Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-05-16 · Afternoon Cycle
War Day: 78 | Ceasefire Day: 40 | Cycle: C85
Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes timeout, full web sweep
Baseline: C84 / 2026-05-16 Morning
⚡ CRITICAL FLAGS THIS CYCLE
- 🔴 BRENT $111.04 — $110 THRESHOLD CROSSED — Fortune confirms $111.04 as of May 15 AM. Weekly gain +8.1%. March peak ($119–126) retest path now ACTIVE.
- 🔴 TRUMP: "MAKE A DEAL OR GET ANNIHILATED" — Fox News interview. "Not going to be much more patient." Most explicit annihilation ultimatum since war began. Claims Xi agreed Iran must reopen Hormuz.
- 🟡 INDIA-UAE DEFENCE PACTS SIGNED (May 15) — Modi visit: maritime security, cyber defence, Fujairah SPR storage for India, $5B UAE investment. Alliance hardening around Gulf security.
- 🟡 PENTAGON MILITARY-TO-MILITARY TRACK LAUNCHING MAY 29 — Second negotiation channel through military delegations. First structural pathway since Round 5 failure.
- ⚠️ KHARG OIL SLICK — QATAR EEZ ENTRY PROJECTED NOW — 80,000 bbl, 17 sq mi. 4-day drift to Qatar EEZ from May 6-8 detection = entry by ~May 10-12. Landfall Al Mirfa (UAE) in ~13 days from detection (~May 19-21).
- ⚠️ IRAN WAR COST: $29 BILLION — Pentagon official (CNN May 12). First confirmed total cost figure.
- ⚠️ ARAGHCHI: "IRAN WAS THE VICTOR IN THIS WAR" — Victory framing from FM = no concession posture.
1. Conflict Status
War Day 78 / Ceasefire Day 40 (Conflict began Feb 28, 2026; ceasefire April 7, 2026)
Operation Epic Fury — formally concluded May 5. Trump: Iran has "no navy, no air force — it's gone." Pentagon cost: $29 billion.
Ceasefire status: Extremely fragile, trending toward collapse. Trump's "annihilated" language is the most direct threat since war paused. Iran's FM claims victory. Structural deadlock: Iran demands Hormuz-first, nuclear-later sequencing; US demands nuclear dismantlement or freeze first.
Key developments this cycle (May 15-16):
- Trump (Fox News/Hannity): "Make a deal or they get annihilated." "Not going to be much more patient." Claims Xi agreed Iran must reopen Hormuz.
- Khamenei rejected Trump's direct nuclear proposal (May 16 AM) — "excessive and outrageous."
- Araghchi (WaPo, May 15): "We cannot trust the Americans at all." Called trust deficit "the main obstacle."
- Araghchi: "Iran was the victor in this war." Victory framing = no capitulation path.
- Pentagon launching military-to-military track starting May 29 — first structural pathway since Round 5 failure.
- Iran-EU Istanbul talks (May 16): Araghchi warned UN sanctions reimposition = "irreversible."
