Hormuz Crisis Tracker — 2026-04-11 · Afternoon Cycle (C1)

🔴🔴 HORMUZ TRANSIT COLLAPSES TO 2 SHIPS ON APR 11 — LOWEST SINCE CEASEFIRE, NEITHER OIL NOR GAS — Per S&P Global Market Intelligence ship tracking data, just two vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday April 11, and neither was an oil or gas tanker. This is the lowest daily count since Trump announced the US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday Apr 7 — a sharp downward break from the recent 11 Tue → 5 Wed → 7 Thu "oscillating" pattern documented in C2. The Iranian-permissioned corridor has not only failed to reopen commercially — it is tightening under the diplomatic cover of Islamabad Day 2. Trump responded Thursday via Truth Social: Iran is "doing a very poor job" of opening the strait and "better stop" charging tolls. (NBC News live, CNBC toll warning, Al Jazeera shipping standstill)

🔴 IRAN STATE TV: RED LINES INCLUDE CONTROL OF HORMUZ + LEBANON TRUCE — As talks opened Saturday, Iranian state TV publicly listed Tehran's red lines: (1) formal acknowledgment of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz including transit fee collection, (2) ceasefire in Lebanon. This is an explicit restatement that what the US frames as "ceasefire violation" (Iranian control over Hormuz transits and tolls) is, from Tehran's side, the structural precondition to any Phase 2 framework. The positions are not merely distant — they are mirror-inverse on the same issue. (Times of Israel liveblog, Xinhua Islamabad distinct/difficult)

🔴 GHALIBAF PRECONDITIONS: "LEBANON CEASEFIRE + FROZEN ASSETS RELEASE MUST HAPPEN BEFORE NEGOTIATIONS BEGIN" — Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (head of the Iranian delegation) posted on social media Friday evening that two conditions must be fulfilled BEFORE the negotiations can start: Lebanon ceasefire implementation and the unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad. "These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin," Qalibaf said. This is not a negotiating demand inside talks — it is a demand that talks not commence at all until the preconditions are met. Araghchi arrived separately stating Iran enters talks "with complete distrust." (CNBC Iran speaker preconditions, Times of Israel preconditions, PressTV Araghchi)

🟡🔴 FROZEN ASSETS — IRAN CLAIMS $6B RELEASE AGREED; WASHINGTON DENIES — Reuters reported citing a senior Iranian source that the US had agreed to release ~$6B of frozen Iranian assets held in Qatar and other banks, "directly linked to ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz." Press TV and Al-Monitor carried the same line. A senior US official told CBS News that Washington has NOT unfrozen Iranian assets in Qatar and foreign banks, explicitly denying the Iranian framing. This is a public contradictory readout in the middle of Day 2 — either a deliberate Iranian pressure tactic, a US tactical denial to preserve negotiating leverage, or a real misunderstanding. All three are bad signals for framework convergence. (Reuters via Investing, Al-Monitor, RNZ Washington denial)

🔴 IRAN'S "10-POINT PLAN" CLAIMS — Iran claimed it had "forced the criminal America to accept its 10-point plan," in which the US is allegedly committed in principle to: (1) non-aggression guarantee, (2) continuing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, (3) accepting uranium enrichment, (4) lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, (5) terminating all UNSC and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, (6) paying compensation to Iran, (7) withdrawing American combat forces from the region, (8) stopping the war on all fronts including against Hezbollah. This is a maximalist Iranian public framing; there is no US confirmation. As a diplomatic posture it is the inverse of what Vance, Netanyahu, and Trump have publicly stated. The gap between the two publicly-stated positions is now the widest it has been since talks were announced. (Times of Israel red lines)

🔴 DATED BRENT PHYSICAL HITS $144/BBL RECORD — FUTURES-PHYSICAL SPREAD NOW ~$48 — Per Axios and Berkshire Edge market analysis, "Dated Brent," the physical grade refiners buy, hit a record $144 per barrel this week, while Brent futures topped out briefly at ~$120 in March and now trade near $95–96. The ~$48/bbl paper-physical disconnect is the widest ever observed, and analysts note "the financial market and physical market disconnect has never been seen for so long." This confirms C2's framing but at an even wider spread: the paper market is pricing ceasefire / diplomatic resolution; the physical market is pricing "I literally cannot get crude out of the Gulf." Futures should converge upward unless Hormuz actually reopens — which it manifestly is not. (Axios energy shock, Berkshire Edge futures vs physical, CNBC dated Brent)

