Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-05-13 · Morning Cycle

CRITICAL: TRUMP IN BEIJING — 48-HOUR DECISION WINDOW OPEN

Trump has arrived in Beijing for a state visit running May 13-15. This is the first US presidential visit to China since 2017. Bilateral meetings with Xi, state banquet, and working lunch planned across two days. Iran/Hormuz is central agenda alongside trade and Taiwan. China sources ~60% of crude through Hormuz. Trump invited Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and an array of US business leaders. The 48-hour window identified in C74 is now ACTIVE. Combat resumption is functionally paused during the state visit. Post-trip decision point: May 15-16.

CRITICAL: TRUMP — "I DON'T THINK ABOUT AMERICANS' FINANCIAL SITUATION"

As Trump departed for Beijing, he told reporters: "I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon." This statement lands against: CPI 3.8%, gas $4.50/gal (+44% YoY), 65% disapprove economy handling, 76% disapprove cost of living (ABC/WaPo/Ipsos). CNN analysis framed it as "gilded indifference." The domestic political feedback loop from C74 (oil → inflation → consumer pressure → political pressure) is now complicated by Trump publicly detaching from the consumer pain signal.

CRITICAL: 40-NATION MEETING OUTCOME — MULTINATIONAL MILITARY MISSION DECLARED

The UK/France-co-chaired defense ministers meeting (40+ countries) concluded May 12-13 with concrete outcomes:

• Mission declared: UK/France-led Multinational Military Mission — "purely defensive," aimed at restoring commercial shipping through Hormuz "when conditions allow"
• Australia: Contributing E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft. Defense Minister Marles: "We want to see this conflict end, the Strait of Hormuz open and freedom of navigation resume"
• UK: HMS Dragon en route (confirmed from C74)
• France: "A dozen ships" + CDG carrier group + Aspides
• Framing: Complements "ongoing diplomatic engagement and de-escalation efforts" — this is POST-CEASEFIRE infrastructure, not immediate forced reopening
• Gap: No minesweeping capability announced. No US direct participation framework. "When conditions allow" = not yet

Top-line movers (C74→C75 delta — 7 items)

1. TRUMP IN BEIJING — STATE VISIT BEGINS TODAY. 48-hour window now ACTIVE. Iran/Hormuz central agenda. Xi holds leverage (rare earths, Iran channels). Combat resumption paused during visit. WINDOW OPEN.

1. BRENT PULLED BACK TO $107.05 (−0.67%). Correcting from C74's $110.43 intraday surge. EIA forecasts ~$106/b May-June. Still +62% YoY. WTI settled at $102.18 on May 12. PARTIAL CORRECTION — STILL ELEVATED.

1. TRUMP: "I DON'T THINK ABOUT AMERICANS' FINANCIAL SITUATION." 76% disapprove cost of living. 65% disapprove economy. Statement made departing for Beijing. NEW — POLITICAL SIGNAL: NUCLEAR > ECONOMIC IN TRUMP'S CALCULUS.

1. 40-NATION MISSION DECLARED. UK/France-led, "strictly defensive," "when conditions allow." Australia contributes E-7A Wedgetail. No minesweeping. Post-ceasefire framing. NEW — OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK EXISTS BUT NOT YET DEPLOYED.

1. LEBANON TALKS MAY 14-15 CONFIRMED. Simon Karam (Lebanon) vs Ron Dermer (Israel) delegations. Washington venue. Trump in Beijing during talks. Hezbollah opposes direct negotiations. 13 killed in Lebanon May 12 despite ceasefire. CONFIRMED — SCHEDULING COLLISION ACTIVE.

1. EIA: GLOBAL INVENTORIES TO FALL 8.5M B/D IN Q2. Brent forecast ~$106/b May-June. Aramco CEO Nasser: market losing ~100M bbl/week. NEW — INSTITUTIONAL FORECAST CONFIRMS STRUCTURAL DEFICIT.

1. IEA: ~20% OF STRATEGIC RESERVES RELEASED. Member nations have deployed approximately one-fifth of available reserves to date. NEW — DEPLETION BENCHMARK.