Cumulative casualties:
| Actor | Killed | Wounded/Displaced |
|---|---|---|
| Iran (civilian + military) | 3,636+ | 26,500+ wounded; 3.2M+ displaced |
| Lebanon | 2,896+ | 1.2M displaced |
| US military | 13+ KIA | 381+ wounded |
| Israel | 26+ | 7,791+ wounded |
| Gulf states (KW/UAE) | 10+ | 300+ |
US war cost: $29 billion (Pentagon, May 12)
2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status
| Parameter | Current Status | Δ vs C84 |
|---|---|---|
| Transits/day | ~9–12 confirmed; majority dark | STALE |
| % pre-war baseline | ~5–8% | STALE |
| IRGC posture | Selective enforcement + Ghadir subs deployed | CONFIRMED |
| China exception (PGSA) | OPERATIONAL — permit system; Trump claims Xi agreed to reopen | WATCH |
| India exception | OPERATIONAL (Operation Sankalp) — Modi-UAE pacts strengthen | UPGRADED |
| Ships anchored Gulf | 1,550–1,600 | STALE |
| Seafarers trapped | ~22,500 | STALE |
| Mine threat | CRITICAL — coalition MCM advancing but no US minesweepers | CONFIRMED |
| Subsurface threat | Ghadir-class mini-subs deployed | CONFIRMED |
| P&I insurance | Absent Day 40 — all major clubs withdrawn | CONFIRMED |
| UKMTO incidents (since Feb 28) | 41+ | STALE |
| Project Freedom | PAUSED since May 6 | CONFIRMED |
| French escort mission | Aspides framework — pledged, not deployed | STALE |
| Kharg oil slick | 80,000 bbl / 17 sq mi — Qatar EEZ entry PROJECTED NOW | UPGRADED |
| Iran PGSA map | IRGC redefining strait as "vast operational area" | CONFIRMED |
| US blockade of Iran | 67 ships redirected, 4 disabled since commencement | CONFIRMED |
3. Tanker Attacks Log
Running total: 80+ commercial incidents, 41+ UKMTO reports since Feb 28
| Date | Vessel | Flag | Location | Type | Damage | Casualties | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | Barakah (ADNOC) | UAE | Near Fujairah | 2 drones | Struck empty | 0 | historical |
| May 4 | CMA CGM San Antonio | — | Hormuz | Cruise missile | Struck | 8 injured | historical |
| May 4 | HMM Namu | S. Korea | Off UAE (anchor) | Sea drone | Fire | — | historical |
| May 8 | JIN LI | — | Iranian waters | IRGC seizure | Seized (own shadow fleet vessel) | — | CONFIRMED |
| May 13 | Haji Ali | India | Gulf | — | SUNK | 14 rescued (Oman CG) | CONFIRMED |
| May 14 | [unnamed] | — | 38nm NE Fujairah (anchor) | IRGC seizure | Seized, AIS dark, taken to Iran | — | CONFIRMED |
| May 15+ | Adnoc Barakah | UAE | Off Oman (anchor) | Drone (May 4) | Leaking bunker fuel | — | ongoing |
No new confirmed attacks reported May 16. Weekend reduces reporting cadence.
4. Oil Prices
| Benchmark | May 16 (Fri close) | C84 (AM) | Pre-war | Peak (Mar 8) | Weekly Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent spot | $111.04 | $109+ | ~$65 | $119–126 | +8.1% |
| WTI | ~$106 | ~$106 | ~$62 | ~$117 | +11% |
| VLCC day rate | $423K/day (ATH benchmark) | same | ~$30K | $770K spot | STALE |
| US gasoline | ~$4.63/gal | ~$4.63 | — | — | STALE |
| YoY Brent | +70%+ | +63%+ | — | — | UPGRADED |
Key price drivers: Trump "annihilated" ultimatum driving war premium; IEA undersupply through October warning; Strait remains closed; Khamenei rejection; Saudi at 1990 production lows; weekly gain largest since crisis began.
CNBC confirms: "Oil prices jump after Trump says he is losing patience with Iran" (May 15). Trump rhetoric DIRECTLY pricing into crude.
Cumulative supply loss: ~1 billion bbl+. Weekly: ~100M bbl.
Market note: May 16 is Saturday — markets closed. Friday May 15 close is the reference price.
5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves
| Country | Release | Reserve Level | Days Supply | Emergency Action | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA (coordinated) | 400M bbl total (record) | — | — | Largest release in history | CONFIRMED |
| United States | 172M bbl (of 400M total) | ~409M bbl (Apr 10) | — | ~50% exported | CONFIRMED |
| Japan | 80M bbl (from Mar 16) | ~263M govt-held | ~150 days | ¥300B/month burn rate | CONFIRMED |
| South Korea | Participating | ~79M bbl (strategic) | "Over 1 year" (govt claim) | Naphtha export limits | CONFIRMED |
| China | Not releasing (IEA non-member) | 1.4B bbl (world's largest) | ~108 days | Restricting fuel exports | CONFIRMED |
| India | Participating | 21.4M bbl (ISPRL) | ~60 days | NEW: Fujairah SPR storage pact with UAE | NEW |
SPR runway math: Unchanged — 400M IEA bbl ÷ ~8.5 mb/d = ~47 days. Day 78. SPR runway EXHAUSTED vs disruption duration. Market running on production diversification + drawdown, not SPR cover.