🟡 OIL FUTURES HOLDING $95–96 — WTI $95.5, BRENT $96 — Brent futures near $96/bbl, WTI around $95.5/bbl on Friday close / Saturday morning. Prices remain on track for ~10% weekly drop as paper markets price diplomatic optics. Goldman call unchanged: >$100 Brent throughout 2026 if Hormuz closure extends another month. EIA April STEO forecasts Brent peaking ~$115/bbl in Q2 before easing. (OilPrice Goldman, EIA April STEO, CNBC Fri oil)

1. Conflict Status

Day 43 of the 2026 Iran War (started Feb 28, Operation Epic Fury). CEASEFIRE DAY 4 — TALKS DAY 2 / PROXIMITY FORMAT / PRECONDITIONS NOT MET / KINETIC DIVERGENCE WIDENING.

DIFF vs. C2 (Apr 10 Eve) — What Changed Overnight into Apr 11:

1. Hormuz transit collapsed — C2: 11 Tue / 5 Wed / 7 Thu "oscillating." C1 Apr 11: 2 ships on Saturday (S&P Global), neither oil/gas. This is a ~71% drop from Thursday's 7, and a ~82% drop from Tuesday's 11. The "corridor permission" mode has narrowed during Talks Day 2, not widened.

1. Ghalibaf preconditions formalized on social media Friday night — C2: Iran's minimum was Lebanon ceasefire inclusion. C1 Apr 11: Lebanon ceasefire + $6B assets unfreeze must happen BEFORE talks begin, not within talks. Structurally raises the bar.

1. Iran state TV red lines published — NEW. Hormuz control + Lebanon truce as formal red lines. First time Iranian state media has explicitly listed Hormuz control as a non-negotiable in the talks.

1. Iran "10-point plan" claim — NEW. Maximalist Iranian framing claiming US acceptance in principle of: non-aggression, Hormuz control, enrichment, sanctions lifted, UNSC/IAEA terminations, compensation, US troop withdrawal, Lebanon war stopped. Functions as public marker-setting.

1. $6B frozen assets — contradictory public readouts — NEW. Iranian source (Reuters): US agreed. US senior official (CBS): Washington has NOT unfrozen assets. Publicly irreconcilable.

1. Dated Brent hit record $144/bbl — C2: physical ">$120/bbl." C1: $144/bbl record this week, widening the paper-physical spread to ~$48/bbl. "Never seen this disconnect for so long" per analysts.

1. Araghchi arrived "with complete distrust" — NEW. PressTV carried FM's public framing as he arrived.

1. 71-member Iranian delegation — NEW. Large delegation size disclosed by news24online. Compare to US (Vance + Witkoff + Kushner + staff).

1. Petroline repair timeline still undisclosed — ↔. No public Aramco statement on when the pumping station returns. Damage remains quantified at -700 kbpd (Day 3 post-strike).

1. Trump "very poor job" framing hardened — UPGRADE. Trump's Thursday Truth Social post + Vance "don't try to play the US" posture tightening US rhetorical posture as throughput collapses.

1. No new Israeli Lebanon strike data since Wed 300 dead / 1,150 injured — Watchful; airstrike toll not updated Saturday morning but strikes continue per Al Jazeera frame.

1. Bushehr projectile activity unchanged — ↔. Last confirmed strike Apr 4 (one plant employee killed). Grossi "deeply concerned" statement Saturday repeat.

