense of resolution at exactly the moment reserves are burning at 4 mb/d. Third, it creates a price snap-back risk: if no deal materializes by midweek, the market correction will be violent, potentially overshooting to $108-112 as traders unwind positions.

The physical reality is unchanged: 2 transits/day. P&I absent 49 days. 20+ mines in water. ADNOC says Q1/Q2 2027. IRGC claims "vast operational area." Iran-Oman toll formalizing. 22,500 seafarers trapped. 1,550+ vessels anchored. Zero conditions for reopening have been met. The market is pricing the end of the crisis while the crisis continues at full physical intensity.

What holds: The 7+ day attack-free window is real. The ceasefire is holding. The MCM coalition is arriving. Mojtaba has approved a "broad framework." These are genuine de-escalation signals — but they are preconditions for a deal, not the deal itself. The gap between preconditions and execution is where every structural lock lives.

Revised severity: EXTREME — HIGH → EXTREME — HIGH (PARADOX). The paradox state adds a new risk dimension: market-driven complacency during an ongoing physical crisis. The severity hasn't changed because the physical reality hasn't changed. What's changed is that the market now actively undermines the urgency needed to close the remaining gaps.

C105 Triggers

Monday close: Do oil prices hold at $91/$98 or bounce?
Deal timeline: New "coming days" deadline — any specificity?
MCM deployment announcement: UK mine clearance arriving this week
IRGC response: To oil crash + Sunday failure
Lebanon Pentagon May 29: 4 days
SPR May 31: 5 days — US delivery window
HEU contradiction: Resolution mechanism?
Transit trajectory: 2/day holding or moving?
Trader repositioning: Short-covering if no deal by Tuesday
Philippines Jun 30: 35 days

Sources

Compiled by Scout 🏹 — C104 / War Day 87 / Ceasefire Day 49. 2026-05-25 morning.