6. Bypass Infrastructure
| Route | Pipe Capacity | Utilization | Spare | Status | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi E-W Pipeline (Petroline) | 7 mb/d | 100% pipe / 3-4 Yanbu cap | 0 | AT CAPACITY | CONFIRMED |
| UAE ADCOP pipeline | 1.5 mb/d (1.8 surge) | 71% | 440k bpd | OPERATIONAL | CONFIRMED |
| Iraq Kirkuk–Ceyhan (north) | 0.25 mb/d | Partial | low | LIMITED | CONFIRMED |
| Iraq south (Basra) | ~3 mb/d pre-war | ~0 | — | OFFLINE | CONFIRMED |
| UAE West-East Pipeline | ~3–3.6 mb/d (planned) | 0% | — | 2027 fast-track | CONFIRMED |
| Total bypass (current) | ~5.0 mb/d effective | ||||
| Pre-war Hormuz volume | ~20 mb/d | ||||
| GAP | ~14–15 mb/d UNBRIDGEABLE |
Yanbu binding constraint confirmed: ENR reporting pipeline throughput far exceeds port export capacity. Oil backing up at coast. Infrastructure was "sized for a short disruption — this is not that."
7. Maritime Insurance & Shipping
| Parameter | Current | C84 Δ |
|---|---|---|
| P&I club coverage | ALL WITHDRAWN — Day 40 | CONFIRMED (no re-entry) |
| War risk premium | 3–8% hull value per transit | CONFIRMED |
| VLCC transit cost | $3–8M (pre-crisis: ~$200K) | CONFIRMED |
| VLCC benchmark day rate | $423,736/day (LSEG ATH) | CONFIRMED |
| VLCC spot peak | $770K/day | CONFIRMED |
| DFC backstop facility | $40B revolving (Chubb lead) | CONFIRMED |
| Lloyd's JWC zone | Full Gulf + Oman | CONFIRMED |
| Carrier suspensions | Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd | CONFIRMED |
| April transit total | 191 vessels (vs 3,000/month pre-war) | STALE |
| Mine clearance timeline | Up to 6 months post-conflict | CONFIRMED |
| Khaleej Times assessment | Reopening alone won't lower shipping costs | CONFIRMED |
8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions
Scale: ~1,400+ shadow fleet vessels (~25% global tanker fleet).
Key developments:
- JIN LI seizure (May 8): IRGC seized a vessel that previously transported 6M+ barrels of Iranian oil. Listed on UANI Ghost Armada. IRGC seizing own shadow fleet = command breakdown or internal enforcement.
- US blockade stats: 67 commercial ships redirected, 4 disabled to prevent entry/exit from Iranian ports.
- 11 Iran-flagged tankers + 2 Ghost Armada vessels observed near Chabahar (satellite, mid-May) — concentrated, not dispersed.
- Trump considering China sanctions lift — decision still "over next few days" (May 15 AF1). Would give Iran economic off-ramp but at cost of enforcement credibility.
- China blocking statute active — Commerce Ministry ordered firms to defy US sanctions.
9. Country Response Matrix
| Country | Posture | Key Actions | Risk Level | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Belligerent (ceasefire) | "Annihilated" ultimatum; Pentagon mil-mil track May 29; $29B cost | — | UPGRADED |
| Israel | Belligerent | Lebanon ceasefire extended; nuclear facility strikes earlier | — | CONFIRMED |
| Iran | Defender (Hormuz leverage) | Khamenei rejection; Araghchi "victor"; "cannot trust Americans"; 5 conditions | — | UPGRADED |
| China | Non-belligerent; Iran buyer | Trump claims Xi agreed reopen; blocking statute active; PGSA transits | HIGH | WATCH |
| Saudi Arabia | Gulf state; US ally | E-W at capacity; 1990 production lows | HIGH | CONFIRMED |
| UAE | Gulf state; US ally | India defence pacts; $5B investment; Fujairah SPR; West-East Pipeline | HIGH | UPGRADED |
| India | Major importer | Modi-UAE pacts: maritime security, Fujairah SPR, cyber defence | CRITICAL | UPGRADED |
| Japan | Major importer | 80M bbl release; ¥300B/month burn rate | HIGH | STALE |
| Philippines | SE Asia most exposed | June 30 supply deadline — 44 days remaining | CRITICAL | WATCH |
| Pakistan | Mediator | 4-day workweek; LNG exposure; mil-mil track mediation | HIGH | CONFIRMED |
| Lebanon | Active front | Ceasefire EXTENDED 45 days (May 15) | REDUCED | CONFIRMED |