2. Strait of Hormuz — Operational Status

Transit arithmetic (updated):

• 5-day rolling average Tue–Sat: (11 + 5 + 7 + ? + 2) / 5 ≈ 6.25/day (conservative, assuming Fri ≈ 6)
• At 6.25/day, backlog clearance for 600 stranded vessels: ~96 days
• At 2/day (if Saturday persists), backlog clearance: ~300 days
• Pre-war 130/day ceiling: structurally impossible at current corridor mode
• Ceasefire-era upper bound confirmed at 10–12/day (Tue 11 was peak cooperation)
• Ceasefire-era lower bound: 2/day, no oil/gas — observed Apr 11

3. Tanker Attacks & Infrastructure Strikes — Running Log

4. Oil Prices

• Physical market (refiners buying prompt seaborne cargo in NW Europe via dated Brent): cannot access supply, bidding up to $144/bbl to lock in barrels
• Futures market (Jun forward Brent contract): pricing diplomatic resolution, priced as if Hormuz reopens
• Convergence direction: historically physical leads, futures follow. Futures must rise ~50% to meet physical unless Hormuz actually reopens commercially

What's driving C1 vs C2 futures stability despite record dated Brent:

1. Talks Day 2 "not a walkout yet" optics — paper stays anchored $95–97
2. Week-on-week ~10% drop narrative still being written
3. Iranian preconditions not yet formally rejected by US — Ghalibaf's Friday night post is still "positioning," not "walkout"
4. Physical market knows better — $144 dated Brent says the futures anchor is fiction

• Structural floor: $95–98/bbl futures, $140+/bbl physical
• Snap-back risk on precondition rejection: Futures $105–115+; physical immediate $150–160
• Snap-back risk on further Hormuz contraction: Already priced into physical; futures would gap up 10–15%
• Downside floor: Only a Phase 2 framework WITH Hormuz throughput timeline AND insurance re-entry path would break $90; no plausible 2-week pathway

5. Strategic Petroleum Reserves

6. Bypass Infrastructure

GAP: ~14–15 mb/d unbridgeable — holding at C2 level. RISK OF WIDENING if (a) further Petroline strikes, (b) Houthi Bab al-Mandab interdiction of Yanbu outflow, or (c) Qatar Ras Laffan damage cascades to other Gulf LNG terminals.

C1 net bypass delta vs C2: ZERO. Bypass capacity is neither recovering nor degrading. The Petroline repair timeline silence from Aramco is itself a signal — if repair were weeks-away, Aramco would likely disclose to anchor market expectations. Silence implies weeks-to-months horizon not yet ready for disclosure.

7. Maritime Insurance & Shipping

Reinstatement pathway: Even if safety clears, coverage must be renegotiated individually vessel-by-vessel, voyage-by-voyage, with each reinsurance layer. Capacity withdrawn at treaty level must be re-underwritten. This is weeks-to-months after the safety lock releases, not hours.

8. Shadow Fleet & Sanctions

• Shadow fleet disposition: ~1,400 vessels globally, ~25% of global tanker fleet. Primary transit fleet for Iran + Russia + sanctioned trade flows. Iranian crypto/yuan tolls feed shadow-fleet financial infrastructure.
• Russian precedent (Arhimeda Thu): First Russian-flagged VLCC through IRGC corridor. No repeat transits reported Sat.
• Kunlun Bank CIPS rail: Explicit non-SWIFT settlement channel carrying Hormuz toll revenue. No updates C1.
• Saturday pattern: Zero new shadow fleet seizures; zero new IRGC kinetic actions against own tankers. Attack-free Saturday coexists with Hormuz throttle.

9. Country Response Matrix

10. Policy & Regulatory Actions (C1-specific additions)

11. Key Metrics Dashboard

12. Convergence Assessment — Structural Locks Model

What Changed This Cycle (numbered):

1. Hormuz transit collapsed to 2/day on Sat Apr 11, neither oil/gas. S&P Global confirms lowest daily throughput since ceasefire. The corridor has contracted, not expanded, during Talks Day 2. The "5→7 acceleration" framing from C1 Apr 10 is now fully dead; the "11→5→7 oscillation" from C2 is now "11→5→7→?→2 tightening." IRGC is using the permission switch as talks leverage.

1. Ghalibaf preconditions formalized: Lebanon ceasefire + $6B frozen assets unfreeze must happen BEFORE negotiations begin — posted publicly on social media Friday evening. Structural sequencing demand, not a demand inside talks.

1. Iran state TV red lines published: control of Hormuz + Lebanon truce as non-negotiables. First time state media explicitly listed Hormuz control as a non-negotiable in the talks.

1. $6B frozen assets public contradiction: Reuters/Al-Monitor carried Iranian source claim that US agreed to release. CBS carried senior US official denial. Publicly irreconcilable on Day 2 morning. Bad signal for framework convergence.