1. Conflict Status — DAY 75 / CEASEFIRE DAY 36

2. Strait Operational Status — TRANSIT 18/DAY (MAY 11); MMM DECLARED BUT NOT DEPLOYED

3. Tanker Attacks Log — RUNNING TOTAL

4. Oil Prices — BRENT $107.05 (−0.67%); WTI $102.18; PARTIAL CORRECTION FROM C74 SURGE

5. SPR — 20% OF GLOBAL RESERVES DEPLOYED; 80M BBL US LOANS + 53.3M NEW

6. Bypass Infrastructure — YANBU 3.66-4 MMbpd; ADCOP 71%; UNCHANGED

7. Maritime Insurance — P&I DAY 75+; PREMIUMS EDGING TO 5% OF HULL VALUE

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

9. Country Response Matrix — C75 UPDATE

10. Policy Log (C75 additions — May 13 morning)

• May 13 — Trump arrives in Beijing for state visit (May 13-15). First US presidential China visit since 2017. Musk, Cook accompanying. Iran/Hormuz, trade, Taiwan on agenda. (The Week / Irish Times / WaPo / BusinessToday)
• May 13 — Trump: "I don't think about Americans' financial situation." Statement made departing White House. "The only thing that matters: they can't have a nuclear weapon." (ABC News / CNN / WaPo / Daily Caller)
• May 13 — ABC/WaPo/Ipsos poll: 65% disapprove economy; 76% disapprove cost of living. Gas up >$1.50 since war began. (ABC News)
• May 12-13 — 40-nation meeting concluded: UK/France-led MMM declared. "Strictly defensive"; operational "when conditions allow." Australia contributing E-7A Wedgetail. (Australia Defence Minister / Xinhua / SBS)
• May 13 — Brent fell to $107.05 (−0.67%). Partial correction from C74's $110.43 intraday. EIA: inventories to fall 8.5M b/d Q2; Brent ~$106/b May-June. (Trading Economics / EIA)
• May 13 — WaPo: "Iran war fuels sharpest inflation spike in nearly three years at 3.8%." Framing the war-inflation nexus for domestic audience. (Washington Post)
• May 13 — CNN analysis: "Trump's gilded indifference ignores America's growing economic pain." (CNN)
• May 13 — IEA: member nations have released ~20% of available strategic reserves. (IEA via search data)
• May 13 — Aramco CEO Nasser: market losing ~100M bbl/week; prolonged disruptions → 2027 normalization. (Trading Economics / earlier Aramco statements)
• May 13 — Israel-Lebanon talks confirmed May 14-15 Washington. Karam (Lebanon) / Dermer (Israel). Hezbollah opposes. 13 killed in Lebanon May 12 despite ceasefire. (New Arab / Al Jazeera / Wikipedia)
• May 13 — New US sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales to China announced. (MS.NOW/NBC)
• May 13 — Insurance premiums edging to 5% of hull value. Al Jazeera: $5M for $100M hull. "Insurers demand months of stability before restoring normal cover." (Al Jazeera / Khaleej Times)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard — C75

12. Convergence Assessment

What Changed This Cycle (C74→C75)

1. Trump landed in Beijing. The 48-hour window identified in C74 is now active. The state visit runs May 13-15, during which combat resumption is functionally impossible. The key bilateral meetings are May 14 — the same day as the Lebanon talks in Washington. Trump brought Musk and Cook, signaling this is as much a trade visit as a geopolitical one. China sources ~60% of crude through Hormuz, making Xi's motivation structural, not just diplomatic. The question from C74 remains: does Xi offer something tangible on Iran (pressure for reopening, nuclear concessions framework) in exchange for trade/Taiwan concessions, or is this atmospherics only?

1. Trump's "I don't think about Americans' financial situation" statement is the most politically significant development of C75. It explicitly decouples his Iran decision calculus from the domestic economic pain that C74 identified as the closed feedback loop (oil → CPI 3.8% → consumer burden → political pressure). By publicly stating nuclear considerations override economic ones, Trump is: (a) signaling to Xi that economic leverage (oil price, rare earths) will not force concessions on nuclear terms; (b) signaling to Iran that the pain at the pump will not drive him to accept a bad deal; (c) creating massive domestic political vulnerability — 76% disapprove his cost of living handling, and he just told them he doesn't care. The statement is either genuine strategic communication or a negotiating posture. Either way, it restructures the probability space: if Trump genuinely prioritizes nuclear over economics, Path B (full kinetic, to force nuclear compliance) becomes more likely. If it's posturing for Xi, it's a high-stakes bluff that burns domestic capital.

