Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-04-25 · Morning Cycle

Top-line movers (8 — C46→C47 delta)

1. IRAN DENIES DIRECT TALKS WITH US IN ISLAMABAD (Apr 25, Bloomberg/PressTV/Gulf News/Business Standard/Times of Israel) — Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated flatly: "No meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the US." Araghchi arrived in Islamabad Friday but is meeting Pakistani officials only — "Iran's observations would be conveyed to Pakistan." This is a MAJOR DOWNGRADE from C46's assessment that R2 was "CONFIRMED." The US position is unchanged: Witkoff and Kushner are still traveling to Islamabad Saturday. But the format has shifted from C46's "direct talks" to INDIRECT MEDIATION through Pakistan. This mirrors R1's structure where Pakistan shuttled between delegations. The question is whether proximity (both sides in Islamabad simultaneously) produces substance even without a direct meeting. R1's 21-hour indirect format produced nothing. If R2 follows the same pattern, the Trump 3-5 day window collapses.

1. BRENT DROPS TO ~$105.33 / WTI $94.40 — DIPLOMATIC BRAKE DEEPENING (Apr 25, TradingEconomics/Oneindia/CNBC) — Brent settled at $105.33 (+$0.26, +0.3%) but dipped to $104.4 intraday, snapping a four-session winning streak. This is a –$0.94 decline from C46's $106.27. WTI slipped $1.45 to $94.40 (–1.5%). Weekly performance still massive: Brent ~14-16% weekly gain, WTI ~13%. The $108 threshold is now $2.67 away — significantly eased from C46's $1.73. Markets are pricing R2 talks (even if indirect) as a mild de-escalation signal, but the war premium floor at $100+ remains firm. If R2 collapses over the weekend, Monday reopens the $108 path immediately.

1. LEBANON CEASEFIRE EXTENDED 3 WEEKS — HEZBOLLAH: "MEANINGLESS" (Apr 24-25, Washington Post/CFR/Al Jazeera/Axios/NPR) — Trump mediated directly between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors at the White House, producing a 3-week extension (to ~May 14-15). Trump pledged Washington would help Beirut "protect itself" from Hezbollah. However, Israel continued attacks on southern Lebanon DURING the announcement: six Hezbollah fighters killed in Bint Jbeil, two killed in Touline airstrike. Hezbollah dismissed the extension as "meaningless" given "Israel's insistence on hostile acts including assassinations, shelling, and gunfire." This mirrors the broader pattern: ceasefire on paper, kinetic activity on the ground. C46's Lock #72 (Lebanon ceasefire credibility) DEEPENS — the extension itself is contradicted by concurrent attacks.

1. MOJTABA KHAMENEI INJURIES UPGRADED — IRGC GENERALS GOVERNING (Apr 23-25, Israel Hayom/Times of Israel/Jerusalem Post/Euronews/NYT/Reuters/EADaily) — Multiple sources now provide detailed injury assessment: leg operated on THREE TIMES with prosthesis pending; hand surgery with gradual function recovery; SEVERE FACIAL BURNS making speech difficult; expected series of plastic surgeries. Communication is through an "underground-style system" — handwritten messages in sealed envelopes, passed by courier chain using motorcycles and cars along side roads. IRGC generals "effectively ruling Iran, sidelining gravely injured supreme leader." Four senior officials confirm he is "mentally alert" but access is "extremely difficult and limited." This CONFIRMS and UPGRADES C46's Lock #74 (Supreme Leader incapacitation). The courier-only command system means response times are measured in hours-to-days, not minutes. Strategic decisions during a fast-moving crisis cannot flow through handwritten envelopes on motorcycles.

1. ECONOMIC FURY SANCTIONS WAVE — HENGLI + 40 FIRMS + $344M CRYPTO (Apr 24, Treasury/Fox News/RedState/HSF Kramer) — Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Economic Fury is imposing a financial stranglehold on the Iranian regime." OFAC sanctioned: (a) Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) — one of Iran's largest Chinese crude customers, billions in purchases; (b) ~40 shipping firms and vessels; (c) 19 shadow fleet vessels transporting Iranian crude, LPG, and petrochemicals; (d) $344M in cryptocurrency wallets frozen. This is the most comprehensive single-day sanctions action of the war. Hengli is the first major Chinese refinery targeted, signaling willingness to escalate economic pressure on China's role in Iran's sanctions evasion network.