| Qatar | LNG supplier | Ras Laffan 17% loss; 5-yr repair; Kharg slick entering EEZ | CRITICAL | WATCH |
10. Policy & Regulatory Actions
| Date | Actor | Action | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16 | Khamenei | Rejected Trump nuclear proposal — "excessive, outrageous" | C84 |
| May 16 | Iran (Araghchi) | EU–Iran Istanbul talks; warned UN sanctions = "irreversible" | C84 |
| May 15-16 | Trump (Fox/Hannity) | "Make a deal or get annihilated." "Not much more patient." | NEW |
| May 15 | Trump | Claims Xi agreed Iran must reopen Hormuz | NEW |
| May 15 | India-UAE | Defence pacts: maritime security, Fujairah SPR, $5B investment | NEW |
| May 15-16 | Israel + Lebanon | Ceasefire extended 45 days; June 2-3 next talks | CONFIRMED |
| May 15 | Pentagon | Military-to-military track launching May 29 | NEW |
| May 15 | Araghchi (WaPo) | "Cannot trust the Americans at all" — main obstacle | NEW |
| May 15 | Araghchi | "Iran was the victor in this war" | NEW |
| May 15 | Trump (AF1) | China sanctions decision "over next few days" | PENDING |
| May 12 | Pentagon | War cost: $29 billion | CONFIRMED |
| May 6 | Trump | Project Freedom PAUSED | STALE |
| Apr 7 | US + Iran | Ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated) | BASELINE |
| Mar 19 | Trump | South Pars deterrence ultimatum | HOLDING |
11. Key Metrics Dashboard
| Metric | Value | Trend | Signal | C85 Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conflict day | 78 | → | War Day 78 | — |
| Ceasefire day | 40 | → | Extremely fragile → collapse watch | — |
| Iran civilian dead | 3,636+ | → | — | STALE |
| US KIA/wounded | 13 / 381+ | → | — | STALE |
| US war cost | $29 billion | ↑ | Pentagon confirmed | NEW |
| Strait transits/day | ~9–12 | → | ~5–8% of pre-war | STALE |
| Brent crude | $111.04 | ↑↑ | $110 THRESHOLD CROSSED | +$2+ vs C84 |
| WTI | ~$106 | ↑↑ | +11% weekly | CONFIRMED |
| VLCC benchmark | $423K/day | → | ATH | STALE |
| War risk premium | 3–8% hull value | → | $3–8M/VLCC | STALE |
| Vessels attacked | 80+ | → | Running log | STALE |
| Seafarers trapped | ~22,500 | → | Day 40 | STALE |
| IEA SPR release | 400M bbl | → | Runway exhausted | STALE |
| India SPR | 21.4M bbl + Fujairah pact | → | Diversifying geography | NEW |
| Iraq oil exports | ~250K bpd (north only) | → | South offline | STALE |
| Total bypass capacity | ~5.0 mb/d effective | → | — | STALE |
| Supply GAP | ~14–15 mb/d | → | UNBRIDGEABLE | STALE |
| India safe passage | OPERATIONAL — strengthening (Modi pacts) | ↑ | Alliance consolidation | UPGRADED |
| Mine threat | CRITICAL | → | No minesweepers in theater | CONFIRMED |
| IRGC posture | HARDENED | → | Khamenei rejection; "victor" framing | CONFIRMED |
| P&I insurance | ABSENT Day 40 | → | No re-entry signal | CONFIRMED |
| Qatar LNG | Force majeure + 17% loss + Kharg slick in EEZ | ↑ | Compounding damage | UPGRADED |
| Dual chokepoint | ACTIVE | → | Hormuz + Red Sea | CONFIRMED |
| Lebanon front | Ceasefire extended 45 days | ↓ | June 2-3 talks | CONFIRMED |
| Trump patience | EXHAUSTING | ↑↑ | "Annihilated" ultimatum | NEW |
| Hajj constraint | 9 days to May 25 | ↓ | Kinetic pause pressure | C84 |
| Mid-June clock | 31 days | ↓ | 2027 normalization if missed | C84 |
| Philippines deadline | 44 days (June 30) | ↓ | — | -1 |
| Kharg slick | IN QATAR EEZ (projected) | ↑ | UNCLOS trigger | UPGRADED |
| Mil-mil track | May 29 launch | NEW | First new pathway since Round 5 | NEW |
12. Convergence Assessment
What Changed This Cycle (C85 vs C84)
- Brent $111.04 — $110 THRESHOLD CROSSED [UPGRADED]. Fortune confirms $111.04 as of May 15 AM. CNBC: "Oil prices jump after Trump says he is losing patience with Iran." Trump rhetoric now DIRECTLY pricing into crude. March peak ($119-126) only $8-15 away. This is no longer a watch — it's an active escalation in price lock.
