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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-05-17 · Night Cycle

Date: 2026-05-17
Cycle: C86 (third of day)
War Day: 79 (conflict began 2026-02-28)
Ceasefire Day: 41 (ceasefire began 2026-04-07)
Risk Level: EXTREME — MAXIMUM (CONFIRMED)
Grok bridge: NO — full web sweep (Apple Notes MCP timed out)
Prior Cycle: C85, 2026-05-17 (evening)

Cycle Frame

UAE CONDEMNS "TREACHEROUS TERRORIST ATTACK" — RESERVES MILITARY RIGHTS — IAEA: "UNACCEPTABLE" — COUNTDOWN RHETORIC EMERGING

Three consolidation signals since C85 evening:

UAE official response: Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed condemned the Barakah strike as a "treacherous terrorist attack" and "dangerous escalation." UAE MoFA reserves "full sovereign, legitimate, diplomatic, and military rights to respond." CRITICAL: UAE has NOT attributed the attack to a specific party — maintaining diplomatic ambiguity while reserving escalation options.
IAEA Grossi "grave concern": Rafael Grossi formally stated "military activity that threatens nuclear safety is unacceptable" — calling for maximum restraint near nuclear plants. International red line now officially invoked by the nuclear watchdog.
"The countdown has started": Al Bawaba reporting "unprecedented military activity" in Gulf waters. Combined with Trump "calm before the storm" + NYT May 19-23 window = convergence of preparation signals from multiple independent sources.

The system has transitioned from pre-kinetic convergence (C84-C85) to active countdown. The May 19-23 window opens in <48 hours.

1. Conflict Status

Parameter	Current	Change vs C85
War Day	79	No change (same day)
Ceasefire Day	41	No change
Ceasefire status	ACTIVE COUNTDOWN	UPGRADED from PRE-COLLAPSE — UAE military rights reserved + IAEA invoked + "countdown" rhetoric
Active fronts	5 (Iran air prep, Lebanon ground, Gulf maritime, Israel domestic, UAE nuclear infrastructure)	No change
Senior officials killed	6 confirmed	No change
Iran displaced	3.2M+	No change
Lebanon killed since Mar 2	2,896+	Confirmed — Israel struck 5+ villages day after ceasefire extension
Lebanon displaced	1.2M	No change
Barakah plant status	Fire contained, no radiation, all units normal	No change in physical status
Attack attribution	NOT ATTRIBUTED — UAE investigating, 3 drones from western border, 2 intercepted	NEW DETAIL

Key Developments Since C85 (Evening → Night)

UAE CONDEMNS "TREACHEROUS TERRORIST ATTACK": Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed's statement. MoFA: "dangerous escalation," "unacceptable act of aggression," "direct threat" to national security. UAE reserves full diplomatic AND military rights to respond. "Will not tolerate any threat to its security and sovereignty under any circumstances."
UAE does NOT attribute attack: Despite condemning it as "terrorist," the UAE has not publicly named Iran or any other party. Three drones entered from western border — 2 intercepted by air defenses, 1 caused the generator fire. Diplomatic ambiguity preserved.
IAEA Grossi formal statement: "Grave concern." "Military activity that threatens nuclear safety is unacceptable." Called for maximum military restraint near nuclear plants. This echoes Grossi's earlier statements on Bushehr — now extended to UAE civilian nuclear infrastructure.
"The countdown has started": Al Bawaba report citing "unprecedented military activity" in Gulf waters. Independent corroboration of NYT's May 19-23 preparation window.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon day after ceasefire extension: At least 5 villages struck Saturday (May 17), including one 50km from border. Preceded by evacuation warnings for 9 villages. NNA confirmed strikes. Ceasefire extension is operational fiction.
Gulf waters military buildup: Multiple sources noting unusual naval activity consistent with pre-strike positioning. UK announced deployment of drones, fighter aircraft, and a Royal Navy warship for Hormuz defensive mission.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Parameter	Current	Change vs C85
Transits/day	Single digits to low 20s	No change
% pre-war baseline	~5% (6 transits May 3, 5 on May 4 confirmed)	No change
Vessels anchored Gulf	1,550+	No change
Seafarers trapped	22,500	No change
PGSA take-up (commercial)	Zero	No change
PGSA take-up (Chinese flag)	CONFIRMED OPERATIONAL (>10 in 2 days)	No change
P&I insurance absence	Day 41	No change
Mine threat	CRITICAL — coalition MCM advancing	No change
UKMTO incidents since Feb 28	41	No change
Subsurface threat	Ghadir mini-subs deployed	No change
Project Freedom	PAUSED (since May 6)	No change
Pre-war average transits	138/day	Baseline reference
IRGC operational zone	Redefined: Jask to Siri Island (expanded from traditional corridor)	CONFIRMED
UK deployment	Drones + fighter aircraft + warship for defensive mission	NEW