1. IRAN BANKS FIRST HORMUZ TOLL REVENUE (Apr 23-25, Bloomberg/Washington Times/iHeart/Maritime Gateway/The National) — Iran's deputy speaker of parliament confirmed first toll revenues deposited into Central Bank on Apr 23. Ships paying $1-2M per transit in Chinese yuan and cryptocurrency. Analysts estimate potential $20M/day revenue from tanker tolls alone. Under UNCLOS, Iran cannot legally charge transit tolls through an international strait — this is a sovereignty assertion that creates a new structural precedent. The toll regime, if sustained, represents Iran converting military control of the Strait into a permanent revenue mechanism independent of oil exports.

1. CHABAHAR WAIVER T-0 — EXPIRES TOMORROW APR 26 (Apr 25, India TV/Tribune India/Deccan Herald/The Week/WION/National Herald) — No renewal announced. India planning exit: divesting IPGL stake to an Iranian entity with "legal guarantee that control reverts when sanctions ease." India Ports Global Ltd invested $120M total. MEA confirms "active engagement" with US but no outcome. This is the last day before India's physical presence in Iran's port infrastructure ends. The divestiture-with-reversion plan is a face-saving mechanism — India exits operationally while maintaining a legal claim. But the operational exit is permanent in the near-to-medium term regardless of the legal structure.

1. THREE CARRIERS CONFIRMED OPERATIONAL — BUSH ARRIVAL (Apr 25, multiple) — USS George H.W. Bush arrival confirmed by US military, joining Lincoln and Ford. Three carrier strike groups operational simultaneously: 200+ aircraft, 15K+ personnel. This is the first three-carrier presence in the Middle East in over two decades. Force posture unchanged from C46 but CONFIRMED rather than reported.

1. Conflict status — DAY 57 / CEASEFIRE DAY 18 (R2 DOWNGRADED — INDIRECT MEDIATION ONLY)

The deeper signal: Araghchi may lack the authority to conduct direct talks. With Khamenei communicating by handwritten courier, Araghchi's mandate is unclear. He can convey observations, he cannot negotiate concessions. The IRGC, which controls the military tracks (mines, Strait closure, tolls), operates outside Araghchi's authority entirely. R2's structural problem from C46 — "who can enforce a deal?" — is now compounded by "who can even negotiate one?"

2. Strait operational status — DUAL BLOCKADE + TOLL REGIME + THREE CARRIERS

3. Tanker attacks log — NO NEW INCIDENTS

Running total: 69 maritime events since war start. 3v3 vessel seizure tally (unchanged).

No new kinetic maritime events in C46→C47 window. The R2 diplomatic activity (even if indirect) and the "shoot and kill" ROE are both exerting a restraining effect. Neither side wants to trigger the first carrier-backed engagement while diplomats are physically in Islamabad.

4. Oil prices (Apr 25 morning)

5. SPR — NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE

6. Bypass infrastructure — NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE

7. Insurance — NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE

8. Sanctions / Shadow fleet — ECONOMIC FURY ESCALATION

9. Country matrix — R2 DOWNGRADED + LEBANON + ECONOMIC FURY

10. Policy log (C47 additions)

• Apr 25 — Iran's FM spokesperson: "No meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the US" in Islamabad; observations to be conveyed to Pakistan only (PressTV/Gulf News/Bloomberg)
• Apr 25 — Araghchi arrives in Islamabad — meeting Pakistani officials only; three-country tour (Islamabad → Muscat → Moscow) (Bloomberg/Al Jazeera)
• Apr 25 — Brent settles at $105.33 (+0.3%); intraday dip to $104.4 snapped 4-session streak; WTI $94.40 (–1.5%); weekly: Brent ~14-16%, WTI ~13%
• Apr 24 — ECONOMIC FURY sanctions wave: Treasury sanctions Hengli Petrochemical (China), ~40 shipping firms, 19 shadow fleet vessels, $344M crypto frozen (Treasury/OFAC)
• Apr 24 — Lebanon ceasefire extended 3 WEEKS — Trump mediates between Israeli/Lebanese ambassadors; to ~May 14-15 (WaPo/CFR/Axios)
• Apr 24-25 — Israel attacks Lebanon DURING ceasefire extension announcement — 6 Hezbollah fighters killed Bint Jbeil; 2 killed Touline airstrike; Hezbollah: "meaningless" (Al Jazeera/WaPo)
• Apr 23-25 — Mojtaba Khamenei injuries UPGRADED: 3x leg surgery, prosthesis pending, severe facial burns, courier-only communication system, IRGC generals governing (Israel Hayom/ToI/JPost/Euronews/Reuters/NYT)
• Apr 23 — Iran banks first Hormuz toll revenue — $1-2M/ship; yuan + crypto payments; Central Bank deposit confirmed (Bloomberg/Washington Times)
• Apr 25 — Chabahar waiver T-0 — expires tomorrow; India divesting IPGL stake; no US renewal announced (India TV/WION/National Herald)
• Apr 25 — THREE carriers CONFIRMED operational — USS Bush arrival verified; Lincoln + Ford + Bush; 200+ aircraft, 15K+ personnel