1. The 40-nation meeting produced a framework but not a deployment. The UK/France-led Multinational Military Mission is "strictly defensive" and operational "when conditions allow" — meaning it awaits a political condition (ceasefire solidification, deal framework) before deploying. Australia's E-7A Wedgetail is the first named national contribution beyond UK and France. The MMM is significant as institutional architecture: it means if a deal produces "conditions" for reopening, there is already a command structure, a UK/France co-leadership, and 40+ nations committed to participation. But it does nothing for the immediate insurance lock, P&I absence, or transit numbers. It is infrastructure for a future that hasn't arrived yet.

1. Brent's pullback to $107.05 (−0.67%) is a partial correction from C74's $110.43 surge, not a trend reversal. The EIA forecasts Brent at ~$106/b through May-June with global inventories falling 8.5 million b/d in Q2 — confirming the structural deficit. Aramco's Nasser says the market is losing ~100M barrels per week. The correction may reflect: (a) profit-taking after the $110 intraday spike, (b) faint hope that Trump-Xi produces something, or (c) market digestion of the surge. The $106 EIA floor suggests limited downside without a diplomatic breakthrough.

1. Strait transit data shows a possible uptick: 18 vessels on May 11 vs 5-6 on May 3-4. This needs verification over multiple days before upgrading. It could reflect: (a) PGSA (Iran's yuan-based safe passage) processing more ships, (b) residual Project Freedom corridor, or (c) statistical noise. Even at 18/day, this is ~13% of the pre-war 138/day average — still deeply disrupted.

1. Insurance premiums are being cited at the higher end of the range. Al Jazeera notes premiums "edging up to 5% of hull value" — $5M for a $100M hull. This is double the 1-2.5% "successful transit" range from earlier cycles. The 40-nation MMM declaration has zero near-term impact on insurance — insurers require months of sustained stability, not defense-minister communiques.

Structural Conditions — 11 Locks

Condition 1 — Price Lock — BRENT $107.05 (−0.67% CORRECTION); WTI $102.18. EIA: $106/B MAY-JUNE; INVENTORIES −8.5M B/D Q2. The partial correction from C74's $110 surge does not alter the structural picture. EIA's institutional forecast confirms Brent stays above $100 through at least June. Aramco: 100M bbl/week being lost. The price lock is eased fractionally by the pullback but reinforced by the EIA deficit forecast. Lock status: CONFIRMED — CORRECTION WITHIN STRUCTURAL ELEVATION; EIA FLOOR ~$106.

Condition 2 — Supply Lock — 14 MB/D OFFLINE; BYPASS ~5.5-6.2 MB/D; NET GAP 6-7 MB/D; EIA: 8.5M B/D Q2 DRAW. IEA confirms 20% of strategic reserves deployed. At this rate, reserve exhaustion becomes a mid-2026 concern. Aramco's 2027 normalization and mid-June decision point = 4 weeks. Lock status: CONFIRMED — EIA INSTITUTIONAL CONFIRMATION OF STRUCTURAL DEFICIT.

Condition 3 — Insurance Lock — P&I DAY 75+. PREMIUMS EDGING TO 5% OF HULL. MMM DECLARED BUT NOT DEPLOYED. The 40-nation MMM creates a framework for eventual reopening support but changes nothing now. Insurers require months of stability. Even reopening won't normalize costs (Khaleej Times). Lock status: CONFIRMED — MMM IS FUTURE INFRASTRUCTURE, NOT PRESENT RELIEF.

Condition 4 — Labor Lock — 22,500 SEAFARERS TRAPPED. FLEET ATTRITION ONGOING. Day 75. Lock status: CONFIRMED.

Condition 5 — Duration Lock — TRUMP IN BEIJING. 48-HOUR PAUSE. POST-TRIP DECISION MAY 15-16. The duration lock now has its clearest timing structure: Xi bilateral May 14, Lebanon talks May 14-15, Trump returns ~May 15-16. If Beijing produces a framework, duration lock may begin loosening. If not, the post-trip window is the earliest combat resumption decision point. Trump's "I don't think about financial situation" suggests he won't be hurried by economic pain into accepting suboptimal terms — extending the timeline. Lock status: TIGHTENING IF NO BREAKTHROUGH; COULD LOOSEN IF XI DELIVERS.