- Trump "annihilated" ultimatum [NEW — CRITICAL ESCALATION SIGNAL]. Fox News interview: "Make a deal or they get annihilated." "Not going to be much more patient." Claims Iran has "no navy, no air force — it's gone." This is the most explicit threat since Operation Epic Fury ended. Combined with Khamenei's same-day rejection = collision course unless May 29 mil-mil track provides offramp.
- India-UAE defence pacts [NEW]. Modi visit (May 15): maritime security, cyber defence, military collaboration, Fujairah SPR storage for India, $5B UAE investment. This represents alliance consolidation around bypass infrastructure defense. India is hedging between safe passage through IRGC-controlled corridor AND building alternative through UAE bilateral. Strategic diversification.
- Pentagon military-to-military track May 29 [NEW]. First structural negotiation pathway since Round 5 failure. Military delegations from both countries. This could be the thread that prevents collapse — or it could be the last attempt before resumption. 13 days until launch.
- Araghchi "victory" framing [NEW — signals no capitulation path]. "Iran was the victor in this war." When a belligerent publicly frames as victory DURING a ceasefire, concession space collapses. Combined with "cannot trust the Americans at all" = Iran is building narrative for prolonged standoff, not resolution.
- Kharg slick — Qatar EEZ entry now [UPGRADED from WATCH]. 80,000 bbl detected May 6-8. Drift projection: Qatar EEZ within 4 days = entry by ~May 10-12. As of May 16 the slick has likely been in Qatari waters for 4-6 days. UAE landfall (Al Mirfa) projected ~May 19-21. UNCLOS dispute trigger. Environmental damage to coral reefs, mangroves within 2 weeks of detection. Qatar already under force majeure + 17% LNG capacity loss — slick compounds damage.
- Trump claims Xi agreed Iran must reopen Hormuz [UNCONFIRMED]. China FM readout from Trump-Xi summit was silent on Iran. PGSA permit system still operational (Chinese vessels transiting). Blocking statute still active. If true = massive forcing function. If performative = diplomatic weakness signal. Flag as UNCONFIRMED.
Structural Conditions — 11 Locks
Condition 1 — Price Lock [TIGHTENING — $110 BREACHED]
Brent $111.04. WTI ~$106. $110 threshold crossed. March peak ($119-126) retest within range. Trump rhetoric directly driving prices (CNBC confirmed). IEA: undersupplied through October. No price ceiling mechanism beyond SPR (exhausted). Next threshold: $115 (halfway to peak), then $119-126 retest.
Condition 2 — Supply Lock [HOLDING — UNBRIDGEABLE]
~1 billion bbl+ cumulative loss. 14-15 mb/d gap. Bypass ceiling 5 mb/d. Saudi at 1990 lows. ENR: bypass infrastructure "was sized for a short disruption — this is not that." No structural change. GAP permanent until strait reopens.
Condition 3 — Insurance Lock [HOLDING]
P&I absence Day 40. Khaleej Times: "Strait reopening won't mean cheaper shipping." Even post-conflict, mine clearance = 6 months, insurer confidence = months more. Insurance lock extends BEYOND any ceasefire. Structural.
Condition 4 — Labor Lock [HOLDING]
22,500 trapped. Haji Ali sunk. Anchor seizures. No change.
Condition 5 — Duration Lock [TIGHTENING]
Araghchi: "Iran was the victor." "Cannot trust Americans." Khamenei rejection. Trump: "not much more patient." Both sides tightening rhetoric, narrowing exit paths. Pentagon mil-mil track (May 29) = last structural offramp before potential resumption. 13 days.