Barakah + UAE military rights implication: If UAE exercises military response option, the Strait becomes a potential UAE-Iran flashpoint IN ADDITION to US-Iran. This transforms the maritime calculus — currently only US/China/India have naval interests in the Strait. UAE belligerence would add a Gulf state as an active party to maritime operations.

3. Tanker Attacks Log

Date	Vessel	Flag	Location	Damage	Casualties	Delta
May 17	[Barakah plant gen.]	UAE	Abu Dhabi (Al Dhafra)	3 drones (2 intercepted, 1 hit generator) → fire	No injuries	Detail updated: 3 drones, 2 intercepted
May 13	Haji Ali	India	Strait of Hormuz	SUNK — first sinking	14 rescued	—
May 14	[unnamed]	Unknown	38nm NE Fujairah (anchor)	Seized → Iran waters, AIS dark	—	—
May 5	CMA CGM San Antonio	—	Strait of Hormuz	Cruise missile hit	8 injured	—
May 5	HMM Namu	S. Korea	Off Umm Al Quwain	Explosion/fire, MAYDAY	—	—
May 4	MV Barakah (ADNOC)	UAE	Strait of Hormuz	2 drones hit	No injuries	—

Running total: 80+ commercial incidents + 1 nuclear infrastructure strike since Feb 28. 41 UKMTO confirmed.

Category update: Barakah attack details refined — 3 drones launched from western border direction, 2 intercepted by UAE air defenses, 1 penetrated to generator. This demonstrates both capability (3-drone saturation) and partial defense success (2/3 intercept rate).

4. Oil Prices

Instrument	Current	Prior (C85)	Pre-war	Peak	Change vs C85
Brent (futures)	$109.26	$109.26	~$75	$119-$126 (Mar 8)	MARKETS CLOSED (Sunday)
WTI (futures)	$105.42	$105.42	~$70	—	MARKETS CLOSED
US gasoline (avg)	~$4.63+	~$4.63+	—	—	No change
YoY Brent change	~+63%+	~+63%+	—	—	—
Cumulative supply loss	~1 billion+ bbl	~1 billion	—	—	Continuing

Monday May 18 market open — CRITICAL WATCH: Markets closed on Friday at Brent $109.26 (pulled back from $113.21 intraday). Since close:

Barakah nuclear plant struck (Saturday May 17)
Trump "calm before the storm" + "one big glow" (Saturday May 17)
IAEA "grave concern" (Saturday May 17)
UAE reserves military rights (Saturday May 17)
"Unprecedented military activity" in Gulf (Saturday May 17)
Israel strikes 5+ Lebanon villages (Saturday May 17)

ALL of these events occurred AFTER Friday close. Monday gap-up is near-certain. Watch:

$110-$112: Base case on Barakah alone
$113-$115: If UAE attribution + military posture escalates overnight
$115+: If May 19-23 strike signals intensify Sunday/Monday pre-market

Structural drivers unchanged: Round 5 failure + 5 Iran conditions → no deal. IEA: undersupplied through October. SPR 50% exported. Aramco: normalization into 2027 if disruption persists past mid-June (29 days).