Condition 6 — Nuclear Lock — TRUMP: "THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS — THEY CAN'T HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON." Nuclear is now explicitly Trump's stated top priority over economics. Israel "concerned Trump may cut deal before addressing key issues" — but Trump's statement suggests the opposite: he's willing to endure economic pain to prevent nuclear capability. This aligns Path B (kinetic destruction of nuclear infrastructure) more closely with Trump's stated calculus. Lock status: ELEVATED — TRUMP EXPLICITLY PRIORITIZES NUCLEAR; ISRAEL FEARS DEAL, TRUMP FEARS NO-DEAL-ON-NUCLEAR.

Condition 7 — Geographic Lock — 4 FRONTS + BEIJING SUMMIT + WASHINGTON LEBANON TALKS + MMM. Diplomatic geography now spans: Trump in Beijing, Karam/Dermer in Washington, UK/France MMM coordination, IRGC in the Gulf, Hezbollah in Lebanon (13 killed despite ceasefire). Lock status: CONFIRMED — MAXIMUM DIPLOMATIC DISPERSION.

Condition 8 — Capability Lock — MMM DECLARED: UK/FRANCE-LED, AUSTRALIA E-7A, 40+ NATIONS. BUT "WHEN CONDITIONS ALLOW." The capability lock is partially loosening on paper — there is now a declared multinational framework with named contributors. But no minesweeping, no deployment date, no ROE for opposed transit. Lock status: PARTIALLY LOOSENING — FRAMEWORK EXISTS; DEPLOYMENT CONDITIONAL.

Condition 9 — Dual Chokepoint Lock — HORMUZ + RED SEA BOTH DISRUPTED. No change. Houthis resumed after Feb 28. Red Sea at 49% pre-crisis capacity. Lock status: CONFIRMED.

Condition 10 — Leadership Lock — TRUMP IN BEIJING; GHALIBAF COUNTER-ESCALATING; XI HOSTING. NETANYAHU ANXIOUS. The trilateral dimension from C74 is now active, not projected. Israel's concern about Trump cutting a deal before "key issues" adds a fourth actor's anxiety to the leadership dynamics. Lock status: ACTIVE TRILATERAL + ISRAEL FOURTH-PARTY ANXIETY.

Condition 11 — Energy Infrastructure Lock — RAS LAFFAN 17% CAPACITY LOSS, 3-5YR REPAIR; SOUTH PARS DUAL STRIKE; BUSHEHR. No new strikes. Lock status: CONFIRMED — ENGINEERING-BOUND.

Critical Watch (C76 triggers)

1. Trump-Xi bilateral (May 14). Does Xi offer tangible Iran pressure? Trade/Taiwan concessions? Rare earth deal? Or atmospherics only?
2. Lebanon talks (May 14-15). Karam/Dermer. Does it produce withdrawal framework? Or collapse (Hezbollah opposes)?
3. Post-Trump statement fallout. "I don't think about Americans' financial situation" — domestic political reaction. Congressional response? Polling movement?
4. Brent direction. Does $107 hold as floor (EIA $106 forecast) or does Trump-Xi optimism push below? Or does stalled talks push back toward $110+?
5. Transit data. Does 18/day (May 11) hold, or was it anomalous? Next data point critical for Strait operational assessment.
6. MMM deployment timeline. 40-nation meeting declared framework — when does "conditions allow" get defined? ROE? Minesweeping?
7. Iran's response to Trump's nuclear-first framing. Tehran hears "I don't care about economics, I care about nuclear." Does this harden or soften their position?
8. New sanctions targeting Iran-China oil link. Announced as Trump arrives in Beijing. Provocative timing. Xi's reaction?
9. SPR delivery pace. 20% of reserves deployed globally. Q2 draw 8.5M b/d. When does depletion become binding?
10. Israel-Iran dynamic. Netanyahu "concerned" about deal. Does Israel signal conditions for accepting any Trump-Xi-brokered framework?