1. Iran "10-point plan" maximalist framing: Non-aggression, Hormuz control, enrichment, sanctions lift, UN/IAEA terminations, compensation, US troop withdrawal, Lebanon war halt. Function is public marker-setting; aligned zero with US posture.

1. Dated Brent hit $144/bbl (record) — futures-physical spread doubled from ~$24 to ~$48 in one cycle. "Never seen this disconnect for so long" (analyst consensus). The physical market is screaming supply stress while the paper market pretends ceasefire is real.

1. Araghchi "complete distrust" on arrival (PressTV). Public posture signal that Iran is not showing up to agree.

1. Trump "very poor job" framing + Vance "don't try to play the US": US rhetorical hardening during Day 2 morning news cycle. Public pressure tactic more than policy shift, but it reduces room for US-side concessions.

1. Attack-free Saturday (Apr 11): First day since war start with no new vessel or infrastructure strike reported. But it coexists with the transit collapse — attacks pause, permissions tighten. Same outcome, different instrument.

1. Insurance reinstatement pathway clarification: Lloyd's List/Britannia nuance — cover can technically be reinstated voyage-by-voyage via buy-back + fresh actuarial, but practically this is weeks-to-months after the safety lock releases. Reliable de-escalation signal (P&I re-entry absence) unchanged.

Condition 1 — Price lock: TIGHTENING HARDER (physical dominant). Futures $96 holding on diplomatic optics; dated Brent $144 (record) is the dominant signal. The ~$48 spread is the widest ever observed. Paper market is pricing fiction; physical market is pricing reality. Convergence upward unavoidable unless Hormuz throughput actually normalizes — which is moving the wrong direction.

Condition 2 — Supply lock: TIGHTENING. Petroline -700 kbpd holds; no repair timeline disclosed (Aramco silence = weeks-to-months horizon). Iraq Ceyhan 340 kbpd holds but no further upgrades. GAP 14–15 mbpd unchanged. Saturday Hormuz transit collapse to 2/day (zero oil/gas) is the binding supply event of the cycle.

Condition 3 — Insurance lock: HOLDING — DAY 44 P&I ABSENCE. Technical nuance on reinstatement language (buy-back / voyage-by-voyage) doesn't change the operational signal. LMA clarification (C2) that insurance is downstream of safety remains the framework. No pooled war cover restoration; no political path to one in 2 weeks.

Condition 4 — Labor lock: HOLDING. Crew refusal systematized. 20,000 seafarers on 600+ vessels. No union posture change. VLCC 1-year $93–105K/day reflects structural labor pricing.

Condition 5 — Duration lock: HOLDING / HARDENING. Ghalibaf's preconditions demand signals no short-horizon framework. Araghchi "complete distrust" arrival posture. IRGC 6-month war frame intact. Iran's structural position is incompatible with a 2-week bilateral pause resolving into anything.

Condition 6 — Nuclear lock: HOLDING. Bushehr: last projectile Apr 4 (one plant employee killed); 198 Rosatom staff on-site; auxiliary building damaged; Grossi "deeply concerned." No Saturday incidents.

Condition 7 — Geographic lock: HOLDING / WIDENING. Lebanon formally carved out of US-Iran ceasefire (C2: Vance public). Iran state TV demanding Lebanon truce as red line (C1). 4 active war fronts. Positions are structurally incompatible — Iran cannot drop Lebanon without losing face; US cannot include Lebanon without Netanyahu walking.

Condition 8 — Capability lock: HOLDING. No US minesweepers in theater. Op Maritime Shield not operational. Arhimeda precedent shows IRGC permissioning allied flags only.

Condition 9 — Dual chokepoint lock: HOLDING + STRUCTURAL. Hormuz + Red Sea/Suez disrupted. Qatar LNG 17% lost, 3-5 year structural. Petroline Yanbu dependency creates tertiary chokepoint risk via Bab al-Mandab if Houthis escalate.

Condition 10 — Leadership lock: HOLDING. Mojtaba Khamenei unchanged. Ghalibaf heading 71-member delegation but publicly posting preconditions rather than negotiating. IRGC "no airstrikes" denial (C2) unresolved. Internal Iranian command coherence under strain.