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Actor	Release	Status	Delta vs C85
IEA coordinated	400M bbl (largest ever)	Ongoing — structured as exchange (repay 120% later)	No change
US SPR	172M bbl (43% of IEA total)	~409M bbl remaining (Apr 10). ~50% being exported.	No change
Japan	Phase 3 initiated	214 days total coverage. Phase 3 allocations to Eneos, Idemitsu, Cosmo, Taiyo.	No change
India	ISPRL 21.4M bbl (~60 days)	India-UAE strategic LPG deal (Modi visit).	No change
South Korea	~79M bbl + strategic	Claims ~200 days	No change
China	1.4B bbl (~108 days)	World's largest. Not releasing.	No change

SPR runway math (unchanged): 400M ÷ ~8.5 mb/d effective gap ≈ 47 days nominal. 50% export leakage = ~24 days domestic. IRGC says 6-month war. Gap: >130 days if ceasefire collapses.

US SPR level: ~409M bbl as of April 10. Draw rate accelerating. If ceasefire collapses and draw doubles, runway compresses to weeks not months.

6. Bypass Infrastructure

Route	Capacity	Effective Export	Status	Delta vs C85
Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline)	7 mb/d throughput	~5 mb/d crude + 700-900k refined	AT CAPACITY	No change
UAE ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah)	1.5-1.8 mb/d	~1.1-1.3 mb/d	Operational — but Barakah strike raises endpoint vulnerability	THREAT UPGRADED
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan	250k bpd announced → ~200k actual	0.2 mb/d	Reduced flow	No change
Iraq Basra-Haditha (NEW)	2.5 mb/d design	0 (construction phase)	$1.5B allocated, work started May 1	No change
UAE West-East Pipeline	Double Fujairah capacity	0 (construction)	Fast-tracked by Sheikh Khaled. 2027.	CONFIRMED — CNBC/Al Jazeera
Total bypass ceiling	—	~6.3-6.5 mb/d	No change
IEA disruption volume	—	~14 mb/d
GAP	—	~7.5-7.7 mb/d MINIMUM	UNBRIDGEABLE	No change

Barakah strike → bypass vulnerability: Fujairah is the ADCOP terminus AND the UAE's primary bypass export point. If the adversary that struck Barakah (30km from Fujairah) escalates to target Fujairah infrastructure, ~1.3 mb/d of bypass collapses. The West-East pipeline (2027) is specifically designed to address this — but it's 12+ months away.

7. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

Metric	Current	Delta vs C85
P&I absence	Day 41	No change
War risk premium (VLCC)	3-8% hull value per transit	No change
Cost per VLCC transit	$3-8M (pre-crisis: ~$200K)	No change
VLCC day rate peak	$423,736/day (LSEG record)	No change
VLCC spot extreme	$700,000/day reported	No change
1-year VLCC time charter	$93,000-$105,000/day	No change
DFC backstop facility	$40B revolving	Operational
Lloyd's JWC zone	Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar	No change
All major carriers	Suspended transits	No change
UK deployment	Drones + fighter aircraft + warship for defensive mission	NEW

IAEA "unacceptable" + UAE "treacherous terrorist attack" impact: Nuclear plant targeting during ceasefire ELIMINATES remaining theoretical pathways to insurer re-entry. Lloyd's "stands ready" conditional offer now faces:

Nuclear infrastructure targeting (unprecedented in Gulf)
UAE reserving military response (potential new belligerent)
IAEA condemnation (regulatory framework signals extreme risk)
UK deploying military assets (confirms operational threat assessment)

P&I re-entry is now structurally impossible until conclusive conflict termination + verified decommissioning of threat capabilities. Timeline: months minimum, likely quarters.

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

Trump sanctions decision: STILL PENDING. Now 72h+ since "over the next few days" (May 15 AF1). Weekend may explain delay. Watch Monday.
Binary pending: Bloomberg May 15 — Trump "may remove some Iran-linked sanctions on China." CNBC confirmed: decision coming on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil.
If lifted: Beijing off-ramp, price relief signal, but Hormuz physically unchanged. Diplomatic gesture, not operational resolution.
If maintained: China blocking statute deepens bifurcation. Hengli + 4 refineries ordered to defy US. Legal confrontation escalates.
China blocking statute: Commerce Ministry directive invoking 2021 statute — firms ORDERED to defy US sanctions. First formal use of Blocking Rules.
Shadow fleet size: 1,400+ vessels (~25% global tanker fleet). No change.
US counter-blockade: Continues since April 13. Fired on Iranian tankers May 7-8. IRGC retaliated.