11. Metrics dashboard

12. Structural locks — 79 total (+3 vs C46)

C46 locks status updates

• #69 Diplomatic vacuum lock: RE-LOCKED — Iran's denial of direct talks reverses C46's downgrade from LOCKED to TESTING. The vacuum is NOT being filled — it is being mediated around. Pakistan relaying observations is not negotiation. Upgraded back to LOCKED.
• #73 Diplomatic bifurcation lock: DEEPENING — Three carriers + Economic Fury sanctions wave + indirect-only talks. The US is running maximum military pressure, maximum economic pressure, AND diplomatic engagement simultaneously. All three tracks at full intensity.
• #74 Supreme Leader incapacitation lock: CONFIRMED — Multiple credible sources confirm Khamenei's injuries, courier-only communication, and IRGC governing autonomously. Upgraded from "CRITICAL IF TRUE" to CONFIRMED LOCKED.
• #75 Three-carrier force posture lock: CONFIRMED — Bush arrival verified. All three CSGs operational.
• #76 Chabahar expiry lock: T-0 — Expires tomorrow. No renewal. IPGL divesting.

NEW C47 locks (+3)

• #77 Hormuz toll regime lock — Iran has created a functioning revenue extraction mechanism at the Strait of Hormuz, collecting $1-2M per ship in Chinese yuan and cryptocurrency, with first revenues confirmed deposited in the Central Bank. This is not a blockade — it is a toll gate. Under UNCLOS, transit passage through international straits cannot be tolled. But legal prohibition does not equal physical enforcement. Any diplomatic agreement must now not only reopen the Strait but also dismantle a revenue stream that Iran has proven it can operate and monetize. The toll regime creates an INCENTIVE for Iran to maintain partial Strait control indefinitely — each ship that pays validates the mechanism. If even 10 ships/day pay $1.5M average, that's $15M/day or $5.5B/year — a significant revenue stream for a sanctioned economy. LOCKED — Iran has financial incentive to maintain Strait control beyond military/political considerations.

• #78 Chinese refinery sanctions escalation lock — The sanctioning of Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) is the first direct US action against a major Chinese refinery for Iranian crude purchases. This creates a new escalation layer: US-China economic friction layered on top of US-Iran military conflict. China must now choose between continuing Iranian crude purchases (risking sanctions on its refining infrastructure) or complying (losing a cheap crude supply during a global energy crisis). Beijing's response will determine whether this lock tightens or breaks. If China retaliates with trade countermeasures, the Iran war generates a second economic front. If China quietly complies, Iran loses its largest sanctions evasion customer. LOCKED — US-China sanctions friction created by targeting Chinese refineries; no resolution pathway that doesn't escalate at least one front.

• #79 Ceasefire credibility collapse lock — The Lebanon ceasefire was extended at the White House while Israel simultaneously attacked southern Lebanon, killing 8 people. Hezbollah called the extension "meaningless." This mirrors the broader Iran ceasefire pattern: extended on paper, violated in practice. When ceasefires are extended AND violated simultaneously, the concept of "ceasefire" degrades. Future ceasefire offers (including any R2 output) face a credibility deficit: both sides have demonstrated that extension ≠ compliance. This is not a single violation — it is a pattern that undermines all future diplomatic instruments. LOCKED — ceasefire as a diplomatic instrument has been structurally degraded by concurrent extension and violation.

13. Active clocks

14. Convergence assessment

C46 hypothesis: R2 CONFIRMED with both sides deploying negotiators. Central question: can R2 produce an agreement that the IRGC will obey?