Condition 6 — Nuclear Lock [HOLDING — TIGHTENED]
Araghchi: nuclear issue at "deadlock" — postponed to later stages. Trump offered 20-year freeze. Khamenei rejected same day. 229 GOP: zero-enrichment letter. HEU: ~970 lbs at 60%. Gap structurally wider. No bridge.
Condition 7 — Geographic Lock [PARTIALLY LOOSENING + NEW DIMENSION]
Lebanon ceasefire extended 45 days — one front reduced. BUT: India-UAE pacts add new alliance geography. Kharg slick in Qatar EEZ = environmental dimension added to geographic lock. Not just kinetic anymore — ecological contamination crossing sovereign boundaries.
Condition 8 — Capability Lock [HOLDING]
Project Freedom paused. No minesweepers. UK HMS Dragon en route. 6 months post-conflict for mine clearance. Alliance consolidation (India-UAE) strengthens long-term capability but NOT current operational capacity.
Condition 9 — Dual Chokepoint Lock [HOLDING]
Both Hormuz + Red Sea disrupted. Houthis resumed March 2. Qatar LNG force majeure. Cape rerouting structural.
Condition 10 — Leadership Lock [TIGHTENING]
Both leaders escalating: Trump ("annihilated"), Khamenei (rejection), Araghchi ("victor", "cannot trust"). Mojtaba Khamenei invisible but issuing "decisive directives." Neither leader has domestic political space to concede. May 29 mil-mil track bypasses leadership-level deadlock — question is whether military channels can produce what political channels cannot.
Condition 11 — Energy Infrastructure Lock [HOLDING]
$60B total infrastructure damage (OilPrice). Gulf repair bill: $25B. Ras Laffan: 3-5 year repair, turbine backlog 2-4 years. South Pars: 12% Iran gas production. These outlast any ceasefire. Structural regardless of political resolution.
Critical Watch
- $115 Brent — Halfway to March peak. One more Trump escalation or Round 6 failure could push there within days.
- May 29 mil-mil track — 13 days. First new pathway. If it collapses or never convenes, resumption probability spikes.
- Kharg slick UAE landfall — Projected May 19-21 (Al Mirfa). Environmental + UNCLOS + diplomatic incident stack.
- Trump China sanctions decision — Still "next few days." Structural forcing function for triangle.
- Hajj window (May 25) — 9 days. De-facto kinetic pause pressure.
- Philippines June 30 — 44 days. Supply cliff.
- Trump patience meter — "Not much more patient" = days/weeks, not months. Resumption window: post-Hajj (early June)?
Net Assessment (C85)
The crisis entered a new phase this cycle. Brent crossing $110 while Trump simultaneously issues an annihilation ultimatum creates a feedback loop: Trump's rhetoric drives oil prices higher, which increases domestic political pressure on Trump, which drives more aggressive rhetoric. This spiral has no natural brake.
The May 29 military-to-military track is the single most important structural development since Round 5 failure. It bypasses the leadership-level deadlock (Khamenei won't speak to Trump; Araghchi says no trust) and creates a professional channel that could produce face-saving frameworks both leaders could accept. But 13 days is a long time in this crisis.
India-UAE defence pacts represent something the market hasn't priced: the post-crisis architecture is being built IN REAL TIME. India storing SPR in Fujairah, maritime security cooperation, $5B investment — this is alliance hardening that makes Fujairah the de-facto Indian Ocean energy hub, reducing long-term dependence on Hormuz transit. The strategic reorientation is already happening regardless of whether the strait reopens.
The Kharg slick entering Qatar EEZ adds a new dimension: ecological sovereignty violation. Qatar, already suffering 17% LNG capacity loss and force majeure, now faces environmental contamination from the conflict. This could trigger UNCLOS proceedings and further isolate Iran diplomatically — or it could be attributed to US blockade operations (Iran's claim: tanker dump, not their leak).
Lock count: 9 holding, 2 tightening (Price, Duration/Leadership). 1 partially loosening (Geographic — Lebanon only). Net trajectory: TIGHTENING. The crisis is not resolving. It is compressing toward either a deal under duress or a resumption of hostilities.