Series: hormuz · Cycle 35
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Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-04-20 · Cycle 35
Top-line movers (10)
- IRGC NAVAL FORCES RE-CLOSE STRAIT (Apr 18 ~12:00 UTC) — Formal IRGC statement: "Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and any offending vessel will be targeted." Iran cites US "repeated breaches of trust" — US blockade maintained in violation of ceasefire. This is a naval-forces OPERATIONAL OVERRIDE of FM Araghchi's Apr 17 "completely open" declaration and Baghaei's Apr 18 formalization (C34). First public intra-regime operational reversal of a Foreign Ministry policy posture in the war.
- 11+ DAY KINETIC PAUSE BROKEN — FOUR DISTINCT EVENTS IN 36H:
- IRNA FORMALLY REJECTS R2 TALKS (Apr 19 state media) — cites "US excessive demands and unreasonable, unrealistic requests, repeated changes in positions, continued contradictory statements," blockade-as-ceasefire-violation, "threatening rhetoric." C34 R2 Monday Apr 20 + $20B framework RAILED. CNN reports Araghchi+Ghalibaf delegation still arriving Tuesday — Iran-internal state-media × delegation-movement contradiction live.
- TRUMP MAXIMUM-PRESSURE RE-ANCHOR (Truth Social Apr 19-20) — tonal regime break from C34 softer posture: "We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!" Also: blockade "costs Iran $500 million dollars a day"; Iran "fired bullets... total violation"; pushed Macron to deploy French navy. C34 "grand bargain dominant" framing reversed.
- OIL TAPE REVERSES C33 REVERSAL — Brent +5-6% to ~$95-96/bbl Monday intraday (from C34 Friday close $88.67, ~$7 round-trip gain); WTI +6% toward $89/bbl (from $83.78). Weekend hyperliquid pre-signaled ($87 Sunday). Friday's $10.72 single-session decline (C33 lock #39) unwound in two trading days. Market has re-priced the dual-surface collapse.
- IRGC "REBUILDING FASTER THAN PRE-WAR" DOCTRINE — Naqdi (senior IRGC adviser) and IRGC Aerospace Force Commander: missile/drone launcher replenishment during ceasefire EXCEEDS pre-war pace; "if hostilities resume, we can launch the latest missiles and drones manufactured this month"; Iran capable of launching newly-produced missiles/drones dating back to Jan 2026. First post-ceasefire Iranian military-reconstitution statement — doctrinal frame for R2 leverage.
- IRAN RETALIATION PROMISE (military Apr 19) — "Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran would soon respond to and retaliate" against Touska "armed piracy." No kinetic follow-through as of baseline write (Mon AM); watchlist item.
- LEBANON CEASEFIRE DAY 4-5 STRESSED, HEZBOLLAH RETALIATION WINDOW PASSED WITHOUT BREACH — IDF demolishing buildings in southern Lebanese villages during ceasefire; "clear the area" buffer-zone policy ongoing; Lebanese army confirms violations; Hezbollah Ismail Baz Apr 18-19 retaliation window (C34 watchlist) passed WITHOUT kinetic escalation; pressure mounting structurally not kinetically.
- PARIS SUMMIT FOLLOW-UP CONFIRMED — 51 countries Apr 17 + London planning conference Apr 22-23 (military planners, UK-FR joint chair); initiative formally named "Strait of Hormuz Maritime Freedom of Navigation Initiative"; post-peace defensive mission architecture advancing independent of R2 trajectory.
- SPR THIRD TRANCHE LOANED APR 19 — 26.03M bbl to 9 oil companies (DOE / Today in Oil & Gas). Third batch under 172M-bbl release authorization from Mar 11. Timing: day of Touska seizure = operational-financial dual response.