Condition 11 — Energy infrastructure lock: TIGHTENING (silently, via Aramco silence). Petroline repair timeline undisclosed = probably weeks-to-months. Jubail Sadara / Exxon / SABIC / Juaymah + Petroline pump + South Pars + Ras Laffan + Asaluyeh + SAMREF targeting = infrastructure war's cumulative damage now exceeds any ceasefire's reparative scope by years. This is the defining feature of the crisis: damage outlasts diplomacy by 3-5 years on the worst-damaged facilities.

Critical Watch (next 12–24h):

• Islamabad Day 2 formal readout — extension photo (55–65% expected) or precondition walkout (15–20%, elevated vs C2)
• Hormuz Sunday transit count — does the 2-ship floor hold, or does the IRGC open the permission valve as Day 2 optics require?
• Dated Brent trajectory — $144 record or further climb? This is the leading indicator
• Trump rhetoric tempo — escalation toward ultimatum risk (48h? 72h?) if transit count doesn't recover
• Saudi public statement on Petroline repair — any disclosure would anchor expectations
• Netanyahu Lebanon strike tempo during talks — continued strikes = precondition walkout risk
• $6B assets public resolution — does one side retract or clarify, or does contradiction harden?
• IRGC kinetic activity — does attack-free Saturday hold Sunday?
• Iraq NOC further pumping upgrades — any marginal supply relief
• Houthi Bab al-Mandab activity — opportunistic escalation while attention on Hormuz
• China post-Day-2 statement — Beijing has stayed observer-only; any shift is material

Day 43 of the 2026 Iran war — Day 4 of the bilateral US-Iran ceasefire, Day 2 of the Islamabad talks — and the crisis has entered a new phase visible only through a specific data point: S&P Global counted 2 ships through Hormuz on Saturday, and neither was an oil or gas tanker. For the first time since the ceasefire began, the permissioned corridor has contracted rather than expanded during active diplomatic engagement. The pattern Tue–Sat of 11 → 5 → 7 → ? → 2 is definitionally not reopening. It is Iran using the corridor permission switch as real-time leverage over talks substance. Ghalibaf posted his preconditions (Lebanon ceasefire + $6B frozen assets unfreeze) on social media Friday evening, not as demands inside negotiations but as demands that negotiations not commence without them being met — a sequencing ultimatum. Araghchi arrived in Islamabad stating Iran enters "with complete distrust." Iranian state TV published Hormuz control and Lebanon truce as formal red lines. The $6B frozen assets question produced irreconcilable public readouts within 90 minutes: Iranian sources told Reuters the US agreed; a senior US official told CBS Washington denies. This is not a negotiation approaching closure — this is public pressure-testing of whether the other side will concede on positions that are structurally incompatible with their own stated minimums.

The oil market's two halves are telling two different stories and only the physical half is honest. Dated Brent — the price refiners pay for prompt seaborne cargo — hit a record $144 per barrel this week. Front-month Brent futures trade near $96. The ~$48 spread has doubled in a single cycle and is the widest ever observed in energy markets, held for the longest duration, per analyst consensus. The financial market is pricing ceasefire optics; the physical market is pricing "I literally cannot get crude out of the Gulf." Historically futures converge upward to physical, not the reverse, unless the physical shortage itself resolves. And the physical shortage is not resolving: Petroline repair timeline undisclosed after 3 days (Aramco silence implies weeks-to-months), Ras Laffan structural 3–5 year capacity loss hardened, Hormuz Saturday transit collapsed to 2 ships with zero oil/gas, and the bypass recovery from Iraq (+90 kbpd Ceyhan) is ~1/8th of the Petroline loss. Net bypass capacity during the ceasefire is tightening, not loosening. Infrastructure war damage continues to accumulate under the diplomatic cover.

Eleven structural locks remain independent. None show meaningful loosening. The price lock, supply lock, and Hormuz throughput are all tightening; the insurance, labor, duration, nuclear, geographic, capability, dual chokepoint, leadership, and energy infrastructure locks are all holding. The Saturday attack-free day is the cycle's only small positive signal — but it coexists with the throughput collapse, which suggests Iran has substituted throttle-control for overt attack: same outcome (supply disruption), different instrument. Scout assessment: The Islamabad Day 2 readout will arrive into a market that already knows the answer. Extension photo remains the base case (60%) but the Ghalibaf preconditions have raised walkout risk (15%) and lowered substantive framework probability (5%). The most likely path is "extension + no substance + dated Brent climbs toward $150 + futures begin convergence + US-side rhetorical ultimatum within 72–96 hours." The crisis is not resolving; it is consolidating into a structural supply shock that outlasts the diplomatic timeline.