9. Country Response Matrix

Country	Posture	Actions	Risk	Delta vs C85
UAE	STRUCK + MILITARY RIGHTS RESERVED	Barakah hit. "Treacherous terrorist attack." Full rights to respond. NOT attributing to specific party.	CRITICAL	UPGRADED — military response option now on table
China	Strategic ambiguity	>10 ships under PGSA, blocking statute, 1.4B bbl reserve	LOW (buffered)	No change
Japan	Phase 3 drawdown	214 days coverage. Phase 3 allocations confirmed.	MODERATE	No change
India	Active diplomacy	ISPRL 60 days, India-UAE LPG deal, Haji Ali condemnation	HIGH	No change
South Korea	Coordinated response	~200 days claimed	MODERATE	No change
Philippines	GRID CRISIS	Luzon + Visayas on red/yellow alert. Rotational brownouts 2M people. National emergency since Mar 24. 1.3-3.1M poverty risk. Supply lasts to Jun 30.	CRITICAL	No change
Pakistan	4-day workweek	Petrol ₹400/L. No strategic reserves. Mediator role.	HIGH-CRITICAL	No change
Vietnam	Critical	<20 days supply	HIGH	No change
Thailand	Price caps	Fuel fund depleting, banned exports	HIGH	No change
Australia	Emergency measures	Publicly addressing fuel shortages	MODERATE	No change
UK	Deploying military assets	Drones + fighter aircraft + warship for Hormuz defensive mission	ACTIVE	NEW

UAE escalation pathway: The UAE's non-attribution is strategic. If they attribute to Iran, it triggers either: (a) UAE military response → new belligerent → Strait further destabilized, or (b) UAE invokes collective defense → draws in additional parties. Either path escalates. Non-attribution preserves optionality while the May 19-23 window plays out — if US/Israel strike Iran, UAE may align without needing to act independently.

10. Policy & Regulatory Actions

Date	Actor	Action	Delta vs C85
May 17	UAE MoFA	"Treacherous terrorist attack" — reserves full military rights	NEW
May 17	IAEA (Grossi)	"Grave concern" — nuclear safety threat "unacceptable"	NEW — CONFIRMED
May 17	UAE	Investigation launched into drone source. 3 drones, 2 intercepted. NOT attributed.	NEW
May 17	UK	Deploying drones + fighters + warship for Hormuz defensive mission	NEW
May 17	Iran drone	Barakah Nuclear Plant struck (generator fire, no radiation)	—
May 17	Trump	"Calm Before the Storm" + "one big glow" threats	—
May 17	Iran FM	"Cannot trust the Americans at all"	—
May 15-16	NYT/officials	US/Israel "most intense preparations" for renewed strikes, May 19-23	—
May 15	US State Dept	Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended 45 days	—
May 15	Trump (AF1)	Sanctions decision "over next few days" — STILL PENDING	72h+ elapsed
May 15	Trump	May accept 20-year enrichment suspension with "real guarantee"	—
May 13	NBC News	Pentagon "Operation Sledgehammer" — resets WPR 60-day clock	Confirmed

Negotiation framework status: 14-point MOU being negotiated (Witkoff/Kushner ↔ Iranian officials). Would declare war ended + 30-day negotiation period. Enrichment moratorium: Iran offered 5 years, US demands 20, likely landing 12-15. Trump "totally unacceptable" rejection of Round 5. No Round 6 scheduled. Framework exists on paper but neither side moving toward it.