1. Conflict status — DAY 52 / CEASEFIRE DAY 13
| Parameter | C34 (Apr 18 AM) | C35 (Apr 20 AM) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| War day | Day 50 | Day 52 | +2 |
| Ceasefire day | Day 11 | Day 13 | +2 |
| Ceasefire expiry | Apr 22 (T-4) | Apr 22 (T-2) | compressed |
| Kinetic pause days | 11+ | BROKEN Apr 18 (after 11 days) | paused regime ended |
| Active kinetic events | 0 | 4 (SANMAR / CMA CGM / UKMTO / Touska) | regime break |
2. Strait operational status — CLOSED (single-surface restored)
| Parameter | C34 (Apr 18 AM) | C35 (Apr 20 AM) |
|---|---|---|
| Iran official posture | "Completely open" (Araghchi Apr 17 + Baghaei Apr 18 formalization) | CLOSED by IRGC naval forces (Apr 18 ~12:00 UTC) |
| US blockade | "In full force until peace deal" | Active + kinetic (Touska seizure) |
| Dual-surface frame (C33 lock #40) | LIVE (40% completion validated) | COLLAPSED to single-surface |
| Transit completion rate | 40% (8/20 Windward, C34) | Zero direct transits attempted Apr 19-20; Apr 18 peak 35 attempts → 13+ reversals post-closure |
| Kinetic events | 0 in 11+ days | 4 in 36h |
Windward Apr 18-19 data
- Apr 18 pre-closure: 35 vessel transits (8 inbound / 27 outbound) — elevated push ahead of IRGC mid-day announcement
- Apr 18 post-closure (~12:00 UTC): 13+ confirmed reversals within 1 hour including 4 CMA CGM boxships that had already transited + U-turned
- Apr 19: 7 VLCCs detected + STS transfer (two ~100m tankers) off Port of Chabahar (east of Hormuz) — Iranian export tempo ~11M bbl cumulative since Apr 13 blockade start, operating outside strait via Chabahar
- Apr 20 (baseline): "Strait at standstill" per CNN Day 51; 2 tankers turned back by Iranian armed forces after warnings (Sunday)
3. Tanker log (verified incidents Apr 18-19)
| Vessel | Flag / Type | Incident | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| SANMAR HERALD | India VLCC+ (~1.85M bbl crude) | IRGC gunboat fire Apr 18 09:20 UTC ~20 nm NE Oman; held Iranian transit clearance | Reversed to UAE; cargo undelivered |
| CMA CGM EVERGLADE | France (CMA CGM container) | Warning shots Apr 18; IMO logged damage N of Kumzar | Crew safe; damage reported |
| Unidentified container | — | UKMTO-confirmed unknown-projectile strike Apr 18 ~11:25 UTC ~25 nm NE Oman | Containers damaged |
| TOUSKA | Iranian-flag cargo ~900ft | USS Spruance fire to engine room Apr 19; 6h standoff; USMC board | SEIZED; first under blockade |
4. Oil prices (Mon Apr 20 AM)
| Benchmark | C33 close Apr 17 | C34 close Apr 18 | C35 Mon AM intraday | Δ vs C34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $88.67 (–$10.72 / –10.8%) | $88.67 (flat) | ~$95-96 (+5-6%) | +$7 round-trip |
| WTI | $83.78 (–11.5%) | $83.78 (flat) | ~$89 (+6%) | +$5 round-trip |
| Hyperliquid weekend | — | — | WTI $87 Sunday (pre-signaled) | — |
| Dated Brent (physical) | ~$115-122 | ~$115-122 | (not refreshed this sweep) | — |
IEA (Apr 14 OMR, restated Apr 18): "largest supply disruption in history of global oil market"; Birol — "13M bpd lost as of today; tomorrow may be bigger"; April "much worse than March." OPEC output –7.89M bpd March to 20.79M bpd.