C46→C47 correction: Iran's flat denial — "No meeting is planned" — reverses C46's central assessment. R2 is NOT confirmed as direct talks. It is indirect mediation through Pakistan, which is the R1 format that produced nothing in 21 hours. C46 weighted Path A' (narrow agreement) at 10% and described R2 as having "specific names, venue, timeline, and mediators." C47 retains the names, venue, and mediators but strips the FORMAT: there will be no direct contact unless proximity pressure forces an upgrade.

Three new structural developments C46 didn't have:

1. The toll regime. Iran banking Hormuz toll revenue creates a financial incentive structure that didn't exist in C46. Iran is now EARNING MONEY from the Strait closure — not just imposing military control but monetizing it. This changes the negotiation calculus: any deal must not only reopen the Strait but eliminate a proven revenue stream. Lock #77 makes de-escalation economically costly for Iran in a way that the blockade alone did not.

2. Economic Fury hitting China. Hengli Petrochemical sanctions create a new front. C46 tracked the war as US/Israel vs Iran with Gulf states, SE Asia, and India as affected parties. C47 adds China as a direct participant in the sanctions escalation ladder. If Beijing retaliates, the Iran war generates US-China economic friction. If Beijing complies, Iran loses its largest sanctions evasion partner. Either outcome reshapes the conflict. Lock #78 ensures this cannot be resolved without affecting at least one additional bilateral relationship.

3. Ceasefire credibility collapse. Lebanon ceasefire extended and violated within the same press conference. Hezbollah's "meaningless" assessment is factually supported: Israel killed 8 people during/after the extension announcement. This is not a one-off — it's the pattern. The Iran ceasefire has been "extended" three times while mines are laid and ships seized. Lock #79 means any future diplomatic instrument (R2 framework, narrow agreement, extension) faces an inherent credibility deficit. Both sides know ceasefires are extended but not obeyed.

Revised probability distribution:

• Path A (Comprehensive framework → permanent ceasefire → reopening): 3% (–1). Iran's denial of direct talks, toll regime, and ceasefire credibility collapse all reduce the probability of comprehensive agreement.
• Path A' (Narrow agreement + extension): 7% (–3). R2's downgrade to indirect mediation sharply reduces near-term probability. Shuttle diplomacy through Pakistan is the format that failed in R1. Araghchi's lack of mandate (courier-only Khamenei, autonomous IRGC) means even a narrow agreement has no enforcement mechanism.
• Path B (Full kinetic resumption): 20% (+2). Iran's public denial of talks increases the probability that the Trump 3-5 day window expires without substance, triggering military options. Three carriers are positioned. "Shoot and kill" ROE is active. Economic Fury demonstrates willingness to escalate on all fronts simultaneously.
• Path C (Managed contradiction persists): 48% (+2). Still most likely and growing. The contradiction deepens: ceasefire extended but violated; talks announced but denied; carriers deployed but no engagement; tolls collected but illegal. Every C47 signal reinforces that the system can sustain extreme contradictions without resolving them. The toll regime actually STABILIZES managed contradiction by giving Iran a revenue stream within the current state.
• Path D (Major kinetic escalation during "ceasefire"): 22% (unchanged). "Shoot and kill" ROE active + three carriers + IRGC mine-laying = continuous trigger conditions. But R2 proximity (both sides in Islamabad, even without direct contact) creates a 48-72h restraint window. Path D probability holds because the restraint is temporary and the triggers are structural.

The risk level remains EXTREME — ELEVATED. The "diplomatic comma" from C46 remains — both sides are physically in Islamabad — but the punctuation may be a semicolon rather than a comma: two independent clauses that share a location but not a conversation.

The deepest signal: Iran's toll regime (Lock #77) may be the most consequential development since the Strait closure itself. If Iran can sustain a functioning toll system that generates $15M+/day in yuan and crypto, the financial incentive to maintain Strait control permanently becomes self-reinforcing. No diplomat negotiates away $5.5B/year in revenue without something equally valuable in return. The toll regime transforms the Strait from a military chokepoint into an economic asset — and economic assets are defended more tenaciously than military positions.