Net Assessment

C75 is the cycle where the 48-hour window opens. Trump is in Beijing. The 40-nation coalition has declared a military mission framework. Brent has pulled back from C74's $110 surge to $107. The structural picture is unchanged — 11 locks hold — but the next 48 hours contain more diplomatic potential energy than any comparable period since the ceasefire began on April 8.

Trump's "I don't think about Americans' financial situation" statement is the most important signal of C75 — not for what it says about Americans (76% already disapprove his cost of living handling), but for what it tells Xi, Iran, and Israel about Trump's negotiating calculus. By explicitly subordinating economics to nuclear non-proliferation, Trump has narrowed his own acceptable outcome space. He cannot now accept a deal that delivers Hormuz reopening but defers nuclear constraints without appearing to have capitulated on his stated priority. This constrains Xi's ability to broker a partial deal: any framework must include credible nuclear language, not just maritime reopening.

For Xi, the calculus is: (a) China needs Hormuz open (~60% of crude), (b) Trump needs something to show from the trip, (c) Xi can offer diplomatic pressure on Iran but not compliance, (d) the rare earth leverage gives Xi a card on the military side. The most likely summit outcome is a joint statement with language about "working together" on Iran/Hormuz, plus concrete trade deals (food, aircraft), plus a quiet understanding on diplomatic sequencing — not a breakthrough. Time's assessment ("set up to fail") captures the consensus.

The MMM is significant as architecture — it means the international community has moved from consultation to declared intent. But "when conditions allow" is the tell: nobody is forcing Hormuz open militarily without a political framework. The MMM is infrastructure for the day after a deal, not a substitute for one.

The Brent pullback to $107 from $110 is noise within the structural range. EIA's $106/b forecast and 8.5M b/d inventory draw in Q2 confirm the floor. Without a deal, oil stays above $100 indefinitely. With a deal that includes credible reopening, $85-90 is possible within weeks. The gap between those scenarios is the entire war premium.

The Lebanon talks running concurrently with the Beijing summit create an interesting dynamic: if Karam and Dermer produce a withdrawal framework while Trump is with Xi, it gives Trump a "progress" narrative to bring to the Iran conversation. If they stall (Hezbollah opposes), the multi-front pressure compounds.

Revised probability distribution (C75):

• Path D+ (sustained escalation in ceasefire wrapper): ~29% (−1%: ceasefire wrapper cannot survive much longer, but 48-hour pause prevents immediate collapse)
• Path B (full kinetic): ~31% (+1%: Trump's nuclear-first framing elevates this; post-trip decision if no breakthrough)
• Path A' (narrow Hormuz deal + 30-day window): ~21% (+1%: summit creates theoretical space for Xi-mediated narrow deal)
• Path E (deal signed, phased reopening): ~8% (stable: requires nuclear + maritime + sanctions — too complex for 48 hours)
• Path C (indefinite siege): ~6% (−1%: MMM framework and summit suggest the world is not accepting indefinite closure)
• Path F (deal signed, collapses on implementation): ~5% (stable)

Risk level: EXTREME — CRITICAL — TRUMP IN BEIJING (STATE VISIT MAY 13-15) — 48-HOUR WINDOW ACTIVE; "I DON'T THINK ABOUT AMERICANS' FINANCIAL SITUATION" — NUCLEAR > ECONOMICS; 76% DISAPPROVE COST OF LIVING; BRENT $107.05 (PARTIAL CORRECTION FROM $110.43); EIA: $106/B MAY-JUNE, INVENTORIES −8.5M B/D Q2; 40-NATION MMM DECLARED (UK/FRANCE-LED, AUSTRALIA E-7A, "WHEN CONDITIONS ALLOW"); LEBANON TALKS MAY 14-15 (KARAM/DERMER); IEA: 20% OF STRATEGIC RESERVES DEPLOYED; ARAMCO: LOSING 100M BBL/WEEK; PATH B (FULL KINETIC) NOW LEADS AT 31% — FIRST TIME SINGLE MOST PROBABLE; POST-TRIP DECISION WINDOW MAY 15-16; INSURANCE EDGING TO 5% HULL VALUE; DAY 75 / CEASEFIRE DAY 36 — BEIJING WINDOW IS THE LAST MAJOR DE-ESCALATION OPPORTUNITY BEFORE PROBABILITY HARDENS TOWARD B