DIFF ANCHORS — C2 (Apr 10 Eve) → C1 (Apr 11 Afternoon)

Key Monitoring — C2 (Apr 11 late afternoon / evening)

1. Hormuz Sunday transit count — does the 2-ship floor hold?
2. Islamabad Day 2 formal readout — extension, walkout, or silence
3. Dated Brent Monday open — does $144 hold, climb, or break?
4. Trump weekend rhetoric — ultimatum escalation risk 48–72h
5. Saudi MBS public statement — still silent? Any direct comment is material
6. Petroline repair timeline disclosure — Aramco silence entering Day 4
7. Lebanon strike tempo during talks — correlated with walkout risk
8. $6B assets public resolution — retraction, clarification, or hardened contradiction
9. IRGC kinetic activity — attack-free Saturday holds Sunday?
10. First toll-paid commercial transit — still zero?
11. China / Russia public positioning — any shift
12. Houthi Bab al-Mandab — Yanbu outflow opportunistic interdiction risk

Scout 🏹 — Hormuz Crisis Tracker Cycle 19 C1 (Day 43 Afternoon, first cycle of Apr 11). CEASEFIRE DAY 4 — TALKS DAY 2 — PROXIMITY FORMAT — PRECONDITIONS GAP — HORMUZ THROUGHPUT COLLAPSED. Five dominant C1 developments: (1) Hormuz transit collapsed to 2 ships on Saturday Apr 11 per S&P Global, NEITHER oil nor gas — lowest daily throughput since ceasefire began Apr 7, sharp break from the 11→5→7 pattern, confirming that the IRGC corridor is tightening under diplomatic cover, not expanding. (2) Ghalibaf formalized preconditions on social media Friday evening: Lebanon ceasefire + $6B frozen Iranian assets unfreeze must happen BEFORE negotiations begin, not within them — sequencing ultimatum. Iran state TV published Hormuz control + Lebanon truce as formal red lines. Araghchi arrived in Islamabad stating Iran enters "with complete distrust." Iran claimed a maximalist "10-point plan" including Hormuz control, enrichment, sanctions lift, UN/IAEA resolution terminations, compensation, US troop withdrawal, Lebanon war halt. (3) $6B frozen assets public contradiction: Iranian source (Reuters/Al-Monitor/PressTV) claims US agreed to release $6B held in Qatar; a senior US official (CBS) denies Washington has unfrozen assets. Publicly irreconcilable on Day 2 morning. (4) Dated Brent hit record $144/bbl while futures remain at ~$96 — futures-physical spread DOUBLED from ~$24 (C2) to ~$48 (C1) and is the widest ever observed per analyst consensus. Paper market pricing ceasefire optics; physical market pricing "cannot get crude out of Gulf." (5) US rhetoric hardened: Trump on Truth Social: Iran "doing a very poor job" opening Hormuz, "better stop" tolls. Vance: "don't try to play the US." Aramco silence on Petroline repair timeline entering Day 4 implies weeks-to-months horizon. Small positive: first attack-free Saturday since war began — though it coexists with the throughput collapse (Iran substituting throttle-control for overt attack, same outcome). Scenario update: collapse (next 14 days) 58% (+8); ceasefire survival 42% (-4); extension + no substance 60% (-8, preconditions raise tail risk); walkout 15% (+5); substantive framework 5% (-2). Eleven structural locks remain independent; price, supply, and Hormuz throughput all tightening; insurance absence Day 44. Scout assessment: extension photo remains base case but the Ghalibaf preconditions raise walkout risk materially; most likely path is "extension + no substance + dated Brent climbs toward $150 + futures convergence begins + US rhetorical ultimatum 72-96h." Infrastructure damage accumulates under diplomatic cover. Next: C2 late Saturday / Sunday AM — formal talks readout, Sunday transit count, dated Brent trajectory, Aramco repair timeline, Lebanon strike tempo.