Risk level: EXTREME — ELEVATED (R2 DOWNGRADED — INDIRECT MEDIATION; TOLL REGIME CREATES FINANCIAL LOCK ON STRAIT CONTROL)

15. Watchlist — C48 triggers

1. R2 Saturday outcome: Do Witkoff/Kushner and Araghchi interact at all — directly, indirectly, or through Pakistan? Duration and format are the key signals.
2. Iran's "no meeting" — does it hold?: Iran's public denial may be negotiating posture. If proximity pressure forces a direct meeting, C47's downgrade reverses. If the denial holds, R2 = R1 format = likely failure.
3. Chabahar waiver expiry (Saturday Apr 26): Last-minute renewal or formal expiry? IPGL divestiture completion?
4. China response to Hengli sanctions: Does Beijing protest, retaliate, or quietly comply? First public statement on the sanctions will signal.
5. Brent Friday close: $105.33 settled; weekend outcome will determine Monday. R2 substance = $2-4 pullback. R2 collapse = $108+ immediate.
6. Trump 3-5 day window: Expires Sunday night. If no substance by then, what does Trump do? The pattern says: extend again.
7. First kinetic engagement: "Shoot and kill" ROE + IRGC mine-laying = continuous trigger. R2 proximity restrains but doesn't prevent.
8. Hormuz toll data: How many ships paid today? Is the toll regime expanding or static?
9. Mojtaba Khamenei command: Any new reporting on his medical status or command capability.
10. Lebanon ceasefire violations: Does the 3-week extension produce even 24h of compliance, or are violations immediate and continuous?

16. Sources

R2 talks / Iran denial

• Bloomberg: Iran's Araghchi Arrives in Pakistan With US Talks Still in Limbo
• PressTV: No talks with US during FM's Islamabad visit
• Gulf News: US-Iran ceasefire: Iran says no direct talks with US in Islamabad are planned
• Business Standard: No direct talks planned with US representatives in Islamabad: Iran
• Times of Israel: Tehran says no meeting planned between Iranian and US officials during Islamabad talks
• Al Jazeera: Iran war live — Tehran's FM in Islamabad; US says envoys to travel
• Voice of Emirates: Araghchi Presents Iran's Vision for US Talks
• CNN: Day 57 — Live updates
• CBS: Witkoff, Kushner to take part in second round of Iran peace talks

Oil prices

• TradingEconomics: Brent crude oil
• Oneindia: Crude Oil Rates Today April 25, 2026 — Brent $105
• CNBC: Oil prices mixed as US and Iran expected to hold talks
• MSN/Fortune: Current price of oil as of April 25, 2026

Lebanon ceasefire extension

• Washington Post: Hezbollah defiant as Trump says Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended for 3 weeks
• CFR: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extended for Three Weeks
• Al Jazeera: Israel continues attacks on Lebanon despite extension of ceasefire
• Axios: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks
• NPR: Trump announces a 3-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

Mojtaba Khamenei injuries

• Israel Hayom: Injured and isolated, Mojtaba Khamenei rules through tight inner circle
• Times of Israel: IRGC generals effectively ruling Iran, sidelining gravely injured supreme leader
• Jerusalem Post: Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei severely injured, faces disfiguring wounds
• Euronews: Missing in action — what we know about Mojtaba Khamenei's condition
• Reuters/EADaily: Mojtaba Khamenei recovering from severe facial and leg injuries
• NYT/Gateway Pundit: Severely Injured Iranian Supreme Leader waiting for prosthetic leg
• The Defense News: Iran's Power Dynamics Shift as Injured Supreme Leader Relies on Couriers

Economic Fury / Sanctions

• Treasury: Economic Fury Targets Global Network Fueling Iran's Oil Trade
• RedState: Bessent Follows Through on 'Economic Fury' Threat
• Fox News: US targets Chinese refinery in sweeping Iran oil crackdown
• HSF Kramer: Treasury Advances Economic Fury With Expanded Sanctions
• Treasury: Shadow Fleet sanctions (sb0341)

Hormuz toll regime

• Bloomberg: Ships Paying Iran Yuan and Crypto Tolls for Safe Passage
• Washington Times: Iran says it is collecting transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz
• iHeart: Iran Says 1st Strait of Hormuz Toll Revenues Banked
• Maritime Gateway: Iran Confirms First Hormuz Toll Revenue Deposited
• The National: Iran wants to charge ships in the Strait of Hormuz — can it legally?