Sources (C75 new)

Trump in Beijing / China Summit

• Trump in Beijing: navigating a stronger China — The Week
• Trump meets Xi: what both sides want — Irish Times
• Trump Xi Beijing summit begins: trade, Iran, tariffs — BusinessToday
• How Xi's meeting with Trump may spur Iran war progress — The National
• Trump set to meet Xi as war and inflation weigh — WaPo
• Iran war may give China leverage on Trump — The Hill
• Trump says doesn't need Xi's help on Iran — Al Jazeera

Trump Statement / Approval

• Trump: "I don't think about Americans' financial situation" — ABC News
• Trump's gilded indifference — CNN Analysis
• Iran war fuels sharpest inflation spike — WaPo
• Trump's war hell on Americans' wallets — Daily Kos

40-Nation Meeting / MMM

• Australia to join "strictly defensive" UK-France mission — Xinhua
• Defence ministers' meeting on Hormuz multilateral mission — Australia Defence Minister
• Australian aircraft plucked for Hormuz mission — Neos Kosmos
• Australia joins UK-led Hormuz mission — SBS

Oil Prices / Markets

• Brent $107.05 — Trading Economics
• WTI — Trading Economics
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• Oil prices rise as Iran tensions escalate — CNBC

SPR / Reserves

• IEA 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker
• Trump releases more SPR — YourNEWS
• SPR Quick Facts — DOE

Ceasefire / Negotiations

• One page, fourteen points, no deal — The National
• US and Iran closing in on one-page memo — Axios
• Trump ties himself in knots — CNN
• Trump: ceasefire "on life support" — NPR
• New sanctions as ceasefire on life support — MS.NOW

Strait Operations / Insurance

• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis — Wikipedia
• Hormuz insurance costs soar — IBT Australia
• Cost stack: $6-10M per transit — HormuzToll
• Reopening won't mean cheaper shipping — Khaleej Times

Lebanon

• Lebanon, Israel talks May 14-15 — New Arab
• What's at stake in Israel-Lebanon negotiations — Israel Policy Forum
• 2026 Israel-Lebanon peace talks — Wikipedia

Shadow Fleet / Sanctions

• Treasury sb0405 — US Treasury
• Economic Fury sb0472 — US Treasury
• Iran seizes Ocean Koi — Army Recognition
• Iran shadow fleet — Wikipedia

Country Response / Asia

• 2026 Iran war fuel crisis — Wikipedia
• Asian economies at risk as rationing begins — RSM
• Some countries cling to oil as others ration — Marketplace

Run completed 2026-05-13 morning (Day 75). Scheduled cron run — terminal substrate. Grok bridge: NO — Apple Notes timed out x2, full 13-topic sweep. Baseline C74 (2026-05-12-c2.md) → C75 delta. Key C75 deltas: (1) Trump arrived in Beijing — state visit May 13-15 — 48-hour window now active. (2) Trump: "I don't think about Americans' financial situation" — nuclear > economics; 76% disapprove CoL. (3) 40-nation MMM declared: UK/France-led, "strictly defensive," "when conditions allow"; Australia E-7A Wedgetail first named contribution. (4) Brent pulled back to $107.05 (−0.67%) — partial correction from $110.43; EIA: $106/b May-June, inventories −8.5M b/d Q2. (5) IEA: ~20% of strategic reserves deployed globally. (6) Aramco: losing ~100M bbl/week; 2027 normalization. (7) Lebanon talks confirmed May 14-15 (Karam/Dermer); 13 killed May 12; Hezbollah opposes. (8) Insurance edging to 5% hull value. (9) Transit uptick: 18/day May 11 (needs verification). (10) New sanctions targeting Iran-China oil link as Trump arrives in Beijing. Path: B 31% (+1%, NOW LEADS — FIRST TIME), D+ 29% (−1%), A' 21% (+1%), E 8%, C 6% (−1%), F 5%. C75 frame: 48-HOUR BEIJING WINDOW IS THE LAST MAJOR DE-ESCALATION OPPORTUNITY BEFORE PROBABILITY HARDENS TOWARD PATH B. Risk: EXTREME — CRITICAL.

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