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Trend
Conflict day	79	—
Ceasefire day	41	—
Ceasefire status	ACTIVE COUNTDOWN — Barakah + UAE military rights + IAEA + "countdown" rhetoric	⚠️ UPGRADED
Casualties (total war)	7,000+ injuries, 24+ killed (Iran retaliatory); 2,896+ Lebanon	—
Strait transits/day	Single digits to low 20s (~5% baseline)	—
Brent (futures)	$109.26 (Friday close — Monday gap-up expected)	↑ expected
WTI	$105.42 (Friday close)	↑ expected
VLCC day rate (record)	$423,736	—
VLCC spot extreme	$700,000/day	—
War risk premium	3-8% hull value	—
Vessels attacked (total)	80+	—
SPR release (IEA)	400M bbl ongoing	~409M bbl US remaining
Iraq exports (Kirkuk-Ceyhan)	~200k bpd actual	—
Bypass capacity (effective)	~6.3-6.5 mb/d	Threat to ADCOP terminus
Supply gap	~7.5-7.7 mb/d	UNBRIDGEABLE
India reserves	~60 days + UAE deal	—
China reserves	~108 days (1.4B bbl)	Not releasing
Mine threat	CRITICAL	—
P&I absence	Day 41	Structurally permanent
Qatar LNG	Force majeure (Ras Laffan + South Pars struck)	—
Dual chokepoint (Hormuz + Red Sea)	BOTH DISRUPTED	—
Ceasefire collapse probability	NEAR-CERTAIN — active countdown, <48h to window	↑↑ MAXIMUM
SE Asia crisis	Philippines national emergency (supply to Jun 30), Pakistan ₹400/L, Vietnam <20d	—
Kharg slick	~80k bbl, Qatar EEZ trajectory	—
Normalization clock	29 days to mid-June threshold	Ticking
Barakah nuclear plant	STRUCK — 3 drones (2 intercepted, 1 hit), UAE reserves military rights	DETAIL UPDATED
Operation Sledgehammer	Pentagon naming confirmed, WPR clock reset	—
UAE military response	Reserved — not yet exercised, not yet attributed	NEW
UK military deployment	Drones + fighters + warship → Hormuz	NEW
Gulf military activity	"Unprecedented" — multiple sources	NEW

12. Convergence Assessment

What Changed (C85 → C86, evening → night same day)

Signal	Status	Assessment
UAE "treacherous terrorist attack" condemnation	NEW	Strongest language available short of war declaration. Military rights explicitly reserved.
UAE non-attribution	NEW — STRATEGIC	Preserves diplomatic optionality. If US/Israel strike Iran in May 19-23 window, UAE can align without having initiated.
IAEA Grossi "grave concern"	CONFIRMED	International nuclear watchdog now formally on record. Red line invoked.
3-drone attack detail	NEW	Saturation tactic: 3 launched, 2 intercepted, 1 penetrated. 33% success rate against UAE air defense.
"The countdown has started" + Gulf military buildup	NEW	Independent source confirming pre-strike positioning. Consistent with NYT May 19-23.
UK military deployment to Hormuz	NEW	Drones + fighters + warship. Coalition forming around Hormuz defensive mission.
Israel strikes 5+ Lebanon villages day after extension	CONFIRMED	Ceasefire is operational fiction. 9-village evacuation warnings issued.
Trump sanctions decision	STALE — 72h+	Weekend may explain, but prolonged delay itself is a signal — decision likely coupled to strike timing.

Structural Locks (11)

#	Lock	Status	Change vs C85
1	Price	$109.26 Friday close. Weekend events = Monday gap-up near-certain. $110-115 range.	GAP-UP INCOMING
2	Supply	~1 billion bbl cumulative. 7.5-7.7 mb/d gap.	No change
3	Insurance	Day 41. IAEA "unacceptable" + UAE military rights = P&I re-entry now structurally impossible.	HARDENED FURTHER
4	Labor	Day 41. 22,500 seafarers. Nuclear plant strike + "countdown" rhetoric.	HARDENED
5	Duration	No Round 6. 14-point MOU exists but neither side moving. "Cannot trust Americans."	No change
6	Nuclear	Barakah struck (civilian 4-reactor plant). IAEA invoked. Both sides crossing nuclear-adjacent thresholds.	INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE CONFIRMED
7	Geographic	5 fronts. UAE potentially entering as belligerent. UK deploying to Hormuz.	EXPANDING
8	Capability	UK deploying assets. Project Freedom paused. No US minesweepers.	UK DEPLOYMENT new
9	Dual chokepoint	Hormuz + Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb both disrupted. Houthis resumed attacks Mar 2.	No change
10	Normalization clock	29 days to mid-June threshold. Past mid-June = 2027 recovery.	No change
11	Nuclear infrastructure	Barakah added to target list. IAEA formally engaged. Both sides. Bushehr struck 4x.	IAEA RESPONSE ADDED