5. SPR — third tranche loaned Apr 19
- Apr 19: 26.03M bbl loaned to 9 oil companies (DOE) — third batch under Mar 11 Trump 172M-bbl authorization
- Cumulative under current emergency authorization: ~93.5M committed (8.48 tranche 1 + SPR 2nd tranche ~35 + 26.03 tranche 3 + companion allocations; consolidating cumulatively across cycles)
- IEA coordinated release: 400M bbl across 32 member nations (largest in group history)
- Signal: Loan-not-sale structure preserves replenishment path; 3rd-tranche timing Apr 19 = same day as Touska seizure (operational × financial dual response)
6. Bypass infrastructure
| Route | Status C34 | Status C35 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi East-West Pipeline | +700 kbpd restored (C28 downgrade of lock #2) | Stable | Was core C1 structural loss |
| Saudi Manifa | +300 kbpd restored (C33) | Stable | 1.0M of 1.6M initial structural loss now reversed |
| Iraq-Syria (Basra-Haditha-Baniyas) | Phase 2 second VLCC loading (C34) | Scaling | First VLCC Asahi Princess C32, second VLCC C34; westbound crude alt |
| Iraq-Jordan-Aqaba | 500-700 tankers/day (C32) | Stable | Tanker-scale bypass |
| Chabahar (east of Hormuz) | Active (C32) | Elevated — 7 VLCCs + STS Apr 19 (Windward) | Iran operating OUTSIDE strait to sustain ~11M bbl cumulative export since Apr 13 |
7. Insurance
- Shipowner P&I: C33 noted no re-entry post-opening; C35 reversal → return to C32 prohibitive terms
- DFC reinsurance: $40B war-risk backstop (C31 baseline, unchanged)
- Windward risk overlay: high-risk zone extended to Kumzar / N Oman / Gulf of Oman (formerly Strait-centric)
- Rate signal: Not refreshed this sweep; expected re-hardening on four-event kinetic cluster
8. Sanctions / Treasury
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Shamkhani UAE designations (Meritron DMCC + 10 UAE firms) | C31 lock persists |
| GL-U | Expired Apr 19 — Reliance Felicity anchored Sikka since Apr 12; Hedy; Lenore; Kaviz. Cliff reached. Any post-expiry compliance dynamics pending. |
| Chabahar waiver | Apr 26 expiry (T-6 days) — parallel cliff |
| SDGT waivers (Bessent economic fury) | Non-renewal, consistent with C32 |
| Chinese banks warnings | Active (C32) |
9. Country matrix
| Country | Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| US | Maximum-pressure re-anchor | Trump "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY" / bridges + power plants threat; Touska seizure; Macron pushed to deploy French navy |
| Iran | Intra-state operational contradiction | IRGC closes × IRNA rejects R2 × Araghchi+Ghalibaf delegation still arriving Tuesday × Naqdi "faster than pre-war" × military retaliation-promise |
| UK | London planning conference Apr 22-23 | Military planners convene; joint UK-FR chair |
| France | First vessel targeted (CMA CGM Everglade) | Macron pressure-point; Paris leadership × direct commercial exposure |
| Italy | Meloni Paris attendance (C31/C32) | Post-Trump-rupture aligned with UK-FR axis |
| Germany | Merz Bundeswehr Gulf offer (C31) | Architecturally committed, not yet deployed |
| Pakistan | Munir mediation extended | Iranian delegation arriving Tuesday despite IRNA rejection — Pakistan keeps channel open |
| India | GL-U expired; Felicity/Hedy/Kaviz/Lenore cargoes received | 4M bbl secured pre-cliff |
| Israel | Lebanon buffer-zone demolitions active | Ceasefire × operational stress continues |
| Lebanon | Ceasefire Day 4-5 stressed, Hezbollah retaliation window passed without breach | Structural pressure not kinetic |
| Saudi Arabia | Bypass infrastructure restored | 1.0M of 1.6M structural loss recovered |
| Qatar | Ras Laffan partial restart | 17% capacity loss persists for years |
| UAE | Public US friction via Shamkhani designations | — |
10. Policy log (Apr 18-20)
- Apr 18 ~12:00 UTC — IRGC naval forces re-close Strait (formal statement)
- Apr 18 09:20 UTC — SANMAR HERALD fired on
- Apr 18 11:25 UTC — UKMTO unknown-projectile container strike
- Apr 18 (date) — CMA CGM Everglade warning shots, damaged N Kumzar
- Apr 19 morning — IRNA formal R2 rejection (state media)
- Apr 19 (date) — Trump Truth Social: "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY" / bridges + power plants / $500M/day
- Apr 19 (date) — USS Spruance engine-room fire on Touska; 6h standoff; USMC board + seize
- Apr 19 (date) — Iran military retaliation-promise issued
- Apr 19 (date) — IRGC Aerospace Force commander + Naqdi rebuild-faster-than-pre-war doctrine
- Apr 19 (date) — SPR third tranche 26.03M bbl loaned to 9 oil companies (DOE)