Chabahar / India

• India TV: India engaged with US to extend Chabahar Port sanctions waiver before April 26 expiry
• Tribune India: India engaging with US to ensure Chabahar projects continue
• WION: India planning exit from Chabahar port as US sanction waiver expires
• Deccan Herald: Chabahar Port — India Mulls Options Amid US Sanctions Threat
• National Herald: Will India exit from Chabahar Port project?

Strait of Hormuz operations

• Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
• Al Jazeera: US to 'shoot and kill' Iranian boats laying mines
• Axios: Iran deploys more mines in the Strait of Hormuz
• Bloomberg: Hormuz tracker — shipping near total freeze

Insurance / shipping

• Strauss Center: Strait of Hormuz Insurance Market
• Maritime Hub: VLCC Freight Rates Skyrocket
• WEF: How Middle East war is turning governments into insurers of last resort

SPR

• DOE: Energy Department Initiates Additional SPR Emergency Exchange
• World Oil: US loans 8.5 MMbbl from SPR in second release

Bypass infrastructure

• ENR: Hormuz Bypass Infrastructure Was Sized for a Short Disruption
• CNBC: Oil exporters scramble for routes beyond Hormuz
• Energy Connects: New supply corridors examined

Energy infrastructure

• HRW: Israel, Iran — Unlawful March Attacks on Energy Infrastructure
• Stimson: South Pars Strike Marks Major Step in Persian Gulf Energy Warfare
• Al Jazeera: Why are South Pars and Ras Laffan so significant?

Country preparedness / SE Asia

• IEA: 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker
• Time: The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Driving a Wave of Global Energy Rationing
• Marketplace: Some countries cling to their oil as others ration fuel
• Wikipedia: 2026 Philippine energy crisis
• Vietnam Plus: Thailand unveils three-phase fuel crisis contingency plan

Casualties

• Wikipedia: Casualties of the 2026 Iran war
• Al Jazeera: Death toll and injuries live tracker
• The Intercept: Pentagon Erases Wounded US Troops From Casualty List

Ceasefire / diplomatic framework

• CNBC: Trump extends ceasefire citing 'seriously fractured' Iranian government
• Wikipedia: 2026 Iran war ceasefire
• Crisis Group: Iran Crisis Monitor #2
• Columbia CGEP: Iran Conflict Brief — Will the Ceasefire Hold?

Shadow fleet / enforcement

• gCaptain: US boards sanctioned shadow fleet tanker in Indian Ocean
• Windward: April 19 Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily

Dual chokepoint / LNG

• The Middle East Insider: Bab al-Mandeb — the second chokepoint
• Arab Center DC: GCC States and the War on Iran

Run completed 2026-04-25 ~09:00 CEST. Grok bridge: NO (Apple Notes MCP timed out). Full 13-topic web sweep. Baseline C46 → C47 gap ~13h (Apr 24 evening → Apr 25 morning). Key delta: IRAN DENIES DIRECT TALKS IN ISLAMABAD — "No meeting is planned" — R2 DOWNGRADED from CONFIRMED to INDIRECT MEDIATION. Brent $105.33 (–$0.94), dipped to $104.4 intraday; WTI $94.40. Lebanon ceasefire extended 3 weeks but Hezbollah: "meaningless" + attacked during announcement. Mojtaba Khamenei injuries CONFIRMED: 3x leg surgery, prosthesis, facial burns, courier-only communication, IRGC governing. ECONOMIC FURY: Hengli Petrochemical (China) sanctioned + 40 firms + 19 vessels + $344M crypto. Iran banks FIRST Hormuz toll revenue ($1-2M/ship, yuan + crypto). Chabahar T-0 — expires tomorrow. Three new locks: #77 Hormuz toll regime, #78 Chinese refinery sanctions escalation, #79 ceasefire credibility collapse. Path A' drops to 7% (–3); Path B rises to 20% (+2); Path C rises to 48% (+2). Risk: EXTREME — ELEVATED (R2 DOWNGRADED — INDIRECT MEDIATION; TOLL REGIME CREATES FINANCIAL LOCK ON STRAIT CONTROL). C47's defining question: can shuttle diplomacy through Pakistan succeed where 21 hours of R1 shuttle diplomacy failed — and can it succeed against an Iran that is monetizing the Strait and governed by IRGC generals communicating through motorcycle couriers?

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