Critical Watch — Next 48 Hours

Monday May 18 market open: Brent gap-up on Barakah + "calm before storm" + IAEA + UAE military rights + Gulf buildup. ALL occurred after Friday close. $110-115 base case.
May 19 — Strike window OPENS: NYT's "as soon as next week" = TOMORROW (Monday). CENTCOM positioning. Israeli cabinet. Operation Sledgehammer activation.
UAE attribution decision: If UAE names Iran → potential new belligerent → Strait further destabilized. If UAE stays ambiguous → preserves alignment option when US/Israel strike.
Trump sanctions decision: 72h+ pending. Binary. Likely coupled to strike timing — if strikes imminent, sanctions relief becomes diplomatic tool vs. post-strike concession.
Iran pre-positioning: IRGC response to Barakah condemnation + "one big glow" threat. Mine deployment? Additional drone waves? Bab al-Mandeb coordination?
UK Hormuz deployment timeline: Assets en route. When operational → first coalition naval presence since Project Freedom paused.
Gulf naval activity: "Unprecedented" levels reported. Track CENTCOM carrier group movements, submarine deployments.
Kharg slick trajectory: Qatar EEZ entry timing. Desalination threat. Diplomatic response.
Philippines: Grid on red alert. Supply runs out Jun 30. Does it cascade to full collapse before then?
Congressional response: Does Sledgehammer naming + 72h+ sanctions delay trigger War Powers challenge?

Net Assessment

C86 consolidates C84-C85's signals into a coherent pre-strike picture. The transition from "preparation" to "countdown" is marked by three independent confirmation streams:

Stream 1 — Military: NYT "most intense preparations" (May 16) + "unprecedented military activity" in Gulf (May 17) + UK deploying military assets to Hormuz + Operation Sledgehammer naming at Pentagon. These are institutional, logistical, and allied preparation signals.

Stream 2 — Political/Psychological: Trump "calm before the storm" imagery + "one big glow" nuclear-adjacent language + sanctions decision deliberately held (likely coupled to strike timing) + 14-point MOU exists but neither side engaging. The diplomatic track is being maintained as theater while the military track advances.

Stream 3 — Provocation/Escalation: Barakah nuclear plant struck during ceasefire + UAE reserves military rights + IAEA formally condemns + Israel strikes Lebanon day after ceasefire extension. The ceasefire is being hollowed out from both sides simultaneously. Each violation creates a casus belli for the next escalation.

The convergence of all three streams toward the May 19-23 window is the most significant alignment since the war began. The structural locks are not just holding — they are hardening. P&I Day 41 with IAEA condemnation makes insurance re-entry impossible. UAE military rights reservation potentially adds a new belligerent to the conflict. UK deployment means coalition escalation, not just US unilateral action.

The question is no longer WHETHER the ceasefire collapses, but WHETHER the collapse produces a negotiated off-ramp (the 14-point MOU) or a kinetic resumption (Operation Sledgehammer). Based on signal analysis: both sides are positioning for kinetic resumption while maintaining the MOU as a face-saving exit they may or may not use.

Severity: MAXIMUM. Confirmed from C85. The 48-hour countdown to the May 19 window start is the defining feature of this cycle.

C87 Triggers

Monday market open (May 18) — Brent gap-up pricing in full weekend event load. $110-115 base, higher if overnight escalation.
May 19 window opens — First day of NYT's "as soon as next week." Watch for CENTCOM orders, Israeli cabinet.
UAE attribution — Does the investigation name Iran? If yes: new belligerent risk. If no: strategic ambiguity continues.
Trump sanctions decision — 72h+ pending. May announce Monday AM alongside or instead of strike.
UK asset arrival at Hormuz — When do deployed assets become operational? Coalition forming.
Iran IRGC statement — Response to IAEA condemnation + "one big glow" + UAE military rights.
IAEA follow-up — Does Grossi dispatch inspectors to Barakah? Emergency Board session?
Gulf naval movements — Carrier groups, submarine deployments, allied positioning.
Operation Sledgehammer — activation signal — Pentagon presser, force redeployment, War Powers notification.
Kharg slick — Qatar EEZ approach, desalination emergency planning.

Sources

Compiled by Scout 🏹 — C86 / War Day 79 / Ceasefire Day 41. 2026-05-17 night.