- Apr 20 AM — Oil tape +5-6% spike; CNN Day 51 coverage "Strait at standstill"; 2 tankers turned back by Iranian forces Sunday
11. Metrics dashboard
| Metric | C34 | C35 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structural locks | 42 | 47 | +5 |
| Active contradictions (cross-tracker incl. TACO) | 27 (TACO C17) | 28 | +1 (Iran IRNA × delegation) |
| Kinetic events (war-clock) | 0 in 11+ days | 4 in 36h | regime break |
| Ceasefire days remaining | T-4 | T-2 | compressed |
| Extension probability | 52% | 35% | –17 |
| Framework probability | 26% | 18% | –8 |
| Collapse probability | 29% | 42% | +13 |
| 6-month track | 22% | 18% | –4 |
| Kinetic escalation | 8% | 18% | +10 |
| Lebanon-Hezbollah spillover | 12% | 14% | +2 |
| Lebanon breakdown | 22% | 26% | +4 |
| Hormuz structural-resolution | 13% | 5% | –8 |
12. Structural locks — 47 total (+5 vs C34)
Carried from C34 (42), status update
- #2 Saudi East-West: DOWNGRADED persists (restored C28)
- #39 $10 oil reversal single-session (C33): ANNOTATED — REVERSED in 2 sessions (C35 +$7 round-trip); historical lock remains, regime non-persistent
- #40 Dual-surface resolution framework (C33): ANNOTATED — LIVE THEN COLLAPSED (48h regime Apr 17-18; quantitatively validated C34 then structurally broken C35); frame holds as structural observation of an inherently unstable regime, not as ongoing live state
- #41 20-ship transit 40% completion (C34): CONFIRMED as historical datapoint — validated the dual-surface was real operational regime, not rhetorical
- #42 R2 Monday + $20B economic framework (C34): DOWNGRADED — IRNA rejected R2; delegation traveling anyway; architecture live but status degraded
NEW C35 locks (+5)
- #43 IRGC naval-forces operational override of FM Araghchi open-declaration — First public intra-regime operational reversal of Foreign Ministry policy posture in the war; signals IRGC has operational veto over FM diplomatic announcements; doctrinal lock for Iranian decision-making architecture
- #44 Four-event kinetic cluster Apr 18-19 (SANMAR HERALD / CMA CGM Everglade / UKMTO unidentified / Touska seizure) — Breaks 11+ day pause, longest of the war; first US Navy ship-firing + seizure under blockade; first French vessel targeted; first VLCC fired-on under blockade; structural shift from deterrence-posture to kinetic-posture at blockade boundary
- #45 Iran intra-state operational × diplomatic contradiction — IRNA formal rejection × Araghchi+Ghalibaf delegation arriving Tuesday; dual-track architecture where state media and delegation movement point in opposite directions = first such configuration tracked this war; Iran reserving both outcomes simultaneously
- #46 IRGC rebuild-faster-than-pre-war doctrine (Naqdi + Aerospace Force commander, Apr 19) — First post-ceasefire Iranian military-reconstitution statement; "Jan 2026 missiles/drones" claim positions post-ceasefire resumption with newer capability than pre-war strike targets; doctrinal frame for R2 leverage independent of negotiation track
- #47 Trump maximum-pressure re-anchor — Truth Social "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY" / bridges + power plants / $500M/day; rhetorical regime break from C34 softer posture; first explicit US threat-of-infrastructure-strike since ceasefire began; locks tonal pole back to maximum-pressure anchor for R2 entry
13. Active clocks
| Clock | Expiry / Trigger | Days remaining Mon AM |
|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire expiry | Apr 22 | T-2 |
| R2 Tuesday talks | Apr 21 (delegation arriving despite IRNA rejection) | T-1 |
| London planning conference | Apr 22-23 | T-2 / T-3 |
| Chabahar waiver | Apr 26 | T-6 |
| Iran retaliation window (Touska response) | Open Apr 19 — ongoing | active |
| Israel Lebanon ceasefire | Day 4-5 of 10-day cessation | ~T-5 |
| IRGC rebuild timing (per Naqdi) | "Jan 2026 missiles" — can fire now | active (operational) |
14. Convergence assessment
C33 hypothesis: Dual-surface resolution framework — operational de-escalation × structural non-resolution simultaneously.
C34 validation: 40% transit completion quantitatively validated dual-surface as live regime, not rhetorical.
C35 failure mode: Dual-surface was an inherently unstable regime — the "open × blockade" configuration required both surfaces to coexist. When IRGC asserted operational veto over FM Araghchi's declaration (Lock #43), the "open" surface collapsed, reverting to single-surface (CLOSED × BLOCKADE) — the C32 baseline reasserts.
Critical observation: The 48-hour dual-surface regime (Apr 17 eve → Apr 18 PM ~12:00 UTC) generated four kinetic events in the 36h following its collapse. The pattern: dual-surface instability did not dissipate smoothly — it released as kinetic events when the "open" surface ruptured. This suggests the kinetic pause of C31-C34 was held by the existence of the dual-surface frame as a decompression channel; when that frame closed, pressure converted to kinetic output.
Implication for C36+: If R2 Tuesday produces another dual-surface regime (e.g., partial Hormuz reopening paired with selective blockade relaxation), the C35 data suggests the regime will be no more stable than 48-96h absent structural resolution of (a) US blockade status, (b) Iranian enrichment, (c) Hezbollah/regional proxies. Watch for kinetic release at frame-break boundaries, not at frame-creation boundaries.
Probabilities — regime break toward collapse pole:
- Extension 52 → 35% (−17)
- Framework 26 → 18% (−8)
- Collapse 29 → 42% (+13)
- Kinetic escalation 8 → 18% (+10)
Risk level: ELEVATED → HIGH (conditional on R2 Tuesday outcome).
Scout discipline note: C35 does not claim the regime is resolved toward collapse. The Iran intra-state contradiction (Lock #45) means Iran is holding both outcomes open — IRNA public rejection preserves domestic hardline pole; delegation movement preserves negotiation pole. Tuesday R2 could produce: (a) renewed dual-surface regime with fresh 48h instability clock, (b) collapse confirmation with kinetic escalation, (c) substantive framework breakthrough (low-probability tail, ~18% aligned with framework estimate). Scout does not pick. Signals bind; narrative doesn't.
15. Watchlist — C36 triggers
- Iran kinetic retaliation for Touska seizure (promise Apr 19; window open)
- R2 Tuesday Apr 21 Islamabad — delegation arrival vs IRNA rejection contradiction resolves
- Ceasefire expiry Apr 22 — extension / collapse / kinetic resumption
- London planning conference Apr 22-23 — defensive mission architecture formalizes independent of R2
- Oil tape — Brent $100 threshold test; futures-physical spread re-widening
- Trump follow-through on bridges/power plants threat — tonal × operational alignment
- Hezbollah response to IDF demolition ops in southern Lebanon buffer zone
- Chabahar corridor — 7-VLCC tempo sustainable? Insurance reaction?
- Naqdi claim verification — independent intelligence on IRGC missile/drone rebuild pace
- Fresh kinetic events at strait boundary — four-event cluster repetition?
16. Sources
Hormuz re-closure (Apr 18-19)
- Iran War: Tanker Traffic Stalls as Gunfire, Threats Close Hormuz Strait — Bloomberg
- Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed again as vessels attempting to cross come under fire — CNBC
- What led to closure of Strait of Hormuz, just 24 hours after Iran announced it's 'completely open' — The Week
- Hormuz standoff reignites — Euronews
- Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again — NPR
- Day 50 of Middle East conflict — CNN
IRNA R2 rejection
- Iran rejects second round of talks with US — IRNA / Iran International
- Iran rejects second round of talks with US — Jerusalem Post
- Iran 'rejects' second round of talks — Irish Times
- Iran Rejects New Peace Talks — Time
- Iran says no talks with US for now — Al Jazeera
- Iran rebuffs Trump's plan — CNBC
- Iranian delegation to arrive in Pakistan Tuesday — CNN / Iran International
Ship-firing incidents
- Trump: Iran fired bullets at French ship and UK freighter — Pravda EN
- French vessel subject to "warning shots" in Strait of Hormuz — Xinhua
- CMA CGM Vessel Targeted in Strait of Hormuz — Athens Times
- Was a French vessel targeted in Strait of Hormuz again? — The Week
- Peace talks scheduled in Islamabad despite Iran firing on ships — Long Island
- Iran Reimposes Control of Strait of Hormuz and Fires on Tankers — Time
Touska seizure
- U.S. struck, seized Iranian-flagged ship Touska — CNBC
- US Marines rappel onto Touska after six-hour standoff — Jerusalem Post
- USS Spruance 'blows hole' in Iranian ship — Times of San Diego
- US Navy disables and seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship — The National
- US seizes Iranian cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz — NPR
- US takes Iran-flagged ship into custody — Axios
- Day 51 of Middle East conflict — USS Spruance seizes Touska — CNN
Oil prices
- Oil prices rise anew after US-Iran Hormuz standoff — BNN Bloomberg
- As oil prices plunge below $91, new Hormuz crisis emerges — Al Jazeera
- Oil prices spike again following latest standoff — PBS
- Brent crude oil — Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Price Today April 19, 2026: Brent Jumps Toward $98 — Angle360NG
Trump "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY"
- Donald Trump warns Iran 'no more Mr. Nice Guy' — Newsweek
- Trump Warns Iran: 'No More Mr. Nice Guy' — PJ Media
- White House Shares Trump's Blunt Warning — Life News Agency
- No More Mr. Nice Guy: Trump's Fresh Truth Warning — Republic World
- 'No more Mr. Nice Guy!': Trump says Iran committed 'serious' ceasefire violation — Jerusalem Post
IRGC rebuild doctrine
- IRGC Says Missile Stockpile Replenished Faster Than Before War — Seoul Economic Daily
- Iran replenishing missile launchers faster than before war: IRGC commander — PressTV
- Iran claims it replenishes missile launchers faster than before war — Jerusalem Post
- Iran strengthens missile and drone capabilities during ceasefire — Capital News Point
- Iran says it's replenishing missile, drone launchers at faster rate — Times of Israel
Paris summit / London planning conference
- Joint Statement by Macron and Starmer — GOV.UK
- European leaders press ahead with defensive mission — Euronews
- UK and France lead multinational mission post-Paris summit — Pravda France
- Macron and Starmer host allies for Hormuz maritime security summit — Al Jazeera
SPR third tranche
- US Lends 26.03 Million Barrels of SPR Oil in Third Batch — Today in Oil and Gas
- United States to Release 172 Million Barrels from SPR — DOE
- Energy Department Begins Delivering SPR Barrels at Record Speeds — DOE
Windward Apr 18-19 maritime data
- April 19, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily — Windward
- Windward Strait of Hormuz Daily Intelligence
- Strait of Hormuz Traffic Down As U.S. Blockade Appears to Deter Some Ships — USNI News
Lebanon ceasefire
- 2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire — Wikipedia
- Does Israel's 'Yellow Line' violate the Lebanon ceasefire? — Al Jazeera
- IDF proceeding with demolition of south Lebanese towns — Times of Israel
IEA / supply
- Oil Market Report - April 2026 — IEA
- IEA: Oil Prices Don't Reflect the Crisis — European Business Magazine
- Global oil demand to plunge amid Iran war disruptions — Al Jazeera
Ceasefire expiry / R2
- 2026 Iran war ceasefire — Wikipedia
- Iran Ceasefire Expiry: Seven Days to Avoid War Resuming — European Business Magazine
- No date set for US-Iran talks — Al Jazeera
- Islamabad Talks — Wikipedia
Day 52 context
- Iran war: What is happening on day 52 — Al Jazeera
- Trump threatens to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges — WSWS
- Live updates: Iran war, Strait of Hormuz at standstill — CNN
- Live updates: Tehran vows retaliation after US seizes ship — CNN
Grok X-Pulse (primary lead signal, Apr 19 17:26 UTC)
- Pasted by Velastra; all 6 hot claims independently verified by Scout web sweep
- Tier 1 signal sources Grok flagged: @unusual_whales, @TankerTrackers, @RALee85, @JavierBlas
- Grok-self-flagged contradictions: open × re-closed narratives both active; ship-firing attribution unverified (now confirmed via CMA CGM statement + Trump Truth Social + Windward logs); nuclear setback claims contested (not refreshed this sweep)
Run completed 2026-04-20 ~10:45 CEST. Grok bridge ~17h at write time (outside 12h window but regime-break-dense). Scout full sweep verified all 6 Grok hot claims + 4 material additions (SPR 3rd tranche, London planning Apr 22-23, Windward 11M-bbl Chabahar tempo, Iran intra-state delegation × IRNA contradiction). Baseline C34 → C35 gap 49h (Apr 18 AM → Apr 20 AM) — Apr 18 PM/evening, Apr 19 AM/PM/evening scheduled cycles missed; C35 absorbs as catch-up.
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